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Private credit’s cracks spark a new tug of war with Wall Street banks

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This is the start of a big crisis for private credit, says Verdad's Rasmussen

Wall Street, Manhattan, New York.

Andrey Denisyuk | Moment | Getty Images

Wall Street banks may finally be getting a long-awaited opening to claw back market share from private credit lenders.

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After a decade in which private credit lenders grew rapidly and took over a large share of financing for leveraged buyouts, signs of strain in that sector, along with easing bank rules, may now be shifting the balance.

“This is an opportune time for banks to regain market share from private credit funds,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC in an email.

“Interest rates have declined and banking regulation has eased. Private credit lenders are also struggling with the fallout from their previously aggressive lending,” he highlighted.

Private credit’s rapid ascent was fueled in part by banks’ retreat. Following the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and the 2023 banking crisis, lenders tightened underwriting and pulled back from riskier deals. Borrowers, particularly private equity firms, increasingly turned to direct lenders offering faster execution and looser terms.

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The tug of war is just starting. The rules have been relaxed, so it’s only natural that banks want to get back some of their market share in private credit.

Jeffrey Hooke

Johns Hopkins Carey Business School

At its peak, the shift was dramatic. According to PitchBook data, banks’ share of buyout financings above $1 billion fell to just 39% in 2023, down from about 80% in the five years prior. That share has since recovered to just over 50% in 2025.

And the tide may be turning further.

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Private credit is facing mounting challenges. Years of aggressive lending are starting to backfire, as higher interest rates make it harder for heavily indebted borrowers to repay loans and increase default risks. Investor demand for liquidity is also rising, with some clients seeking to pull money after years of locking up capital.

Moody’s Zandi expects the sector to “experience more credit problems in the coming months,” citing fallout from geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs and structural pressures in industries such as software. Consumer and healthcare borrowers may also come under strain.

Regulatory changes offering tailwinds

Over the medium term, regulatory changes could also further tilt the playing field. 

“Our anticipation of deregulation from the Trump administration includes a likely weakening of the Basel III Endgame implementation, with the U.S. Treasury explicitly aims to redirect business lending back into the banking sector,” Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer at Neuberger Berman, told CNBC via email.

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The Basel III “Endgame” framework is a regulatory overhaul finalized in 2017 in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. It was designed to standardize how large banks calculate risk and to establish a capital floor that requires lenders to hold more reserves against loans, particularly higher-risk corporate and leveraged lending.

This is the start of a big crisis for private credit, says Verdad's Rasmussen

That has made bank lending less competitive versus private credit funds in recent years, said market veterans.

A weakening or reversal in the Basel III Endgame will raise competition for private credit lenders, Saccocia added, a stance echoed by other market veterans.

“Banks should quickly fill any void left by more cautious private credit lending, said Zandi, pointing to a more favorable regulatory backdrop and improving funding conditions for traditional lenders.

Recent Federal Reserve proposals to adjust the regulatory capital framework could “position banks to be more competitive on the lending front in hopes of regaining at least some share of their original commercial banking foothold,” noted Lukatsky.

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Recent deals, such as the multi-billion-dollar leveraged loan financings for Electronic Arts and Sealed Air, signal a strong appetite among banks to execute “jumbo” transactions when market conditions allow.

Private credit still competitive

However, private credit’s grip is far from broken just yet. Direct lenders continue to compete aggressively, offering unitranche loans that bundle different types of debt into one package at a single interest rate.

Blackstone and Ares, for example, were among 33 lenders that reportedly provided about $5 billion in financing to back investment firm Thoma Bravo’s acquisition of logistics company WWEX Group, underscoring how private credit firms can still fund large buyout deals even as banks begin to re-enter the market.

Pitchbook’s global head of credit and U.S. private equity Marina Lukatsky noted that the expected rebound in buyouts and dealmaking has yet to materialize this year, as uncertainty around trade policy, interest rates and geopolitics has slowed activity. With fewer deals taking place, demand for financing has declined across both banks and private credit.

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For banks to make a meaningful comeback, borrowing costs in syndicated loans, which are large loans arranged by banks and funded by a group of lenders, need to become more competitive, she added. Additionally, large buyout activity needs to pick up, and the broader economic outlook needs to improve.

Crucially, private credit retains structural advantages that are difficult for banks to replicate, including speed, certainty of execution and flexible conditions, which some borrowers may continue to value in volatile markets, noted some experts.

That said, a comeback is on the cards.

“The tug of war is just starting,” said Jeffrey Hooke, senior lecturer in finance at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School 

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“The rules have been relaxed, so it’s only natural that banks want to get back some of their market share in private credit.”

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Crypto World

Charles Schwab Announces Rollout of Spot BTC and ETH Trading for Retail Clients

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Charles Schwab Announces Rollout of Spot BTC and ETH Trading for Retail Clients

The $12 trillion brokerage will begin a phased rollout of Schwab Crypto, offering direct spot BTC and ETH trading to retail investors in the coming weeks.

Charles Schwab announced the planned launch of its spot crypto trading platform, Schwab Crypto, in a press release today, April 16. The platform offers Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) trading to Schwab’s retail clients from within the existing platform, alongside traditional investments.

The phased rollout of the platform begins in the coming weeks, and will let Schwab’s existing brokerage customers buy and hold BTC and ETH directly within their accounts, without leaving the platform. Trading will be priced at 75 basis points, per the release. The platform will also provide educational content and analysis.

Schwab first announced that it would offer retail crypto trading a year ago, stating at the time that the platform would by mid-April 2026.

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The move marks a strategic shift from Schwab’s previous indirect crypto exposure through ETFs, funds, and derivatives.

In today’s release, Schwab said that it plans to add more cryptocurrencies to the platform in the future. The brokerage also noted that it plans to enable deposits and withdrawals in the future, implying that the current product only allows for crypto buying and selling within Schwab platform.

Charles Schwab Premier Bank, SSB, (CSPB) will provide crypto custody for clients, while the bank has tapped Paxos for trade execution services and sub-custody, per the release.

“With Schwab Crypto, investors can access familiar cryptocurrencies within an all‑in‑one investing and banking experience, backed by an ecosystem of education, tools, resources, and support so they can make informed decisions about how crypto might fit into their broader investing goals,” Schwab’s head of digital assets, Joe Vietri, was quoted as saying in the release.

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Last November, U.S. neobank SoFi re-launched its spot crypto trading product, making it the first U.S. FDIC-insured and nationally chartered bank offering retail clients crypto trading alongside its traditional banking and investing services.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

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Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) treaded water at Thursday’s Wall Street open as the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stays locked on $74,000 after its local highs preceded a new record for the S&P 500.

  • Analysis warns that the US midterm elections may impact the stock rally.

  • Bitcoin could follow the Nasdaq 100 higher, a trader suggests.

BTC price tripped after fresh highs from the S&P 500

Data from TradingView showed $74,000 continuing to form an intraday BTC price focus.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US jobless claims came in marginally below expectations at 207,000 versus 213,000, pointing to the labor market withstanding current geopolitical and inflation pressures.

These followed a new record for the S&P 500, which crossed 7,000 points for the first time in history after Bitcoin hit two-month highs.

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Commenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that the S&P had advanced by nearly 11% in the past 11 trading sessions.

“It ranks as the fifth quickest recovery to record highs following a deep pullback,” it wrote in its latest “Mosaic Chart Alerts” update. 

“The S&P closed firmly above the 7,000 level for the first time in history despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East that sparked a 9% drawdown in the index into late March.”

S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold dipped to intraday lows and WTI crude oil eyed $94 per barrel as markets awaited further cues over the US-Iran war.

QCP, meanwhile, warned that seasonal trends could still end the stock rally as the US entered midterm elections. The S&P 500, it noted, “tends to find its peak about now ahead of mid-term elections, and then recovering during the final quarter of the year.”

“I would not base any investment decision or outlook based on seasonals alone, which is why I’m also watching confirmation from breadth,” it cautioned.

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S&P 500 seasonality data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Trader sees “opportunity” in Bitcoin versus Nasdaq

With BTC price action finding resistance near its range highs, market participants eyed exchange order-book liquidity for clues as to where the next showdown could come.

Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis

“The price bucket at $72.2K – 72.4K has a large amount of open interest that has slowly accumulated,” Shubh Varma, CEO of crypto data platform Hyblock, told Cointelegraph on the day.

“We’ve seen this level where traders are often active, entering and exiting. Most recently, about $100 million longs and shorts opened here, bringing the total close to $400 million at that price bucket, over the last seven days (on Binance stablecoin perps).”

Varma added that this could form “an area to watch as potential support if price revisits it, as many of these longs and shorts may exit at breakeven ‘psychological’ level.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract open interest data. Source: Hyblock

Continuing the stocks theme, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe flagged Bitcoin’s relationship with the Nasdaq-100 index as a cause for optimism going forward.

“Bitcoin is about to follow Nasdaq,” he told X followers. 

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“The reason for this is quite simple: the correlation has been significantly strong most of the time. This period? The weakest correlation in the past 10 years.”

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq 100 futures one-week chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Van de Poppe eyed a “tremendous opportunity” for Bitcoin buyers, having recently seen a similar bullish setup in Bitcoin versus gold.