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Polymarket Weighs KYC Requirements amid Global Crackdown on Prediction Markets

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Polymarket Weighs KYC Requirements amid Global Crackdown on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets platform Polymarket is reportedly considering measures to verify users in response to pressure from global authorities over sanctions violations and other areas of legal risk to the company.

According to a Wednesday report by The Information, Polymarket has considered mandatory user verification requirements more in line with Know Your Customer (KYC) standards. The move comes as multiple countries have blocked or restricted access to the predictions market platform over concerns about illegal gambling.

Source: Polymarket

As of Wednesday, Polymarket had “geoblocked” 35 countries, restricting residents from placing orders on the platform. These jurisdictions included Iran, Russia and North Korea, which are under sanctions from many countries over military conflicts. 

Polymarket users are allowed to operate under pseudonyms, generally preventing the public from knowing their identities and opening the platform to potential legal risks over bets on controversial event contracts. For example, a US soldier was revealed to be the Polymarket user who bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, allegedly using classified information that resulted in a $400,000 payout.

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Related: Polymarket seeks Japan entry despite gambling law hurdles: Report

Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment on The Information report but did not receive an immediate response.

Trump weighs in on federal regulation of prediction markets

US President Donald Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday to express his support for the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) having “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets.

His statements were in line with those of CFTC Chair Michael Selig — Trump’s pick to the regulator — who has filed lawsuits against state-level authorities cracking down on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an adviser to Polymarket.

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The president’s public support for the CFTC came after lawmakers in the US House of Representatives announced a probe into Kalshi and Polymarket, citing the risks of elected officials engaged in insider trading. Polymarket listed several event contracts related to the US-Israel war with Iran.

Magazine: Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies?

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Nio surges 9% after releasing first flagship EV in more than two years

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Chinese electric car company Nio announced May 27, 2026, that former NBA player Yao Ming (R) would be a representative for the brand as it launches the ES9 SUV, a car that CEO William Li Bin (L) touted as the largest SUV in China.

Lintao Zhang | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese electric car company Nio is trying to raise the bar for premium vehicles in a fiercely competitive market.

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The U.S.-listed stock surged 9% Wednesday, sending shares further into the green for 2026, after Nio officially launched its ES9 SUV with prices as low as 390,000 yuan ($57,470) when paying for battery power on a separate, monthly basis.

It reflects the ongoing race to the bottom in China’s electric car market, despite Beijing’s efforts to curb excessive competition, often called involution.

When Nio launched its flagship ET9 sedan in late 2023, prices started at 800,000 yuan. But before deliveries started in the first quarter of 2025, consumer electronics company Xiaomi had launched its first electric car — at 215,900 yuan.

With the new ES9, which Nio claims is the largest SUV in China, deliveries start Thursday.

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CEO William Li showed off an array of features at a launch event in Beijing, from advanced driver-assist systems that can respond to road signs, to passenger seats with wood-colored tables that unfold similarly to those on an airplane. The ES9 also supports an in-car water boiler that lets passengers brew tea.

Nio signed on several brand promoters, including Robin Zeng, the CEO of CATL, the industry’s battery giant, who affirmed in a marketing video that about 2,000 of his employees had bought Nio cars.

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Li also emphasized how the ES9 proactively protects passengers with “smart safety” systems that can detect and minimize impact from dangerous scenarios, and got China’s state broadcaster CCTV to livestream a crash test and other safety features.

Nio delivered 83,465 cars in the first quarter, nearly twice as many as a year ago, but a 33% drop from the fourth quarter. The figure also includes vehicles from Nio’s lower-priced brands Onvo and Firefly, which the company launched in the last two years to remain competitive in China’s sluggish consumer market.

Read more electric car stories

Tesla‘s Model Y was the top-selling SUV in China last month by deliveries, according to industry data site China AutoHome. Elon Musk’s automaker last week received Beijing’s approval to launch driver assist in the country after years of waiting.

Nio’s ES8 ranked 10th in April deliveries across both electric and traditional gasoline-powered cars.

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Foreign automakers are also revamping competition in China’s premium market at lower prices.

Audi on May 8 started presales for its E7X electric SUV with prices starting at 289,800 yuan, and is set to officially launch the car Friday morning. The car is the second model under the German automaker’s new China-focused brand, co-developed with Shanghai’s SAIC, that replaces the four-rings logo with the AUDI letters.

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Oil Prices Slide as Iran Floats Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal With US

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Oil Price Performance

Iranian state television outlined a draft US-Iran framework on Wednesday. It would lift the US naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war commercial traffic within a month.

WTI crude slid 2.7% within 30 minutes of the broadcast hitting social channels. The move dragged US oil futures below $89 per barrel and shook risk assets exposed to Middle East volatility.

Oil Price Performance
Oil Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Inside the Draft Iran-US Hormuz Framework

The state TV report lists six provisions, each reframing how the strait would operate during a proposed 60-day negotiation window.

Under the preliminary terms:

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  • US military forces would withdraw from Iran’s vicinity, and the US Navy would lift its Hormuz blockade.
  • Tehran would restore commercial transits to pre-war levels inside 30 days.
  • Iran and Oman would jointly manage shipping routes, while military vessels remain outside the draft.

If a final deal materializes within 60 days, the agreement would be elevated into a binding UN Security Council resolution.

Iranian outlets framed the memorandum as an “initial unofficial framework.” Tehran cautioned that no steps would follow without tangible verification from Washington.

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Oil and Crypto Markets React to Hormuz Reopening

Crude reacted first. WTI futures traded near $93 earlier in the session. Prices then extended losses below $89 within half an hour of the headlines.

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“WTI oil crashes -2.7% in 30 minutes as Iranian state TV reports a draft US Iran framework that would restore Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping to pre-war levels within one month,” noted Bull Theory.

The Hormuz chokepoint handled roughly 20 million barrels per day before Iran’s restrictions. About 125 to 140 commercial transits crossed daily before the conflict.

Volume collapsed during the blockade. A genuine reopening would unwind one of the largest supply-side inflation impulses hanging over global markets.

Skepticism Around the Iran-Oman Hormuz Arrangement

US and Iranian framings continue to diverge.

  • Tehran emphasizes sovereignty and Iran-Oman strait management.
  • Washington wants free passage without Hormuz transit fees and hard verification of safe passage.

Analysts treat the document as a time-buying ceasefire rather than a final settlement. The Institute for the Study of War describes the approach as phased.

The strait and ceasefire issues move first. Nuclear talks, sanctions relief, and proxy fronts come later.

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In the meantime, traders are pricing a narrow reopening scenario rather than a comprehensive peace deal.

“Here’s the big problem with oil: these days it goes down less when Trump says there is a hint of peace and it goes up much more when there is a rumor of war,” Jim Cramer said recently.

The next 60 days will reveal whether either side can deliver. Until today, those commitments only lived inside a state TV broadcast.

The post Oil Prices Slide as Iran Floats Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal With US appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Mastercard Secures New York BitLicense for Crypto Operations

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Mastercard Secures New York BitLicense for Crypto Operations

Mastercard’s US transaction services unit has received a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), allowing the payments giant to conduct regulated digital asset business activity in the state.

The company announced the license approval on Wednesday, but did not unveil any new consumer-facing crypto products. Instead, Mastercard said it plans to continue developing payment and settlement infrastructure tied to digital assets, focusing specifically on stablecoins and tokenized deposits.

New York’s BitLicense is widely regarded as one of the strictest state-level crypto regulatory frameworks in the United States. Companies offering certain crypto-related financial services to New York residents are generally required to obtain the license.

Mastercard joins a growing list of companies that have recently secured a New York BitLicense as regulatory clarity around digital assets continues to evolve in the United States.

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Earlier this year, crypto financial services company Galaxy received approval to expand its institutional digital asset offerings in the state. Bitcoin payments company Strike, led by Jack Mallers, obtained both a BitLicense and money transmitter licenses to support its Bitcoin (BTC) focused payment services in New York.

Source: Mastercard

The BitLicense isn’t Mastercard’s first crypto-related expansion in New York. In February, MetaMask introduced a Mastercard-enabled payment card in the state that allows users to spend crypto directly from their self-custodied wallets at merchants that accept Mastercard.

Related: Mastercard launches crypto partner program with a ‘who’s who’ of industry

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Mastercard deepens both stablecoin and tokenization efforts

The BitLicense approval follows Mastercard’s recent acquisition of the stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK, valued at up to $1.8 billion. Expected to close later this year, the transaction included up to $300 million in performance-based payments and is aimed at strengthening the payments processor’s ability to connect traditional payment networks with blockchain-based transactions.

The acquisition came months after crypto exchange Coinbase and BVNK mutually agreed to end takeover discussions.

Earlier this month, Mastercard also said it completed its first cross-border US Treasury transaction on the XRP Ledger, underscoring the company’s growing focus on tokenized financial assets. Excluding stablecoins, the tokenization market is currently valued at more than $33.8 billion, according to industry estimates.

Total RWA market size. Source: RWA.xyz

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Related: Crypto Biz: Wall Street wants more than just Bitcoin

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Surge in Bitcoin miner inflows to Binance as BTC stalls

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin’s on-chain dynamics have shifted as miner activity shifts balance with exchange liquidity. In a notable move, BTC miner inflows to Binance surpassed 20,000 coins for just the second time this year, renewing focus on whether the market can sustain a rebound above the $75,000 area or slip into a broader corrective phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha highlighted that roughly 21,000 BTC were moved to Binance on May 18, a level close to the 23,150 BTC sent on February 5. Such transfers are typically associated with miners seeking to convert revenue into fiat to cover operating costs, creating potential near-term selling pressure. Yet the market reaction so far has remained comparatively orderly, with the latest data showing only modest continuation rather than a sudden cascade.

Over the same window, Binance’s BTC reserves climbed to nearly 634,000 BTC by May 26, from about 618,600 BTC on May 6, according to on-chain tracking. The reserve expansion occurred without triggering a sharp downside breakout, suggesting a more tempered risk environment than some traders anticipated.

On-chain analytics from Glassnode reinforce a narrative of cooling momentum rather than panicked selling. The realized profit/loss ratio sits around 1.56, well below the 2–5 range often observed during stronger bull phases. This indicates a more balanced mix of realized gains and losses, consistent with a period of cautious buying conviction rather than exuberant risk-taking.

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Glassnode also noted a softening in spot demand over the past couple of weeks. After Bitcoin rejected near the $80,000–$81,000 zone, spot volume delta slid back into net-seller territory. The takeaway: if BTC is to mount a decisive move higher, fresh spot demand will likely need to re-enter to underpin any sustained rally. Without that, the market risks drifting into the same choppy, seller-dominated conditions that capped upside earlier in the year.

“If BTC is going to push meaningfully higher from here, spot demand likely needs to step back in. Without that, the market risks drifting back into the same choppy, seller-dominated conditions that capped upside earlier in the year.”

Related coverage has also framed the price context around a critical price band. Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory still hinges on holding above the $75,000 level, which has functioned as a robust demand zone through May and aligns with a neckline-like support on the daily chart.

Key takeaways

  • Miner-to-exchange transfers exceeded 20,000 BTC for the second time this year (about 21,000 BTC on May 18), signaling ongoing mining economics but stopping short of a panic-driven dump.
  • Binance’s BTC reserves rose to roughly 634,000 BTC by May 26, up from around 618,600 BTC on May 6, with no decisive downside follow-through observed yet.
  • Realized profit/loss momentum cooled to about 1.56, indicating more modest buying interest relative to late-stage bull-market phases.
  • Spot demand has weakened as BTC faltered after testing the upper ranges; a convincing upside move may require renewed spot buying strength to avoid a repeat of prior volatility patterns.
  • Technical setup centers on the $75,000 zone; a potential head-and-shoulders pattern with a right shoulder around $78,000 could shape the near-term path, while a break below $75,000 risks testing the mid-$70,000s support.

Miner flows and exchange liquidity in a cautious climate

The May 18 miner outflow to Binance in the vicinity of 21,000 BTC punctuates a familiar theme: miners often turn to exchanges to monetize revenue or cover costs, which can translate into near-term selling pressure. The proximity of the February 5 spike to a similar magnitude underscores a recurring pattern in periods of tight mining economics or grid/network stress. However, the subsequent market response appears more constrained than in prior episodes. By late May, Binance’s growing reserves provided a buffer against abrupt price shocks, suggesting that the market absorbed the added supply without triggering an accelerated pullback.

From an exchange-liquidity perspective, the expansion in reserves accompanies a broader observation: a robust exchange stockpile can cushion a market-wide sell-off, but it also signals the potential for higher supply in a congested period if other buyers do not step in. As such, traders will watch whether reserve growth persists or if reserve withdrawals emerge, signaling a different dynamic in the flow of coins between miners, exchanges, and buyers.

Momentum and demand: on-chain signals temper the panic

The on-chain narrative aligns with a period of tempered market energy. The realized P/L ratio, a measure of the aggregate profits relative to losses realized on the network, sits within a cooler band around 1.56. That’s notably below levels seen in stronger bull moves, where the ratio often climbs well above 2, suggesting an aggressive retracing of valuations rather than a broad, confident upmove.

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Spot-demand momentum has also softened. After a rebound attempt from a dip, spot volume declined, nudging the delta toward net selling territory. In practical terms, this means that, without supportive buying from spot markets, BTC may struggle to sustain a meaningful ascent beyond key resistance levels. The takeaway for traders is to monitor whether new spot demand returns, particularly from institutions or funds that anchored recent liquidity in the market.

Analysts emphasize that the health of the market’s momentum will likely hinge on whether spot buyers reenter with conviction. If demand remains constrained, the risk of a drawn-out correction or a late-cycle consolidation grows, even if miners continue to supply coins to exchanges from time to time.

Chart thesis: key levels and what could trigger the next move

From a higher-timeframe perspective, Bitcoin’s trend remains tethered to the $75,000 level. This price acts as a notable anchor, intersecting with the neckline of a pattern some analysts view as a potential head-and-shoulders formation. The proposed right shoulder has begun forming around the $78,000 region after repeated attempts to push beyond the $80,000–$81,000 area failed to consolidate into a durable rally.

A momentum lens supports a cautious stance: the daily RSI has hovered below the neutral 50 mark, signaling limited upward strength during recent rebounds. If BTC cannot sustain a move above the $75,000 threshold, the next meaningful support comes into view near $70,400, a level that can be read as a more consequential test of demand and the ability of buyers to reassert control.

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Analyst notes highlight the permeability of the current setup around the $74,500 area as a critical juncture. This zone aligns with the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s 21-day Donchian channel, a metric used to identify short- to mid-term trend support and breakout zones. Holding near this lower band often indicates buyers defending a range-bound market, while a breakdown could signal mounting downside pressure and a shift in near-term sentiment.

In a recent assessment, a Bitcoin researcher flagged that the composite trend signal had shifted back into a “high bear” configuration following a three-week reversal from May’s highs near $82,500. With BTC trading just above the $74,500 band, the $74,500–$75,000 region now sits squarely at the center of market focus, where the balance between supply pressure and demand support will be tested in the days ahead.

What to watch next

The immediate path for Bitcoin hinges on two intertwined threads: miner-for-exchange flows and spot demand re-acceleration. If miners continue to monetize through exchanges, the market will rely on fresh buyers to absorb supply. Conversely, a revived wave of spot demand could relieve the immediate selling pressure and push BTC toward higher ranges, potentially challenging the $80,000 barrier again.

As always, investors should monitor the interplay between on-chain activity and price comovement, staying alert to shifts in exchange reserves, the pace of miner outflows, and the behavior of spot traders as macro headlines and market sentiment evolve. The data points in May suggest resilience in the face of pressure, but the next move will largely depend on whether demand returns with enough vigor to sustain a breakout above the pivot zone around $75,000.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Struggles To Hold $75K As Investors Pivot To Stocks, AI

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Bitcoin Struggles To Hold $75K As Investors Pivot To Stocks, AI

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000 marks a sharp decoupling from a record-breaking stock market fueled by the AI boom.
  • Crypto trader sentiment remains weak as key US regulatory acts face ongoing delays.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rejection at $78,000 on Thursday marked a decoupling from traditional markets after two months of strong correlation. Wednesday’s decline below $75,000 happened while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index jumped to an all-time high.

The factors behind Bitcoin’s underperformance are unlikely to fade in the near term, reducing the odds of a bullish breakout above $82,000.

Russell 2000 Index (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The US small-cap Russell 2000 Index reached a record high on Wednesday, signaling that traders are not particularly worried about the macroeconomic environment. Despite the war in Iran nearing the 3-month mark, strong earnings momentum in the artificial intelligence sector has contributed to generalized optimism in the stock market.

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The exact rationale behind the weaker demand for Bitcoin might never emerge, but it likely includes recent BTC reserve sales by publicly listed miners and their subsequent pivot toward AI infrastructure. The latest example includes TeraWulf (WULF US) announcing the addition of a 1-gigawatt high-performance computing capacity in Kentucky.

Pro-crypto regulation stalls

Further bearish sentiment emerged after Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT US) transferred 2,650 BTC, worth $205 million at the time, to a cryptocurrency exchange address on Friday, according to Lookonchain data. The media conglomerate controlled by President Donald Trump’s family had previously accumulated 11,542 BTC at a cost basis above $118,500.

The lack of regulatory progress in the legislature has also negatively affected traders’ sentiment. The Digital Asset PARITY Act overhauls cryptocurrency taxation by exempting mining and staking rewards from being taxed until sold. The proposal was formally introduced in May, but is not yet scheduled for hearings or votes.

Similarly, the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act awaits a full Senate floor vote, but no official date has been set. The bill creates a comprehensive market structure framework for digital assets, dividing oversight between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), while complementing the already-passed GENIUS Act for stablecoins.

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Fed policy trajectory puzzles investors 

Investors likely anticipated a stronger balance sheet expansion from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), expecting continued US Treasury buying and additional liquidity for the markets. However, the prevailing trend from previous months faded in April as the Fed’s total assets stabilized.

US Federal Reserve total assets, USD billion. Source: St Louis FED

The Fed’s decision to act more cautiously was likely driven by a surge in oil prices, which raises inflation. Expansionary measures could further exacerbate the issue and negatively impact economic growth. The Fed’s total assets have remained stuck near $6.7 trillion since April 15. 

Bitcoin’s weak performance also contrasts with a massive surge in demand for AI infrastructure companies.

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Related: Bitcoin price lags bullish US tech stocks–Is there a silver lining?

Top 7-day gains among world’s 100 largest assets. Source: 8marketcap

Memory chipmakers SK Hynix (000660 KS) and Micron (MU US) surged past a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time ever, joining multiple stocks that gained 20% or more over the past week alone. 

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Top Talent Is Leaving the EF. What Happens to ETH Now?

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Top Talent Is Leaving the EF. What Happens to ETH Now?


🎙️ Listen to Interview 📺 Watch Video… Read the full story at The Defiant

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PAC Lauds Texas Primary Wins, Says it will ‘Aggressively Back’ Pro-Crypto Candidates in Future Races

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PAC Lauds Texas Primary Wins, Says it will ‘Aggressively Back’ Pro-Crypto Candidates in Future Races

After six Republican and Democratic candidates supported by cryptocurrency-backed interest groups won primaries for US House of Representatives and Senate seats in Texas, one of the biggest political action committees (PACs) said it would “aggressively back leaders” supporting crypto policies in the future.

On Tuesday, candidates notched six wins for congressional runoff primaries in Texas, supported by media spending and endorsements by the crypto industry-affiliates Fairshake, Defend American Jobs, Protect Progress, Blockchain Leadership Fund and Fellowship PACs.

Democrat Christian Menefee primaried incumbent Al Green for Texas’ 18th congressional district and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton won against incumbent Senator John Cornyn with more than 63% of the vote. Four other Republican candidates — Tom Sell, Alex Mealer, Jon Bonck and Carlos De La Cruz — also won in smaller districts after being the beneficiaries of thousands of dollars in media spending by Defend American Jobs.

Source: Follow The Crypto

US Federal Election Commission (FEC) records showed more than $10 million combined was spent on supportive media and ads by the crypto-aligned PACs for the six candidates. The Fairshake PAC alone reported more than $193 million in its war chest as of January. Following its spending in the 2024 election cycle, the PAC said it would use the funds to support pro-crypto candidates in the 2026 midterms.

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“Rep. Green’s defeat proves that anti-crypto hostility carries real electoral consequences, making him the first Democratic incumbent this cycle to lose his seat,” said Fairshake spokesperson Geoff Vetter. “Fairshake was the difference-maker in this race, and we will continue to aggressively back leaders like Rep. Menefee across the country.”

Six states offer next test for PACs

On June 2, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota will hold primaries for Democratic and Republican candidates for US House and Senate seats as well as several gubernatorial races.

As of Wednesday, FEC records showed about $500,000 on spending by Protect Progress to support Democrats across the six US states: $55,000 for Mike McGuire for California’s 1st congressional district, $54,000 for Lou Correa for California’s 46th, $53,000 for Ted Lieu for California’s 36th, $56,000 for Lateefah Simon for California’s 12th, $55,000 for Zoe Lofgren for California’s 18th, $54,000 for Dave Min for California’s 57th and $163,000 for Rob Menendez in New Jersey’s 8th congressional district.

Related: Trump backs CFTC authority over prediction markets

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With the recent scandal and resignation of California gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell, the so-called jungle primary for governor, also on June 2, has widened the field to a variety of Democratic and Republican candidates.

Candidates for California governor. Source: CBS News

California’s jungle primary is a system where all candidates for an office, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same primary ballot. The top two vote-getters then advance to the general election, even if they are from the same political party.

In 2024, Fairshake spent about $10 million on incendiary ads targeting Democrat Katie Porter as part of her run for US Senate in California. Porter lost her 2024 primary, but is on the ballot next Tuesday as a California gubernatorial candidate, raising the question of how the crypto industry will respond to her race.

Vetter told Cointelegraph in April that the PAC doesn’t “comment on strategic decision-making, including whether to enter or not enter a race,” referring to Porter’s candidacy. Cointelegraph sought comment from Porter’s campaign but did not receive an immediate response.

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As of Wednesday, no FEC filings appeared to show crypto PAC spending on ads opposing Porter or other gubernatorial candidates. However, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen told Politico in December that he would contribute $39,200 to Porter’s campaign and the same amount to support Republican Steve Hilton.

At last look on Wednesday, bets on prediction market Polymarket favored Hilton and Xavier Becerra, at 86% and 80%, respectively. Porter had a 1% chance to advance to one of the two spots in November’s general election.

Magazine: Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies?

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CFTC Charges Google Employee with Insider Trading on Polymarket Using Search Data

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo allegedly earned $1.2M trading on Polymarket using confidential search data.
  • Spagnuolo traded under the handle “AlphaRaccoon,” placing bets on 23 Google Year in Search event contracts.
  • The CFTC filed a civil complaint seeking penalties, disgorgement, and a permanent ban on Spagnuolo’s trading activities.
  • Federal prosecutors unsealed a parallel criminal complaint against Spagnuolo on the same day as the CFTC filing.

A Google software engineer faces federal charges after allegedly using confidential company data to profit on prediction markets.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a complaint on May 27, 2026, against Michele Spagnuolo, a Switzerland-based Google employee.

Spagnuolo allegedly traded event contracts on Polymarket.com using nonpublic information about Google’s 2025 Year in Search results.

The CFTC is seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties, and a permanent trading ban.

How Spagnuolo Allegedly Used Google’s Nonpublic Data

Spagnuolo worked as a software engineer at Google during the relevant period. Through his role, he gained access to sensitive, nonpublic data tied to Google’s official 2025 Year in Search list. That access came with a duty to keep the information confidential and not use it for personal gain.

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Between October and December 2025, Spagnuolo reportedly traded on at least 23 event contracts on Polymarket. He bought “Yes” or “No” shares on contracts like “#1 Searched Person on Google this year.” His accuracy across those trades was described as near-perfect.

Operating under the Polymarket handle “AlphaRaccoon,” Spagnuolo allegedly generated around $1.2 million in profits. That level of return, across dozens of contracts tied to nonpublic search data, drew regulatory attention.

The CFTC’s complaint was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The agency is seeking trading and registration bans, along with a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act.

Criminal Charges Filed in Parallel by Federal Prosecutors

On the same day the CFTC announced its complaint, federal prosecutors moved separately. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York unsealed a criminal complaint against Spagnuolo. The criminal charges mirror the conduct alleged by the CFTC.

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CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig addressed the case directly. “The Commission will not tolerate fraud, manipulation, or insider trading, regardless of the technology or platform that is used,” Selig said. His remarks pointed to prediction markets as an area of active regulatory focus.

David I. Miller, Director of Enforcement, reinforced that position. “Employees who are entrusted with confidential business information cannot misappropriate that information for personal financial gain,” Miller stated.

He described the Division as actively policing insider trading across prediction markets and other markets within CFTC jurisdiction.

Miller also noted the broader scope of the effort. “The Division is a cop on the beat in policing the illegal use of inside information in the prediction markets,” he added. That framing positions this case as part of a wider enforcement pattern, not an isolated action.

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The CFTC credited the U.S. Attorney’s Office for its assistance in the matter. Together, the civil and criminal actions mark one of the more prominent insider trading cases tied to prediction market activity to date.

The case sets a clear precedent for how regulators view the misuse of proprietary data in emerging contract markets.

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HTX denies UK sanctions tied to Russia

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HTX denies UK sanctions tied to Russia

HTX denies UK sanctions allegations after the Foreign Office accused affiliate Huobi Global S.A. of funnelling $1.5 billion to Russia.

Summary

  • HTX says UK sanctions apply only to Huobi Global S.A. and do not affect its operating exchange.
  • The Foreign Office accuses the affiliate of funnelling $1.5 billion to Russia through A7 and Garantex.
  • Global Ledger separately traced more than $7.6 billion in Russia-linked flows through the exchange since 2021.

HTX denies UK sanctions allegations after the Foreign Office accused affiliate Huobi Global S.A. of funnelling $1.5 billion to Russia. New data flags $7.6 billion in linked flows.

The UK government designated 18 entities in a Tuesday sanctions package targeting Russia’s “A7” shadow finance network. HTX said the action applies only to Huobi Global S.A. as a separate legal entity.

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Why HTX is pushing back on the UK sanctions package

In a post on X, HTX argued its operating exchange runs separately from Huobi Global S.A. and that user funds remain unaffected. The company said it would engage directly with UK authorities on the designation.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the package targets “crypto and illicit finance networks” exploited by Russia. The FCDO cited “reasonable grounds to suspect” Huobi Global provided financial services to A7 Limited Liability Company and Garantex Europe OU.

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“If the Kremlin thinks it can evade our sanctions by hiding behind crypto networks and shadow financial systems, it is gravely mistaken,” Cooper said in announcing the designation.

The sanctions trigger UK asset freezes and prohibit British firms from processing payments tied to the designated entity. HTX is one of the largest exchanges ever directly hit by a Western government, with $3.3 trillion in 2025 trading volume.

How the $7.6 billion Global Ledger finding lands

A blockchain analytics report from Global Ledger, shared with reporters Wednesday, traced more than $7.6 billion in Russia-linked flows through HTX. The analysis used multi-year on-chain tracing of Bitcoin, Ether, and Tether on Tron.

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Global Ledger head of investigations Vladyslav Syrotin said the firm flagged transactions as high-risk using internal risk scores above 70 on a 0-to-100 scale. The threshold captures sanctioned entities, darknet markets, and other illicit typologies.

The report also flagged exposure tied to Huione Group, Nobitex, Hezbollah-linked addresses, and North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The findings suggest HTX’s compliance issues may extend beyond Russia.

TRM Labs separately traced $4.9 billion in direct on-chain transfers from HTX to UK-designated entities since 2021. The Foreign Office said the broader A7 network claimed to have moved over $90 billion last year, roughly half of Russia’s annual military expenditure.

What the case signals for crypto exchange compliance

The designation marks the first time the UK has applied banking-style sanctions to a global crypto exchange, requiring British firms to freeze funds and trace transactions linked to the platform.

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Several major exchanges issued advisories to users this week about heightened compliance checks on HTX-related transfers, following the FCDO action and earlier coordinated moves against Garantex and Grinex.

HTX has been under separate UK pressure since February, when the Financial Conduct Authority began High Court proceedings against Huobi Global over allegedly illegal promotion of crypto services to UK consumers.

Justin Sun, the Tron founder and HTX global adviser, has not been personally designated. The A7A5 ruble-backed stablecoin tied to the network has moved more than $6 billion despite earlier US sanctions, according to prior Financial Times analysis.

The case extends a broader tightening on Russian-linked crypto rails. Earlier this year, the Grinex exchange shut down after a $13 million hack blamed on “foreign intelligence services.”

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Bitcoin on the ropes at $75,000 as AI token rally fizzles: Crypto Markets Today

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Bitcoin on the ropes at $75,000 as AI token rally fizzles: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market is at a critical point on Wednesday, with bitcoin priced close to the $75,000 level of support after failing to break through $78,000 on Tuesday.

Ether’s (ETH) chart tells a similar story. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was rejected off $2,150 on Tuesday, and fell toward the $2,000 support level. It bounced off $2,050 at 05:30 UTC on Wednesday and was recently trading around $2,080.

AI tokens RENDER, FET and NEAR gave back much of their gains from Tuesday’s rally, falling between 1% and 3% since midnight UTC.

The U.S. stock market continued to diverge from crypto on Wednesday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both hitting record highs after adding about 0.3%.

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Crucially, bitcoin is now below Bitmine (BMNR) Chairman Tom Lee’s line in the sand at $76,000, which, he said, would signal the end of a bear market if BTC were to end the month above that level.

Derivatives positioning

  • Crypto futures volume jumped 54% to $201 billion in 24 hours, while liquidations surged 87%. The massive percentage gains largely reflect the market waking up after an extended U.S. holiday lull rather than a structural shift in activity levels.
  • Bitcoin dropped 1% over the last 24 hours as open interest climbed to 740K BTC from 704K BTC, a combination that typically confirms a price downtrend. The negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) shows traders are aggressively shorting via market orders while funding rates remain neutral.
  • Ether’s open interest hit a record high 15.57 million ETH alongside negative CVD. It may be that traders are shorting contracts in anticipation of deeper price loss. This follows a technical breakdown of the bullish trendline that has supported the market since February, opening the door for deeper losses.
  • Open interest in ZEC futures dropped for a third day to 2.30 million tokens as the price slid toward $564. The simultaneous drop in both price and open interest suggests that earlier bullish bets are being closed out rather than new short positions being opened.
  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) rose nearly 3% to 37.35%, marking its first gain in 10 days and a bounce from yearly lows. A continued rise would signal that the market is finally paying up for protection against a potential price swoon.
  • Deribit data shows the $55,000 September put is the most traded contract of the past 24 hours. It represents a bet that bitcoin will fall significantly by the end of that month. Most activity has been clustered around downside protection at various strikes between $70,000 and $76,000.

Token talk

  • The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) fell 2.2% since midnight UTC following losses across the AI sector. The DeFI Select Index (DFX) also struggled on Tuesday, losing 1.5%.
  • One bright point is hyperliquid (HYPE). The perpetual exchange’s native token formed a new record high this week and is continuing to show strength on Wednesday, surging by 5.5% since midnight UTC.
  • There was also a notable gain for monero (XMR), up by 5% on Wednesday as it retests Monday’s high around $400.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator also increased to 36/100, demonstrating relative strength among a few select altcoins despite broader market weakness.

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