Crypto World
RIVER coin price bounces back 27%: analysts fear it could be a dead bounce
- RIVER coin price has surged 27% on bridge launch and new exchange listing.
- The cryptocurrency’s volume has spiked 126%, confirming strong buyer interest.
- Key support lies at $15.40, and a break below risks causing a $14.09 pullback.
RIVER coin has surged 27.4% in the past 24 hours, reaching an intraday high of $17.94.
The sudden spike comes after a period of relative stagnation, sharply outperforming a broader flat crypto market.
Traders are cautiously optimistic, but some analysts warn this could be a short-lived recovery.
The catalysts behind the rally
The primary driver of the rally was the launch of RIVER’s official cross-chain bridge.
This bridge allows seamless asset transfers between Ethereum, Base, and BNB Chain.
By enabling smoother liquidity flows, it addresses a core challenge faced by many DeFi projects.
At the same time, RIVER went live on LBank, a major centralised exchange, sparking fresh market activity.
$RIVER spot trading is live on @LBank_Exchange pic.twitter.com/U7HCPJR2dG
— River (@RiverdotInc) February 9, 2026
The exchange listing was accompanied by a $50,000 trading competition, which boosted short-term trading volume.
Combined, these events enhanced the token’s utility and made it easier for investors to access RIVER.
Volume data confirms the strength of the move, with a 126% surge in 24-hour trading volume to $83 million.
This shows that the rally was driven by genuine buying interest rather than thin order books.
The token also benefited from positive sentiment in the broader DeFi sector, which continues to attract investor attention.
RIVER coin price outlook
Analysts are watching key price levels closely to gauge the sustainability of the bounce.
If RIVER can hold above $15.40, it could attempt to reach a near-term target of $20.65.
This would represent a continuation of the current bullish momentum and strengthen confidence in the token’s recovery.
However, a break below $14.09 could signal that the rally has lost steam.
In that case, the coin may experience a pullback toward $12.50, testing lower support levels.
Traders are advised to monitor volume and bridge adoption as indicators of whether the move has lasting strength.
The rally also coincides with broader infrastructure upgrades, which could attract long-term users.
The cross-chain bridge is designed to simplify liquidity access and reduce fragmentation across networks.
Sustained adoption of this feature will be critical for supporting higher prices in the coming months.
Despite these positive factors, some analysts caution that the rebound could be a “dead mouse bounce.”
They argue that while short-term catalysts are present, the coin is still trading far below its all-time high of $87.73 that it hit at the beginning of the year 2026.
Price action remains fragile, and a failure to maintain support levels could result in another rapid decline.
Investors are therefore advised to weigh the recent gains against the risk of a correction.
The combination of technical indicators, exchange activity, and sector momentum will likely determine the next phase.
For now, the market is watching closely to see whether RIVER can convert its recent spike into a sustainable uptrend.
Gold is hemorrhaging value. Spot gold price climbed 2.2% to $4,687/oz, but that bounce barely registers against a 12% monthly collapse that has the metal on track for its worst monthly performance since October 2008, which resulted in a more grim-looking prediction.
The safe-haven narrative is cracking.
The catalyst yesterday was a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump signaled willingness to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed.
“Gold prices are bouncing in early Asia-Pacific trade after U.S. President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran… That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 1.2% to $4,611.30 in tandem. The dollar eased, providing additional tailwind to greenback-denominated bullion.
Despite the daily reprieve, the macro structure driving gold’s rout remains intact, and Fed policy signals from Powell continue pointing toward a higher-for-longer rate environment that structurally penalizes non-yielding assets.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
Gold Price Prediction: Can XAU Reclaim $5,000 Before the Fed Blinks?
Today’s relief rally puts spot gold close to $4,700, up 1.5% intraday. This figure looks strong in isolation against March’s 13% drawdown from prior highs above $5,000.
Spivak flagged a critical technical signal: “Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk.”
Falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, that’s the bull mechanism. Quarterly gains still hold at approximately 5%, confirming the longer-term trend hasn’t broken.
For the gold price, if de-escalation holds, Treasury yields slide further, Fed language softens on inflation, gold can re-targets $4,800–$5,000 resistance recovery. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400/oz end-2026 target anchored by central bank accumulation and eventual easing.
However, if energy prices re-accelerate, the Fed signals no cuts through year-end, and Hormuz disruption deepens, a break below $4,300 opens the door to the low $4,000s.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as Gold Tests Key Resistance
Gold’s struggle to reclaim $5,000 raises an uncomfortable question for capital allocators: if the canonical safe haven is down 13% in a month, where does risk-adjusted opportunity actually live?
For us, watching macro dysfunction erode established stores of value, early-stage infrastructure plays with asymmetric upside are drawing renewed attention, particularly those solving real structural problems across fragmented liquidity markets.
A new layer emerges. Only a few see it first. — LiquidChain (@getliquidchain) March 24, 2026
The future is LiquidChain 
⟁https://t.co/vqvBcdSj94 pic.twitter.com/R7ZeZ0NPGl
LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project positioning itself as the cross-chain liquidity layer — fusing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment. The architecture centers on four components: Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and Deploy-Once Architecture, letting developers deploy once and access all three ecosystems simultaneously.
The presale is currently priced at $0.01445, with more than $630K raised to date, with more than 1700% APY in staking bonus.
For those looking for a gold alternative, research LiquidChain’s presale structure here.
This article is not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.
The post Gold Price Prediction: Worst Month in 17 Years fo Save Haven Rock appeared first on Cryptonews.
Jesse Spiro, the head of government affairs at stablecoin issuer Tether, will be chairing the organization of a crypto-backed Super political action committee (PAC) to “actively support candidates” in the 2026 US midterm elections and beyond.
In a Wednesday announcement, the Fellowship PAC, a committee that launched in August 2025 and later claimed to have raised “over $100 million” from undisclosed backers aligned with the crypto industry, said that Spiro would become chair ahead of its first political endorsements for the 2026 elections.
The PAC said that it would support candidates in favor of innovation, regulatory clarity for digital assets, and open markets.
”We have an opportunity to ensure the United States remains the global hub for builders, entrepreneurs, and technological progress,” said Spiro. “Fellowship PAC is committed to supporting leaders who understand what’s at stake and are willing to act.”
The addition of a crypto-aligned Super PAC with potentially hundreds of millions of dollars could be used to influence US elections. The Fairshake PAC, backed by Ripple Labs and Coinbase, spent more than $130 million on media buys in the 2024 elections, and reported having $193 million ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Related: Crypto awareness tops 80% among young people in UK: Coinbase survey
Fellowship filed a statement of organization with the US Federal Election Commission (FEC) on Aug. 7 and had reported no contributions or expenditures as of Dec. 31. Although the PAC has claimed to have more than $100 million in its war chest, it was unclear at the time of publication who may be responsible for funding the committee.
Cointelegraph did not receive an immediate response to requests for comment by the PAC.
Money from the crypto industry may already have been a factor in US state primaries, which kicked off in March. Although some of the industry-aligned candidates did not win their races in Illinois, there are more than seven months before the 2026 general election, giving PACs like Fairshake, Fellowship, and others the opportunity to sway voters.
A debate on stablecoin yield is still shadowing a congressional crypto bill
Tether, the issuer behind the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, USDt (USDT), is likely to be affected by legislation being considered by US lawmakers in the Senate.
The House of Representatives passed a digital asset market structure bill in July 2025 called the CLARITY Act, which has effectively been stalled in the Senate amid debate over stablecoin rewards, tokenized equities, ethics and other issues.
As of Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee had not rescheduled a markup on the bill which it postponed in January. It’s unclear if or when the bill could head to the full chamber for a vote.
Crypto markets rose as oil prices retreated under $100 a barrel on growing expectations that the conflict could wind down within weeks.
Bitcoin 2026 Overview
Bitcoin traded near $68,000 as organizers confirmed a major addition to Bitcoin 2026. The event will host Afroman as a headline speaker and performer. The conference will take place April 27–29 in Las Vegas.
The announcement signals a growing overlap between culture and decentralized technology narratives. It also reflects Bitcoin’s expanding role beyond finance into expression and ownership debates. Organizers expect strong engagement from global attendees and industry participants.
The event will occur at The Venetian Resort and feature hundreds of speakers. More than 30,000 attendees are expected to participate across multiple stages. The program will combine education, entertainment, and industry networking.
Legal Victory Shapes Afroman’s Bitcoin 2026 Appearance
Afroman gained renewed attention after a legal battle tied to a police raid in 2022. Authorities searched his home but reportedly found no evidence of wrongdoing. He later used personal footage to create music and commentary about the incident.
The conflict grew when some of the officers took a defamation case against him asking for monetary damages. They asked, as well, to get rid of the artist’s content on public platforms. Despite that, the jury acquitted Afroman and put an end to the case. The result opened up more talk about the rights of creators and the need for public accountability. Afroman saw the verdict as a larger victory for freedom of speech. This viewpoint is in fact very similar to the core philosophy of Bitcoin. More and more, the culture around Bitcoin is making its way into art and expression. The supporters of Bitcoin, as a rule, underline the freedom, openness, and getting the full control over the personal content. Such principles have left their mark not only on the culture but also on the domain of arts. Consequently, in a bold step, the current events deliberately feature creators boldly confronting the authorities and institutions.
Afroman’s involvement reflects the shift in the ecosystem’s trajectory. His unique style is a fusion of music, humor, and insightful commentary on society. Such a message deeply resonates with an audience that supports decentralization of systems. Bitcoin event organizers keep identifying the events as technical gatherings only. They want to put the spotlight on real-life applications and cultural relevance. In this way, the appeal will be extended not only to the developers and financial players.
Exhibition and Global Conference Growth
The conference will feature Afroman’s American flag suit as part of a specially curated art exhibition. It is a protest and resistance symbol from his legal fight. It is also going to be auctioned on a special platform. The exhibition will present topics such as power, reaction, and artistic rebellion. It will feature works tied to Bitcoin’s short but impactful history. These elements aim to connect technology with human stories.
Bitcoin Conference continues to expand its global footprint. Earlier editions managed to draw tens of thousands of people from various regions. The next events are scheduled to cover Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The Las Vegas meeting will act as a main center for the 2026 programs. It will unite developers, entrepreneurs, and artists. Such a blend further helps positioning Bitcoin as a financial and social movement.
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) stock jumped 12% on March 31 to close at $19.78, its strongest single-session gain in a while, as a sharp shift in options positioning coincided with B. Riley raising its price target to $33 from $30.
The move pushed BitMine stock close to the upper trendline of a descending channel that has contained the price since early December. However, the nature of the rally and the absence of institutional buying pressure raise the question of whether this attempt will succeed where prior ones failed.
A Short Squeeze Drove the 12% Move, Not Fresh Buying
The put-call ratio, which compares bearish put option volume to bullish call option volume, tells the story of what happened between Friday and Monday.
On March 27, the volume ratio spiked to 1.04, meaning put trading exceeded call trading for the first time in weeks. The open interest ratio sat at 0.47. That is aggressive bearish positioning heading into the weekend. By March 31, the volume ratio had collapsed to 0.52 while the open interest ratio remained flat at 0.47.
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The unchanged open interest means no significant new positions were opened. The volume ratio collapse means existing bearish bets were being closed. That combination points to a classic short squeeze where traders covering put positions drove the BMNR stock price higher rather than new buyers entering with fresh conviction.
If the put-call ratio now rises again alongside rising open interest, it would signal new bearish positions being opened against the rally, which could stall the move on sentiment. However, the squeeze coincided with a fundamental catalyst that could extend the bounce.
ETH Treasury Growth and B. Riley’s $33 Target Support the Bull Case
BitMine added 71,179 ETH last week, its largest weekly purchase of 2026. That five-week buying streak pushed total holdings to 4.73 million ETH, representing 3.92% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. The company’s total crypto and cash treasury now stands at $10.7 billion, with approximately $177 million in annualized staking revenue.
B. Riley raised its BitMine stock price target to $33 from $30 on March 26, maintaining a Buy rating. The firm cited the launch of MAVAN, BitMine’s institutional-grade Ethereum staking platform, and noted that approximately 67% of holdings are already staked with potential annualized rewards of roughly $285 million at full deployment.
With Ethereum up 3.6% over the past 24 hours, the BitMine stock price has an external tailwind. ETH strength directly benefits BitMine’s treasury valuation and staking revenue outlook.
Yet the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-weighted indicator that tracks institutional buying and selling pressure, remains below the zero line on the daily chart. Between February 23 and March 30, CMF trended lower alongside price.
That pattern shows large money has not backed this rally with sustained buying. The bounce is running on short covering and Ethereum momentum rather than direct institutional accumulation into BMNR shares.
BitMine Stock Still Needs $21 to Confirm a Channel Breakout
Despite the short squeeze and fundamental tailwinds, the daily chart shows BitMine stock pressing against the same upper trendline of a descending channel that has rejected every breakout attempt since December. Early January and mid-March also saw a failed attempt out of this 4-month trap.
A bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, does support the case for a broader reversal now. Between November 21 and March 30, price trended lower while RSI printed a higher low. That divergence suggests selling momentum is weakening even as price continued to fall. Combined with the Ethereum tailwind and MAVAN catalyst, it gives bulls a technical reason to stay engaged.
However, a daily close above $21.22 (the $21 zone) is needed to confirm that the upper trendline has broken. That level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and would represent a 7% move from the current close. A push above $22.01 would strengthen the breakout case and open a path toward $24.56 and potentially $28.69. Beyond that sits B. Riley’s upgraded target.
On the downside, failure to hold $19.46 would signal that the squeeze has exhausted itself. A close below $17.88 reopens the lower channel for BMNR stock and puts the $17.12 support at risk.
The $21 zone now separates a confirmed channel breakout fueled by ETH momentum and MAVAN staking revenue from another failed trendline rejection that sends BitMine stock price back toward $17.88.
The post BitMine Stock Gets a Bullish Upgrade, but a 4-Month Trap Still Holds appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Key points:
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Buyers will have to sustain Bitcoin above $69,000 to gain the upper hand in the short term.
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Select major altcoins may break above their near-term resistance, signaling buying at lower levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing resistance at $69,000, but the bulls continue to exert pressure. A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that the US spot BTC exchange-traded funds have recorded $186.9 million in inflows this week, according to Farside Investors data.
Is this a good level to buy BTC, or could it fall further? That’s a question troubling investors. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said in a post on X that BTC’s previous market cycles suggest a historical bottom may form “in late September or early October 2026.”
Veteran trader Peter Brandt also believes that BTC could bottom in September or October. Brandt told Cointelegraph that a complete recovery to a new all-time high may happen only by the second quarter of 2027 but he added that it “is all guesswork.”
Could BTC and select major altcoins rise above their overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
Buyers are attempting to sustain BTC above the moving averages, indicating solid buying at lower levels.
If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair may remain inside the bullish ascending triangle pattern. Buyers will have to thrust the BTC price above the $76,000 level to seize control. The pair may then surge to the $84,000 level.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the BTC price turns down and breaks below the $65,000 level. That will invalidate the positive setup, resulting in long liquidation. The pair may then tumble to the $62,500 to $60,000 support zone.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) closed above the 20-day exponential moving average ($2,085) on Tuesday, and the bulls are attempting to push the price to the $2,200 overhead resistance.
If buyers overcome the barrier at $2,200, the ETH/USDT pair is expected to pick up momentum and rise to $2,400. Sellers will attempt to vigorously defend the $2,400 level, as a close above it opens the gates for a rally to the $3,050 level.
Time is running out for the bears. They will have to quickly pull the price below the $1,916 level to stay in the game. If they do that, the ETH price may plummet to the critical $1,750 support.
BNB price prediction
Buyers are attempting to push BNB (BNB) above the moving averages, but the bears have held their ground.
Sellers will strive to pull the BNB price below the immediate support at $596. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair may slip to the vital support at $570. Buyers are expected to defend the $570 level with all their might, as a close below it signals the resumption of the downtrend. The next stop on the downside may be $500.
Alternatively, a close above the moving averages may push the price to the stiff overhead resistance of $687. A close above the $687 level will be the first sign of strength. The pair may then march to $730 and thereafter to $790.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) is trying to form a base near the $1.29 level, but the bulls are struggling to push and maintain the price above the moving averages.
That suggests the bears have kept up the pressure. If the XRP price turns down and breaks below the $1.27 level, it signals that bears have overpowered the bulls. The XRP/USDT pair may then decline to the $1.11 level.
On the contrary, a break above the moving averages indicates that the bulls are back in the game. The pair may rise to the breakdown level of $1.61 and then to the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line signals a potential trend change.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is attempting to form a floor at the $76 level, but the relief rally is facing stiff resistance at the moving averages.
The flattish moving averages and the relative strength index just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price breaks above the moving averages, the bulls will endeavor to push the SOL/USDT pair above the $95 resistance. If they succeed, the rally may extend to the $117 level.
Contrarily, if the SOL price turns down sharply from the $95 level, it suggests that the range-bound action may continue for a while. Sellers will be back in command on a close below the $76 level.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) remains stuck between the moving averages and the critical $0.09 support, but the tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
If buyers thrust the DOGE price above the moving averages, the relief rally may reach $0.10 and then the $0.12 resistance. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.12 level. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the DOGE/USDT pair may consolidate between $0.09 and $0.12 for a few more days.
Sellers will seize control on a close below the $0.09 level. The pair may then sink to the Feb. 6 low of $0.08 and eventually to the $0.06 level.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) fell below the breakout level of $36.77 on Tuesday, but the bears are struggling to sustain the lower levels.
The bulls are attempting to make a comeback by swiftly pushing the HYPE price back above the 20-day EMA ($37.57). If they can pull it off, the HYPE/USDT pair may rise to $41.59 and subsequently to the $43.76 level. Sellers will attempt to halt the up move at $43.76, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may climb to $50.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day simple moving average ($33.97). That suggests the market has rejected the break above the $36.77 level.
Related: Strategy set to resume buying Bitcoin via STRC: Will BTC price hit $80K?
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) is facing resistance at the $0.25 level, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears.
Buyers will attempt to overcome the barrier at the moving averages. If they do that, the ADA/USDT pair may reach the downtrend line, which is a crucial resistance to watch out for. A close above the downtrend line signals a potential short-term trend change.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the moving averages and pull the ADA price below the $0.23 level. If that happens, the pair may slide to the Feb. 6 low of $0.22.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been trading between the 50-day SMA ($485) and the $443 support for the past few days.
The failure of the bulls to clear the 50-day SMA suggests that the bears are active at higher levels. Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the BCH price below the $443 level. If they manage to do that, the BCH/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. That opens the doors for a drop to the $375 level.
Instead, if buyers drive the price above the 50-day SMA, it signals demand at lower levels. The pair may then ascend to the $520 to $540 zone.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) is facing resistance at the moving averages, but a positive sign is that the bulls have kept up the pressure.
That improves the prospects of a close above the moving averages. If that happens, the LINK price may rally toward the $10 level. Sellers will attempt to defend the $10 level and keep the LINK/USDT pair range-bound for some more time.
The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above $10 or below $8. If buyers pierce the $10 level, the pair may rise to $10.94 and later to the $11.61 level. Alternatively, a drop below the $8 support may sink the price to $7.15 and then to $6.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The Uniswap Foundation held $85.8 million in total assets at the end of 2025, split between $49.9 million in cash and stablecoins, 15.1 million UNI tokens, and 240 ETH, according to unaudited summary financials published Tuesday.
The foundation committed $26 million in new grants during 2025 and disbursed $11 million against prior commitments. In Q4 alone, $5.8 million in new grants were committed and $2.1 million disbursed. Operating expenses for the full year came to $9.7 million, excluding employee token awards of 450,000 UNI.
On the revenue side, the foundation received 20.3 million UNI, worth roughly $114 million at year-end prices, from the Uniswap Treasury through the Uniswap Unleashed governance proposal. It also earned $1.7 million in interest on fiat holdings.
The numbers reflect the foundation’s financial position before the UNIfication proposal, approved by governance on Dec. 26, which restructures the relationship between the foundation and the broader Uniswap ecosystem. A new legal entity called DUNI was formed as part of that process.
Of the total funds, $106.2 million was earmarked for grants ($87.5 million to be committed, $18.7 million reserved for previously committed grants awaiting disbursement) and $26.3 million for operations and employee token awards.
The projected runway extended through January 2027, though the foundation said that timeline will be updated in its Q1 2026 report to reflect the post-UNIfication organizational changes.
The report lands alongside a year of significant protocol milestones, including the launch of Uniswap v4, which introduced hooks and a programmable architecture for on-chain liquidity, and Unichain, a dedicated chain for high-performance DeFi applications. The foundation said more than 1,500 developers onboarded to v4 during the year.
EDX Markets, the crypto exchange backed by Citadel Securities, has applied for a national trust bank charter, marking a new step in its push to serve institutional clients.
The exchange submitted its filing to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Wednesday, according to documents seen by CoinDesk. The move comes about three and a half years after the firm launched.
If approved, the charter would allow EDX to offer custody, asset management and principal trading services, while continuing to run its core order-matching platform. The filing outlines a structure where custody and settlement sit within a regulated trust entity, separate from trading operations.
EDX Markets targets traditional finance firms entering digital assets. Its backers include Fidelity Digital Assets and Charles Schwab Corp, alongside Citadel Securities. The platform went live in the summer of 2023 with four cryptocurrencies: bitcoin , ether (ETH), and bitcoin cash (BHC). It has since expanded to include 17 additional tokens.
“EDX Trust is a key step in bringing traditional market structure to digital assets,” CEO Tony Acuña-Rohter told CoinDesk. “By separating custody and settlement into a regulated trust, we’re building the kind of infrastructure banks and institutional investors expect as they scale into the space.”
EDX is not alone in seeking this type of regulatory footing. Several crypto firms have applied for and received trust bank charters in recent years, using them to offer custody and other services under U.S. oversight. These approvals have become a key pathway for firms looking to attract institutional capital.
Competition for those clients has intensified. Large asset managers and trading firms want platforms that mirror the safeguards and structure of traditional markets. In practice, that can mean segregated custody, clear settlement processes and regulated entities that reduce counterparty risk. For exchanges like EDX, securing a trust charter could help bridge that gap.
Bitcoin treasury holders have faced a renewed wave of scrutiny as market stress spread through the sector. Nakamoto (NAKA), a prominent crypto treasury company, disclosed March sales that locked in losses, a signal that broader capital discipline could intensify in the coming weeks. The disclosures come on the heels of a difficult year for digital-asset treasuries, marked by a collapse in net asset value premiums and a downbeat price environment that preceded a notable market downturn in October 2025.
In its latest disclosures, Nakamoto revealed a March sale of 284 BTC for roughly $20 million, implying a sale price near $70,000 per coin. The firm also reduced its stake in Metaplanet by divesting shares at a loss. End-2025 figures show Nakamoto’s BTC treasury at 5,342 coins, with a fair value of about $467.5 million and a quarterly fair-value loss of $166.1 million, according to the company’s 10-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The broader crypto treasury space has faced mounting headwinds. A period of deteriorating NAV premiums for digital asset treasuries persisted into the third quarter of 2025, and equity prices of related treasury vehicles declined even before the October 2025 market crash that underscored a protracted bear cycle and the ensuing downturn in crypto prices. These dynamics underscore a sector-wide struggle to manage reserves amid volatile asset prices and tightening capital conditions.
Key takeaways
- Nakamoto sold 284 BTC in March for about $20 million, a move that appears to have been executed around $70,000 per BTC and coincided with other treasury adjustments, including a loss-laden stake reduction in Metaplanet.
- The company’s year-end 2025 10-K shows 5,342 BTC valued at $467.5 million, accompanied by a $166.1 million Q4 loss on the fair value of its crypto holdings.
- The crypto treasury space experienced a notable drop in NAV premium strength during Q3 2025, a trend that predated the October market crash and helped set a challenging backdrop for treasury managers.
- MAR A, another bitcoin miner turned treasury holder, disclosed a March sale of 15,133 BTC—valued at more than $1 billion—to retire about $1 billion in convertible debt, signaling a tactical liquidity move rather than a wholesale shift away from treasury holdings.
- Industry observers warn of potential contagion risk if more treasuries respond to stress with further sales, especially amid macro pressures and regional conflicts that could weigh on BTC price action.
Nakamoto’s March dispositions and what they signify
According to Cointelegraph’s coverage of Nakamoto’s activities, the March sale of 284 BTC for roughly $20 million demonstrated a realized loss relative to prior valuation and raised questions about the persistence of losses across digital-asset treasuries. The firm also reduced its exposure to Metaplanet by offloading shares at a loss, a move that points to broader capital-allocation considerations rather than an outright pivot away from crypto reserves. The combination of these actions illustrates how treasuries are navigating a high-volatility environment where mark-to-market losses can quickly accumulate, even as some holdings remain substantially valuable on an on-paper basis.
End of year 2025 reporting reinforces the scale of Nakamoto’s holdings and the accompanying valuation pressures. The 10-K shows Nakamoto’s 5,342 BTC reserve valued at $467.5 million, with a $166.1 million loss recorded in the fourth quarter on the fair value of digital assets. That quarterly loss aligns with a period when the broader digital-asset sector faced multiple crosscurrents—ranging from wavering demand for treasuries to insurance and financing costs that increased as prices fell from their late-2025 peaks. For readers tracking treasury performance, the 10-K filing offers a concrete snapshot of how market moves translated into reported losses even when long-term holdings remained substantial.
Market context during this period was nuanced. The crypto treasury space had already seen a squeeze on premium valuations in Q3 2025, a trend that predated a broader sell-off and the October market downturn. Analysts argued that a weaker macro and continued volatility could pressure treasury portfolios further, possibly triggering more sales as treasuries attempt to rebalance risk and maintain liquidity during stressed periods. In this backdrop, Nakamoto’s March actions read as a data point in a broader recalibration across the sector rather than an isolated event.
MARA’s March BTC sale: a tactical adjustment rather than capitulation
In a parallel development, MARA—the Bitcoin mining company that also holds a substantial treasury position—disclosed a March sale of 15,133 BTC valued at more than $1 billion. The purpose was to repurchase and retire approximately $1 billion in convertible debt, a move the firm framed as a strategic, short-term liquidity measure rather than a fundamental shift in its treasury strategy. Robert Samuels, MARA’s vice president for investor relations, emphasized that the sale did not indicate a plan to liquidate the majority of its reserves and that the company may buy or sell BTC from time to time based on market conditions and capital-allocation priorities.
The March sale underscores a recurring theme among large treasury holders: the balancing act between deleveraging, maintaining liquidity, and preserving upside exposure to Bitcoin’s longer-term fundamentals. While MARA’s disclosure signals a tactical debt-management objective, it also highlights how treasury activity can be driven by corporate financing needs as much as by crypto-market cycles. For investors and watchers, such moves can be a useful barometer of corporate risk tolerances and the appetite for risk transfer during periods of volatility.
What the ongoing dynamics mean for investors and builders
From an investor perspective, the Nakamoto and MARA disclosures illustrate that even sizable treasury positions are not immune to price volatility and reallocation pressures. The March activity—especially Nakamoto’s significant BTC disposition and Metaplanet stake reduction—adds to a broader narrative about treasury strategy in a regime of rising macro and geopolitical uncertainty. The end-2025 valuations and the quarterly losses documented in the 10-K filings serve as a reminder that mark-to-market moves can erode reported profitability even when blockchain-related assets retain strategic value for the long term.
For traders and builders in the ecosystem, the implications extend beyond single-company moves. The observed NAV premium collapse in Q3 2025 suggested a broader mispricing in crypto-treasury vehicles, a dynamic that can influence funding conditions for new projects, credit lines for miners, and the willingness of traditional finance partners to engage with digital-asset treasuries. With the October 2025 price action illustrating a sharper turn in risk sentiment, observers will be watching whether the sector stabilizes or continues to reprice risk as companies navigate debt maturities, liquidity needs, and potential further sales from treasuries under strain.
In the near term, market watchers should stay alert to several indicators. First, any additional treasury actions from major holders could signal shifting risk tolerance or liquidity pressures. Second, updates to NAV premium trends and the health of associated debt instruments will help gauge the sector’s resilience. Finally, BTC price dynamics—especially around macro- and regional risks—will influence whether treasury holders can avoid a self-reinforcing cycle of losses and forced sales.
As the sector processes these developments, readers should monitor forthcoming earnings and regulatory disclosures for more clarity on how treasuries are being managed in a volatile environment. The March disclosures from Nakamoto and MARA, alongside the 10-K filings, offer concrete data points for assessing whether the current period marks a turning point or a short-lived adjustment in a longer-cycle evolution of crypto treasuries.
Readers can refer to the original reporting for deeper detail on the specific transactions: Nakamoto’s March BTC disposition and Metaplanet stake sale were covered in Cointelegraph’s coverage of the event, while the formal debt-reduction move by MARA was outlined in their SEC filings. The broader market context—DAT market pressures, NAV premium movements, and the October 2025 price shock—has been discussed across multiple industry analyses and related Cointelegraph coverage.
The story remains fluid: as treasuries recalibrate their portfolios, investors should watch how new pricing, debt-financing needs, and macro conditions shape the next round of treasury activity and potential contagion dynamics within the sector.
Paradigm is building a pro‑grade prediction market terminal, eyeing an internal MM unit and S&P‑style index product as Kalshi’s valuation jumps to $22B on surging volumes.
Summary
- Paradigm is developing a professional-grade prediction market terminal targeting institutional traders and market makers.
- The firm is also exploring an internal market-making unit and an index product bundling multiple event markets, similar to the S&P 500.
- Paradigm, already a major backer of Kalshi, led a $1 billion round valuing the platform at $11 billion.
Paradigm is building a dedicated prediction market trading terminal aimed squarely at professional traders and market makers, in one of the clearest signs yet that real‑money event markets are being treated as an emerging asset class rather than a curiosity. The project, led by Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji and initiated in late 2025, is designed to give sophisticated users Bloomberg‑style tools to trade, analyze and route liquidity across a growing ecosystem of on‑chain and regulated prediction platforms, according to a recent report in Fortune.
The San Francisco‑based crypto investment firm is simultaneously weighing the launch of an internal prediction market‑making business, while working with researchers on a “prediction market index” that would package multiple event contracts into a single, tradable structure, explicitly modeled on benchmarks such as the S&P 500. Such an index could mirror earlier experiments with volatility and DeFi indices, and follows a broader wave of venture capital interest in the sector; one recent Forbes analysis noted that prediction market startups attracted $3.7 billion in new capital and “minted young billionaires at Polymarket and Kalshi” as trading volumes exploded.
Paradigm has already begun aggregating prediction market data into a public panel, a necessary precondition for any institutional‑grade terminal product. The firm is also one of the most aggressive financiers of regulated prediction venue Kalshi: in December 2025, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, led by Paradigm and joined by Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, ARK Invest and others, doubling its value in under two months, as first reported by TechCrunch and corroborated by company statements.
That bet has continued to pay off. A subsequent funding round reported in March 2026 lifted Kalshi’s valuation again, to $22 billion, after a further $1 billion raise, according to coverage compiled by Yahoo Finance and The Wall Street Journal. As prediction markets move from sub‑$100 million monthly volumes in early 2024 to more than $13 billion by the end of 2025, according to research cited by Forbes, the emergence of a dedicated Paradigm‑backed terminal, internal liquidity provision and index products suggests the asset class is being refashioned into financial infrastructure, rather than treated as a sideshow to spot crypto.
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