Bitcoin traded in a narrow range around $86,000 on Tuesday, pausing after Monday’s push toward 33-week highs. The move came as broader risk sentiment appeared steady, while crude oil slid to levels not seen in nearly three weeks—an easing in energy markets that can still ripple into crypto through macro expectations.

At the same time, developments in geopolitics added a layer of uncertainty. US President Donald Trump told the United Nations that an agreement to end the US-Iran war could arrive after November’s midterm elections, a timeline that kept traders weighing the odds of near-term escalation versus delayed diplomacy.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin consolidated near $86,000 after testing fresh 33-week highs at $87,350 on Monday, according to TradingView data.
• US WTI crude fell to around $89 per barrel—its lowest level since late 2024—before bouncing toward $92.
• Glassnode said Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has crossed above its 365-day moving average, a pattern historically seen at the start of past bull markets.
• CryptoQuant highlighted momentum in the MVRV 30-day moving average and suggested a break above key levels could signal an end to prolonged accumulation.

BTC holds near $86,000 as oil weakens under $90

Following Monday’s rally, TradingView data showed BTC/USD volatility cooling. Bitcoin reached $87,350—its highest level since Jan. 29—before easing back into a tighter band near $86,000. For traders, this kind of consolidation after a local high often matters as a test of whether momentum can persist or whether the market needs to reset expectations.

In parallel, US stocks moved sideways as Trump addressed world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York. While he reiterated the intention to reach a deal with Iran, he suggested the timing would be tied to the US midterm election cycle.

Oil’s immediate weakness appeared linked to supply developments. WTI crude dipped as low as $89.16 per barrel, cited as its weakest since early September, before rebounding toward the low $90s. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia had reopened the East-West Pipeline, a key route for moving oil, and quoted three anonymous sources saying it would take six to eight weeks to reach full capacity. That report helped reinforce the idea that supply constraints may be loosening, at least gradually.

On-chain momentum: MVRV ratio crosses a long-term trend

Beyond price action, on-chain data pointed to improving market structure. Glassnode said Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio—an indicator comparing BTC’s market cap to the cumulative price basis of its circulating supply—has moved back above a key long-term benchmark.

According to Glassnode, the MVRV ratio has crossed above its 365-day moving average. In commentary posted to X, Glassnode described the specific “cross” as one it had seen previously in 2019 and 2023 near the beginning of each bull market cycle.

Glassnode frames the MVRV ratio as a way to gauge whether Bitcoin is trading above or below what it calls “fair” value for the supply. In broad terms, higher readings correspond to larger unrealized profits across holders’ wallets.

At the time of the update, Glassnode put the MVRV ratio at 1.62. It had risen from 1.19 on Aug. 16, signaling that the market was, at least by this measure, shifting away from a deeper discount to realized cost. Still, Glassnode noted that the ratio remained well below a commonly cited 3.7 level associated with profitability peaks in earlier bull-market tops.

CryptoQuant watches MVRV MA30 for confirmation of a reversal

While Glassnode focused on the 365-day moving average cross, CryptoQuant emphasized another part of the same on-chain picture: the behavior of the MVRV ratio’s 30-day moving average. In a blog post, CryptoQuant said the MVRV MA30 had broken out from a multi-month resistance area below 1.5, characterizing that move as the kind of shift that can mark the transition out of an extended accumulation phase.

CryptoQuant argued that achieving such a breakout for the first time since January would represent a meaningful inflection—effectively signaling the end of a longer period in which investors accumulated rather than broadly exited at scale.

In its analysis, CryptoQuant added that if the MVRV ratio moves above its current reading of 1.62, it would “confirm the reversal of ongoing bear market.” The firm also referenced Bitcoin’s all-time highs of $126,200 as an upside target under that scenario.

What investors should watch next

With Bitcoin pausing near $86,000 after a sharp test of recent highs, the next signals likely hinge on whether on-chain indicators continue to improve alongside price. Traders and long-term investors will probably look for follow-through that keeps the MVRV momentum intact—while macro drivers such as oil’s ability to hold above or slip below the $90 area remain an additional variable for risk appetite.

The U.S. Senate’s decision last week to let the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act stall has quickly turned into more than a legislative setback for crypto. Industry political groups are already recalibrating their midterm strategy with the 2026 election just weeks away, betting that lawmakers’ voting records will shape who receives financial support—or faces opposition.

On Sept. 15, senators voted 49 in favor and 50 against advancing the CLARITY Act, sharply reducing the odds that Congress will pass the bill before its current window of session time closes and the next Congress convenes in 2027. While some advocates have floated the possibility of another vote during a later phase of the legislative calendar, at least one major crypto-aligned PAC is acting as though the fight will shift to election season.

Key takeaways

• The Senate voted 49–50 against advancing the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15, leaving limited time for passage before 2027.
• Fairshake—backed by Coinbase and Ripple Labs—plans to spend $30 million opposing Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s 2026 Senate race.
• Stand With Crypto says lawmakers’ CLARITY votes could have “consequences” in the 2026 midterms based on how they voted.
• As of Monday, multiple major crypto-aligned PACs had not disclosed new spending with the Federal Election Commission following the CLARITY vote.

CLARITY stalls—and the electoral clock starts ticking

The CLARITY Act’s failure to move forward in the Senate is being treated by crypto stakeholders as a clear signal about which members of Congress are reliable allies on market-structure policy and which are not. Steve Gannon, a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine, told Cointelegraph that the vote “provided the industry with a very clear picture of who are long-term reliable supporters and who are not,” adding that it will be “difficult” for those who opposed CLARITY to argue that the industry should support them financially in the midterms.

That interpretation matters because the U.S. elections ecosystem often translates legislative alignments into fundraising and ad-buy decisions. With the 2026 midterms approaching—an election year widely expected to influence control of both chambers—crypto groups are signaling that voting outcomes on market structure will not be forgotten once campaigns start.

Fairshake targets Sherrod Brown as a test case

One of the clearest indications of how quickly the politics may intensify comes from Fairshake. The PAC, backed by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, announced plans to put $30 million toward opposing Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race.

Brown previously chaired the Senate Banking Committee when Democrats held the majority. According to the reporting, he has also supported policies that are broadly described as hostile to crypto—positioning his potential return as a threat to efforts to advance CLARITY later.

Fairshake’s move also echoes what happened during Brown’s last campaign cycle. The former Ohio senator lost his 2024 reelection bid to Republican Bernie Moreno after Fairshake spent about $41 million opposing the Democrat. The PAC also deployed more than $130 million on ads across the 2024 election cycle, giving a preview of the scale of advertising and pressure it may bring if it believes CLARITY has a realistic path only with the right Senate composition.

Cointelegraph requested comments from Brown’s campaign but did not receive an immediate response.

Crypto-aligned groups warn members of Congress could face consequences

Beyond Fairshake’s spending plans, industry-backed advocacy initiatives are also preparing to translate the CLARITY vote into electoral pressure. Stand With Crypto—an initiative launched by Coinbase in 2023—warned that lawmakers who did not advance the CLARITY Act could face “consequences” in the 2026 midterms based on their voting behavior.

Stand With Crypto is positioned to influence both campaign messaging and PAC targeting, because it is designed to rate politicians based on their stance toward crypto. In a highly contested election year, those ratings can help shape where money goes and which candidates receive priority support.

“The results of [the CLARITY Act] vote make it clear which officials are with our community, and which are against us — and we’ll make sure our advocates are ready to cast their ballots accordingly in this and future elections,” said Stand With Crypto executive director Mason Lynaugh.

That framing suggests crypto groups believe the Senate vote itself will become campaign material: a concrete record that can be highlighted during fundraising appeals, voter outreach, and debate preparation.

What filings show—and what remains uncertain

While the political response is already in motion, there is still a timing and disclosure gap that readers should watch. As of Monday, Fairshake and affiliate PACs Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress had not disclosed expenditures to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) following the CLARITY vote.

FEC filing data cited in the reporting also indicated no post-CLARITY spending by other crypto-aligned PACs, including Fellowship—funded by Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage Digital—and the Digital Freedom Fund, described as backed by Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.

That doesn’t necessarily mean spending won’t follow; political groups may delay disclosures depending on filing cycles, contract timing, or when expenditures are finalized. But it does reinforce that the real impact of the CLARITY vote—beyond messaging—may unfold in stages as campaign finance paperwork catches up.

Meanwhile, some advocates have suggested the CLARITY bill could still return for another vote during later congressional periods. Still, the narrow margin in the Senate—just one vote separating supporters and opponents—highlights how precarious any future attempt could be without a shift in the coalition.

Closing perspective

For crypto participants, the immediate question is not whether CLARITY failed to advance once—it already did—but whether lawmakers who opposed the bill will face sustained electoral pressure and whether that pressure changes the math for future market-structure legislation. With spending plans forming and FEC disclosures still pending for some groups, the next few weeks of campaign developments should offer the clearest clues about how aggressively the industry intends to convert a legislative vote into political leverage.

A trading bot making cheap uniform trades on a Zohran Mamdani Kalshi market has stopped trading after it raised suspicions that the prediction market was wash trading its perp volume. 

The wash trading allegations began last weekend when “Beni,” a pseudonymous quant analyst, claimed Kalshi’s 24-hour trading volume of ether perpetual contracts was $539 million, while open interest was just $3.1 million.

They also flagged a series of $5,500 trades that supposedly made up for 58% of Kalshi’s ETH perp volume across four days. 

Kalshi’s crypto lead, IcoBeast.eth, aggressively rebuffed Beni’s claims, and now Kalshi has posted its own article in which it attempts to debunk the argument and claim the “wash trading rumors are false.”

Read more: Kalshi won’t let you bet on its Supreme Court outcome

Kalshi bot is no longer making strange uniform trades

One specific bot was reportedly trading the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market, specifically on Mamdani’s ticker. This is despite the fact that Mamdani can’t be the presidential nominee due to him not being born in the USA.

Prediction market analyst TickerTracker compared the bot’s activity to a metronome as it bought shares for two tenths of a cent before selling them for one tenth of a cent repeatedly every four seconds across almost two months. 

Today, analysts noted that it stopped trading after the continuous back-and-forth trades. 

Read more: CFTC orders Kalshi to continue operations amid New York lawsuit

Prediction market tool firm Resolve even claimed to have made around $30 a day counter-trading the metronome bot. 

Some users have suggested that the trades might just be a bug, while others suggested that the bot might be “someone farming volume for a higher rate limit tier.”

TickerTracker noted that notional volume within prediction markets can often be inflated, and automated trading can be an ordinary occurrence. 

They added that while these trades might break Kalshi’s rules, “Maybe there’s a simpler explanation for these anomalies that we’re overlooking?”

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What is changing is not simply the tools available to help us make predictions about human biology. It is the speed of the discovery process itself: propose an idea, build it, test it in the physical world, learn from what happened, and begin again. The scientific method itself is beginning to accelerate, and the number of scientific inquiries, opportunities to advance health per dollar spent, is beginning to scale. 

Last month, Merck and Moderna reported that a personalized cancer vaccine for melanoma significantly delayed the disease from spreading. The result is remarkable on its own, and studies are already underway in other settings. What we find particularly exciting is how this growing clinical evidence, combined with AI tools and automated labs, can open the field to more competitors. The evidence reduces uncertainty about the approach, while these tools can lower the cost and time required to pursue it. Together, they can bring more teams and more capital into our fight against cancer and expand the number of promising ideas that will be tested at an unprecedented rate.  

Over the past 18 months, the vast majority of publicly traded companies that pivoted to a BTC treasury strategy have lost money since their initial purchase announcement. 

Globally, nearly 200 public companies hold BTC, according to monitoring service Bitcoin Treasuries, although most have small market capitalizations.

Many adopted their digital asset treasury DAT during a brief mania in the summer of 2025. 

By late July 2025, every new BTC treasury stock was trading below its highest price of the year, and the median drawdown was -52%. Things have only deteriorated since.

Many stocks have now declined more than 90% to date, and some are even delisted from trading entirely.

Even Protos’ generous analysis below, charting the 20 largest BTC treasury stocks which have disproportionate positive performance among their far more numerous peers, shows 12 losses.

The top 20 bitcoin treasury stocks since March 2025

Relative to 18 months ago, the majority of non-mining BTC treasury stocks have negative returns. Mining stocks are excluded here due to their continuous acquisition of BTC through energy-intensive operations and consistent sales of BTC to pay for their power, infrastructure, and personnel.

The price of BTC itself is roughly flat, up less than 3% over the same time span, which allows the chart to speak for itself.

The median 18-month return of this cohort of 20 stocks is roughly -18%.

Five of the 20 have lost more than half their starting value, including several nearly “pure play” BTC treasuries like Remixpoint and Genius Group that planned minimal business operations aside from BTC acquisition during their initial optimism.

If someone had invested an equal amount of money into all 20 stocks 18 months ago, their portfolio would be worth less than its starting value today.

Pure play BTC treasuries

Worse, the returns would be even more negative for pure play BTC stocks, given that the best performers of the cohort — Tesla (+59.8%), Galaxy Digital (+114%), and Norwegian industrial conglomerate Aker (+181%) — have diversified business operations that aided their outperformance for reasons unrelated to BTC.

As a general rule, the more the company-focused on BTC, the worse the stock performed.

Heavily BTC-focused companies like Fold Holdings lost 91% since March 2025, Exodus Movement lost 83%, and Strategy, Semler, Metaplanet, Remixpoint, and Genius Group each lost more than 40%. 

Even Michael Saylor’s $85 billion Strategy, the market leader, has shed half of its common stock price over the past year.

The biggest winner over the past 18 months, Aker ASA, is up 182% despite its BTC unit, Seetee, holding just 0.4% of Aker’s total assets.

It’s no secret that Wall Street analysts are very bullish on Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). The majority rate the stock a buy with an average price target of about $109 per share. This is substantially higher than where the stock is trading as of this writing, at about $64.

Rocket Lab also just posted record revenue numbers in its latest quarterly earnings. Revenue increased 62% year over year, the space company’s backlog ballooned to more than $2.3 billion, and momentum is strongly on Rocket Lab’s side. Still, I’m not quite ready to jump on board.

Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »

Let’s start with the bottom line. Rocket Lab isn’t close to profitable, and it looks like the prospect of becoming profitable is slipping further into the distance. The company’s second-quarter earnings report showed total operating expenses accelerating from the year prior, reaching $142 million in the quarter and $274 million halfway through the year.

Rocket Lab’s management expects cash burn to remain elevated for roughly the two years after its Neutron’s first successful flight. The Neutron inaugural launch keeps getting pushed back as well. Its original target launch was slated for 2025, but even its latest target of Q4 2026 seems likely to slip again to 2027.

Rocket Lab is also facing significant integration risk at the moment, having completed two acquisitions in 2026 and about to close another deal with Iridium Communications, which will add even more complexity.

Rocket Lab is positioning itself for immense growth in the coming years, particularly in a relatively nascent space. Still, profitability is getting pushed further out while the execution risk grows. I would like to see the company navigate these immediate issues before paying for a stock trading at an immense premium. Shares of Rocket Lab are trading at roughly 50 times its sales as of this writing.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again

In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. If you’d invested $5,000 then, you’d be sitting on $2,955,706 today.*

Now, for the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. It’s a key player in the $1.8 trillion space race, and with the stock recently sitting 20% off its highs, the window to get in early is closing fast.

Last week’s US Senate failure to advance a digital asset market structure bill could light a fire under cryptocurrency industry groups seeking to sway key congressional races in the 2026 US midterm election that‘s just 42 days away.

Senators on Sept. 15 voted 49 in favor and 50 against advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, significantly reducing the chances of Congress passing the legislation with limited days in session before 2027.

While some crypto advocates haven’t ruled out the possibility of CLARITY coming up for another vote before the next session of Congress, at least one of the industry’s political action committees (PACs) isn’t taking any chances.

One PAC backed by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, Fairshake, now plans to pour $30 million into opposing Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race. Brown chaired the Senate Banking Committee when Democrats were in the majority and espoused many policies against crypto, making his potential return a challenge to another vote.

“[If Brown] wins, he might well be the deciding vote or one of the two deciding votes in a Democratic majority in the Senate,“ wrote economist Paul Krugman in a Tuesday Substack post. “And we now know that the Democratic Party is not clean as the driven snow. It is not immune to financial influence. It’s not even immune to de facto bribery from crypto.“

Steve Gannon, a partner at law firm Davis Wright Tremaine, told Cointelegraph that the CLARITY vote “provided the industry with a very clear picture of who are long-term reliable supporters and who are not,“ adding:

“It will be difficult for those who voted against Clarity to make the case that the industry should support them financially in the midterms.“

Related: CLARITY Act could get another shot during lame-duck session, policy advocate says

The former Ohio senator lost his 2024 reelection bid to Republican Bernie Moreno after Fairshake spent about $41 million opposing the Democrat. The PAC also spent more than $130 million on ads in the 2024 election cycle, offering a preview for how it might respond when faced with the threat of CLARITY not passing before the midterms.

Cointelegraph requested comments from Brown’s campaign but did not receive an immediate response.

How will the crypto industry react to CLARITY votes in the midterms?

Stand With Crypto, an initiative launched by Coinbase in 2023, warned that lawmakers who failed to advance the CLARITY Act in Congress last week could face “consequences” in the 2026 midterms based on their votes.

The organization responsible for rating politicians based on their positions on crypto could have a significant impact on the elections and on how PACs aligned with the industry use funds to target certain candidates, potentially influencing voters in an election year that could shake up control of the Senate and House of Representatives and give the market structure bill another chance of passing.

“The results of [the CLARITY Act] vote make it clear which officials are with our community, and which are against us — and we’ll make sure our advocates are ready to cast their ballots accordingly in this and future elections,” said Stand With Crypto executive director Mason Lynaugh.

As of Monday, Fairshake and its affiliate PACs Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress had not disclosed any expenditures to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) following the CLARITY vote.

FEC filings also showed no post-CLARITY spending by Fellowship, another crypto-aligned PAC funded by Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage Digital, or the Digital Freedom Fund, a group backed by Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.

Magazine: Is there any chance left to save the CLARITY Act?