Quick Summary

• President Trump announced a 10-day extension for the pause on strikes targeting Iran’s energy facilities, setting an April 6 deadline for Iranian compliance.
• Bitcoin declined more than 3% during Thursday’s session before stabilizing above the $69,000 mark.
• The Nasdaq Composite experienced a 2.4% decline Thursday, marking approximately a 10% retreat from its peak recorded in January.
• The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes surged to 4.43%, with market participants increasingly pricing in potential Federal Reserve rate increases instead of cuts.
• Brent crude oil prices exceeded $103 per barrel amid heightened anxieties over potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Digital assets experienced a partial recovery Thursday following President Trump’s announcement that he would postpone military action against Iranian energy facilities. The declaration provided temporary respite to financial markets that had suffered significant declines earlier in the trading session.

Via his Truth Social platform, Trump stated: “As per Iranian Government request… I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days.” He further indicated that diplomatic negotiations are “ongoing” and “going very well.”

The Islamic Republic now faces an April 6 deadline to meet American requirements before potential strikes on its electrical infrastructure would recommence.

The leading cryptocurrency had plummeted over 3% earlier during Thursday’s trading. Following the president’s social media announcement, it rallied approximately 1% from session lows and stabilized just north of $69,000.

Alternative digital currencies similarly rebounded from their intraday troughs. Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano all posted modest gains from their lows but continued trading 3% to 5% below levels from 24 hours prior.

Equity Markets Face Continued Volatility

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index tumbled 2.4% during Thursday’s session. The benchmark has now retreated roughly 10% from its late January high.

Futures contracts for U.S. equities posted modest advances Friday morning. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures each appreciated approximately 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched up 0.1%.

Neverthstanding these gains, upward momentum remained constrained. Market participants maintained a defensive posture as skepticism surrounding any permanent diplomatic resolution sustained elevated uncertainty levels.

Fixed Income Yields and Crude Oil Advance

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed as high as 4.43% Thursday, advancing from levels below 4% registered just weeks ago. It moderated slightly to 4.41% by the session’s conclusion.

This pronounced increase has virtually eliminated market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. Certain traders are now positioning for potential rate hikes instead. Comparable dynamics are unfolding across Western European sovereign debt markets.

Energy commodity prices also escalated. Brent crude futures traded above the $103 per barrel threshold. West Texas Intermediate approached $96. Both advances occurred as hostilities persisted throughout the Middle East region and apprehension intensified regarding potential interruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market observers are monitoring whether the geopolitical confrontation could persist deep into April.

Emerging reports indicate Iranian leadership remains hesitant to engage in direct negotiations with Washington, despite reviewing an American diplomatic proposal. This prevailing uncertainty continues exerting pressure on financial markets entering the weekend.

US Representative Maxine Waters has asked the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City to explain its decision to approve Kraken Financial’s limited-purpose master account. 

Her request puts fresh attention on how crypto-linked firms may gain access to the US payment system and what safeguards apply when the Federal Reserve reviews those applications.

Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, sent a letter to Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday. She asked him to respond by April 10 with details on what Kraken’s approval allows in practice and which Federal Reserve services the company can use.

She also asked what conditions or limits apply to the account. Her letter requested information on anti-money laundering checks, consumer protection reviews, and the legal basis behind the approval process.

Kraken Financial received a limited-purpose master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City earlier this month. The move drew attention because crypto-linked firms have sought direct Federal Reserve access for years.

The account could give Kraken access to Fedwire, the Federal Reserve’s main payment network. That system allows institutions to move funds on the same core rails used by banks and credit unions across the United States.

Waters said the public notice left important questions unanswered. In her letter, she wrote that the Kansas City Fed’s announcement “does not disclose specific information” about Kraken’s access to Federal Reserve financial services because of “the confidentiality of business information provided by applicants.”

Waters said direct access to the Federal Reserve’s payment system raises policy, regulatory, and consumer protection questions. She argued that the Federal Reserve must show that any approval follows the law and applies the same standards to all applicants.

She wrote that “answers to these questions are critical” to ensure the approval process works “with impartiality” and supports “a safe and efficient payment system.” Waters also said new activity in digital assets, tokenization, payments, and artificial intelligence is moving faster than many existing laws.

Crypto firms continue push for master accounts

Kraken is not the only crypto-linked company seeking this type of access. Custodia Bank, Anchorage Digital Bank, and Ripple’s Standard Custody & Trust Company have also pursued Federal Reserve master accounts.

Waters has often taken a cautious position on crypto policy. Advocacy group Stand With Crypto lists her as “strongly against crypto,” citing past statements and votes against crypto legislation. Her latest letter now places the focus on transparency in how the Federal Reserve handles crypto-related account approvals.

U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded seven straight days of outflows with over $390 million leaving the funds. 

According to data from SoSoValue, the 10 spot ETH ETFs saw $92.54 million in net outflows on Thursday, March 26, primarily led by BlackRock’s ETHA with $140.24 million in outflows. The investment manager’s staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB) managed to offset a large portion of the outflows as it drew in $96.81 million on the day.

Following the outflows yesterday, these investment products have now seen redemptions for the seventh consecutive day, with a combined $391.65 million flowing out.

Before this streak, the ETFs recorded a six-day inflow run in which they drew in over $386 million. This suggests that institutional traders could be withdrawing from the market amid expectations of a prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran, destabilizing risk assets.

A part of this activity may also come from capital rotation into BlackRock’s ETHB, which offers investors native staking yields unlike the standard spot ETFs that simply track the price of the underlying asset. The firm previously noted that it would waive a portion of sponsor fees to remain competitive for the initial $2.5 billion in assets. 

Besides this, investors have also been rotating capital from these ETFs towards traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and other precious metals as oil prices continue to retain upward pressure, sparking fears of global inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

On the monthly scale, the ETH ETFs are close to completing their 5th straight month of net outflows that began in November last year, with nearly $2.85 billion in total exits.

Ethereum price has fallen over 45% from its year-to-date high to $1,815 in late February amidst the persistent ETF outflows and broader market downturn triggered by the U.S.-Iran war, rising energy costs, and diminished expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. At press time, Ethereum price was trading at $2,065, down 2.7% over the past 24 hours.

Market analysts, such as Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat and Chairman of Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, have called a market bottom for Ethereum, aligning with the firm’s aggressive accumulation of Ether as it advances towards its 5% target of the total circulating supply. 

This comes as Ethereum balances on exchanges have fallen to an all-time low, a sign of accumulation, whether by retail investors or institutional giants such as Bitmine, likely positioning for much higher prices.

David Sacks has ended his 130-day term as the White House’s crypto and AI czar, but he is staying involved in technology policy through a new advisory post. 

The change keeps him close to the administration’s work on AI and digital assets while expanding his role to cover a wider set of technology issues.

Sacks said his time limit as a special government employee had been reached. Under US rules, special government employees can serve only 130 days during a 12-month period, which ended his formal term in the crypto and AI czar role.

He said he will now serve as co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, known as PCAST. The council is a federal advisory group that gives policy recommendations on science and technology matters to the White House.

Sacks said the new position will overlap with his previous work because council members will “study issues together” before sending recommendations to regulators. Fox Business also reported that a senior White House adviser said, “David will always be his crypto and AI czar,” while the broader role lets him advise on other major technology issues.

Sacks plans to keep supporting the administration’s AI policy framework released on March 20, 2026. That framework called for a more unified national approach to AI rules and backed a lighter federal structure instead of a state-by-state system.

During his time in office, Sacks helped lead the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. The group’s report, released in July 2025, laid out recommendations for digital asset regulation and was prepared under the White House order that created the working group.

He was also tied to the administration’s broader AI policy work. He took part in changes to Biden-era AI chip export rules and remained involved in the White House push for a national AI strategy.

PCAST lineup points to a wider tech focus

The White House said PCAST includes major technology leaders such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Oracle’s Larry Ellison, AMD CEO Lisa Su, and others. The council is expected to advise on artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

That makeup suggests the council may focus more broadly on AI, computing, and national technology strategy, even as crypto remains part of Sacks’ portfolio. Sacks said one concern is the “patchwork of regulation” created when states take different approaches, adding that the president wants “one rulebook.”

Today, BTC/USD is trading slightly below the psychological $70k level. Assessing its price action since the panic on 5 February, it is reasonable to suggest that the market is showing signs of range-bound behaviour: sellers tend to emerge near $75k, while buyers become active around $65k.

This balance between supply and demand, where neither side has been able to take control for several weeks, may feel either tiring or calming; however, the price chart suggests there are reasons for concern.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

On 18 March, analysing Bitcoin’s price action within a broad descending channel, we:

→ noted signs of buying pressure, which led to the formation of an intermediate ascending channel (shown in blue);

→ suggested that buyers were pushing sellers out of the $70–72k zone, which could act as support.

However, the price soon reversed lower from the psychological $75k level, and the highlighted zone failed to provide support. Bulls retreated and showed an inability to defend the gains marked by the first arrow.

A similar lack of strength was observed later:

→ As indicated by the second arrow, on Monday, 23 March, Bitcoin surged sharply following statements by Donald Trump regarding negotiations with Iran.

→ However, the previously mentioned $72k level acted as resistance, and yesterday’s decline once again reflects a retreat by buyers.

As a result, there are grounds to conclude that bulls are struggling to sustain momentum, increasing the risk of a bearish breakout below the lower boundary of the blue channel. This level is particularly important because:

→ the blue channel may be interpreted as a bearish flag pattern;

→ a breakdown of this pattern could pave the way for a continuation of the prevailing downtrend, which has been in place since autumn 2025.

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Bitcoin holders with large balances continued to accumulate BTC, adding a notable 61,568 coins over the past month as geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty persisted around the globe. Data from Santiment shows the surge came alongside a broader shift in on-chain activity: whales and sharks (addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) increased their holdings by about 0.45%, while wallets with less than 0.01 BTC expanded by roughly 0.42%, equating to an extra 213 BTC in the smaller cohort over the same period.

Bitcoin exchange outflows noted through March, a sign that holders appear more inclined to accumulate than to cash out, even as markets grapple with risk-off dynamics tied to geopolitical headlines and macro uncertainty. In a recent X post, Santiment framed the data as a potential indicator of a forthcoming move, suggesting that whale accumulation during a consolidation phase often precedes a breakout.

Key takeaways

• Large Bitcoin holders added 61,568 BTC over the last 30 days, signaling sustained accumulation among the top address tier.
• Whales and sharks (10–10,000 BTC) rose their holdings by about 0.45%, while ultra-small wallets (<0.01 BTC) grew by roughly 0.42% (about 213 BTC) during the same period.
• On-chain data suggests ongoing Bitcoin exchange outflows through March, reinforcing the view that holders are more inclined to accumulate than to sell.
• Analysts see whale accumulation during consolidation as a potential precursor to a breakout, though retail activity may drift with fear-driven dynamics.
• Market sentiment remains in extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering around single-digit scores, highlighting a cautious to risk-off atmosphere.

Whales loading up as macro risk persists

Cointelegraph. “Small wallets chase momentum during uptrends, reflecting a fear of missing the next leg up.”

“Whales tend to buy in waves, so accumulation could continue if the range holds and macro conditions stay supportive. On the other hand, if retail FOMO overheats, we could see a pause or slight sell-off before the next accumulation phase.”

Those observations echo a broader market narrative: large-volume players appear to be positioning for a breakout, while retail participants exhibit mixed signals—drawn by upward price moves yet restrained by broader risk concerns. The age-old tension between accumulation and distribution within the crypto market remains a central theme for traders watching key support and resistance levels.

Fear, greed, and market timing amid geopolitical pressures

Market structure, timing, and what comes next

Looking ahead, investors should watch for a decisive move beyond the current range combined with continued on-chain signals. While the latest data hint at possible upside, the path remains contingent on macro stability and how geopolitical tensions resolve or intensify in the coming weeks.

Key Takeaways

• On March 25, a federal judge in California granted class certification in an investor lawsuit against Nvidia and its CEO Jensen Huang
• Plaintiffs allege the company concealed more than $1 billion in graphics card sales to cryptocurrency miners, misrepresenting them as gaming revenue between 2017 and 2018
• In 2022, Nvidia settled with the SEC for $5.5 million over inadequate disclosure of crypto mining’s influence on gaming segment sales
• The certified class includes all NVDA shareholders who purchased shares from August 10, 2017 through November 15, 2018
• A case management hearing is scheduled for April 21 through Zoom; shares traded at $174.03, declining 2.5%

Nvidia (NVDA) was trading at $174.03, down 2.50% at the time of writing.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Shares declined following a California federal court decision that brought the extended cryptocurrency revenue litigation significantly closer to reaching trial.

The Foundation of the Legal Challenge

The central accusation is clear-cut: Nvidia communicated to shareholders that its gaming graphics card revenue was expanding because of increased purchases from video game enthusiasts. However, this narrative omitted critical information.

Throughout the 2017 cryptocurrency surge, Ethereum mining operations were purchasing GeForce graphics cards in massive quantities. This demand was silently responsible for a substantial portion of what Nvidia classified as “gaming” revenue.

Quarterly sales surged by 52% followed by 25% year-over-year during these timeframes. The plaintiffs contend that shareholders were completely unaware of how much revenue depended on cryptocurrency activity.

When Bitcoin collapsed in 2018 and mining operations became economically unviable, demand for GPUs plummeted. Gaming segment revenue declined sharply, and the cryptocurrency-fueled basis of the prior growth became unmistakable after the fact.

Nvidia’s own fourth quarter FY2019 earnings discussion compounded the issue. Company executives explicitly attributed the revenue decline to the cryptocurrency mining collapse — a statement that directly conflicted with how they had characterized the earlier expansion.

SEC Enforcement Action Preceded This Lawsuit

The Securities and Exchange Commission acted before this civil case gained momentum. In May 2022, Nvidia agreed to a $5.5 million settlement after regulators determined the company had inadequately disclosed how cryptocurrency mining materially affected gaming GPU sales during the second and third quarters of fiscal 2018.

The commission’s enforcement division stated that Nvidia’s disclosure shortcomings prevented investors from accessing information essential for proper business evaluation.

Nvidia resolved that enforcement action without admitting guilt — a framework that allowed the company to maintain its legal position while essentially confirming the underlying factual claims.

The current civil litigation continues from where the SEC action concluded. The question is no longer whether disclosure failures occurred, but rather who bears financial responsibility.

Plaintiffs further contend that Nvidia personnel were actively monitoring cryptocurrency market movements and linking them to GPU sales performance in real time during those reporting periods. This evidence, they assert, demonstrates that executive-level statements regarding gaming demand were deliberately misleading — not merely incomplete.

On March 25, Judge Haywood Gilliam approved certification for the investor class — encompassing all individuals who purchased NVDA shares between August 10, 2017 and November 15, 2018. This decision is procedural in nature and doesn’t establish whether Nvidia’s disclosures constituted fraud.

A case management conference has been set for April 21 through a publicly accessible Zoom webinar.

Nvidia responded: “Investors who purchased NVIDIA in the 2017-2018 timeframe have done incredibly well, as our corporate strategy unfolded as we consistently predicted. We will address the complaint in court.”