Bitcoin and Ethereum options carrying roughly $18.1 billion in notional value have moved toward their Sept. 25 quarterly expiry with calls outweighing puts across both markets, according to Coinbase Markets.

Coinbase Markets said Bitcoin’s open-interest put/call ratio stood at 0.66, while its 24-hour volume ratio was lower at 0.37. Ether showed an open-interest ratio of 0.61 and a 24-hour volume ratio of 0.55. Coinbase described both books as call-heavy, with recent trading even more tilted toward calls, particularly for Bitcoin.

A separate Deribit-sourced snapshot taken at 03:53 UTC on Sept. 23 showed $16.13 billion of Bitcoin inverse-option open interest scheduled for Friday and $2.16 billion in Ether, putting the combined figure near $18.29 billion. Differences from Coinbase’s $18.1 billion reading can arise as prices and positions change between snapshots.

Bitcoin options put $90,000 and $100,000 strikes in focus

Bitcoin accounts for most of Friday’s expiry. Deribit-sourced data showed $9.61 billion in BTC call open interest against $6.52 billion in puts for Sept. 25, producing a 0.68 put/call ratio at the later snapshot.

Coinbase identified $90,000 and $100,000 as two areas where Bitcoin call open interest is concentrated. With BTC trading near $86,500 early Wednesday, the $90,000 strike sat roughly 4% above spot while $100,000 remained nearly 16% higher. Market data showed Bitcoin trading between roughly $86,149 and $86,791 during the Sept. 23 session.

The call concentration does not establish that Bitcoin will reach either strike before expiry. Open interest counts outstanding contracts but does not reveal whether each trader bought or sold the call, while many options positions form part of spreads, hedges or market-making strategies.

Put/call ratios below one show that calls outnumber puts under the selected measure. Coinbase’s 0.37 ratio for recent BTC options volume points to considerably more call than put trading, but volume by itself does not identify the ultimate directional exposure of all participants.

The market has nevertheless moved closer to the largest upside strikes since Coinbase’s previous quarterly-expiry update. Bitcoin surged from around $76,000 on Sept. 17 to above $86,000 this week, reaching an eight-month high above $87,000 on Sept. 21.

Bitcoin’s move toward $90,000 has been supported by renewed spot demand and short covering, although analysts said continued buying would be required to sustain the advance.

Ether options build toward $3,000 to $4,000 calls

Ether’s Friday book is smaller in dollar terms but carries a similar call-heavy structure. Deribit-sourced data showed approximately $1.34 billion in ETH call open interest against $820.1 million in puts for Sept. 25, matching Coinbase’s reported 0.61 open-interest put/call ratio.

Coinbase said ETH call interest is spread through the $3,000-$4,000 range. Ether was trading close to $2,760 early Sept. 23, putting $3,000 approximately 8.7% above spot. The $4,000 strike remained around 45% higher. Market data showed ETH had traded between roughly $2,750 and $2,766 during Wednesday’s session after closing near $2,753 on Tuesday.

Ether has gained sharply since the middle of last week. The asset traded near $2,416 on Sept. 16 before moving through $2,600 and reaching an intraday high above $2,805 on Sept. 21.

Reuters reported that ETH had broken above a technical resistance level near $2,661.52, with its technical analysis identifying $3,050 as one potential upside level if momentum continued. The projection is a chart-based scenario and does not establish where ETH will trade into expiry.

Ethereum’s earlier breakout above the $2,550 area opened attention toward higher resistance levels after buyers defended support near $2,400.

Friday’s expiry has grown since Coinbase’s Sept. 15 snapshot

Friday’s notional amount has increased since Coinbase Markets published its earlier Q3 positioning data.

On Sept. 15, Coinbase placed combined Bitcoin and Ethereum options open interest for the quarterly expiry at roughly $16.6 billion. Bitcoin accounted for approximately $14.73 billion, with Ether at $1.92 billion. At the time, BTC’s put/call ratio stood at 0.52 and ETH’s at 0.57.

Bitcoin accounted for nearly 89% of the $16.6 billion Q3 options expiry in that earlier snapshot. Coinbase then identified Bitcoin’s max-pain level near $72,000 and Ether’s around $2,200.

By Sept. 23, Coinbase’s combined figure had moved to roughly $18.1 billion while the reported put/call ratios had risen to 0.66 for Bitcoin and 0.61 for ETH. A higher put/call ratio means puts have increased relative to calls compared with the earlier snapshot, even though calls still dominate overall open interest.

The increase in notional value should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent amount of new money entering the market. Notional open interest changes with the number of outstanding contracts and the value assigned to the underlying assets, while Bitcoin and Ether prices have risen sharply since Sept. 15.

PerpFinder’s Deribit-sourced methodology notes that USD open-interest figures represent contract quantities valued using forward prices. They do not measure option premiums paid, margin posted or the amount of cash that will change hands at settlement.

Bitcoin and Ether quarterly options settle at 08:00 UTC

The Sept. 25 contracts form part of Deribit’s quarterly expiry cycle. Deribit states that quarterly BTC and ETH options expire on the last Friday of March, June, September and December at 08:00 UTC.

For Friday’s expiry, the settlement process uses the relevant Deribit index over the period immediately before expiration. PerpFinder’s methodology states that the delivery price is based on the appropriate index’s time-weighted average between 07:30 UTC and 08:00 UTC.

The size of the expiry can lead traders and market makers to adjust hedges as option deltas change when spot prices move closer to major strikes. The presence of large open interest at $90,000, $100,000, $3,000 or $4,000 does not require spot prices to move toward those levels.

Deribit reports that its platform handles roughly 85% of BTC and ETH options activity, making its quarterly expiries a large component of the crypto derivatives market. Its August statistics showed $56.13 billion in Bitcoin options turnover and $7.14 billion in Ether options turnover during the month.

Friday’s quarterly contracts are scheduled to expire at 08:00 UTC on Sept. 25. The final notional open interest, put/call ratios and strike concentrations can continue changing until traders close, roll or add positions before settlement.

The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, says broad AI adoption could represent an underappreciated source of demand for digital assets. 

In its latest research paper, “The Machine-Native Economy,” BlackRock said the rise of AI and machine-to-machine payments could increase demand for blockchains and other programmable payment infrastructure, including stablecoins and other on-chain assets. It also sees a potential opportunity for digital assets to support the compute market, allowing claims on computing capacity to be tokenized, traded and used as collateral. 

“Together, these developments position AI as a structural catalyst for digital asset adoption and digital assets as a potential facilitator of the AI economy,” BlackRock’s Will Su, Robert Mitchnick, Jay Jacobs and William Helm wrote. “This relationship remains underappreciated and could expand the role of digital assets as core infrastructure for an increasingly autonomous digital economy.”

The crypto industry has long argued the potential link between AI and digital assets, but BlackRock’s research could bring that thesis to its broader audience of institutional investors. 

AI could drive need for machine-native payment rails

One of BlackRock’s arguments is that the rise of agentic AI could increase the demand for machine-native payment instruments. 

While existing payment rails can support some degree of automation, account setup, credentialing, and authorization could require human involvement. Meanwhile, merchant fees can make low-value transactions uneconomic and settlement and finality times could vary across providers.

BlackRock said stablecoins, native cryptocurrencies and tokenized real-world assets are well suited to high-frequency, sub-cent, machine-to-machine transactions that take place around the clock.

“Several types of digital assets may support agentic commerce, but stablecoins are likely to lead transactional use,” the authors said. 

Compute could open a new market for crypto 

The authors said there is an opportunity for digital assets in the growing market for compute — the processing power needed to train and run AI systems. 

With AI demand surging, AI companies could seek to lock in costs and providers to manage risk. Claims on that capacity could then be represented as tokens to be transferred, pledged as collateral or traded. 

Related: Australian 40-year economic outlook recognizes ‘AI revolution,’ omits crypto

“This could in turn broaden institutional investor participation and establish compute as a new opportunity for the broader digital asset ecosystem,” the authors said. They also argued that AI agents could use these markets to automatically purchase resources as needed. 

BlackRock’s thesis echoes arguments from crypto executives. In July, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pushed back against calls for crypto to pivot to AI, arguing that AI agents could stoke demand for crypto-based financial services. 

“AI being a megatrend takes nothing away from crypto,” Armstrong wrote, because AI agents will need programmable money rather than traditional banking rails. “If anything, it makes crypto more important,” he added. 

Crypto companies are already building tools to support that activity. Coinbase’s x402 protocol and Tempo’s Machine Payments Protocol have both been designed to let AI agents automatically pay for online services. 

In May, Circle introduced agent wallets and USDC payment tools, while OKX’s Agent Payments Protocol is designed to support recurring payments and arrangements in which funds are held in escrow and released after a task’s completion.

Magazine: Big Questions: Does Satoshi actually own 1.1 million Bitcoin?

The CLARITY Act has remained stalled in the U.S. Senate after a 49-50 procedural defeat, with Sen. Cynthia Lummis blaming Democratic opposition on politics surrounding President Donald Trump while Democratic negotiators say unresolved ethics rules prevented an agreement.

Senate records show that lawmakers rejected cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633 on Sept. 15. The measure needed three-fifths support to advance to debate. It received 49 votes in favor and 50 against, with one senator not voting.

Speaking at CoinDesk’s Policy & Regulation event on Sept. 22, Lummis said she was “dismayed, dumbfounded and saddened” by the result. She accused Democrats of allowing their opposition to Trump to override support for the crypto market-structure legislation, saying the industry should “pin it on the Democrats.”

Her comments describe her political assessment of why the vote failed. Democratic senators have given a different explanation, pointing to unresolved ethics provisions covering elected officials’ crypto interests and saying they still support legislation establishing federal digital-asset rules.

CLARITY Act vote failed before debate could begin

The Sept. 15 vote was not final passage of the CLARITY Act. It concerned whether the Senate should invoke cloture on the motion to proceed, allowing the chamber to begin formal consideration of the bill.

The official roll call shows all Democrats who voted opposed cloture. Democratic Sen. Chris Coons did not vote. Republicans Susan Collins, Josh Hawley and Jerry Moran voted against moving forward, while Sen. Thom Tillis cast a fourth Republican no.

Senate Daily Press records state Tillis voted no so he could make a motion to reconsider. He filed that motion shortly after the result, preserving a procedural route for leadership to bring the question back.

The proposal would establish a statutory framework governing digital commodities and divide regulatory responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The House had already passed H.R. 3633 in July 2025 by 294-134, including 78 Democratic votes.

CLARITY Act failed to secure the 60 Senate votes needed to open debate on Sept. 15, leaving questions over federal crypto market structure unresolved.

Lummis says negotiators had already made concessions

Before the vote, Republican sponsors said the latest Senate text contained more than 120 changes requested by Democrats.

Lummis, Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman and Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said the Sept. 14 draft contained 126 substantive changes sought during bipartisan negotiations. The sponsors said the package incorporated most of a Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal, expanded state attorney general enforcement and gave Treasury new authority concerning stablecoin-related deposit flight.

An earlier Sept. 10 version introduced changes governing when certain non-decentralized DeFi protocols would register with the CFTC and fall under Bank Secrecy Act requirements. It clarified the treatment of some prediction markets and credit-union digital asset activities.

Lummis argued after the failed vote that Democratic negotiators kept changing their demands after Republicans accepted earlier requests. Her office used far stronger language in a Sept. 15 statement, accusing Democrats of putting politics before consumer protections and U.S. crypto policy.

At Tuesday’s event, she said Trump had become the determining political issue for some lawmakers. Lummis credited Democratic Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Angela Alsobrooks as serious participants in negotiations despite criticizing the caucus’s final vote.

Democrats say ethics language remained unresolved

Democratic negotiators reject the claim that opposition amounted simply to hostility toward Trump. Alsobrooks said after voting no that she supports regulating digital assets but had consistently sought ethics restrictions covering the current president, future presidents and members of Congress. She said negotiators were close to an agreement before Republican leadership ended the talks immediately before the vote.

One day later, Gillibrand, Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner and Raphael Warnock said they remained committed to passing crypto market-structure legislation. Their joint statement called the vote a setback but said bipartisan discussions should continue.

President Trump’s financial interests in cryptocurrency became part of the negotiations. Reuters reported that Trump disclosed more than $1.4 billion in 2025 income from family crypto ventures, which increased Democratic demands for restrictions on officeholders profiting from digital assets. The White House agreed to some ethics provisions, but Democratic senators maintained they were insufficient.

Reuters reported another source of disagreement came from banks concerned that stablecoin provisions could encourage deposit outflows and reduce lending capacity. Banking groups pressed lawmakers for changes while the crypto industry sought rules allowing rewards and other stablecoin-linked products.

Before the vote, crypto.news examined the ethics, stablecoin yield and DeFi disputes surrounding the CLARITY Act, identifying them as the main unresolved issues capable of preventing the legislation from receiving 60 votes.

House lawmakers say market structure legislation is still needed

House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill has continued pressing for congressional action despite the Senate result.

Hill and House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson said on Sept. 15 that the failed cloture vote did not remove the need for statutory rules governing digital assets. They said Congress should continue working on legislation while the SEC and CFTC use existing authorities to issue rules and guidance.

During the Sept. 22 CoinDesk event, Hill argued that lawmakers should continue working toward a bipartisan agreement instead of treating the procedural defeat as the end of the legislation.

Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres offered a different assessment of the political dispute. He said Trump’s crypto businesses had made it harder for Democrats to support the legislation, particularly after the president launched a memecoin. Torres said he believed the bill could have attracted more bipartisan support without the political controversy surrounding Trump.

Hill acknowledged that Trump’s memecoin had complicated negotiations, while arguing that Congress still needs a market-structure law capable of regulating both the industry and potential conflicts involving elected officials.

The House vote from 2025 shows that digital-asset market structure has previously attracted support from both parties. House Clerk records show 216 Republicans and 78 Democrats voted for the legislation at that stage.

Tillis motion keeps another CLARITY Act vote possible

The Sept. 15 defeat did not formally dispose of the legislation because Tillis moved to reconsider after changing his vote to no for procedural reasons.

A motion to reconsider allows the Senate to revisit an earlier decision if leadership decides to bring the matter back. The official Senate record does not show another CLARITY cloture vote after Sept. 15, while the chamber’s cloture list through Sept. 21 continues to record the H.R. 3633 motion as failed.

Any Senate version that materially changes the House-passed legislation would eventually require agreement between the two chambers before reaching the president.

Industry participants have warned that continued delay could leave companies making product and investment decisions without a comprehensive federal market-structure statute. crypto executives said the CLARITY setback could delay U.S. product launches and commercial agreements while regulators continue working under existing law.

No new Senate cloture vote on H.R. 3633 had been posted in the official record reviewed through Sept. 23. Democratic negotiators have publicly committed to further talks, while Republican sponsors continue to support bringing the legislation back for consideration.

Circle Foundation has awarded its first U.S. grants to Accion Opportunity Fund and Pacific Community Ventures on Sept. 22, backing AI-enabled lending and data infrastructure for underserved small businesses.

Circle announced the grants during the Clinton Global Initiative Annual Meeting in New York, identifying both recipients as Community Development Financial Institutions serving small-business owners who can struggle to obtain financing through traditional channels. Circle did not disclose the dollar amount of either grant.

The new awards are Circle Foundation’s first domestic philanthropic grants. Its first international grant was announced in January for the United Nations Digital Hub of Treasury Solutions, giving the Foundation separate U.S. and global programs during its first year of active grantmaking.

Circle Foundation directs first U.S. grants toward AI tools

Circle Foundation is funding technology that the two CDFIs plan to use in loan education, data analysis and institutional decision-making.

For Accion Opportunity Fund, the grant supports Credit Compass 2.0, a tool that uses information from a loan application to provide personalized financial education. Applicants who are not ready for financing receive an explanation of why they did not qualify and a set of steps intended to improve their position for a future application.

AOF’s own data says applicants who use its educational resources are 84% more likely to qualify for a loan. The figure comes from Accion and was cited by Circle in announcing the grant; Circle did not publish the underlying sample size, methodology or an independent evaluation of that result.

Elisabeth Carpenter, Circle Internet Group’s chief strategic engagement officer and founding chair of Circle Foundation, said Credit Compass 2.0 “gives small business owners a real roadmap to capital.” Circle framed the funding around tools that can be used repeatedly across a lender’s applicant base instead of financing individual loans.

The program places AI inside a part of Circle’s business that is separate from its stablecoin products and commercial infrastructure. In related coverage, USDC settled 99.3% of x402 AI-agent payment volume during Circle’s second quarter, according to company figures, showing another area where Circle is connecting AI with financial activity. The CDFI grants involve philanthropy and small-business lending tools, not USDC-based lending.

Accion grant supports Credit Compass 2.0 for borrowers

Accion Opportunity Fund operates as a nonprofit small-business lender and has a long record within the U.S. Community Development Financial Institutions system. Treasury CDFI Fund records show Accion Opportunity Fund Community Development has received federal CDFI awards across multiple years.

Credit Compass 2.0 focuses on people who begin a financing application but may not yet meet the lender’s requirements. Instead of ending the interaction at a loan decision, the system connects application information with educational guidance tailored to the applicant’s financial position.

Luz Urrutia, CEO of Accion Opportunity Fund, said the product is designed to give business owners a “clear, honest picture of where they stand.” The Foundation’s grant will support further development and deployment, though neither Circle nor AOF has published a launch date, target user count or grant value.

Circle describes its domestic strategy as supporting systems that let mission-driven financial institutions reach more borrowers while producing better data on results. The company has not said that Circle technology, USDC or its Arc blockchain will power Credit Compass 2.0.

The distinction keeps the grant separate from Circle Internet Group’s commercial financial products. The Foundation is structured as a donor-advised fund, while Circle Internet Group remains the NYSE-listed parent that provides the equity resources supporting its philanthropy.

PCV grant backs Radiant Data Hub and 2026 Data Commons

Pacific Community Ventures will use its grant for the Radiant Data Hub, an AI-enabled data platform created for CDFIs and other mission-driven lenders.

PCV said it launched the platform after acquiring a longtime data and AI startup partner in 2025. The acquired technology included AIKKA, a voice-AI tool designed to collect qualitative feedback across major languages. PCV says the Hub combines data governance, predictive modeling and tools that help lenders analyze and present the results of their financing programs.

The organization plans another development during fall 2026. Its CDFI Data Commons is intended to give participating lenders shared benchmarking, portfolio analytics and sector-level information. PCV describes the project as the first Data Commons model built for the CDFI industry.

PCV says the model will use a nationally representative algorithm trained on mission-driven loan portfolios. Participating lenders are expected to use the system to compare portfolio performance and refine predictive underwriting models. Those planned capabilities come from PCV and remain forward-looking until the platform launches and operating results become available.

Bulbul Gupta, PCV’s president and CEO, said the organization intends to keep “human judgment and community impact at the center” as it expands AI use. PCV has paired the Radiant project with an ethical AI policy covering how community lenders use emerging technology.

Treasury CDFI Fund records show Pacific Community Ventures has participated in federal CDFI programs for years, including previous Financial Assistance and Technical Assistance awards.

Circle’s 1% equity pledge funds a ten-year structure

Circle Foundation’s financing comes from an equity commitment approved before Circle became a public company.

Circle’s 2025 annual filing disclosed that its board reserved up to 2,682,392 Class A shares in March 2025 for the Foundation. The amount represented approximately 1% of Circle’s capital stock when the board approved the commitment, with the shares available for contribution in installments over ten years.

The first equity contribution took place in November 2025, when Circle reissued 268,239 treasury shares for the Foundation and recorded a $23.1 million general and administrative expense. By June 30, 2026, Circle had transferred another 134,120 shares during the first half of the year, recording $13.1 million in related expense.

Circle’s second-quarter outlook projected 268,239 shares for Foundation contributions during all of 2026. At the July 31 reference price used in its guidance, the company estimated a roughly $22 million non-cash expense, though it cautioned that the final value depends on Circle’s stock price when each transfer occurs.

The Foundation operates as a donor-advised fund managed by Fidelity Charitable and is separately governed. Circle’s 2026 proxy says the company covers operating costs so Foundation resources can be directed toward charitable work. Employees receive up to 40 hours of paid volunteer time each year.

However, the disclosed equity commitment describes how Circle funds the Foundation; it does not reveal how much AOF or PCV received from the Sept. 22 grants.

Circle Foundation already funds UN financial infrastructure

Before the two domestic grants, Circle Foundation made its first international award in January to support the United Nations’ Digital Hub of Treasury Solutions, or DHoTS.

Circle announced that funding through UNHCR and UNDP would support technology for cross-border transfers, local-currency conversion, programmable disbursements and financial-system interoperability. The Foundation did not disclose the grant value in that announcement either.

UNHCR currently describes DHoTS as infrastructure connecting more than 150 banking and financial systems across over 100 countries. Fifteen agencies participate in the project, while its technology includes AI-driven treasury management, blockchain disbursements, digital wallets and integrations with banks and mobile-money providers.

Related work across the UN system has produced other digital-payment pilots. UNDP expanded its Stellar partnership after blockchain aid-payment pilots cut distribution costs in several markets, including a Syria pilot where reported distribution costs fell from 10% to 2%.

UNHCR says the next phase of DHoTS includes further connections with local financial systems, financial technology companies and global banks, alongside expanded on-chain treasury management and programmable payment capabilities.

“Technically, Bitcoin’s back above its 50 & 200 week moving averages, up ~29% in 35 days,” Tony Dicarlo, director of institutional propositions at RootstockLabs, said in an email to CoinDesk. “Legislatively, The SEC stepped up support of digital assets where Congress hasn’t with the Innovation Exemption filling the CLARITY gap within 24 hours, driving sharp rallies in tokenization related digital assets and improving broader confidence.”

“The American Reserve Modernization Act clearing committee last week has also reignited the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve conversation again, the furthest such a bill has gotten in Congress, though it still needs a full House and Senate vote,” he added.

The bill would place the roughly 325,000 bitcoin the government already holds, most of it seized in criminal and civil forfeitures, into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve at the Treasury, require the coins be held for at least 20 years, and mandate quarterly audited proof that they are still there.

It also orderd a study of ways to buy more without adding to the deficit.

Meanwhile, among broader markets, bonds rallied across the Asian session as oil kept sliding. Australian and New Zealand 10-year yields each fell at least three basis points and 10-year Treasury futures climbed, with cash Treasuries shut for a Japanese holiday.

Bitcoin has recovered above $86,000 after absorbing a Federal Reserve rate increase and the Senate’s failed CLARITY Act vote within the same week, prompting BitGo Research to argue that two negative catalysts failed to produce a lasting selloff.

BitGo Research said on Sept. 22 that Bitcoin behaved differently from several traditional assets after the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates on Sept. 16. Research chief Greg Cipolaro argued that the muted reaction to both monetary tightening and the legislative setback suggested negative news was being absorbed into digital asset prices.

His interpretation remains a market view. Bitcoin’s later advance coincided with renewed spot ETF demand, lower Treasury yields, softer oil prices and short covering, making it difficult to assign the rally to a single factor.

Bitcoin absorbs Fed hike after brief move toward $75,000

The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, delivering its first increase since July 2023. All 12 voting FOMC members supported the decision.

The increase itself had been widely expected before the meeting. BitGo argued that the larger surprise came from the Fed’s new rate projections, which moved higher across several future periods.

The September Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal funds rate of 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, compared with June projections of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. The 2028 median rose to 3.9% from 3.4%.

Sixteen of 18 participants projected a year-end 2026 rate above the current 3.75%-4.00% range, indicating at least one more increase under their individual forecasts.

Cipolaro wrote that “the dot plot wasn’t” fully priced even though the 25-basis-point increase itself was expected. BitGo interpreted the projections as evidence that policymakers see rates staying higher for longer, though individual FOMC projections are not policy commitments.

Traditional markets reacted more clearly to the hawkish message. Reuters reported that the Dow ended Sept. 16 down 1.21%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.44%. Shorter-term Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened following the decision.

Bitcoin moved toward $75,000 after the announcement but returned to roughly $76,000-$76,700 within hours, according to BitGo’s review.

Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in its first hike since 2023, with Bitcoin initially holding close to $76,000 after the decision.

CLARITY Act failure delivered an earlier regulatory setback

Bitcoin entered the Fed meeting already carrying another negative catalyst from Washington.

One day earlier, the U.S. Senate rejected cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The Sept. 15 vote ended 49-50, short of the three-fifths threshold required to advance the measure.

The legislation seeks to establish a federal framework dividing digital commodity oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Senator Thom Tillis voted against cloture so he could make a motion to reconsider, according to Senate floor records. No new cloture vote had been recorded on the Senate’s official list by Sept. 23.

Bitcoin fell toward the mid-$75,000 area following the procedural defeat. Crypto.news reported that BTC traded near $75,940 on Sept. 16 after briefly testing approximately $75,350-$75,500.

CLARITY Act failed its Senate procedural vote after failing to secure the 60 votes needed to begin formal debate.

BitGo treated the legislative result and Fed decision as two separate negative events arriving within roughly 24 hours. Cipolaro said Bitcoin “failing to sell off on two negative catalysts in the same week” provided a more useful signal than either event alone.

His conclusion is an interpretation of price behavior. A muted response does not establish that future regulatory or monetary setbacks have been fully priced into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin later climbs above $86,000 as demand returns

Price action after the two events has strengthened the case for resilience, while introducing several new catalysts.

Bitcoin crossed $80,000 later in the week before moving above $85,000 on Sept. 21. CoinGecko showed BTC near $86,230 on Sept. 23, approximately 13.3% higher over seven days. Its seven-day range extended from roughly $75,151 to $87,330.

The rebound occurred as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs moved from withdrawals back to inflows. Crypto.news reported approximately $746.3 million of combined ETF outflows across Sept. 15 and Sept. 16, coinciding with the CLARITY vote and Fed meeting.

Flows reversed later in the week. The funds attracted roughly $159.5 million on Sept. 17 and around $433 million the following day, nearly offsetting the earlier two-session withdrawals.

Monday produced a much larger move. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $999 million in net inflows on Sept. 21, their strongest single-day inflow since October 2025.

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for around $381 million of the total, while ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB attracted roughly $289 million and Fidelity’s FBTC drew approximately $239 million.

Bitcoin moved above $85,000 as ETF demand and short covering increased. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the rally appeared to combine renewed ETF buying with forced short liquidations.

Sondergaard cautioned that exchange flows still showed Bitcoin moving onto trading platforms, leaving additional supply available for sale if momentum weakens.

BitGo says Bitcoin behaved differently from earlier hiking cycles

BitGo’s central argument concerns Bitcoin’s response to tighter monetary policy, not simply its absolute price. Cipolaro said Bitcoin historically behaved more like a high-beta risk asset during earlier hiking periods, often weakening alongside equities when financing conditions tightened. The latest episode produced a brief drop followed by a recovery.

BitGo wrote that gold, equities, Treasury yields and the dollar initially moved in directions normally associated with a hawkish Fed surprise, while Bitcoin “didn’t play its assigned role.”

Market conditions are different from previous tightening cycles. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now provide a regulated channel for institutional and brokerage capital, while public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets and derivatives markets have grown.

Those structural differences do not establish that Bitcoin has become insensitive to rates. Higher Treasury yields can increase the return available from conventional fixed-income assets, while a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity have historically pressured cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s recent rebound coincided with some of those pressures easing. Crypto.news reported that oil prices and Treasury yields retreated as BTC moved through $85,000, while ETF inflows and short covering provided additional buying pressure.

The Bitcoin breakout above $86,000 received support from returning ETF flows, though market analysts warned that sustained spot demand would be needed to confirm the move.

The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled policy meeting runs from Oct. 27 to Oct. 28. Minutes from the Sept. 15-16 meeting are due Oct. 7, according to the central bank’s calendar.

Fed projections leave another increase possible before year-end, but the committee has not committed to a specific move at its October or December meetings. Future decisions will depend on inflation, employment, growth and other incoming economic data.

On the regulatory side, the Senate’s official record still lists the Sept. 15 CLARITY cloture motion as rejected. The motion to reconsider preserves a procedural route for another attempt, but no new vote date had been posted as of Sept. 23.

On Feb. 1, 2021, a convoy of black military vehicles rolled through Naypyidaw to detain top NLD leaders. Suu Kyi was sentenced to 33 years (now reduced to 18) on charges ranging from corruption to illegally possessing walkie-talkies. “I have been extremely lenient toward her,” Min Aung Hlaing says with a straight face. “We made every possible effort to prevent the situation from reaching this point.”

What really drove Min Aung Hlaing to seize power dominated discussions among officials in squalid detention. “We talked about it a lot,” says Turnell, who spent 650 days in custody. “There was certainly a part of the military that didn’t want any loosening of the sort under way.”

The coup is best understood as a reaction to a regime losing control. According to a leaked 2004 military dossier, the junta engineered reforms to hedge against Beijing’s overbearing influence and leverage Suu Kyi’s freedom to win Western trade, aid, and diplomatic legitimacy. But the generals miscalculated the public’s fierce devotion to “The Lady,” whose popularity proved fundamentally incompatible with the military’s absolute power. Myanmar’s military also has sprawling business interests spanning banking, mining, gems, construction, manufacturing, tobacco, tourism, transport, telecoms, and real estate. Reforms threatened this gravy train.

LayerZero has argued that regulated stablecoin issuance is central to mass adoption after Anchorage Digital selected the protocol as its preferred interoperability layer for stablecoins issued through its federally chartered bank.

LayerZero said on Sept. 22 that banks, payment providers and corporate treasury teams need digital assets that can satisfy regulatory, reserve and compliance requirements before integrating stablecoins deeply into their operations. The company published the argument one day after Anchorage Digital announced its interoperability partnership with LayerZero.

The partnership covers Anchorage Digital Bank’s stablecoin issuance platform, which currently supports products from Tether, Western Union, OSL Group and Falcon Finance. Tether’s USAT is the first stablecoin confirmed to use LayerZero’s Omnichain Fungible Token, or OFT, standard under the arrangement.

LayerZero puts regulation at center of stablecoin adoption

In its latest analysis, LayerZero argues that stablecoin technology has already solved many technical barriers around settlement speed, availability and cross-border transfers, while institutional adoption still depends heavily on trust, legal accountability and compliance.

The company wrote that “Regulated is not a constraint on what a stablecoin can be,” presenting regulated issuance as a path toward use by banks and corporate treasuries. LayerZero’s position is an assessment of institutional adoption, not a regulatory finding or guarantee that regulated stablecoins will capture most future payment activity.

For a corporate treasury, LayerZero said compliance questions can include who issues the stablecoin, how reserves are managed, whether sanctioned addresses can be restricted and which entity remains legally responsible for the asset. Payment providers face similar operational questions when connecting blockchain settlement with regulated financial services.

LayerZero’s statement that banks will not deeply integrate unregulated instruments should be read as the company’s view. U.S. law sets more specific requirements covering payment stablecoin issuance, distribution, custody and compliance, while different digital assets can fall under separate legal frameworks.

The GENIUS Act, which became law in July 2025, requires permitted payment stablecoin issuers to maintain identifiable reserves of at least 1:1 and comply with federal rules covering anti-money laundering, sanctions, customer identification and suspicious-activity monitoring.

Anchorage gives LayerZero a bank-issued stablecoin route

Anchorage Digital selected LayerZero after what the companies described as a months-long process to design interoperability infrastructure around the bank’s stablecoin issuance requirements. LayerZero will serve as the preferred cross-chain layer for assets issued through Anchorage Digital Bank, N.A.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency approved Anchorage’s conversion into a national trust bank in January 2021. Federal records continue to list Anchorage Digital Bank National Association as a nationally chartered trust bank in South Dakota.

The OCC later terminated Anchorage’s original 2021 operating agreement in February 2026. The bank remains under federal supervision and continues operating its stablecoin issuance, custody and institutional digital asset businesses.

Anchorage says stablecoins it issues can be redeemed 1:1 for U.S. dollars through its platform, with reserve reports published monthly. Its current stablecoin lineup includes Tether’s USAT, Western Union’s USDPT and OSL Group’s USDGO, among other products.

As crypto.news previously reported, Anchorage Digital’s decision gives LayerZero a cross-chain role across multiple bank-issued stablecoins, although the companies have not announced deployment dates for every asset covered by the partnership.

USAT becomes the first stablecoin under the OFT deal

Tether’s USAT is the first Anchorage-issued asset confirmed to launch with LayerZero interoperability under the new arrangement. The OFT standard is designed to maintain a unified token supply while allowing assets to move across supported networks.

LayerZero reports that OFT has processed approximately $280 billion in lifetime transfers and operates across more than 170 blockchains. The company further claims the standard handles around 87% of cross-chain transfer volume. The figures come from LayerZero and should be treated as company-reported network statistics.

USAT launched in January as Tether’s U.S.-focused dollar stablecoin, with Anchorage Digital Bank acting as issuer. The token initially deployed on Ethereum before expanding natively to Celo in July.

Tether expanded USAT to Celo as its second mainnet, adding native minting and burning alongside its original Ethereum deployment.

The Anchorage-LayerZero announcement does not state which blockchain will receive the first new USAT deployment through OFT. LayerZero said assets covered by the partnership are intended to support ecosystems including Ethereum, EVM-compatible networks and Solana, but no complete rollout schedule has been published.

LayerZero has already used the same standard outside the Anchorage partnership. South Korean custodian BDACS selected OFT this month for KRW1, its won-backed stablecoin.

KRW1 adopted LayerZero for unified cross-chain distribution across an infrastructure that LayerZero says preserves a common supply as tokens move between connected networks.

Other Anchorage stablecoins await LayerZero rollout dates

Western Union’s USDPT is among the assets named in the Anchorage agreement. The stablecoin went live on Solana in May with Anchorage Digital Bank as issuer and was designed for settlement, treasury activity and payment flows across Western Union’s network.

Western Union launched USDPT on Solana for global payment settlement before exchanges and custody providers began adding support.

OSL Group’s USDGO is another Anchorage-issued stablecoin covered by the partnership. Anchorage said the token grew from an initial $50 million Solana mint to more than $1 billion in market capitalization within roughly six months. The bank says USDGO is backed 1:1 by high-quality liquid assets and publishes monthly reserve attestations.

USDGO passing $500 million in circulating supply in June, before OSL later reported that circulation had exceeded $1 billion.

Falcon Finance’s fUSD completes the four stablecoin brands identified in LayerZero’s initial announcement. Anchorage issues fUSD for institutional settlement, collateral and treasury use, while Falcon Finance manages the surrounding product ecosystem. As previously reported, Falcon Finance launched fUSD with Anchorage Digital Bank in May.

LayerZero has not confirmed that USDPT, USDGO or fUSD are already operating through OFT under the Anchorage partnership. No exact activation dates, destination-chain lists or new contract addresses for those three assets were included in the Sept. 21 announcement.

U.S. stablecoin rules are still moving through implementation

LayerZero’s regulatory argument comes while U.S. agencies continue implementing the GENIUS Act. The law generally limits U.S. payment stablecoin issuance to permitted issuers and establishes reserve, redemption, risk-management and compliance requirements.

The OCC proposed its main implementation framework in February, covering reserves, redemption, custody, capital, operational risk and supervision for issuers under its jurisdiction. As of Sept. 23, the OCC’s published 2026 final-rule list does not show that main GENIUS Act proposal as finalized.

A separate interagency proposal covering customer identification closed for public comments on Aug. 21. Treasury and banking regulators have been developing related AML and sanctions requirements that treat permitted stablecoin issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act.

The GENIUS Act itself sets an effective date of the earlier of 18 months after July 18, 2025, or 120 days after federal regulators issue final implementing rules. Anchorage and LayerZero have not provided a deadline for completing OFT integration across all stablecoins named in their agreement. For now, USAT remains the first asset formally confirmed under the arrangement, while USDPT, USDGO and fUSD await individual LayerZero deployment details.

Six of Canada’s largest banks are developing a shared approach to move tokenized Canadian dollar (CAD) deposits between institutions, a project aimed at making payments faster and more programmable while remaining rooted in traditional banking liabilities.

According to a joint announcement released Tuesday, Bank of Montreal, CIBC, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotiabank, and TD Bank Group said the work will begin with transferring tokenized deposits across Canadian financial institutions. The banks noted that future stages could expand connectivity to other digital asset systems.

Key takeaways

• The initiative covers tokenized bank deposits, which the banks characterize as still remaining liabilities of the issuing bank.
• Initial scope is intra-Canada deposit movement between regulated financial institutions, with potential expansion later to other digital money systems.
• The banks’ move follows OSFI guidance stating tokenized deposits are not legally separate from traditional deposits.
• Canada is also rolling out a separate regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, though that ruleset does not directly cover banks and credit unions.

Why tokenized deposits are drawing bank attention

Tokenized deposits are designed to represent claims on money held at a regulated bank, typically using distributed ledger or similar technologies to create a digital representation of the deposit. In the banks’ framing, that distinction matters: the deposit remains a bank liability rather than an independent digital asset.

The project’s stated goal is to support faster payments and enable greater programmability compared with conventional settlement paths. For investors and market participants, the appeal is straightforward—systems that can reduce reconciliation friction and shorten settlement cycles without requiring banks to treat deposits as “new” financial instruments.

OSFI clarity helps remove legal ambiguity

The timing is notable. The bank initiative arrives less than two weeks after Canada’s banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), provided additional clarification on how tokenized deposits should be treated under Canadian law.

In a Sept. 10 statement, OSFI said tokenized deposits are “not legally distinct from traditional deposits,” emphasizing that the underlying technology used to deliver a financial product does not change its legal character.

This regulatory posture is important because it directly addresses one of the core hurdles for tokenized settlement models: whether “digital representation” changes the legal nature of deposits. By stating that it does not, OSFI effectively lowers compliance uncertainty for institutions that want to experiment with new rails for moving value.

How the banks’ plan fits with Canada’s stablecoin rules

Canada’s tokenized deposit work is unfolding alongside a broader national push to regulate digital money—particularly fiat-backed stablecoins.

In March, Canada enacted its Stablecoin Act as part of Bill C-15, setting out a federal framework for fiat-backed stablecoins issued by non-financial institutions. The regime requires issuers to register with the Bank of Canada, maintain reserves at least at a 1:1 level in high-quality liquid assets, and provide redemption at par. The framework is expected to take effect in 2027.

However, the scope of the stablecoin framework is limited. The law covers fiat-backed stablecoins issued by non-financial entities, while banks and credit unions already governed by prudential regulation fall outside its coverage. OSFI and market observers have also highlighted that issuers under the stablecoin regime will be prohibited from representing their stablecoins as deposits or as insured under a public deposit insurance system.

That difference creates a structural contrast between the banks’ deposit-tokenization effort and the stablecoin market: tokenized deposits remain within the banking perimeter, whereas fiat-backed stablecoins face a separate set of reserve, redemption, and marketing restrictions. Together, the two tracks suggest Canada is attempting to build a coherent regulatory architecture where “what you are” legally matters more than “what it looks like technically.”

What to watch as Phase 1 begins

The banks say the first phase will focus on moving tokenized deposits between Canadian financial institutions before potentially connecting with other digital asset systems. While the announcement did not provide granular technical details in the excerpt available, the phased approach indicates a practical priority: proving operational and settlement reliability within a tightly bounded network.

For users and counterparties, the key question will be how the system handles typical deposit lifecycle needs—such as custody, redemption mechanics, reconciliation, and settlement finality—without changing the underlying liability structure that OSFI says remains legally tied to traditional deposits.

For the broader industry, the next milestone to track is whether the project evolves beyond domestic interbank transfers into a model that meaningfully interoperates with other digital settlement networks. That will test not only technology but also regulatory boundaries—particularly around where “deposit tokenization” ends and where other forms of digital assets begin.

As Phase 1 progresses, the most important signals will likely be whether the banks can demonstrate faster, more programmable payments while staying aligned with OSFI’s legal interpretation—and whether Canada’s separate stablecoin framework influences how these tokenized deposit rails might connect to the wider ecosystem over time.

BlackRock has kept U.S. equities overweight in its Q4 2026 outlook as AI-linked earnings remain firm even while government borrowing and data-center financing push capital costs higher.

BlackRock Investment Institute said its Sept. 15 outlook centers on three themes: AI scarcity, durable income and investment opportunities that cut across traditional asset-class categories. The firm sees the AI buildout lifting economic activity and corporate earnings while consuming more capital, power, materials and balance-sheet capacity.

BlackRock sees AI spending tightening competition for capital

BlackRock said the AI investment cycle is creating a funding challenge alongside heavy sovereign borrowing. Its Q4 report says both forces are competing for the same pool of capital, raising financing costs even as spending on computing infrastructure supports growth.

A Sept. 21 follow-up put a number on that pressure. BlackRock estimated that annual U.S. financing demand “could exceed $7.5 trillion by 2030,” driven mainly by capital needs tied to AI. The firm said AI and data-center issuers account for roughly 14% of U.S. investment-grade bond issuance this year, compared with 5% in 2025 and 1% over the previous decade. BlackRock cautioned that its 2030 estimate is forward-looking and may not materialize.

Debt markets are already financing large computing projects. AI’s expanding role in investment-grade bond issuance as hyperscalers rely on public debt, private credit and operating cash flow to fund data-center construction.

BlackRock’s outlook focuses on the bottlenecks created by that spending. The firm identifies power, electricity grids, memory, chips and data centers as areas where limited supply can constrain deployment, forming the basis of its “AI scarcity” theme.

BlackRock keeps U.S. equities overweight

Despite higher yields, BlackRock remains overweight U.S. equities. The firm said earnings expectations continue to rise and AI-linked companies account for a large share of expected year-ahead growth.

BlackRock said that earnings strength has helped equities absorb higher bond yields better than they did during 2022. Its analysis uses S&P 500 company filings and an MIT-based AI-adoption framework to group companies according to their exposure to artificial intelligence.

The asset manager has not treated the entire technology sector as a single trade. Its stated preference centers on companies and infrastructure tied to areas where demand is pressing against supply, including power, chips and data-center capacity. BlackRock’s positioning remains an investment view and does not guarantee future equity returns.

Emerging-market equities received a stronger rating in the Q4 update. BlackRock upgraded the category to overweight, citing solid earnings and cheaper valuations. It said parts of Asia and Latin America provide different routes into AI infrastructure and related supply constraints.

The firm remains neutral on China while identifying selected opportunities in physical AI. BlackRock said cheaper open-source AI could increase adoption, though higher usage does not necessarily translate into stronger profits for AI providers.

Higher yields push BlackRock toward shorter bonds

BlackRock’s bond view has become more selective as government yields moved higher through the summer. The firm prefers short- and medium-term government debt over long-term bonds because longer maturities carry more interest-rate sensitivity and exposure to changes in term premiums.

Its Q4 outlook says higher yields have restored income opportunities across fixed income, but heavy issuance and inflation risks make long-duration government bonds less attractive within BlackRock’s framework. The institute is underweight long U.S. Treasuries while remaining neutral on short Treasuries, where it sees stronger risk-adjusted income.

The firm takes a similar view on long-term investment-grade credit. BlackRock prefers shorter maturities because companies refinancing debt issued at much lower rates now face higher borrowing costs. Its research says the pressure extends into AI infrastructure and private markets, where project economics depend heavily on financing structures and cash generation.

Data-center asset-backed debt is one area under scrutiny. BlackRock compared issuance with changes in five-year Treasury yields and said refinancing at current rates can pressure projects financed when borrowing costs were lower.

Crypto-linked infrastructure companies have tapped large funding packages during 2026. Galaxy Digital pursued a $3.5 billion data-center bond sale for its Texas campus, whileTeraWulf explored roughly $3.5 billion of AI financing for an Anthropic-linked project in Kentucky.

Fed rate hike reinforces BlackRock’s higher-rate outlook

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, one day after BlackRock dated its Q4 outlook. The central bank said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, capital investment remained robust and inflation was still elevated.

The increase passed by a 12-0 vote. The Fed raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90% and set the primary credit rate at 4.00%, effective Sept. 17.

BlackRock’s Sept. 21 market commentary reported that two-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose after the meeting, with the 10-year returning to roughly 5%. The firm said markets took a hawkish reading from the post-meeting remarks, while BlackRock argued that solid growth and firmer Fed credibility could still support risk assets.

Competition for capital is not confined to the United States. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that Japan’s 10-year bond yield climbed above 3%, giving Japanese investors stronger domestic returns. BlackRock has said higher Japanese yields could reduce demand for U.S. Treasuries as some capital stays at home.

The Q4 outlook says U.S. labor supply remains constrained while wage growth and underlying inflation stay elevated. BlackRock believes those conditions leave the Fed with less room to ease and preserve the possibility of “further tightening” if price pressures remain persistent.

BlackRock’s next scheduled data checkpoints include U.S. business activity and inflation expectations. Its Sept. 21 commentary identified flash purchasing managers’ indexes and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment data as indicators to watch while borrowing costs remain elevated.