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Short-sighted stock market can no longer brush off war, investors say

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled on Thursday as investors began to price in the consequences of a renewed and prolonged conflict in the Middle East. 

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While the U.S. has conducted strikes against Iran 12 nights in a row — sending both oil prices and Treasury yields higher — domestic equities had mostly brushed off the idea of the war between the two countries heating up again, staying flat while oil jumped. 

That changed on Thursday, though, when Brent Crude futures jumped above $100 per barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, hitting its highest level since January 2025, after reports of attacks against tankers off the coast of Saudi Arabia. The S&P 500 headed for its biggest decline in a month.

Oil prices and S&P 500

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“These problems became too big to ignore,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, about the move in stocks on Thursday. “It’s too hard to ignore $100 oil. It’s too hard to ignore 10-year rates that are above 4.70%. It’s too hard for the stock market to ignore 30-year rates that are solidly above 5%.”

Western Texas Intermediate Crude futures jumped 6% to $92 per barrel, up more than 28% from lows below $70 per barrel they hit earlier this month. The S&P 500 is now down about 2% since the consecutive evening strikes by the U.S. began on July 12. 

In March, after the U.S-Iran war began, the S&P 500 fell more than 7.5% at its low point as oil surged nearly 70% and investors worried about stagflation, where higher energy prices would reignite inflation while elevated costs at the gas pump would weigh on consumer spending. 

A series of de-escalation announcements between the two countries and a reignited faith in the artificial intelligence trade led the S&P to ferociously rebound in April and May, even as hostilities at various times continued.

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Betting on Trump’s off-ramp

The big factor, however, was a bet that President Donald Trump would find an off-ramp to end the war rather than face the economic and political consequences of a prolonged conflict. 

“We have consistently argued since 2nd half of March to use the equity weakness brought on by the Iran conflict to buy into, as the off-ramp and the eventual deal were likely, in our view,” wrote JPMorgan equity strategists in a note earlier this month. “The risks of renewed flareups remain, but we believe one should keep using any dips on the back of adverse geopolitical headlines in order to add.”

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S&P 500 since Feb. 27, 2026

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Dramatic jump in AI ETFs despite rough quarter

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JPMorgan’s new 'Guide to ETFs'
JPMorgan’s new 'Guide to ETFs'

Wall Street is banking heavily on exchange-traded funds that give investors artificial intelligence exposure, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

The firm’s “Guide to ETFs,” which came out this month, finds it’s a top five theme by assets under management — even as volatility hit the group in the second quarter.

“Many [themes] are morphing towards AI and the ecosystem surrounding AI,” Jon Maier, the firm’s chief ETF strategist, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

Maier, who led the insights team that published the report, also highlighted an overlapping relationship between AI-themed ETFs and infrastructure.

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“It’s all kind of feeding into the AI story … the applications, the energy [and] the AI models,” he said.

Go with the flow? ETFs vs. mutual funds

JPMorgan’s Guide to ETFs also found that mutual fund overall inflows are meaningfully tapering off while more money is flowing into ETFs.

“That’s only going to continue,” said Maier, who added the report’s data showed negative inflows into mutual funds overall during the past several years.

He also suggests that ETFs have become more attractive to retail investors because of the tax benefits.

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“They typically don’t pay a capital gain [tax],” he said.

Maier contends mutual funds are a different story.

“Imagine if you bought a mutual fund in 2022 and you’re down 20%, 30%, 40%, depending on what part of the market you bought, and you still got a capital gain of 6%. You’re not happy,” he said.

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Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Hacked, Exploiter Makes $1.2 Million Promoting Fake Token

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Robinhood CEO’s X Hacked to Push 'Scam' Memecoin on Robinhood Chain. Source: Vlad Tenev's Account

Hackers took over the X account of Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on Thursday. They used it to push a new crypto coin, Vladhood (VLAD), that has already been flagged as a likely scam.

The fake post called VLAD the official mascot of Robinhood Chain. It even said the coin would be listed in the Robinhood app.

Inside the Robinhood CEO X Account Hack

Robinhood’s own accounts stayed silent. So did Robinhood Crypto. That was the first clue the post was fake.

The message started with a question. Does Robinhood love memes? It answered yes, then shared the coin’s address and signed off, “Welcome to the Hood.”

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Robinhood CEO’s X Hacked to Push 'Scam' Memecoin on Robinhood Chain. Source: Vlad Tenev's Account
Robinhood CEO’s X Hacked to Push ‘Scam’ Meme coin on Robinhood Chain. Source: Vlad Tenev’s Account

The post has since been deleted.

A blockchain tracker for Robinhood Chain marks the coin as a likely scam. The token holds no real money. It has changed hands about 1,868 times since launch.

According to on-chain monitoring by MLM, the attacker generated around 650 ETH in proceeds from the VLAD token, worth approximately $1.2 million to $1.3 million.

Scams like this keep hitting the network. Reports of rug pulls have multiplied. The trick is not new. A fake coin named after Coinbase boss Brian Armstrong crashed this month, a lesson about trusting posts from executive accounts.

Meme Coins Keep Testing Robinhood Chain

Robinhood Chain went live on July 1. It is a new blockchain that Robinhood built on Ethereum. The company wants it to power tokenized stocks and other real-world assets.

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But memecoins took over fast. The network now handles millions of trades a day. Risky meme coins drive most of it, and recently pushed it to record trading volume. Total trading has topped roughly $9 billion, according to Entropy Advisors.

One coin, the Cash Cat meme coin, has led the pack. Some experts worry this meme coin trading boom could hurt Robinhood’s bigger plans for tokenized stocks.

Tenev has welcomed the fun. He once posted that the chain “works great for memes too.” Now that same hype has been turned against him.

The post Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Hacked, Exploiter Makes $1.2 Million Promoting Fake Token appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bernstein Says Bitcoin Mining Deals are Necessary for AI Power Crunch

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Bernstein Says Bitcoin Mining Deals are Necessary for AI Power Crunch

Bernstein said that it remains overweight on the Bitcoin mining sector, citing the growing partnerships between Bitcoin mining companies that are necessary to address the power constraints of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

The investment manager’s Bitcoin mining industry deal tracker registered a new AI-related deal every week in July, with combined deals standing at more than 7.5 gigawatts or the contracted equivalent of $150 billion in multi-year contracts, according to a Thursday research note shared with Cointelegraph. 

The analysts said that third-party computing capacity from Bitcoin miners will remain highly valuable as access to power remains the AI industry’s real bottleneck amid growing political pushback against building new US data centers.

Bitcoin mining stocks logged double-digit gains on Monday after Bitcoin mining companies Hut 8 and IREN announced major AI infrastructure deals. Hut 8 announced a 15-year, $9.8 billion lease for its AI data center campus and IREN disclosed $2.8 billion in cloud services contracts with AI developers.

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“IREN is beginning to convert that infrastructure advantage into contracted and more predictable revenue,” said Seeking Alpha contributor The Curious Analyst on Thursday. “The biggest risk to my thesis is execution,” they said. The contributor rates IREN a strong buy.

July sees slew of AI-miner tie-ups

Other publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies have also expanded into AI.  Earlier in July, MARA Holdings announced plans to acquire a Texas site with up to 2 gigawatts of capacity to expand its AI and digital infrastructure business. 

Days earlier, TeraWulf signed a 20-year data center lease with AI startup Anthropic, a deal the company said could generate roughly $19 billion in contract revenue. 

Bitcoin mining infrastructure company Bitdeer has also expanded into AI cloud services and high-performance computing. 

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Most of the miner stocks were poised for gains on Thursday, based on premarket activity. HUT 8’s shares were up 5.23%, IREN was up 1.89% and TeraWulf was up 1.49%. Sector tracking exchange-traded fund CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) was up 1.47% ahead of the Nasdaq open. Bernstein has an outperform rating on all of the stocks it named, except for MARA, which it rates as market perform.

Related: Foundry asks Bitcoin miners to vote on BIP-110 support

AI data centers face political pushback

Bernstein’s research note said that Bitcoin miners and third-party computing power providers will remain important for AI companies, as the construction of new data centers is facing growing bipartisan political pushback.

On Wednesday, Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico reportedly shared a proposal to create stronger local approval processes and to repeal tax breaks for AI data centers.

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In April, US Senator Ron Wyden shared concerns that AI data centers in his home state of Oregon could worsen water scarcity during persistent droughts. He said that large data centers can consume up to 5 million gallons of water per day and asked large data center operators to explain how they would reduce groundwater withdrawals to protect the local water supply.

In March, President Donald Trump’s administration published a Ratepayer Protection Pledge aiming to expand AI infrastructure without increasing electricity bills for households and small businesses.

In January, several state governors published plans to expand the grid to meet the rapidly growing demand from AI data centers, but stated that new data centers should bear the costs they create, rather than shifting these to existing residential customers and small businesses.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma: Bigger blocks or STARK proofs?

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Ethereum Nears Market bottom vs Bitcoin

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Ethereum Nears Market bottom vs Bitcoin

Ether is becoming increasingly attractive from a valuation standpoint, particularly relative to Bitcoin, but onchain data suggests the market has yet to reach a definitive cycle bottom, according to CryptoQuant.

In its latest weekly report, the analytics company said Ether (ETH) is trading roughly 17% below its realized price, or the average onchain acquisition cost of all ETH in circulation, of about $2,300. Historically, ETH trading below its realized price has coincided with periods of market undervaluation and long-term bottoms.

Ether is also showing signs of improving relative to Bitcoin (BTC). CryptoQuant said that ETH’s market value-to-realized value (MVRV) ratio has retreated from extreme overvaluation, exchange inflows have declined, exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings have begun to recover after months of weakness, and ETH/BTC spot trading volumes have fallen into a range historically associated with market bottoms.

CryptoQuant says two of five key ETH bottoming indicators have been confirmed. Source: CryptoQuant

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Even so, only two of CryptoQuant’s five bottoming indicators have reached historical reversal levels. The remaining metrics are improving but have yet to reach the extremes that have marked previous cycle lows, suggesting Ethereum’s bottom may still be forming.

The report comes as Ether briefly climbed above $1,950 this week and Bitcoin topped $67,000, buoyed by optimism surrounding the US CLARITY Act. At the same time, some market analysts have pointed to the potential for capital to rotate out of richly valued AI stocks and back into crypto, a shift that could further support Ether if risk appetite broadens.

The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has fallen from nearly 0.95 in August 2025 to around 0.65, signaling that Ethereum has become significantly cheaper relative to Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Grayscale plans regular cash payouts from ETH, SOL staking rewards

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Ethereum supply tightens as exchange outflows and staking climb

Ethereum has shown several constructive onchain signals over the past month. During the week beginning June 29, withdrawal activity on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, climbed to its highest level in more than three years.

Analysts generally interpret sustained exchange outflows as a sign that investors are moving assets into self-custody or staking rather than keeping them on exchanges for potential sale, although such flows do not guarantee accumulation.

Meanwhile, a record 34% of Ethereum’s circulating supply is now staked, according to Staking Rewards. As Cointelegraph previously reported, higher staking participation reduces the amount of ETH readily available for trading, potentially easing short-term selling pressure if demand remains resilient.

Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the biggest corporate ETH holder, continues to accumulate Ether, boosting its holdings by 325,000 ETH over a one-month period, despite sitting on large unrealized losses. It has set a target to hold 5% of the second-biggest crypto.

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Related: Will the US get CLARITY this week? Bitcoin’s new $80K target: Hodler’s Digest, July 19

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Robinhood CEO’s X account hacked in apparent memecoin scam

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Robinhood CEO’s X account hacked in apparent memecoin scam

Robinhood CEO’s X account hacked in apparent memecoin scam

A hacker reportedly took over Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev’s X account to promote a fake “VLAD” memecoin, posting what appeared to be a malicious token contract address.

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Cathie Wood buys $14M Circle dip as CRCL stock tests key support

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CRCL daily chart shows the stock below major moving averages despite improving MACD momentum.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has purchased 220,012 Circle Internet Group shares worth about $13.9 million as CRCL stock has fallen below $64 and every major daily moving average.

Summary

  • ARK Invest purchased 220,012 Circle shares worth about $13.9 million during CRCL’s decline.
  • CLARITY Act progress could improve regulatory certainty for Circle and other digital-asset companies.
  • CRCL remains below major moving averages despite an improving daily MACD signal.

According to ARK Invest’s trading disclosure, the firm divided the purchase among three actively managed exchange-traded funds. The ARK Innovation ETF acquired 159,517 shares, while the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF added 42,400 and 18,095 shares, respectively.

The transaction extended ARK’s buying during a steep decline in Circle’s market value. CRCL traded at $63.38 on July 23 after falling 4.20%, with the session producing a high of $65.41 and a low of $61.49, according to the daily TradingView chart.

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Circle’s stock has struggled as weaker sentiment toward crypto-linked companies has reduced investors’ willingness to hold volatile digital-asset equities. Circle operates USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin used across exchanges, payment services and decentralized finance applications.

Wood’s purchase suggests ARK remains willing to increase its exposure during the decline, although the investment manager has not guaranteed that CRCL has reached a bottom. ARK describes its investment approach as focused on companies tied to disruptive technologies and long-term growth, a strategy that can leave its funds exposed to sharp price swings.

Earlier this week, ARK used a similar approach with another high-volatility holding. As reported by crypto.news, four ARK funds purchased 170,634 SpaceX shares worth about $20.45 million while the stock traded below its $135 initial public offering price.

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SpaceX then climbed 7.10% to $128.37, handing ARK an early unrealized profit on the new position, according to the crypto.news report. Although SpaceX and Circle operate in different industries, the transactions show ARK adding to selected companies after large declines rather than waiting for their charts to confirm a recovery.

CLARITY Act progress offers Circle a regulatory catalyst

Circle’s outlook has also become tied to negotiations over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which could establish federal rules for digital-asset markets and divide regulatory responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Senator Cynthia Lummis released an updated version of the legislation on July 22, combining texts advanced by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees. In her announcement, Lummis described the coming weeks as a critical window for reaching an agreement that could allow the bill to become law.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman have backed the revised framework. According to Lummis’ official release, Boozman argued that the proposal would give consumers, companies and markets clearer rules while adding safeguards for digital-asset activity.

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For Circle, passage could reduce uncertainty surrounding businesses that issue stablecoins or provide related financial services. Such an outcome may make it easier for institutions to assess USDC-based products, but the proposal still requires enough Senate support and final approval before its provisions can take effect.

The latest draft faces political obstacles despite Republican support. Some Democrats have reportedly objected to the proposal’s treatment of crypto-related conflicts involving government officials, an issue that could complicate efforts to secure the 60 votes generally needed to advance legislation in the Senate.

CRCL remains bearish despite improving MACD momentum

CRCL’s daily chart shows that sellers still control the main trend even though one momentum indicator has started to improve. At $63.38, the stock sits below its 20-day simple moving average at $65.68, while the 50-day average is much higher at $84.24.

CRCL daily chart shows the stock below major moving averages despite improving MACD momentum.
Circle daily price chart | Source: TradingView

Longer-term resistance remains even further away. The chart places the 100-day moving average at $95.02 and the 200-day average at $92.14, leaving CRCL below all four trend indicators after a decline from its May peak near $140.

A recent rebound reached the $70–$72 region but failed to hold, according to the chart. Buyers would first need to recover the 20-day average at $65.68 before challenging that recent rejection zone. A daily close above $72 would provide stronger evidence that demand is returning, while the 50-day average at $84.24 would remain the next major obstacle.

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On the downside, the July 23 intraday low places immediate support near $61.50. The chart also shows a demand area between $58 and $60, where buyers previously interrupted the decline. A sustained move below $58 would extend the sequence of lower lows and leave CRCL vulnerable to another leg down.

Momentum has offered one early sign of relief. The daily moving average convergence divergence line has risen to minus 4.74, above its signal line at minus 6.10, while the histogram has turned positive at 1.36.

Because both MACD lines remain below zero, the chart indicates that selling momentum has eased without confirming a trend reversal. Until CRCL recovers $65.68 and then $70–$72, ARK’s latest purchase remains a bet against an established downtrend rather than confirmation that Circle stock has formed a durable bottom.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Analyst: Bitcoin Stuck Near $65K Because Capital Is Flowing to AI

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Bitcoin is stuck near $65,000, and trader Wise Crypto thinks AI spending is a big part of why.

The OG crypto poked above $66,000 earlier this week before losing steam, and the pattern points to money chasing AI stocks instead of crypto while inflation and bond yields keep pressure on risk assets.

Where the Money Is Actually Going

Wise Crypto laid out the case on X Thursday, noting that while spot Bitcoin ETFs have had seven consecutive days of inflows that have raked in just under $1 billion, the number was a small one next to the $6.9 billion that left those same funds in May and June.

Meanwhile, Big Tech is spending somewhere between $190 billion and $205 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with Nvidia’s data center revenue up 92% year over year, and AI-linked stocks have climbed roughly 69% since January. Bitcoin, over that same stretch, is down about 25%.

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“Capital is flowing to AI, not crypto,” Wise Crypto wrote, pointing to two-year Treasury yields near 4.3% and ten-year yields near 4.6% as the forces keeping the dollar strong and investors cautious on risk assets.

The price data backs up the stall, as BTC was trading around $65,400 at the time of writing, down 0.6% on the day, after swinging between about $65,300 and $66,300 in the last 24 hours and between $62,500 and $66,900 over the past week. It is still up close to 5% across 30 days but sits roughly 45% below its all-time-high near $126,000 from last October.

“BTC needs lower inflation, falling yields & stronger demand to break $60K-$70K range,” claimed Wise Crypto.

Another market watcher, Ted Pillows, writing in his Thursday market report, pointed to Brent crude being near $94 a barrel after another round of US-Iran strikes, along with a ten-year TIPS real yield of about 2.31%, a post-pandemic high, as the direct drag on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin right now.

“I’d rather watch $64,000 get defended than chase a run back toward $66,500,” he said.

The Technical Levels Traders Are Watching

Michaël van de Poppe has said Bitcoin has already reached its target area, and that holding above the 21-day moving average keeps the door open for near-term gains, with $68,000 marking the next resistance zone and a break above it potentially opening a run to $73,000.

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Fellow analyst Axel Adler noted that ETFs have taken in $439 million so far this week, while the so-called Coinbase discount, running for 78 days now, has started to narrow.

Further out, EGRAG CRYPTO flagged a developing double bottom pattern that would need a weekly close above $83,000 to gain traction, with $173,000 the eventual target if the setup plays out, though a weekly close below roughly $51,000 would invalidate it.

A similar reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300 was pointed to by Bitfinex analysts, who also noted that short-term holders who bought in that range tend to sell once they recover their original positions, a pattern that has capped rallies before and could do so again if $68,000 comes back into play.

The post Analyst: Bitcoin Stuck Near $65K Because Capital Is Flowing to AI appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Tassat wants to help smaller banks tap the stablecoin boom before big banks lock them out

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Tassat wants to help smaller banks tap the stablecoin boom before big banks lock them out

The announcement comes as stablecoins move further into mainstream finance following the passage of the GENIUS Act. Wall Street firms and banks are expanding stablecoin initiatives, while Citi projects the market could reach roughly $4 trillion by 2030.

At that scale, Sussman said, concentrating reserves among a few institutions could create liquidity and deposit risks.

“If you assume stablecoins scale to $5 trillion or $10 trillion, then there has to be something that helps the market reach equilibrium,” Sussman said. “It can’t just live in a really small circle because that will compound the risk on both sides.”

The platform itself will not run on a blockchain, though Tassat plans to connect it with tokenized asset and deposit networks. Sussman said that approach lowers the technical burden for smaller banks.

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“There is a real risk that vast swaths of the U.S. banking ecosystem get left out in the cold,” he said. “I don’t think that’s healthy politically for the United States. I don’t think it’s healthy economically.”

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Goldman Sachs CEO Endorses “Not Perfect” CLARITY Act Ahead of Vote

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Crypto Breaking News

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has voiced support for a US Senate bill intended to reshape crypto market structure, arguing that the proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act is “not perfect” but could help create a more consistent framework for participants.

According to a Thursday report by Politico, Solomon framed the legislation as necessary to establish a “level playing field” that could improve market stability as digital asset markets continue to develop.

Key takeaways

  • David Solomon says the CLARITY Act is “not perfect,” but supports it for creating a more “level playing field” to bolster stability.
  • Many industry leaders oppose the bill’s approach, including concerns that it would allow certain crypto firms to pay yield related to stablecoins outside existing financial-institution rules.
  • Republicans released the CLARITY Act text ahead of a potential Senate vote, but Senate leaders had not scheduled timing as of Thursday.
  • Democrats and critics highlighted ethics provisions, with objections centered on enforcement and accountability mechanisms.
  • The bill likely requires additional Democratic votes to reach the Senate’s 60-vote threshold.

Solomon’s “level playing field” argument

In comments reported by Politico, Solomon emphasized that legislation is rarely flawless, but maintained that CLARITY’s central purpose is to normalize how digital asset markets operate—at least relative to how traditional finance is regulated.

His view stands in contrast to broader skepticism within parts of traditional banking circles, where executives have questioned whether CLARITY expands regulatory permission in ways that could weaken investor and depositor protections.

Politico’s report also notes that Solomon’s endorsement is relatively uncommon among leaders at major financial institutions considering the bill.

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Banking concerns over stablecoin yield permissions

A key point of contention involves whether crypto firms would be allowed to offer interest or yield on stablecoins under rules that critics say do not map cleanly to the protections expected of regulated financial institutions.

Earlier coverage highlighted that many peers oppose the bill on these grounds, arguing that the proposal’s stablecoin yield approach does not provide the guardrails banks would be expected to meet. Cointelegraph previously reported on these concerns.

The contrast in views is also reflected in remarks from JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon. As reported in an interview conducted in May, Dimon said CLARITY would let crypto companies pay interest on stablecoins “without the protection that they should have,” arguing that banks would not accept a similar arrangement. The interview was shared on YouTube.

Democrats focus on ethics provisions and enforcement

Even as the CLARITY Act moves toward a possible Senate vote, Democratic lawmakers have signaled resistance—not only on technical market-structure issues, but also on ethics language attached to the bill.

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As described in reporting from Cointelegraph and subsequent commentary, Democrats are concerned that the ethics provisions do not go far enough and that enforcement would be left to the US Department of Justice rather than state authorities. If Republicans are unable to secure enough support beyond their ranks, the bill could stall at the 60-vote threshold required to advance in the Senate.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, a leading Democratic critic, said in a statement released alongside the Wednesday publication of the bill text that she believes the legislation is designed to protect President Donald Trump’s crypto profits and that it fails to adequately safeguard investors, the financial system, and national security. The statement was posted by the Senate Banking Committee’s minority.

Cointelegraph earlier also reported on Democrats’ objections to the ethics language during the markup process, underscoring how these provisions have become a central political obstacle for CLARITY. Earlier coverage details the core Democratic concerns.

What happens next in the Senate

Republicans released the full CLARITY Act text on Wednesday, setting the stage for potential Senate action. However, as of Thursday, Senate leaders had not scheduled a vote, according to the Politico report.

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With multiple factions still divided—particularly over stablecoin yield permissions and ethics/enforcement mechanics—the immediate question for investors and market operators is whether amendments can narrow the gap between competing priorities or whether the bill will face a larger momentum reversal.

Readers should watch for whether Senate leaders set a vote date soon and, more importantly, whether any compromise emerges that could attract enough Democratic support to meet the 60-vote threshold—since the bill’s advancement appears tightly linked to both ethics politics and the future regulatory treatment of stablecoin-related yield.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Odds surge for hike as oil rips higher

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A television station broadcasts Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Investors are increasingly preparing for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates as oil prices climb.

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Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 82% likelihood that the central bank lifts borrowing costs at its September policy meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. A week ago, those odds sat below 53%.

The central bank is still broadly expected to keep rates unchanged at the current 3.50% to 3.75% at its gathering next week. But even then, there’s a growing minority planning for an increase: Fed funds futures trading indicates a nearly 38% probability of a quarter percentage point hike, up from less than 12% a week ago.

Brent, the global crude benchmark, hit $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since late May amid a new round of tit-for-tat attacks between the U.S. and Iran. The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. reached $4 per gallon this week — the highest in more than a month, according to AAA.

Thursday’s employment data bolstered the view that the Fed can focus more on inflation — which could accelerate as energy prices climb — than the health of the labor market.

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Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the Labor Department reported. That was the fewest claims since 1969, when the U.S. population was 60% of what it is today.

“At the moment, the outlook for economic growth is showing some signs of overheating if today’s weekly jobless claims figures can be believed,” said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “But for how long is the question if energy prices continue to spiral upward.”

Rising expectations for a rate increase may be adding to the downward pressure on the stock market Thursday, according to Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. That’s on top of the breakout in oil prices and Treasury yields, and Alphabet‘s post-earnings swoon, he said.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 600 points in midday trading. The Nasdaq Composite — heavily weighted to technology stocks that can be sensitive to higher borrowing costs — shed nearly 3%.

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“You really just have a perfect storm of headwinds right now,” Tentarelli said.

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The Nasdaq Composite, 1-day

“We’ve got a Fed meeting in six days, and I think investors should not be in a hurry to buy anything,” he added. “There’s times where you can just sit it out and be patient.”

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‘A readthrough’

Market participants looking for insights into the Fed’s outlook are closely monitoring the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. The yield, which rose more than 6 basis points on Thursday, offers “a readthrough on what the Fed might do next,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird.

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U.S. 2-year Treasury, 1-month

While Mayfield said investors don’t need to worry about an interest rate move next week, September feels like a “live” meeting for the Fed.

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Kalshi traders have similarly increased their bets of a September quarter point increase in recent days. Odds of such a move at that meeting rose to 48% midday on Thursday, up from about 30% a week ago.

To be sure, economists’ interest rate outlook through 2026 doesn’t signal an environment with tighter monetary policy.

The consensus forecast remains that the Fed won’t hike rates this year, according to FactSet. In 2027, economists anticipate the central bank will lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point.

— With additional reporting by CNBC’s Sean Conlon

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