Crypto World
The firm whose AI paper knocked the whole market is out with another big call
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 23, 2026.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Citrini Research, the firm that rattled markets earlier this year with a provocative bearish call on artificial intelligence, is out with another warning — this time arguing an oil-driven slowdown could send equities lower.
Founder James van Geelen said persistently high energy prices risk weighing on consumers and corporate earnings, creating a backdrop where stocks struggle even as the Federal Reserve eventually pivots toward rate cuts.
“If the war doesn’t end, equities will go lower,” van Geelen wrote in a Substack post early Wednesday, pointing to geopolitical tensions as a key driver of sustained oil strength.
Stocks recouped some of the losses Wednesday following reports that the U.S. has given Iran a plan to bring the conflict to an end, sending crude prices tumbling. However, the two countries appear to be very far apart, with Tehran turning down the U.S.’s ceasefire offer and demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest call builds on Citrini’s growing reputation for contrarian macro views. In February, the firm published a widely circulated note arguing that the AI boom itself could ultimately hurt the economy, pushing unemployment as high as 10% if white-collar jobs are replaced by machines.
Slowdown ahead?
The core of Citrini’s current thesis is that elevated oil prices act as a tax on growth, eroding purchasing power and tightening financial conditions without the Fed needing to take further action. With policy rates already near neutral, van Geelen argued that simply holding rates steady would be restrictive enough as the energy shock filters through the economy.
“We live in a different world now, rates are close to neutral,” he wrote. “If oil stays high, it would be restrictive enough simply to leave them where they are while oil prices filter through the rest of the economy and cause a slowdown.”
That dynamic leaves equities particularly vulnerable, he said. Even in a scenario where geopolitical tensions ease quickly, Citrini sees limited upside for stocks. Consumers would still emerge “slightly weaker” after absorbing higher fuel costs, dampening the strength of any rebound, he said.
The firm’s view also challenges a common bullish narrative that rate cuts would provide a backstop for equities. Instead, van Geelen suggests any eventual easing would likely come in response to deteriorating growth, a backdrop historically associated with further equity declines rather than sustained rallies.
“The Fed knows that raising rates isn’t going to magically make more oil supply,” he wrote, arguing policymakers are more likely to “look through” the shock before ultimately cutting rates as conditions worsen.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Stablecoins gain ground as global payment tools bridging blockchain and traditional finance.
Summary
- Stablecoins power faster payments, but infrastructure providers bridge fiat, compliance, and blockchain access for users.
- Fintech apps rely on stablecoin APIs to enable fast, compliant payments without building complex global infrastructure.
- Stablecoin adoption grows as providers handle fiat conversion, KYC, and payments behind the scenes for apps.
Stablecoins are quickly becoming part of the global payments stack.
Fintech apps use them to settle transactions faster. Remittance platforms use them to move money across borders. Payroll companies use them to pay global contractors.
But while stablecoins settle on blockchain networks, users still interact with traditional financial systems.
Someone still needs to convert fiat into stablecoins. Someone needs to handle compliance and identity verification. Someone needs to connect cards, bank transfers, and local payment methods to blockchain networks.
This is where stablecoin payment infrastructure comes in.
Companies like Transak provide the regulated infrastructure that connects traditional payment methods with stablecoin networks, allowing fintech apps, wallets, and marketplaces to integrate stablecoin payments without building the underlying financial rails themselves.
What is stablecoin payment infrastructure?
Stablecoin payment infrastructure refers to the systems that allow applications to convert traditional currencies such as USD, EUR, or GBP into stablecoins and move those funds across blockchain networks.
These systems typically provide several core capabilities.
- Fiat to stablecoin conversion
- Payment method connectivity, such as cards and bank transfers
- Identity verification and compliance infrastructure
- Fraud monitoring and transaction screening
- Global regulatory coverage
- Stablecoin liquidity and settlement
Without this infrastructure, stablecoins would be difficult for most businesses or consumers to access.
Providers such as Transak operate this infrastructure layer, enabling fintech companies to integrate stablecoin payments through a single API while relying on existing regulatory and payment systems.
What infrastructure do companies use to add stablecoin payments?
When a fintech app enables stablecoin payments, several components work together behind the scenes.
Most stablecoin payment flows rely on three main layers.
- Blockchain networks like Ethereum, Polygon, or Solana serve as the settlement layer for recording transactions.
- Stablecoin issuers like Circle provide fiat-backed digital tokens that maintain a stable value pegged to traditional currencies.
- Infrastructure providers like Transak bridge the gap by connecting traditional banking and compliance systems with blockchain networks.
Platforms such as Transak enable users to convert fiat currencies into stablecoins using payment methods like cards, bank transfers, or local payment systems. They also enable the reverse process, allowing users to convert stablecoins back into fiat and withdraw funds to bank accounts.
By integrating providers like Transak, fintech companies can enable stablecoin payments without building their own compliance systems, banking relationships, or payment acquiring infrastructure.
How fiat to stablecoin conversion works
For most users, stablecoin payments begin with converting traditional money into digital tokens.
This process is often referred to as a stablecoin on-ramp.
A typical fiat-to-stablecoin conversion flow looks like this.
- A user selects a payment method such as a card or bank transfer.
- The payment infrastructure processes the transaction and verifies the user’s identity.
- Fiat currency is converted into stablecoins through liquidity providers.
- The stablecoins are delivered to the user’s wallet or application.
On-ramp providers like Transak handle the complex parts of this process, including compliance checks, payment processing, fraud monitoring, and regulatory requirements.
This allows applications to provide stablecoin access without operating their own financial infrastructure.
What is a stablecoin on-ramp?
A stablecoin on-ramp allows users to convert traditional currencies into stablecoins using familiar payment methods.
For example, a user might purchase stablecoins using a credit card, a bank transfer, or a regional payment system such as SEPA or PIX.
On-ramp providers like Transak connect these payment systems with blockchain networks, allowing users to access stablecoins directly from within wallets or fintech apps.
This infrastructure is essential for making stablecoins accessible to mainstream users.
Examples of stablecoin payment infrastructure providers
Several companies provide infrastructure that enables applications to integrate stablecoin payments.
These providers focus on connecting traditional financial systems with blockchain networks while handling compliance and regulatory requirements.
Examples of stablecoin payment infrastructure providers include:
- Transak
- MoonPay/Iron
- Coinbase infrastructure tools
- Stripe’s crypto-related services
Among these providers, Transak focuses specifically on enabling global fiat to stablecoin connectivity for fintech platforms, wallets, remittance services, and digital marketplaces.
Through its infrastructure, companies can allow users to fund transactions using local payment methods and move value through stablecoin networks.
How fintech apps integrate stablecoin payments
Most fintech applications integrate stablecoin infrastructure through APIs provided by payment infrastructure platforms.
For example, when a user opens a wallet or financial application and chooses to buy stablecoins, the application typically connects to a provider such as Transak behind the scenes.
The provider manages payment processing, identity verification, regulatory compliance, and conversion between fiat currencies and stablecoins.
This approach allows fintech companies to add stablecoin functionality without needing to build global payment infrastructure themselves.
As a result, stablecoin payments can be integrated relatively quickly while remaining compliant with financial regulations.
Why infrastructure matters for stablecoin payments
While blockchain networks provide the settlement layer, most users still interact with traditional financial systems when entering or exiting stablecoin networks.
Without infrastructure connecting these systems, stablecoins would remain difficult to use in everyday financial products.
Payment infrastructure providers such as Transak bridge this gap.
They connect cards, bank transfers, and regional payment systems with blockchain networks while managing compliance, fraud monitoring, and regulatory licensing.
This infrastructure allows fintech companies to focus on building products while relying on established payment rails.
The role of infrastructure in the future of stablecoin payments
Stablecoins are increasingly becoming part of the backend infrastructure powering modern financial applications.
- Remittance platforms use them to move money globally.
- Payroll companies use them to pay international teams.
- Fintech apps use them to settle transactions more efficiently.
But for these systems to work at scale, reliable infrastructure is required to connect traditional financial systems with blockchain networks.
Companies like Transak provide this infrastructure layer, enabling applications around the world to integrate stablecoin payments while relying on compliant, regulated financial rails.
As stablecoin adoption continues to grow, the role of infrastructure providers such as Transak will become increasingly important in connecting traditional money with digital settlement networks.
FAQs about stablecoin payment infrastructure
What companies provide stablecoin payment infrastructure?
Examples of stablecoin payment infrastructure providers include Transak, MoonPay, Coinbase infrastructure tools, and Stripe’s crypto-related services.
Among these providers, Transak focuses on enabling fintech platforms, wallets, remittance services, and digital marketplaces to connect traditional payment methods with stablecoin networks through a single API.
How do fintech apps integrate stablecoin payments?
Most fintech applications integrate stablecoin payments by connecting to payment infrastructure providers through APIs.
Providers such as Transak handle the complex parts of the process, including payment processing, identity verification, regulatory compliance, and conversion between fiat currencies and stablecoins.
What is a fiat-to-stablecoin on-ramp?
A fiat-to-stablecoin on-ramp allows users to convert traditional currencies into stablecoins using payment methods like cards, bank transfers, or local payment systems.
On-ramp infrastructure providers such as Transak connect traditional financial systems with blockchain networks, allowing users to access stablecoins directly within wallets, fintech apps, or marketplaces.
This infrastructure is essential for making stablecoins accessible to mainstream users.
Why do companies use infrastructure providers instead of building stablecoin systems themselves?
Building stablecoin payment infrastructure internally can be complex, cost millions, and time-consuming (over 18 months in some cases).
Companies must obtain regulatory licenses, establish banking relationships, implement compliance and identity verification systems, and support multiple payment methods across different regions.
Infrastructure providers like Transak simplify this process by offering regulated payment rails that fintech companies can integrate through APIs.
This allows product teams to launch stablecoin features without managing global financial infrastructure themselves.
How are stablecoins used in cross-border payments?
Stablecoins allow value to move across blockchain networks quickly and globally. This makes them useful for cross-border payments such as remittances, global payroll, and international marketplace payouts.
However, users still need reliable ways to convert between fiat currencies and stablecoins. Infrastructure platforms such as Transak enable these conversions by connecting traditional payment methods with stablecoin networks.
Can stablecoins be used for payroll or contractor payments?
Yes. Many payroll platforms and global businesses are exploring stablecoins as a way to pay international contractors more efficiently.
In this model, companies convert fiat into stablecoins, transfer the funds globally, and allow recipients to convert them back into local currency.
What role does Transak play in the stablecoin ecosystem?
Transak provides a regulated payment infrastructure that connects traditional financial systems with stablecoin networks.
Through its APIs, wallets, fintech companies, remittance platforms, payroll providers, and marketplaces can enable users to convert fiat currencies into stablecoins and withdraw stablecoins back into traditional currencies.
Transak handles compliance, identity verification, payment processing, fraud monitoring, and global payment coverage, allowing applications to integrate stablecoin functionality without building their own financial infrastructure.
Is stablecoin infrastructure different from crypto on-ramps?
Crypto on-ramps were originally designed to help users purchase cryptocurrencies using traditional payment methods.
As stablecoins have become more widely used for financial applications, on-ramp infrastructure has expanded to support payment flows such as remittances, payroll, and treasury operations.
Platforms like Transak operate both as crypto on-ramp providers and as broader stablecoin payment infrastructure, enabling fintech companies to integrate digital asset payments within their applications.
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Stablecoin issuer Circle, the company behind the USDC (USDC) dollar-pegged token, wrongfully froze 16 wallets in connection with an ongoing civil legal case in the United States, according to onchain investigator and security researcher ZachXBT.
The wallets in question belonged to crypto exchanges, online casinos and foreign currency exchange businesses, which “do not appear related at all,” ZachXBT said.
“An analyst with basic tools could have identified, within minutes, that these were operational business wallets from the thousands of transactions they process,” he said
In a separate social media post, the onchain investigator wrote that the case is “sealed,” and Circle had “zero basis” to freeze the fiat-pegged tokens. He added:
“In my 5-plus years of investigations, it could potentially be the single most incompetent freeze I have seen. This is what happens when you outsource your freezing decisions to literally any random federal judge instead of having a process.”
Cointelegraph sought comment from Circle about the claims but did not obtain a response by the time of publication.
Centralized stablecoins can be frozen by the issuer, which goes against the core value proposition of cryptocurrencies as permissionless, censorship-resistant assets, critics of the technology say.
Related: ZachXBT says fake X accounts used viral war content to drive crypto scams
Crypto executives warn that regulated stablecoins are gateway to CBDCs
“This is your 10th reminder that centrally issued stablecoins are not actually yours; they can be frozen, unlike cash,” Mert Mumtaz, founder of remote procedure call (RPC) node provider Helius, said in response to the USDC wallet freezes.
Jean Rausis, co-founder of the Smardex decentralized trading platform, said that provisions in the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory framework laid the groundwork for a privately managed central bank digital currency (CBDC) to emerge.
Centralized stablecoins effectively give the issuer the same financial surveillance and asset freezing capabilities that a standard CBDC would provide, he said.
Former US lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed Rausis’s warning in May 2025, arguing that regulated stablecoins under the GENIUS bill are a “CBDC Trojan Horse.”
Magazine: Coinbase hack shows the law probably won’t protect you: Here’s why
Crypto World
Bitpanda, Vision Web3 Foundation, and Optimism Launch Vision Chain for European Institutional Finance
TLDR:
- Vision Chain is built on the OP Stack and designed to meet Europe’s MiCAR and MiFID II regulatory standards.
- Bitpanda removes the complexity of private blockchain systems, helping institutions move from pilots to production.
- The Vision Token (VSN) ties network revenue to token buybacks, linking ecosystem activity to long-term stability.
- Bitpanda’s seven million users gain access to tokenized assets previously reserved for professional market participants.
Vision Chain has entered the market as a blockchain layer built for European financial institutions. Bitpanda, the Vision Web3 Foundation, and Optimism developed the network on the OP Stack.
It connects traditional finance to the global onchain economy. The chain operates within the EU’s MiCAR and MiFID II frameworks and aligns with DORA resilience principles.
This launch targets a critical gap that has left European institutions relying on closed, proprietary networks with limited liquidity.
Replacing Closed Networks With Open, Compliant Infrastructure
European financial institutions have long relied on closed, proprietary blockchain networks. These systems lack the liquidity and interoperability required for broader market participation.
Vision Chain offers a standardized, managed infrastructure as a replacement. Partners can move from isolated pilots to live production-grade deployments.
Vision announced the launch, noting Vision Chain merges Ethereum-level openness with a framework suited to Europe’s regulatory environment. The chain gives institutions a public blockchain they can practically use.
This design reflects growing institutional demand for compliant, interoperable access. The network is built to serve both regulated institutions and the broader DeFi sector.
Bitpanda removes the operational complexity of building private blockchain systems for partners. This lowers costs and shortens the path from pilot to production.
The network uses MiCA-compliant Euro stablecoins to settle all network and transaction fees. This removes the currency volatility that often comes with fees on public blockchains.
Bitpanda CEO Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad described the shift as a foundational moment for European capital markets. “Today, we still talk about digital assets, but in the future all assets will likely be digital,” he said.
He added that European financial institutions have been ready for this shift for years, but the infrastructure has been missing. Vision Chain, he noted, combines the openness of public networks with the reliability institutions require.
Vision Token Anchors the Network’s Economic Model
The Vision Token (VSN) forms the commercial backbone of Vision Chain’s ecosystem. Issued by the Vision Web3 Foundation, VSN is a crypto-asset tied to network activity.
A portion of revenue generated by the network goes toward buying and removing tokens from circulation. This creates a direct link between network usage and ecosystem stability.
The network also expands access for Bitpanda’s over seven million users. They gain entry to tokenized investment products once reserved for professional market participants.
Banks and fintechs can issue high-quality assets directly on the chain. DeFi developers can build compliant products using those institutional-grade assets.
Fabian Reinisch, President of the Vision Web3 Foundation Board, said the chain marks a key milestone for the foundation. “By aligning public blockchain technology with institutional requirements and long-term ecosystem incentives, we are laying the groundwork for a new generation of European financial applications,” he stated.
Vision Chain was built to align public blockchain technology with institutional needs. The aim is transparent, interoperable networks for European finance.
Optimism’s role centers on its OP Enterprise model, which handles chain operations and upgrades. CEO Jing Wang said the model lets partners focus on product development rather than infrastructure management.
“Vision Chain reflects the growing demand for blockchain infrastructure that meets institutional standards without sacrificing the openness of Ethereum,” Wang said. Together, the three organizations aim to strengthen Europe’s role in the global onchain economy.
Ether’s (ETH) liquid supply on the Ethereum network continues to tighten, with exchange netflows, rising staking participation, and declining exchange reserves all pointing to a shrinking pool of readily available tokens.
Analysts suggest this supply contraction may mark the early stages of a “new phase,” potentially establishing a stronger structural price floor for ETH in the market cycles ahead.
ETH staking locks in 33.1% of the circulating supply
Ethereum’s staking share continues to rise, with about 38.1 million ETH locked on Wednesday, equal to roughly 33.1% of the total supply. Staking infrastructure provider Everstake noted that this is the highest level recorded, marking a steady shift toward illiquid capital rather than tradable inventory. The staking platform said,
“This steady reduction in liquid supply, combined with ongoing demand, creates the conditions for a structurally stronger price environment.”
Crypto analyst Gaah added that this scale of locked ETH creates a visible contraction in the liquid supply.
The ETH validator activity reinforces this trend. The entry queue holds 2,876,752 ETH with an estimated wait time of nearly 50 days, signaling sustained demand to stake.
In contrast, the exit queue contains only 40,504 ETH, with a wait time under 17 hours. The churn rate, capped at 256 validators per epoch, limits how quickly supply can re-enter circulation. This indicates that even if sentiment shifts, unlocking the supply takes time.
Such conditions slow the pace at which ETH can return to exchanges, leaving a significant portion of the supply inactive for trading.
Related: Ethereum price rally pauses at $2.2K: What will trigger breakout?
ETH exchange balances hit multi-year lows
ETH exchange flows have shown consistent outflows across major venues over the past few weeks. Crypto analyst Amr Taha highlighted a $1.67 billion ETH withdrawal from OKX on March 22. Likewise, Binance recorded two separate outflows above $300 million in early February.
The large negative netflows signal that ETH is moving away from exchanges rather than being positioned for sale.
Multiple exchanges reporting sizable withdrawals above, point to a broader contraction in exchange-held supply. The lower balances reduce immediate selling pressure from traders and tighten the available liquidity for spot markets.
CryptoQuant data shows the ETH supply on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since 2016, with Binance-specific balances currently sitting near its December 2020 lows of roughly 3.3 million ETH.
With fewer coins available for trading, the price sensitivity to demand increases, which may allow ETH to move strongly above its current range near $2,000 to $2,200, once momentum returns.
Related: Ethereum devs up security efforts with new ‘Post-Quantum’ team
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Circle’s 22% post-CLARITY Act selloff is “excessive,” arguing USDC’s payments moat and a $1.9t stablecoin market by 2030 justify a $75b valuation target.
Summary
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called Circle’s post-regulatory selloff “excessive,” projecting the stablecoin issuer could be worth $75 billion by 2030.
- Hougan cited Citigroup’s revised forecast that the global stablecoin market could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, arguing the fundamental growth thesis remains intact.
- William Blair analysts added that Circle’s cross-border B2B payments utility is undiminished, even as regulatory uncertainty persists around profit-sharing rules.
Bitwise Asset Management pushed back Wednesday against the market’s reaction to Circle’s recent stock plunge, with CIO Matt Hougan arguing that the stablecoin issuer’s valuation could reach $75 billion by 2030 — well above current levels — and that investors are overreacting to legislative noise. According to The Block, Hougan made the remarks in response to Circle’s (CRCL) share price cratering roughly 22% on Monday after a tougher draft of the CLARITY Act raised the prospect of banning stablecoin yield.
Hougan said the pending legislation has not altered the underlying growth logic of the stablecoin market. He pointed to Citigroup’s updated forecast, which revised its 2030 base case for total stablecoin issuance to $1.9 trillion — up from a prior estimate of $1.6 trillion — and set a bull case of $4.0 trillion, citing accelerating adoption by payment networks, corporations, and financial institutions. Hougan stressed that interest income is not the core driver of stablecoin growth, directly countering the market’s primary fear.
Equity analysts at William Blair echoed the bullish sentiment. In a recent note covered by crypto.news, Blair argued that USDC’s role as a payments “base layer” is being repriced by the market, with Circle’s compliance infrastructure, banking relationships, and cross-chain integrations forming a durable competitive moat — particularly in cross-border B2B payments.
The selloff that prompted Bitwise’s intervention came after the CLARITY Act’s latest draft threatened to restrict stablecoin issuers from distributing yield to holders. The concern is that such a restriction would neutralize one of the key competitive levers that Circle’s rivals use to attract liquidity, though some analysts — including Hougan — argue this could actually advantage Circle by leveling the playing field.
Circle separately froze the USDC balances of 16 business hot wallets late Monday, disrupting operations at several exchanges and platforms, further rattling investor confidence. The move revived longstanding centralization debates around USDC’s architecture, adding to the week’s negative sentiment around the stock.
USDC currently has over $75 billion in circulation, and Circle has processed over $6 trillion in adjusted transaction volume to date. The company reported $1.68 billion in revenue for 2024, the vast majority of it generated through interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term government bonds. Citigroup’s revised $1.9 trillion base-case projection assumes stablecoin issuance will grow at roughly 20% annually through the end of the decade, driven by crypto-native ecosystems, e-commerce adoption, and the substitution of overseas dollar holdings.
William Blair, which maintains an outperform rating on Circle, noted USDC’s 30-day adjusted transaction volume recently hit nearly $6 trillion — dwarfing Tether’s $1.1 trillion over the same period — as evidence that Circle’s network effects are compounding regardless of short-term regulatory turbulence.
Bitwise’s $75 billion target implies significant upside from Circle’s pre-crash valuation and signals that institutional asset managers view the current dip as a buying opportunity rather than a structural break. The firm’s argument, in essence, is that stablecoins will grow with or without yield — and that Circle is best positioned to capture that growth.
The CFTC’s first no-action letter for a self-custodial wallet and a joint SEC-CFTC move classifying XRP as a digital commodity give non-custodial XRP infrastructure a clearer path into regulated derivatives.
Summary
- The CFTC issued its first-ever no-action letter for a self-custodial crypto wallet provider on March 17, granting Phantom Technologies regulatory relief without requiring broker registration.
- XRP treasury firm Evernorth flagged the move as a pivotal moment for XRP, noting the ruling’s core principle — that non-custodial platforms are not financial intermediaries — aligns directly with XRP’s design architecture.
- XRP was simultaneously classified as a “digital commodity” in a joint SEC-CFTC framework released on March 17, pushing the token above $1.50 before it pulled back to $1.41.
A regulatory development that passed largely unnoticed last week is drawing fresh attention from the XRP (XRP) community. On March 24, XRP-focused treasury firm Evernorth flagged that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission had quietly issued its first-ever no-action letter for a self-custodial crypto wallet software provider — a move Evernorth described as being “hidden by the SEC commodity classification” announced the same day.
The CFTC published Letter No. 26-09 on March 17, granting no-action relief to Phantom Technologies Inc., the developer behind the Phantom wallet — one of Solana’s most widely used self-custodial wallets. The letter stated that Phantom could facilitate derivatives trading access for its users without registering as an introducing broker or associated person, provided it never takes custody of user funds.
Evernorth summarized the significance of the ruling in a post on X: “The core principle: if you don’t hold customer funds, you’re not a financial intermediary.” The firm argued this framework has direct implications for XRP’s infrastructure, given Ripple’s long-standing design philosophy around non-custodial settlement.
Chart analyst @ChartNerdTA amplified Evernorth’s post with the headline “XRP Was DESIGNED For This,” pointing to the convergence of the CFTC no-action letter and XRP’s simultaneous commodity classification as compounding regulatory tailwinds for the token.
XRP Commodity Designation Provides Institutional Framework
On the same date as the Phantom letter, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretive release classifying XRP as a “digital commodity,” formally placing the Ripple-associated token outside the scope of U.S. securities law. Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty responded swiftly on X, stating: “We always knew XRP wasn’t a security — and now the @SECGov has made clear what it is: a digital commodity.”
XRP’s trading volume surged 125% to $3.22 billion on March 17 as the commodity designation was published, pushing its market cap to approximately $93.4 billion and briefly overtaking BNB’s position in the global rankings. The token is currently trading at $1.41, with a 24-hour volume of $2.29 billion and a market cap of $86.4 billion.
The Phantom no-action letter falls under CFTC Letter 26-09, issued by the agency’s Market Participants Division. It allows self-custodial wallets to offer front-end interfaces for CFTC-regulated derivatives — such as futures contracts on designated contract markets — without triggering broker registration requirements, as long as the wallet operator imposes proper risk disclosures, never controls user funds, and maintains records and compliance policies comparable to those of a registered introducing broker.
The implications for XRP are strategic rather than immediate. Evernorth noted that the ruling establishes a regulatory pathway for non-custodial platforms — like those built on the XRP Ledger — to interface with regulated derivatives markets without being reclassified as financial intermediaries. The firm described this as a “significant milestone, particularly for self-custody solutions.”
The CFTC‘s posture under newly confirmed Chairman Brian Quintenz has shifted toward a pro-innovation stance, with the agency advancing a Memorandum of Understanding with the SEC on March 11, 2026, to streamline oversight for dually registered firms and reduce regulatory fragmentation across digital asset markets.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin moved upward against gold as U.S.-Iran tensions rose, defying traditional market flight-to-safety patterns.
- Money rotated out of gold, silver, and stocks, with Bitcoin capturing part of that displaced capital in real time.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional allocation in 2026 may be reshaping how the asset responds to geopolitical stress.
- The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is now a key metric to watch as markets assess whether this safe haven shift is structural.
Bitcoin is drawing fresh attention as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate. Traditionally, gold has served as the go-to asset during global uncertainty.
However, recent market movements suggest a possible shift. Money appears to be rotating away from gold, silver, and equities.
Bitcoin is absorbing some of that capital. Whether this marks a structural change or a temporary trend remains to be seen.
Bitcoin Captures Flight-to-Safety Capital as Gold Loses Ground
Market observers noted an unusual pattern as U.S.-Iran tensions rose recently. Typically, investors exit risk assets and move into gold during geopolitical stress. This time, Bitcoin moved upward while gold and silver saw outflows alongside equities.
Milk Road, a widely followed crypto newsletter on X, pointed this out directly. The post noted that money was rotating out of gold, silver, and stocks, with Bitcoin catching some of the flight-to-safety bid. That behavior stands out because it rarely happens during geopolitical flare-ups.
Bitcoin shares several core traits with gold. Both assets carry finite supply, operate without counterparty risk, and function as stores of value. However, Bitcoin offers added advantages in borderless access and instant liquidity across any geography.
In situations involving sanctions, capital controls, or cross-border asset freezes, Bitcoin becomes increasingly practical.
Investors who need access to value regardless of location or political circumstance find it more functional than physical gold in those scenarios.
Institutional Presence and ETF Access Add Weight to Bitcoin’s Safe Haven Case
The broader context of this market moment matters. The crypto landscape in 2026 looks markedly different from past cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now live, and institutional allocation to the asset class is well established.
That institutional base changes how Bitcoin responds to macro stress. In 2022, crypto dropped sharply in risk-off environments.
Today, with deeper liquidity and broader participation, the asset may behave differently under similar conditions.
Milk Road’s post suggested watching the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio closely. If Bitcoin holds or gains ground while geopolitical stress remains elevated, it could signal a more durable shift in how markets treat the asset.
The $100,000 price level remains the target many analysts reference. Reaching it through a geopolitical risk rotation rather than speculative momentum would represent an uncommon path in Bitcoin’s history.
That said, no rotation narrative carries certainty. Bitcoin has historically sold off alongside other assets when risk appetite collapsed broadly.
The next few weeks will determine whether current patterns hold or reverse as the situation between the U.S. and Iran develops further.
The Ethereum Foundation has unveiled its “Strawmap,” a defensive strategy deploying 7 hard forks to achieve full Quantum Resistance by 2029.
The roadmap, drafted by the Foundation’s quantum researchers, targets a radical reduction in block finality to under 16 seconds while migrating the $260 billion network to post-quantum cryptography before the threat materializes.
- Roadmap Scope: The “Strawmap” outlines seven incremental upgrades starting in 2026 to overhaul the consensus layer.
- Technical Target: The protocol aims to deploy STARK-based signatures and achieve Single Slot Finality to neutralize quantum decryption threats.
- Strategic Context: Developers are racing against a roughly five-year window before quantum computers could potentially crack current cryptographic keys.
The Mechanics: Single Slot Finality and Cryptographic Migration
The plan is not a patch; it is a reconstruction. The Strawmap outlines a “Ship of Theseus” approach to replacing Ethereum’s cryptographic foundations without pausing the chain.
The process begins with the Glamsterdam hard fork, tentatively targeted for the first half of 2026, followed by Hegota later that year.
The primary technical objective is the implementation of Post-Quantum Cryptography. Current blockchain security relies on elliptic curve algorithms that theoretical quantum computers could crack in hours.
The upgrades will transition the network toward hash-based signatures (like XMSS and SPHINCS+) and STARKs, which are resistant to brute-force quantum attacks.
This migration is critical for Layer 2 stability as well, where infrastructure halts, such as the recent Arbitrum Sepolia testnet outage, demonstrate the cascading effects of network-level disruptions.
Beyond security, the roadmap prioritizes speed via Single Slot Finality (SSF). Currently, Ethereum requires approximately 15 minutes to fully finalize a block. The Strawmap targets a reduction to under 16 seconds through a consensus redesign known as “Minimmit.” This change would make transaction reversal practically impossible almost immediately after execution, closing the window for reorganization attacks.
The Ethereum Foundation’s quantum team was blunt in their assessment. “Quantum computing will eventually break the public-key cryptography that secures ownership, authentication, and consensus across all digital systems,” the group stated Tuesday.
Strategic Risk: The Race Against Computational Brute Force
This is not a routine upgrade. It is a preemptive strike against an existential threat.
Traditional hacks exploit smart contract logic. A quantum breakthrough skips all of that. It derives private keys directly from the ledger. No code vulnerability needed. The Strawmap exists because that scenario is no longer science fiction.
The Ethereum Foundation executes all 7 Hard Fork upgrades on the 6-month cadence outlined. Quantum resistance goes live before commercial quantum computing becomes viable. Ethereum becomes the settlement layer for global finance with a security guarantee that lasts a century. Single-Slot Finality neutralizes a key speed advantage that faster, centralized L1 competitors like Solana currently hold.
Or the coordination trap closes in. Seven distinct forks in four years demand flawless execution. Ethereum timelines have slipped before.
The Merge. Dencun. If the Strawmap drags into the 2030s, the network enters a quantum emergency window in which the hardware to crack the chain is available before the defenses are live. Quantum researcher Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers told DL News that Bitcoin-style cryptography could be cracked within 4 to 5 years. That timeline puts enormous pressure on every fork in this sequence.
Watch the EIP inclusion lists for the Glamsterdam fork in early 2026. That is the signal that this has moved from research to engineering.
Ethereum is rebuilding its engine at full speed. The result sets the security standard for the entire digital asset class.
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The post Ethereum Unveils 2029 ‘Strawmap’: 7 Hard Forks to Beat Quantum Threats appeared first on Cryptonews.
Ethereum’s on-chain dynamics are signaling a tightening of liquid supply, driven by rising staking participation and sustained withdrawals from exchanges. With roughly 38.1 million ETH staked, about 33% of the circulating supply is now locked in validator deposits, a level that market watchers say marks a meaningful shift toward illiquid, long-hold positions. At the same time, exchange reserves have continued to dwindle, suggesting less readily available supply for fast sales in spot markets. Some analysts argue this could lay the groundwork for a more resilient price floor as demand persists.
Analysts emphasize that the combination of higher staking and shrinking exchange buffers may create a more two-sided market — less supply chasing bid demand in the near term, which could support ETH prices during repeated market pauses. Still, observers caution that the full implications will depend on how quickly stake participation expands further and how exchanges respond to ongoing outflows during turbulent periods.
Key takeaways
- About 38.1 million ETH are staked, equating to roughly 33.1% of circulating supply, the highest level on record and signaling a shift toward illiquid capital.
- The staking pipeline remains robust: an entry queue of about 2.88 million ETH carries an estimated wait of ~50 days, while an exit queue of around 40,500 ETH has a near-term wait of under 17 hours.
- Exchange reserves for ETH have fallen to multi-year lows, with notable withdrawals from major venues (including OKX and Binance) and overall outflows indicating reduced liquid supply on hand for trading.
- CryptoQuant data shows ETH balances on exchanges at a level not seen since 2016, with Binance balances hovering near Dec-2020 lows, around 3.3 million ETH.
- Analysts caution that these dynamics could strengthen support levels and potentially enable sharper moves higher in a rebound, especially if demand remains firm and momentum returns.
Staking expands, liquidity tightens
Ethereum’s staking activity continues to climb, with the validator ecosystem absorbing more capital as participants lock their ETH into proof-of-stake security. The latest figures show about 38.1 million ETH staked, representing roughly one-third of the circulating supply. Stakeholders have framed this as a structural shift away from tradable inventory toward long-hold, illiquid capital that cannot be readily tapped for selling in a market downturn.
In a commentary thread, Everstake — a prominent staking infrastructure provider — highlighted that this steady reduction in liquid supply, coupled with ongoing demand, is fostering a stronger price environment over the longer term. The argument rests on the idea that less ETH available on the market during selloffs could lessen downside pressure and support price stability as buyers step in.
“This steady reduction in liquid supply, combined with ongoing demand, creates the conditions for a structurally stronger price environment.”
Supporting the staking trend, the validator queue shows continuing interest in securing ETH commitments. ValidatorQueue tracks a total of approximately 2.88 million ETH awaiting validation, with an estimated wait of close to 50 days. This cadence underscores that demand to participate in staking remains solid, even as the time to earn staking rewards lengthens for new entrants.
Conversely, the exit queue — the amount of staked ETH seeking withdrawal — remains relatively modest by comparison, at around 40,500 ETH with a wait time under 17 hours. The protocol’s churn cap of 256 validators per epoch further constrains how quickly liquidity can re-enter circulation. Taken together, these dynamics imply that even if sentiment shifts, the market will not see a rapid flood of previously staked ETH returning to tradable supply.
Exchanges drain reserves, reducing selling pressure
Another visible trend is the steady outflow of ETH from centralized exchanges. Over the past several weeks, inflows to major venues have given way to sustained net withdrawals, a signal that traders are moving ETH off exchanges in anticipation of longer-term holding or staking rather than immediate sale.
Notable episodes include a $1.67 billion ETH withdrawal from OKX on March 22, coupled with large, multi-hundred-million-dollar outflows observed at Binance in early February. These actions contribute to a shrinking frame for immediate selling and tighten liquidity in spot markets, making it harder for sellers to press prices downward on short notice.
CryptoQuant data reinforces the narrative of a tightening supply on exchanges. ETH balances on exchanges have declined to their lowest levels since 2016, with Binance’s holdings approaching the lows last seen in December 2020 — roughly 3.3 million ETH. The reduced exchange stockpile implies less readily available inventory to meet selling pressure, potentially amplifying price sensitivity to demand shifts when buyers re-enter the market.
With fewer ETH perched on exchange books, the market could become more responsive to shifts in appetite, allowing price moves to be more pronounced when momentum returns. While the current range has circled roughly around $2,000 to $2,200, tighter supply conditions can help push the next leg higher if demand proves resilient.
What this implies for ETH’s trajectory
Taken together, the tightening liquid supply picture points to a broader structural development rather than a short-term swing. The market is witnessing a gradual rebalancing: more ETH locked in staking, fewer coins available on exchanges, and a churning ecosystem that keeps unlocks measured by epoch-based rules. Analysts describe this as the early stage of a potential “new phase” in ETH’s supply dynamics, one that could raise the floor beneath prices during a broader market downturn and support more durable gains when risk appetite returns.
As one analyst noted, the combination of rising staking participation and constrained liquidity means ETH could respond more decisively to renewed demand compared with earlier cycles. In practice, this translates to a market where price resilience and upside velocity may become more dependent on sustained demand and staking inflows than on near-term supply shocks.
For investors and builders, the evolving balance of staking, validator activity, and exchange reserves underscores the need to watch on-chain flows alongside price action. If staking continues to rise while exchanges remain tight, ETH could see a more pronounced price response to positive catalysts, including network upgrades, developer activity, or favorable macro conditions.
As readers monitor the next steps, key questions remain: Will the pace of staking accelerate further, and how will major exchanges respond to continued outflows? How will the evolving on-chain liquidity profile interact with market sentiment during the next cycle of price discovery? And how might these structural shifts influence ETH’s role in a broader crypto ecosystem that increasingly prizes security, efficiency, and long-hold capital?
Keep an eye on staking metrics and exchange flow data in the coming weeks, as they will offer early signals about how ETH’s supply dynamics are evolving and where price action could follow next.
Some traders have ignited a fresh market debate by giving a prediction that the XRP price is fundamentally undervalued, arguing the asset should already be trading at $10. This bold assertion surfaced during a broader valuation discussion sparked by real estate mogul Grant Cardone, who recently posited a $280,000 target for Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin struggles to reclaim its October highs, XRP currently trades at $1.42, showing a modest disparity between market reality and traders’ theoretical valuation. The 7x gap between the current price and the $10 target implies a market capitalization surge to roughly $610 billion, a figure that would fundamentally reshape the crypto hierarchy.
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XRP Price Prediction: Can Ripple Break Resistance to Target $10?
At press time, XRP is changing hands between $1.41 and $1.42, holding precariously above the critical support floor of $1.27. This level, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, serves as the primary defense against a deeper slide toward $1.11. Analysts describe the current zone as “capitulation territory,” where short-term holders often exit at unrealized losses, potentially clearing the books for accumulation.
For the $10 narrative to gain technical traction, XRP must first dismantle the descending trendline resistance at $1.51. Beyond that, a formidable supply wall exists in the $1.76–$1.80 range, where nearly 1.85 billion tokens were previously accumulated.
Long-term data offers a mixed outlook. While optimistic models target $2.45 to $8.00 through 2026, sustaining a price above $10 would likely require the XRP Ledger to capture significant volume from traditional finance sectors, potentially aided by SWIFT’s evolving blockchain pivot.
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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels
While established assets like XRP face the heavy lifting required to move multi-billion dollar market caps, capital is increasingly rotating toward infrastructure plays resolving Bitcoin’s scalability issues. Smart money often seeks early-stage protocols where technological breakthroughs drive repricing, rather than relying solely on legacy asset appreciation.
Leading this new wave is Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 to integrate the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). The project has already raised a staggering $32 million in its presale, signaling massive institutional and retail interest in high-performance Bitcoin infrastructure.
What could Hyper be cooking up? — Bitcoin Hyper (@BTC_Hyper2) March 25, 2026
https://t.co/VNG0P4GuDo pic.twitter.com/XHI9QxT4Tv
Bitcoin Hyper distinguishes itself by delivering sub-second finality and the programmability of Solana while anchoring to Bitcoin’s security layer. Priced currently at $0.0136, the token offers a low entry point with a huge 36% APY staking rewards.
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
The post XRP Price Prediction: Is $10 Plausible? appeared first on Cryptonews.
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