Crypto World
Prosecutors find drafts of secret deal linking Milei to LIBRA, Hayden Davis
A confidential blockchain advisory agreement between Libra co-creator Hayden Davis and Argentinian president, Javier Milei, has been discovered on a suspect’s phone during the country’s ongoing investigation into the collapse of the LIBRA token.
That’s according to La Nación and sources familiar with the results of a January 9 report led by the Public Prosecutor’s Office (MPF).
The department’s computer experts reportedly recovered multiple copies of the agreement from Mauricio Novelli’s seized phone. The document appeared in exchanges between himself and Davis as various drafted iterations before the final version was signed by Milei.
The Argentinian president reportedly still denies the existence of the “confidential agreement” that cemented Davis’ role as the country’s blockchain advisor and, in turn, his association with LIBRA’s launch on February 14, 2025.
Novelli is part of a group of lobbyists, alongside Manuel Terrones Godoy and Sergio Morales, who allegedly helped launch and profited from LIBRA’s collapse.
Read more: Javier Milei disbands crypto unit he set up to investigate himself
Prosecutor Eduardo Taiano said that the MPF’s findings mean that the undersecretary of presidential affairs, who reports to Milei’s sister, General Secretary Karina Milei, will now have to confirm whether or not she has copies of the secret agreement.
The report also found Novelli played a key role in organizing the LIBRA launch and maintained contact with both Milei and his sister, Davis, Terrones Godoy, Morales, and Julian Peh, the CEO of the KIP protocol, which helped launch the token.
Multiple messages between Novelli and other parties were also found to have been deleted, but some messages were recovered after forensic extraction.
“All individual conversations and those related to WhatsApp groups made up of Novelli, Terrones Godoy and Sergio Morales were found to be empty or had been deleted,” analysts claimed.
One exchange involved Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson who accused Terrones Godoy of demanding a five-figure sum of money to meet Milei.
Hoskinson was promised “magical things will happen,” but refused the offer.
Hayden Davis-linked wallets sent $1M USDC after signing deal
Argentinian outlet Clarín revealed that Milei had signed a “confidential agreement” with Davis 15 days before the launch of LIBRA. It was subject to a non-disclosure agreement and required Davis to provide unpaid blockchain advice “ad honorem.”
Davis would “provide professional support, in line with global trends in decentralization and technological modernization, ensuring the highest quality and confidentiality at every stage of the advisory process.”
On the day it was signed, two payments of USDC worth roughly $1 million, were sent from Davis-linked wallets to the wallet of 75-year-old Orlando Rodolfo Mellino, a retiree with no real address, who then sent the funds to a wallet linked to Novelli.
Read more: LIBRA case judge orders full disclosure of Javier Milei bank accounts
La Nación reports that after a year, the investigation into LIBRA has been carried out at varying speeds, and has witnessed delays in key areas, such as the disclosure of the report into Novelli’s devices. It adds that Milei is yet to hire a lawyer to represent himself.
Meanwhile, Davis appeared to be walking free as of December 2025. Crypto analytics firm Bubblemaps recently claimed that Davis had made $15 million from Pump Fun’s private token sale just six months after LIBRA’s launch.
However, Bubblemaps then deleted its findings after Pump Fun’s pseudonymous CEO, Alon Cohen, called it defamatory “misinformation.” He said, “No one from the team ever spoke to the guy, I didn’t even know he existed until after the scandal.”
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Yield-bearing stablecoins are growing faster than the broader stablecoin market, according to Messari, as Washington remains divided over how crypto-linked yield should be treated under US law.
Yield-bearing stablecoins have outpaced the growth of the broader stablecoin market 15-fold over the past six months, according to a Messari research report published on Thursday.
The increase was driven by a 198% rise in the market cap of Circle’s USYC (USYC), a 169% increase in Paxos’ Global Dollar (USDG), a 114% rise in the value of the Tron DAO-linked Decentralized USD (USDD), and a 91% rise in Ondo Finance’s Ondo US Dollar Yield (USDY). The overall stablecoin market capitalization rose 9%.
Messari said the largest yield-bearing stablecoins are starting to function more akin to money market funds or bank deposits. “The winners don’t do payments,” Messari said, adding that the largest issuers focus their offer on a single asset, rather than payment-related use cases.
Yield-bearing stablecoins started outpacing the growth of the stablecoin supply in mid October 2025, Messari said. The trend suggests rising demand for blockchain-based US dollar products that offer yield without direct exposure to broader crypto volatility.
Yield stablecoins are currently worth a cumulative $22.7 billion, after their market capitalization rose 11% over the past 30 days, according to Stablewatch data.
While this marks a two-fold increase overthe $11 billion market capitalization reached in May 2025, the $22.7 billion value of yield-bearing stablecoins only accounts for about 7.4% of the total $303 billion stablecoin market capitalization, up from 4.5% in May last year.
Among the largest yield-bearing stablecoins by value are Sky’s (sUSDS), Ethena’s (sUSDe) and Maple’s Syrup USDC, according to DefiLlama.
In terms of yield, Maple’s Syrup USDC led this week with a 4.54% annual percentage yield, followed by Maple USDT with a 4.17% APY, Sky Lending’s SUSDS with a $3.75% APY in third place and Ethena’s USDe with 3.49% APY, according to Messari.
Related: Stablecoin payments startup Kast raises $80M at $600M valuation: Report
Lawmakers at odds over stablecoin yield regulations
Despite the growing demand, US lawmakers remain at odds over the market structure bill’s provisions related to yield-bearing stablecoins.
On Thursday, US Senator Majority Leader John Thune reportedly said he doesn’t expect the chamber to move forward with the crypto market structure bill before April.
Yield-bearing stablecoins have become a key sticking point in the debate, with banking groups warning they could create a loophole that pulls deposits away from traditional banks.
The Senate Banking Committee postponed its markup in mid-January as bipartisan negotiations continued, drawing criticism from US President Donald Trump for delaying the bill.
Related: Stablecoin inflows rebound to $1.7B as Washington battles over yield rules
The Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, is designed to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets. The House of Representatives passed the measure on July 17, 2025, and it has been under debate in the Senate since.
The US’s federal stablecoin framework, the GENIUS Act, prohibits issuers from paying interest or yield for holding a payment stablecoin, but still allows third-party platforms to offer reward programs tied to stablecoin holdings. The act was signed into law on July 18, 2025.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Some of the involved cryptocurrencies nosedived by over 80% after the disclosure.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange announced a major delisting, following which most affected cryptocurrencies collapsed by double digits.
Prior to that, the firm temporarily suspended certain withdrawals and deposits and implemented additional amendments to its platform.
The Binance Effect
Binance Alpha (a dedicated platform inside the exchange’s ecosystem that showcases early-stage crypto projects) removed 21 altcoins, including WorldShards (SHARD), FreeStyle Classic (FST), Alliance Games (COA), BNB Card (BNB Card), MilkyWay (MILK), Hyperbot (BOT), and many more.
The company clarified that the sale of the impacted tokens will still be allowed after the removal. At the same time, it warned users to conduct proper research before trading the aforementioned coins to avoid any scams and protect their funds.
As is typically the case, many of the delisted digital assets headed south shortly after the disclosure. After all, Binance is the largest crypto exchange, and withdrawing support usually results in reduced liquidity, diminished availability, and a damaged reputation. MILK and SHARD fell by 6-7% daily, whereas FST and BNB Card nosedived by 70-80%.
A similar reaction was observed in late 2025 when Binance disallowed all services with Kadena (KDA), Flamingo (FLM), and Perpetual Protocol (PERP). Similar to FST and BNB Card, the involved altcoins crashed by double-digit percentages immediately after the news broke.
Other Recent Efforts
Earlier this week, the exchange supported an upgrade and temporarily paused withdrawals and deposits on the Ethereum network. The process was expected to take about an hour, after which operations were supposed to resume smoothly.
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This is a routine procedure that Binance has executed flawlessly many times before. Over the years, it has taken similar measures to support upgrades across various ecosystems, including Cardano, BNB Smart Chain, and others.
Prior to that, Binance issued numerous listing announcements focused on U (United Stables) – a stablecoin launched last year and pegged to the American dollar. In January, it expanded the list of trading choices offered on its Spot section with the BNB/U, ETH/U, KGST/U, and SOL/U pairs.
In February, it added XRP/U, SUI/U, ASTER/U, and PAXG/U, while earlier this month it opened trading for AVAX/U, LINK/U, LTC/U, PAXG/U, and ZEC/U.
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Key Takeaways
- Year-over-year core PCE inflation registered 3.1% in January, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective
- On a monthly basis, core PCE increased 0.4%, matching analyst forecasts
- Overall PCE recorded 2.8% annual growth, marginally lower than the anticipated 2.9%
- Financial markets broadly anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates between 3.5%–3.75% during the upcoming policy meeting
- These figures predate the Iran military engagement, which has elevated crude oil costs and introduces uncertainty to future inflation trends
On March 13, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for January. This metric serves as the Federal Reserve’s primary gauge for measuring inflationary pressures.
The core PCE measure, which excludes volatile food and energy components, climbed 3.1% on an annual basis in January. This figure aligned with expert predictions but represented an acceleration from December’s 3.0% reading. Monthly core PCE advanced 0.4%, consistent with projections.
The overall PCE measurement — encompassing all consumer goods and services — expanded 2.8% annually. This result fell marginally short of the 2.9% consensus estimate and represented a deceleration from the previous month’s velocity.
On a month-to-month basis, overall PCE increased 0.3%, in line with market expectations.
The Federal Reserve maintains an inflation target of 2%. With core PCE currently positioned at 3.1%, consumer prices continue running significantly above the central bank’s desired threshold.
Markets are pricing in that the Fed will maintain its current rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% during next week’s policy deliberations. Given the stubborn inflation readings, interest rate reductions appear unlikely in the near term.
The PCE measure has been registering higher readings compared to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index. This divergence primarily stems from varying methodologies for weighing housing and healthcare expenditures. PCE assigns reduced importance to shelter expenses, which have been moderating, while giving greater emphasis to medical costs, which have been climbing.
February’s CPI registered 2.4% year-over-year — a considerably more subdued figure.
What These Numbers Miss
The January data captures economic circumstances from over a month in the past. It fails to incorporate consequences from the Iran military conflict, which commenced following U.S. and Israeli aerial operations in late February.
Oil prices have surged substantially since hostilities began. Elevated crude costs typically translate to higher inflation in subsequent months.
The economic landscape faces additional complexity from broad-based tariff implementations and substantial corporate capital allocation toward artificial intelligence initiatives. Both factors are already influencing economic conditions but remain challenging to measure accurately in real time.
Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, observed that America’s status as a net petroleum exporter may cushion the impact of rising oil valuations. He acknowledged that while increased energy expenses could initially diminish consumer purchasing capacity, any corresponding investment gains would require time to materialize throughout the economy.
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in January compared to the previous month, surpassing forecasts. Personal income expansion, conversely, experienced modest deceleration.
Looking Forward
Fourth-quarter 2025 GDP expansion underwent substantial downward revision to merely 0.7%.
Ashworth anticipates economic recovery during the first quarter of 2026, attributable in part to diminishing headwinds from a government shutdown that occurred in late 2025.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate determination will follow a two-day policy meeting next week. Current market indicators suggest rates will remain unchanged.
CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2077.68, up 3.7% (+74.61) since 4 p.m. ET on Thursday.
All 20 assets are trading higher.
Leaders: SUI (+6.7%) and ADA (+5.8%).
Laggards: ICP (+0.2%) and NEAR (+0.7%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
The price of oil has more than doubled in just two weeks, driving crypto platforms into a speculative frenzy that saw them list leveraged oil derivatives for overnight commodities futures experts willing to risk it all on-chain.
The results were predictable.
Tokenized crude oil perpetuals on Hyperliquid, a platform that earned initial fame from hedge fund-like copytrading and a leaderboard of leveraged degeneracy, have generated multiple, billion-dollar trading days this week.
Oil has suddenly become Hyperliquid’s second-most popular market behind only bitcoin (BTC) itself.
Open interest on Hyperliquid’s CL-USDC, a West Texas Intermediate crude futures-linked contract, exceeded $169 million. Trailing 24-hour volume still exceeded $1.2 billion at time of writing.
When crude spiked more than 30% to nearly $120 a barrel on March 9, oil short-sellers on Hyperliquid, across a 12-hour period, experienced $36.9 million in liquidations relative to just $2.1 million in long liquidations.
The largest single victim held 72,178 CL shorts worth around $7.7 million. The platform liquidated every one of them.
Not that anyone should feel particularly sorry about the loss, given the choice of venue and size in the first place. Indeed, the obviously well-capitalized trader re-opened short positions almost immediately.
Two other million-figure shorts were liquidated near the very top for oil at $120 per barrel. Another trader, rather embarrassingly, started shorting when barrels were in the $70s.
When oil hit $108 on the morning of March 9, they wiped out.
Another trader decided to label their wallet “Oil Bear” on the Hyperliquid leaderboard, turning the dangerous trade into something of an identity. The account has used multiple tens of millions of dollars worth of leverage to gamble on the commodity.
Of course, in highly volatile commodities markets, it can be just as dangerous to bet on the upside as the downside, depending on the moment. On March 11, a $6 million liquidation occurred when oil fell below $87.
Read more: Bitcoin up, Dubai real estate down since Iran war began
Hyperliquid isn’t the only venue offering crypto oil. Aster, a perpetual futures exchange on BNB Chain, launched its own CL-USDT crude oil perpetuals on March 2.
The exchange, which has earned praise from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, ran a $10,000 oil trading competition. Binance Wallet also launched its own crude oil perpetual contract, CL-USDT, on March 7 with 0% maker fees and 1.2x Aster airdrop points.
As individual traders make and lose millions, leveraged positions can suffer liquidations within minutes. Oil perpetuals didn’t exist on these platforms a few weeks ago. Yet when the Iran war created the demand, Hyperliquid, Aster, and Binance Wallet rushed to supply it.
At $95.57 per barrel, crude oil has rallied 66% year-to-date. It was at $120 per barrel as recently as Monday.
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Prediction markets have shed their experimental veneer and matured into a durable layer of crypto finance. New research shows a dramatic uptick in activity, with monthly notional volumes surpassing $13 billion by late 2025, up from under $100 million in early 2024. The growth isn’t just about more traders; it reflects broader participation across verticals and a shift in product design toward trustworthy settlement and deterministic outcomes. Even as regulators scrutinize the space, trading volume continues to rise, underscoring a persistent demand for markets that reveal information about future events. This piece examines how the industry’s next leap hinges on resolution infrastructure—how outcomes are determined, verified, and settled—as much as on liquidity or incentives. The analysis draws on a joint research effort from Dune and Keyrock that maps the trajectory of prediction markets and their evolving architecture.
Key takeaways
- Prediction-market activity has moved beyond the initial breakout phase, reaching more than $13 billion in monthly notional volume by late 2025, with diversification across sports, politics, macro indicators, and other domains.
- Trust in resolution—how an outcome is determined and settled—emerges as the central bottleneck as the market footprint expands and disputes become more common.
- Resolution architecture, including bond-based dispute mechanisms, challenge windows, and arbitration paths, is increasingly treated as infrastructure rather than a product feature.
- Industry players point to explicit, auditable resolution rules as a prerequisite for institutional participation and scalable growth.
- Despite regulatory pressure, the sector’s growth persists, indicating a mature demand for on-chain information markets backed by robust settlement guarantees.
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The momentum in prediction markets aligns with a broader shift toward information-centric crypto infrastructure, where reliability of resolution and governance increasingly shapes user trust and capital allocation.
Why it matters
As prediction markets scale, the quality of their resolution mechanisms becomes a practical measure of reliability. Traders buy conditional claims on future events, and the system must convert those claims into redeemable value once an outcome is determined. When resolution is slow, ambiguous, or discretionary, traders price in risk, which dampens liquidity and narrows participation to a few trusted markets. The industry is learning that resolution is not a cosmetic feature but a core component of financial infrastructure—analogous to how custody, execution, and liquidation became baseline expectations in centralized finance years ago.
The push toward explicit, auditable resolution rules has practical implications for builders and users. Platforms are redesigning governance and protocol logic to preempt disputes rather than resolve them retroactively. Bond sizes, dispute windows, and arbitration pathways are being calibrated to scale with open interest, ensuring that the cost of manipulation grows alongside demand. In this sense, resolution architecture is not just about ending a disagreement; it is about creating a predictable settlement environment that institutions can rely on and integrate into broader risk management frameworks.
These shifts echo a broader trend in crypto: moving from product features that attract early adopters to system properties that institutions expect as standard. Just as custody and execution transitioned from optional features to fundamental expectations, resolution is trending toward becoming a durable layer of the prediction-market stack. That transformation—where resolution becomes infrastructure—could unlock a wider spectrum of use cases, from hedging macro surprises to funding governance experiments with verifiable outcomes.
In this evolving landscape, the industry’s focus on resolution is underscored by concrete design choices. Optimistic oracle designs—where an answer is presumed correct unless challenged—are paired with financial incentives to deter false reporting. A fixed challenge window opens after an event, inviting disputes through post-event bonding. The more significant disputes become, the larger the bond requirement, raising the economic cost of manipulation. When disputes are unresolved, arbitration by decentralized jurors can determine the outcome and enforce it back into the oracle state. This framework, and the mechanisms that support it, are increasingly viewed as essential public goods for a robust, scalable prediction market ecosystem.
Some projects are already codifying these ideas into formal infrastructure. For example, Seer Resolution Infrastructure represents a blueprint for how resolution paths and arbitrage channels can be standardized across prediction markets. See the evolving documentation and diagrams that illustrate how resolution interacts with market creation, oracle questions, and final settlement. Such references help align market design with practical execution, reducing ambiguity at the moment of settlement and enabling more reliable capital formation around information events.
Beyond the technical specifics, the market’s appetite for reliable resolution is evident in historic patterns. The industry has observed sustained post-event activity even as high-profile regulatory actions target the space. The growth of prediction-market volumes has persisted, suggesting that traders are not simply chasing novelty but seeking durable informational endpoints and transactable risk. In parallel, classic industry players and new entrants alike are exploring standalone platforms and interoperability approaches that place resolution at the center of product strategy, rather than as an afterthought when a dispute arises.
In practical terms, the industry’s trajectory signals a shift from “product feature” to “infrastructure as a standard.” This reorientation implies a higher bar for market design: markets must be live with explicit resolution definitions, markets must scale their bonds and arbitrage paths to accommodate growing open interest, and arbitration processes should be predictable and enforceable across jurisdictions and platforms. When these properties are embedded in the protocol from day one, prediction markets begin to function more like traditional financial systems—reliable venues for price discovery and risk transfer in the realm of future events.
The broader takeaway is clear: resolution is becoming the backbone of prediction-market growth. Platforms that bake clear, verifiable rules into their core architecture are more likely to attract participants, liquidity providers, and institutional capital. The industry’s push toward resolution-focused design—from explicit outcome criteria to auditable settlement workflows—frames the next phase of growth as a maturation of financial infrastructure, rather than a series of isolated product launches.
As one senior analyst noted in the industry discourse, “Resolution is undergoing the same transition as custody and execution did years ago—no longer a differentiator but a baseline expectation.” This shift matters for anyone who uses prediction markets for information signals, hedging, or governance experiments. The promise is not merely more bets; it is more trustworthy outcomes, settled with speed and clarity that participants can rely on for financial planning and decision-making.
Analysts and builders continue to monitor the ongoing development of the resolution layer, including the interplay between optimistic finalization, bond economics, and dispute arbitrage. The goal is an ecosystem where outcomes can be deterministically converted into value in a timely, auditable manner—an essential criterion for widespread adoption and durable liquidity.
Opinion by: David Azubike, lead analyst at Blocksquare
Further reading and contextual links to ongoing research and architecture diagrams can be found in related documentation and coverage cited in the references.
What to watch next
- Publishments and updates detailing explicit resolution rules for ongoing prediction markets, including changes to bonding and challenge windows.
- Arbitration pathway enhancements and standardization across platforms to ensure enforceability of settlements.
- Governance votes or protocol upgrades that affect how final outcomes are proposed and validated by oracles.
- New platform launches and interoperability efforts that emphasize resolution as a core infrastructure layer.
- Regulatory developments and compliance guidance affecting the legality and structure of prediction-market platforms.
Sources & verification
- Data dashboards and metrics on prediction markets via Dune.
- Joint research context from Keyrock detailing market growth and architecture.
- Historical volumes and coverage related to prediction-market activity, including articles such as Prediction market trading volumes hit new high.
- Industry reference: Crypto.com’s standalone prediction market platform launch, discussed in coverage linked within the source material.
- Seer Resolution Infrastructure documentation outlining architecture and interaction with the prediction market stack.
What the article topic changes
Resolution-centric design is redefining how prediction markets communicate risk, resolve disputes, and settle funds. The shift toward auditable, enforceable outcomes promises more stable liquidity and broader inclusion of market participants, including institutions that require transparent settlement processes. The industry’s evolution suggests that prediction markets will increasingly function as information infrastructure—supporting decision-making and risk management in a way that mirrors traditional financial markets, but tailored to the unique demands of forecasting future events.
Key Takeaways
- Shares of Robinhood declined approximately 2% during after-hours trading following the March 12 release of February performance data.
- February equity trading volumes reached $194.4 billion, representing a 14% sequential decline but a 36% improvement versus the prior year.
- Options contract volume totaled 180.3 million for the month, reflecting a 10% decrease compared to January.
- Cryptocurrency trading emerged as a standout performer — $25 billion in monthly volume, climbing 9% sequentially and surging 74% annually.
- Platform assets under management reached $314 billion at February’s close, slipping 3% from the prior month while jumping 68% year-over-year.
The popular trading platform released its February performance metrics on March 12, triggering a roughly 2% decline in shares during extended trading hours. The data painted a nuanced picture of activity across the company’s various trading segments.
Equity volumes totaled $194.4 billion throughout February. This represented a sequential decline of 14% compared to January’s figures, although the number still exceeded last February’s volume by 36%. On an average daily basis, equity trading volumes measured $10.2 billion, declining 11% month-over-month while maintaining a 36% year-over-year increase.
The Robinhood mobile application experienced more pronounced weakness. App-specific average daily volumes plummeted 35% annually to $336 million, creating a notable contrast with the overall platform’s healthier year-over-year comparison.
Options activity similarly disappointed. February saw 180.3 million options contracts change hands across the platform, representing a 10% monthly decrease. Daily average options volume registered at 9.5 million contracts, falling 5% sequentially despite posting a 9% annual gain.
Event contracts suffered the steepest decline. Monthly volume contracted 29% from January to 2.4 billion contracts, while average daily volume retreated 22% month-over-month to 86 million contracts.
Cryptocurrency Trading Shines
Digital asset trading provided the month’s positive highlight. Robinhood recorded $25 billion in cryptocurrency trading volume during February — advancing 9% sequentially and soaring 74% compared to the year-ago period. Bitcoin’s resilience, despite experiencing a significant mid-month correction, contributed to sustained elevated activity levels.
The mobile app platform generated $9.4 billion of the total crypto volume, representing an 8% monthly increase. However, app-level cryptocurrency average daily volumes remain 35% below their year-ago benchmark.
Cash and customer deposits concluded February at $16.5 billion, surging 67% year-over-year. During the month, the company modified its brokerage High-Yield Cash offering to facilitate margin lending expansion. This strategic adjustment moved more than $6 billion from Cash Sweep balances into free credit balances.
Account Growth Maintains Momentum
The platform’s customer base continued expanding. Robinhood closed February with 27.4 million funded customer accounts, extending its consistent growth trajectory.
Total assets held on the platform measured $314 billion at month-end, declining 3% from January 2026 levels but climbing 68% versus February 2025. The sequential monthly decrease mirrors both reduced trading activity and prevailing market dynamics during the period.
Analyst sentiment toward the stock remains predominantly positive. Current consensus ratings show Strong Buy, derived from 14 Buy recommendations, two Hold ratings, and zero Sell ratings issued during the last three months. The mean analyst price target stands at $125.77.
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TLDR
- Stock futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted gains Friday morning following a sharp decline the previous day, supported by a modest retreat in oil prices.
- Brent crude momentarily breached the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since August 2022, subsequently falling back to approximately $99.
- Analysts describe the current oil supply disruption, linked to the Iran conflict entering its second week with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, as historically unprecedented.
- Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, with market observers pointing to a social media message from Trump as a potential catalyst for the cryptocurrency’s advance.
- Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically, with traders now pricing in a 47% probability of no rate cuts in 2026, compared to merely 3% four weeks earlier, amid mounting inflation concerns.
Friday morning brought relief to US equity markets as stock futures posted modest gains after Thursday’s bruising session pushed all three primary indices to their 2026 lows. Futures contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each advanced between 0.3% and 0.4% during early trading hours.
The upward movement came after an Axios report suggested a potential breakthrough in the Middle East crisis. According to the report, President Donald Trump informed fellow world leaders during a Wednesday virtual summit that Iran was on the verge of capitulation. However, official White House confirmation of these statements has not been forthcoming.
Contradicting any notion of imminent surrender, Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, doubled down on Thursday with pledges to continue hostilities. He explicitly stated Iran’s intention to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global petroleum shipments.
As the confrontation between Iran and Israel stretches into its second week, military operations continue to intensify. Fresh Israeli strikes targeted Tehran, while evidence suggests Iranian involvement in missile attacks affecting Dubai and Turkey. The United States military also reported the tragic loss of four service members in a refueling aircraft accident.
Oil Pulls Back But Stays Elevated
Oil prices experienced a modest decline Friday following days of turbulent trading. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped approximately 2% to trade beneath $94 per barrel. Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, retreated from the psychologically significant $100 threshold after closing above that level Thursday for the first time in over two years.
Energy market experts characterize the current supply disruption as unparalleled in scope and severity. Washington responded by issuing its second exemption permitting purchases of previously sanctioned Russian petroleum, attempting to alleviate supply constraints.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Indian government representatives are engaged in intensive negotiations with Tehran to secure passage for no fewer than 23 oil tankers currently stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Indian officials suggest initial transit approvals could materialize within days.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall Sharply
The petroleum-fueled inflation anxiety is fundamentally altering market projections for Federal Reserve monetary policy. CME FedWatch data reveals traders now assign a 47% likelihood to the scenario where the central bank implements zero interest rate reductions throughout 2026. This represents a dramatic shift from the 3% probability assigned to this outcome just one month prior.
Friday morning saw the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.28%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gained 0.3%, reaching its strongest position in three and a half months.
Market participants eagerly awaited Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measurement tool. Additional economic data including fourth quarter GDP figures and the January JOLTS employment openings report were also on the calendar.
Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 barrier in early Friday trading. Market commentators suggested a social media message from former President Trump may have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum. Gold was tracking toward a weekly decline, pressured by dollar strength.
Thursday witnessed Brent crude’s most substantial single-session percentage increase since May 2020, highlighting the extraordinary volatility characterizing this week’s energy market trading.
- Bitcoin is charging toward $73,000 amid a fresh decoupling from the stock market.
- The surge in BTC price comes despite fears around escalating oil prices.
- Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are also eyeing momentum as traditional assets falter.
Bitcoin climbed past $72,500 on Friday, extending gains ahead of the Wall Street open.
The cryptocurrency had earlier broken above $72,000 after buyers pushed it out of a consolidation range below $70,000.
The move came as digital assets appeared to shrug off a broader sell-off in equities.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $72,518, up roughly 4% over the past 24 hours.
The rally to intraday highs came even as Asian stocks declined and S&P 500 futures slipped amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Ethereum followed Bitcoin higher, touching intraday highs near $2,157.
Other major altcoins, including XRP, Solana, and BNB, also posted gains around key price levels.
BTC eyes $73k
Analysts attribute BTC’s uptick to crypto’s resilience in recent weeks despite the slump in sentiment following Israel and the United States’ attack on Iran.
While the war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have stoked fears of inflation amid soaring oil prices, on-chain data suggests whales have used the dip for accumulation.
The crypto market has largely weathered the initial storm of the Iran war, and analysts are pointing to fresh decoupling from broader risk asset sentiment.
Amid this potential momentum buildup, Bitcoin is targeting its highest level in nearly two weeks.
After dipping to lows of $63,000 on February 28, BTC pumped to above $74,000 on March 4.
Four consecutive red days saw bears push the bellwether crypto asset to lows of $65,000.
Since then, it’s been up on the daily chart as bulls target a fifth green candle.
If this happens, a breakout above $73,000 could bring the $75k-$78k region into play.
The 100-day simple moving average could offer the next resistance zone around $81,162.
Why could BTC see a sharp pullback?
This downside outlook aligns with potential fragility catalysed by geopolitical uncertainty and global oil pressures.
According to analysts, higher prices reinforce inflation risks and constrain risk appetite as yields rise and the US dollar strengthens.
Meanwhile, BTC and crypto may also face a downturn in momentum as investors slash odds of immediate Fed rate cuts.
Glassnode highlighted this picture via X:
“An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions. Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.”
Investors could thus go for profit-taking.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the psychological support level at $70,000. A stronger floor could be at prior lows near $66,250.
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