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RWA Market Tops $24.9B as Tokenized Gold, Stocks, and Treasuries Reshape Crypto Finance

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TLDR:

  • Tokenized RWAs hit $24.9B in Feb 2026, up 289% YoY as six asset classes cross the $1B mark.
  • BlackRock’s BUIDL leads tokenized Treasuries at $2.2B after surging 239% over the past year.
  • Tokenized stocks reached $786M since mid-2025, growing independently of Bitcoin’s price swings.
  • Only 11.8% of $8.49B in RWA stablecoins are active in DeFi due to KYC and whitelist barriers.

The tokenized real-world asset market crossed $24.9 billion in February 2026. That figure marks a 289% increase from $6.4 billion just one year prior. 

Six asset classes now individually exceed $1 billion in tokenized value. The market is no longer driven by a single sector. It is diversifying fast.

Treasuries, Gold, and Equities Drive Explosive RWA Expansion

U.S. Treasuries remained the largest segment. They grew 183% year-over-year, reaching $10.8 billion, according to data compiled by Nexus Data Labs.

Active products expanded from 35 to 53, with entries from Fidelity, ChinaAMC, and VanEck. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund now leads the space at $2.2 billion, up 239% in 12 months.

Ondo Finance’s combined Treasury exposure reached $2 billion across OUSG and USDY. 

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Superstate’s USTB grew 499% to $0.8 billion. WisdomTree’s WTGXX surged 759%. The top-three concentration in this market dropped from 61% to 48%, per Nexus Data.

Tokenized stocks are the newest category and the fastest-growing. They scaled from near-zero to $786 million since mid-2025. 

Platforms including Ondo Finance, Backed Finance, Dinari, and Robinhood now offer onchain access to NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL, SPY, and QQQ. Growth continued even while Bitcoin dipped below $70,000.

Tokenized gold also posted strong gains. Circulating supply on Ethereum nearly doubled, from 687,000 to over 1.3 million troy ounces in 12 months. 

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The spot price of gold rose 80% over the same period, from $2,963 to $5,327. Supply growth outpaced price gains. That signals active minting, not passive price appreciation.

88% of RWA-Backed Stablecoins Remain Locked Outside DeFi Protocols

The stablecoin side of the RWA story tells a different tale. 

Total RWA-backed stablecoin supply stands at $8.49 billion, per DeFiLlama. Only $1 billion of that, roughly 11.8%, is actively deployed in DeFi protocols.

DAI dominates by market cap at 53%, or $4.48 billion. USDY from Ondo Finance holds 15% of supply. But when filtered for active DeFi usage, USDY drops to just 1.99% of utilization. YLDS, at $598 million in supply, disappears from DeFi entirely.

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The gap comes down to access restrictions. KYC requirements and whitelisting walls block permissioned tokens from integrating with permissionless DeFi contracts. 

Permissionless assets show a stark contrast. reUSD posts 96.7% DeFi utilization. USDtb reaches 29.5%. Legacy FRAX sits at 28%.

That leaves $7.49 billion, roughly 88% of all RWA-backed stablecoin supply, sitting outside DeFi. The infrastructure exists. The capital is onchain. 

Composability remains the gap between presence and productivity.

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Seattle CFO Sentenced to Prison After Losing $35M in Secret Crypto Gamble

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TLDR

  • Nevin Shetty, former chief financial officer, covertly transferred $35 million in corporate assets to cryptocurrency platforms without authorization
  • Funds were deposited into decentralized finance protocols offering annual yields exceeding 20%
  • The May 2022 Terra crash eliminated virtually all invested capital
  • Following conviction on four wire fraud charges, Shetty received a 24-month prison sentence
  • The unauthorized investments resulted in approximately 60 job losses and nearly bankrupted the organization

A federal court has sentenced Nevin Shetty, who previously served as CFO for a Seattle-based software company, to 24 months behind bars after he illegally diverted $35 million in corporate assets into cryptocurrency ventures under his personal control.

The sentence was delivered by a Seattle federal judge after a nine-day trial that wrapped up on November 7, 2025. The jury delivered guilty verdicts on all four wire fraud charges.

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Shetty assumed the chief financial officer position at the startup in March 2021. Company policy explicitly mandated that all corporate funds remain in low-risk, conservative investment vehicles such as money market accounts.

Ironically, despite participating in drafting these investment guidelines, Shetty established a cryptocurrency consulting entity named HighTower Treasury in early 2022. The venture had zero additional customers.

After learning in April 2022 that he would be stripped of his CFO responsibilities due to inadequate job performance, Shetty took action. Over a twelve-day period from April 1 to April 12, 2022, he executed wire transfers totaling $35,000,100 from a Chase banking location near his residence into HighTower Treasury accounts.

Not a single board member or executive colleague had knowledge of these transactions.

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Shetty subsequently allocated the capital into DeFi lending protocols. These platforms advertised interest rates of 20% annually or higher.

During the initial thirty days, the positions generated approximately $133,000 in gains.

When the Crypto Market Collapsed

The initial profits proved short-lived. When the Terra blockchain ecosystem imploded in May 2022, it catalyzed a broader cryptocurrency market downturn. By May 13, 2022, Shetty’s portfolio had depreciated to essentially worthless.

Facing the reality that $35 million had evaporated, Shetty disclosed his actions to two executive colleagues. His employment was terminated on the spot.

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U.S. District Judge Tana Lin emphasized the devastating impact of the fraud. The capital loss compelled the company to terminate roughly 60 employees and brought the business to the brink of insolvency.

Shetty faced indictment on wire fraud counts in May 2023. His conviction came in November 2025 following the jury trial, with sentencing occurring in March 2026.

Crypto Fraud Cases Continue in U.S. Courts

This prosecution represents just one among numerous prominent cryptocurrency fraud proceedings that have advanced through federal courts recently.

FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, for instance, received a 25-year sentence in 2024. His attorneys have filed appellate briefs, and as of Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has yet to render a decision following oral arguments heard in November.

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Beyond the two-year incarceration period, Shetty faces an order to make full restitution of the $35 million. Following his release, he must complete three years under supervised probation.

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ZEC’s Historic Rally and Collapse: What Drove the $7 Billion Wipeout

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TLDR:

  • ZEC surged over 700% from sub-$50 levels, briefly hitting $750 and nearing a $10 billion market cap in 2025.
  • Winklevoss Capital and Cypherpunk Technologies poured over $76 million into ZEC during the peak privacy narrative rally.
  • Zcash DeFi TVL collapsed from $30 million to under $2 million weeks before the governance crisis became public news.
  • ECC’s full leadership resigned in January 2026, triggering an instant 14–25% price drop and a $7 billion valuation loss. 

ZEC, the native token of Zcash’s privacy protocol, experienced one of crypto’s sharpest reversals in recent memory.

Over just a few months, the asset gained over 700%, drew billions in institutional capital, then shed most of its value.

ZEC Rally Built on Privacy Narrative and Institutional Demand

From sub-$50 levels in late summer 2025, ZEC surged more than 700% within a matter of weeks. The token climbed to $400 in October before briefly touching a peak near $750 in November.

That pace placed it among the top performers across the entire crypto market. It also briefly overtook Monero in market capitalization, pushing total valuation close to $10 billion.

The surge was not purely speculative. Privacy had returned as one of the most discussed themes in the industry. A report from a16z’s State of Crypto documented a notable rise in online searches around privacy-focused tools.

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Prominent figures like Arthur Hayes and Naval Ravikant backed the concept of privacy-first transactions, framing it as a natural evolution beyond standard crypto infrastructure.

Institutional capital moved in quickly after that narrative gained ground. Cypherpunk Technologies purchased $18 million in ZEC.

Winklevoss Capital added more than $58 million, while Grayscale reopened its Zcash Trust to buyers. These purchases collectively created a strong base and helped sustain upward momentum.

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The November 2025 halving further shaped market conditions. Block rewards dropped from 3.125 to 1.5625 ZEC per block.

Separately, the ZIP-1015 lockbox mechanism redirected 12% of rewards going forward. Together, these supply-side changes reinforced the bullish case during that period.

TVL Collapse and Governance Crisis Erased $7 Billion in Value

Even before any governance news emerged, early warning signs appeared within the ecosystem. At the rally’s peak, Zcash DeFi recorded over $30 million in total value locked.

That figure fell to under $2 million within weeks. Prices, however, remained elevated, creating a visible gap between on-chain activity and market valuation.

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That kind of disconnect tends to precede broader corrections in crypto markets. When capital exits an ecosystem quietly, it often reflects weakened conviction among active participants. The token price held on sentiment alone, while actual on-chain usage told a different story.

The breaking point arrived in January 2026. The entire leadership team of the Electric Coin Company resigned following a governance conflict with the Zcash Bootstrap nonprofit board.

As @ourcryptotalk reported, prices fell between 14% and 25% almost immediately after the announcement surfaced.

Despite the resignations, Zcash’s core protocol continued operating without interruption. The departing developers formed a new independent company and resumed work on privacy tools, including continued development of the Zashi wallet.

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However, market confidence had already shifted. ZEC’s valuation fell from nearly $10 billion to around $3 billion, erasing over $7 billion in total market value across the period.

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XRP Price Analysis: Potential Decline to $1 Looms as ETFs Experience Weekly Outflows

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xrp price

Key Takeaways

  • Technical analyst ChartNerd forecasts XRP may decline to $1 through a liquidity sweep before reversing higher.
  • Exchange-traded funds tracking XRP saw their first weekly capital exodus since January 30, with outflows exceeding $4 million.
  • The digital asset currently hovers around $1.35 following a brief decline to $1.347 amid increased selling pressure.
  • Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed optimism about long-term holders being rewarded within a five-year timeframe.
  • Large holder activity, tracked via the Flow 30-DMA indicator, has shifted positive for the first time since late 2024.

XRP maintains its position near $1.35 following a challenging week characterized by institutional fund withdrawals, technical resistance, and cautionary price forecasts. Despite near-term headwinds, Ripple’s leadership maintains an optimistic long-range outlook.

xrp price
XRP Price

The cryptocurrency declined from $1.3666 to $1.3554 throughout the previous 24-hour period, momentarily reaching $1.347 as trading activity intensified. Support emerged around the $1.35 threshold, with the asset subsequently consolidating within a narrow corridor between $1.35 and $1.37.

Technical analyst ChartNerd shared analysis on X suggesting XRP might retreat to $1, highlighting significant liquidity concentration between $1 and $1.20. Additional liquidity pools exist around the $1.80 level.

According to ChartNerd, the probable March trajectory involves an initial push toward $1.80, subsequently followed by a pullback into the $1 zone. This pattern represents a classic “liquidity grab” — a strategic price movement intended to activate stop-loss orders before a possible trend reversal.

Exchange-Traded Funds Experience First Weekly Capital Flight Since January

Data from SoSoValue reveals XRP exchange-traded funds recorded net weekly withdrawals slightly exceeding $4 million. This represents the initial weekly capital exodus observed since January 30.

XRP ETFs weekly flows
Source: SoSo Value

These investment vehicles attracted capital during the week’s opening three trading sessions before momentum shifted on March 5 and 6. March 6 witnessed particularly heavy redemptions totaling $16.62 million — representing the largest single-session withdrawal since January 29.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs experienced parallel outflows measuring $349 million, $83 million, and $8 million respectively throughout the identical timeframe.

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Ripple Executive Emphasizes Strategic Patience

Speaking at the XRP Australia 2026 gathering, Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse conveyed to participants that today’s investors might discover themselves in a “very happy place” over a five-year horizon.

Garlinghouse highlighted the growing momentum behind institutional blockchain integration, encompassing asset tokenization, stablecoin deployment, and distributed ledger settlement infrastructure.

He characterized advancement as incremental progression rather than a singular transformative event. “There’s not one switch; there are hundreds and thousands of switches,” he explained.

Evernorth’s CEO Asheesh Birla emphasized that genuine financial industry transformation requires approximately a decade. He noted that immediate price fluctuations frequently fail to capture the underlying technological evolution.

One encouraging blockchain metric: the XRP Whale Flow 30-DMA indicator has registered positive territory for the first instance in over ninety days, indicating renewed accumulation by substantial holders.

XRP presently defends the $1.35 support threshold, with market participants monitoring closely for a decisive directional breakout.

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Federal Judge Tosses Terror Financing Case Against Binance and CZ Following Court Victory

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TLDR

  • Manhattan federal court threw out terrorism financing claims filed by 535 victims against Binance, CZ, and Binance.US
  • Judge ruled plaintiffs didn’t establish direct connection between exchange operations and individual terror attacks
  • Court found Binance likely had “general awareness” of illicit financing activity on its platform
  • Plaintiffs given 60-day window to submit revised complaint with stronger evidence
  • Binance labeled the decision “a complete vindication,” though two separate lawsuits continue

A Manhattan-based federal judge threw out all allegations in a significant Anti-Terrorism Act case against Binance this past Friday. The legal action involved 535 individuals who were either victims or family members of those affected by 64 separate terrorist incidents.

The defendants in the case included Binance, its co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, and BAM Trading Services, which operates Binance.US. Those filing suit claimed the cryptocurrency platform enabled terrorist organizations to transfer money using digital assets.

The terrorist incidents cited occurred from 2016 through 2024. Organizations mentioned in the legal filing included Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, al-Qaeda, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

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Judge Jeannette A. Vargas from the US District Court for the Southern District of New York delivered the decision. Her written judgment spanned 62 pages.

The ruling acknowledged that Binance appeared “generally aware” that its platform facilitated terrorist financing. Evidence included Binance’s track record of anti-money laundering compliance failures, its provision of services to Iranian users under sanctions, and internal company messages demonstrating executives understood terrorists were using the platform.

Yet general awareness proved insufficient. The court determined that those bringing the lawsuit needed to demonstrate “knowing and substantial assistance” with clear connections to the particular attacks that resulted in their harm. The complaint fell short of this requirement.

What the Court Found on Hamas and Iran Transactions

The legal documents outlined approximately $56 million in transfers associated with Hamas and $59 million connected to Palestinian Islamic Jihad flowing through Binance. The court characterized this segment of the lawsuit as “a closer call.”

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Binance had also acknowledged internally that it was aware of Hamas conducting transactions on its platform since at least 2019. Nonetheless, the court determined the plaintiffs’ argument depended excessively on fungibility — the concept that because Binance enabled widespread illicit transactions, some money must have reached those responsible for the attacks.

The judgment referenced a 2025 Second Circuit ruling in Ashley v. Deutsche Bank. That decision elevated legal standards for terrorism financing lawsuits against financial entities.

Judge Vargas observed that another case, Raanan v. Binance, had withstood dismissal motions in February 2025 despite similar accusations. However, that proceeding concluded before the Ashley decision, which she indicated now demands a different legal outcome.

Binance’s Response and Ongoing Scrutiny

Binance General Counsel Eleanor Hughes characterized the dismissal as “a complete vindication.” CZ shared on X that centralized cryptocurrency platforms have “zero motive” to enable terrorists, arguing such individuals produce minimal trading fees.

Zhao entered a guilty plea to federal charges involving anti-money laundering violations and sanctions breaches in November 2023 and subsequently received a presidential pardon from President Trump.

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The judge authorized plaintiffs to submit a revised complaint within 60 days. She indicated shortcomings might be addressed through more precise information regarding wallet ownership, transaction dates, and connections between account users and the attacks.

Two related legal proceedings remain ongoing: the Raanan case brought by October 7 survivors, and another lawsuit filed in North Dakota during November 2025.

Additionally, Binance continues to contest accusations from 11 US senators alleging the exchange handled more than $1 billion in transactions connected to Iranian entities.

Remember: Preserve all tokens like [[EMBED_0]], [[IMG_0]], [[LINK_START_0]], [[LINK_END_0]], [[SCRIPT_0]], [[FIGURE_0]] etc. exactly as they appear. These are placeholders for embeds, images, and links that must not be changed.

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Prediction Market Giant Kalshi Faces Federal Lawsuit Over Khamenei Bet Payout Refusal

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TLDR:

  • Kalshi is facing a $54 million class-action lawsuit over its refusal to pay out on the Khamenei market.
  • Plaintiffs argue Kalshi’s death carveout was applied after Khamenei’s death, not before trading began.
  • Kalshi claims its rules were always clear and that it reimbursed all fees and net losses to affected users.
  • The lawsuit could set a major legal precedent for how prediction markets handle politically sensitive events.

Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, is now at the center of a federal class-action lawsuit. Plaintiffs allege the company refused to pay approximately $54 million to users.

These users had bet that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1. Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on Saturday.

The lawsuit was filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California.

Plaintiffs Allege Kalshi Invoked Death Clause After the Fact

The lawsuit claims Kalshi did not apply its “death carveout” rule until after Khamenei was killed. According to plaintiffs, the company used this provision to avoid honoring payouts. They argue this move was both “deceptive” and “predatory” toward its own users.

Users say the market’s language was “clear, unambiguous and binary” from the start. The terms stated Khamenei could leave office for any reason, including death. Many bettors considered his death the most realistic outcome, given the military situation.

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The lawsuit also notes that Kalshi continued accepting trades as reports of Khamenei’s death began to surface. Plaintiffs argue this further damaged users who were unaware the rules would later shift. This timing has become a central point of the legal dispute.

The complaint further states that “consumers understood that the most likely — and in many cases the only realistic — mechanism” for Khamenei leaving office was death.

It also asserts that “defendants understood this as well.” With a U.S. naval presence near Iran and conflict widely anticipated, the lawsuit argues users placed bets with that reality fully in mind.

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Kalshi Disputes Claims, Says Rules Were Always Clear

Kalshi responded to the lawsuit with a firm denial of any wrongdoing. A company spokesperson stated the platform had “included every precaution to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death.” According to Kalshi, the rules were consistent and transparent from the beginning.

The spokesperson added that Kalshi reimbursed all fees and net losses directly out of pocket. “We even reimbursed all fees and net losses out of pocket — to the tune of millions of dollars — to make sure not a single person lost money on this market,” the spokesperson said. The company maintains no customer suffered a financial loss.

Kalshi further insisted that it followed its own established guidelines throughout the process. The platform argues the death carveout was always part of its market structure. It was not, the company says, introduced after the fact.

Prediction markets have grown sharply in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Platforms like Kalshi allow users to trade yes-or-no contracts on real-world events.

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These markets accurately predicted Donald Trump’s election victory ahead of traditional polling methods. The outcome of this lawsuit may shape how such platforms handle sensitive, high-stakes markets going forward.

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1win Arranges Private Charter Flights for VIP Clients Leaving the UAE Amid Aviation Disruptions

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1win Arranges Private Charter Flights for VIP Clients Leaving the UAE Amid Aviation Disruptions

[PRESS RELEASE – Duabu, United Arab Emirates, March 8th, 2026]

As aviation disruptions continue in the Gulf region following reports of a drone strike near Dubai International Airport, global crypto platform 1win has organized a private evacuation operation for its VIP clients currently in the United Arab Emirates.

“Safety first,” the Owner of 1win commented on X. “When airports in Dubai closed, and many were stranded, not knowing how to get out, in less than a day, we organized the evacuation of our VIP clients on all private jets, so they could return home safely without waiting for the situation to stabilize. We are here to support you in any situation.”

Commercial aviation in the region has been heavily disrupted. The airline Emirates temporarily suspended flights to and from Dubai International Airport, urging passengers not to travel to the airport until the security situation stabilizes. Several international routes have also been cancelled in the coming weeks as airlines reassess operational risks.

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To provide additional flexibility for VIP clients who were unable or unwilling to rely on disrupted commercial flights, 1win coordinated private aviation options with several international charter operators. The initiative focused on offering direct departures from airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi to destinations across Latin America, Asia, and the CIS region.

Industry reports indicate that demand for business aviation in the UAE has surged sharply as travelers seek alternatives to disrupted commercial flights. Several aviation outlets and international media reported a significant spike in private jet charters and sharply rising prices for departures from Dubai, reflecting the growing demand for alternative travel options during the crisis.

1win’s charter program remains ongoing, with additional aircraft arranged depending on client travel needs.

About 1win

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Founded in 2016, 1win is a crypto platform in the global gaming industry. Operating across Asia, Latin America, and Africa, 1win offers a wide range of services adapted to regional audiences. In 2024, 1win partnered with actor Johnny Sins as its brand ambassador. In 2025, MMA legend Jon Jones joined 1win as its global ambassador. American professional wrestler and mixed martial artist, Gable Steveson, stepped into the 1win global ambassador team earlier this year.

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Bitcoin Struggles to Maintain $67K, Pi Network’s PI Plunges After Recent Rally: Weekend Watch

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BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView


PI has erased much of the recent gains, but still trades around $0.20.

Bitcoin’s underwhelming price moves over the weekend continued as the asset dipped below $67,000 earlier today for the first time since Tuesday.

Most altcoins are also in the red today, with ETH slipping further away from the coveted $2,000 level, while ADA and XMR are down by over 2%. ZEC and PI have dumped the most daily.

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BTC Fights for $67K

Last weekend brought intense volatility for the crypto markets after the US and Israel attacked Iran. BTC dropped immediately from $67,000 to $63,000 but rebounded within the day to $68,000 after reports that the Iranian Supreme Leader was killed during the attacks.

The gains continued by the middle of the business week when bitcoin peaked at $74,000, a level not seen in a month. However, the bears stepped up at this moment and didn’t allow for any further increases.

Just the opposite; BTC started to lose value but dumped the most on Friday after a weak US jobs report and Trump’s latest threats and remarks on Iran and Cuba. It slipped further on Sunday, dipping to $66,600, which became its lowest level since Tuesday. However, it reacted well and now trades almost a grand higher.

As of now, BTC’s market cap has settled at $1.350 trillion, while its dominance over the alts sits quietly at 56.6% on CG.

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BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView

PI Nosedives

Pi Network’s native token defied the overall market correction in the past few days, skyrocketing to a three-month peak of over $0.23 yesterday. However, it failed there, and the subsequent rejection has pushed it south hard to $0.20 as of press time. ZEC follows suit in terms of daily losses and now struggles below $200.

Most larger-cap alts are also in the red, but in a less painful manner. ETH has decisively broken below the $2,000 level after another minor decline, while BNB is down to $620. SOL, XRP, ADA, XMR, and LINK are also down today.

The total crypto market cap has shed around $30 billion daily and is below $2.4 trillion as of now on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Mar 8. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Mar 8. Source: QuantifyCrypto

 

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Bitcoin Sell-off To $65K Likely As Traders Run From Global Risks

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Bitcoin Sell-off To $65K Likely As Traders Run From Global Risks

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin faced pressure as rising oil prices and weak US data sparked risk-off sentiment and drove investors to gold.

  • A redemption spike in private credit funds from BlackRock and Blackstone signaled growing anxiety among retail investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 7% correction between Thursday and Friday following a failed attempt to reclaim the $74,000 level. The pullback tracked weak US macroeconomic data and a spike in oil prices as the US and Israel-Iran war entered its seventh day. Traders now question whether Bitcoin can maintain support above $65,000.

Typically, deteriorating economic conditions pave the way for monetary stimulus, often boosting the stock market in anticipation of increased liquidity. However, this cycle saw the S&P 500 retreat as a generalized risk-off sentiment erased all of Bitcoin’s gains from Wednesday. 

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

US retail sales fell 0.2% in January compared to the previous month, while the US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Despite the cooling labor market, investors lack confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, as rising energy costs typically generate inflationary pressure. 

Fed target rate probabilities for April 2026 FOMC. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

US Treasury markets currently price a 78% probability that interest rates will remain steady between 3.5% and 3.75% through late April. A flight to safety pattern emerged as gold surged while the Russell 2000 Small Capitalization index hit a two-month low. Bitcoin’s drop below $85,000 in late January hindered its reputation as an uncorrelated asset, especially as silver rose to become the second most valuable asset.

Largest tradable assets by market capitalization, USD. Source: 8marketcap

Traders also fear a wave of corporate layoffs driven by artificial intelligence automation. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that AI is increasingly filling roles that once required manual labor. Schmid added that “older Americans are retiring,” causing a real-time structural change in the labor market, according to Yahoo Finance.

War and credit strain weigh on Bitcoin’s outlook

A prolonged war suggests increased US government spending, reducing the fiscal capacity for monetary stimulus aimed at economic expansion. Investors increasingly fear rising logistics costs beyond the commodities sector. Shipping giant Maersk announced on Friday the temporary suspension of two routes connecting the Middle East to Asia and Europe.

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Bitcoin’s retest of the $68,000 level on Friday indicates that technical resistance levels identified by analysts may be secondary to geopolitical events impacting the oil and energy industries and, by extension, global growth prospects. The current weakness in risk assets appears to be a reflection of poor macroeconomic visibility rather than a structural collapse.

Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’

ICE Bank of America US high yield index option-adjusted spread. Source: TradingView

A potential deterioration in trader expectations could originate within the US private credit market. BlackRock reportedly limited withdrawals from one of its largest credit funds following a spike in redemption requests, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday. Earlier this week, Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund fulfilled requests to tender a record 7.9% of shares, signaling rising retail anxiety.

Currently, the 3% option-adjusted spread for riskier firms is hovering within the normal range seen over the last six months. Periods of significant economic turmoil typically push this indicator above 5.0%, a level last seen in March 2023. As a result, there is no clear sign that Bitcoin will break below $65,000, even with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic growth.