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Some indicators are still going the wrong way, challenging the bullish $70,000 holdout narrative

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Some indicators are still going the wrong way, challenging the bullish $70,000 holdout narrative

What do you call a market that consistently shrugs off headlines that usually send it tumbling? You call it resilient with a strong underlying demand support.

That’s the bitcoin story in recent weeks, as it the cryptocurrency held firm around $70,000 even as the Iran war rages, oil prices surge, and Fed rate-cut bets evaporate. This kind of defiance screams bullishness.

But hang on, some key indicators are still heading the wrong way, throwing a wrench into that bullish interpretation.

The first indicator is the Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase, a Nasdaq-listed Exchange, and on the offshore giant Binance. Typically, a strong positive premium means U.S. institutional investors are bidding more aggressively than their global counterparts. A strong Coinbase premium has regularly featured during bull runs, including bitcoin’s first run to $100,000 in late 2024.

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But right now, the Coinbase Premium is at its most negative in over a month, according to data source Coinglass. In other words, BTC trades at a discount on Coinbase, indicating a relatively softer demand from U.S. investors. The discount reappeared on March 19 and has been growing since.

Another key indicator – bitcoin ETF inflows, also a proxy for institutional demand – has been underwhelming lately.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.53 billion in net inflows this month, ending a three-month streak of outflows, per SoSoValue. But nearly $1.3 billion arrived in the first half, with the pace slowing considerably to just $195 million since. Analysts have repeatedly stressed that consistent, strong inflows are crucial for Bitcoin prices to gain bullish momentum.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus Exchange, put it best: “The signal here is that institutional demand has not disappeared. However, it is selective and less linear than in the strongest accumulation phases.”

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As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $70,000, according to CoinDesk data.

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Crypto World

PI steadies at $0.1770 amid core team’s mainnet upgrade plans

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A bullish PI coin in front of a monitor
A bullish PI coin in front of a monitor

Key takeaways 

  • Pi Network’s PI token holds steady at $0.1730, up 4.5% from the previous day. 
  • The Pi Core Team’s upgrade to enable smart contracts, with a deadline set for April 27, is a potential catalyst. 

Pi Network’s PI token has managed to hold steady around $0.1770 as of Friday, adding a 4.5% gain from the previous day. 

The Pi Core Team (PCT) is driving momentum with the impending upgrade to the mainnet, which will enable smart contract functionality—expected to be a key catalyst for price movement.

PI rallies ahead of the Protocol 22 upgrade

PI is up 4.5% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. The rally comes after the Pi Core Team announced that April 27 is the final deadline for all mainnet nodes to complete necessary steps for remaining connected to the network, as part of the Stellar Protocol version 22 upgrade. 

While this upgrade will cause a brief 15-minute downtime during internal data transfer, it lays the groundwork for future improvements. Additionally, the full upgrade to version 26 is slated for June 22, ahead of Pi2Day on June 28.

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Will PI rally higher in the near term?

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient, trading above the $0.1770 level. However, Pi Network remains in a bearish posture, with the token still trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

The immediate resistance level is marked at $0.1785, corresponding to the 50-day EMA, followed by stronger resistance at $0.1865 (100-day EMA) and $0.2334 (200-day EMA).

However, momentum indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 is above the neutral 50 line, and is heading into the overbought region.

PI/USD 4H Chart

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing above its signal line indicates growing bullish momentum. 

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On the downside, key support is found at $0.1556, near the February 23 low, with further weakness potentially exposing $0.1310 if the market slips below this level.

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Crypto in Sustained Winter as Q1 CEX Volumes Drop

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Crypto in Sustained Winter as Q1 CEX Volumes Drop

The cryptocurrency market has entered a “sustained crypto winter,” according to CoinGecko, as spot trading volumes on centralized crypto exchanges rapidly fell over the first quarter of 2026.

Crypto market capitalization fell by more than 20% during the first quarter as “bearish momentum from late 2025 collided with global geopolitical instability,” CoinGecko said in a report on Thursday.

That caused the top 10 centralized exchanges by spot volume to record a 39% decrease in trading volume over the quarter ended in March, dropping to $2.7 trillion from $4.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The drop comes as the crypto market has struggled to maintain positive momentum after Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high of more than $126,000 six months ago, as the wider market reacted to fears of an economic slowdown and uncertainty over the fallout from US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February.

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Trading volumes among the top 10 exchanges remained steady at $1 trillion a month in January and February before falling in March. Source: CoinGecko

March was the “weakest month,” according to CoinGecko, with $800 billion in trading volume, the lowest since November 2023.

CoinGecko said that the contraction in crypto markets was worsened by Kevin Warsh’s nomination as US Federal Reserve chair, which signaled “a potential hawkish shift in US monetary policy.”

Related: Three things Bitcoin must do to hold highs above $76K: Analysts

It added that daily trading activity across the crypto market saw “a significant decline” over the first quarter, with average daily trading volumes at $117.8 billion, a drop of 27% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

All of the top 10 spot centralized exchanges recorded declining volumes in the first quarter, CoinGecko said, with HTX, formerly Huobi, seeing “the biggest slump” quarter-on-quarter as volumes dipped 55% to $133.6 billion.

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It said that Bitcoin fell 22% over the first quarter, “continuing to underperform all assets, despite US equity indexes such as NASDAQ and S&P 500 falling -7.1% and -4.8% respectively, their worst quarterly returns since 2022.”

Big Questions: Should you sell your Bitcoin for nickels for a 43% profit?