South Korea’s crypto market faced a pronounced slowdown over the past year, with a steep decline in investor holdings and a sharp drop in daily liquidity on the nation’s leading exchanges. New data summarized from the Bank of Korea and reported by local media shows that the total value of crypto assets held by Korean investors fell by more than half—from 121.8 trillion won at the end of January 2025 to 60.6 trillion won by the end of February 2026. Trading activity across the five largest exchanges also contracted dramatically, as daily volumes slid to about $3 billion in February, down from roughly $11.6 billion in December 2024. At the same time, the amount of won deposited on exchanges—a proxy for dry powder—dropped from 10.7 trillion won at the end of 2024 to 7.8 trillion won. The pace of decline has been linked to falling crypto prices and capital that shifted into the stock market, according to the report cited by The Chosun Daily, which referenced Bank of Korea data submitted to Rep. Cha Gyu-geun of the Rebuilding Korea Party.

Amid the broad market pullback, stablecoins stood out as a relative outlier. Korean investors increased their stablecoin holdings earlier in the period, with stablecoin exposure rising from about $60 million in July 2024 to a peak near $597 million in December, before easing to around $41 million by February 2026. The trajectory suggests a flight to liquidity that outpaced the broader crypto downturn, a pattern seen in several markets where issuers and users lean on stablecoins to manage volatility and on-ramp liquidity to exchanges during tougher conditions.

Key takeaways

• Investor exposure to crypto in South Korea more than halved over the year, dropping from 121.8 trillion won at end-January 2025 to 60.6 trillion won by end-February 2026.
• Trading liquidity on the five largest exchanges—Upbit, Bithumb, Korbit, Coinone and Gopax—collapsed to about $3 billion in February 2026, down from $11.6 billion in December 2024.
• On-exchange won deposits shrank from 10.7 trillion won to 7.8 trillion won, signaling thinner dry powder among investors amid price pressures and asset reallocation to equities.
• Stablecoins showed resilience, rising to a peak around $597 million in December 2024 before retreating to roughly $41 million by February 2026.
• Regulators plan to tighten AML rules in August to flag crypto transactions above 10 million won involving overseas exchanges or private wallets as suspicious, a move opposed by the local industry.

Market dynamics under tighter regulation

Policy developments are shaping the near-term trajectory of Korea’s crypto market. Regulators have set a course for more stringent anti-money laundering (AML) scrutiny, with August slated as the effective date for the revised regime. Under the proposed framework, crypto transactions exceeding 10 million won that involve overseas venues or private wallets would automatically trigger flags for further review. The tightening aims to curb illicit flows but has sparked concern within the domestic ecosystem about potential operational bottlenecks and the risk of pushing users toward offshore exchanges.

Industry group Digital Asset Exchange Association (DAXA) has publicly questioned the approach, arguing that the proposed rule is disproportionate and could drive activity to offshore platforms like Binance. DAXA warned that the plan could elevate the number of suspicious transaction reports from South Korea’s five largest exchanges by as much as 85-fold—rising from roughly 63,000 cases in the previous year to more than 5.4 million—creating practical compliance challenges for firms. The debate underscores a broader tension between ambitious regulatory oversight and the desire to maintain a functional, domestic market for digital assets. For background, Cointelegraph has covered the pushback from industry groups on the 10 million won reporting rule.

Beyond AML, South Korea is also navigating the political calculus around crypto taxation. The government has confirmed that a 22% tax on crypto gains will take effect on January 1, 2027, as scheduled. The tax plan remains a divisive topic in policy circles, with supporters citing revenue opportunities and critics warning it could dampen participation and innovation in the sector. The Finance Ministry’s confirmation adds a sense of inevitability to the tax policy, even as market participants weigh how the regime will be implemented and enforced across exchanges and wallets.

Infrastructure moves ahead of a new framework

In a separate but related strand, the government’s broader effort to modernize market infrastructure for tokenized assets appears to be moving forward. Samsung SDS has secured a contract to build and operate a blockchain-based securities platform for South Korea’s Korea Securities Depository (KSD). The project is designed to support tokenized securities on a national scale and is slated for completion by February 2027, aligning with the wider legal and regulatory shifts anticipated in early 2027. The development signals a push to establish robust, on-chain settlement and custody capabilities as the market transitions toward tokenized assets within a regulated framework. This milestone sits within a broader push to upgrade financial market infrastructure before new rules come fully into force.

Naturally, these regulatory and infrastructural moves intersect with the risk and reward calculus facing investors, traders and builders in Korea. They could incentivize greater compliance and transparency in the near term, while also presenting compliance burdens that may influence where and how trading occurs. Market participants will be watching closely how AML enforcement evolves in August, how the 22% tax is operationalized, and how the Samsung-led platform influences custody and settlement workflows for tokenized assets.

For ongoing context, readers can find related coverage noting Korea’s regulatory and market developments, including coverage of recent crypto-asset enforcement actions and tax policy discussions. The evolving landscape is also reflected in industry data on exchange volumes and holdings, as cited by local outlets aggregating central-bank and regulatory data. CoinGecko’s data on exchange rankings across Korea has historically illustrated how liquidity concentrates among a handful of platforms, a dynamic that could shift as regulation and routing rules change.

As the summer progresses, market observers will look for signs of how domestic users respond to the tightening AML regime, whether capital migrates to compliant, domestic venues or spills into offshore platforms, and how institutional-grade on-chain infrastructure evolves to support a tokenized asset regime. The coming months will also reveal how the tax policy is implemented in practice and what that implies for retail and institutional participation in South Korea’s crypto markets.

What remains uncertain is the pace at which regulators will balance enforcement with market vitality, and how quickly industry participants can adapt to a more transparent, compliant environment while maintaining access to liquidity and innovative financial products. Investors and builders alike should monitor August’s AML updates, the 2027 tax regime’s rollout, and the Samsung-led platform’s implementation milestones as key markers for the next phase of Korea’s crypto story.

References and related coverage include reporting on regulatory pushes and industry responses, such as the 10 million won reporting rule discussion and the 22% crypto gains tax plan, as well as ongoing updates on Samsung SDS’s blockchain securities initiative and Korea’s broader tokenized-asset agenda.

TLDR

• Major indices reached all-time highs last week, propelled by technology and artificial intelligence momentum
• Tuesday’s April inflation report and Thursday’s retail spending figures will shape Federal Reserve rate outlook
• Cisco’s Wednesday earnings call will reveal whether margin challenges persist amid AI networking opportunities
• Applied Materials results offer critical insight into semiconductor equipment demand sustainability
• Tuesday earnings from On Holding and Under Armour provide a pulse check on premium consumer apparel trends

Investors face a pivotal week as five strategically important companies report quarterly results while critical economic indicators hit the calendar. These events collectively address the market’s most pressing questions about consumer resilience and artificial intelligence infrastructure growth.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched record closes heading into this week. Technology shares provided substantial momentum, buoyed by artificial intelligence enthusiasm, robust semiconductor performance, and declining energy costs. However, upcoming economic releases and corporate earnings could substantially alter market sentiment.

The April Consumer Price Index arrives Tuesday morning. Three days later, April retail spending figures will be published. These reports carry significant weight in shaping investor perspectives on monetary policy direction and household financial health.

Let’s examine what makes each company worth monitoring closely.

Walmart

Walmart stands as perhaps the week’s most significant bellwether for understanding American consumer behavior.

Walmart Inc., WMT

Thursday’s retail spending report will reveal whether consumer purchases maintained momentum through April. Households proved surprisingly resilient when gasoline prices climbed toward $4.50 during March, though emerging signals suggest growing caution. Consumer expenditure growth has decelerated, with some households front-loading purchases of vehicles and major appliances to avoid anticipated price hikes.

Walmart’s customer base spans income levels but provides particularly valuable insight into lower- and middle-income household spending patterns. Robust retail figures would reinforce positive sentiment around the retailer. Disappointing data would intensify worries about how inflation continues pressuring these consumer segments.

Cisco Systems

Cisco unveils fiscal third-quarter performance Wednesday after market close.

Cisco Systems, Inc., CSCO

Analysts will scrutinize top-line expansion, profitability metrics, and sales momentum in AI-focused networking products. During the previous quarter, Cisco exceeded expectations for both revenue and earnings, yet shares declined as margin compression emerged. This makes profitability the critical metric warranting closest attention in the upcoming release.

Artificial intelligence presents another important dimension. Corporate expenditure on data center capabilities and network architecture continues accelerating. Cisco needs to demonstrate it’s successfully capturing meaningful share of this spending wave, similar to gains posted by semiconductor manufacturers.

Applied Materials

Applied Materials operates outside the spotlight compared to Nvidia or AMD, yet serves an essential function within the chip ecosystem. The company’s equipment enables manufacturers to produce cutting-edge semiconductors.

Earnings are scheduled for release this week. Market participants will parse results to assess whether chipmaking equipment demand remains healthy. Semiconductor equities have delivered impressive returns driven by artificial intelligence applications, memory chip requirements, and data center infrastructure buildout.

Solid performance would validate this narrative. Disappointing forward guidance might trigger concerns that stock appreciation has outpaced actual business fundamentals.

On Holding

On Holding releases first-quarter financial results before Tuesday’s opening bell.

The Switzerland-based athletic footwear and apparel company has delivered rapid expansion, with investors focused on revenue trajectory, profit margins, and inventory management. The company’s recent appointment of its co-founders as co-chief executives adds another layer of interest to the earnings discussion and any strategic commentary provided.

On Holding offers perspective on premium athletic merchandise demand. Strong performance would indicate affluent consumers continue spending readily on branded products.

Under Armour

Under Armour publishes fiscal fourth-quarter numbers Tuesday morning.

The athletic apparel maker has pursued an operational restructuring emphasizing expense reduction and brand revitalization. Investors seek evidence these initiatives are translating into improved financial performance. Recent weakness in clothing retail categories elevates importance of this report as an apparel sector health indicator.

Revenue patterns, profitability, and inventory positions will draw primary attention.

Final Thoughts

This week transcends individual company performance—it represents a comprehensive examination of dominant market themes.

Inflation metrics will determine whether price pressures continue moderating. Retail figures will clarify actual consumer financial conditions. Cisco and Applied Materials will provide ground-level perspective on artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand sustainability. On Holding and Under Armour will indicate whether premium apparel purchases remain strong.

Each data point and earnings report contributes to the fundamental question facing investors: can markets sustain record valuations as new information arrives?

Key Takeaways

• The Defense Department disclosed thousands of pages documenting UAP encounters following President Trump’s mandate
• Military records detail objects executing sharp 90-degree maneuvers at high speeds and disabling aircraft weapons systems
• Advanced capabilities outlined in reports align with technologies developed by defense contractors specializing in stealth and electronic warfare
• Major defense firms including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX are linked to classified programs exploring similar technologies
• The iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF has declined 8% amid Iranian conflicts, with market watchers saying UAP disclosures won’t significantly impact defense sector valuations

The Defense Department made public 161 declassified files on Friday containing thousands of pages documenting what officials term “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.” President Donald Trump ordered the disclosure following his earlier commitment to transparency regarding UAP records in response to significant public curiosity.

The records are accessible through the Department of Defense’s official portal, with additional batches scheduled for future disclosure. The collection encompasses multiple decades and features declassified military communications, Apollo lunar mission documentation, and testimony from civilian observers.

A 2023 incident report documents an unidentified craft executing several sharp 90-degree directional changes while traveling at approximately 80 miles per hour. Such flight characteristics suggest breakthrough propulsion systems and advanced materials engineering—technological domains where companies like Lockheed Martin and GE Aerospace maintain active research programs.

Another documented encounter from 2022 in the East China Sea describes a football-sized object plunging into the ocean at extreme velocity without creating water displacement or velocity reduction. Such performance characteristics hold potential relevance for naval engineering firms including General Dynamics and Huntington-Ingalls Industries.

FBI documentation within the disclosure package references objects undetectable through visual observation yet clearly registering on radar systems. This capability mirrors optical camouflage technology, a specialty area for stealth-oriented defense manufacturers like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.

Military Aircraft Weapons System Rendered Inoperable

A 2023 pilot account describes complete weapons system failure occurring during proximity to a compact UAP. Such electronic disruption represents jamming and electronic warfare capabilities, sectors where defense contractors including RTX, BAE Systems, and L3Harris Technologies maintain specialized operations.

Regardless of the compelling nature of these accounts, market analysts don’t anticipate the UAP document release will boost defense sector equities. The iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF has experienced an 8% decline since Iranian hostilities commenced. Market participants remain concentrated on budget allocations and international conflicts rather than unexplained phenomena reports.

Classified Program Revenue Decreases at Lockheed

Lockheed Martin disclosed a 1% year-over-year revenue reduction in its aeronautics division during the first quarter of 2026. Company officials attributed the decrease largely to approximately $325 million in reduced classified program sales. Bank of America analysts project Lockheed’s classified program expenditures will range between $500 million and $700 million throughout the complete 2026 fiscal year.

The document disclosure arrives amid heightened public attention to UAPs that intensified following Congressional hearings in 2022—the first such proceedings in half a century. Former President Barack Obama further amplified interest during a February media appearance, stating aliens were “real,” though he subsequently explained he encountered no concrete evidence during his presidential tenure.

Trump issued directives to the Pentagon for UAP-related file disclosure shortly following Obama’s interview. The 161 documents currently published constitute the initial phase of the broader release initiative.

Numerous photographs contained within the files are characterized as unclear or display dark circular shapes. The actionable investment intelligence remains minimal at this stage.

Interested individuals can access the complete file collection directly at war.gov/UFO.

Key Takeaways

• Major U.S. indices notched fresh all-time highs last week, powered by semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks
• Tuesday brings April inflation numbers; analysts expect close scrutiny of energy component following March’s 20%+ surge
• Semiconductor sector rallied strongly, with Micron climbing approximately 38% weekly and Intel gaining on reported Apple partnership
• Notable earnings releases include Cisco, Under Armour, Klarna, Alibaba, and Applied Materials
• Bitcoin hovered around $81,332, consolidating near the $80,000 threshold

Wall Street concluded last week’s trading session with benchmark indices establishing new records. The S&P 500 advanced 0.84% to finish at 7,397.09, while the Nasdaq posted a robust 2.35% gain to reach 29,195.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed only a marginal 0.02% increase, highlighting the technology sector’s dominance in the recent rally.

Employment data provided reassurance to market participants. April’s nonfarm payroll additions totaled 115,000, significantly exceeding consensus estimates of 55,000. Meanwhile, the jobless rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. These robust figures alleviated concerns about labor market deterioration while simultaneously diminishing expectations for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate reductions.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield declined to 4.33%, accompanied by the VIX volatility index falling to 17.08. Gold appreciated 1.39% to $4,747 per ounce. Crude oil retreated 1.79% to $93.38 per barrel, influenced partly by indications that Washington and Tehran might be progressing toward diplomatic engagement.

Semiconductor equities dominated performance metrics. Micron skyrocketed nearly 38% over the five-day period. Sandisk climbed more than 31%. Intel shares jumped following media reports suggesting a preliminary agreement to manufacture processors for Apple. Advanced Micro Devices similarly posted gains.

Artificial Intelligence Partnerships Spark Market Activity

Anthropic announced plans to leverage SpaceX’s Colossus supercomputer infrastructure to expand computational capacity for its Claude AI platform. Akamai shares soared on reports of securing a $1.8 billion cloud services contract with Anthropic. Nvidia disclosed intentions to invest up to $2.1 billion in constructing as much as 5 gigawatts of AI infrastructure.

Not every artificial intelligence-related company shared in the gains. SoundHound declined despite reporting improved revenue figures. HubSpot retreated following disappointing forward guidance. Cloudflare fell after issuing weak second-quarter projections and announcing workforce reductions.

Rocket Lab soared 34% after delivering impressive first-quarter financial results and securing its largest launch contract to date. Dell shares climbed after President Trump encouraged White House visitors to “go out and buy a Dell.” Spirit Airlines ceased operations following the collapse of rescue negotiations.

Bitcoin concluded the week trading near $81,332, down 0.12%, maintaining its position close to the $80,000 mark without establishing a definitive directional trend.

Critical Events for the Coming Days

April’s Consumer Price Index data arrives Tuesday morning. Energy component pricing represents the primary area of interest following March’s surge exceeding 20%. Elevated gasoline costs are already straining household budgets, particularly among lower-income demographics.

Retail sales figures for April will be released Thursday. Apparel retailers and miscellaneous store categories experienced declining sales during the previous month. Financial results from Under Armour, On Holding, Birkenstock, and Klarna may provide additional insight into consumer spending patterns.

Cisco releases quarterly results Wednesday following the closing bell. Alibaba reports Thursday. Applied Materials announces earnings Thursday, potentially offering valuable perspective on semiconductor equipment demand trends.

The Federal Reserve continues commanding market attention. Current employment conditions appear sufficiently robust to sustain economic expansion while falling short of the weakness necessary to prompt immediate monetary policy easing. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials’ communications will likely continue driving market sentiment throughout the coming sessions.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has drawn attention to prediction markets after discussing their growth during a May 8 speech. 

She said commercial prediction markets have “taken off” and show “no sign of slowing down.”

Her remarks did not announce a final SEC rule for prediction markets. Still, they added to debate over how event-based products, tokenized markets, and possible prediction market ETFs may fit within U.S. securities rules.

SEC signals softer crypto approach

Crypto.news recently reported that the SEC’s messaging has shifted under Chair Paul Atkins, with Peirce and Mark Uyeda calling for clearer rules and a more open stance toward innovation. Peirce said the U.S. should be a place where people want to build in crypto and other markets.

The SEC’s Crypto Task Force also says it aims to draw clearer lines for crypto assets, build tailored disclosure rules, and create realistic paths to registration. Peirce leads that task force, according to the SEC.

Prediction market ETFs add pressure

Crypto.news has also noted that Bitwise filed for exchange-traded funds tied to political prediction markets under the PredictionShares brand. That filing placed event-based market exposure closer to traditional investor products.

Such products may face close checks around disclosures, market rules, settlement, and event resolution. “Prediction market ETFs may launch soon” remains a claim to treat with caution because approval still depends on regulators and final product reviews.

A future framework may focus on clear disclosures, listing standards, manipulation controls, and dispute rules. Prediction markets also rely on trusted event settlement, which can create risks if results are unclear or challenged.

South Korean investors cut their crypto holdings by more than half over the past year as capital moved toward the stock market. 

Bank of Korea data submitted to Rep. Cha Gyu-geun showed holdings fell from 121.8 trillion won, or $83.3 billion, at the end of January 2025 to 60.6 trillion won, or $41.4 billion, by the end of February 2026.

Daily trading volume also dropped across Upbit, Bithumb, Korbit, Coinone, and Gopax. The figure fell to about $3 billion in February from $11.6 billion in December 2024, showing lower activity among retail traders.

Investors move toward stocks

The decline came as Korean investors turned toward equities during a strong stock market run. Lower crypto prices also reduced the value of assets held on local exchanges.

Won deposits at exchanges also fell. The balance dropped from 10.7 trillion won at the end of 2024 to 7.8 trillion won, pointing to weaker cash demand for crypto trading.

Moreover, stablecoins moved differently from the broader crypto market. Holdings rose from $60 million in July 2024 to $597 million in December, before falling back to $41 million in February.

As previously reported, stablecoins made up nearly half of South Korea’s crypto outflows in Q1 2025, as users moved funds to overseas exchanges. That trend shows why regulators are watching cross-border crypto flows closely.

Rules add pressure on exchanges

South Korea is also preparing tougher AML rules. Transactions above 10 million won involving overseas exchanges or private wallets could be flagged as suspicious from August.

Crypto.news also reported that Samsung SDS will build the Korea Securities Depository’s token securities platform before South Korea’s new tokenized securities framework takes effect in February 2027. That shows the country is tightening crypto oversight while building regulated blockchain market infrastructure.

TLDR:

• Nvidia has crossed $40 billion in investment commitments in 2026, targeting firms across the AI supply chain.
  
• A $30 billion bet on OpenAI stands as Nvidia’s single largest investment, deepening a decade-long partnership.
  
• Deals with Corning and IREN tie optical manufacturing and data center capacity directly to Nvidia’s hardware ecosystem.
  
• Analysts warn that neocloud investments may be pre-funding GPU purchases, raising questions about organic AI demand.

Nvidia has surpassed $40 billion in investment commitments in 2026, backing companies across the AI infrastructure stack.

The chipmaker recently agreed to invest up to $3.2 billion in glass maker Corning and $2.1 billion in data center operator IREN.

These deals reflect a broader strategy of financing the AI supply chain while securing commercial partnerships. Analysts see both promise and risk in Nvidia’s growing investment portfolio.

Nvidia Funds AI Infrastructure From Chips to Data Centers

Nvidia’s 2026 dealmaking pace has far outrun previous years. The company has signed at least seven multibillion-dollar deals with publicly traded firms this year.

Additionally, it has participated in roughly two dozen private company investment rounds, according to FactSet.

The IREN deal includes an agreement for the data center company to deploy up to 5 gigawatts of Nvidia’s DSX-branded infrastructure.

These facilities will power AI workloads at locations across the globe. The arrangement ties IREN’s expansion directly to Nvidia’s hardware ecosystem.

The Corning investment comes with a manufacturing commitment as well. Corning will build three new U.S. facilities dedicated to optical technologies for Nvidia. The chipmaker is shifting toward fiber-optic cables instead of copper as it develops rack-scale systems.

Earlier in 2026, Nvidia put $2 billion each into Marvell Technology, Lumentum, and Coherent. All three companies are developing silicon photonics and optical networking technologies.

Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein called these component deals “super smart by the CFO and team and a great use of cash,” adding that they help accelerate critical technologies currently in short supply.

OpenAI Remains Nvidia’s Largest Single Bet

Nvidia’s biggest individual investment this year was a $30 billion commitment to OpenAI. The two companies have worked together for over a decade, with ties deepening since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. CEO Jensen Huang described the relationship as a long-standing strategic partnership.

During an April podcast appearance, Huang explained Nvidia’s approach to backing AI companies. “There are so many great, amazing foundation model companies, and we try to invest in all of them,” he said.

“We don’t pick winners. We need to support everyone.” Nvidia also joined funding rounds for Anthropic and Elon Musk’s xAI before its merger with SpaceX in February.

Wedbush Securities analyst Matthew Bryson noted that Nvidia’s investments fit “squarely into the circular investment theme” driving market durability concerns. However, he also sees the deals building a competitive moat if Nvidia executes well.

Klein, on the other hand, was more direct about neocloud investments, saying, “It smells like you are pre-funding the purchase of your own GPUs and products.”

Ben Bajarin at Creative Strategies flagged a longer-term concern regarding demand sustainability. “The risk is that if the cycle turns, the market starts questioning how much of the demand was organic versus supported by Nvidia’s own balance sheet,” he told CNBC.

Meanwhile, on Nvidia’s last earnings call, Huang stated, “Our investments are focused very squarely, strategically on expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach.” Nvidia’s non-marketable equity securities grew to $22.25 billion by January 2026, up sharply from $3.39 billion a year earlier.

Bitcoin (BTC) may head into next week’s US inflation report with less support than it had during the last two CPI releases, raising the risk of a pullback toward $70,000.

Key takeaways:

• Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast projects April headline CPI to rise to 3.56% year over year.
• BTC’s rising wedge pattern could trigger a decline toward $70,000

Fed estimates 0.26% rise in headline inflation

The Cleveland Fed’s latest inflation nowcast estimates April CPI at 3.56% year over year, up from 3.3% in March.

Year-over-year inflation expectations for April and May. Source: Cleveland Fed

It expects monthly CPI at 0.45%, down from 0.9%, while core CPI is projected at 2.56% year over year and 0.21% month over month, compared with 2.6% and 0.2% previously. The official April CPI report is due on May 12.

That keeps the inflation picture mixed. Headline CPI is expected to reaccelerate, even if the monthly pace slows and core inflation stays mostly stable.

For risk assets, that is not an ideal setup. A firmer annual CPI reading can still reinforce the view that the Fed has little room to cut rates quickly, which tends to pressure speculative trades such as Bitcoin.

Target rate probabilities for the December Fed meeting. Source: CME

Nonetheless, Bitcoin has avoided deeper declines despite the recent hot CPI prints.

For instance, BTC price rallied by over 15% after the March CPI report showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February.

One reason is that institutional buyers absorbed more than 500% of the newly mined Bitcoin supply, with Strategy accounting for a large share of that buying.

BTC/USD daily chart vs. institutional buying market cap. Source: Capriole Investments

That support looks weaker now. Strategy has paused its BTC purchases, while its STRC preferred stock continues to trade below its $100 par value.

When STRC trades below par, issuing new shares becomes less efficient, limiting Strategy’s ability to raise fresh capital for more Bitcoin buys.

Strategy’s weekly Bitcoin buying estimates. Source: STRC.LIVE

That weakening support may leave Bitcoin more exposed to a different CPI reaction pattern this time.

In a Sunday post, analyst Killa said larger players may start de-risking around the inflation release, pointing to a similar pattern of caution around CPI events in 2025.

BTC/USD performance after CPI releases. Source: TradingView/Killa

“Key level to hold is the 78.6K weekly open, if lost, 74–75K is the next downside target,” he said, adding:

“I would watch for liquidity sweeps around this pivot to signal the next move.”

BTC wedge hints at deeper decline toward $70,000

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is printing a classic rising wedge pattern on its daily charts.

A rising wedge is considered a bearish reversal setup that typically resolves when the price breaks below its lower trend line and falls by as much as the structure’s maximum height.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

As of Sunday, BTC was rising toward the wedge’s apex point, where its two trendlines converge, at around $84,000. A breakdown from that level may result in a decline toward the wedge’s measured downside target near $70,000.

Related: Bitcoin profit-taking may ‘accelerate’ as price hits 3-month high: Analyst

Conversely, a break above the apex point, which also coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, the blue line), may invalidate the bearish setup altogether.

In that scenario, the next potential upside target sits in the $90,000–$95,000 range.