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The BTC price is less volatile than South Korea’s Kospi stock index right now

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The BTC price is less volatile than South Korea's Kospi stock index right now

Bitcoin has a well-earned reputation as a volatile asset that has historically doubled or halved in a matter of months. That may be changing.

Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility, currently 42%, has remained below 50% this month, according to TradingView data. Compare that with South Korea’s benchmark Kospi stock index, whose market capitalization is about twice the largest cryptocurrency’s, which hit 74% last week and is still around 51%. Another more volatile equity market is Pakistan, whose KSE 100 index is also around 51%.

Bitcoin’s volatility — a measure of how wildly prices have swung — has steadily declined in recent years, particularly since the introduction of spot ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024. These investment vehicles have increased institutional participation, bringing in more risk-managed capital flows that have helped dampen price swings.

The relative stability underscores its appeal as a geopolitical hedge, holding its value when macro forces like wars wreak havoc on traditional assets. BTC has historically outperformed gold, the S&P 500 and other traditional assets during wars, as River, a bitcoin-only financial institution, pointed out early this month.

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Still, most major regional markets and their global counterparts exhibited less volatility than BTC in the period. Which raises the question: Why makes South Korea, the world’s 14th-largest economy, different?

Korean issues

The higher volatility in Korean stocks reflects, to a great extent, the gyrations in the cost of fossil fuel, which doesn’t really apply to bitcoin.

The Kospi fell from 6,340 points in late February to 5,000 by the end of March, before rebounding to record highs above 6,380 points.

The initial selloff occurred in the run-up to the war between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition, which started Feb. 28, eventually leading to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil supply route. This disruption and the resulting spike in oil prices hurt South Korea because the country imports nearly all its fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas from the Middle East.

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Later, the index found its footing as the conflict eased and the two sides negotiated a temporary ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday. Pakistan’s stock market saw similar swings, with its economy equally, if not more, exposed to energy market disruptions.

Throughout this time, bitcoin held relatively steady, trading mostly between $65,000 and $75,000, supported by renewed inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

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Crypto World

Crypto Scam Targets Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz: Report

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Crypto Scam Targets Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz: Report

Fraudulent actors posing as Iranian authorities have reportedly sent messages to shipping companies whose vessels remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in cryptocurrency for safe passage.

On Monday, maritime risk company Marisks issued a warning saying unknown groups had contacted shipowners claiming to represent Iranian security services and requesting transit “fees” in Bitcoin (BTC) or USDt (USDT) in exchange for clearance through the strait, according to Reuters.

“These specific messages are a scam,” Marisks reportedly said, adding that they do not originate from Iranian authorities. Tehran has not publicly commented on the claims.

The alerts come as the strategic waterway remains largely closed following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, previously handled around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports before hostilities escalated in the region.

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Earlier this month, reports said Iran was considering charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a tariff payable in Bitcoin, with empty tankers allowed free passage while others could be charged around $1 per barrel of oil.

Related: Iran views BTC as strategic asset, but USDt still dominates oil tolls: BPI

Crypto “transit fee” scam demands verification docs

The reported scam messages instruct recipients to submit documentation for verification before being assigned a “fee” payable in cryptocurrency, after which safe transit would allegedly be granted at a pre-agreed time.

In one example cited by Marisks, the message stated that Iranian security services would assess eligibility before determining payment in BTC or USDt, framing crypto transfers as a condition for unimpeded passage.

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Trump says he won’t allow Iran to impose tolls on ships. Source: The Middle East

The company also suggested that at least one vessel recently targeted by gunfire while attempting to exit the strait may have received such fraudulent instructions, though the information has not been independently verified.

Cointelegraph reached out to Marisks for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Related: Bitcoin community weighs in on reports of Iran’s crypto toll for oil ships

Crypto payments to Iran could trigger sanctions risks: Chainalysis

Shipping companies considering paying transit fees in cryptocurrency to Iran could face serious sanctions exposure, according to Chainalysis senior intelligence analyst Kaitlin Martin.

She told Cointelegraph that any payments linked to Iranian-controlled waterways could be treated as “material support,” potentially violating US and international sanctions targeting entities such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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