Key Takeaways

• Market Signal: Bitcoin’s decoupling from a stable Nasdaq indicates a sharp withdrawal of dollar liquidity.
• Macro Thesis: Hayes predicts AI advancements will trigger white-collar job losses, leading to consumer credit defaults.
• Critical Data: Crypto derivatives markets saw a massive $12 billion leverage washout in a single week.

Key Takeaways

• Surge: WLFI spikes 20% to trade near $0.118, eyeing a confirmed breakout above the $0.12 resistance zone.
• Whales: A fresh wallet withdrew 25 million tokens ($2.75M), signaling high-conviction buying before the event start.
• Catalyst: The sold-out Mar-a-Lago forum kicks off today with top finance and Trump Crypto figures.

In a private Florida gathering at Mar-a-Lago, lawmakers, industry executives, and crypto leaders converged to discuss the policy terrain shaping the United States’ approach to digital assets. The forum, organized by World Liberty Financial—the company led by Donald Trump’s two eldest sons—put a spotlight on how Washington plans to regulate markets, custody, and the evolving landscape of tokenized assets. In the lead-up to the event, World Liberty’s WLFI token surged more than 23%, trading around $0.12 after topping $466 million in volume over the prior 24 hours. The gathering drew co-founders Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, BitGo co-founder and CEO Mike Belshe, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig, among others, signaling a melding of political influence and entrepreneurial crypto interests.

The setting—a private club forum rather than a public hearing—did not keep the subject from the spotlight. Participants were slated to address a broad array of policy issues central to the crypto economy, from market structure and regulation to concerns about stablecoin yields and the oversight framework for digital assets. As lawmakers debate a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill, Selig is scheduled to engage with New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin to discuss provisions that would clarify how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission oversee the space.

While the guest list underscored bipartisan interest in crypto policy, President Trump himself was not listed as a participant as of Wednesday morning. The event nonetheless underscored the president’s family’s ongoing entanglement with crypto ventures, a dynamic that has drawn scrutiny and speculation from observers and policymakers alike. It comes at a moment when several Democratic senators are pushing to ensure that the market structure bill includes robust safeguards around conflicts of interest for lawmakers and officials who stand to benefit from crypto industry activity while in office. The push reflects a broader debate about how to align regulatory clarity with accountability in a fast-moving sector.

The conversation happened against a broader policy backdrop. In January, the Senate Agriculture Committee—responsible for CFTC oversight—advanced its version of the market structure bill along partisan lines, with no Democrats voting in favor. Separately, the Senate Banking Committee postponed its markup after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong raised concerns about tokenized equities and decentralized finance within the bill’s framework. The tension between promoting innovation and establishing guardrails remains a central feature of the policy discourse surrounding digital assets.

Beyond policy specifics, the forum touched on a wider narrative: the growing convergence of politics and crypto finance. Media coverage has highlighted the rising fortunes tied to crypto projects associated with the Trump family; Bloomberg reporters have cited substantial revenue tied to crypto ventures since 2025. In 2019, Trump himself characterized Bitcoin as “not a fan” and described the cryptocurrency as a “scam” after stepping away from office, a stance that has since given way to a more active, albeit cautious, engagement with the asset class in various public and private channels.

Key takeaways

• World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token jumped about 23% ahead of the forum, reaching roughly $0.12 amid a 24-hour trading volume above $466 million, signaling notable market attention around the event.
• The attendee roster blended political figures with crypto executives, including Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, BitGo’s Mike Belshe, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig, underscoring the policy-business nexus in the space.
• The gathering occurred as the US contemplates a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill; policymakers discussed how the CFTC and SEC should oversee digital assets, with Selig engaging NYSE President Lynn Martin on bill provisions.
• Democratic lawmakers are pressing for amendments to address conflicts of interest among public officials profiting from crypto, highlighting governance concerns amid bills still under consideration.
• Public narratives around Trump’s crypto involvement—contrasted with his past comments about Bitcoin—illustrate the evolving political calculus around crypto ventures and regulation.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Price impact: Positive. WLFI’s 23% surge ahead of the forum reflects market anticipation around policy developments and the profile of attendees.

Market context: The event sits within a broader regulatory debate about how the US should supervise digital assets, with ongoing discussions over market structure, stablecoin governance, and the boundaries between innovation and investor protection in a rapidly evolving space.

Why it matters

The dynamic at Mar-a-Lago illustrates how policy, politics, and market activity are increasingly interwoven in crypto. For investors, the WLFI price move signals that markets are listening to policy signals and that high-profile policy conversations can move tokenized assets and related markets in the short term. For builders and issuers, the discussions spotlight the priority of clear, implementable regulations that reduce ambiguity for product development, token structures, and custody arrangements, while preserving room for innovation.

For policymakers, the event underscores the challenge of balancing competitive US leadership in digital finance with robust safeguards. The push from some senators to tighten conflicts-of-interest provisions signals a demand for greater accountability as the sector grows more entwined with political actors and public policy. The dialogue around how to adjudicate tokenized assets, stablecoins, and prediction markets remains unsettled, but the cross-party interest in clarifying oversight points to a longer, structured path toward regulatory clarity.

In a broader sense, the gathering reflects a sector-wide trend toward closer collaboration between industry veterans and policymakers, a development that could shape the pace and direction of future legislation. The intersection of family-led business ventures, public policy, and major exchanges adds a layer of visibility that may influence investor sentiment, regulatory expectations, and the strategic decisions of market participants in the months ahead.

What to watch next

• Follow the progression of the market structure bill in the Senate, including any markup dates and committee votes.
• Track statements or amendments from lawmakers on conflicts-of-interest provisions for officials in crypto-related roles.
• Monitor updates from the CFTC and SEC on supervisory approaches to digital assets, including any new guidance on tokenized products or stablecoins.
• Observe WLFI’s trading activity and any official updates from World Liberty Financial regarding the token’s supply and use cases.
• Watch for additional disclosures from figures involved in the forum and any resulting policy white papers or draft legislation.

Sources & verification

• World Liberty Financial’s X post announcing the event and attendees: https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/2024129983162048855
• Democrats file amendments to crypto market structure bill: https://cointelegraph.com/news/democrats-file-amendments-crypto-market-structure
• CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s remarks on prediction markets: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cftc-michael-selig-defending-prediction-markets
• Bloomberg feature on Trump family crypto involvement: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-20/donald-trump-family-net-worth-increasingly-comes-from-crypto
• Trump’s past Bitcoin stance and related coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-bitcoin-u-turn-critic-became-pump-signal

Key figures and next steps: policy momentum at a private crypto forum

The gathering at Mar-a-Lago illustrates how the policy conversation has moved from abstract debate to a more concrete, event-driven engagement among policymakers, executives, and investors. As the US continues to refine its approach to market structure, custody, and the oversight of digital assets, the interplay between political action and market dynamics will likely intensify. Observers will be watching not only the outcomes of committee discussions and potential amendments but also how market participants respond to the evolving regulatory signals that emerge from such high-profile, private interlocutors.

The MicroStrategy stock started the post-President’s Day session on a weak note. MSTR closed nearly 4% lower compared to its Feb. 13 (last Friday’s) close, reflecting renewed selling pressure despite positive corporate news.

This decline comes even after Strategy, previously MicroStrategy, added more Bitcoin, lowering its average purchase cost. However, charts now show that this latest BTC average drop didn’t mean much for the immediate fate of the MSTR. A much larger downside risk is forming beneath the surface.

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MicroStrategy’s Latest Bitcoin Buy Lowers Average Cost Only Slightly

MicroStrategy recently purchased 2,486 Bitcoin at an average price of $67,710. This latest acquisition increased its total holdings from 714,644 BTC earlier this month to 717,131 BTC.

Because this purchase was made below MicroStrategy’s previous average cost, it helped lower the company’s overall Bitcoin cost basis. MicroStrategy’s average acquisition price dropped from $76,052 (early this month) to $76,027 (at press time). This represents a $25 average cost reduction.

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While this technically improves MicroStrategy’s balance sheet, the impact remains small relative to its total position.

The company still holds Bitcoin at an average cost above $76,000, which remains significantly higher than many earlier cycle acquisitions. More importantly, market indicators show that big money investors are not reacting positively, even to this development.

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Capital Flow Signals Strategy Investors Remain Cautious

One key indicator explaining investor behavior is the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. This metric measures whether large investors are putting money into a stock or pulling money out by combining price and volume data. When CMF stays above zero, it signals net buying pressure. When it falls toward zero or below, it shows capital inflows are weakening.

Strategy’s CMF has been trending lower and is now sitting close to the zero line, on the brink of breaking below. It is also approaching a critical ascending trendline support. This shows that despite the latest Bitcoin purchase, large investors are not aggressively accumulating the MSTR stock. Instead, capital inflows remain weak.

This lack of conviction becomes more concerning when combined with weakening momentum signals.

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Hidden Bearish Divergence Warns of Potential Major MSTR Price Correction

Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, shows a hidden bearish divergence forming. RSI measures buying and selling strength on a scale from 0 to 100 and helps identify weakening trends.

Between Dec. 9 and Feb. 13, MicroStrategy’s stock price formed a lower high, meaning the price failed to reach its previous peak. However, during the same period, RSI formed a higher high. This pattern is called hidden bearish divergence. It signals that sellers remain in control, and the downtrend is expected to continue. The MSTR stock price is down over 60% on a 6-month timeframe, highlighting the said downtrend.

This same signal appeared earlier between Dec. 9 and Jan. 14. After that divergence formed, MicroStrategy stock dropped more than 45%, falling to its recent low near $104. The appearance of a similar structure now suggests another correction could develop if selling pressure continues. But this time the correction can have similar consequences.

Bear Flag Structure Shows MSTR Stock Could Fall Much Further

MicroStrategy’s price structure now shows a bear flag pattern forming. A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern where the price temporarily moves upward before continuing its larger downtrend. After falling sharply earlier this February, the MSTR stock rebounded. However, this rebound has remained within a rising channel that forms the flag portion of the pattern.

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MicroStrategy stock is currently trading near $128, very close to the lower boundary of this structure. If the price breaks below the $124 support level, the bear flag breakdown could begin.

Based on the height of the previous decline, this breakdown could push MicroStrategy stock toward $71, provided support levels at $104 and 86 break. This would represent a decline of more than 40% from current levels.

Recovery remains possible if buyers regain control. A move above $139 would weaken the bearish outlook, while a full recovery above $155 would invalidate the bearish structure entirely.

However, the bearish setup could also invalidate even without a sharp breakout. If the price continues rising slowly and the current channel extends beyond half of the original pole’s height, the bear flag would lose its validity. In that case, the structure would shift from a bearish continuation pattern into a broader recovery channel, reducing the immediate downside risk.

For now, MicroStrategy has successfully lowered its Bitcoin cost basis slightly. But capital flow weakness, bearish divergence, and fragile price structure all suggest that this small improvement may not be enough to prevent a larger stock correction.

Retail brokerage Robinhood announced plans to launch a fund that would give individual investors access to a basket of private companies. The initiative is positioned as an effort to address persistent imbalances in access to capital markets.

However, the structure has drawn comparisons to the initial coin offering (ICO) era. Though the fund will be regulated, it carries several material risks.

Opening Private Markets To Retail

Robinhood formally announced its Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) on Tuesday, anticipating that it would go public on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the coming weeks under the symbol RVI.

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The fund is set to offer exposure to a range of private companies, including Revolut, Oura, Ramp, Databricks, Airwallex, Mercor, and Boom. Robinhood also plans to broaden the portfolio over time, adding more private firms, including Stripe.

According to the press release, customers can request initial public offering (IPO) shares of RVI through Robinhood at $25 per share. 

Unlike many traditional private market vehicles, RVI is structured to be available to a broad range of investors without accreditation requirements or minimum investment thresholds. The fund charges a management fee but does not impose performance fees. Its shares are expected to provide daily trading liquidity, subject to market conditions.

“Opening up private markets will resolve one of the greatest longstanding inequities in capital markets today, and we’re excited to bring these opportunities to all with Robinhood Ventures Fund I,” said Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev.

However, the move has generated skepticism about the underlying risks of indirectly investing in private companies. For crypto veterans, the structure echoes a familiar dynamic seen during the ICO boom.

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Lessons From The ICO Collapse

RVI provides retail investors with exposure to private growth companies, a segment of the market historically dominated by institutional capital. The fund is an SEC-registered, exchange-listed vehicle operating within established securities laws.

However, its underlying holdings are private companies whose valuations are based on infrequent funding rounds rather than being constantly priced by the public market. The companies’ reported value may not fully reflect changing market conditions until a new funding event forces a reassessment.

RVI is also a closed-end fund, meaning investors cannot sell their shares back at a guaranteed price. Instead, shares trade on the stock exchange, where the price can rise above or fall below the actual value of the companies the fund owns. 

As a result, investors face two layers of uncertainty: the underlying private-company valuations and the market price of the fund. The use of leverage could amplify gains but also magnify losses during market stress.

Structural risks of this nature were most visible between 2017 and 2021, during the rapid expansion of ICOs.

During that boom, retail investors gained direct access to early-stage ventures, often driven by forward-looking narratives despite uncertain valuation frameworks and liquidity timelines.

By 2018, many ICO-funded projects failed to deliver viable products or sustainable revenue models. Token prices collapsed as speculative demand faded and regulators intensified scrutiny, wiping out billions and leaving retail investors with losses.

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The episode exposed weaknesses, including limited disclosure, information asymmetry, and heavy reliance on optimistic growth assumptions. While some projects evolved into legitimate networks, the broader ICO cycle became associated with valuation excesses and uneven risk distribution.

This structure does not make RVI equivalent to an ICO, but it helps explain why comparisons have emerged.

When High Valuations Limit Upside

In both cases, retail investors can access high-growth opportunities that were once largely restricted to institutions, even as transparency around valuations and exit timelines remains limited.

The key concern raised by critics is not regulatory oversight, but risk distribution. 

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When access expands without continuous price discovery or guaranteed liquidity events, investors may face prolonged capital lock-up, sudden valuation adjustments, or exposure to elevated entry prices.

Some skeptics have also pointed to the fund’s specific composition. Several of RVI’s highlighted holdings, including Stripe, Databricks, and Revolut, have recently raised capital at valuations of $140 billion, $134 billion, and $75 billion, respectively. 

Focusing on companies already valued very highly may leave less room for strong future gains. It could also increase the risk of price declines if private-market conditions weaken.

Others contend that traditional venture capital strategies often seek earlier-stage opportunities, where valuations are lower, but growth asymmetry is higher. 

In that framing, critics shift the debate from access to timing, arguing that retail investors are entering private markets after valuations have already climbed rather than before major growth takes places.

Key points:

• Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the downside might accelerate if the $65,118 level is breached.

• Several major altcoins are attempting a recovery, but the bears remain sellers on rallies.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are attempting to hold the price above $67,000, but the bears have continued to exert pressure. A positive sign for the bulls is that select analysts believe BTC may be bottoming out.

Analyst Jelle said in a post on X that all but one of BTC’s major bottoms had formed between the 200-week simple moving average ($58,371) and the 200-week exponential moving average ($68,065). BTC trading near the 200-week EMA suggests that the bottom formation process may have begun.

Similarly, Matrixport said in a post on X that BTC may be making a durable bottom. Matrixport said that when the 21-day moving average of its daily sentiment indicator dips below zero and starts to turn up, it suggests that the selling pressure is getting exhausted. Although that doesn’t rule out a decline in the near term, the readings indicate that BTC could be approaching another inflection point.

Another positive projection for BTC came from Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon. In a note seen by CNBC, Kwon said additional savings from tax refunds, mostly from high-income consumers, could flow into equities and BTC, bringing back the “YOLO” trade.

Could BTC and the major altcoins overcome the overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC has been making higher lows in the short term, but the bulls have failed to push the price above the breakdown level of $74,508.

Buyers are likely to make another attempt to pierce the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($72,282) and the $74,508 level. If they can pull it off, the BTC/USDT pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($83,129).

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the 20-day EMA and pull the Bitcoin price below the immediate support at $65,118. If they manage to do that, the pair might tumble to solid support at $60,000.

Ether price prediction

The bulls have maintained Ether (ETH) above the immediate support at $1,897, indicating buying on dips.

Buyers will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($2,183). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair may start a stronger recovery toward the 50-day SMA ($2,707). 

Contrarily, if the Ether price turns down and breaks below $1,897, it suggests that the bears are attempting to take charge. The pair may then drop to the critical support at $1,750. Buyers are expected to protect the $1,750 level with all their might, as a close below it may sink the pair to $1,537.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($1.52), indicating that the bulls continue to exert pressure.

That improves the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA and the breakdown level of $1.61. The XRP price may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($1.80), signaling the XRP/USDT pair may remain inside the channel for some more time.

Buyers will have to thrust the price above the downtrend line to indicate a potential short-term trend change. On the contrary, a deeper fall might begin if the price turns down and plunges below the support line.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) has been trading in a narrow range for the past few days, signaling indecision between the bulls and the bears.

If the BNB price turns down and plummets below the $570 support, it indicates the resumption of the downtrend. The BNB/USDT pair may then extend the decline to the psychological level at $500.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA ($676) to suggest that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rally to $730 and subsequently to $790.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) is facing resistance near the breakdown level of $95, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.

The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the Solana price below the $76 support. If they manage to do that, it suggests that the bears have flipped the $95 level into resistance. The pair may then retest the Feb. 6 low of $67.

Buyers will have to overcome the $95 overhead hurdle to signal a comeback. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair may ascend to the 50-day SMA ($116), where the sellers are expected to mount a strong defense. 

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($0.10), indicating a lack of selling at lower levels.

That increases the likelihood of a rally above the 20-day EMA. The DOGE/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.12). Sellers will attempt to halt the recovery at the $0.12 level, but if the bulls overcome the resistance, the Dogecoin price may soar to the $0.16 level.

Instead, if the price turns down from the $0.12 resistance, it suggests a possible range formation in the near term. The pair might swing between $0.08 and $0.12 for a few days.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been stuck between the moving averages, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($547) and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest a possible upside breakout. If that happens, the Bitcoin Cash price might rally to $600 and, after that, to $630.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bears have overpowered the bulls. That might start a correction toward the next support at $500.

Related: 4 data points suggest XRP price bottomed at $1.12: Are bulls ready to take over?

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) closed below the 20-day EMA ($30.26) on Tuesday, indicating selling at higher levels.

Buyers will attempt to maintain the Hyperliquid price above the 50-day SMA ($27.74), but if the bears prevail, the HYPE/USDT pair may tumble toward the solid support at $20.82. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a range-bound action between $20.82 and $35.50 for some time.

The first sign of strength for the bulls is a close above the $32.50 level. That opens the doors for a rally to the $35.50 to $38.42 resistance zone.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.29), indicating that the bulls have kept up the pressure.

The possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA remains high. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair may climb toward the downtrend line, which is expected to act as a stiff resistance. If buyers pierce the downtrend line, the Cardano price may rally to $0.44 and then to $0.50.

Sellers will have to tug the price below the support line to regain control. If they manage to do that, the pair might slump toward $0.15.

Monero price prediction

Monero (XMR) remains below the breakdown level of $360, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to slip below the immediate support at $309.

Buyers will have to thrust the Monero price above the 20-day EMA ($366) to gain the upper hand. The XMR/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($449), where the bears are expected to step in.

On the downside, a break and close below the $309 level indicates that the bears remain in control. The pair may then retest the crucial $276 support. A strong rebound off the $276 level might result in a range-bound action for a few days.