Stablecoin growth poses a conditional risk to U.S. banks, S&P says

S&P Global Ratings this week published a Credit FAQ detailing how broader use of U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins could alter the economics of the U.S. banking sector. The analysis, focused on stablecoins that would operate under the GENIUS Act framework, finds that while the current threat to domestic deposits and payment rails is limited, regulatory and market shifts could change that picture materially.

The report’s evidence base: stablecoin issuance exceeded $300 billion as of May 2026, with the two largest issuers accounting for roughly 85%–90% of the total. Most dollar-backed demand today originates outside the U.S., and stablecoins remain heavily concentrated in crypto trading and settlement. Still, S&P flags several scenarios under which stablecoins could become a more direct competitor to banks for payment fees and deposit balances.

How stablecoins could affect banks’ revenue and funding

S&P identifies three primary channels by which stablecoins could influence banks. First, competition for payment flows: as stablecoins are used for merchant remittances or commercial payments, banks could lose fee income that contributes to noninterest revenue. Second, deposit composition: funds converted into stablecoins can change the mix between retail and wholesale deposits, raising funding volatility if holdings concentrate in larger, uninsured balances. Third, lending capacity and pricing: if deposit elasticities change or deposit yields rise to retain customers, banks could face margin pressure and higher funding costs, which would feed into loan pricing.

Reserve management is pivotal. Whether stablecoin issuers hold reserves as bank deposits, Treasuries or money-market instruments will determine where flows ultimately land. If reserves are primarily bank deposits, overall system deposits could be preserved even as individual banks lose share. If reserves sit in Treasuries or at the Fed via so-called “skinny” master accounts, the banking system could see a net outflow of deposits.

Regulatory guardrails will shape outcomes

The GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, created a statutory pathway for permitted payment stablecoin issuers and set strict requirements, including a 1:1 reserve ratio denominated in highly liquid assets, segregated accounts and prohibition on rehypothecation. Important implementation details remain under rulemaking by agencies such as the OCC and the FDIC. Proposed rules address licensing, reserve composition, governance, transparency and capital requirements.

Two provisions stand out as particularly consequential for banks. The first is the statutory ban on paying interest directly to stablecoin holders; the second is how regulators treat “pass-through” deposit insurance for reserves held at banks. S&P notes that even with a direct interest ban, economic incentives may still be routed indirectly — for example, through exchange fees or third-party arrangements — complicating the competitive landscape.

Risks highlighted by S&P

S&P’s FAQ lists practical risks regulators and banks must weigh. Rapid redemption pressures could force issuers to liquidate reserves at inopportune times, while nonbank issuers lack central-bank access to liquidity. There are also monetary policy considerations: a larger role for privately issued dollar-like tokens could complicate interest rate transmission. Consumer protection is another area of concern; stablecoins do not carry deposit insurance and holders may be exposed to counterparty or operational risks.

S&P recalls precedents where market stress impacted stablecoins — including a price shock to a major dollar token after a U.S. regional bank failure — underscoring the need for liquidity and redemption safeguards.

How banks are responding and what could mitigate downside

Many banks have not issued stablecoins but are experimenting with tokenized deposit products and pilot projects. Examples include bank-led pilots on public blockchains and state-level initiatives. S&P argues that banks which integrate tokenization and programmable payment features into regulated deposit products will be better positioned to retain client relationships and revenue streams.

Tokenized deposits differ from stablecoins. They remain within the regulated banking perimeter, carry existing liquidity frameworks and—where eligible—FDIC coverage. That regulatory alignment reduces certain systemic risks but limits fungibility with permissionless ecosystems that large public stablecoins currently serve.

Implications for investors and ratings

At present S&P does not incorporate stablecoin risks into bank ratings broadly, citing the early stage of adoption and the continued dominance of traditional deposits. However, the agency warns it will monitor developments closely: idiosyncratic deposit outflows or higher funding costs at individual banks could prompt rating actions. Conversely, banks that capture new business from stablecoin custody, issuance or settlement services could benefit.

Bottom line

S&P’s FAQ frames stablecoins as a technology and market development whose ultimate effect on U.S. banks depends on three levers: issuer behaviour, reserve composition, and regulatory implementation. With the GENIUS Act in place but agency rules and complementary legislation still being finalised, the near-term balance of risks and opportunities remains unsettled. For banks, the prudent course is to accelerate experimentation within compliance boundaries and to prepare funding and liquidity plans for scenarios that shift deposit composition or payment flows.

For policymakers, the trade-off is clear: rules must allow innovation that improves payment efficiency while limiting risks from liquidity mismatches, redemption runs and fragmentation of prudential safeguards.

Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun introduced a new open bounty platform where users have posted crypto rewards for bizarre promotional tasks, such as tattooing the ticker symbols of memecoins, quitting their current job live on camera or skydiving into a World Cup match.

Pump.fun introduced the new platform on Thursday, positioning it as an open marketplace to “complete bounties for ANY task and leverage the power of humans & money across the globe.” The submissions are reviewed by Pump.fun while funds are in escrow. If accepted, the bounty is paid out to the submitter.

Pump.fun said that bounties that “may be deemed as spam by X are not allowed” in its Terms and Conditions document.

Some of the highest-paid tasks included a bounty of about $57,000 to skydive into a World Cup match in a memecoin mascot, a $25,000 bounty to interview the family of Henry Nowak’s killer, and $3,000 to quit your job live on camera.

Some listings reviewed by Cointelegraph offered thousands of dollars for risky or degrading promotional acts, raising questions about moderation, safety and legal exposure

“This is a horrible market. It’s like playing with poor people’s lives and paying them to entertain you,” commented X user Old Hawk. “Yep, reminds me of Squid Game,” wrote crypto investor Fabiano.sol in response.

Source: Pump.fun

Users can rank open bounties by highest reward, time left, or those that have received the most submissions so far.

Open bounties are launched with an expiration date and include descriptions of the exact deliverables needed to fulfill the task and qualify for the payout.

Bounty to interview Henry Nowak’s Killer’s family. Source: Pump.fun

At the time of writing, the platform showed an unclaimed pool of $115,000 across 225 live bounties and 509 total bounty submissions.

Related: South Korea police probe Polymarket users over illegal gambling claims: Report

Crypto rewards fund viral stunts

The new bounty platform has already attracted listings seeking to fund unusual memecoin marketing stunts.

One task offered a $3,572 bounty to spray paint the ticker symbol “$memecoin” on a car and set it alight, with 29 days left to complete the challenge while wearing a memecoin mascot and filming the entire process.

Bounty to spray a $memecoin car & explode or set it alight. Source: Pump.fun

Another task offered a $2,630 bounty for users to tattoo the ticker symbol “$boutywork” on their foreheads, requesting video proof of the action. So far, the task has received four submissions with people completing the tattoo.

Bounty to tattoo memecoin ticker symbol on the forehead. Source: Pump.fun

Magazine: Polymarket seeks Japan entry, Harvard dumps entire ETH position: Hodler’s Digest, May 17 – 23 

BNP Paribas has forecast three Federal Reserve rate hikes beginning in December, citing stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and rising inflation pressures that the bank links in part to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

According to a Markets 360 analysis from BNP Paribas, the bank has abandoned its previous expectation for stable policy and now expects the Fed to reverse the three interest rate cuts delivered in 2025 through a series of hikes at consecutive Federal Open Market Committee meetings starting at the end of this year.

The bank said policymakers may need to remove some monetary stimulus as inflation risks intensify while labor market conditions remain firm. BNP Paribas also projected that the unemployment rate could gradually fall to 4% by year-end, a level that would give the central bank more room to focus on price pressures.

Fresh labor market data released this week appears to support the bank’s view that the economy remains resilient. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 last month, far exceeding economists’ forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.

Markets are increasingly pricing in higher rates

Following the jobs report, prediction markets and interest-rate traders moved toward a more hawkish outlook.

Data from Polymarket now shows a 52% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before the end of the year. The odds reached their highest level so far after the stronger-than-expected payroll figures were published.

At the same time, CME FedWatch data indicates a 42.7% chance that rates will be higher by December this year. Futures traders continue to expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged for most of the year, while assigning only a limited probability to additional cuts.

Those expectations have emerged as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target and geopolitical tensions raise concerns about fresh price increases.

Fed officials and former policymakers remain divided

While BNP Paribas expects tighter monetary policy, some current Federal Reserve officials have continued to argue for patience.

Recent remarks from Mary Daly highlighted a more cautious approach. According to a summary of her comments reported by crypto.news last week, Daly said restoring price stability remains essential but warned that the Fed cannot achieve that objective by damaging the economy.

Daly has also argued in previous speeches that policymakers are in a position to wait for more data before making major policy changes.

Her stance contrasts with concerns raised by former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who has repeatedly warned that the central bank risks undermining its credibility if inflation remains above its 2% target for too long.

In recent commentary and interviews, Dudley argued that inflation has exceeded the Fed’s objective for more than five years, yet policymakers have increasingly discussed rate cuts. He has also maintained that the neutral interest rate, often referred to as r*, is likely higher than officials currently assume, suggesting monetary policy may not be as restrictive as it appears.

According to Dudley, the bigger danger lies in inflation expectations becoming entrenched. He has cautioned that households and financial markets could begin treating inflation in the 3% to 5% range as normal if price growth stays elevated for an extended period. In his view, bringing inflation back to target under those conditions could eventually require much more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve.

TLDR:

• The SEC is developing a framework to list and trade tokenized securities under the “innovation without arbitrage” principle.
• SEC and CFTC are jointly identifying rulebook gaps covering swap reporting, portfolio margining, and product definitions.
• The CFTC approved Kalshi’s proposal to trade Bitcoin perpetual futures, leaving other assets open for case-by-case review.
• The SEC is targeting a 23-by-5 equity market trading transition and reviewing legacy rules like Regulation NMS by year-end.

The SEC is actively developing a framework for the listing and trading of tokenized securities, guided by the principle of “innovation without arbitrage.”

SEC Trading and Markets Director Jamie Selway outlined this direction at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference on June 4, 2026, in New York.

The framework aims to modernize U.S. capital markets while protecting existing market structure. Regulators are working to ensure new entrants and legacy providers are treated equally under the new rules.

SEC Pushes Forward on Tokenized Securities Framework

Chairman Atkins has directed the Division of Trading and Markets to develop a framework for tokenized securities listing and trading.

The guiding principle, “innovation without arbitrage,” is designed to prevent unfair advantages for either new or established market participants.

Selway described the principle plainly, saying the Division aims “to advantage neither new entrants nor legacy providers over the other.”

The SEC’s goal is to foster a healthy ecosystem for tokenized securities without disrupting existing, well-functioning markets.

The Division has been engaging with both traditional finance incumbents and decentralized finance new entrants. These conversations span the full range of tokenized securities operations, covering primary issuance, secondary trading, and custody.

Staff statements on custody and trading have already been issued as part of this groundwork. The Division is now working toward an “innovation exemption” recommendation to allow certain trading venues to trade tokenized securities.

Major market infrastructure players are already responding to this regulatory direction. The DTCC announced plans to facilitate limited production trades of tokenized securities through DTC’s service starting July 2026. A broader rollout is planned for October 2026.

Nasdaq and the NYSE have also separately announced plans to develop platforms for trading and on-chain settlement of tokenized securities.

Selway also confirmed the SEC is working to facilitate a transition to 23-by-5 equity market operation by the end of 2026. The Division is additionally reviewing legacy rules such as Regulation NMS and the Consolidated Audit Trail for modernization.

These efforts are part of a broader push to drive efficiency and competition across U.S. capital markets. Together, these steps position the SEC as an active architect of next-generation market infrastructure.

SEC-CFTC Coordination Shapes the Path for Tokenized Markets

The tokenized securities framework does not exist in isolation. The SEC and CFTC are coordinating in parallel on rules that touch both agencies’ jurisdictions.

Chairman Atkins stated directly that “firms should not be shuffled back and forth between regulators when a product touches elements of both regulatory frameworks.” He added that “where jurisdiction overlaps, the most effective response is a coordinated one.”

Both agencies are jointly identifying areas where their rulebooks lack clarity or compatibility. Swap and security-based swap data reporting, portfolio margining, and product definitions have been identified as initial focus areas.

The SEC also approved Nasdaq PHLX’s proposal to list cash-settled Bitcoin index options on May 22. These actions reflect a deliberate, step-by-step approach to building a coherent cross-agency framework.

Selway stressed two core responsibilities that must anchor the tokenized securities framework. Regulators must clearly distinguish investing from gambling, even as technology blurs traditional boundaries.

They must also prevent excessive leverage from reaching unsophisticated retail investors through new tokenized products.

Selway put it directly, warning against “extending unhealthy levels of leverage to the unsophisticated and unsuspecting” as markets evolve.

Industry participants were also urged to engage constructively rather than exploit jurisdictional gaps. Selway warned that venue shopping and unreasonable expectations will undermine harmonization efforts. He called on firms to bring forward their best ideas for reducing regulatory friction through public input.

He framed the stakes clearly, saying that by “delivering true innovations” and avoiding key pitfalls, industry organizations “can deliver value to your clients, your investors, your world-leading industry, and our great Nation.”

Strategy’s sale of 32 Bitcoin shouldn’t have mattered. The company still holds hundreds of thousands of BTC, and the transaction barely moved the needle on its balance sheet. Yet the market reaction was swift, exposing how much of the Bitcoin treasury trade had been built on a simple assumption: companies buy Bitcoin… and they never sell it.

Elsewhere in crypto this week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon escalated his fight against the industry’s preferred market structure bill and a French Bitcoin treasury company pushed the limits of capital formation by asking shareholders to approve a massive $122 billion fundraising mandate.

Strategy’s Bitcoin sale tests treasury trade

Michael Saylor’s Strategy rattled the market after disclosing the sale of 32 Bitcoin — its first reported BTC liquidation outside a 2022 tax-related transaction. 

The sale itself was tiny relative to the company’s massive holdings, but it challenged the long-standing narrative that Strategy would only accumulate Bitcoin and never sell. Shares of MSTR fell sharply following the disclosure as investors reassessed the assumptions underpinning the Bitcoin treasury model.

“The market learned that Strategy is no longer read as a pure one-way accumulation vehicle,” Delphi Digital wrote in a market summary. 

“The old ‘never sell’ meme is now broken in practice, not just in conference call language,” Delphi added. 

The transaction has reignited debate over how Bitcoin treasury companies should be valued. While Strategy remains committed to growing its Bitcoin-per-share metric, the sale served as a reminder that even the most committed corporate hodlers face financial realities.

Source: Michael Saylor

JPMorgan CEO draws a line in the sand on CLARITY

The battle over US crypto regulation intensified after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said banks would oppose the latest version of the CLARITY Act, arguing that crypto companies are being granted privileges without being subject to the same regulatory burdens as traditional financial institutions. 

Dimon specifically criticized provisions that would allow crypto companies to offer interest-bearing products while avoiding the capital and compliance requirements imposed on banks.

The comments underscore a growing divide between the banking sector and the crypto industry as lawmakers push for market structure legislation. Supporters see CLARITY as a long-awaited framework that would provide regulatory certainty and encourage innovation. Critics, however, argue that the bill risks creating an uneven playing field. 

Jamie Dimon said the banking industry opposes the latest CLARITY markup. Source: Fox Business

Capital B seeks approval for $122 billion Bitcoin war chest

Bitcoin treasury company Capital B is asking shareholders to approve a sweeping expansion of its fundraising capacity, seeking authorization to issue up to 5 billion euros ($5.8 billion) in new equity and roughly $116 billion in credit instruments to finance future Bitcoin purchases.

The proposal, which will be voted on at Capital B’s June 17 shareholder meeting, would give management access to a vastly larger pool of capital than it has raised to date. According to the company, Capital B has secured about $325 million in funding so far, including a recent raise backed by Blockstream CEO Adam Back and asset manager TOBAM.

The company purchased 192 BTC for $15.2 million last month and added another 4 BTC on Monday, bringing its total holdings to 3,139 BTC.

Source: Alexandre Laizet

Coinbase invests in ProShares stablecoin reserve ETF

Coinbase has invested an undisclosed amount in the ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM), a fund designed to hold assets that qualify as stablecoin reserves under the GENIUS Act.

The exchange-traded fund provides exposure to the cash, bank deposits and short-term US Treasury securities that payment stablecoin issuers are required to hold under the legislation. The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoins be backed by highly liquid reserves, creating demand for investment products tied to those assets.

The investment highlights growing interest in stablecoin reserve assets as the US moves closer to establishing a federal regulatory framework for the sector. Stablecoin issuers are expected to become major buyers of Treasury bills and other highly liquid securities if adoption continues to grow.

Source: ProShares

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Securitize has moved closer to entering public markets after securing regulatory clearance for its planned SPAC merger.

According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency has declared effective the S-4 registration tied to Securitize’s proposed combination with Cantor Equity Partners II, clearing the deal for a shareholder vote scheduled for June 29. If investors approve the transaction, the company said it expects to finalize the merger soon after and begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “SECZ.”

SPAC route advances toward listing

Through the planned merger, Securitize will combine with Cantor Equity Partners II, a special purpose acquisition company backed by an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald. Company statements confirm the resulting entity will operate as Securitize Corp. once listed.

From a regulatory standpoint, the SEC’s approval allows the process to move into its final stage. The shareholder vote now becomes the key hurdle before the listing proceeds. Securitize Chief Executive Carlos Domingo said in a company release that the milestone supports the firm’s effort to expand tokenization infrastructure at a global scale.

At a time when several crypto firms have delayed public listings, including reported pauses by Kraken and Consensys, Securitize’s progress highlights a different trajectory for companies tied to real-world asset tokenization.

Institutional demand shapes tokenization growth

Across financial markets, tokenization continues to attract major institutions. Data from RWA.xyz shows the tokenized asset sector has grown past $30 billion after nearly tripling within a year. Projections from Citigroup estimate the market could reach $5.5 trillion by 2030, while a joint study by Boston Consulting Group and Ripple suggests a potential $18.9 trillion market by 2033.

Participation from firms such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, JPMorgan Chase, and Fidelity Investments has expanded the sector’s reach into traditional finance. These institutions are exploring blockchain-based versions of bonds, funds, and private credit, with advocates pointing to faster settlement and lower operating costs.

Securitize’s role in market infrastructure

Operating within this environment, Securitize has built systems that support token issuance, fund administration, and secondary trading. The company reports it services roughly 650 funds through its Securitize Fund Services platform and oversees more than $4 billion in tokenized assets.

Its partnerships include infrastructure support for firms such as Apollo Global Management, KKR, Hamilton Lane, and VanEck. In addition, collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange has focused on developing tokenized equities platforms.

A notable product tied to the firm is BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, launched in 2024 as a tokenized money market fund and now counted among the largest tokenized Treasury offerings.

Recent disclosures show Securitize raised $47 million in a 2024 funding round led by BlackRock. Operational data from the company indicates it recorded $1.9 billion in transaction volume during the first quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, additional partnerships, including work with Computershare on issuer-backed tokenized shares, continue to expand its product range. As the June shareholder vote approaches, the outcome will determine whether Securitize becomes one of the first major tokenization firms to trade publicly in U.S. markets.

XRP is no longer fighting over $1.20. It’s fighting over whether $1.10 holds. The latest selloff came with the kind of volume usually associated with forced liquidations rather than orderly selling, pushing the token to its weakest levels in months before dip buyers finally showed up near $1.09.

News Background

• XRP ETFs recorded roughly $4 million in inflows after seeing their first daily outflow in three weeks, bringing cumulative inflows to around $1.5 billion.

• Market sentiment deteriorated sharply across crypto, with the Fear & Greed Index falling into extreme fear territory as traders reacted to broader macro uncertainty.

• XRP also slipped behind USDC in market capitalization rankings after the selloff pushed its value below $75 billion.

Price Action Summary

• XRP fell from $1.17 to $1.11 during the 24-hour session, touching lows near $1.09 before recovering slightly.

• The biggest move came during the June 5 06:00 UTC session, when volume surged to 268.2 million XRP and accelerated the breakdown.

• A failed rally toward $1.133 later reversed sharply, sending price to fresh lows before buyers stepped in near $1.10.

Technical Analysis

• The key takeaway is that support levels keep becoming resistance. What was a buying zone around $1.20-$1.25 just days ago is now where sellers are reappearing.

• The move below $1.10 briefly pushed XRP into one of the most oversold conditions seen in years, with weekly RSI readings reaching levels that historically appeared near major cycle lows.

• Even so, oversold does not automatically mean bullish. Markets can stay oversold for longer than traders expect, especially during liquidation-driven declines.

• The bounce from $1.09 showed signs of seller exhaustion, but recovery volume remained weaker than the selling that preceded it.

What traders should watch

• $1.09-$1.10 is now the most important support zone on the chart. Losing it would shift focus toward the $0.92 area highlighted by several analysts.

• $1.12-$1.13 becomes the first recovery zone XRP needs to reclaim before any stabilization narrative gains credibility.

• The broader trend remains bearish until XRP starts reclaiming former support levels rather than simply bouncing from oversold conditions.

• Traders looking for evidence of a durable bottom will likely want to see stronger volume on rebounds than on selloffs, something the market has not yet delivered.

Michael Saylor has urged Bitcoin supporters to balance purity, adoption, innovation, and stability as the asset trades near its weakest levels in almost two years.

Saylor, writing in a Friday post on X, said Bitcoin’s future should not depend on one dominant ideology. The Strategy chairman said the network needs several groups with different priorities, including Maximalists, Capitalists, Technologists, and Fundamentalists.

According to Saylor, each group serves a separate role in protecting Bitcoin’s long-term strength. He said the debate should not force a choice between “purity and adoption” or between “innovation and stability.” Instead, Saylor wrote that Bitcoin must remain true to its core while companies, banks, and governments build around it.