Crypto World
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein says
In this photo illustration, Apps for online prediction market sites are shown on an electronic device on Feb. 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.
Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in market volume year-to-date — more than the $51 billion in total prediction market volume in all of 2025.
Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, according to Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a note last week called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote.
While prediction market volumes initially jumped in 2024 around the U.S. presidential election, they eventually surpassed those levels in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts became popular.
$1 trillion by 2030
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total market volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.
Chhugani expects increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will boost the potential market, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling more liquidity. The makeup of traded contracts is also likely to change, he said.
A Polymarket advertisement in a subway station in New York, US, on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“We expect [the] institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” he wrote. While sports contracts make up more than 60% of trading volume today, he sees that being cut in half by 2030. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”
While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, new names are building a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all starting or have already launched their own prediction market verticals, Bank of America’s Hoover said.
Public proxies
Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the key public market proxies for the private prediction market companies, Chhugani said. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi total volume. The market is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing business, and could encourage Robinhood to develop its own exchange, the analyst said.
While Chhugani’s long-range estimates assume the resolution of long-term regulatory risk, in the near-term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are engaged in a pitched battle. “Legal action is now pending in 14 states, plus another 4 congressional bills [are] also pending amid concerns around insider trading,” Hoover wrote.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Ting Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Some states have begun legal action against prediction markets, citing their authority to regulate sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is fighting states, claiming it has the only authority to regulate prediction markets.
Still, Chhugani has faith that this won’t derail the multi-year outlook.
“Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” he wrote.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.
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Coinbase is reportedly in talks with Anthropic to gain access to Claude Mythos Preview, the AI company’s restricted frontier model with advanced cybersecurity capabilities.
The outreach, first reported by The Information, reflects growing urgency among crypto exchanges to defend against increasingly sophisticated AI-driven threats.
Project Glasswing Raises the Stakes for Crypto
Anthropic launched Project Glasswing in early April 2026, a defensive cybersecurity initiative giving select partners limited access to Mythos.
The model identified thousands of previously unknown zero-day vulnerabilities during testing, including a 27-year-old flaw in OpenBSD and a 16-year-old bug in FFmpeg.
Founding partners include Amazon Web Services, Apple, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, and Palo Alto Networks. Over 40 additional organizations maintaining critical software also received access.
Anthropic committed $100 million in compute credits and $4 million to open-source security groups for the program.
For Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, the timing is significant. The platform dealt with a major insider breach in 2025 that exposed personal data of roughly 70,000 users after overseas support agents were bribed by criminals.
Coinbase refused a $20 million ransom demand and instead posted a matching bounty for information leading to arrests.
Anthropic’s own research has shown that AI agents can autonomously exploit smart contract vulnerabilities, generating millions in simulated stolen funds.
That finding indicates why exchanges may view Mythos access as essential rather than optional.
Mythos will not reach general availability. Anthropic plans to integrate its capabilities into future Claude releases with strengthened safeguards.
Post-preview pricing sits at $25 per million input tokens and $125 per million output tokens.
Whether Coinbase secures formal partnership status or broader Glasswing access remains unclear.
The exchange already uses Claude for customer support operations across more than 100 regions.
The post Coinbase Reportedly Courts Anthropic to Bolster Exchange Security Infrastructure appeared first on BeInCrypto.
The SEC granted accelerated approval to FINRA’s rule change eliminating the Pattern Day Trader designation and its $25,000 minimum equity requirement for day traders.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday approved FINRA’s proposed rule change eliminating the Pattern Day Trader designation, the $25,000 minimum equity requirement, and all related day-trading buying power provisions under FINRA Rule 4210. The accelerated approval removes longstanding restrictions that have governed retail day trading for decades.
The SEC simultaneously approved new intraday margin standards requiring broker-dealers to monitor and address real-time risk exposure in customer margin accounts. The regulatory shift represents a substantial change to day-trading accessibility and compliance frameworks for retail investors in U.S. equity markets.
Sources: WatcherGuru | WatcherGuru
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Ken Griffin, chief executive officer of Citadel Advisors LLC, at the Semafor World Economy Summit during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, April 14, 2026.
Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Tuesday that the global economy is headed toward a recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for much longer.
“Let’s assume [the strait is] shut down for the next six to 12 months — the world’s going to end up in a recession,” Griffin said on stage at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, D.C. “There’s no way to avoid that.”
As a result, the world is going to see a massive shift toward alternative fuel sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, he added. To be sure, the hedge fund leader thinks the consequences of the war would have been worse if the U.S. delayed any strikes until Iran’s military capabilities had grown.
Stocks have managed to rebound back to where they were before the U.S. first attacked Iran in February, but the optimistic sentiment among investors is contingent on the duration of the war in the Middle East. Many expect risks of an escalation in tensions between the two countries are not at all priced into the market.
Global economies especially in Asia remain vulnerable to spikes in oil prices, which remain elevated at around $100 a barrel. That’s off their highs during the conflict, but remain far above where they were before the war, at just below $70 a barrel.
Paxos Labs has raised $12 million in a strategic funding round led by Blockchain Capital to expand its Amplify platform, a suite of tools that lets companies offer crypto yield, lending and stablecoin issuance through a single integration.
The Amplify suite includes three modules — Earn, Borrow and Mint — allowing platforms to generate yield on digital assets, enable crypto-backed loans and issue branded stablecoins with a single integration designed to unlock additional features over time.
According to Tuesday’s announcement, the platform provides a single SDK with configurable controls, while Paxos Labs manages liquidity, counterparty vetting and backend operations, and shares a portion of generated revenue with integrating partners.
The company said partners including Aleo, Hyperbeat and Toku are already using the platform, with Hyperbeat reporting more than $510,000 in assets under management since launching on April 9. The raise also included participation from Robot Ventures, Maelstrom and Uniswap.
Paxos Labs operates as an incubated unit within Paxos, which has processed more than $180 billion in tokenization volume for institutional clients, according to the company.
The launch targets platforms already offering crypto custody or trading, positioning the tools as a way to turn passive digital asset balances into active, revenue-generating financial products.
Related: Coinbase USDC revenue may multiply 7x as payments grow, Bloomberg says
Crypto platforms expand yield and lending offerings for user-held assets
Crypto platforms have been expanding beyond custody and trading as they look to generate additional revenue from user-held digital assets.
In March, Kraken integrated a structured products platform from STS Digital, enabling options-based strategies designed to generate fixed returns on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). Also last month, Coinbase introduced a tokenized share class of its Bitcoin Yield Fund on its Base network, offering institutional investors onchain access to yield-bearing crypto exposure.
Both crypto exchanges also offer yield on stablecoin deposits, allowing users to earn returns on assets that would otherwise remain idle, including through integrations with onchain lending markets.
Institutional-focused providers are also extending lending against assets held in custody. In February, Anchorage Digital said it would work with Kamino and Solana Company to let institutions borrow against staked Solana (SOL) without moving assets, while in March, Lombard teamed up with Bitwise Asset Management to offer yield and borrowing against Bitcoin using onchain lending infrastructure.
Meanwhile, debate over yield-bearing crypto products has extended into policy discussions centered around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a proposal that aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the US.
The American Bankers Association said Monday that allowing stablecoin yield could accelerate deposit outflows from smaller banks, pushing up funding costs and reducing local lending.
Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns
Benjamin Cowen has spent years saying things people don’t want to hear. No hype, paid promotions, or promises of the next 100x altcoin. In a space where opinions are routinely bought and sold, he has built one of crypto’s most trusted voices on a simple, uncomfortable truth:
“It’s hard to find people in this space whose opinions aren’t paid for. A lot of times, their opinions are actually paid for.”
What makes that statement land differently coming from Cowen is where he came from — and what he carried with him on the way.
The Lab That Built Benjamin Cowen
Before hundreds of thousands of subscribers knew his name, Benjamin Cowen was deep inside a university laboratory, studying radiation damage through molecular dynamics and transmission electron microscopy.
From 2013 to 2018, his world was defined by peer-reviewed papers, strict advisers, and the kind of intellectual rigour that doesn’t tolerate shortcuts. By the time he defended his dissertation, he had around ten to eleven published papers to his name.
That foundation, he says, is everything.
“I don’t really think I had that strong of a work ethic before grad school. But then I went to grad school and I had to work really, really hard. If you’re running an experiment, it doesn’t care if you’ve already worked forty hours that week. You still got to go in and deal with it.”
Graduate school changed him. The lab doesn’t close because you’ve already put in forty hours. You show up anyway. That lesson never left.
Culture Shock: From Academia to the Crypto
When Cowen started his YouTube channel, IntoTheCryptoverse, the transition from academia to crypto felt natural in one sense — and deeply jarring in another. The work ethic translated perfectly. The culture did not.
“In my world, you don’t talk to people like that. In academia, everyone’s really respectful and professional. People aren’t tweeting back at each other at 3:00 a.m. with really mean insults.”
For a while, it got to him. A single negative comment could overshadow ten positive ones and linger for the rest of the day. He kept showing up anyway. Five, six, sometimes eight or nine videos a week. Applying the same publishing discipline learned in grad school to a medium moving at an entirely different speed.
The breakthrough came gradually. He realised that in crypto, you’re either a bull or a bear. There is no neutral ground that pleases everyone.
“It really doesn’t matter what I say — there will be a certain amount of people that just don’t like what I say regardless.”
Once he accepted that, the comments lost their power. Today, two to three years into that mindset shift, Benjamin Cowen barely dwells on criticism at all.
One Ethics Stayed Constant
Through it all, what kept him grounded wasn’t the channel, the analysis, or the portfolio. It was something far simpler.
“The biggest form of wealth is family, in my opinion. I would give up every Bitcoin I’ve ever owned for my family.”
In a space that constantly tempts people to define their worth by their holdings, that kind of clarity is rarer than it sounds. It also explains something deeper about why his audience keeps coming back — not for price predictions, but for perspective from someone who has never confused the market with what actually matters in life.
Benjamin Cowen didn’t stumble into crypto in search of a get-rich-quick story. He arrived with a scientist’s mind, an academic’s discipline, and the integrity to say what the data shows, even when nobody wants to hear it.
In an industry that rewards hype, that turned out to be his greatest edge.
The post From NASA to Crypto: The Unlikely Journey of Benjamin Cowen appeared first on BeInCrypto.
TLDR
- HYPE climbed above $45 for the first time in five months after gaining more than 20% in one week.
- Oil perpetual contracts ranked among the most traded assets on Hyperliquid during the price rally.
- Crude Oil generated over $840 million in 24-hour volume and became the third most traded market.
- Brent Crude Oil recorded more than $360 million in daily volume and ranked fifth on the exchange.
- HIP-3 daily trading volume reached about $5.4 billion in late March, led by commodity contracts.
HYPE advanced to nearly $45 early Tuesday, marking its highest level in five months. The token gained over 20% during the past week as trading volumes expanded. Oil-linked perpetual contracts drove much of the activity on Hyperliquid.
The token later eased to about $43.4 at press time. However, it held most of its weekly gains as traders stayed active. The recovery followed renewed focus on commodity markets listed on the exchange.
HYPE Price Rally Aligns with Commodity Trading Surge
HYPE climbed sharply as traders increased activity across builder-deployed markets on Hyperliquid. The token reached nearly $45 before trimming gains later in the session. It still traded firmly above late January levels.
The weekly advance exceeded 20%, reflecting stronger participation on the platform. Oil contracts ranked among the most traded assets during the rally. This trading momentum coincided with higher open interest across new perpetual listings.
Hyperliquid operates a permissionless listing structure under its HIP-3 framework. Outside developers can launch perpetual markets directly on the exchange. The protocol describes HIP-3 as a move toward decentralized perp listings.
This structure expanded the range of available markets beyond digital assets. Commodity and equity-linked contracts gained traction in recent weeks. As a result, overall trading activity shifted toward these instruments.
Market data showed builder-deployed markets topping $1.2 billion in open interest during March. Oil and equity futures contributed heavily to that figure. These contracts became central to daily trading flows on the platform.
Crude Oil emerged as one of the busiest contracts on Hyperliquid. The contract generated over $840 million in 24-hour volume. It ranked as the third most traded market on the exchange.
Brent Crude Oil also attracted strong participation from traders. The contract recorded more than $360 million in 24-hour volume. It ranked fifth among all listed markets.
Oil Frenzy Under HIP-3 Lifts HYPE Visibility
Trading activity accelerated during volatility tied to the US-Iran conflict. Traders used perpetual markets to react before traditional exchanges reopened. This dynamic increased volume across oil-linked contracts.
A March report from The Wall Street Journal detailed rapid volume growth. Cumulative oil futures volume jumped from $339 million to $7.3 billion within days. Traders favored nonstop markets during heightened geopolitical tension.
This surge extended beyond oil alone and covered other commodities. HIP-3 daily volume reached about $5.4 billion in late March. Silver, WTI, Brent, and gold contracts led that activity.
TLDR
- Kraken confirmed that it confidentially filed for an initial public offering, according to co-CEO Arjun Sethi.
- The company secured a $13.3 billion valuation in April, down from its $20 billion peak in late 2025.
- Arjun Sethi said Kraken plans to offer institutional-grade trading tools to retail users.
- Kraken obtained a master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for direct dollar settlement access.
- Deutsche Börse agreed to invest $200 million for a 1.5% fully diluted stake in Payward Inc.
- Kraken disclosed insider-related security incidents that affected about 2,000 accounts without compromising client funds.
Kraken confirmed it confidentially filed for an initial public offering, according to co-CEO Arjun Sethi. He disclosed the move on Tuesday at the Semafor World Economy summit in Washington, D.C. The filing follows a prior pause in listing plans as its valuation fell to $13.3 billion.
Kraken Advances IPO Plan as Valuation Adjusts
Kraken confirmed it submitted a confidential IPO filing, and Arjun Sethi announced the update during a public event. He spoke at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, D.C., and addressed earlier reports. The company had paused earlier listing plans after crypto markets weakened and trading volumes dropped.
The San Francisco-based exchange secured a $13.3 billion valuation in an April funding round. That figure marked a decline from its $20 billion peak recorded in late 2025. The round included backing from Citadel Securities and reflected changing investor sentiment.
Sethi said Kraken wants to expand institutional-grade trading tools to retail clients. He compared the company’s goals to services offered by Jane Street and JPMorgan Chase. He stated, “We aim to bring institutional-grade tools to retail users,” while outlining product ambitions.
Kraken recently obtained a master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The account grants direct access to U.S. payment systems, including Fedwire. This access allows dollar settlements without intermediary banks, though it excludes interest on reserves and lending facilities.
Deutsche Börse Investment and Insider Security Incidents
Deutsche Börse disclosed a $200 million investment in Kraken through a secondary share purchase. The transaction grants a 1.5% fully diluted stake in Payward Inc, pending regulatory approval. The companies expect the deal to close in Q2 2026.
The investment expands a partnership announced in December 2025 between Kraken and Deutsche Börse. The collaboration targets regulated crypto trading, derivatives, tokenized assets, and institutional liquidity services. Both firms said the agreement seeks to connect traditional financial infrastructure with digital asset markets.
Kraken also reported two insider-related security incidents involving support staff. The employees accessed limited client data through internal systems without authorization. About 2,000 accounts, representing 0.02%, were affected, and no client funds or trading systems were compromised.
A criminal group later attempted extortion, claiming it possessed internal videos linked to the incidents. Kraken refused to pay and revoked access for the responsible individuals. The company notified affected users and cooperated with law enforcement while strengthening internal controls.
Galaxy Digital reported a separate cybersecurity incident during the same week. The firm disclosed unauthorized access to a development environment. It stated that no client data or funds were impacted by that breach.
Crypto World
Popular DeFi platform CoW Swap warns users to stay away from its site after security breach
CoW Swap, a decentralized trading interface, said Tuesday it temporarily halted its services after detecting a domain name system (DNS) hijacking incident affecting its website, underscoring ongoing security risks at the front-end layer of DeFi platforms.
In a post on X, the team said the attack occurred at 14:54 UTC and warned users to avoid interacting with its interface until further notice. While the protocol’s underlying infrastructure, including its backend and APIs, was not directly compromised, both were paused “as a precaution” as the team worked to resolve the issue.
DNS hijacking allows attackers to redirect users from a legitimate domain to a malicious lookalike site, often with the goal of draining crypto wallets or harvesting private data. The attack vector has become a persistent weak point in decentralized finance, where users typically rely on web-based interfaces to access otherwise secure smart contracts.
CoW Swap operates as a decentralized exchange aggregator, sourcing liquidity across venues and using a mechanism known as “Coincidence of Wants” to match trades directly between users or batch them for more efficient execution. Orders are handled by competing “solvers” that optimize trade outcomes, a design intended to reduce slippage and limit exposure to maximal extractable value (MEV).
MEV is a practice on the blockchain where bots reorder transactions to extract profit at users’ expense, making mitigation key to ensuring fair pricing and protecting traders.
The platform is governed by CoW DAO, a decentralized autonomous organization spun out of the Gnosis ecosystem. The project has positioned itself as a user-protective alternative in DeFi trading, emphasizing execution quality and fairer trading outcomes.
“We are now actively working to resolve the situation. Please continue to refrain from using swap dot cow dot fi until we confirm that it is safe to use,” the team wrote on X.
Read more: DEX Aggregator CoW Swap Targets 33% Trading Boost With Collaboration Feature, More Rewards
TLDR
- Tim Draper expects the Bitcoin price to reach $250,000 within the next 18 months.
- He links his forecast to growing global adoption and weakening fiat currencies.
- Draper first attempted to acquire Bitcoin when it traded at $4 through a mining partnership.
- He later lost his Bitcoin holdings during the collapse of Mt. Gox exchange.
- In 2014, he purchased Bitcoin at $632 per coin during a US Marshals auction.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper has renewed his projection that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within 18 months. He shared the forecast in a recent public statement and linked it to rising adoption trends. He also cited the weakening of fiat currencies as a driver of future demand.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Long-Term Target
Draper stated that he expects the Bitcoin price to climb to $250,000 within 18 months. He said growing usage will fuel the projected rise. He added that weakening fiat currencies will also boost demand.
He said, “I have reason to believe that Bitcoin will reach $250k in 18 months.” He linked his view to broader use cases across global markets. He maintained that expanding adoption will sustain the rally.
Draper acknowledged that some past forecasts did not meet timelines. However, he said he continues to stand by his current target. He stressed that he bases his outlook on adoption data and currency trends.
He previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 within three years. He made that call shortly after buying confiscated coins in 2014. The asset later met that target within the projected period.
Early Bitcoin Mining and Mt. Gox Losses
Draper said he first attempted to acquire Bitcoin when it traded at $4. He partnered with Peter Viscenne to mine the cryptocurrency. They ordered mining chips from hardware maker Butterfly Labs.
However, Draper alleged that Butterfly Labs used the chips to mine for itself. He said the company delayed shipping the hardware. By the time they received the equipment, Bitcoin traded above $30.
Draper later lost his holdings during the collapse of Mt. Gox. The exchange served as the leading Bitcoin trading platform at that time. Despite the failure, the Bitcoin price remained resilient.
He said, “It turned out that Bitcoin was being used for remitting money.” He added that people used it to pay unbanked employees and create new economies. He said these use cases supported price stability.
In 2014, Draper purchased Bitcoin through a US Marshals auction. Authorities had seized the coins from the Silk Road marketplace. He paid $632 per coin during that auction process.
Shortly after the purchase, Draper predicted a $10,000 Bitcoin price within three years. A television host reacted with confusion during the interview. The asset later reached that level within the timeframe.
Draper admitted that later price targets were less accurate. However, he reiterated confidence in his current forecast. He again pointed to adoption growth and fiat currency erosion as key factors.
Japan’s e-commerce giant Rakuten is adding XRP to its Rakuten Pay app, allowing its 44 million users to use Ripple’s cryptocurrency as a payment method with more than 5 million merchant locations across the country.
In an announcement via X on Tuesday, Tatsuya Kohrogi, Ripple’s senior ecosystem growth manager, said Rakuten is also enabling its users to spot trade XRP via the app. He said they will also be able to purchase XRP with Rakuten points and hold it in their Rakuten Wallet.
The move ties XRP into one of Japan’s largest loyalty systems, where more than 3 trillion points—worth roughly $23 billion—are in circulation and can now be converted into XRP, Kohrogi said.
“Starting April 15, Rakuten Wallet will launch XRP as both a listed asset and a payment method, meaning users can buy XRP directly with Rakuten Points and charge their Rakuten Cash with XRP to spend it at over 5 million merchant locations across Japan,” Kohrogi said, calling the development “one of the most significant XRP milestones.”
The Ripple executive also said Rakuten is one of Japan’s most trusted consumer brands. “The fact that XRP is now embedded into its loyalty and payments infrastructure is a powerful signal of where digital asset adoption is heading,” he added.
Rakuten began allowing users to spend bitcoin, ether and bitcoin cash in 2023. In 2021, the Japanese e-commerce giant announced the launch of its own Rakuten Coin, a token it said would be used as part of its points-based loyalty rewards system.
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