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Raoul Pal: U.S. Liquidity Crunch Is Crushing Bitcoin and Tech Stocks

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TLDR:

  • U.S. Treasury cash rebuilding reduced Bitcoin liquidity and pressured crypto alongside SaaS stocks in recent weeks.
  • Bitcoin and the UBS SaaS Index now show nearly identical price behavior under shared liquidity stress.
  • Gold absorbed marginal capital flows that otherwise could have supported crypto and tech assets.
  • Policy shifts in rates and bank leverage may restore Bitcoin liquidity later in the cycle.

Bitcoin and high-growth tech stocks have moved in near lockstep during the latest market decline. 

New analysis links both drawdowns to tightening U.S. liquidity rather than sector-specific failures. The shift challenges claims that crypto markets face a unique breakdown. 

Data now points to government cash management and funding mechanics as the primary driver.

Bitcoin liquidity tightens as U.S. funding drains hit risk assets

Raoul Pal shared the findings in a public post published through Real Vision and GMI research notes. He compared Bitcoin price action with the UBS SaaS Index and found near-identical chart structures.

The comparison suggested a single macro force at work across both markets. According to Pal, U.S. total liquidity replaced global liquidity as the dominant influence in this phase of the cycle.

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Liquidity pressure intensified after the Federal Reserve completed the drawdown of its reverse repo facility in 2024. Treasury then rebuilt its General Account without a monetary offset, creating a net drain.

That drain coincided with weak readings in U.S. manufacturing activity and reduced capital flows into long-duration assets. Bitcoin and SaaS stocks absorbed the sharpest impact due to higher risk profiles.

Pal also pointed to gold’s recent rally as a competing liquidity sink. Capital shifted toward perceived safety while speculative markets faced reduced inflows.

The U.S. government shutdown added another layer of stress. Treasury avoided drawing down reserves after the last shutdown and instead added to the account balance, further restricting available liquidity.

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Pal described the period as a temporary air pocket. He argued that the pressure reflects timing rather than a structural breakdown in crypto markets.

Policy expectations reshape Bitcoin liquidity outlook for 2026

Pal rejected claims that incoming Federal Reserve leadership would tighten policy aggressively. He said current expectations misread Kevin Warsh’s long-term stance on growth and rates.

According to Pal, the policy framework mirrors the late 1990s playbook of lower rates and tolerance for higher economic heat. The approach assumes productivity gains from artificial intelligence will limit core inflation.

He also noted that balance sheet reduction has reached system limits. Any sharp reversal would risk destabilizing lending markets.

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Future liquidity expansion could come from partial Treasury account drawdowns and changes to bank leverage rules. Pal cited the expected easing of the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio as one key mechanism.

Fiscal stimulus linked to U.S. political cycles may also support broader liquidity conditions. He tied the timing to midterm election incentives and government spending patterns.

Pal acknowledged misjudging the dominance of U.S. liquidity versus global liquidity earlier in the cycle. He said recent conditions clarified which factor now drives Bitcoin and tech assets.

Despite current weakness, he maintained that the broader macro structure remains intact. He framed the downturn as a delay caused by overlapping fiscal and monetary constraints.

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Metaplex and K Wave Media Tokenize K-Culture IP Onchain

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Crypto Breaking News

Editor’s note: The Metaplex Foundation and K Wave Media have signed a memorandum of understanding to advance the Gaon Project and bring K-Culture IP onchain through digital asset infrastructure. The collaboration will integrate Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media’s IP portfolio to develop new models linking globally influential content with digital assets, fan communities, and internet-native capital formation. The effort, developed from discussions at Metaplex Summit in Seoul, examines how blockchain can support issuance and management of digital assets tied to Korean entertainment—including K-pop—and how such systems could shape participation by fans, creators, and investors in the global K-Culture economy.

Key points

  • MoU to integrate Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media IP to tokenize K-Culture IP onchain.
  • Initiative aims to connect content with digital assets, global fan communities, and internet-native capital formation.
  • Gaon Project introduced at Metaplex Summit 2026 in Korea and focuses on tokenization and asset issuance models.
  • Metaplex has supported 1 billion digital assets and over $13.5 billion in transaction value; expansion to IP-backed tokens.

Why this matters

By combining Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media’s IP portfolio, the initiative could demonstrate how blockchain-enabled digital assets enable new funding sources, fan participation, and international access to capital. The effort explores onchain asset issuance, governance, and distribution models for K-pop, dramas, films, and music programs, helping to map how cultural IP can move through global liquidity networks while clarifying regulatory considerations.

“K-Culture has built some of the most influential digital communities anywhere in the world,” said Stephen Hess, founder of Metaplex.

What to watch next

  • Tracking MoU collaboration and integration with K Wave Media’s IP portfolio.
  • Progress updates on the Gaon Project and onchain asset issuance for K-Culture IP.
  • Regulatory environment discussions and broader blockchain role in digital asset issuance.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Metaplex Foundation and K Wave Media Partner to Advance Tokenization of K-Culture IP

Discussions at Metaplex Summit in Seoul highlighted growing momentum around bringing Korean entertainment and cultural content onchain

SAN FRANCISCO, March 16, 2026 (BUSINESS WIRE)— The Metaplex Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to building and growing Metaplex, the leading tokenization platform in the Solana ecosystem, today announced a partnership with K Wave Media, a company focused on developing and commercializing Korean entertainment and cultural intellectual property (IP), to advance the Gaon Project, an initiative designed to bring K-Culture IP onchain through digital asset infrastructure.

Under a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the organizations will collaborate on integrating Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media’s cultural IP portfolio to develop new models linking globally influential content with digital assets, global fan communities and internet-native capital formation.

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The initiative will examine how blockchain technology can support the issuance and management of digital assets tied to Korean entertainment and cultural content, including K-pop and other widely recognized K-Culture IP. These models are expected to create new opportunities for participation among fans, creators and investors across the global K-Culture economy.

“K-Culture has built some of the most influential digital communities anywhere in the world,” said Stephen Hess, founder of Metaplex. “Working with K Wave Media allows us to explore how that cultural IP can move onchain, expanding access to new funding sources through global liquidity and unlocking new methods of content distribution. As technology continues to reshape how communities form and participate online, initiatives like this highlight the growing intersection between culture and digital economies.”

The Gaon Project was introduced at Metaplex Summit 2026 in Korea, an invitation-only gathering held in Seoul on March 6 that brought together leaders from Korean financial institutions, investment firms, crypto protocols, legal organizations and media.

Discussions focused on the growing opportunity to tokenize Korean cultural IP using blockchain infrastructure, including how digital assets could create new connections between content creators, global fandoms and internet-native capital markets. Participants also exchanged perspectives on the evolving regulatory environment and the broader role of blockchain technology in digital asset issuance.

During the event, Yangtae Kim and JaeHa Lee of K Wave Media outlined how the organization is positioning itself to transform the Korean IP market by combining content pipelines with new participation models, linking digital assets, fan communities and decentralized finance (DeFi).

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“Korean entertainment has become one of the most influential cultural exports in modern media,” said Jaeha Lee, Head of Content, K Wave Media. “Through the Gaon Project, we plan to bring Korean dramas, films, animation and music reality programs onchain as real-world assets, creating new pathways for how Korean content is distributed and discovered.”

To date, Metaplex has supported the creation of 1 billion digital assets and over $13.5 billion in transaction value. The Metaplex Foundation plans to continue expanding its platform to support additional digital asset categories, including IP-backed tokens and agent-native tokens, as it advances infrastructure for the onchain economy.

About Metaplex Foundation

The Metaplex Foundation is a non-profit organization dedicated to developing and growing Metaplex, a suite of onchain programs and tools that facilitate the creation, distribution, and management of digital assets using Solana and the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). Metaplex enables platforms like metaplex.com to provide a seamless end-to-end experience for asset issuers and traders to discover, trade, and launch tokens and NFTs on Solana.

About K Wave Media

K Wave Media is an entertainment and media company focused on content investment, film and series production, K-Pop merchandise, and a Bitcoin treasury strategy. By integrating entertainment IP with digital asset infrastructure, the company is expanding its influence in the emerging real-world asset (RWA) market for Korean cultural IP.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Nears $75K as Trader Says BTC Price Squeeze Changes Nothing

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Bitcoin extended a cautious rally at the start of the week, touching six-week highs as U.S. equities opened higher on signs of easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. The move came alongside firmer price action for a broad set of risk assets, yet analysts warned that the longer-term trend for Bitcoin remains downbeat, with macro and liquidity dynamics continuing to influence the market. Traders are watching for whether this is a durable shift or a temporary relief bounce that fails to establish a footing above important technical levels.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin rose to around $74,600 at Monday’s Wall Street open, aligning with a 1.5% uptick in major indices as investors digested signals of deescalation in the Iran situation.
  • Oil and gold retreated from recent highs, with WTI crude briefly dipping below $100 per barrel and gold testing the $5,000 level, a move seen as a return to more conventional risk-off hedges as tensions eased.
  • Analysts highlighted that the relief bounce is fragile; a sustained breakout would need to contend with the broader trend, which remains pressured by macro headwinds and caution around liquidity.
  • Market commentary framed Bitcoin as competing with traditional safe-havens during periods of geopolitical stress, a narrative that could gain traction if volatility persists.
  • Some traders flagged potential technical triggers, including a CME Group futures gap and the importance of trend-line support, as markets weigh whether the rally can hold.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The price action shows a cautious uptick but fails to confirm a durable trend reversal.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While the intraday moves look constructive, the overall setup remains conflicted, with macro factors and risk sentiment likely to dictate the near-term path.

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Market context: The week opened with risk assets under a mixed macro backdrop, as de-escalation signals in geopolitical tensions tempered some speculative theta, aiding a risk-on impulse in equities while leaving crypto charts tethered to potential further volatility.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s brief ascent to the six-week high territory underscores a resumed correlation with traditional markets under certain macro conditions, particularly when headlines point toward easing tensions or softer geopolitical risk. While the price crest near $74,600 signals renewed interest, the broader market narrative remains uncertain. The juxtaposition of crypto’s potential as a geopolitical hedge against the continued drag of macro headwinds raises questions about whether the asset class can sustain upside in a liquidity environment that has shown cyclical sensitivity to headlines.

Early-week moves also highlight the evolving discourse on crypto’s role in macro portfolios. Analysts from QCP Capital suggested the possibility of Bitcoin acting as a digital safe haven or geopolitical hedge during periods of instability, noting that price action has sometimes tested that narrative in real time. The notion of crypto as an alternative to gold in risk-off periods is not new, but it appears to be resurfacing in markets where traditional hedges still carry significant risk premia. This re-emergence could influence trader psychology, especially if correlations with equities and precious metals spike again during bouts of volatility.

On the technical front, traders emphasized that the relief bounce needs to prove durable. After reclaiming some key trend lines, Bitcoin and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) were watched against broader asset classes for signs of sustainability. The commentary suggested that a longer-lived advance would require a shift in risk appetite and a break above critical resistance, not merely a one-off move driven by temporary headlines. For now, the market remains cautious, with many players hedging around what could become a larger pivot in macro sentiment rather than a straightforward risk-on impulse.

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What to watch next

  • Price action around the $74,000–$75,000 zone and whether Bitcoin can sustain a break above recent inertia, or if price returns to tested support levels.
  • The CME Group Bitcoin futures gap near $71,500 and whether price revisits that area, potentially shaping a fresh reversal or consolidation zone.
  • any renewed headlines on Middle East tensions and their impact on oil, gold, and broader risk sentiment, including the potential for renewed volatility in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • ongoing commentary from traders like Jelle on longer-term BTC cycles and the likelihood of a continued bear market versus a structural shift in market dynamics.
  • persistent discussions around Bitcoin’s narrative as a digital hedge, particularly if macro stress signals intensify again or if liquidity conditions tighten ahead of economic data releases.

Sources & verification

  • QCP Market Color analysis discussing Bitcoin’s narrative as a potential digital hedge and the risk-on/risk-off dynamics observed in the market.
  • BTC price data and chart references from TradingView (BTCUSD) cited in market commentary and chart captions.
  • Trader commentary on price action around the CME Bitcoin futures gap near $71,500 (as discussed by Daan Crypto Trades on X).
  • Analyst notes from Jelle on X regarding bear market cycles and potential lower-price scenarios.
  • Public posts and discussions referencing geopolitical developments, including coverage of Hormuz tensions and de-escalation signals.

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) advanced to the upper band of its recent range as Wall Street opened on a cautiously optimistic note. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap rose toward $74,600, coinciding with a roughly 1.5% uptick in major equity indices. The macro backdrop showed oil slipping below the $100 per barrel threshold and gold pulling back from peak levels, approaching key moving-average support as investors priced in slower-than-expected geopolitical risk. The juxtaposition of crypto strength against steadier asset classes underscores a watershed moment for traders evaluating whether this is a durable shift or a transient relief rally.

Analysts at QCP Capital framed the move as part of a broader narrative in which Bitcoin and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) are being tested by traditional risk signals. They noted that BTC and ETH managed to push above critical round-number benchmarks, but the broader risk-off tilt persisted in equities and precious metals, tempering the vigor of a potential sustainable breakout. One line from the analysis captured the tension: “If this pattern persists, it would be a late-quarter plot twist, given crypto’s underdog status and its familiar habit of correlating with traditional assets mostly on the way down.”

The discussion around Bitcoin as a possible digital safe haven resurfaced amid softer geopolitical headlines, with market participants considering whether BTC could serve as a hedge during periods of uncertainty. While that narrative has been tested before, the current price action provides a fresh data point for those arguing that crypto may offer diversification benefits when traditional hedges come under pressure. Still, a majority of traders cautioned that the relief bounce is unlikely to rewrite the longer-term technical picture without sustained demand and a clear breakout above key resistance zones.

From a sentiment standpoint, some market voices urged patience. A number of traders highlighted that the latest rally might represent a higher low rather than a robust reversal, signaling the potential for a renewed move lower if conditions deteriorate or if macro liquidity tightens again. The conversation in social feeds—ranging from market commentators on X to posts referencing CME data—emphasized that the market’s next move would hinge on the ability of buyers to absorb any renewed volatility stemming from macro headlines or shifts in risk sentiment. In addition to technical considerations, the unfolding narrative around the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence the energy complex and, by extension, the risk-on/risk-off calculus for investors across asset classes.

Charts comparing BTC against gold and other assets illustrated a recurring theme: Bitcoin’s price action remained tightly bound to broad market cycles, with the 50-day moving average for gold providing a rough guidepost for risk appetite. The visual relationships underscored the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in diversified portfolios during periods of geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty. As traders weigh the probability of further volatility, the question remains whether this week’s price action marks the start of a sustained re-valuation or a temporary pause within a longer-downtrend framework.

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Key figures and next steps

In the near term, market participants will be attentive to whether BTC can maintain momentum beyond the $74k handle and whether the next weekly candle closes above critical technical thresholds. The possibility of a retracement back toward the CME-futures-defined area around $71,500 could provide a fresh pivot point for risk controls and short-term trading strategies. The interplay between oil, gold, and crypto will continue to shape risk sentiment, especially if geopolitical headlines shift again or if macro data surprises alter the liquidity outlook.

Detailed verification notes

The material reflects market commentary and data points reported during the week’s opening session, including: crypto price action near $74,600; the role of QCP Market Color in framing Bitcoin’s narrative; the presence of a CME gap around $71,500 as observed by CME-related traders; and social-media commentary from traders such as Jelle and Daan Crypto Trades. The embedded trading charts from TradingView provide ongoing price context for BTCUSD as markets respond to evolving macro and geopolitical signals.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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UK Man Accuses Wife of Stealing 2,323 Bitcoin After Filming Seed Phrase

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UK Man Accuses Wife of Stealing 2,323 Bitcoin After Filming Seed Phrase

A UK resident has accused his estranged wife of stealing 2,323 Bitcoin from his Trezor hardware wallet in 2023, alleging she used a security camera to capture his seed phrase and access codes. 

In a court judgment by Justice Cotter, filed in the UK’s High Court of Justice last Tuesday, lawyers acting for the claimant, Ping Fai Yuen, alleged that his wife, Fun Yung Li and her sister covertly recorded him to obtain his seed phrase and transfer out $176 million in Bitcoin (BTC) to 71 different addresses.

After allegedly being tipped off by his daughter about the plot, Ping installed audio recording equipment and claims to have captured Fun discussing the theft and how to move large sums of money without attracting the attention of banks or law enforcement. 

No transactions have taken place at any of the wallet addresses since Dec. 21, 2023, according to the court documents.

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Ping reported the alleged theft to the police shortly after the last transfer in December. Law enforcement arrested his wife and confiscated several cold wallets and watches. She was later released on bail while police investigated.

Authorities later stated there would be no “further action pending new evidence.”

A UK resident accused his wife of stealing his Bitcoin using CCTV to record his seed phrase. Source: UK Royal Courts of Justice

Wallets have been targeted by dusting attacks

In November last year, nearly two years after the alleged theft, Ping applied for an asset preservation injunction, asking the court to freeze all cryptocurrency associated with his wife, formally declare his ownership of the Bitcoin and either return it or award him its equivalent value in fiat currency.

He also claimed to be monitoring the Bitcoin addresses and expressed concern that they had been targeted in a crypto dusting attack. 

Dusting attacks involve a bad actor sending small amounts of cryptocurrency to wallets to track activity and try to identify the owners of wallets with large holdings for follow-up phishing and other scams.

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A separate incident in September 2024 allegedly involved a violent confrontation between Ping and Fun, resulting in charges against Ping of assault occasioning actual bodily harm and two counts of common assault, to which he later pleaded guilty.

Judge says the husband has a high chance of winning 

Justice Cotter wrote that Ping has a high chance of prevailing, given the evidence collected since the alleged incident occurred and the fact that Fun did not provide “any alternative (or any) explanation for the movement of the Bitcoin.”

Related: US Treasury sanctions enablers of North Korea IT worker fraud ring

“In my judgment the claimant has demonstrated a very high probability of success,” Cotter wrote, adding that “The evidence is that he was warned of what the First Defendant was seeking to do, the transcripts are damning; and when the First Defendant’s property was searched, the necessary equipment to exfiltrate the Bitcoin was found.”

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Cotter also noted that if the pair cannot agree on how to proceed, the court will schedule a case management hearing. He also recommended an early trial, which he described as “necessary given the security threats to, and volatility of value of, the Bitcoin.”

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen