Galaxy Digital cut its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a 50-50 outcome, arguing that the US Senate is facing a shrinking window to advance the digital-asset bill before lawmakers depart for its August recess. The firm’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, said the change reflects timing pressures rather than a sudden shift in the bill’s underlying policy merits.

Thorn pointed to structural hurdles in the Senate—most notably the absence of a single, unified text spanning the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, uncertainty around when the bill might reach the floor, and an increasingly tight legislative calendar. In parallel, he said political maneuvering over other high-profile legislation has intensified competition for limited Senate scheduling time.

Key takeaways

• Galaxy Digital reduced its 2026 odds for the CLARITY Act passing to 50%, citing Senate floor-time uncertainty and a narrowing timetable.
• The firm previously estimated 60% after lowering its forecast on June 9 from 75% set just weeks earlier on May 22.
• Thorn said the downgrade is primarily about timing, not whether the CLARITY Act’s substance has gained or lost support.
• US Senate scheduling constraints are being heightened by competing legislative priorities, including the SAVE Act debate.
• Although the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, lawmakers still must find a feasible path through the full Senate before the August recess.

Galaxy’s odds cut tracks a tighter Senate path

In a post shared via Alex Thorn’s social account, Galaxy said it is lowering its projected odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to “50-50.” Thorn framed the adjustment as a response to the Senate’s calendar realities—specifically, the likelihood that even a bill with bipartisan backing may fail to secure enough procedural and scheduling bandwidth to reach a final vote.

The update comes after Galaxy changed its estimate multiple times in recent weeks. On June 9, Galaxy lowered its forecast to 60% from a prior 75% estimate. Earlier, on May 22, the firm raised its odds to 75%, signaling that it believed the bill’s momentum could be sustained.

Thorn emphasized that the downgrade should not be interpreted as a commentary on the bill’s policy direction. Instead, he said the core problem is “timing”—including a lack of clarity on whether a Senate Banking-Agriculture unified version exists that can move through the chamber, and whether leadership can allocate the bill a meaningful slot on the floor.

August recess looms as competing fights intensify

Galaxy’s argument is anchored in the Senate’s near-term schedule. According to the US Senate’s legislative timetable, the chamber entered a work period Monday through July 10. The Senate is also expected to begin its traditional August recess on Aug. 8 for roughly five weeks, before returning Sept. 14.

Thorn suggested the path to passage grows harder as the calendar compresses. He warned that lawmakers are dealing with an “already crowded queue” for floor time and said debate over the SAVE Act has added another “contentious” and resource-heavy fight into the same scheduling bottleneck.

Thorn further noted that the broader legislative environment includes other unfinished and politically sensitive items, which can make it harder for any single bill—especially one requiring coordination across committees—to gain priority. He cited Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027 as additional “must-pass” targets that often draw political attention.

In this context, the CLARITY Act’s timeline is also under scrutiny. The bill is scheduled for a House hearing on July 17, and it is intended to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.

Where the CLARITY Act stands—and why pushback persists

While the CLARITY Act has advanced in Congress, it has not escaped controversy. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, but according to coverage at the time, most Democrats on the committee and parts of the banking industry pushed back. Critics argued that the bill could permit crypto firms to offer yield products connected to stablecoins without meeting the same requirements imposed on traditional financial institutions.

Regulatory and public-safety objections have also surfaced from outside the banking sector. Earlier reporting noted that groups including law enforcement organizations and coalitions of Catholic organizations contacted White House officials with concerns that the CLARITY Act could create oversight gaps related to illicit activity.

At the same time, industry advocates continue to press for movement. At the beginning of June, over 200 crypto firms and organizations urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter shared by the crypto lobbying group Stand With Crypto, underscoring that supporters are working to keep momentum alive even as schedule pressure increases.

What to watch as timing becomes the deciding factor

With Galaxy now treating 2026 passage as a coin flip, the practical question for market participants is whether the Senate leadership can align committee processes and secure floor time before the August recess. The next developments to monitor are procedural: whether a workable, unified Senate text emerges; what the Senate leadership’s floor schedule ultimately looks like; and how the SAVE Act and other high-priority “must-pass” items affect what can realistically be brought to a vote.

The locked capital needed for a MiCA spot license is relatively small, somewhere between 50,000 euros ($57,000) and 150,000 euros by class, according to Patrick Gruhn, founder and CEO of Perpetuals.com Ltd. (PDC).

What becomes costly is the license itself, which can be as high as 700,000 euros in year one and 250,000 euros a year after for a lean firm, or into the millions for a large exchange, Gruhn said via email. “Call it 12–24 months to the first authorized trade with maybe €100k lawyer fees,” he said.

As for the number of jobs that could be lost due to MiCA, no reliable estimate exists. However, many of the 80% of pre-MiCA platforms facing extinction are tiny shell entities, Gruhn said.

“That overstates the situation significantly,” Gruhn said. “And much of it is reallocation, since licensed firms have to hire compliance staff and the offshore ones don’t.”

Changing environment

Nevertheless, MiCA threatens to stifle crypto as an industry in some countries. The situation is particularly harsh in Poland, where domestic legislative delays and presidential vetoes have meant the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) has faced roadblocks in establishing a fully functional crypto application and licensing regime.

Mateusz Kara, CEO of Morphic Financial Group, which is headquartered in London and has deep roots and operations in Poland, said the MiCA deadline could “wipe out Polish crypto.”

Key Takeaways

• ASML shares currently hover around $1,841, within a 52-week trading band of $683.48 to $1,959.04, commanding a $724 billion market valuation
• The company’s order backlog stays robust as semiconductor manufacturers reserve EUV machinery years ahead, guaranteeing revenue visibility
• Revenue from installed base operations reached €2.49 billion in Q1 2026, climbing from €2.13 billion in the preceding quarter
• Management elevated full-year 2026 sales outlook to €36–€40 billion, while earnings per share are projected to surge 33% in the coming year
• Analyst consensus leans Moderate Buy with a mean price objective of $1,772.62; Bank of America maintained its Buy stance and increased its target

ASML began Friday’s session at $1,841.18. This represents a dramatic recovery from the 52-week floor of $683.48, and approaches the ceiling of $1,959.04. Following such a substantial appreciation, investors naturally wonder: does meaningful upside remain?

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The current valuation demands attention. ASML commands approximately 49.9x this year’s anticipated EPS of just under $36. This multiple significantly exceeds its historical average in the mid-30s range. For typical corporations, such pricing would trigger caution.

Yet ASML operates in a category of its own.

The Dutch company maintains an uncontested monopoly on Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment — the critical machinery enabling cutting-edge semiconductor production. Manufacturing 2-nanometer chips is impossible without this technology. No competing suppliers exist.

Each unit commands a price exceeding $350 million and requires months for assembly, precision calibration, and delivery. Customers don’t simply submit purchase orders — they reserve manufacturing capacity years into the future. This represents far more than a healthy sales funnel. It constitutes structural market control.

Order Backlog and Service Revenue Drive Fundamentals

Q1 2026 net revenue totaled €8.77 billion, representing a decline from Q4 2025’s €9.72 billion. At first glance, this suggests weakening momentum. The reality differs considerably.

ASML’s quarterly revenue fluctuates based on delivery schedules rather than underlying demand. Every system the company manufactures already has a committed buyer. The quarter-over-quarter decrease reflects production capacity constraints, not softening customer appetite.

The more revealing metric comes from installed base management. This revenue category — encompassing maintenance and enhancement of existing deployed systems — registered €2.49 billion in Q1, advancing from €2.13 billion the prior quarter. It delivers predictable, margin-rich, and expanding cash flows.

Executives lifted full-year 2026 guidance to a revenue corridor of €36 billion to €40 billion. The latter half of the year should show acceleration, powered by increasing system deliveries.

TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are all expanding fabrication facilities to satisfy AI infrastructure requirements. These facilities require ASML’s equipment. Hyperscaler capital spending is forecast to nearly double from $427 billion in 2025 to beyond $860 billion by 2027.

Profit Margin Improvement Represents the Upcoming Driver

EPS consensus forecasts indicate 33% expansion next year. This figure anchors the bullish investment thesis.

The route to that outcome flows through margin enhancement. ASML is shifting from limited-volume, early-phase production of its latest systems — including the high-margin High-NA EUV platform and the NXE:3800 series — toward standardized, volume-scale manufacturing. Fixed expense allocation improves across larger unit counts. Gross margins should progress toward management’s 2030 objective of 56%–60%.

One notable risk persists. China continues to represent approximately 19% of ASML’s revenue, and export limitations remain an active concern. Dutch government representatives are reportedly advocating against stricter restrictions on equipment sales to Chinese customers. Any intensification on this front could constrain sales.

Decker Retirement Planning recently established a fresh $4.23 million stake in ASML. Dimensional Fund Advisors maintains ownership exceeding 990,000 shares. Institutional holdings comprise 26.07% of outstanding equity.

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank all maintain Buy ratings or equivalents. Bank of America elevated its price objective citing improved earnings projections for 2027 and 2028.

The consensus mean target stands at $1,772.62, though an alternative analyst cohort establishes it at $2,019 — suggesting approximately 12.5% appreciation potential from present levels.

Key Takeaways

• ASTS shares rallied approximately 11% Thursday following the company’s announcement of three additional BlueBird satellites scheduled for August launch via SpaceX Falcon 9.
• The updated deployment timeline positions AST for launches every two months, enabling up to 18 satellite deployments annually.
• Twenty-four satellites (BlueBirds 14-37) are currently in production, with orbital deployment expected by late 2027.
• Institutional ownership stands at roughly 61% of outstanding shares; company insiders have liquidated over $280 million in stock during the past 90 days.
• Wall Street consensus leans toward “Reduce” with an average price target of $85.09; shares opened Monday trading at $71.57.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares surged approximately 11% during Thursday’s session, closing at $71.58. While no immediate news triggered the rally that day, the momentum followed the company’s recent announcement of an accelerated satellite deployment strategy that captured investor attention.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

Earlier during the week, the company disclosed that its upcoming trio of BlueBird satellites—units 11, 12, and 13—are slated for an August liftoff using SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch vehicle. This announcement arrives on the heels of the successful June 17 deployment of BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10.

The consecutive launch schedule establishes a rhythm of approximately one deployment every eight weeks, potentially enabling an annual deployment rate of 18 satellites.

AST is presently manufacturing 24 additional satellites—BlueBirds 14 through 37. Maintaining the current timeline, the company projects these units will achieve orbit before 2027 concludes, coinciding with the planned commencement of beta operations for its direct-to-cell (DTC) connectivity network.

The European market is also entering the picture. Statements connected to a Vodafone-supported deployment identified Spain as a potential early commercial territory, with service potentially beginning in 2027—strengthening the company’s international monetization narrative.

Wall Street’s Take: Ratings and Target Prices

Despite investor optimism reflected in recent price action, analyst sentiment remains tepid. The consensus rating on ASTS currently registers as “Reduce,” with analysts projecting an average fair value of $85.09.

Deutsche Bank recently downgraded the stock from buy to hold while trimming its price objective from $117 down to $106. B. Riley shifted to a “neutral” stance with an $85 valuation. Among the more optimistic voices, Roth MKM maintains a “buy” recommendation alongside a $108 price target.

Among the ten analysts providing coverage, just one rates the stock a buy. Six recommend holding. Three advise selling.

Technically, the stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $87.18, while the 200-day average rests at $89.23—both considerably above current price levels.

Heavy Insider Liquidation Draws Attention

A notable development that investors cannot overlook: significant insider selling activity.

During the past three months, company insiders have offloaded more than 3.1 million shares valued at approximately $280.6 million. This includes CFO Andrew Martin Johnson, who disposed of 45,809 shares at an average price of $93.81 on June 11, trimming his holdings by 8.34%.

Director Julio A. Torres separately sold 15,000 shares at $76.34 during May, reducing his position by roughly 26%.

Insiders currently control 20.89% of outstanding shares, while institutional investors hold 60.95%.

SG Americas Securities LLC expanded its ASTS position by 18.6% during Q1, purchasing an additional 11,813 shares to reach a total holding of 75,157.

Regarding financial performance, AST’s first quarter results disappointed. The company reported an EPS loss of -$0.66, significantly worse than the -$0.23 consensus estimate. Revenue totaled $14.73 million, falling short of the $39.01 million analyst projection.

Full-year EPS is forecast at -$1.47. The stock has traded within a 52-week range spanning from $36.08 to $133.86.

Bitcoin BTC$59,894.46 is currently trading below $60,000, placing it in “no man’s land,” a zone where price sits between major on chain support and resistance levels. BTC has failed to reclaim several important technical and on chain thresholds, so the path of least resistance appears to remain to the downside.

Several key valuation metrics now sit above the current price. The True Mean Price, currently around $76,300, estimates the average acquisition cost of coins after adjusting for lost or inactive supply, providing a more accurate measure of the network’s economic cost basis.

The 200-Day Moving Average, at $75,500, is a widely followed technical indicator that smooths price action over the past 200 days and is often used to distinguish long term bull and bear trends. The 128-Day Moving Average, at $70,900, tracks bitcoin’s intermediate trend, while the Short Term Holder Cost Basis, at $69,600, represents the average purchase price of investors who have held bitcoin for less than roughly 155 days.

Grayscale has said Bitcoin may be near its current cycle low if three key risks ease in the coming months. In a new market note, the asset manager said the outcome depends on the CLARITY Act, Strategy’s balance sheet and Federal Reserve policy. Its base case assumes the bill clears the Senate, Strategy improves its financial position and the Fed avoids more rate hikes.

“If downside risks materialize, we could see bitcoin fall moderately further,” Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said. He said a weaker case would involve the CLARITY Act failing to pass this year, digital asset treasuries deleveraging further and the Fed raising rates because inflation stays high.

The warning comes after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 during a sharp reset across crypto markets. Recent Bitcoin price analysis showed ETF outflows and liquidations added pressure as traders tried to defend the $60,000 area. Grayscale said older Bitcoin bear markets saw drawdowns of around 80%, but it does not expect the current cycle to fall that deeply because institutional demand has remained firmer.

CLARITY Act path remains uncertain

The CLARITY Act remains one of the main policy factors in Grayscale’s outlook. The bill would create a federal market structure framework for digital assets and give clearer rules to exchanges, developers and token issuers. A recent Senate update showed the bill had moved to the Senate calendar after committee approval, but still needs floor debate, possible amendments and 60 votes.

The bill’s path has narrowed as the Senate calendar fills up. A separate timeline report said the bill still needs coordination between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees before a final floor vote can begin. The report also said disputes over conflict-of-interest language, stablecoin rules, illicit finance provisions and floor time remain unresolved.

Grayscale’s view is that a successful vote could reduce policy risk and support the next phase of institutional participation. A delay would leave the market without the clear rulebook many investors expected this year. For Bitcoin, that means regulation remains tied to price sentiment, especially while risk appetite stays weak.

Fed hikes and Strategy risks weigh on BTC

The Fed is the second major risk in Grayscale’s downside case. Recent coverage on rate-hike risk showed Citadel Securities warning that the Fed could raise rates as early as September 2026 if inflation remains firm. Another report said the Fed’s June projections shifted away from rate cuts, with several officials now seeing hikes before year-end.

Higher rates can weigh on Bitcoin because the asset does not pay yield. A stronger dollar and higher real yields make cash and Treasuries more attractive for some investors. That has already pressured Bitcoin and gold this year, with recent analysis showing both assets under stress during a stronger-dollar and higher-rate environment.

Strategy also remains central to the market’s risk view. A recent report said Strategy’s position moved about $12 billion below cost after Bitcoin fell below $60,000, while MSTR traded below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Another analysis said the company’s Bitcoin flywheel began to reverse as its stock premium weakened and financing became harder.

Grayscale’s scenario does not call for a full repeat of past bear markets. It frames the next move around policy, rates and balance-sheet stress. If CLARITY passes, Strategy steadies its finances and the Fed stays on hold, Bitcoin may already be close to its low. If those factors move the other way, Grayscale says more moderate downside remains possible.

Crypto market participants are entering July with a critical shift in Europe as the MiCA framework’s transitional period expires. Exchanges are now competing to lure in Binance users in the region after the firm failed to secure a license.

On top of that, investors will see new product reveals from Robinhood, in an event where CEO Vlad Tenev is speaking alongside the company’s general manager for crypto, Johann Kerbrat.

There is also a packed week of U.S. macroeconomic data, including employment and manufacturing reports, while potential black swan events surrounding geopolitics could also help shape the market’s direction.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • July 1: Transitional period for the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework expires.
  • July 1: Robinhood (HOOD) to hold product reveal event titled “The World is Flat.”
  • July 2: Tokenization firm Securitize to start trading on NYSE after SPAC merger.
• Macro
  • June 30, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. House Price Index YoY for April (Prev. 1.7%)
  • June 30, 10:00 a.m: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for May est. 7.28M (Prev. 7.618M)
  • July 1, 5:00 a.m: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash for June est. 3% (Prev. 3.2%)
  • July 1, 8:15 a.m: U.S. ADP Employment Change for June est. 118K (Prev. 122K)
  • July 1, 9:00 a.m: U.S. Fed Chair Warsh speaks at European Central Bank Forum
  • July 1, 10:00 a.m: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for June est. 53,7 (Prev. 54)
  • July 2, 8:30 a.m: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June est. 114K (Prev. 172K)
  • July 2, 8:30 a.m: U.S. unemployment rate for June est. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • July 2, 8:30 a.m: U.S. initial jobless claims for period ending June 27 est. 220K (Prev. 215K)
  • July 2, 4:30 p.m: U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for July 1 (Prev. $6.736T)
• Earnings

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Aave DAO AAVE$91.43 is voting on upgrading the Pendle PT risk oracle stack to an automated pipeline. Voting ends on June 30.
  • Arbitrum (ARB) is voting on narrowing Arbitrum Gaming Ventures (AGV) to exclusively manage its existing portfolio. The proposal seeks DAO approval to terminate forward investment activity and return surplus capital to the DAO treasury for redeployment. Voting ends on July 2.
  • GHST$0.05854 is voting on transferring the intellectual property of the protocol from Pixelcraft Studios to the AavegotchiDAO Foundation. Voting ends on July 4.
  • Redbelly Networm (RBNT) is voting on temporarily suspending the operational activities of the Redbelly Community DAO until the broader ecosystem reaches greater maturity. Voting ends on July 4.
• Unlocks
  • EigenCloud (EIGEN) to unlock 2.91% of its circulating supply worth $8.44 million.
  • M$0.5970 to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $36.25 million.
• Token launches

Conferences

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $60,000 level heading into the weekend, as technical traders point to cooling volatility and renewed momentum signals on multiple time frames. The move comes with renewed comparisons to late-2022, when similar relative strength patterns preceded a major shift in market direction.

Despite pockets of bullish read-through, some traders continue to expect another leg lower—framing any recovery as potentially temporary unless key resistance levels hold. For market participants, the immediate question is whether $60,000 can flip from a ceiling back into dependable support.

Key takeaways

• Traders using TradingView data cite a developing RSI bullish divergence as price struggles below recent levels.
• Analysis highlights higher RSI swing lows on the four-hour chart alongside lower price lows, a pattern often associated with improving downside momentum.
• Weekly RSI divergence is being compared to a 2022 setup that preceded Bitcoin’s durable bear-market floor near $15,600.
• Some analysts still project further downside, potentially extending into August, even if a relief bounce occurs sooner.
• Commentary from analysts suggests $60,000 is being defended, but it remains unclear whether that defense can withstand a confirmed trend reversal.

RSI divergence draws renewed 2022 parallels

According to TradingView charting, BTC/USD has shown signs of “cooling” volatility after returning above $60,000. On the hourly time frame, market observers noted a sequence of higher swing lows paired with relative strength index (RSI) readings that suggest selling pressure may be easing.

The more widely circulated signal, however, is on the four-hour chart. A bullish divergence appears to be forming when RSI prints higher lows while price makes lower lows—an arrangement traders interpret as a potential shift in the balance between buyers and sellers.

Pseudonymous trader Rod explicitly framed the situation as history repeating itself, pairing current signals with how RSI behavior changed during the 2022 bear market. In a post on X, Rod wrote: “It’s 2022 again,” aligning the current backdrop with the earlier period when RSI divergence preceded a durable base.

What traders point to from the 2022 bear-market setup

In the 2022 episode cited by traders, a weekly RSI bullish divergence coincided with Bitcoin establishing its bear-market low near $15,600. That low later functioned as a lasting market floor, reinforcing the idea—at least for technical analysts—that multi-time-frame RSI divergence can matter when the broader downtrend starts to lose momentum.

More recently, four-hour RSI levels fell to around 11.4 at the start of June, according to the same chart-based commentary. That reading is described as one of the lowest levels on record, underscoring that RSI has already tested extreme oversold conditions before bouncing back toward the $60,000 area.

Daily confirmations and the debate over next support

On Friday, crypto analyst Lukasz Wydra added daily perspective to the ongoing RSI discussion. According to his post on X, the bullish RSI divergence has been “officially confirmed,” though he cautioned that it could still deepen before any sustained recovery takes hold.

Wydra characterized the RSI development as an “encouraging sign,” while also pointing to what he described as continued defense of the price by Binance. The core takeaway for traders: even if divergence signals are improving, confirmation through price action still determines whether buyers can hold the current range.

For investors and traders, this distinction is critical. RSI divergence can indicate changing momentum, but without a follow-through move—such as reclaiming and holding major resistance—markets can remain prone to “false starts” where dips resume after brief bounces.

Calls for $55,000 and the risk that relief fades in August

Not all participants are comfortable treating $60,000 as a turning point. Niels Klaver, cofounder of STABL Agency, reiterated expectations for Bitcoin to visit around $55,000 “before any big move” in his post on X. His view implies that a larger downside objective could still be ahead even if RSI-based signals continue to improve.

Similarly, trader and analyst Rekt Capital suggested the market could experience a relief bounce next month, arguing that July tends to behave differently than June. But he also tied the follow-up to a key mechanical level: once BTC/USD confirms the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) as new resistance, Rekt Capital expects “August cancellation of relief and additional downside” linked to weakening around $60,000 support, as described in his weekly update on X.

Under this framework, the near-term path would be less about a straight reversal and more about a sequence: a bounce first, then renewed pressure if resistance levels prevent buyers from sustaining higher prices. That view matches the broader tension in the current technical narrative—RSI divergence hints at improving momentum, while other chart targets suggest further downside risk remains active.

What to watch next

Traders should focus on whether Bitcoin can hold $60,000 after testing it, and whether RSI improvements translate into sustained breakouts rather than short-lived mean reversion. The next decisive clues are likely to come from how BTC reacts to the highest-probability resistance levels highlighted by analysts and whether downside projections from $55,000 toward later-month scenarios gain confirmation.