Bitcoin has broken above $85,000 as renewed U.S. buying and forced short covering have put Nansen’s next targets at $87,000 and $90,000, even as large crypto traders remain net short.

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s price has turned bullish faster than positioning among crypto-native traders, creating room for underexposed market participants to chase the rally.

The move above $84,000 appears to have drawn support from renewed exchange-traded fund demand and a large short squeeze, according to Sondergaard. However, Hyperliquid’s largest Bitcoin traders were still net short, suggesting that some major market participants had not fully accepted the recovery.

Onchain exchange flows offered another sign of caution. Nansen recorded more Bitcoin moving onto exchanges than leaving them over the past two days, a pattern that can raise the amount of BTC available for sale.

“Bitcoin’s move above $84,000 looks less like a clean macro-driven accumulation event and more like a combination of renewed ETF demand and a large short squeeze,” Sondergaard said. “The important distinction is that price has turned bullish faster than positioning has.”

Under-positioned traders may have to buy Bitcoin if the advance continues, adding fuel to the rally. Sondergaard warned, however, that the move would remain exposed to a reversal if ETF inflows weaken or U.S. Treasury yields climb again.

Bitcoin spot demand must confirm the $85K breakout

Spot-market signals have strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s advance, giving the latest rally more support than a move driven mainly by perpetual futures.

ViaBTC Chief Analyst Jeff Ko said the Coinbase premium returned to positive territory on Friday, indicating that Bitcoin traded at a higher price on the U.S. exchange than on offshore platforms. Analysts often use the premium to assess buying interest from American investors and institutions.

At the same time, USDT/USD rose from 0.9991 to 0.9998 over the weekend. Ko viewed the move toward the stablecoin’s dollar peg as another sign of genuine demand rather than a rally sustained only by borrowed money.

Friday’s rebound followed two major setbacks earlier in the week. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, while the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin initially fell into the mid-$75,000 range before recovering.

As previously covered by crypto.news, all 12 voting Federal Open Market Committee members supported the rate increase, while 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more hike during 2026. Bitcoin briefly approached $76,000 after the decision as Treasury yields and the dollar remained firm.

The market had also faced heavy ETF withdrawals. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost about $746.3 million across Sep. 15 and Sep. 16 before attracting $159.5 million on Sep. 17 and roughly $433 million on Sep. 18. Friday’s inflows included $310.7 million for Fidelity’s FBTC and $108.4 million for BlackRock’s IBIT.

Across the full five-session period, the funds recorded about $6.2 million in net inflows, showing that late-week demand nearly erased the earlier withdrawals. Ko said sustained ETF demand now matters more than the excitement created by the initial breakout.

Bitcoin faces its next test at $87K

After Bitcoin cleared and held $85,000, Sondergaard identified $87,000 as the next level to monitor. A break above that area would bring the psychological $90,000 level into view, followed by possible resistance around $92,000.

“The next level to look for would be $87k, given $85k is broken and held, then $90k would be psychological and again some levels to look for around $92k,” Sondergaard said.

Any move through the three levels will depend on continued spot buying and the absence of another sharp macro shock, according to the analyst. Without spot and ETF follow-through, Sondergaard said the advance could become another move led mainly by perpetual futures, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to sell-offs and geopolitical events.

Earlier technical conditions had already started turning in favor of buyers. During Friday’s rally, Bitcoin rebounded toward $81,300 after reclaiming its True Market Mean near $76,660. More than $250 million in short positions were liquidated over 24 hours as BTC crossed $78,000 and $80,000.

The 4-hour Supertrend flipped bullish near $78,677, while the daily Relative Strength Index rose to 64.48. Bitcoin also moved above the middle line of its daily Bollinger Bands before testing the upper band, according to the Sep. 19 technical report.

Ko had identified $80,000 as the main pivot before Bitcoin’s latest leg higher, with $82,000 acting as the resistance level that buyers needed to clear. Price has since moved beyond both zones, turning them into areas traders may watch during a pullback.

Holding above the former resistance areas without a steep rise in leverage would offer a stronger structure than a fast move powered by futures positions, according to Ko. Sondergaard’s exchange-flow data still leaves a risk that BTC deposited on trading platforms could return to the market if momentum weakens.

Treasury yields and oil remain risks for Bitcoin

The macro setting remains difficult despite Bitcoin’s recovery. Ko pointed to a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, a firm dollar and oil prices above $100, although crude had eased from the previous week’s spike.

Higher bond yields can raise the return available from traditional fixed-income assets, while a stronger dollar can place pressure on assets priced in the U.S. currency. Expensive oil may also keep inflation concerns active as Federal Reserve officials consider whether another rate increase is needed.

The Fed’s September hike followed a sharp rise in market expectations after attacks on Saudi infrastructure pushed oil about 11% higher over five days. A preview of the Fed decision noted that the institutional structure of the crypto market now differs from earlier tightening cycles because U.S. spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin holdings have increased conventional market exposure.

Bitcoin absorbed the rate increase and the failed CLARITY vote before rallying on Friday, which Ko cited as evidence of resilience. Still, he expects rates, oil and Fed communication to drive trading during a relatively light week for major U.S. economic releases.

Flash U.S. purchasing managers’ indexes are scheduled for Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and new-home sales on Thursday. Several Fed officials are also due to speak, giving investors further clues about whether policymakers support a second increase during 2026.

Friday’s quarter-end options expiry could add short-term volatility as traders settle contracts or adjust hedges. Ko said ETF flows remain the more important signal because persistent fund demand would show that U.S. investors are supporting the rally beyond the derivatives market.

ETH/BTC must rise before altcoin demand improves

Outside Bitcoin, Nansen has detected selective demand for higher-risk areas such as lending, yield and real-world asset tokens. Sondergaard described the activity as a tactical risk-on rebound rather than the start of a confirmed accumulation cycle across altcoins.

Ko said Ether’s performance against Bitcoin carries more value than its dollar price when judging whether demand is spreading through the market. The ETH/BTC ratio has remained in the low 0.03 range, limiting Ether’s relative appeal while Bitcoin continues to lead.

A convincing rise in ETH/BTC, combined with sustained positive Ether ETF flows, would indicate that investors are becoming more willing to take risk beyond Bitcoin, according to Ko. Until both signals appear, Ether’s dollar gains may largely follow Bitcoin rather than show independent strength.

Bitcoin rallied sharply on Monday, pushing above $86,000 for the first time since late January as broader risk sentiment improved and oil prices continued to slide. The move came after a strong Sunday close near $81,120 and was reinforced by reports pointing to renewed momentum in efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.

Alongside the price strength, traders focused on positioning—particularly the scale of short liquidations—while analysts debated whether the breakout signals a sustained trend or a short-lived burst that could reverse if key technical levels fail to hold.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin climbed nearly 6% on Monday and briefly topped $86,000, reaching $86,332 on Bitstamp, according to TradingView data.
• Crypto short liquidations totaled almost $800 million over 24 hours, with CoinGlass cited as the data source.
• US stocks opened higher as WTI crude fell below $92 per barrel, with the report linking the move to expectations of calmer geopolitical risk.
• Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha pointed to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, rising open interest, and buyer support as prerequisites for follow-through.
• Rekt Capital argued BTC/USD has ended a longer pattern of lower highs since October 2025, setting a new projected trading range.

Oil drops and equities rise as geopolitical risk cools

Bitcoin’s upside accelerated after the Wall Street open, with TradingView data showing a high of $86,332 on Bitstamp—up about 5.7% at the time of writing. The sudden strength followed a Sunday weekly close at $81,120, the highest level since the start of May, suggesting sellers had less room to push the market lower.

Crude oil weakness provided an important macro backdrop. The report notes that WTI fell as low as $91.59 per barrel on Monday. It attributed part of that drop to signals involving diplomatic efforts around the US-Iran conflict, including statements from Qatar’s Foreign Ministry and remarks from US President Donald Trump.

In addition, JPMorgan analysts were cited—via coverage from CNBC and others—saying Middle East oil flows remain “surprisingly strong” despite disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Separately, The New York Times reported that the US planned to extend its trade deal with China by six months ahead of Xi Jinping’s visit scheduled for Sept. 23–25.

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 1% and 1.6%, respectively, reinforcing the idea that calmer oil and improved equity sentiment helped support speculative demand across markets.

Short liquidations surge as traders talk “bull market” again

BTC’s jump quickly attracted bullish interpretation from analysts and traders, particularly because the rally appeared to force shorts to unwind. According to the report, crypto short liquidations approached nearly $800 million over a 24-hour period, referencing CoinGlass.

The Kobeissi Letter—cited in the article—described the market as being “in a new bull market,” pointing to roughly 50% gains for BTC/USD over two months. While such framing is always subjective, the underlying liquidation data offers a concrete reason why momentum can build quickly when leverage is crowded.

Still, analysts stressed that whether liquidations translate into a durable trend depends on what happens next—especially whether spot demand can overpower any renewed selling pressure after a breakout attempt.

Bitfinex Alpha: watch net taker buying, open interest, and ETF inflows

Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of Bitfinex, highlighted three factors it said are important for further upside: visible buyer support, expansion in coin-denominated open interest, and fresh capital entering US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

In a Monday blog post referenced by the report, Bitfinex Alpha noted that a breakout is more likely to be “validated” if trading behavior shifts toward net taker buying rather than profit-taking that previously capped the advance around Sept. 18 and Sept. 19.

“For a breakout to be validated, we would want to see net taker buying rather than the profit-taking that capped the advances on 18 and 19 September,” Bitfinex Alpha said, adding that coin-denominated open interest should expand to indicate new positioning rather than a move driven mainly by short covering.

The same analysis also provided an explicit technical risk level: it said a daily close beneath $77,100 would invalidate the structure to the downside, exposing what it described as the True Market Mean at $76,677. For traders, that matters because strong breakouts often fail when they retrace below the most recent “line in the sand,” especially after leverage-driven liquidations.

Rekt Capital marks the end of a downtrend pattern and sets a range target

Another market read came from trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who the report says confirmed that BTC/USD has broken out of a cycle of lower highs that had been in place since October 2025. In his related X commentary, he argued this move suggests the prior macro downtrend has weakened.

Rekt Capital further outlined a new potential trading zone between $86,681 and $93,659. He also referenced a broader range framework, suggesting that if Bitcoin confirms a breakout from the $60,000–$80,000 zone, the next milestone would be attempting to enter a higher “blue-blue” range that featured prominently toward the end of 2025.

Taken together, these perspectives show a common theme: multiple analysts view the current push as more than just a single-day spike, but they also stress that confirmation will depend on sustained demand and follow-through above key thresholds.

As Monday’s momentum filters into the next sessions, readers should watch whether Bitcoin can hold above the levels highlighted by Bitfinex Alpha—particularly around $77,100—while monitoring whether open interest grows alongside net buying, rather than fading back into another leveraged unwind.

Bitcoin began the week near its strongest levels in almost eight months, pushing to $85,248 on Monday—its highest point since Jan. 29. The move follows a weekly advance after BTC ended Sunday’s session at $81,120, its best weekly close since the week of May 4, according to TradingView data cited in the report.

Beyond the headline price action, traders are watching two closely related dynamics: whether Bitcoin can hold above a previously marked local high around $82,950, and how quickly market participants take profit as spot Bitcoin ETF-related investors near their estimated breakeven area near $86,000.

Key takeaways

• BTC reached $85,248 on Monday, extending gains to levels not seen since Jan. 29, after a strong weekly close on Sunday.
• Crypto liquidations jumped, with CoinGlass reporting cross-crypto liquidations above $600 million over 24 hours.
• ETF cost-basis pressure is rising: Glassnode estimates a spot ETF breakeven cost basis at $85,638.
• Macro attention is shifting toward oil and bond yields, with WTI trading below $94 as diplomacy chatter around US-Iran talks grows.
• Rates remain a swing factor: CME’s FedWatch tool points to about a 53% chance of a 0.25% hike in October, with roughly a 40% chance of another before year-end.

Breakout attempt meets “moment of truth” levels

Bitcoin’s push above $85,000 coincides with renewed attention to prior resistance. The report highlights a key reference point: the local high at $82,950 from May, which traders are now testing for whether it becomes a support level rather than a ceiling.

Earlier, trader and analyst Rekt Capital described BTC’s positioning below that level as a “moment of truth.” In his view, a bearish divergence on the daily RSI—where the indicator’s lower highs contrasted with higher price highs—suggested insufficient momentum to sustain an upside move, raising the risk of a sharper reversal. The report also notes that, with Bitcoin trading back around the $84,000 area, the daily RSI is nearing the “overbought” region around 70 at the time of writing.

At the same time, the move higher is not occurring in a vacuum: the report states that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $77,769. In the market narrative included here, that level has previously been treated as a prerequisite for continued upside.

For short-term traders, the practical implication is straightforward: any failure to hold gains above the reclaimed levels could quickly change the tape, especially given the volatility signals coming from liquidation data.

Liquidations surge as leverage unwinds

CoinGlass data referenced in the report indicates that short liquidations accelerated alongside the jump in BTC price. The cross-crypto liquidation total for the last 24 hours exceeded $600 million, reflecting how quickly leveraged positioning can unwind when price breaks upward through widely watched thresholds.

Liquidation spikes often matter because they can temporarily amplify rallies—pushing spot higher while forced sell orders clear leverage on the short side. However, they also make the move more fragile: once the most aggressive liquidations are absorbed, the market can become more sensitive to profit-taking and renewed macro pressure.

Spot ETF breakeven nears $86,000—and flows shift

The rally also intersects with spot ETF economics. The report cites Glassnode’s estimate that the cost basis relevant to US spot Bitcoin ETF investors sits at $85,638. With BTC pressing toward the mid-$85,000s and described as approaching the breakeven point near $86,000, the market may be nearing a zone where some investors feel less pressure to add exposure—or where incremental buying can slow if traders decide to lock in gains.

CoinShares-style “profit” framing isn’t the only factor, though. The report highlights that US ETF activity ended the week strong. Per data from Farside Investors, US ETFs recorded $435 million in net inflows on Friday—its largest daily total since Sept. 3. In addition, the day-to-day flow picture appeared to improve even as broader regulatory progress remained uneven.

Although the CLARITY Act reportedly failed to advance in the Senate last week, the report notes that the SEC and CFTC moved forward with crypto-related policy work on Thursday. That combination coincided with a reported $159 million in net crypto ETF inflows on the day.

One detail investors may want to watch is not just how much money came in, but where it went. The report says the largest Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), did not dominate inflows as it often does; instead, most investors shifted toward Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which accounted for $310 million of the total. CryptoQuant attributed the change to a redistribution of “flow leadership,” citing that IBIT’s dominance over FBTC that existed around Sept. 3 flipped by about Sept. 18.

Oil, yields, and Fed pricing influence risk appetite

While crypto-specific factors are in focus, the report ties the week’s macro backdrop to oil and rates—two variables that can affect liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite.

After oil spiked above $100 per barrel last week, WTI crude traded below $94 on Monday. The move is linked to hopes of renewed diplomacy in the Middle East. A spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, Majed Al-Ansari, told Bloomberg that efforts to restart US-Iran talks have been ongoing for “the past couple of weeks.” The report also references comments attributed to President Donald Trump, who said his options in the Iran conflict include “wiping Iran out,” “letting them rot economically,” or “making a deal,” and suggested he would likely be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly.

Lower oil prices feed into inflation expectations, and the report connects that with bond yield cooling. US 30-year yields, it states, fell to 5.301% on Monday from highs of 5.425% seen on Sept. 11—levels described as the highest since June 2004. The downward trend in borrowing costs is one reason equity markets could maintain gains, and it’s also one channel through which Bitcoin often benefits when liquidity conditions improve.

Still, the rate path isn’t settled. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool cited in the report, markets assign about a 53% probability to a 0.25% rate increase at the Fed’s October meeting, with near 40% odds of a third quarter-point hike later in the year.

A scheduled appearance by Thomas Barkin, the Richmond Fed president, is flagged as a potential near-term catalyst. The report says he is set to speak to the CFA Society Baltimore, with the agenda including insights on the economic landscape and current monetary policy developments.

For the next phase, investors will likely focus less on whether Bitcoin can tag new highs and more on whether it can hold above the reclaimed levels while ETF breakeven approaches. If liquidation pressure fades without follow-through, traders may look for confirmation from both spot ETF flow direction and the next leg in bond yields.

Stablecoin issuer Circle is moving deeper into regulated crypto lending with a new Bitcoin-backed borrowing service designed for institutions. Through its Circle Mint platform, eligible customers can deposit Bitcoin, use Circle’s wrapped token cirBTC as collateral, and borrow USDC via supported onchain lending markets.

Circle says the rollout aligns with a broader infrastructure push around its Arc network, which is positioned as a layer-1 for stablecoin-based payments and financial services. The borrowing service—called Digital Asset-Backed Borrowing—adds a new way for Bitcoin holders to access USDC liquidity without handing custody of the underlying assets to the lending venues themselves.

Key takeaways

• Circle’s new service lets eligible Circle Mint customers use Bitcoin as collateral to borrow USDC on supported DeFi lending protocols.
• The borrowing workflow uses cirBTC as the collateral token, which Circle says is backed 1:1 by Bitcoin held in custody by Circle National Trust.
• Borrowing terms such as rates, collateral requirements, and liquidation thresholds are determined by the third-party lending market, not by Circle.
• Circle plans to start with Morpho and later add Aave and other protocols.
• New York clients are excluded from the offering.

How Circle’s Bitcoin-backed borrowing works

Circle’s announcement details a custody-aware structure aimed at institutional users. Under Digital Asset-Backed Borrowing, eligible Circle Mint customers can deposit Bitcoin and mint cirBTC, Circle’s wrapped Bitcoin token. That cirBTC is then supplied as collateral to supported third-party lending markets.

Circle states that borrowed USDC is credited directly into the customer’s Circle Mint balance. From there, the customer can use USDC as needed—while the collateral posting and liquidation mechanics are governed by the specific lending protocol used.

Importantly, Circle positions this as a model that keeps the customer’s collateral control in the foreground. The company says the collateral is supplied via a customer-controlled wallet to the third-party DeFi protocol rather than lent out directly by Circle. Circle also characterizes the arrangement as overcollateralized, meaning borrowers must post more value in collateral than the amount of USDC borrowed.

Circle also notes that parameters affecting the position—such as borrowing rates, required collateral, and liquidation thresholds—are set by the third-party lending market. That design shifts the day-to-day risk and mechanics to the underlying DeFi venue, while Circle focuses on eligibility, the wrapping process, and the institutional onramp.

Morpho first, with Aave and others planned

For the initial launch, Circle is supporting Morpho as the first lending protocol for cirBTC-collateralized borrowing. Circle indicated that it plans to expand support to Aave and additional lending markets over time.

Separately, Circle’s timing matters for users watching Arc’s ecosystem. The service rollout coincides with cirBTC going live on Arc. According to Circle, cirBTC was launched on Ethereum in June, and its network availability is now expanding.

Circle also confirmed that it intends to connect these institutional borrowing flows to the broader Arc environment—an approach that could reduce friction for participants that prefer to use USDC as a settlement and payments asset within a single chain ecosystem.

Why the structure matters for institutions

Circle’s model reflects a recurring institutional demand in crypto: access to borrowing and leverage-like liquidity strategies without disrupting existing custody arrangements. By using cirBTC—backed 1:1 by Bitcoin held in custody by Circle National Trust—Circle provides a path to onchain credit while keeping a clear chain of custody and token backing on the issuer side.

This stands in contrast to some earlier institutional designs aimed at preserving underlying Bitcoin custody without wrapping. In a previous approach described earlier in the market, Lombard partnered with Bitwise to develop a system for borrowing against BTC held in custody, with Morpho supplying lending infrastructure. That model, as described in coverage at the time, was designed to avoid converting the underlying Bitcoin into a separate wrapped asset—opting instead to keep the Bitcoin in custody without using wrapping or bridging.

Circle’s decision to introduce cirBTC instead indicates a different tradeoff: the wrapped token enables easier integration with existing lending markets that support ERC-asset collateral, while Circle can still point to a specific backing mechanism for cirBTC.

More broadly, the development fits a pattern of institutional-oriented lending platforms emphasizing “qualified custody” and controlled collateral rather than open-ended asset movement. Earlier, Anchorage Digital partnered with Kamino to enable institutions to borrow against staked Solana held at Anchorage Digital Bank, avoiding a direct requirement to move collateral out of qualified custody. And BitGo expanded its institutional lending efforts with a portfolio-based framework, enabling multiple assets to serve as collateral depending on the structure of the financing.

In that context, Circle’s offering is best understood as an additional layer to the institutional lending stack—one that combines an issuer-backed collateral token, an institutional balance interface through Circle Mint, and DeFi lending mechanics executed on third-party protocols.

Arc mainnet timing and the USDC-centered roadmap

The borrowing service arrives just days after Circle rolled out the Arc mainnet, a layer-1 network designed around stablecoin payments and financial market use cases. Circle’s Arc positioning includes USDC as the native gas token, and support for tokenized assets such as BlackRock’s BUIDL and Circle’s USYC, according to earlier coverage.

That sequencing matters because it suggests Circle is aligning two different parts of its business: the transport layer (Arc) and the financial layer (stablecoin issuance, tokenization, and now institutional borrowing). For investors and builders, it also raises practical questions about where collateral and liquidity will concentrate—whether users will continue to rely primarily on Ethereum for DeFi borrowing, or whether Arc’s stablecoin-native design will draw activity from the start.

At the same time, the biggest determinants of user experience and risk remain anchored in the third-party lending markets that set borrowing rates and liquidation parameters. That means the real impact for end users may vary quickly depending on how Morpho (and later Aave and others) structure collateral factors and liquidation thresholds for cirBTC.

What to watch next

Circle’s next milestones—adding Aave and expanding the lending venue lineup, as well as observing how cirBTC usage develops across Arc versus Ethereum—will reveal whether this is merely an incremental product launch or a step toward a more standardized, issuer-coordinated institutional borrowing workflow. For now, institutional participants should pay close attention to protocol-specific borrowing terms, liquidation behavior, and eligibility constraints, including the exclusion of New York clients.

It’s been a busy weekend for one black hat who stole hundreds of millions of tokens from Fetch.ai, NuNet and SingularityNET, netting around $2.25 million of realized profits.

According to a report from Bitquery, however, the nominal value of the tokens minted was several times higher at the time of the theft. Indeed, blockchain security auditor Peckshield, which flagged the third incident, put the attacker’s unrealized profits at almost $17 million.

Read more: Osmosis took 74 days to discover 40-BTC Nomic exploit

Two of the three projects, all of which are part of the “Artificial Superintelligence Alliance” ecosystem, were hit almost simultaneously.

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The hacker first drained 8.7 million FET tokens from Fetch.ai’s bridge and minted 400 million of NuNet’s NTX token.

The SingularityNET bridge was exploited hours later, with 900 million of its own AGIX token, and 500 million each of World Mobile Chain’s WMTx and Cogito’s CGV minted out of thin air.

The sale of Fetch.ai’s FET tokens for 523 ETH (approximately $1.2 million) generated the lion’s share of the attacker’s gains, with subsequent sales returning just 183 ETH ($420,000) between the four remaining tokens.

The half billion CGV tokens returned just $30 due to extremely thin liquidity.

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With considerable portions of their supply made up of freshly minted counterfeit tokens, the prices of minted assets have collapsed.

Conversely, the sale of the (genuine) FET tokens resulted in a 5% drop.

Bitquery also highlighted a preliminary sweep of ETH and BNB from 16 wallets, four of which it had previously labelled as “SingularityNET or NuNet staff wallets,” indicating widespread penetration of the interconnected companies’ infrastructure.

In addition, $289,575 in USDC was later drained from a payroll contract.

The report warns that the majority of the signing keys have not been changed.

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