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Quantum threat lingers over legacy BTC as Ark flags structural tail risk

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Quantum threat lingers over legacy BTC as Ark flags structural tail risk

Ark Invest and Unchained say about 34.6% of Bitcoin—mainly early, reused and Taproot addresses—could be vulnerable if future quantum computers crack today’s cryptography.

Summary

  • The report estimates 34.6% of BTC, including 5M coins in reused addresses, 1.7M in legacy P2PK, and 200K in Taproot, could be swept if elliptic curve crypto breaks.
  • Quantum is framed as a long‑term, not immediate, threat, giving Bitcoin time to roll out quantum‑safe address types, migration incentives, and stricter anti‑reuse norms.
  • For investors, Ark calls this structural tail risk: long‑dormant and “lost” coins may reprice as quantum milestones approach, especially for institutional custody.

Roughly one-third of all Bitcoin (BTC) in circulation could still be vulnerable if future quantum computers break today’s core cryptography, according to a new joint report from Ark Invest and Unchained.

Ark warns on quantum risk to legacy BTC

The report estimates that about 34.6% of BTC supply remains at potential risk under a credible quantum-computing breakthrough scenario. That slice includes around 5 million BTC (about 25% of total supply) exposed through address reuse, roughly 1.7 million BTC (8.6%) held in early pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses, and about 200,000 BTC (around 1%) tied to Taproot’s P2TR address type. In each of these cases, public keys have been revealed on-chain, meaning a quantum-capable adversary who can break elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) could, in theory, derive private keys and sweep funds.

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Ark and Unchained stress that most existing Bitcoin is already safe from near-term quantum threats, as modern usage patterns minimize unnecessary key exposure. However, the legacy buckets—early coins, heavily reused addresses, and certain advanced script types—represent a structurally trapped cohort that may never fully move, especially where owners are lost, dead, or simply offline. That creates a long-lived attack surface that could distort supply expectations if quantum capability arrives earlier than anticipated.

Long-term problem, slow-moving fix

Crucially, the report frames quantum as a “long-term risk”: the industry still expects it will take years before any machine can realistically break Bitcoin’s ECC in real time. That lead time gives the Bitcoin community scope to research and deploy quantum-resistant schemes, including new address types, migration incentives, and protocol-level signals to discourage key reuse.

For investors, the takeaway is not imminent doom but structural tail risk that needs to be priced and managed. If and when credible quantum attacks near viability, pressure will mount on long-dormant coins, and narratives around “lost” supply, Satoshi-era wallets, and institutional custody standards will likely reprice. Ark’s message is blunt: Bitcoin’s cryptography does not need replacing tomorrow, but serious work on quantum mitigation must happen well before the math breaks.

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Crypto World

Eightco Lands $125M in Funding from Bitmine and ARK

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The fresh capital from Kraken’s parent company, Ark Invest, and Bitmine has backed Eightco’s new bets on OpenAI and MrBeast

Shares in Eightco Holdings (ORBS) jumped 12% on Thursday after it raised $125 million to back its bets in blockchain and artificial intelligence.

Eightco said on Wednesday that crypto treasury firm Bitmine led the funding with $75 million, while Ark Invest and Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, each chipped in $25 million apiece.

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The company added that Bitmine chairman Tom Lee would join Eightco’s board and Ark Invest’s chief futurist Brett Winton also signed on as a board advisor.

Eightco chairman Dan Ives, known for his bullish commentary on the tech sector, also stepped down from his position after being appointed to the role in September.

Eightco said the capital would support its expansion “into investing in technology shaping the next generation of artificial intelligence, blockchain infrastructure, and global digital consumer platforms.”

Eightco bets on MrBeast, OpenAI

​Eightco said that it had also closed an initial $50 million strategic investment into OpenAI and another $25 million investment into Beast Industries and its owner and YouTuber James Donaldson, better known as MrBeast.

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​“These investments position ORBS as a hub at the center of key frontier AI technologies and content creation, expanding its portfolio to include ownership stakes in world-leading innovators,” Eightco said.

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Source: Eightco

Related: Crypto accounting startup Cryptio lands $45M as institutions move onchain

Shares in Eightco ended trading on Thursday up 11.67% to 90 cents in reaction to the announcement. The stock saw a slight fall after hours, dropping by 2.6% to 88 cents.

AI, Worldcoin, Tom Lee, OpenAI
Eightco’s stock spiked on Thursday but is still down over 90% in the past six months. Source: Google Finance

Shares in Eightco are down over 92.49% in the past six months as stocks tied to crypto have been battered amid a broad market downturn.