CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns the Bitcoin bear market could extend into early 2027, based on on-chain PnL data.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X this week warning that Bitcoin’s current downturn mirrors the extended bear cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022, and may not resolve until early 2027.

“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months,” Ju wrote. “Since the trend change started in October 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet.”

What the PnL Index shows

Ju’s analysis is grounded in CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, a 365-day moving average that tracks investor profitability cycles. The indicator peaked in late 2025 in a pattern closely matching the tops recorded before the prolonged bear phases of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Each of those periods saw steep sustained declines once the signal rolled over from its peak.

Bitcoin was trading near $73,000 at the time of the post, down roughly 30% from its 2025 highs, amid rising macroeconomic pressure from elevated US Treasury yields and broader risk-off sentiment across markets. As crypto.news reported, bearish social commentary on Bitcoin hit its highest level in 2026 earlier in April as spot demand weakened.

The reversal signal Ju describes requires a specific combination that has not yet materialised: unrealized profit margins must begin rising while realised profits fall simultaneously, indicating that selling pressure is exhausting itself and buyers are regaining control. Until that pattern appears, Ju views the bear case as intact.

Not all analysts share the extended timeline. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck told CNBC earlier this year that Bitcoin may be forming a cycle bottom, pointing to options market stabilisation and slowing long-term holder selling as early constructive signs. Coinbase noted in its April 2026 monthly report that price support may emerge between May and June, potentially setting up a stronger third quarter.

How Bitcoin recovers from this level

For a sustained recovery, Ju flagged two critical demand drivers: renewed inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased activity from over-the-counter institutional desks, both of which have slowed in recent months. ETF flows have remained positive but at a normalised pace relative to the surge seen in early 2025.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that capital inflows into Bitcoin continue to rise, but market capitalisation has not responded proportionally. That divergence, where money enters the market but prices stagnate or decline, is the defining signature of a bear market in Ju’s framework.

Bitcoin’s current price is consolidating near the $73,000 level, with CoinGlass identifying $74,200 and $74,500 as key resistance zones where large sell orders are clustered. The Clarity Act’s potential passage remains one of the most cited institutional catalysts that analysts believe could shift sentiment, though Ju’s PnL model operates independently of policy timelines.

The United States has seized roughly $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday, adding that some of the wallet owners may not yet know the funds are gone.

“I believe that we have seized about a billion dollars of their crypto,” Bessent said while speaking at the Reagan National Economic Forum. “Just outright grabbed the wallets. Some of them may be typing in right now and not have realized that their wallet had been grabbed,” he added.

Bessent said the seizures are part of the US financial pressure campaign against Iran, known as Operation Economic Fury. Launched in March 2025, the operation has targeted Iranian assets across multiple fronts, seizing cryptocurrency, freezing bank accounts and working with European allies to confiscate properties.

Scott Bessent at the Reagan National Economic Forum. Source: YouTube

“I think between five and a half to six weeks of an incredibly successful military campaign and Operation Economic Fury, where we have really cut them off. They are at the end of their Tether now financially,” he said.

Related: Crypto markets shed $80B after fresh US strikes on Iran

Iran’s financial state is dire

The Treasury secretary said the regime had been siphoning $400 to $500 million a month and dividing the proceeds among roughly 80 leaders before the US intervened. He said inflation in Iran has likely surpassed 200%, food vouchers are being distributed, the internet has been shut down and 40 to 50% of Iranian troops are not getting paid.

Bessent also addressed ongoing negotiations with Iran, noting the complexity of dealing with a fractured leadership structure following US and Israeli strikes on senior regime figures.

The newly disclosed $1 billion figure is roughly double the $500 million in Iranian cryptocurrency assets the Treasury Department announced it had seized in late April, and much higher than the $344 million in seized crypto assets disclosed earlier in the month.

Related: Bitcoin bounces as Trump prepares to announce ‘negotiated’ Iran deal

Iran eyes Bitcoin-powered insurance scheme for Hormuz

As Cointelegraph reported, Iran is weighing a plan to monetize control of the Strait of Hormuz through a Bitcoin-based insurance model. A state document cited by Fars News Agency, an outlet closely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, outlined a platform called “Hormuz Safe,” which would sell digital marine insurance paid in Bitcoin and settled on the blockchain, potentially generating over $10 billion in revenue for the country.

In early April, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said certain ships would be able to pass through the strait provided that they pay a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin.

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs — Mid-2026

Binance named Genius Terminal its 65th HODLer Airdrop, giving 10 million GENIUS tokens to qualifying BNB holders.

Binance announced Genius Terminal as the 65th project on its HODLer Airdrop program, continuing its pattern of rewarding loyal BNB holders with tokens from projects ahead of their exchange listing.

The snapshot window for eligibility ran from May 11 to May 13, 2026. Only BNB subscribed to Binance’s Simple Earn or On-Chain Yields products during that three-day period qualifies, with allocations distributed proportionally based on each user’s BNB balance. Rewards were sent to eligible users’ Spot Accounts within five hours of the announcement.

Payouts.com co-founders say the future of agent payments combines stablecoin rails with programmable control layers built for enterprise trust.

Payouts.com co-founders Leor Ceder and Barak Hirchson say the next wave of AI agent commerce runs on stablecoin rails, and on the programmable control layer built on top of them. In their view, wallets are a necessary foundation, but the durable enterprise value sits in what governs them.

The position adds a critical dimension to the wallet-led narrative dominating agent payments today. Juniper Research forecasts cross-border B2B stablecoin payments will hit $5 trillion by 2035, up from $13.4 billion in 2026, with B2B taking 85% of total stablecoin transaction value.

Where stablecoins win and where smart rail selection matters

Hirchson, Payouts.com’s chief solutions officer, said rail selection is decided by the recipient: country, payment method, urgency, amount, and cost all factor in. Stablecoins win cleanly in two scenarios.

The first is cross-border versus SWIFT, where wire fees and FX spreads can eat 4 to 5% of a transaction. The second is machine-to-API micropayments, where the x402 standard already routes pay-per-call API invoices in stablecoin. Crypto.news reported that AI agents have settled $73 million across 176 million transactions on crypto rails, with USDC handling 98.6%.

“PIX clears in under ten seconds in Brazil for free, UPI handles hundreds of millions of transactions a day in India at near-zero cost,” Hirchson said. “The agents that scale are the ones that can pick the right rail per transaction, not the ones locked into a single rail based on what their limited wallet supports.”

The five non-negotiable agent controls

Hirchson laid out five controls he said are non-negotiable before companies let agents transact autonomously: scoped credentials, hard spend caps enforced at the protocol level, cryptographically signed mandates, idempotency at the payment layer, and a fail-closed posture.

“This is what programmable spending actually means. You define the envelope once, the infrastructure enforces it forever, and the agent operates freely inside it,” he said. “Is the industry building these fast enough? Not uniformly.”

Some wallets shipped recently include hard caps and signed mandates, he said. Others ship with an API key and a balance, which he called the worst-case configuration for a compromised key.

What the agent payment stack looks like by 2027

Ceder said the interesting question by May 2027 will not be which stablecoin wins. It will be programmability: how granularly enterprises can define what an agent is allowed to do, how reliably that policy is enforced, and how cleanly compliance can be proven after the fact.

“The wallet wars happening right now will look the way the browser wars look in retrospect: necessary, formative, and not where the durable value got captured,” Ceder said. The compliance layer must be built into the infrastructure rather than the agent, with every payment passing a cascade of principal, account and jurisdiction checks before any money moves.

Coinbase and Cloudflare have built the x402 protocol into a fast-growing settlement rail for agents, with the standard recently joining the Linux Foundation. AWS embedded x402 into Amazon Bedrock AgentCore Payments earlier this month, while Solana and Google launched Pay.sh as a parallel route.

For Payouts.com, the bet is that the control layer above those rails is where enterprise spend will land. The agent stays autonomous. The envelope around it does not move.

Senator Cynthia Lummis says the Clarity Act must pass this Congress or the next legislative window opens in 2030.

Senator Cynthia Lummis issued a stark warning on May 29, telling lawmakers the current Congress represents the final realistic window to pass comprehensive digital asset legislation before a four-year freeze sets in.

In a post on X, the Wyoming senator wrote: “The next window for digital asset legislation after this Congress is likely 2030. Until then, developers remain exposed with no legal protections, and law enforcement remains without the tools to hold bad actors accountable. The Clarity Act solves both.”

Why Lummis says 2030 is the fallback

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act with a 15 to 9 bipartisan vote on May 14, marking real progress after months of stalls over stablecoin yield disputes. A full Senate floor vote is a different calculation, with November 2026 midterm elections compressing the available calendar to weeks.

Lummis has argued the current moment is defined by a political alignment that rarely holds in Washington: the House passed the Clarity Act 294 to 134, the Senate Agriculture Committee has cleared its version, and the White House under Trump has publicly backed it as a national priority. A House flip after midterms, or a shift in Senate committee composition, could disassemble that alignment entirely and force the industry to start over under a new Congress with different priorities.

Political forecasts add weight to that concern. Several analysts expect Republicans to lose seats in November, which would push digital asset regulation down the Democratic agenda. Polymarket currently prices Clarity Act passage in 2026 at roughly 58%, a figure that reflects both the bill’s progress and the obstacles ahead.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins offered a counterpoint, telling Fox Business he has confidence Congress will pass the bill and that President Trump will sign it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also pressed for urgency, warning that regulatory ambiguity has already driven crypto development toward Abu Dhabi and Singapore.

What a delay actually costs

The Clarity Act would establish formal definitions for digital assets and divide oversight between the SEC and CFTC based on each asset’s classification. Without it, the SEC continues applying the Howey test case by case, with no binding rules or procedural protections for the sector.

As crypto.news reported, stablecoin yield provisions remain one of the most contested flashpoints, alongside ethics language barring government officials from personally benefiting from crypto holdings. Both issues must clear before the bill reaches Trump’s desk.

Lummis, who announced she will not seek a second Senate term, has framed the stakes in direct terms. Without the Clarity Act, she says American developers remain targets for prosecution simply for publishing code. The Senate Banking Committee’s approval was a milestone, but the floor vote, reconciliation with the House version, and the presidential signature all remain ahead. Lummis’s warning is that the calendar for all three is narrowing fast.

Former Celsius founder and former chief executive Alex Mashinsky has moved to vacate his 12-year prison sentence in a New York federal court, arguing that he received ineffective counsel and that the conviction rests on tainted evidence. The motion, filed in the Southern District of New York, follows Judge John Koeltl’s May 2025 ruling imposing a 144-month term for commodities fraud and securities fraud tied to the Celsius network’s downfall. Mashinsky filed the paperwork without new representation, after announcing on May 5 that he would proceed pro se.

In his filing, Mashinsky contends that his defense was compromised by ineffective assistance of counsel and that the evidence underpinning his guilty pleas was tainted by a “fruit of the poisonous tree” scenario—a legal doctrine referring to evidence obtained through misconduct. He also noted that his counsel ceased communication with him at a critical juncture, forcing him to submit his reply directly to the court without new guidance.

Beyond the legal procedural questions, Mashinsky’s motion reiterates claims about the broader forces he believes influenced Celsius’s fate. He asserts that former FTX chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried intended to destroy Celsius and that the market manipulation surrounding Celsius’s CEL token on the FTX exchange was a central factor in the crisis. In support of his position, Mashinsky attached messages with Celsius’s former chief revenue officer, Roni Cohen-Pavon, alleging a “hostile takeover” attempt at the platform.

Cel­sis filed for bankruptcy in 2022 after a period of distress across the crypto sector, a year that saw a wave of exchange failures. In July 2023, U.S. authorities charged Mashinsky and Cohen-Pavon with fraud and market manipulation related to Celsius’s operations; both executives later pleaded guilty. The legal actions against them formed a broader narrative of accountability in a sector that had been rocked by collapses and restructuring.

In a separate piece of the Celsius saga, Cohen-Pavon was sentenced to time served after pleading guilty in September 2023. Prosecutors cited her “substantial assistance” to the government, including willingness to testify against Mashinsky, as a key factor in the sentence and in concluding the criminal case against the Celsius executives.

Key takeaways

• Alice Mashinsky seeks to vacate his 12-year sentence in SDNY, arguing ineffective assistance of counsel and tainted evidence as grounds for relief.
• The motion arrives in the wake of Mashinsky’s May 2025 sentencing and follows a 2022 Celsius bankruptcy and 2023 indictments of Celsius executives.
• Mashinsky alleges that Sam Bankman-Fried sought to destroy Celsius and points to internal communications suggesting a hostile takeover attempt at Celsius.
• Cohen-Pavon was sentenced to time served after pleading guilty; prosecutors highlighted substantial cooperation, with penalties including more than $1 million in fines and a $40,000 fine.
• Financial consequences for Mashinsky include a $48 million forfeiture from a criminal case and a separate $10 million FTC settlement tied to a multibillion-dollar Celsius judgment, most of which is suspended.

Legal tides around a fallen platform

The Celsius case sits at the intersection of criminal accountability and corporate collapse in a market still grappling with the aftershocks of the 2022 downturn. The move to vacate hinges on nuanced questions about representation and the admissibility of evidence, but it also underscores continuing scrutiny of how individuals and teams behind high-profile crypto platforms are held to legal standards. Mashinsky’s pro se stance adds a layer of procedural complexity, potentially prolonging a series of court filings that have already stretched across years.

From a regulatory perspective, the saga—spanning bankruptcy, indictments, guilty pleas, and settlements—illustrates the breadth of federal interest in the sector’s actors, not just the exchanges themselves. The case also intersects with the broader narrative of post-FTX accountability, where prosecutors have pursued multiple fronts to address alleged deception and market manipulation in the crypto economy.

The financial penalties connected to Celsius’s leadership also illustrate the penalties that can accompany wrongdoing in this space. Mashinsky’s $48 million forfeiture and the $10 million FTC settlement linked to Celsius’s broader judgment reflect the dimensions of civil and criminal consequences that can persist long after a platform’s immediate collapse. Cohen-Pavon’s time-served sentence, alongside more than $1 million in penalties, reinforces that executives may face significant costs even when criminal convictions are resolved.

What investors and crypto builders should watch next

For creditors, investors, and users connected to Celsius assets, the ongoing legal proceedings add a layer of uncertainty to an already unsettled chapter in the company’s history. The pending motion to vacate could, if granted, alter aspects of the sentencing posture and the potential financial exposure linked to the case. Even if the motion does not succeed, the process highlights the persistent risk of legal and reputational disruption surrounding failed platforms and their leadership.

Looking ahead, observers will be watching for a decision on Mashinsky’s vacatur bid, which could influence related sentencing or forfeiture orders. The proceedings also sit within a larger regulatory frame—where authorities are increasingly focused on executive accountability in the wake of major market disruptions. As the Celsius matter continues to unfold, market participants should monitor any formal court rulings, potential settlements, and how these developments might impact remaining creditors, unsecured claims, and the broader narrative around crypto lending platforms’ risk management and governance standards.

Readers should stay attentive to forthcoming court filings and rulings, as they will signal whether the motion to vacate moves forward or stalls. The case remains a key datapoint in understanding how the legal system handles complex criminal and civil actions tied to high-profile crypto platform failures—and what that means for the trajectory of crypto accountability in the years ahead.

The United States has seized roughly $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency assets, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced at the Reagan National Economic Forum. He characterized the action as a direct disruption of illicit financial activity, describing it as an outright grab of wallets that some owners may not yet realize have been emptied. The disclosure situates the seizures within a multiyear effort to constrain Iran’s access to international financial networks and to press its leadership economically.

Bessent said the seizures are part of a broader pressure campaign against Iran, known as Operation Economic Fury. Launched in March 2025, the operation combines cryptocurrency takedowns, banking account freezes, and coordinated asset confiscation with European partners. He framed the effort as a sustained, comprehensive push designed to “cut them off” financially, noting that the trajectory over the past five-and-a-half to six weeks has been remarkably effective. “Between five and a half to six weeks of an incredibly successful military campaign and Operation Economic Fury, where we have really cut them off. They are at the end of their Tether now financially,” he stated.

Key takeaways

• The United States reports roughly $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets seized through Operation Economic Fury, including wallet-level takedowns.
• The newly disclosed figure is about twice the $500 million previously announced in late April and well above the $344 million disclosed earlier in the month.
• Officials describe Iran’s financial situation as dire, with high inflation, internal funding pressures, and disruptions to state services and military payrolls.
• The seizures illustrate intensified cross-border enforcement and international cooperation, with implications for crypto compliance, sanctions screening, and banking access for sanctioned states.
• Policy conversations around crypto-enabled shipping and revenue mechanisms—such as Bitcoin-based incentives for Hormuz transit—signal broader state-influenced use cases for digital assets, pending regulatory scrutiny.

Asset seizures: scale, method, and regulatory context

According to officials, the $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets seized under Operation Economic Fury represents a significant escalation in exploiting blockchain-traceable funds linked to sanctioned activity. The strategy appears to rely on identifying wallets associated with state-backed or proxy actors, then applying enforcement measures that repurpose or redirect the assets through compliant channels. The approach also reflects the United States’ broader sanctions toolkit, which increasingly treats certain digital assets as subject to traditional financial and export-control regimes.

The Treasury’s disclosures underscore a shift in how authorities frame enforcement risk for crypto-asset holders connected to sanctioned regimes. By publicly detailing wallet-level seizures and the scale of the assets involved, policymakers and regulated institutions gain a clearer baseline for due diligence, screening, and ongoing monitoring. For exchanges, custodians, and banks with crypto-related business lines, the development raises questions about the diligence required to identify sanctioned wallets, the treatment of seized or frozen crypto, and the timing of any redress or remediation for affected customers.

The previously reported figures provide context for the current disclosure. Officials had announced roughly $500 million in Iranian crypto assets seized in late April and about $344 million in crypto assets seized earlier in the month. The latest figure, therefore, suggests a substantial acceleration in enforcement activity within a relatively short window. These milestones have implications for cross-border regulatory coordination, including parallel actions by allied regulators and law enforcement partners in Europe and beyond. For market observers, the trend highlights the growing intersection of sanctions policy with digital-asset compliance requirements and the need for rigorous KYC/AML controls across custody and exchange ecosystems.

Iran’s economic strain and the geopolitical backdrop

Secretary Bessent painted a picture of severe economic strain within Iran, describing a regime that has allegedly siphoned hundreds of millions of dollars monthly and allocated proceeds among a broad leadership cadre. He suggested inflation could exceed 200 percent, with social subsidies being deployed to mitigate cost-of-living pressures and widespread internet restrictions affecting communications. Reports cited by officials indicate that a substantial portion of Iranian troops have faced delayed or disrupted pay, further complicating the regime’s capacity to project authority and sustain external influence flows.

The statements also reflect the strategic complexity of negotiating with a fractured leadership structure following recent strikes against senior regime figures. While Bessent did not hinge policy outcomes on these internal dynamics alone, the comments underscore how enforcement actions intersect with diplomatic channels, sanctions policy, and potential leverage in any future negotiations surrounding Tehran’s regional posture and long-term security considerations.

These disclosures come at a moment when the U.S. and its allies continue to calibrate sanctions pressure against Iran, balancing the aims of disrupting illicit financial networks with broader regional stability goals. The clearly articulated message is that crypto assets are not beyond the reach of conventional sanctions enforcement, and that dynamic, rapid actions can be employed to disrupt stated objectives even when actors pivot to digital instruments. For compliance teams and risk managers at financial institutions, the implications are twofold: a heightened emphasis on tracing cross-border crypto flows and an expanded mandate to screen counterparties against sanctioned-entity lists in near real time.

Policy implications and regulatory coordination

Beyond the immediate asset seizures, observers are examining the regulatory and policy ramifications for the crypto industry. The operation demonstrates a continued hard line on sanction enforcement, potentially accelerating the development of best practices around sanctions screening, wallet clustering analysis, and the cross-jurisdictional sharing of intelligence related to illicit fund flows. Firms engaged in custody, exchange, or payment processing face heightened expectations to implement robust monitoring, rapid response protocols, and transparent reporting mechanisms when dealing with funds that may be implicated by sanctions regimes.

In parallel, the focus on state-led crypto strategies—such as potential monetization schemes tied to strategic chokepoints—highlights the need for clear regulatory guardrails around crypto-based insurance, settlement, and revenue-sharing models used by states. As reported by Cointelegraph, Iran has been weighing a Bitcoin-based insurance framework to monetize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a project that could generate substantial revenue if implemented at scale and supported by compliant, auditable mechanisms. The proposed platform, termed “Hormuz Safe,” would sell digital marine insurance payable in Bitcoin and settled on the blockchain, potentially enabling more than $10 billion in revenue for the country, subject to regulatory approval and international compliance constraints. A separate report cited that some ships could pass Hormuz in exchange for a Bitcoin-denominated tariff of about $1 per barrel of oil. The development underscores the convergence of sovereign financing strategies and digital asset infrastructure, inviting scrutiny from licensing authorities and international financial regulators alike.

For regulated entities, the evolving environment implies a need for heightened vigilance around sanctioned counterparties, as well as clearer guidance from regulators on the permissibility and treatment of crypto assets tied to state operations. The cross-border dimension—where U.S. actions, European cooperation, and potentially other jurisdictions intersect—will likely shape licensing decisions, oversight practices, and the rigor of AML/KYC programs across the global crypto ecosystem. In this context, ongoing updates from U.S. agencies and international partners will be critical reference points for risk managers, legal counsel, and compliance leaders assessing exposure to sanctioned activities or users with ties to Iran or other restricted regimes.

Closing perspective

The scale of the recent seizures, coupled with Iran’s stated economic and strategic pressures, signals a pronounced trend: cryptocurrency is increasingly entangled with state-level sanctions enforcement and foreign policy aims. As authorities pursue more aggressive asset recovery and cross-border cooperation, firms across the crypto value chain must strengthen their compliance programs, enhance real-time monitoring, and prepare for evolving guidance on sanctioned assets and state-backed financial activities. The coming months will likely reveal further operational details and regulatory responses that define how digital assets interface with traditional sovereignty and enforcement mechanisms.

For further context, authorities and industry observers continue to monitor related developments, including prior disclosures and coverage of Iran-related crypto actions. In particular, Cointelegraph has reported on related seizures and policy discussions, illustrating the ongoing convergence of sanctions policy, crypto regulation, and geopolitical risk management.