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Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin plan depends on capital markets, not price

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Crypto Breaking News

Strategy’s large Bitcoin holdings may provide a cushion against a sharp price drop, but a new analysis argues the company’s real vulnerability is less about Bitcoin volatility and more about how easily it can keep accessing capital markets. In a report shared with Cointelegraph, Regime Intelligence frames the risk as a potential mismatch between Strategy’s balance-sheet obligations and its ability to raise or refinance funds without turning to more frequent Bitcoin sales.

The study points to Strategy’s 840,447 BTC treasury sitting behind approximately $22 billion in debt and preferred claims. That structure, the report argues, makes Strategy’s “Bitcoin accumulation” model dependent on sustained funding capacity to cover large annual obligations, estimated at about $1.76 billion—figures that investors should weigh when evaluating downside scenarios.

Key takeaways

  • Regime Intelligence says Strategy’s exposure is driven more by ongoing access to capital markets than by a near-term Bitcoin liquidity or price shock.
  • Its stress test suggests Bitcoin would need to fall about 96% before the value of holdings no longer covers its convertible notes—shifting the danger to cash-flow obligations rather than forced liquidation.
  • Strategy still must service roughly $1.76 billion in annual preferred dividends and interest even if Bitcoin prices fall significantly.
  • Investors should monitor Strategy’s preferred share price and cash reserves; the report’s author says reserves currently cover about 2.6 times the annualized charges.
  • The analysis warns that if financing conditions worsen during a prolonged decline, raising new capital could become “progressively more difficult or expensive,” potentially reversing the accumulation plan.

Where the balance-sheet risk really sits

A common concern around Bitcoin treasury firms is that a fast drop in BTC prices could trigger forced selling or margin-like calls. Regime Intelligence’s framework pushes back on that intuition for Strategy, emphasizing how the company’s liabilities behave differently from a conventional Bitcoin-backed margin loan.

According to the report, Strategy’s debt structure does not work as a margin product tied to BTC price movements. That means there is no BTC-linked liquidation trigger that automatically compels the firm to sell its holdings simply because Bitcoin falls.

Instead, the report frames the critical question as whether Strategy can continue financing its obligations without needing to shrink its Bitcoin exposure. In its scenario analysis, Regime Intelligence calculates that Bitcoin would have to decline by roughly 96% before Strategy’s BTC holdings and reserves would no longer cover its convertible notes. In other words, the “balance-sheet coverage” point is far away.

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The nearer risk is cash flow: Strategy must continue paying preferred dividends and interest. Under the report’s assumptions, those annual charges total about $1.76 billion, regardless of BTC’s spot price.

Capital markets are the flywheel

Regime Intelligence argues the real stress is not “Will BTC crash?” but “Can Strategy keep the funding flywheel running?” In the author’s view, the ability to refinance, raise, or otherwise secure capital is what allows Strategy to meet obligations without selling more Bitcoin than its accumulation strategy intends.

“In my opinion, MSTR’s principal challenge is to keep the flywheel running in order to cover the annual debt and preferred charges,” Sherif Saad, the report’s author, told Cointelegraph.

Saad also highlighted specific indicators investors can watch. He pointed to Strategy’s preferred share price and its cash reserves, noting that cash currently covers about 2.6 times its annualized charges. That coverage metric matters because it determines how long Strategy can keep paying obligations even if market access tightens.

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But the report’s most important warning is about what happens when multiple risks stack at the same time. Saad said the problem becomes more serious during a prolonged BTC decline if Strategy’s share-related measures deteriorate alongside Bitcoin’s price—conditions that can raise the cost of capital or make financing harder to secure.

“During a prolonged BTC decline, the problem becomes more serious if MSTR’s share price and mNAV decline at the same time,” Saad said, adding that capital would then become “progressively more difficult or expensive.”

This matters because it suggests Strategy’s accumulation strategy could be forced to pivot earlier than investors might expect—depending not only on BTC price performance, but also on how equity and preferred pricing respond to market stress.

Why recent BTC sales changed the debate

Much of the attention around Strategy’s treasury strategy historically centered on executive chairman Michael Saylor’s long-running messaging about not selling Bitcoin. That stance is often interpreted by Bitcoiners as a commitment to protect BTC exposure even during periods when operational or financial obligations arise.

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Still, Strategy began selling Bitcoin this year, which surprised some market participants who expected “never-sell” to dominate decision-making. Cointelegraph previously reported that Strategy sold BTC four times since May, including a recent sale of 1,690 BTC. The proceeds, according to Cointelegraph’s earlier coverage, were used to fund preferred stock dividends, carry out share repurchases, and build a growing US dollar reserve.

While these sales counter the simplest version of a never-sell narrative, Strategy’s leadership has continued to emphasize that the overall accumulation trend remains favorable. Strategy CEO Phong Le, according to Cointelegraph reporting earlier this year, reminded investors that the company has accumulated “about 25 times more” Bitcoin than it has sold so far this year. Le also told CNBC that Strategy intends to resume Bitcoin purchases later this year.

Regime Intelligence’s analysis provides a lens for interpreting that approach: selling may be used as a tactical tool, but the overarching strategy depends on sustained access to capital markets—because without it, the company may find itself leaning more heavily on reserves and additional BTC sales to meet recurring obligations.

What investors should watch next

For now, Regime Intelligence’s stress test suggests Strategy is not threatened by an acute BTC price collapse in the way margin-based structures might be, since the coverage threshold for convertible notes appears far below current levels. The more practical uncertainty lies in how financing conditions evolve if a prolonged downturn hits both Bitcoin and Strategy-linked market metrics. Investors should watch Strategy’s preferred share pricing, reserve levels, and signs that capital raising is becoming more expensive—because those factors determine whether the accumulation “flywheel” can keep running.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Breakout Could Hit $83,000 After 22% Rally, But 3 Risks Remain

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Bitcoin Divergence And Fading Volume

Bitcoin (BTC) price is up 22% in a week and nearing another breakout, and this one looks more dangerous than the last.

That last breakout came on August 19 and ran on trapped bears. The setup now is the reverse, with crowded longs and supply stacked overhead.

Momentum Runs Ahead of Price as Bitcoin Stays Down in 2026

Between May 14 and August 25, Bitcoin price carved a lower high on the 12-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge that tracks how fast price rises or falls, made a higher high.

That mismatch is a hidden bearish divergence. It does not call a top. It warns the older downtrend may resume.

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Bitcoin Divergence And Fading Volume
Bitcoin Divergence And Fading Volume: TradingView

Volume backs it. Buying has thinned since Bitcoin cleared $70,000 on August 19, and RSI at 81.70 has slipped below its signal line at 83.83, while being in the overbought zone. All these signs point to a possible pullback and the resumption of the downtrend.

The downtrend in question is this year. Bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,650 and trades 9.8% lower today.

Bitcoin Is Still Down In 2026
Bitcoin Is Still Down In 2026: BeInCrypto

Momentum shows the crowd’s energy, not who is paying for it.

The Money Behind the Last Breakout Has Switched Sides

The August 19 breakout ran on bears getting squeezed. Shorts lost $2.74 billion in a day against $256.66 million in longs.

That fuel is spent. Over 24 hours Bitcoin liquidations flipped, longs losing $310.03 million against $60.77 million in shorts. BTC alone lost $133.73 million, over a third of the market total.

Crypto Liquidation Heatmap
Crypto Liquidation Heatmap: Coinglass

The crowd has not stepped back despite this flush. Bitcoin open interest, the total value of active futures bets, sits near $25.35 billion against the month’s $25.7 billion high.

The BTC funding rate, a fee paid between traders in perpetual futures, reads 0.000091%. Positive readings mean bulls are still paying to hold.

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Bitcoin Funding Rate And Open Interest
Bitcoin Funding Rate And Open Interest: Santiment

A rally with no shorts to squeeze needs real buyers, and the coins held above decide if it finds them.

A Supply Wall Sits Where the Rally Would Stall

Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), a metric mapping the price at which each circulating coin last moved, shows where those owners bought.

The way up is clear at first. The $82,045 bucket holds 83,800 BTC, or 0.42% of supply, so few sellers wait there.

Thin Supply
Bitcoin URPD Thin Supply: Glassnode

Then the wall arrives. The $84,569 bucket holds roughly 549,200 BTC with the $83,300 band standing first. Both these buckets cover nearly 5% of supply.

URPD Supply Wall: Glassnode
Bitcoin URPD Supply Wall: Glassnode

Those owners sit near break even, so many may sell into strength. However, seven days of Bitcoin ETF inflows would have to absorb them. Regardless of the buying and selling, the BTC chart marks where that trap would spring.

How High Can Bitcoin Price Go?

Bitcoin price trades near $79,054 after peaking at $81,343 on August 25. The run and tight pause form a bullish pole and flag, a pattern where a rally rests before another push.

A 12 hour close above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $80,070 breaks the flag. Clearing $81,343 and the 0.618 level at $81,449 confirms a fresh high.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Above that, $82,430 opens the way to $83,681 (the $83,000 zone), the extension landing inside the 5% supply wall highlighted earlier. Buyers chasing that far meet sellers with no shorts left beneath them.

Underneath, the 100 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend line weighted to recent prices, at $67,367 is closing on the 200 period EMA at $67,666. That crossover favors buyers.

The flag has not broken yet, so BTC support levels matter while it holds. A drop under $77,837 weakens the structure, and $75,545 damages it badly. A 12 hour close above $80,070 separates a run at $83,681 from a slide back toward $75,545.

Analyst’s View: The bearish case has an expiry date. Push above May’s high near $82,041 and the lower high disappears, and the divergence goes with it. That leaves a narrow band where the bears are already wrong and the buyers have not yet met the sellers above, the most awkward place this Bitcoin price rally could end.

The post Bitcoin Breakout Could Hit $83,000 After 22% Rally, But 3 Risks Remain appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Revolut Launches EURR Euro Stablecoin in Europe

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Revolut Launches EURR Euro Stablecoin in Europe

[Update Aug. 26, 2026, 8:57 UTC: Added comments from a Revolut spokesperson.]
Revolut has begun rolling out its first stablecoin, a euro-pegged token called EURR, to selected customers in Denmark, Poland and Portugal. 

In an announcement shared with Cointelegraph on Wednesday, the company said that the phased rollout will expand to other European Economic Area (EEA) markets later this year, subject to product, operational and regulatory readiness. 

EURR is issued by Bridge Building S.A., the Luxembourg-based entity of Stripe-owned stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge. Revolut said EURR will be integrated into its retail app, with plans to support multiple blockchain networks and transfers to external wallets. 

The launch adds a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)-compliant stablecoin to Revolut as it withdraws Tether’s USDt from the EEA and Switzerland. Revolut previously said remaining USDT balances would be converted into customers’ base currencies after Aug. 31.

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“Denmark, Poland, and Portugal were selected for their market size, where approximately 2 million customers will be involved in the initial rollout,” a Revolut spokesperson told Cointelegraph.

EURR will initially launch on Ethereum as part of the phased rollout. “External wallet transfers will be available immediately for select customers and more broadly as liquidity builds,” the spokesperson said. Revolut’s standard crypto trading and remittance limits will apply, while fiat transactions will carry no fees or spreads.

EURR is designed to maintain a value of one euro and is backed by reserves held and managed by Bridge in accordance with the European Union’s MiCA rules. Revolut Digital Assets Europe is offering the token. 

Revolut said EURR is the first step in a broader stablecoin strategy and that it is developing tokens denominated in other currencies through separate regulatory pathways. The company did not identify which currencies it is pursuing. 

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Related: Revolut receives in-principle approval from UAE authorities for crypto services

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Japan targets early 2030s launch for blockchain-based stock and bond settlement system

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Japan targets early 2030s launch for blockchain-based stock and bond settlement system


Japan’s regulators are racing to modernize national settlement systems to prevent institutional investors and foreign capital from fleeing to overseas markets.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Rejected at $80K, Ripple’s XRP Plunges Hard as Rally Cools: Market Watch

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Bitcoin’s rally that began a week ago culminated yesterday with a surge to over $81,000 for the first time since May, when the asset was halted and driven south by a few grand.

Most larger-cap alts followed a similar trajectory, with XRP slumping by over 4%, while ZEC dumped by more than 7% after the debut of Grayscale’s ETF.

BTC Stopped at $81K

The primary cryptocurrency exploded out of the gate last Wednesday. It stood below $65,000 for weeks before the bulls took over. At first, they pushed it to $70,000 within hours. After a brief retracement, BTC skyrocketed again and surged to almost $80,000 on Friday to mark a three-month peak.

This meant that it had gained over $15,000 in less than 48 hours. As such, it was almost inevitable to correct before the bulls could step on the gas pedal once again. This took place during the weekend when BTC slipped to $75,000. The next leg up started on Monday and culminated on Tuesday.

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As reported yesterday, bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time in 15 weeks amid these macro factors. However, it couldn’t keep climbing and has dropped by roughly $3,000 since that local peak.

Nevertheless, it remains up by more than 22% on a weekly scale, while its market dominance sits inches below 58% and its market cap is at $1.575 trillion on CG.

BTCUSD August 26. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD August 26. Source: TradingView

XRP, SOL, DOGE Rejected

Ethereum failed at $2,500 once again and is now down to $2,450 after a 1.3% daily decline. BNB is below $700 once again, while Ripple’s XRP was rejected at $1.50 and now trades at $1.42 after a major 4.5% daily decline. SOL touched $100 yesterday, but it’s well below that level now.

Even more painful declines come from DOGE (-5%), ADA (-5%), XLM (-5%), and CC (-6%). ZEC has dropped the most from the larger-cap alts despite Grayscale’s ETF launch, and is under $790 now.

In contrast, RAIN has skyrocketed by more than 20% and now trades above $0.0175.

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The total crypto market cap has declined by around $60 billion in a day and is down to $2.740 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview August 26. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview August 26. Source: QuantifyCrypto

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Rejected at $80K, Ripple’s XRP Plunges Hard as Rally Cools: Market Watch appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Wall Street Raised Coinbase and Strategy (MSTR) Targets. Only One Leaves Real Upside

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COIN and MSTR Stock Performance.

Two Wall Street banks lifted their crypto stock targets on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs raised its figure on Coinbase (COIN) stock, while Canaccord Genuity did the same for Strategy (MSTR). Both kept Buy ratings.

The calls followed a run of steep gains across crypto-linked equities. Both stocks pushed higher as a broader market rally picked up speed last week.

Goldman Points to Derivatives and Prediction Markets

The bank lifted the COIN price target to $196 from $173. This works out to a roughly 13% increase. Goldman framed the case around two separate drivers rather than one.

“Buy-rated COIN offers upside optionality from any persistent improvement in the crypto backdrop, and continues to see strong idiosyncratic growth in newer businesses (including derivatives and prediction markets),” the bank said.

The stock closed at $187.16 on Tuesday, up 4.28%. This leaves the new target only about 5% above COIN’s current trading price. Goldman had carried a $235 target on COIN back in March before trimming it.

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MicroStrategy Stock Target Jumps 35%

Canaccord Genuity made a similar move on Strategy (MSTR) the same day, raising its target to $175 from $130. The $175 target sits roughly 38% above Tuesday’s close of $126.83.

“Like a breath of fresh air, the setup for MSTR has materially brightened over the last couple of weeks, in our view,” the bank noted.

Price action supports the shift in tone. MSTR has gained 34.66% since August 19, while COIN has added 27.14% over the same stretch, according to TradingView data.

COIN and MSTR Stock Performance.
COIN and MSTR Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

The target revision marks a turn in direction, though not a full recovery. Sentiment soured through the summer. Analysts across Wall Street cut their COIN targets on July 31 after a third straight earnings miss.

Both targets now imply further upside from Tuesday’s closes. Whether analysts keep raising them may depend on whether last week’s move extends into September.

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The post Wall Street Raised Coinbase and Strategy (MSTR) Targets. Only One Leaves Real Upside appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Why the Trump Administration Is Purging ‘Woke’ Art From U.S. Embassies

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Why the Trump Administration Is Purging ‘Woke’ Art From U.S. Embassies

For “Young Artists After Siamesas 1960,” Wiley collaborated with students from the Facultad de Artes and the Altos de Chavon School of Design, both prominent art schools in the Dominican Republic. The subjects in the painting were modeled by four local art students. The work drew inspiration from two Dominican art works, Celeste Woss y Gil’s 1940 painting “Desnudo Feminine” and Gilberto Hernández Ortega’s 1960 work “Siamesas.”

The painting was part of the embassy’s permanent exhibition, assembled through the State Department’s Art in Embassies program. Established in 1963, the program is aimed at fostering cross-cultural dialogue and diplomacy through art. In 2015, the State Department awarded Wiley its Medal of Arts in recognition of his contributions to the program.

But in recent years, Wiley faced criticism from conservative commentators over his 2012 painting “Judith and Holofernes.” The painting portrays a Black woman holding the severed head of a white woman, which Wiley later described as a play on the “kill whitey thing.” The work, currently on view at the North Carolina Museum of Art in Raleigh, reimagines a 17th century painting by Giovanni Baglione that depicts the biblical story of Judith beheading an invading general to save her town.

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Summer Is Ending With a ‘Blood Moon’ Lunar Eclipse. Here’s What To Know.

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Summer Is Ending With a 'Blood Moon' Lunar Eclipse. Here's What To Know.

It’s not often that 3.6 billion people—or 44.4% of the world’s population—look at the same thing at the same time. And it’s not often that something comes along that’s worth the attention of all those billions. But that will happen on the evening of Aug. 27 when much of the world will be able to witness a blood moon lunar eclipse, during which 96% of the face of the full moon will fall into Earth’s shadow, glowing a deep orange-red in the process.

Lunar eclipses occur during a full moon, when the Earth is positioned between the sun and the moon, blocking all or most of the solar light that otherwise bathes the lunar surface. On average, lunar eclipses occur two to three times per year, though total lunar eclipses, when the moon is entirely shadowed, make up only 29% of those events. The autumnal color the moon takes on is due to a trick of the Earth’s atmosphere. Not all of the sunlight that would otherwise be striking the moon during an eclipse is blocked by the Earth; some of it leaks around the periphery of the planet and manages to reach the moon. That light streams through the Earth’s atmosphere during its passage to the moon, and some of the wavelengths of visible light—particularly the blue—are absorbed and scattered. What’s left is principally the red spectrum which partially lights the moon. All total lunar eclipses result in blood moons. 

In theory, a lunar eclipse ought to occur once a month. On every orbit around the Earth on its 27.3-day journey, after all, the moon will always pass through a point at which the planet sits between it and the sun. But the plane of the moon’s orbit around the Earth is tilted about five degrees compared to the Earth’s orbit around the sun. That means that on some passages behind the Earth the moon avoids the shadow, soaring above or ducking below the planet. 

How long will the lunar eclipse last?

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An eclipse of the moon plays out slowly. The one that will begin on the evening of Aug. 27 and continue into the early hours of Aug. 28 will last a total of five hours and 38 minutes. Even the most dedicated eclipse chaser, however, may not be able to take it all in. Depending on where in the world an observer is—and this eclipse will be visible in Europe, Africa, North and South America, and western Asia—the moon may set before the eclipse is done or rise after it’s already begun. That will be the case in the Americas, where observers will see an eclipsed moon come up in the skies. Finding a flat area with few buildings and a clean sight line may be necessary to witness the eclipse, since in many places the moon will be low in the sky, close to the horizon. In the U.S., the eclipse will begin at 9:23 p.m. ET on Aug. 27, and end at 3:01 ET the next day.

There are three phases of any lunar eclipse—the penumbral, partial, and total or maximum. The penumbral phase occurs first, when the moon moves into the faint, outer reaches of the Earth’s umbra, or shadow. The partial phase comes next, when the true, darker shadow of the Earth begins to cover the lunar disk. The total or maximum phase is when only a small portion—or none at all—of the moon remains unshadowed. For the upcoming eclipse, the penumbral phase will take one hour and ten minutes, the partial phase one hour and 39 minutes, and the maximum phase, when the moon will be 96% obscured, will also take one hour and 39 minutes. That maximum shadow will occur at 12:12 a.m. ET. The eclipse will then return to the partial and penumbral phases before the moon soars on and leaves the Earth’s shadow behind.

What is an ‘eclipse season’?

This eclipse occurs in a busy time for the skies. On Aug. 12, just over two weeks before the lunar eclipse is set to occur, there was a total eclipse of the sun, visible in Spain, Portugal, Iceland, Greenland, and Siberia. There is actually such a thing as an eclipse season, a month-long stretch occurring twice a year—in the summer and winter—when the moon passes the point in its five-degree orbit that the Earth, moon, and sun align in a way to make both types of eclipses possible.

If you fancy eclipses, you’re well advised to take this one in while you can. The next total lunar eclipse will not be until Dec. 31, 2027 to Jan. 1, 2028. New Years Eve fireworks will be going off that night, but they will be nothing compared to the sky show the Earth, the sun, and the moon will serve up.

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Pi holds above $0.085 support as crypto market recovery loses momentum

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Pi holds above $0.085 support as crypto market recovery loses momentum

Key takeaways

  • Pi Network trades around $0.0900 on Wednesday, maintaining mild upside momentum above the critical $0.0853 support.
  • The broader cryptocurrency market is retreating as investors take profits following last week’s double-digit gains.
  • A break above $0.1022 could open the path toward $0.1204.

Pi Network is showing modest upside movement on Wednesday, with PI trading around $0.0900 and remaining above an important technical support level.

However, the broader cryptocurrency market’s recovery is losing momentum as investors lock in profits following last week’s sharp gains. PI’s technical indicators also remain mixed, reflecting a lack of decisive buying pressure.

Profit-taking slows the crypto market rally

The broader cryptocurrency market is edging lower this week after several major assets recorded double-digit gains during the previous week.

CoinGlass data shows that approximately $373 million in leveraged positions was liquidated over the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for $310 million of that total, indicating that the latest pullback caught bullish traders off guard.

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The elevated long liquidations suggest renewed selling pressure as investors reduce risk and take profits from the recent rally.

Despite the pullback, overall market sentiment remains strongly positive. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 80 on Wednesday, placing the market firmly within the “extreme greed” zone.

The reading indicates that bullish sentiment persists even as traders assess whether the current decline is a temporary correction or the beginning of a broader reversal.

Pi Network holds above the $0.0853 support

Pi Network trades near $0.0900 at the time of writing, maintaining a neutral short-term outlook.

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The token remains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0853. This level is calculated from PI’s decline between the $0.1341 high and the $0.0703 swing low.

As long as PI holds above $0.0853, buyers may retain an opportunity to extend the recovery. However, the token needs stronger momentum to overcome the resistance levels above its current price.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1022 represents the next major barrier for Pi Network.

This level rejected PI’s recovery attempt in mid-July, reinforcing its importance as a potential supply zone. A decisive daily close above $0.1022 could strengthen the bullish outlook and extend the advance toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1204.

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Such a breakout would also move PI above the psychologically important $0.1000 threshold, potentially attracting additional buying interest.

Pi Network’s momentum indicators show signs of stabilization but do not yet confirm a strong bullish trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains marginally above its signal line on the daily chart. This position points to a slight bullish bias, although the narrow separation between the lines reflects weak momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index stands near 51. The neutral reading suggests that buyers and sellers remain relatively balanced, leaving PI vulnerable to broader market movements.

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PI/USD 4H Chart

The $0.0853 Fibonacci level remains the immediate support to monitor. A confirmed daily close below this level could invalidate PI’s near-term recovery outlook and increase selling pressure. In that scenario, the token could revisit the $0.0703 swing low.

Conversely, continued consolidation above $0.0853 would preserve the possibility of another attempt to break the $0.1022 resistance.

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Dollar Recovery Loses Momentum: USD/CAD and USD/CHF Resume Their Declines

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Dollar Recovery Loses Momentum: USD/CAD and USD/CHF Resume Their Declines

The US dollar has resumed its decline following a corrective recovery, as the support behind the currency proved insufficient to sustain the rebound. Selling pressure increased as long-term US Treasury yields fell amid reports that the US Treasury was prepared to expand its bond-buyback operations. Larger buybacks support the government bond market and can contribute to lower yields, reducing the dollar’s interest-rate advantage and limiting its recovery.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. So far, however, this factor has not been strong enough to generate a sustained appreciation in the currency.

Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic data. Revised second-quarter GDP figures, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal income and spending data, and durable goods orders are all due to be released.

According to forecasts, US GDP growth could be revised down from 2.1% to 1.5%, while the core PCE price index is expected to show annual growth of 3.3% and a monthly increase of 0.2%. A combination of slower economic growth and persistent inflationary pressure could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, leaving policymakers to balance the risk of economic weakness against the need to keep inflation under control.

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Markets will also be watching comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues about how policymakers are assessing current inflation risks and signs of an economic slowdown.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF fell back towards 0.8000 after recovering to 0.8045 last week, forming a dark cloud cover pattern in the process.

If dollar weakness continues, the pair could break below 0.7980 and move towards the recent low around 0.7950. The bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price establishes itself firmly above 0.8045.

Key events for USD/CHF:

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  • today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations;
  • today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index;
  • today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has also resumed its decline following an unsuccessful attempt to extend the recent recovery. Technical analysis points to a potential move towards the 1.3740–1.3780 area, with a dark cloud cover pattern having formed on the daily chart.

A renewed corrective recovery could develop if the pair establishes itself firmly above 1.3870.

Key events for USD/CAD:

  • today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian wholesale sales;
  • today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
  • today at 18:45 (GMT+3): speech by Thomas Barkin, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The dollar’s recovery is losing momentum as Treasury yields decline, although geopolitical tensions continue to provide some support for the US currency as a safe-haven asset.

The next moves in USD/CAD and USD/CHF will depend heavily on today’s US economic data and the market’s reaction to fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-expected figures could increase pressure on the dollar and support further declines in both pairs, while stronger data could restore some demand for the US currency and trigger another corrective recovery.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Why AI Watermarks and Detectors Could Backfire

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Why AI Watermarks and Detectors Could Backfire
—JDawnInk—Getty Images

Claude now watermarks AI-generated text to comply with European Union transparency rules. OpenAI and Google add invisible fingerprints to AI-generated images. And Substack is touting a feature that scans pieces for signs of AI. Will we finally be able to tell what’s real on the Internet? My take: not even close. 

In fact, AI watermarks and detectors may leave us worse off by creating a false sense of confidence in content marked as genuine.

Watermarks and detectors are gaining traction as we lose our ability to trust our senses online. Look up the Will Smith eating spaghetti test, and you’ll see just how far AI has come. A 2023 AI-generated video shows the actor slurping spaghetti, face distorted, in a way that breaks physics. By 2025, AI was producing lifelike renditions. Deepfakes are so good that experts recommend families develop secret codewords to identify one another. 

“But I know a fake when I see it,” someone might say. 

Unfortunately, research consistently shows that you do not. This can feel especially hard to accept given the abundance of AI slop rocketing around the Internet. You may even start to think you can sniff out offending content. It might work, for a little bit. It almost never lasts. Any signal that becomes discernible is one a sophisticated actor will find ways to avoid. 

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We’ve seen this story before. During the earliest days of the Internet, visual polish at least told you something. Major institutions had the resources needed to produce well-designed websites. Janky-looking sites, on the other hand, screamed “scam!” Information experts directed Internet users to dwell on features such as design, broken links, and typos. But when the Internet changed, the advice didn’t. 

A study I led, published in 2022, found that 96% of America’s leading colleges and universities offered outdated advice on how to evaluate online information—long after platforms like Wix, Squarespace, and Photoshop made it easier for bad actors to create fake but convincing-looking websites. Inexpensive software made slick graphics ubiquitous. Educators, however, continued to instruct Internet users to search for visual clues like a game of Where’s Waldo?

The most dangerous legacy of this aesthetic fixation is the inverse illusion: the cognitive tendency to believe that if the presence of a signal proves one thing, its absence proves the opposite. Yes, a site with misspellings that claims to show aliens still isn’t legit. But a beautiful site with a dot-org domain can also be harmful. In 2019, our research group found that nearly half of hate groups had dot-org domains. Bad actors know how to adopt the trappings of credibility. 

The same is true with AI. Even if visible flaws sometimes linger, their absence doesn’t mean content is genuine. Yet, too often, experts offer surface-level clues to identifying AI-generated content. This is why in the lead-up to the 2024 elections, Stanford Professor Sam Wineburg and I warned about public officials who advised citizens to pay attention to lighting, strange shadows, or other visual cues to identify deepfakes, even after AI content stopped making these errors. Many 2026 guides to spotting AI content mislead readers with the same poor advice. 

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Which brings us to AI watermarks and detectors. These approaches, based on hidden signals in content, promise that while we can’t always spot the signs, their algorithms can. 

I’m not a software engineer. Yet I was able to easily strip metadata from some AI-generated images just by screenshotting them. Anthropic confirms that file metadata can be “stripped through format conversion, re-saving, screenshots, or other means.” Watermarks like SynthID are stronger and can persist after screenshots. But I was able to use a free online tool to remove a SynthID watermark. 

Google admits that the accuracy of detecting watermarked AI text is “greatly reduced” when users thoroughly rewrite what they generate, and that it “is not designed to directly stop motivated adversaries from causing harm.” More broadly, open-weight AI models that can run locally, outside platform terms and conditions, guarantee the spread of unmarked content.

Third-party detectors, too, have a spotty track record. I’ve regularly run AI-generated text through detectors that said it was human and vice versa. Many studies of text, image, and audio detectors find that they don’t work very consistently, and yet, their findings are used as the basis for public accusations. Every detector must confront an arms race with humanizer tools and other workarounds motivated actors find. 

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I would argue that the biggest problem for detectors and watermarks remains the inverse illusion. Just because content lacks a watermark doesn’t mean it wasn’t produced or edited with AI. As Anthropic notes: “lack of a detected mark doesn’t mean the content wasn’t AI-generated or processed.” Deferring judgment to AI detectors leaves us vulnerable to bad actors who know how to launder content and make it pass muster.

This is a confusing time. Many of us are, understandably, uncertain. In one recent pilot, our research group showed 117 students a confident chatbot answer about local history with hallucinated facts. Half said they weren’t sure if it was true. One student said AI is sometimes right and sometimes wrong and “you never know which is which.” 

But just because we can’t trust our eyes or place full faith in detectors doesn’t mean we can’t trust anything. Rather than hunt for visual clues or outsource judgment to detectors and watermarks, we can turn to reputation and context. It’s easy to fake content. It’s much harder to fake a good reputation that’s validated by credible sources. 

The next time you see unfamiliar content online, resist the urge to ask, “Does this look like AI?” or run the content through a detector. Instead, ask yourself, “Do I trust where this information is coming from?” Open a new tab and check if reputable people and organizations confirm what you’re seeing. 

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In an era of dwindling trust, we should not fork over ours to cheap signals or cheap software.

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