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Saylor’s Bitcoin machine faces a test

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Strategy breaks four-year Bitcoin buying streak with surprise sale

A preferred stock that was supposed to behave like a steady, high-yield bond fell to 82 cents on the dollar in a single session. The issuer says it was a leverage flush, not a credit problem. Either way, the new world of Bitcoin-backed “digital credit” just met its first stress test.

Summary

  • STRC and SATA showed that Bitcoin-backed preferred stocks can trade violently under stress.
  • Issuers blamed the selloff on forced deleveraging, not credit deterioration.
  • The episode exposed thin liquidity, leverage, and Bitcoin volatility inside digital credit.
  • High yields in these products compensate investors for risks that are now visible.

On June 18, 2026, a security that was designed to be boring did something deeply un-boring. STRC, the perpetual preferred stock issued by Michael Saylor’s company Strategy, the firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, fell to an intraday low of $82.50, far below the roughly $100 par value such an instrument is meant to trade near, before recovering to close around $88.59.

On the same day, a sister instrument called SATA, the preferred stock of a Bitcoin treasury company called Strive, tumbled from its $100 par into the low $90s. Strive’s chief executive, Matt Cole, called it “the most difficult day in the history of Digital Credit,” and was quick to insist that nothing was actually wrong.

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No one had defaulted, no issuer’s fundamentals had deteriorated, and the damage was the result of a leverage-driven liquidation, a cascade of margin calls and forced selling, not a real credit event. Whether you believe that reassurance or not, something important happened: the new world of Bitcoin-backed “digital credit” met its first real stress test, and it wobbled.

This piece explains what STRC and SATA actually are and why they exist, what happened on that difficult Thursday and the leverage-liquidation explanation, why these instruments are more fragile than their steady-yield design suggests, what the episode reveals about the broader Bitcoin treasury model that Saylor pioneered and others have copied, and what it means for anyone watching this corner of the market.

The issuers’ reassurance may well be accurate, that this was a mechanical dislocation and not a sign of distress. But the episode is a window into a young, leveraged, thinly traded market built on top of Bitcoin’s volatility, and understanding its first stress test is understanding a risk that has been building quietly beneath the Bitcoin treasury boom.

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What STRC and SATA actually are

To understand why the selloff matters, you have to understand these instruments, because they are a new kind of security and their design explains both their appeal and their fragility.

STRC and SATA are perpetual preferred stocks issued by Bitcoin treasury companies, and they sit at the intersection of two worlds: the steady, income-paying world of preferred equity and the volatile world of corporate Bitcoin accumulation. A perpetual preferred stock is a security that pays a fixed or variable dividend indefinitely, with no maturity date, and is meant to behave somewhat like a high-yield bond, trading near its par value and delivering a steady stream of income.

STRC, issued by Strategy, yields roughly 11.5% and pays dividends twice a month. SATA, issued by Strive, offers a variable yield of around 13% and pays dividends every business day, a remarkably frequent payout designed to make the instrument attractive to income-seeking investors.

Both are designed to trade near their $100 par and to throw off generous, regular income, which is why they appeal to investors hunting for yield.

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Strategy has also moved STRC toward semi-monthly dividends, reinforcing the product’s pitch as a frequent-income instrument. The first record date for the new schedule is June 30.

The crucial detail is what backs them and what they fund. These preferred stocks are issued by companies whose core strategy is accumulating Bitcoin, and the capital raised by selling the preferred shares helps finance that Bitcoin accumulation.

This is corporate Bitcoin treasuries explained through a credit instrument rather than a normal stock filing. The company raises capital, links the balance sheet to Bitcoin, and then asks public-market investors to tolerate the volatility inside a familiar wrapper.

This is the model Strategy pioneered and that companies like Strive have adopted: raise money through instruments like preferred stock and convertible debt, use it to buy Bitcoin, and amplify Bitcoin exposure through this financial structure, what Strive’s leadership calls an “amplification” strategy. Strive, for instance, has built its structure around preferred equity as the primary form of this amplification, holding roughly 13,000 Bitcoin and maintaining a multi-month dividend reserve to ensure it can keep paying.

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These instruments, in other words, are a way for Bitcoin treasury companies to raise capital from yield-seeking investors and channel it into Bitcoin, offering the investors a high income stream in exchange. They are the credit layer of the Bitcoin treasury world, a new market that links steady income products to volatile Bitcoin balance sheets, and that linkage is exactly where the fragility lives.

What happened on the difficult Thursday

The events of June 18 are worth walking through carefully, because the sequence reveals how a security meant to be stable can crater in a single session.

These instruments, which are supposed to trade near their $100 par, dropped sharply and suddenly. STRC fell to an intraday low of $82.50, a steep discount to par for an instrument designed to behave like a steady bond, before recovering to close near $88.59.

SATA fell from par into the low $90s, with one company executive noting it touched as low as $92.88 intraday before recovering toward $97.71. Both instruments, in other words, suffered sharp intraday plunges and then partially recovered, the kind of violent round trip that does not happen to a truly stable income security in normal conditions.

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Selling came on heavy volume and cascaded through these thinly traded instruments, and it happened as the broader market was weak. Bitcoin itself slid around the same time toward roughly $62,900, and the United States was heading into a holiday weekend with no equity trading the following day.

Strive’s chief executive offered an explanation that same day, and it is important to take it seriously while also weighing it critically. Matt Cole attributed the plunge not to any deterioration in the creditworthiness of the issuers but to a leverage-driven liquidation.

In plain terms, some investors had bought these preferred shares using borrowed money, posting the shares as collateral, and when prices started to fall, those investors got margin calls. That forced them to sell, which pushed prices down further, triggering more margin calls in a cascade.

This is a mechanical dynamic, a leverage flush, not a fundamental one, and Cole stressed that the issuers’ balance sheets were intact, their dividend reserves full, and their ability to keep paying undisturbed. Strategy has also framed its reserve position as more than sufficient to support dividends over the long term.

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Cole characterized the selloff as a temporary market dislocation, the most difficult day in the young history of digital credit, but not a sign of financial distress. The partial recovery of both instruments by the close lends some support to this reading, since a true credit event would not typically bounce back within the session.

The leverage-liquidation explanation is plausible and may well be correct. But as the next section argues, it is also not entirely reassuring.

Why these instruments are more fragile than they look

Here is the heart of the matter, because even if the leverage-liquidation explanation is accurate, the episode exposes a fragility built into these instruments that their steady-yield design obscures.

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That reassurance, “it was just a leverage liquidation, not a credit problem,” is meant to calm investors, but it contains its own warning. Their ability to fall nearly 20% in a session on forced selling, regardless of the issuer’s fundamentals, is itself the risk.

An instrument designed to trade near par and behave like a steady bond should not be capable of a violent intraday plunge to $82.50. The fact that it is reveals that these securities are thinly traded and vulnerable to becoming magnets for exactly the kind of leverage that can flush them.

A market thin enough that a wave of margin-called selling can crater the price is a market where holders face real price risk even when nothing is wrong with the issuer. That is not the risk profile yield-seeking investors expect from a bond-like preferred.

That explanation, in other words, identifies the mechanism but does not eliminate the danger. It confirms that these instruments live in a market where mechanical forces can produce sudden, large losses.

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A deeper fragility comes from what sits underneath these instruments: Bitcoin. These issuers are Bitcoin treasury companies whose balance sheets rise and fall with Bitcoin’s price, and although the preferred dividends are backed by reserves, the entire structure is ultimately tied to Bitcoin’s volatile value.

When Bitcoin falls, as it has substantially in 2026, the issuers’ balance sheets weaken, the broader sentiment around Bitcoin treasury strategies sours, and the appetite for their leveraged income instruments can fade. All of those pressures can hit the preferred shares at the same time.

This is the Bitcoin downturn behind the stress: a weaker Bitcoin market does not just affect the spot price, it tests every structure built on top of Bitcoin exposure.

They combine three sources of fragility at once: thin liquidity that amplifies any selling, leverage that can cascade into forced liquidations, and an underlying tie to Bitcoin’s volatility. A steady-yield preferred stock is supposed to be insulated from this kind of drama.

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The design of STRC and SATA, perpetual preferreds throwing off generous regular income, presents them as stable, income-producing securities. The episode showed that beneath that steady surface lies a young, leveraged, Bitcoin-linked market that can move violently, and that is a fragility the high yields are, in part, compensation for.

What it reveals about the Bitcoin treasury model

The STRC and SATA episode is a window into something larger than two instruments: the Bitcoin treasury model itself, pioneered by Saylor’s Strategy and now widely copied, and the stresses building within it.

This model is, at its core, a leverage play on Bitcoin. Companies like Strategy raise capital through debt and preferred equity and use it to buy Bitcoin, amplifying their Bitcoin exposure so that the company’s value rises faster than Bitcoin when Bitcoin climbs.

Strategy’s goal has been to turn products like STRC into durable Bitcoin-backed credit instruments, not just temporary financing tools. That ambition is what makes the stress test matter: the market is now testing whether the instrument can behave like credit when Bitcoin behaves like Bitcoin.

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The strategy made Strategy a market sensation during Bitcoin’s bull runs. Strategy now holds an enormous Bitcoin position, around 846,842 Bitcoin acquired at an average cost of roughly $75,656 per coin, which at a Bitcoin price near $62,500 represents a large unrealized loss, on the order of $11 billion.

That is the other side of leverage: it amplifies losses as well as gains. In 2026, with Bitcoin down sharply on the year, the amplification has been working in reverse, putting the model under a kind of pressure it did not face during the bull market.

The preferred instruments like STRC are part of how this leverage is financed, which is why stress in them is a signal about stress in the model.

The episode is best understood as the model meeting its first real test in a sustained Bitcoin downturn. During Bitcoin’s rises, the Bitcoin treasury strategy looked brilliant, and instruments like STRC and SATA could be issued readily to fund more Bitcoin buying, with investors happy to collect high yields backed by appreciating Bitcoin balance sheets.

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A prolonged Bitcoin decline changes the picture: balance sheets show large unrealized losses, recent capital raises draw criticism as dilutive, sentiment sours, and the leveraged income instruments become vulnerable to exactly the kind of flush that hit them. This is also the macro pressure on leverage, because a hawkish rate environment makes every leveraged product harder to support.

Both companies insist their structures are conservatively leveraged or debt-light and their reserves intact, and that may be true, with Strategy and Strive both characterizing their balance sheets as sound. But the episode reveals that the whole edifice, the treasury companies and the digital-credit instruments built on top of them, is being tested by Bitcoin’s downturn in a way it never was during the boom.

The cracks in STRC and SATA are an early reading on how that test is going. The model worked beautifully on the way up; its behavior on the way down is now being discovered in real time.

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The honest counterpoint

A fair account has to take the issuers’ reassurance seriously, because there is a real case that this episode was exactly what they say it was and not a sign of deeper trouble.

A bullish reading is that this was a real leverage flush, a mechanical dislocation in a thin market, and not a fundamental problem. On this view, the issuers’ balance sheets really are intact, their dividend reserves really are full, and their ability to keep paying really is undisturbed.

The sharp drop was a temporary technical event caused by overleveraged investors being forced out, not a judgment on the creditworthiness of Strategy or Strive. Partial recovery within the same session supports this, since a real credit deterioration would not typically bounce back so quickly.

The high yields these instruments pay, 11.5% on STRC and around 13% on SATA, are attractive precisely because they compensate for the volatility that episodes like this represent. Strive maintains a multi-month dividend reserve and has characterized its structure as built on long-duration preferred equity matched to the long-duration nature of Bitcoin.

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That is an argument that the financing is sensibly structured, not recklessly leveraged. For an investor who believes in the Bitcoin treasury model and can tolerate volatility, a forced-selling dip might even look like an opportunity, not a warning.

A bearish reading does not dispute the mechanics but questions the comfort. Even granting that this was a leverage liquidation and not a credit event, the episode shows that these instruments can lose a fifth of their value in a session, that the market for them is thin enough to cascade, and that they are tied to a Bitcoin treasury model under real pressure from Bitcoin’s decline.

That reassurance, “nothing is fundamentally wrong,” sits uneasily next to the fact that a supposedly stable income security behaved like a volatile one. The worry is that in a young, leveraged, thinly traded market, the line between a mechanical flush and a fundamental problem can blur if Bitcoin keeps falling and the stress compounds.

Both readings have merit, and the honest position is that the issuers may be entirely right about this specific episode while the episode still reveals a fragility worth respecting. These instruments offer high yields for a reason, and that reason was on display on June 18, whatever the precise cause.

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An investor should weigh the generous income against the proven capacity for sudden, sharp losses, and decide accordingly.

What it means for investors

For anyone watching or holding these instruments, or the Bitcoin treasury companies behind them, the episode offers concrete lessons regardless of which reading proves correct.

One lesson is that high-yield Bitcoin-linked preferred stocks are not the stable, bond-like income securities their design might suggest. Those generous yields, 11.5% and 13%, are compensation for real risks, including thin liquidity, leverage cascades, and an underlying tie to Bitcoin’s volatility.

An investor attracted by the income should understand that it comes with the proven possibility of sharp price drops. Treating these instruments as equivalent to a safe bond, because they are called preferred stock and pay steady dividends, misreads them.

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They are a higher-risk, higher-yield instrument in a young and volatile market, and the June episode is the evidence. Anyone holding them for income should size the position to the reality that the price can move violently and that the market is thin, not to the comforting impression of a steady payout.

Another lesson is about the broader Bitcoin treasury exposure. The episode is a reminder that the Bitcoin treasury model is a leverage play that amplifies losses in a downturn as much as gains in a rally, and that the instruments financing it, and the companies issuing them, carry that amplified risk.

An investor exposed to this corner of the market, whether through the preferred instruments, the treasury companies’ shares, or the broader theme, should hold it understanding that it is leveraged Bitcoin exposure with extra layers of fragility, not a conservative income or equity position. That is why regulated Bitcoin exposure compared is important: a preferred stock tied to a Bitcoin treasury balance sheet is not the same risk as a spot ETF or a simple Bitcoin wrapper.

The broader product-design trend also matters. STRC and SATA are part of the same market impulse that produced another Bitcoin-financial-engineering product, but the risk profile is very different when leverage and dividend obligations sit inside the wrapper.

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Watching Bitcoin’s price, the issuers’ balance sheets and dividend coverage, and the behavior of these instruments under stress gives a clearer read on the risk than the steady-yield marketing suggests. None of this is investment advice, and the issuers may be right that the specific episode was benign.

The prudent stance is to respect the fragility the episode revealed and to treat these instruments and the model behind them as the leveraged, volatile, Bitcoin-tied bets they fundamentally are.

A stress test, passed for now

STRC falling to $82.50 and SATA into the low $90s in a single session was, by the issuers’ account, a leverage flush rather than a credit event, and the partial recovery by the close lends that explanation real support.

The companies insist their balance sheets are intact, their reserves full, and their ability to pay undisturbed, and they may be entirely correct that this specific episode was a mechanical dislocation in a thin market and not a sign of distress. In that narrow sense, the Bitcoin dividend machine passed its first stress test: it shook, but it did not break.

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But the episode revealed a fragility that the reassurance does not dissolve. Instruments designed to trade near par and behave like steady bonds showed they can lose nearly a fifth of their value in a session.

The market for them is thin enough to cascade under forced selling, and they sit on top of a Bitcoin treasury model now under real pressure from Bitcoin’s decline, with Strategy carrying billions in unrealized losses as leverage works in reverse. The high yields these instruments pay are compensation for exactly this kind of volatility, and June 18 was a vivid display of what that compensation is for.

An honest conclusion holds both truths at once: the issuers are probably right about this episode, and the episode still exposed a young, leveraged, Bitcoin-linked credit market that can move violently and that is being tested in a downturn for the first time. The machine kept running, but it was the first real test.

How it behaves through a sustained Bitcoin decline is a question now being answered in real time, one difficult Thursday at a time.

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Frequently asked questions

What are STRC and SATA?

They are perpetual preferred stocks issued by Bitcoin treasury companies. STRC, issued by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, yields roughly 11.5% and pays dividends twice a month. SATA, issued by Strive, offers a variable yield around 13% with daily dividend payments. Both are designed to trade near their $100 par and provide steady high income, and both help finance the issuers’ Bitcoin accumulation. They form a new “digital credit” layer linking income products to volatile Bitcoin balance sheets.

What happened to STRC and SATA on June 18, 2026?

Both fell sharply in a single session. STRC dropped to an intraday low of $82.50, well below its roughly $100 par, before recovering to about $88.59. SATA fell from par into the low $90s before partially recovering. Selling came on heavy volume and cascaded through these thinly traded instruments as Bitcoin slid toward roughly $62,900. Strive’s CEO called it “the most difficult day in the history of Digital Credit,” attributing it to forced selling, not a credit problem.

What does leverage liquidation, not a credit event, mean?

It means the plunge was caused by mechanical forced selling rather than any deterioration in the issuers’ creditworthiness. Some investors had bought the preferred shares with borrowed money, posting them as collateral; when prices fell, they got margin calls, forcing them to sell, which pushed prices down further and triggered more margin calls in a cascade. The issuers say their balance sheets and dividend reserves are intact. The partial same-session recovery supports this reading, since a true credit event would not typically bounce back so fast.

Why are these instruments considered fragile?

Even if June 18 was a leverage flush, the episode showed these instruments can lose nearly 20% in a session, which a truly stable bond-like security should not do. They combine three fragilities: thin liquidity that amplifies selling, leverage that can cascade into forced liquidations, and an underlying tie to Bitcoin’s volatility through the issuers’ balance sheets. The high yields they pay are compensation for exactly these risks, which their steady-income design tends to obscure.

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What does this say about the Bitcoin treasury model?

The Bitcoin treasury model, pioneered by Strategy and copied by others, raises capital through debt and preferred equity to buy Bitcoin, amplifying exposure. That leverage amplifies losses as well as gains, and with Bitcoin down sharply in 2026, Strategy carries a large unrealized loss, around $11 billion on roughly 846,842 BTC bought near a $75,656 average. The STRC and SATA stress is an early sign of the whole model being tested in a sustained Bitcoin downturn for the first time, after looking brilliant during the boom.

Should investors treat these as safe income securities?

No. Despite being called preferred stock and paying steady dividends, they are higher-risk, higher-yield instruments in a young, leveraged, thinly traded market tied to Bitcoin’s volatility. The June episode showed they can drop sharply and suddenly. The 11.5% and 13% yields are compensation for that risk. Investors attracted by the income should size positions to the reality that prices can move violently, rather than to the impression of a stable payout. This is not investment advice.

As of June 21, 2026. Markets move quickly and figures change; verify current data before relying on this analysis. This article is information, not investment advice.

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Crypto News, July 31: July Round Up, Kospi Coming Back, Bitcoin Price Ignores Political Noise as Market Splits

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The Kospi ended July with a powerful rebound, while the Bitcoin price stayed remarkably steady despite several major headlines. We watched the Kospi recover sharply as the Bitcoin hovered near $64,300, showing little interest in politics, stock market swings, or a major crypto security breach.

July closed with markets moving in different directions. South Korean equities staged an impressive comeback, while crypto traders chased memecoins and tokenized assets instead of pushing Bitcoin higher. Even so, Bitcoin continued trading within a familiar range, reflecting patience.

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Bitcoin Price Stays Calm After Hardware Wallet Exploit

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A major security incident became one of Friday’s biggest crypto stories. An attacker exploited a flaw affecting older Coldcard Mk3 hardware wallets, draining 594 BTC from around 500 single-signature wallets in less than 30 minutes.

The vulnerability reportedly traced back to firmware version 4.0.1, where a weakness in random number generation made some wallet seeds predictable. Many affected wallets had remained untouched for years before the coordinated theft unfolded across three blockchain blocks.

Wallet maker Coinkite confirmed the issue and said its early investigation indicates newer Mk4, Q, and Mk5 devices are not affected. Users who protected their wallets with a BIP 39 passphrase also appear to face significantly lower risk. Despite the scale of the exploit, the Bitcoin price barely reacted as it remained close to $64,300 after briefly testing $65,300 during Asian trading before retreating.

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Meanwhile, Ethereum hovers around $1,900 while BNB is held near $590, outperforming many large-cap cryptocurrencies. Activity remained concentrated in smaller speculative assets instead of flowing into Bitcoin.

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Kospi Recovery Highlights Growing Market Divergence

The Kospi delivered one of Asia’s strongest performances after recovering sharply from its recent correction. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix helped drive the rally as semiconductor stocks attracted renewed buying following weeks of heavy selling pressure.

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Taiwan Semiconductor also posted strong gains, reinforcing optimism across regional technology stocks. However, the Bitcoin price has yet to mirror the equity rebound as closely as it had earlier this month, highlighting a growing disconnect between traditional markets and digital assets.

Instead, speculative capital flowed into selected crypto sectors. Uniswap extended its rally after expanding its fee switch across additional blockchain networks, while several low float tokens recorded triple-digit percentage gains following fresh exchange listings.

South Korean regulators also remained active despite legislative delays. Officials continued discussing interim stablecoin regulations, reflecting the country’s ongoing effort to strengthen oversight while digital asset adoption continues expanding.

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The contrast between equities and crypto defined the final trading session of July. While the Kospi recovered with remarkable speed, Bitcoin stayed disciplined and largely ignored both political headlines and market excitement.

That resilience may prove more important than short-term volatility. Security breaches, regulatory developments, and speculative rallies continue to dominate daily headlines, yet Bitcoin has repeatedly shown an ability to absorb negative news without breaking below key support levels.

As August begins, investors will watch whether the Kospi can sustain its recovery and whether the Bitcoin Price finally breaks out of its prolonged trading range. For now, patience remains the dominant theme across both markets.

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XRP Price Set for Institutional Boost? Evernorth Files $1B SEC Amendment

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XRP price prediction is getting bullish as Ripple backed Evernorth amended its SEC registration statement again. The real question is whether the market has already priced it in.

Evernorth’s latest amended Form S-4 formalizes employment agreements for three senior executives. They include chief legal officer Jessica Jonas, chief business officer Sagar Shah, and chief operating officer Meg Nakamura. Jonas would receive an initial equity award worth about $4.5 million. Shah and Nakamura would each receive roughly $2.8 million, pending shareholder approval.

The filing also follows previously disclosed compensation for CEO Asheesh Birla and CFO Matt Frymier. Birla’s equity award remains valued at about $44 million. Together, these incentive packages fall under Evernorth’s 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan. Locking in the executive team with equity suggests the transaction continues moving forward.

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At the center of Evernorth’s strategy is its planned Nasdaq listing under the XRPN ticker. The company also aims to build a $1 billion XRP treasury, targeting roughly 473 million XRP, or about 0.8% of the token’s circulating supply. If completed, that allocation would remove a meaningful amount of XRP from the open market, strengthening the long-term supply reduction narrative.

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XRP Price Prediction: Recover Toward $1.65 as Evernorth Filing Advances?

XRP is trading around $1.06, still well below Evernorth’s implied cost basis of about $2.44. That gap cuts both ways. It leaves institutional exposure underwater while supporting the case for continued accumulation. Meanwhile, XRP has traded in a relatively tight range as market sentiment remains cautious.

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Technically, the original support levels are no longer relevant after XRP’s recent decline. Immediate support now sits near $1.00, while a break below that could expose the $0.85 to $0.90 area. On the upside, reclaiming $1.10 would improve momentum, with $1.14 to $1.15 acting as the next resistance zone.

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The bull case remains unchanged. If XRPN lists on Nasdaq, the SEC clears the S-4 filing, and Evernorth completes its XRP treasury strategy, supply could tighten over time. That would support long term price targets around $2.80, while more aggressive forecasts extend much higher.

The base case assumes filing progress continues but the timeline slips. In that scenario, XRP may consolidate between $1.00 and $1.15 before a stronger catalyst appears. On the bearish side, SEC delays, weaker macro conditions, or a decisive break below $1.00 could open the door to prices under $0.90.

Institutional XRP price targets have been building for months, but the Evernorth catalyst stands apart. It would operate through a regulated U.S. securities vehicle, potentially making it easier for compliant institutional capital to gain exposure if the plan moves ahead.

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LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels

XRP’s institutional thesis is compelling, but at current prices, the upside to even the conservative $2.80 target requires patience and tolerance for a -$0.98 invalidation sitting only 9% below spot.

For traders already holding XRP, that’s a known risk. For capital looking to size into a higher-beta opportunity with a structurally different value proposition, the early-stage infrastructure layer is where asymmetry tends to live.

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LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project built around a single thesis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity should not require bridging, wrapping, or fragmented execution environments. Its Unified Liquidity Layer fuses all three ecosystems into a single execution environment. So developers deploy once and access all.

The presale is currently priced at $0.01485, with $926K raised to date. Core architecture features include Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and a Deploy-Once build model that eliminates multi-chain deployment overhead. The cross-chain fragmentation problem it targets is real and structurally persistent.

Research LiquidChain here.

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AMLBot Launches AI Tracer for Cross-Chain Crypto Tracking

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AMLBot Launches AI Tracer for Cross-Chain Crypto Tracking

Crypto forensics and compliance company AMLBot has launched its AI Tracer, described as a self-service blockchain analysis tool that maps visible fund movements from a transaction hash across blockchain networks.

AMLBot said the tool aims to address the current need for specialist software and knowledge to trace transactions. The company said the tool also traces through bridges that move assets cross-chain or when the assets are split among multiple wallets.

“The process is automatic: the AI traverses the transaction graph, follows the movement of funds from the starting address through intermediate wallets toward whatever endpoint the money reached, and matches known entity labels — exchanges, services, flagged addresses — against every wallet it encounters,” the company said in a press release shared with Cointelegraph.

According to the announcement, AI Tracer cannot see transfers between internal exchange accounts, determine why a payment was made, freeze assets or guarantee recovery. Its reports are intended as a starting point for investigations and do not replace an audit or legal process.

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The tool offers a free check and offers paid plans with higher limits on the number of automated checks. Currently supported networks include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, TRON, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Ethereum Classic, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Solana, Cardano and Ripple.

AMLBot said the tool is suitable for journalists, researchers, traders, and crypto user who want to read transaction paths, as well as law enforcement agents investigating crypto crime and independent investigators or compliance teams.

Related: AMLBot says social engineering drove 65% of crypto cases it probed in 2025

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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U.S. sanctions Iran-linked bitcoin insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz ships

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BTC falls back to $76,000 as Iran reportedly shuts Hormuz again

At the time the platform’s website showed only a landing page, and CoinDesk could not verify whether it was operational or whether any cargo owners had used it. Fars claimed at the time the model could generate more than $10 billion without explaining how it arrived at that figure.

The policies were approved by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an IRGC-backed body Treasury designated in May. Both firms were sanctioned under an executive order covering Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors.

Designation means U.S. persons are barred from dealing with the two companies, and foreign firms that transact with them risk sanctions themselves. Payments in bitcoin carry the same exposure as payments through banks.

“With its economy in freefall and inflation in the triple digits, the regime is desperate for cash,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in the statement.

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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and traffic through it has thinned during weeks of U.S. strikes on Iran that have kept oil prices elevated.

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AMLBot Rolls Out AI Tracer to Enable Self-Serve Blockchain Probes

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AMLBot, a crypto compliance and forensics company, has introduced AI Tracer—an automated, self-service blockchain analysis tool that follows the trail of funds from a given transaction hash across multiple networks.

The company positions AI Tracer as a way to reduce the reliance on specialist tracing software and deep internal expertise, enabling users to map visible movement on-chain from a starting transaction through intermediate wallets to the eventual endpoint.

Key takeaways

  • AI Tracer is built to trace fund movements from a transaction hash across supported blockchains.
  • It can follow cross-chain transfers through bridges and handle flows where assets are split across multiple wallets.
  • Reports rely on matching known entity labels (such as exchanges and flagged addresses) but are not a substitute for legal or audit processes.
  • The tool offers free checks and paid plans with higher limits on the number of automated analyses.
  • Initial support covers major networks including Bitcoin, Ethereum (and several L2s), Solana, TRON, and Ripple.

How AI Tracer maps transaction paths

In a press release provided to Cointelegraph, AMLBot described AI Tracer as “self-service” analysis that automatically traverses a transaction graph. The stated workflow follows funds from the starting address, through intermediate wallets, and toward whatever endpoint the assets reached.

A key part of the system is entity labeling: AMLBot says the tool matches known labels—such as exchanges, services, and flagged addresses—against wallets encountered during tracing.

This matters for investigators and compliance teams because manual graph reconstruction across complex transaction histories can be time-consuming, especially when transfers involve many hops, multiple wallets, or routing patterns typical of illicit movement attempts.

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What the tool can’t do

AMLBot also emphasized limits that users should understand before relying on outputs. According to the announcement, AI Tracer cannot:

  • See transfers occurring between internal exchange accounts.
  • Determine the reason a payment was made.
  • Freeze assets.
  • Guarantee recovery of funds.

The company further noted that AI Tracer reports are intended as a starting point for investigations and do not replace audit procedures or legal processes. That framing is important in practice: blockchain tracing can reveal address-to-address movement, but it cannot by itself establish intent, contract context, or operational control over funds.

Cross-chain tracing and split flows

AMLBot said AI Tracer is designed to trace through bridges used to move assets cross-chain, as well as situations where assets are split among multiple wallets. These are two areas where transaction tracing often becomes harder than a simple “send and receive” pattern.

Cross-chain movement can obscure the path of value when assets are wrapped, bridged, or reconstituted on a different network. Meanwhile, split flows can require tracking multiple branches of a transaction graph to understand where value ultimately consolidated. By explicitly calling out these scenarios, AMLBot suggests AI Tracer is meant to handle more realistic transaction structures rather than only single-line transfers.

Coverage, access model, and who it’s for

AMLBot’s announcement says AI Tracer currently supports these networks: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, TRON, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Ethereum Classic, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Solana, Cardano, and Ripple.

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The tool includes a free check, while paid plans provide higher limits on the number of automated analyses users can run. AMLBot described the product as suitable for a range of users, including journalists, researchers, traders, and crypto users who want to read transaction paths, as well as law enforcement and independent investigators or compliance teams.

That target audience reflects a broader trend in the industry: as regulators, exchanges, and institutional participants increase expectations around transaction monitoring and provenance checks, more tools are being built to make on-chain analysis accessible beyond specialized forensics teams.

Why the launch is timely for on-chain investigations

AI Tracer’s “from transaction hash to endpoints” approach addresses a practical bottleneck in crypto investigations—turning raw blockchain data into a readable path that can be acted on. While it still cannot explain intent or replace legal review, AMLBot’s positioning suggests it is designed to speed up early-stage work: triage, mapping routes, and narrowing down where further diligence should focus.

As cross-chain activity and multi-hop transaction structures become more common, users are likely to judge tools less on whether they can follow basic transfers and more on how well they handle routing complexity—particularly bridge interactions and wallet splits, both of which AI Tracer is explicitly meant to cover.

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Going forward, the main questions for users will be how consistently AI Tracer’s entity labeling reduces ambiguity across different networks, and how the product’s limits and supported chains expand over time—especially as investigations increasingly span L2s, bridges, and liquidity-driven flows.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Price Tumbles to 2-Week Low as Fed and BoJ Keep Rates Unchanged: Weekly Crypto Recap

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It was a very eventful week in terms of economic activity, with most of the focus turned to the Wednesday conclusion of the second FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

But before we head into the details of the central bank’s decision, let’s explore what transpired prior to that. Last week, the US CPI numbers came out, and inflation data was actually a lot better than many expected. BTC went on a rally after that, peaking at $67,000, where it was rejected but still managed to close the week at around $64,000.

It regained some traction on Monday after the de-escalation news on the Middle East front. The cryptocurrency jumped past $65,000 and touched $65,600 on a couple of occasions. However, the predominantly bearish sentiment was too strong, and the asset dumped below $63,000 a day later.

The bulls managed to intervene and didn’t allow another immediate leg down. Instead, BTC started to regain traction after the United States Federal Reserve kept the rates unchanged. The asset challenged $65,500 once again on Friday morning. However, a familiar end-of-the-week scenario repeated, and the cryptocurrency was rejected even after the Bank of Japan followed the Fed’s example and maintained the rates.

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The subsequent leg down has been quite painful, with BTC sliding below $62,500 minutes ago for the first time in over two weeks. Some altcoins have it even worse, with RAIN plummeting by double digits, while ZEC, XLM, and HYPE are down by up to 8%.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly July 31. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly July 31. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $2.275T | 24H Vol: $60B | BTC Dominance: 55.3%

BTC: $62,700 (-0.5%) | ETH: $1,858 (+1.7%) | XRP: $1.06 (-1.7%)

New York Sues Kalshi as Legal Pressure on Prediction Markets Intensifies. In a major development from earlier today, New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Leticia James filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, arguing that it operates illegal gambling products without the proper license in the state.

A Rocky Year: Ethereum Turns 11 Years as ETH Trades 61% Below the High Set Last August. Ethereum celebrated its 11th birthday on July 30. In this article, we explore the good and bad over the past few years, including some controversial developments around the blockchain and the foundation behind it.

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Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst. US Midterm election years are not favorable for bitcoin historically. One analyst claimed that once they are over, BTC’s major rally could finally commence. Another analyst outlined a major price prediction, indicating that the cryptocurrency can peak at somewhere around $400,000 per unit within less than two years.

‘OC’ Actor Ben McKenzie Urges Congress to Block CLARITY Act Over Trump Ties. The CLARITY Act remains one of the most discussed topics within the cryptocurrency community and in Washington. In a surprising development from the past week, OC actor Ben McKenzie argued that the bill should be blocked over its potential aid to Trump and his family.

Circle’s IBM Patent Deal Brings Nearly 1,000 Blockchain Patents. The company behind the second-largest stablecoin said it had expanded its blockchain patent portfolio by purchasing nearly 1,000 such patents from IBM. This includes more than 680 patent families and nearly 1,000 issued worldwide, covering core blockchain tech, banking, financial services, and insurance.

Saylor’s Strategy Keeps Rebuilding Its Cash Pile, Putting Bitcoin Buys on Hold. The world’s largest corporate holder of BTC has continued its BTC purchase pause for a fifth consecutive week. Instead, Strategy keeps growing its USD reserve. Another $525 million injection brought the total USD stash to $3.75 billion, enough to cover 2.1 years of dividend payments.

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This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid – click here for the complete price analysis.

The post Bitcoin Price Tumbles to 2-Week Low as Fed and BoJ Keep Rates Unchanged: Weekly Crypto Recap appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Circle secures New York trust charter as crypto regulatory push accelerates

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Circle secures New York trust charter as crypto regulatory push accelerates

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL), the issuer of USDC, the world’s second-largest stablecoin, announced Friday that it secured a limited purpose trust charter from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).

The trust charter is an official state banking authorization that allows the holder to legally provide fiduciary, custody and asset-management services under the New York Banking Law.

“Earning a New York trust charter has been a longstanding objective for Circle given the regulatory clarity that comes with it,” said Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Circle.

Circle’s stock price remains flat Friday morning at $64.24 and its stablecoin USDC has a market capitalization exceeding $71.8 billion.

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Earlier this month, Circle received approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank.

National trust banks are authorized to provide users with custody and fiduciary services but do not accept consumer deposits or make loans like traditional commercial banks.

The stablecoin issuer said the national bank would “enhance the safety and regulatory oversight of the USDC Reserve, while enabling Circle to offer fiduciary digital asset custody and related services to institutional customers.”

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What Jean Grey's Debut in Spider-Man: Brand New Day Means for the Future of the X-Men in the MCU

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What Jean Grey's Debut in Spider-Man: Brand New Day Means for the Future of the X-Men in the MCU
Sadie Sink as Jean Grey in Spider-Man: Brand New Day —Sony

Warning: Spoilers ahead for Spider-Man: Brand New Day

The Dark Phoenix will rise again. Probably. Eventually. 

A new version of Jean Grey made her debut in Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Stranger Things’ Sadie Sink follows in the footsteps of Famke Janssen and Sophie Turner as the redheaded telepath who is arguably the most powerful mutant in the Marvel comics. But the Jean that Peter Parker (Tom Holland) meets is just a lonely teenager who can’t fully control her powers. She presumably won’t learn how until she meets Professor Charles Xavier and the other mutants at his school. Those X-Men are coming to the Marvel Cinematic Universe with a new cast in the iconic roles. It’s just going to take a few more years.

Disney acquired 21st Century Fox way back in 2019, and Marvel fans have been waiting ever since for Magneto, Storm, and Cyclops fighting alongside the Avengers. There have been hints of what is to come: Ms. Marvel carries the X-gene, the fabled marker of a mutant. And the Deadpool & Wolverine movie was the first X-Men movie set inside the MCU. But Marvel Studios head Kevin Feige has long promised something more deliberate, a dedicated series of X-Men movies and a “reset” of the stories that came before.

Jean appears to be the first character in that reset, which is confusing because the old versions of various X-Men characters are still here. Ian McKellen’s Magneto, Patrick Stewart’s Professor X, and James Marsden’s Cyclops all turn up in Avengers: Doomsday later this year. Whether they survive it is another question, and the odds don’t look good. Here’s what Jean’s introduction tells us about how Marvel plans to get from one set of X-Men to the other.

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Sadie Sink at the premiere of Spider-Man: Brand New Day —Gilbert Flores—Variety via Getty Images

How is Jean Grey introduced in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?

Jean is the misunderstood villain of the latest Spider-Man movie. She uses mind control to break into the Department of Damage Control, the government body originally created to clear the rubble after the fight in the first Avengers movie and since expanded into something closer to SHIELD, charged with safeguarding the public. Its head, Bill Metzger (Tramell Tillman), has a private agenda: he wants to contain superpowered beings and take their abilities. He kidnaps Jean’s sister Sarah, also a telepath, and performs experiments on her. Jean tries to save her, but arrives too late.

The movie draws a parallel between Jean Grey and Peter Parker. Both are isolated. Both see their powers evolve. (We even get hints of the destructive emotions in Jean that could eventually manifest in her alter-ego Dark Phoenix.) Peter talks Jean out of killing Metzger and encourages her to find friends who can embrace her for who she is rather than shame her for being different. At the end of the movie, she boards a bus out of New York. Somewhere ahead of her is the found family at Professor X’s school.

For now, Jean is the only future X-Man we know of in Peter’s timeline. That distinction matters, because the MCU has spent years establishing that variants of the same hero exist across parallel timelines. Bruce Banner and the Ancient One lay out the branching rules in Avengers: Endgame. Loki built an entire series around the TVA, the bureaucracy tasked with policing different timeline branches. And in Deadpool & Wolverine, Deadpool shops across timelines for a Wolverine variant willing to help him save his universe. The Jean Grey played by Janssen, along with Cyclops (Marsden), Magneto (McKellen), and Storm (Halle Berry), live in one of those other timelines.

Tom Holland as Spider-Man in Spider-Man: Brand New Day —Sony Pictures

How do the events of Spider-Man: Brand New Day set up an X-Men film?

In Brand New Day, Peter’s actions may set in motion a major conflict between mutants and the government. Peter begins to develop new abilities thanks to a spike in arachnid hormones. At first, he can’t control his new powers; they make him stronger but also more angry. In an effort to return to “normal,” Peter visits Bruce Banner, a.k.a. The Hulk, who has invented a gamma radiation inhibitor to prevent himself from turning into “the big green guy.” Peter suggests that he could adapt the technology to target specific genes, preserving his “good” powers while suppressing the “bad” ones. Banner warns that judging which evolutionary traits are good or bad is an ethical slippery slope.

Nonetheless, Peter builds both an inhibitor calibrated to target his own evolved powers and a universal one, which he uses to defeat Jean Grey. By the end of the film, the Department of Damage Control has its hands on the universal inhibitor. It’s probably not the last we see of it.

A device that can suppress superhuman abilities will likely play a major role in future X-Men films. Mutants, and Magneto in particular, are frequently in conflict with the government over the attempt to eliminate or “normalize” them. While Professor X advocates for finding a way to live harmoniously beside humans, Magneto frequently takes the stance that humans will inevitably target mutants because of their differences. With the inhibitor, Peter may have accidentally seeded a future conflict between whoever this universe’s Magneto turns out to be and Bill Metzger, should Metzger attempt to use this technology to continue to capture, control, experiment on, and eliminate mutants as he does to Sarah.

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Already some early fans are comparing Peter’s invention of this universal inhibitor to J. Robert Oppenheimer in Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer: The physicist built the atomic bomb and then came to regret it, spending years advocating against nuclear proliferation. By the end of Brand New Day, Peter has accepted his own evolution and come to realize the government had specifically designed weapons to contain him. Once Peter understands how the universal inhibitor could be weaponized against people with special abilities, he surely will side with the mutants against its use.

James Marsden as Cyclops in Avengers: Doomsday —Marvel Studios

How are the Fox X-Men in Avengers: Doomsday if they are from a different timeline?

Trailers and casting announcements have confirmed a substantial Fox contingent in Doomsday: Stewart as Professor X, McKellen as Magneto, Marsden as Cyclops, Rebecca Romijn as Mystique, Alan Cumming as Nightcrawler, Kelsey Grammer as Beast, and Channing Tatum as Gambit, who never appeared in the Fox movies but did make his debut in Deadpool & Wolverine.

It’s unclear which timelines these X-Men hail from. Stewart’s Professor X has already died three different times: vaporized by Jean Grey in X-Men: The Last Stand, stabbed through the chest by X-24 in Logan, and neck-snapped by Wanda Maximoff in Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Whatever version shows up in Doomsday, it’s presumably a variant we haven’t met.

The Doomsday trailers suggest that Marvel is employing a specific mechanism that gets all the superheroes in the same room: an incursion, a catastrophic event where the two separate universes collide and destroy one another. In a recent trailer, Professor X seems to witness an incursion. Fans are speculating that various superheroes travel across timelines to join forces and stop both the incursions. In fact, the Fantastic Four have already made that journey: At the end of Thunderbolts*, Yelena (Florence Pugh) spots the Fantastic Four’s ship entering her universe. If the Fantastic Four can reach the Avengers’ timeline, the Avengers can presumably reach the X-Men timeline.

Robert Downey Jr. debuts as Doctor Doom as the Marvel Studios Panel at 2024 San Diego Comic-Con —Matt Winkelmeyer—Getty Images

What role will the X-Men play in Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars?

Feige said at a fan event that Secret Wars will launch “a new age of mutants” in the MCU. That tracks with the comics storyline from which the movie takes its name. In the comics, every parallel timeline is destroyed. A great many heroes and villains die. Many survivors forget their past lives and live on the single remaining planet, Battleworld, ruled by Doctor Doom. That story let Marvel writers clear the board, cut the characters who weren’t working, keep the ones who were, and introduce new ones.

On screen, Secret Wars is a tidy way to justify a new cast and a rebooted storyline. How Jean Grey fits into this plan is unclear. She could survive the incursions and wind up on Battleworld, possibly alongside Peter Parker, who winds up in space in a Brand New Day post-credits. Or perhaps she will become an early recruit to the X-Men team after the events of Secret Wars.

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Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool and Hugh Jackman as Wolverine in Deadpool & Wolverine —Marvel Studios

When will there be a new X-Men movie?

A new X-Men movie is in the works, though fans won’t see it until after 2027’s Secret Wars. Thunderbolts* director Jake Schreier is helming with a script by Lee Sung Jin (Beef) and Joanna Calo (The Bear).

At the San Diego Comic-Con in 2026, Feige told fans, “I can’t wait for all of you to see Avengers: Doomsday. We have a movie after that called Avengers: Secret Wars, and then after that the mutants are coming, and the X-Men are coming. That’s been a dream of mine.” He has since said the cast will be young, as the characters are in the comics.

A lot is riding on the Marvel Studios’ execution of the X-Men saga. Fans have expressed frustration at how convoluted the Marvel multiverse has become and how newer additions to the MCU haven’t reached the emotional highs of Iron Man or Captain America. Refocusing on the X-Men could open up new stories and offer a more streamlined Marvel storytelling experience going forward.

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ECB Says Digital Euro App to Exceed EU Accessibility Standards

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ECB Says Digital Euro App to Exceed EU Accessibility Standards

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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New York Sues Kalshi, Alleging Illegal Gambling Activities

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Crypto Breaking News

New York has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, arguing the company operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business in the state by offering contracts tied to outcomes such as sports events and elections. The case seeks to halt Kalshi’s alleged activity, recover money described as illegal gains, and impose civil penalties.

New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement that “no matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple,” adding that the state is acting to enforce its laws and protect residents. The complaint also follows regulatory action by the New York State Gaming Commission, which previously issued a cease-and-desist order.

Key takeaways

  • New York is suing Kalshi to stop what it characterizes as unlicensed gambling conducted through “event contracts” tied to outcomes including elections and sports.
  • The lawsuit seeks forfeiture of alleged illegal gains, restitution to users, and civil penalties stated as three times those gains.
  • The dispute reflects a wider U.S. jurisdiction fight over whether states can enforce gambling laws against event contracts listed by federally regulated exchanges.
  • The CFTC has argued—through emergency court filings in connection with the case—that it holds exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act.
  • Regulatory pressure on prediction markets comes as the segment grows, including through blockchain-based products and large-scale event-driven trading activity.

New York’s claims against Kalshi

According to the lawsuit, New York’s core position is that Kalshi’s prediction products amount to gambling under state law because they allow users to wager on outcomes. The state is asking the court for multiple remedies: an order stopping the alleged illegal operation, forfeiture of illegal gains, restitution to affected users, and civil penalties equal to three times those gains.

New York’s filing also follows earlier enforcement steps. The New York State Gaming Commission issued Kalshi a cease-and-desist order in October 2025. Kalshi responded by suing the regulator in federal court.

As described in the lead-up to the new lawsuit, a judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in July, and an appeals court later rejected Kalshi’s attempt to block enforcement while its appeal continues.

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Kalshi disputes New York’s framing. Elisabeth Diana, the company’s head of communications, said the action is “political theater,” arguing that states cannot simply shut down a federally licensed exchange, and warning that such a move would push users “offshore.”

CFTC says federal oversight should control

New York’s case sits within a broader legal contest about regulatory authority over prediction markets. In the days leading up to the lawsuit, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an emergency motion in federal court seeking to block New York’s enforcement efforts.

The CFTC argued that New York’s approach interferes with the agency’s exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate designated contract markets, including platforms such as Kalshi. Put differently, the federal regulator is asserting that once an exchange is operating within the CFTC’s framework, state gambling laws should not be used to restrict the same kinds of event contracts.

The CFTC has taken similar stances in disputes involving multiple states, positioning the conflict as an issue of federal supremacy and consistent commodities oversight. The regulator’s concern, as reflected in its court filings, is that allowing individual states to prohibit event contracts listed by federally regulated venues would create conflicting rules and “undermine federal commodities regulation.”

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This framing matters for participants because it affects where prediction market activity can legally occur and how compliant operators must be. It also has practical implications for platform design and market access: if a state can apply its gambling rules regardless of federal designation, exchanges could face uneven compliance burdens across jurisdictions.

Prediction markets and mainstream momentum

Prediction markets operate by allowing participants to buy and sell contracts tied to future outcomes, with contract prices intended to reflect the market’s estimate of the probability that an event will occur. In recent years, this model has attracted increased attention—especially around high-profile events that draw large audiences.

Kalshi is not the only major player facing regulatory scrutiny. Polymarket, another prominent prediction market, has also encountered challenges abroad, with reporting noting restrictions and investigations tied to gambling and licensing concerns.

Meanwhile, the sector has continued to experiment with blockchain-based infrastructure. Kalshi began expanding into blockchain-based infrastructure in December 2025, launching tokenized prediction markets on Solana and later adding support for multiple blockchain networks. That shift underscores how prediction market operators are adapting product delivery, potentially changing how users access contracts and where trading activity occurs.

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On-chain prediction markets have also shown signs of scale around major global events. According to analytics firm Chainalysis, blockchain-based prediction markets processed about $20 billion in trading tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with more than 400,000 wallets participating—an example of the demand that can emerge when widely watched events create an appetite for probability-based trading.

What to watch as the legal fight advances

For market participants, the key question is whether the courts treat event-contract regulation as primarily a matter of federal commodities oversight—or whether states retain meaningful authority to apply their gambling laws to prediction platforms operating within (or near) federally regulated structures. The CFTC’s emergency motion and New York’s pursuit of enforcement remedies suggest the case could be used to clarify that boundary.

Readers should watch next for how federal courts address the CFTC’s arguments about exclusive jurisdiction, and whether any interim rulings change Kalshi’s ability to offer specific event contracts within New York while the broader appeal process plays out.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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