Bitcoin (BTC) appears positioned for a potentially extended uptrend as a key valuation metric moves toward a bullish cross with a long-term moving average. CryptoQuant analysts highlighted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is on track to print a golden cross against the 200-day moving average, a signal historically associated with powerful rallies. While markets remain cautious, the signal adds to a growing cadence of optimism among a subset of traders and analysts.

Among market participants, there is still debate about the near-term path. Some traders contend that the bear market found its bottom around $60,000, and a substantial breakout could follow as the market digests the latest bullish indicators. The mix of on-chain metrics and price action has kept the discussion lively, with several analysts weighing in on what a new cycle might entail.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is approaching a golden cross with the 200-day EMA, a pattern historically followed by major upswings.
• There is a contingent view that $60,000 marked the bear-market bottom, with expectations of a substantial breakout ahead.
• The looming MVRV-200D EMA cross is framed by some analysts as a sign of a trend reversal rather than a mere consolidation phase.
• Short-term cost-basis bands for the most recent holders imply room for further upside, with key levels around $92,000 and $104,000 identified as “heated” and “overheated” zones.

MVRV momentum: a potential trend reversal in the making

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio — a gauge that compares market value to the realized value of coins — is on the cusp of a bullish crossover with the 200-day moving average, according to CryptoQuant analyst CW8900. In a recent post, CW8900 described the anticipated cross as a “golden cross” and said, “This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator.”

The last times such a cross appeared served as notable inflection points. The immediate past example occurred after the 2022 cycle bottom, when BTC subsequently rallied about 90% to roughly $31,000 from about $16,300 in Q1 2023. A later cross in September 2023 was followed by a multi-fold rally, culminating in a peak near the all-time high observed in October 2025.

Earlier in the cycle, CW8900 had flagged a golden cross when the 30-day simple moving average of the MVRV ratio crossed above the 90-day SMA in late April, suggesting a broader bullish tilt for BTC. Such assessments align with a growing array of on-chain signals that traders watch for potential regime shifts.

Near-term price action and the cost-basis narrative

Bitcoin’s latest rally took it into the high-$70,000s and toward $83,000, reinforcing the view that bulls are testing key resistance levels. The market is now confronting the 200-day moving average around $82,500, a level that has historically served as a pivot between range-bound action and a breakout. A sustained move above this line could mark an end to the prevailing multi-month downtrend; conversely, failure to clear it might invite renewed downside pressure toward pivotal supports, including around $50,000.

Analyst Shib Spain argued that BTC’s break above a multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart signaled a structural shift away from bearish dominance, reinforced by a MACD bullish crossover. “Bitcoin’s huge breakout is coming. MACD bullish reversal forming,” the analyst wrote, claiming the bull run is just getting started.

Market observers have also highlighted the growing support from on-chain metrics tied to long-term and short-term holders. In particular, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis — the average price paid by wallets that held BTC for fewer than 155 days — has moved with the price, indicating that newer buyers have reentered at levels that could support further upside. When viewed through the lens of cost-basis bands, the chart suggests BTC could move into the “heated” zone near $92,000, with a further push toward the “overheated” band around $104,000 if momentum strengthens.

Is a supercycle on the horizon, or is this a more modest expansion?

Beyond the immediate technicals, several observers have framed the current setup within a potential larger structural move. Cointelegraph coverage and market commentary have pointed to the possibility of a “supercycle” rally, with forecasts ranging into the $180,000–$250,000 area within a relatively short horizon, backed by institutional accumulation and an improving technical footing. While these projections reflect a segment of the market’s most optimistic voices, they come with caveats about macro conditions, regulatory developments, and the durability of on-chain demand.

As with any cycle-high narrative, readers should consider the balance of factors: retail and institutional participation, macro liquidity, and how on-chain metrics align with price action across multiple timeframes. The coming weeks could test whether the current signals translate into a sustained uptrend or if resistance at key levels reasserts itself.

Related coverage notes a broader context in which notable investors and firms continue to express interest in BTC exposure, including high-profile moves and statements that have kept conversations about the asset’s strategic role in diversified portfolios alive. For a broader perspective on recent developments, see the referenced materials linked in this report.

What lies ahead for BTC will hinge on a confluence of technical signals and macro catalysts. A decisive move above the $82,500–$83,000 zone would bolster the bulls’ case, while a rejection could set the stage for a renewed test of lower supports. Investors and traders should monitor the evolving MVRV signal, the MACD dynamics, and the on-chain cost-basis bands as the market weighs its next big move.

Further reading and related discussion can be found in coverage that examined Saylor’s activity and other BTC buy-sell signals in Q1 earnings context as the narrative around price discovery continues to evolve.

Readers should stay tuned for how BTC behaves around the 200-day moving average and whether the anticipated MVRV cross materializes into sustained demand, especially given the divergent opinions about the path of a potential “supercycle.”

TLDR

• Bitmine reduced its weekly ether purchases after months of rapid accumulation in 2026.
• The company bought 26,659 ETH last week, worth about $63 million at current prices.
• Bitmine now holds more than 5.2 million ETH, which equals about 4.31% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.
• Tom Lee said the firm slowed buying as it approached its long-term goal of owning 5% of supply.
• Bitmine has acquired over 1 million ETH since the start of this year.
• The company’s total crypto and cash holdings stand at $13.4 billion.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has reduced its weekly ether purchases after months of rapid accumulation. Chairman Tom Lee confirmed the shift after the firm approached its 5% Ethereum supply target. The company still holds over 5.2 million ETH after buying more than 1 million tokens this year.

Bitmine Eases Weekly Ether Accumulation Pace

Bitmine bought 26,659 ETH last week, valued at about $63 million at current prices. However, that figure equals roughly one quarter of its recent weekly average. The purchase increased total holdings to over 5.2 million ETH, or about 4.31% of the circulating supply.

Tom Lee addressed the change during remarks at Consensus 2026 in Miami. He said the company would reduce weekly purchases from over 100,000 ETH. “Our previous pace of buys would have us reach 5% by mid-July,” Lee said in a statement.

The company adjusted its pace as it neared its long-term acquisition target. Lee said Bitmine considered easing purchases once it approached the 5% threshold. The firm has already acquired more than 1 million ETH since January 2026.

Bitmine continues to buy ether despite the broader market downturn. Lee stated that the company remains committed to its treasury strategy. He described the recent months as one of the fastest accumulation periods in the crypto sector.

He also expressed confidence in current market trends and recovery signals. “We have decided to slow down our pace of weekly accumulation,” Lee said. He linked the change to timing rather than a shift in outlook.

Ethereum Holdings and Treasury Composition

Bitmine’s total crypto and cash holdings stand at $13.4 billion. The company holds 201 Bitcoin alongside its Ether reserves. It also maintains $775 million in cash and equity stakes.

Those equity investments include Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings. However, ether remains the core asset in the company’s treasury. The firm focuses its strategy on Ethereum’s long-term supply position.

Bitmine has staked more than 4.7 million ETH from its total holdings. That amount represents over 90% of its ether balance. The staked assets currently hold an estimated value of $11.1 billion.

The company operates its MAVAN staking platform to manage these assets. It launched the platform earlier this year for institutional clients. Bitmine also uses MAVAN for its internal treasury operations.

Lee reiterated his outlook for Ether’s price performance. “If ETH closes above $2,100 at the end of May, this would be the third consecutive monthly gain,” he said. He added that such a streak has not occurred during a crypto bear market.

The company continues to monitor Ether’s monthly performance levels. Lee linked price strength to improving sentiment in software and growth stocks. He maintained that what he calls “crypto spring” has begun.

Payward, the parent company of crypto platform Kraken, is raising new capital at a $20 billion valuation, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

Kraken declined to comment on the raise.

The latest fundraising round comes as the company ramps up spending on takeovers.

Most recently, it bought stablecoin-focused payments firm Reap for $600 million and digital asset derivatives platform Bitnomial for $550 million as it continues to scale up ahead of a planned IPO. Payward was valued at $20 billion in both transactions.

Its biggest deal came in 2025 with the $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader, a U.S.-based retail futures platform and CFTC-registered futures commission merchant. The acquisition gave Kraken a major foothold in the U.S. derivatives market while expanding its reach to a broad base of active futures traders.

Payward said it confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on November 19, marking the first step toward a potential public listing.

CoinDesk reported in March that the company had paused its IPO plans amid unfavorable market conditions. Sources said the firm remains interested in going public, though likely only once market conditions improve.

At Consensus Miami last week, Payward and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said the exchange is “80% ready” to go public.

Kraken is a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange that lets users buy, sell and trade digital assets, including bitcoin and ether, using either fiat currencies or crypto. The company has expanded beyond spot trading into products such as derivatives, staking and custody, transforming itself into a broader full-service crypto platform.

In recent years, the Wyoming-based firm has adopted a more focused but increasingly strategic acquisition strategy aimed at expanding beyond core crypto trading into derivatives and broader multi-asset market infrastructure.

Deutsche Börse stake

Deutsche Börse (DB1), the owner of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and Xetra, announced in April that it had taken a $200 million stake in Payward.

The stake, acquired through a secondary share sale, represented roughly 1.5% of the company. The transaction valued Payward at $13.3 billion, down from the roughly $20 billion valuation attached to previous fundraising rounds. Payward did not receive any proceeds from the transaction.

Last November, Kraken said it had raised $800 million in two tranches to support its push into bringing traditional financial products onchain. The round included backing from investors such as Jane Street, DRW Venture Capital and Tribe Capital, while Citadel Securities later agreed to a separate $200 million strategic investment at a $20 billion valuation.

Read more: Kraken parent goes for the OCC charter in bid to become a federal crypto bank

Key Takeaways

• AST SpaceMobile shares climbed 12.15% Monday before its Q1 2026 quarterly results, scheduled for release after market close
• Wall Street consensus calls for a $0.2125 per-share loss with $37.5 million in quarterly revenue
• The company lost a BlueBird 7 satellite following a Blue Origin launch malfunction; insurance coverage anticipated
• Rising rivalry from Amazon’s $10.8 billion Globalstar acquisition and SpaceX’s Starlink platform intensifies market dynamics
• Implied volatility suggests a roughly 12.1% price swing following the earnings announcement

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) surged more than 12% during Monday’s session, reaching $75.05, as market participants braced for the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial results set to drop after the closing bell.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

Despite Monday’s strong performance, the stock remains significantly below its 52-week peak of $129.89, indicating substantial ground left to recover.

Analyst consensus points to a quarterly loss of $0.2125 per share alongside revenue of $37.5 million for the March period. These figures would represent progress from the previous quarter’s $0.26 loss per share, although revenue is projected to decline from the $54.3 million recorded in Q4.

Per-share loss estimates have deteriorated by 15.1% during the last two months, reflecting increasing analyst skepticism ahead of the results.

Launch Failure Raises Questions About Deployment Strategy

A failed Blue Origin New Glenn rocket mission last month resulted in AST‘s BlueBird 7 satellite being placed in an incorrect orbit. The satellite has since reentered the atmosphere and is classified as a complete loss, although the company confirms insurance will cover the incident.

Initial projections called for deploying 45 to 60 satellites throughout this year. Industry analyst Tim Farrar now forecasts actual deployments between 21 and 42 units, complicated by the FAA’s current grounding of the launch vehicle.

Market observers will pay close attention to any guidance updates regarding adjusted deployment schedules and backup launch provider arrangements.

Company leadership previously established a 2026 revenue goal ranging from $150 million to $200 million, banking on accelerated commercial launches during the year’s latter half. Wall Street projects revenue could hit $1 billion in 2027.

Amazon and SpaceX Intensify Direct-to-Device Battle

Competitive dynamics have evolved rapidly. Amazon’s approximately $10.8 billion deal to purchase Globalstar represents a major entry into satellite-to-device communications. Deutsche Bank subsequently lowered its AST price target, anticipating increased pricing competition.

SpaceX’s Starlink platform maintains market leadership and currently operates commercial services in partnership with T-Mobile.

Industry forecasts project the direct-to-device sector will expand from $570 million in 2025 to $2.64 billion by 2030, underscoring the importance of successful execution.

Among 10 analysts tracking ASTS, three maintain buy ratings, five recommend holding, and two advise selling. The average price target stands at $83.90, suggesting approximately 12% potential upside from current trading levels. Price targets span from Scotiabank’s $41.20 to Clear Street’s $115.

Options trading volume ahead of earnings runs at 1.6 times typical levels, with call options outnumbering puts by a 3-to-1 margin. Derivatives markets indicate an expected price movement of approximately 12.1%, or roughly $10, following the earnings release. Historical data shows a median 9% post-earnings move across the previous eight quarters.

The broader space technology sector also posted gains Monday, contributing momentum to ASTS’s advance.

For years, Audemars Piguet (AP) timepieces were regarded as a mark of success for a certain kind of crypto bro. Over the weekend, the watchmaker announced that it’s collaborating with Swatch, an entry-level watchmaker.

The “Royal Pop” collab has, in the eyes of crypto investors who bought into AP’s ostensibly exclusive brand, destroyed its reputation as a wealth signal for crypto bros who’ve made it.

Indeed, Protos spoke with two watch resellers who say that complaints from AP owners are “raining in.”

The AP watch that inspired the upcoming Swatch design, AP’s Royal Oak, has long sold for north of $30,000. Models of Royal Oak with more rarity, such as the 15202ST, have even resold for six figures.

To the dismay of collectors who thought AP would protect its brand, both companies called the partnership a “disruptive collaboration that fuses joyful boldness.”

Translated into crypto jargon, it was a rug-pull.

Social status devastation

Crypto Twitter understood the framing immediately. “Imagine owning a Royal Oak and a dude in a Swatch comes up to you like hey man nice watch I got one too 10/10 for crypto influencers all over again lmao.”

Another commentator wrote what others were thinking: “The crypto bros can finally get their AP. Even the ones who roundtripped their entire port or are down 96.69%. Shoutout to Swatch.” 

An NFT veteran with more than 277,000 followers laughed, “Can’t wait to buy my black royal oak x swatch so I can act like a cool kid at my next crypto event.”

AP’s Swatch collab, announced over the weekend, drops on Saturday, May 16. In plastic. For approximately $500.

Chopping the Royal Oak down

High-end AP watches like Royal Oak earned the attention of newly enriched crypto influencers. Their watches had scarce supply, cultural cachet, a chart that only went up.

From 2019 to early 2022, AP prices charted like a crypto runner.

The Royal Oak 15202ST Jumbo averaged about $21,800 on the secondary market in 2016, per dealer data. By 2021, it averaged $69,000. By 2022, it peaked near $106,000.

The move tracked the crypto bull market in lockstep which peaked in November 2021, before losing two-thirds of its value within 12 months.

Even before this week’s disappointment, dealer data showed AP 15202ST watches changing hands at roughly one-third less than their 2022 peak.

Digital asset company Galaxy and Ethereum treasury platform Sharplink will launch a private fund that will invest Ether in decentralized finance (DeFi) strategies, signaling growing institutional interest in earning onchain yield from crypto holdings.

The proposed fund, called the Galaxy Sharplink Onchain Yield Fund, is expected to launch in the coming weeks with $125 million in initial commitments, the companies said Monday.

Sharplink plans to contribute $100 million from its staked Ether (ETH) treasury, while Galaxy will commit $25 million and serve as the fund’s manager.

The fund will allocate capital to DeFi liquidity protocols and other onchain yield opportunities, with the goal of generating additional returns while allowing Sharplink to maintain its long-term exposure to Ether.

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz said the structure reflects growing institutional demand for blockchain-based investment products that offer yield and risk management tools similar to those used in traditional finance.

The value of Sharplink’s Ether portfolio. Source: CoinGecko

Sharplink is one of the largest corporate holders of Ether, with more than 868,000 ETH on its balance sheet. At October market highs, those holdings were valued at nearly $4 billion.

Related: Crypto Biz: Wall Street wants more than just Bitcoin

Sharplink posts nearly $686 million Q1 loss as ETH price declines

Sharplink has continued to expand its Ethereum treasury strategy despite a sharp first-quarter loss driven by Ether’s price decline.

The company on Monday reported a net loss of $685.6 million, or $3.25 per diluted share, primarily due to non-cash accounting charges related to the drop in ETH prices during the quarter. Of that total, $506.7 million was attributed to unrealized losses on its Ether holdings.

Ether fell from a mid-January high of about $3,354 to $2,104 on March 31, according to CoinMarketCap data. It was last trading hands on Monday at about $2,339.

Revenue in the quarter rose to $12.1 million from $700,000 a year earlier, reflecting growth in the company’s operating business.

Since launching its Ether treasury strategy in June 2025, Sharplink has earned approximately 18,800 ETH in cumulative staking rewards. The company ended the first quarter with $16.9 million in cash.

Sharplink’s balance sheet as of March 31, 2026. Source: Sharplink

The results underscore the volatility associated with crypto treasury strategies, particularly for companies that accumulated large positions over the past year. Similar pressures have affected Bitcoin treasury companies, where earnings can swing sharply with underlying asset prices.

Related: Crypto treasury companies likely to consolidate in 2026: Crypto exec

Australia Targets Long-Term Crypto Gains Through New CGT Framework

Australia moved closer to changing its capital gains tax structure for cryptocurrencies and other assets. Bitcoin traded near $103,000 during the proposal discussions, while broader crypto markets remained stable. The government plans to replace the current 50% CGT discount with an inflation-indexed tax framework from 2027.

The proposed reform appeared ahead of Australia’s federal budget announcement scheduled for Tuesday night. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is expected to outline the full proposal during the fiscal budget presentation. The plan would directly affect cryptocurrencies, shares, and other long-term investment assets.

The government also plans to offer a transition period for newly acquired assets. Assets purchased after budget night would still receive the existing discount until mid-2027. However, the updated framework would later apply to gains earned on those holdings.

Crypto Market Faces Higher Compliance and Tax Costs

The proposal could increase compliance requirements for cryptocurrency holders across Australia. Traders and long-term holders would need to track inflation-adjusted cost bases more accurately. Consequently, tax reporting processes could become more complex for digital asset transactions.

The government framed the reform as part of a broader effort to modernize Australia’s tax system. Authorities also continue expanding digital asset regulations across trading and custody services. Last month, Australia approved new licensing rules for digital asset and tokenized custody platforms.

Critics argued that the tax overhaul could redirect capital away from productive investments. Some market participants warned that higher CGT rates may favor owner-occupied housing over businesses and commercial assets. Others stated that investment activity could continue if market returns remain attractive.

Australia Expands Crypto Regulation Alongside Tax Reforms

The proposed CGT overhaul arrived as Australia increased oversight of the digital asset industry. Regulators recently introduced licensing requirements for crypto platforms operating within the country. The government stated that the measures aim to improve accountability and market standards.

The updated tax structure would also align cryptocurrencies more closely with other taxable investment classes. Officials expect the inflation-linked model to calculate gains more accurately during periods of rising prices. However, many long-term crypto holders could still pay more tax compared with the current system.

Australia’s crypto sector now faces simultaneous regulatory and tax adjustments ahead of 2027. The proposed changes could reshape trading behavior and long-term holding strategies across the market. Parliament is expected to debate the measures after the federal budget announcement.