Crypto World
Russia Plans Return to US Dollar Settlement as Strategic Cooperation Talks Emerge
TLDR:
- Russia and US combined oil production could reach 22.6 million barrels daily, reshaping global markets
- Moscow controls 44% of enriched uranium and 43% of palladium, critical for US industrial supply chains
- Russia-China trade hit $245B in 2024, spurring Moscow to diversify away from yuan-heavy dependence
- Russian reserves climbed to record $833B with over $400B in gold, providing negotiation leverage
Russia is reportedly planning to shift back toward US dollar settlement systems while exploring cooperation with the United States across multiple strategic sectors.
The discussions encompass fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil drilling, and critical raw materials. This development marks a potential reversal of Moscow’s decade-long effort to reduce dollar exposure.
The move could reshape global commodity markets and currency dynamics while altering geopolitical alliances between major powers.
Energy Cooperation Could Reshape Global Markets
According to analyst Bull Theory, shared on social media platform X, the cooperation framework would combine significant production capacity from both nations.
The United States currently produces 13.5 million barrels per day of oil, representing the highest output in American history.
Russia maintains production at 9.1 million barrels daily despite ongoing international sanctions. Combined influence over global oil supply would immediately shift pricing power and export leverage across international markets.
Natural gas represents another critical component of the potential partnership. Russia controls some of the world’s largest gas reserves, though many liquefied natural gas and pipeline projects remained frozen after the implementation.
Reopening investment channels and joint development initiatives would reintroduce substantial supply into global markets. This shift would directly affect European energy pricing and long-term gas market dynamics.
The timing carries particular weight given the current global energy transitions. Western nations have sought alternative suppliers since 2022, creating market volatility and price fluctuations.
Russian re-entry into Western-aligned energy frameworks could stabilize certain markets while disrupting others. Energy analysts note that infrastructure investments would require years to fully materialize.
Corporate participation represents a significant financial dimension. Western companies absorbed approximately $110 billion in losses when exiting Russian operations.
Re-entry opportunities in energy fields, gas infrastructure, mining projects, and Arctic drilling zones could enable American firms to resume resource extraction activities. This corporate angle extends beyond immediate profits to long-term strategic positioning.
Critical Minerals and Currency Realignment Take Center Stage
Russia controls substantial portions of strategic resources essential to modern manufacturing. The nation holds 44 percent of enriched uranium, 43 percent of palladium, 40 percent of industrial diamonds, 25 percent of titanium, and 20 percent of vanadium globally.
These materials form core components in semiconductors, defense systems, electric vehicle production, nuclear energy, and aerospace manufacturing. Partnership in this sector addresses American supply chain vulnerabilities while reducing Chinese dependency.
Moscow spent recent years building alternatives to Western settlement systems and reducing dollar reserves. Russia-China bilateral trade reached $245 billion by 2024, creating structural dependence on yuan liquidity and Chinese imports.
However, this pivot concentrated financial risk in Beijing-oriented frameworks. Reopening dollar settlement channels would diversify Russia’s financial positioning, balancing Eastern and Western exposure while re-anchoring portions of global trade.
Russia’s financial reserves recently climbed to a record $833 billion, with gold holdings exceeding $400 billion. This reserve strength provides Moscow with negotiating leverage for structuring long-term resource agreements.
The financial stability enables Russia to approach discussions from a position beyond immediate economic necessity.
The broader framework encompasses energy cooperation affecting global supply, mineral partnerships reshaping industrial resource access, corporate re-entry unlocking infrastructure projects, and currency realignment pulling Russia partially back into dollar systems.
Geopolitical leverage simultaneously shifts between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. If finalized, observers suggest this could represent one of the largest structural resets in global economic alignment since Cold War conclusion.
Crypto World
Aptos-Incubated Decibel Launch Protocol-Native Stablecoin Pre-Mainnet
Decibel Foundation is moving to embed an on-chain stablecoin into its Aptos-native derivatives ecosystem. The protocol-native token, USDCBL, issued by Bridge, is set to back on-chain perpetual futures trading as Decibel gears up for its February mainnet launch. The dollar-denominated asset is designed to internalize reserve economics, reducing dependence on third-party stablecoin issuers and giving the protocol more control over collateral dynamics. Decibel, incubated by Aptos Labs, plans to debut in February with a fully on-chain perpetual futures venue that relies on a single cross-margin account. The platform’s December testnet reportedly attracted more than 650,000 unique accounts and exceeded 1 million daily trades, figures that have yet to be independently verified.
Key takeaways
- Decibel will launch a protocol-native stablecoin, USDCBL, issued via Bridge’s Open Issuance platform, ahead of its Aptos-based perpetual futures exchange mainnet.
- USDCBL reserves will be backed by a mix of cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries, with yield retained within the protocol to support on-chain economics.
- Onboarding flow converts deposits of USDC into USDCBL, enabling on-chain collateral for perpetual futures and reducing reliance on external stablecoin issuers.
- The project emphasizes that USDCBL is infrastructure for the exchange rather than a standalone retail token, signaling a broader push toward ecosystem-native stablecoins.
- The announcement situates Decibel within a wider trend toward native stablecoins across crypto and traditional finance, with examples like Hyperliquid’s USDH and institutional tokens from JPMorgan and PayPal.
- Bridge’s Open Issuance ties Decibel to a broader stablecoin issuance framework, underscored by Bridge’s acquisition by Stripe in late 2025.
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The emergence of ecosystem-native dollar tokens across crypto platforms and traditional finance mirrors a broader move toward internalized collateral and on-chain settlement. The trend includes initiatives such as Hyperliquid’s native stablecoin USDH, JPMorgan’s tokenized deposits with JPM Coin, and PayPal’s PYUSD, all highlighting a shift toward dollars inside networks rather than relying solely on external issuers. The regulatory environment is also evolving, with proposals for stablecoin licensing and oversight under consideration in the United States.
Why it matters
The Decibel initiative marks a meaningful shift in how on-chain derivatives ecosystems anchor liquidity and risk management. By issuing USDCBL through Bridge’s Open Issuance platform, the project creates a fully collateralized stablecoin designed to live entirely within the protocol’s rails. The approach aims to reduce counterparty risk and minimize dependence on third-party stablecoin issuers, potentially lowering external liquidity constraints for the exchange’s perpetual futures venue.
From a tech perspective, a cross-margin architecture on a fully on-chain perpetuals venue can streamline settlement and collateral management. The onboarding flow—deposit USDC and convert to USDCBL— ties user funds to a native collateral pool that is governed by on-chain rules and reserves that are auditable in real time. The reserve model anchors value in a mix of cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries, with yield returned to the protocol rather than shared with external issuers or custodians. That design could improve capital efficiency and enable more aggressive reinvestment into ecosystem development and product enhancements, provided risk controls remain robust.
Market observers note that the broader push toward ecosystem-native stablecoins is not limited to crypto-native platforms. In parallel, traditional financial players are deploying tokenized dollar instruments within their networks to support real-time settlements and liquidity optimization. The PayPal PYUSD program and JPM Coin’s deployment for institutional settlement illustrate how “inside-network” dollars can reshape flow dynamics across both crypto and conventional finance. In the case of PayPal, for example, a 2025 rewards program tied to PYUSD holdings further integrates the stablecoin into consumer and merchant ecosystems, signaling how stablecoins can extend beyond trading into everyday payments and incentives.
Hyperliquid’s USDH example underscores the potential of native stablecoins to serve as platform-wide collateral. USDH is minted on the platform’s HyperEVM layer and is designed to act as collateral across the exchange, aiming to reduce reliance on off-platform issuers. This demonstrates a broader appetite among developers to align stablecoins with the specific risk profiles and liquidity needs of their ecosystems, rather than “one-size-fits-all” stablecoins that depend on external issuers.
As the ecosystem experiments with native stablecoins, the role of issuance infrastructure becomes another critical variable. Bridge’s Open Issuance framework enables projects to create regulated, fully collateralized stablecoins with integrated on- and off-ramps, linking on-chain finance more tightly to real-world assets. Bridge’s acquisition by Stripe in late 2025 highlights how stablecoin tooling is increasingly intertwined with mainstream fintech infrastructure, potentially accelerating adoption and interoperability across networks.
In short, Decibel’s USDCBL blueprint reflects a broader thesis: native stablecoins embedded within a platform’s governance and risk framework can improve liquidity, reduce external dependencies, and enable more sustainable funding for ecosystem development. Whether such models gain traction will depend on risk controls, regulatory clarity, and the ability of on-chain venues to demonstrate durable, auditable reserve management while delivering reliable user experiences.
What to watch next
- February mainnet launch of the Aptos-based perpetual futures exchange and the onboarding flow for USDCBL.
- Details on reserve composition, collateralization ratios, and on-chain governance updates tied to USDCBL and Bridge’s issuance framework.
- Regulatory developments around stablecoin licensing and compliant issuance pathways, including mentions of licensing proposals in the U.S. context.
- User adoption metrics from the testnet and early mainnet phases, including net deposits into USDCBL and cross-margin activity.
Sources & verification
- Decibel Foundation’s announcement about USDCBL and its use as collateral for on-chain perpetual futures.
- Decibel’s X post detailing reserve backing and income retention within the protocol.
- Bridge’s Open Issuance platform and its role in issuing regulated, fully collateralized stablecoins; Bridge’s 2025 Stripe acquisition.
- December testnet performance metrics (650,000+ unique accounts; 1,000,000+ daily trades).
- Comparative examples of ecosystem-native stablecoins, including Hyperliquid’s USDH, JPM Coin, and PayPal’s PYUSD.
Decibel’s on-chain stablecoin aims to underpin Aptos perpetuals
The Decibel Foundation’s plan centers on USDCBL, a protocol-native stablecoin issued by Bridge, designed to operate as collateral for on-chain perpetual futures on Decibel’s upcoming Aptos-based exchange. Depositors will convert USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) into USDCBL (CRYPTO: USDCBL) as part of the onboarding flow, with USDCBL issued via Bridge’s Open Issuance platform. The intention is to create a fully collateralized, internal reserve mechanism that reduces exposure to external stablecoin issuers while maintaining familiar price stability for traders. Bridge, which had been acquired by Stripe in late 2025, serves as the issuance backbone for USDCBL, aiming to deliver a seamless on-ramp and off-ramp experience for users across the ecosystem.
At launch, the exchange will feature a single cross-margin account for on-chain perpetual futures, simplifying risk management for users who hold USDCBL as collateral. The December testnet reportedly attracted hundreds of thousands of users and a high level of trading activity, underscoring pent-up demand for on-chain derivatives experiences on Aptos. However, as with many new testnet figures, independent verification remains pending, so market participants will be watching the February mainnet rollout closely to assess real-world engagement and liquidity.
USDCBL reserves are described as a mix of cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries, with yield generated by those assets retained within the protocol. This approach could reduce the need to rely on trading fees or token incentives as primary revenue streams, freeing capital to be reinvested into ecosystem development and product enhancements. The foundation emphasized that USDCBL is not merely another stablecoin; rather, it is “core exchange infrastructure” intended to support the mechanics of a fully on-chain venue rather than serve as a broad retail token. This framing reflects a design choice that prioritizes platform integrity and reliability over standalone consumer use cases.
In the broader context, Decibel’s move sits alongside a wave of native-stablecoin experiments across both crypto-native projects and traditional financial institutions. Hyperliquid’s USDH, minted on the platform’s HyperEVM, illustrates how a platform-specific token can function across an exchange’s liquidity and collateral framework. The inclusion of widely discussed developments like JPM Coin (institutional tokenization for settlement) and PYUSD (PayPal’s dollar-backed token integrated into its payments network) further demonstrates the industry’s interest in dollars entrenched within networks rather than external issuers alone. Taken together, these examples depict a landscape where stablecoins are increasingly tailored to the governance and risk profiles of individual ecosystems, rather than deployed as generic, market-wide instruments.
Crypto World
Vitalik Proposes ‘Decentralized Governance’ Model for Russia’s Future
The Ethereum co-founder condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while saying the country could benefit from crypto principles like decentralization.
Vitalik Buterin shared in a long post on X on Feb. 12, originally written in Russian, his views on Russia’s war against Ukraine and what Russia’s future could look like under a “decentralized governance” model.
In the first half of the post, published ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the Ethereum co-founder called the war “criminal aggression,” not a “complicated situation” where both sides are equally at fault. He then argued that real, lasting security for Ukraine and Europe will not come from a temporary ceasefire alone, but from change inside Russia itself.
In his view, the strongest guarantee of peace would be for Russia to transform into a different kind of system. To do that, he said, the country would need deeper structural reform based on decentralized governance.
Buterin’s post underscores a broader trend of applying crypto ideas, especially decentralization and transparency, to geopolitics. As crypto adoption grows around the world, its core principles are increasingly being discussed as models for both financial and political systems.
“People often speak about ‘decentralized governance’ and ‘radical democracy’ in very abstract and idealistic terms, but far too rarely do they talk about what concrete problem it can actually solve,” Buterin wrote, via translation.
He listed ideas such as quadratic voting, zero-knowledge (ZK) systems and online discussion platforms like pol.is. These tools, he said, can help large groups find common ground instead of leaving decisions to a small, centralized elite.
“In the crypto industry, some people like to say that we need to move from ‘don’t be evil’ to ‘can’t be evil’. In human society, achieving this goal 100% is completely unrealistic, but achieving 25%? That would already be a very good result,” Buterin wrote in Russian.
He added that this point matters for two reasons: First, when building any new system, people must be clear about the real goal. Second, both ordinary Russians and members of the political elite who would need to “cooperate in order for there to be any success” must understand why these ideas are worth supporting.
In the final part of his essay, Buterin focused on decentralized governance as a process, highlighting digital tools and AI-driven discussion platforms. He argued that the Russian opposition needs new ideas and leaders, and that the best way to find them is to involve more people directly.
Instead of relying on a small group, he suggested using online systems like pol.is, where large numbers of citizens can post views and vote on proposals.
“This makes it possible to find societal compromises — or even consensus — directly, without intermediaries (such as elected representatives), so that officials are left only with the task of turning that compromise/consensus into an official document or law,” Buterin wrote.
He emphasized that “this is all long-term,” and that the Russian people need to think deeply about what happens after Putin. “Having a concrete roadmap — a plan that can convince a broad coalition, both ordinary people and politicians, both inside Russia and in other countries — is an important first step,” he concluded.
Crypto World
Hyperliquid-Based Ventuals’ Trading Volume Surges 100% in 17 Days
Cumulative trading volume on the tokenized private equity platform reached $200 million about four months after the protocol’s launch.
Ventuals, a protocol that lets users trade tokenized exposure to private and pre-IPO companies, has crossed $200 million in cumulative trading volume less than three months after launch, according to a Feb. 11 X post from the platform’s co-founder, Alvin Hsia.
The milestone was reached just 17 days after cumulative volume first hit $100 million, on Jan. 24, a level that took the platform 73 days to achieve, Hsia noted.

On-chain data from LorisTools, which tracks activity across Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 products, shows cumulative volume on Ventuals has climbed past $215 million by press time. The platform has recorded 5,342 unique traders and generated over $70,000 in fees since going live in October 2025.
Built on the Hyperliquid blockchain, Ventuals allows traders to take synthetic, leveraged positions tied to the valuations of private companies, including firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI.

The most actively traded product so far is MAG7 — a contract tracking the so-called “Magnificent Seven” U.S. tech companies, which includes Amazon, Apple and Microsoft — which has seen over $4 million in trading volume today, Feb. 12, the data shows.
Alongside the surge in activity, Ventuals’ liquid staking token vHYPE, which represents a claim on the underlying HYPE, Hyperliquid’s native token, rose about 20% to $30, according to CoinGecko data.

Crypto World
Bitcoin price could crash further, Standard Chartered slashes target
The Bitcoin price has already crashed by nearly 50% from its all-time high, and a top long-term bull believes there is more downside to come in the near term.
Summary
- Bitcoin price has slumped from the all-time high to $66,000.
- Standard Chartered warned that the coin may drop to $50k.
- Technical analysis suggests that the coin may fall before rebounding.
Bitcoin (BTC) retreated to $66,000 on Thursday, a few points above the year-to-date low of $60,000. This decline has persisted as its divergence from American stocks has widened, with leading indices such as the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 hovering near their record highs.
Bitcoin’s price may have further downside in the near term, according to Standard Chartered, which warned that the coin may crash to $50,000.
The bank then lowered its Bitcoin price target for the year to $100,000, down from its previous estimate of $150,000. It was the second major downgrade as the bank had previously set the target price to $300,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets, predicts there will be more capitulation in the coming months. At the same time, he pointed to the ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows, plunging futures open interest, and lack of a clear narrative.
“I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months. The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near [Kevin] Warsh taking over at the Fed,” Kendrick told The Block. “On the downside I think this will see BTC to $50,000 or just below, ETH to $1,400.”
SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed over $282 million in assets this month. They have lost close to $6 billion in the last four months, a sign that investors are capitulating, with some moving their cash to the booming stock market.
Meanwhile, the futures open interest has tumbled to $44 billion from last year’s high of $96 billion. Falling open interest is a sign that investors are reducing their exposure to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that the BTC price has declined over the past few months and is now hovering near its lowest point of the year. It has already dropped below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages. Also, the Average Directional Index has jumped to 30, a sign that the downtrend is strengthening.
Therefore, the most likely outlook is bearish, with the initial target being at $60,000. A drop below that level will signal further downside to $50,000, as Standard Chartered predicts.
Crypto World
BTC falls back to $65,000 as software sector slides 3%
Bitcoin fell back toward last week’s lows, giving up nearly all of its recent gains above $70,000 and resuming its slide alongside weakness in the broader tech sector, as the crypto now trades back around $65,000.
Bitcoin was down 2% over the past 24 hours, with losses in ether and solana roughly tracking.
The decline mirrored broad price action in the Nasdaq, which fell 2% on Wednesday and more particularly in the software sector, where the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) tumbled 3%. The IGV is now down 21% year to date as investors question the sector’s pricey multiples in a world where the coding abilities of artificial intelligence agents appear to be rising exponentially.
“Software stocks are struggling again today,” wrote macro strategist Jim Bianco. “IGV is essentially back to last week’s panic lows.”
“Don’t forget there’s another type of software, ‘programmable money,’ crypto,” Bianco added. “They are the same thing.”
Precious metals not immune
Cruising along with modest gains through most of the day, gold and silver suffered quick, steep plunges in the mid-afternoon. Late in the session, silver was lower by 10.3% to $75.08 per ounce and gold was down 3.1% to $4,938.
Crypto World
Binance October 10 Backlash Hijacks Consensus Hong Kong
Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng has defended the exchange against claims that it was responsible for the October 10, 2025, “10/10” crypto crash, which saw roughly $19 billion in liquidations.
Speaking at CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong conference on February 12, 2026, Teng argued the sell-off was driven by other factors besides any Binance-specific failures.
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Richard Teng Gives Binance’s Side of the Story on October 10 Crash
The Binance co-CEO cited macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks between the US and China. Specifically, he cited:
- Fresh US tariff threats, including potential 100% duties on Chinese imports, and
- China’s imposition of rare-earth export controls.
The combination, he said, flipped global risk sentiment, triggering mass liquidations across all exchanges, centralized and decentralized alike.
“The US equity market plunged $1.5 trillion in value that day,” Teng said. “The US equity market alone saw $150 billion of liquidation. The crypto market is much smaller. It was about $19 billion. And the liquidation on crypto happened across all the exchanges.”
The majority of liquidations (roughly 75%) occurred around 9:00 p.m. ET, coinciding with the release of macro news.
Teng acknowledged minor platform issues during the event, including a stablecoin depegging (USDe) and temporary slowness in asset transfers.
However, he stressed these were unrelated to the broader market collapse. He also emphasized that Binance supported affected users, including by compensating some of them.
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“…trading data showed no evidence of a mass withdrawal from the platform,” he added.
Last year, Binance reportedly facilitated $34 trillion in trading volume and served over 300 million users.
It is worth noting that the October 10 crash has been a persistent cause of Binance FUD over the past several months. The exchange has faced criticism from far and wide, with the heaviest attacks coming from rival exchange OKX and its CEO, Star Xu.
Traders Reject Teng’s Macro Shock Explanation Amid $19 Billion 10/10 Liquidation
Despite Teng’s detailed defense, traders on social media have responded swiftly and critically. On X (Twitter), users accused Binance of locking APIs and engineering conditions that forced liquidations, only to deflect responsibility with the “macro shock” explanation.
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“Blaming macro shocks is the new ‘it was a glitch.’ $19B liquidated and somehow nobody at Binance is responsible lol,” one user challenged.
Naysayers go further, with some users likening Teng’s claims to colloquial phrases in harsh criticism.
“‘It wasn’t us, it was the macro’ is the crypto exchange version of the dog ate my homework. $19B in liquidations and every platform just points at the guy next to them,” another said.
However, the majority of responses revolved around alleged fake API responses and questioned internal coordination at Binance. The general sentiment is that users feel the exchange is not fully transparent.
The backlash illustrates the ongoing tension between centralized exchanges and leveraged traders during high-volatility events.
While retail demand has cooled compared to previous years, Teng highlighted that institutional and corporate participation in crypto remains strong.
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“Institutions are still entering the sector,” he said. “Meaning the smart money is deploying.”
Teng also framed the 10/10 event as part of a broader cyclical pattern in crypto markets. He argued that despite short-term turbulence, the sector’s underlying development continues, with institutional capital driving long-term confidence.
Still, the exchange faces a twofold challenge:
- It must defend its role during unprecedented market stress
- Binance must also restore trust with a skeptical trading community.
While the $19 billion liquidation wiped out positions across the market, the debate over who or what should be held accountable continues to simmer online. This is expected, given the fragility of confidence in high-leverage crypto trading.
Crypto World
Bitcoin risk-reward has shifted after recent selloff
Bitcoin’s recent price decline has prompted market analysts to assess whether a price floor is forming, with one prominent on-chain researcher stating the risk-reward profile has shifted following the selloff.
Summary
- “Checkmate” Check suggests Bitcoin has entered “deep value” territory.
- Recent selloff capitulation losses resemble those seen at 2022 cycle lows, indicating a potential market bottom forming with a 60% probability.
- Bitcoin’s price may be forming a bottom, but further declines are possible as market sentiment shifts.
James “Checkmate” Check, a former lead researcher at Glassnode and author of Check On Chain, told What Bitcoin Did host Danny Knowles that Bitcoin entered “deep value” territory across multiple mean-reversion frameworks when it dropped into recent price zones, according to statements made on the podcast. Check noted that capitulation-style losses spiked to levels last seen at the 2022 cycle lows.
Check stated that if Bitcoin is not trending toward zero, the statistical setup appears increasingly asymmetric after the selloff. The analyst said the current environment represents a time for market participants to pay attention rather than lose focus.
The researcher said he was focused on market structure rather than identifying a single forced seller behind the price movement.
Check offered a probabilistic assessment, stating that the odds of a bottom forming have increased significantly. He said the probability that the market has already set a meaningful low stands at more than 50%, likely around 60%, according to his analysis. The analyst assigned low odds to Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high within the year without a major macroeconomic shift or significant market event.
Regarding exchange-traded funds, Check cited billions in outflows during the drawdown, but characterized the situation as positioning unwinds rather than structural failure. He noted that at an earlier peak, approximately 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, while ETF assets under management declined only in the mid-single digits. Check suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade adjustments.
The analyst criticized reliance on the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” Check said his approach prioritizes observing investor behavior over calendar-based predictions.
Even if the low has been established, Check said he expects the market to revisit it. He argued that bottoms typically form through multiple “capitulation wicks” followed by extended periods of reduced activity, where sustained uncertainty erodes confidence among late-cycle buyers. Check stated that formulating a bear case at current levels would be premature, framing the current zone as late-stage rather than early-stage in the move, while acknowledging prices could decline further.
The analyst described two failed all-time-high attempts in October followed by a sharp decline that likely resulted in significant losses for market participants. He referenced what he termed a “hodler’s wall” of invested wealth positioned above key levels, including a threshold he called the “bull’s last stand.” Check argued that once price broke below those levels, downside probability increased.
A key reference level cited by Check was the True Market Mean, described as a long-term center-of-gravity price that also overlapped with the ETF cost basis. He said that once that level broke, the psychological regime shifted to an acceptance phase where market participants began to believe a bear market had begun.
Check argued the market was subsequently pulled toward a prior high-volume consolidation zone where a significant portion of this cycle’s trading volume had occurred. He said the selloff likely involved leverage liquidations but framed that as secondary to a broader shift in market sentiment, where participants sell rallies during perceived downtrends.
The most significant bottoming signal emphasized by Check was the scale of realized losses during the recent decline. He said capitulation losses occurred at a very large daily rate, comparable to the 2022 bottom, with sellers concentrated among recent buyers from the late cycle and those who purchased during an earlier consolidation period. Check also noted that SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) printed around minus one standard deviation, a reading that has historically appeared in only two contexts: as an early warning signal and near bottoming phases.
Check reiterated that bottoms form through a process involving multiple capitulation events followed by extended periods of reduced speculative interest, rather than a single definitive price point.
Crypto World
Espresso Token Launches at $275 Million Valuation
Launchpad buyers are down 30% with a 2-year vesting period ahead of them.
Espresso, a decentralized rollup base layer, launched its native ESP token this morning at a valuation of roughly $275 million following its token airdrop and distribution.
The token debuted at $0.072 before jumping up to $0.083 shortly after its launch and has reported $115 million in trading volume over its first 7 hours across CoinGecko-tracked platforms.
The protocol is designed to support rollups and appchains with everything they need from a base layer to ensure high performance, including finality, data availability, and real-time interoperability.
Today’s ESP token launch enables the network to transition to proof-of-stake, and the protocol has distributed 10% of the token supply in an airdrop to more than one million eligible addresses.

There was also a Kaito Launchpad sale in July 2025, which sold 1% of the supply at a $400 million valuation, leaving launchpad investors with a 31% loss at current prices.
The ESP token is the latest in a line of ICOs and token sales that are opening underwater, with Infinex and Aztec being two other recent examples.
Crypto World
Coinbase misses Q4 estimates as transaction revenue falls below $1 billion
Coinbase (COIN) missed fourth-quarter earnings forecasts on Thursday, thanks to weaker trading activity and lower crypto asset prices.
The U.S.-based crypto exchange posted total revenue of $1.78 billion against estimates for $1.83 billion. Adjusted EPS of $0.66 was well lower than the consensus $0.86.
Total transaction revenue of $983 million was below forecasts for $1.02 billion and down from $1.046 billion in the third quarter and $1.556 billion in the fourth quarter one year ago.
Subscription revenue of $727.4 million was down from $746.7 million the previous quarter and up from $641.1 million a year earlier.
Through Feb. 10 of the first quarter, the company saw transaction revenue of about $420 million. It guided to full-quarter subscription revenue of $550-$630 million.
“We continue to be optimistic about the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry,” Coinbase said. “Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good, or as bad as it seems. While asset prices can be volatile, under the surface an undercurrent of technological change and crypto product adoption continues.”
Shares are modestly higher in after-hours trading, but fell 7.9% during the regular session, extending year-to-date declines to 40%.
Crypto World
Vitalik Buterin Advocates for Decentralized Reform in Russia’s Governance
TLDR
- Vitalik Buterin condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling it criminal aggression and not a situation of equal fault.
- He argued that lasting peace in Ukraine and Europe can only be achieved through internal change within Russia.
- Buterin proposed that decentralized governance could be the key to reforming Russia’s political system.
- He highlighted tools like quadratic voting and zero-knowledge systems as potential solutions for improving decision-making.
- Buterin emphasized the importance of involving more people in governance through platforms like pol.is to find societal compromises.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, shared his views on Russia’s future in a post published on February 12. In the post, originally written in Russian, Buterin called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “criminal aggression.” He emphasized the need for structural reform within Russia to achieve long-term peace and security, advocating for a decentralized governance model.
Buterin Criticizes Russia’s War and Calls for Internal Change
In his recent post, Vitalik Buterin condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, labeling it as “criminal aggression.” He strongly rejected the idea that both sides are equally at fault, which some have argued. Buterin clarified that peace in Europe and Ukraine could not be achieved through a simple ceasefire alone.
He suggested that the best path to stability in the region involves internal change within Russia itself. For Russia to secure lasting peace, Buterin proposed significant structural reforms. These reforms, according to him, should focus on decentralizing governance, moving away from centralized power.
Vitalik Buterin Advocates for Decentralized Governance
Vitalik Buterin emphasized the potential of decentralized governance to transform Russia. He mentioned specific tools that could help in building a new system, such as quadratic voting and zero-knowledge (ZK) systems. These tools, Buterin argued, could allow large groups of people to find common ground without relying on a small elite.
The Ethereum co-founder believes that decentralized governance could be key to building a more transparent and fair system. In his post, he also referenced platforms like pol.is, which allow for broader participation in decision-making. These digital tools, Buterin suggested, could provide a way for citizens to directly engage with governance.
New Leadership and Ideas for Russia’s Future
Buterin also discussed the importance of new leadership in Russia, highlighting the need for fresh ideas. He stressed that the Russian opposition should focus on involving more people in decision-making. This approach would help avoid the concentration of power in the hands of a few.
He pointed out that using platforms for online voting and discussions could allow people to reach societal compromises. These compromises could then be turned into official policies without the need for intermediaries. According to Buterin, achieving consensus in this manner is crucial for Russia’s long-term stability.
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