Key Highlights

• Q4 earnings per share reached -$0.01, surpassing analyst consensus of -$0.05 by $0.04
• Quarterly revenue totaled $25.23M, exceeding Wall Street projections of $22.91M–$24.5M
• Shares climbed approximately 8% to reach $12.56 in Wednesday trading
• Company insiders offloaded more than 2.39 million shares valued at roughly $26.4M during the previous quarter
• Analyst consensus rating stands at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $16.63

Amprius Technologies delivered quarterly results that exceeded analyst projections, propelling shares higher by roughly 8% during Wednesday’s session.

The battery technology company reported quarterly earnings per share of -$0.01, outperforming Wall Street’s consensus forecast of -$0.04 to -$0.05 by $0.03 to $0.04. Quarterly sales registered at $25.23 million, surpassing analyst expectations that spanned from $22.91M to $24.5M.

Shares concluded midday trading at $12.56, representing a $0.93 gain for the session. Volume activity hit 9.53 million shares, exceeding the typical daily average of 8.12 million.

Amprius Technologies, Inc., AMPX

However, beneath the positive earnings surprise, the financial metrics reveal ongoing profitability challenges. The company recorded a net loss of $24.4 million for the quarter, representing a significant increase from the $11 million loss reported in the comparable year-ago period.

Net margin registered at -53.16% while return on equity came in at -38.85%. While these figures remain deeply negative, investors appeared to focus primarily on the upside earnings surprise and improving operational trajectory.

Looking forward to fiscal 2026, company management issued guidance calling for EPS of approximately -$0.06, indicating continued red ink in upcoming quarters.

Notable Insider Transaction Activity

While market participants reacted positively to the quarterly results, recent insider selling activity suggests a more measured outlook from company leadership.

Chief Technology Officer Constantin Ionel Stefan divested 492,827 shares on January 22nd at a mean price of $12.04 per share, generating proceeds of approximately $5.93 million. This sale reduced his ownership position by 39.7%.

Board member Kang Sun unloaded 950,548 shares on January 16th at $11.07 per share, totaling roughly $10.52 million in proceeds — representing a 40.38% decrease in his holdings.

Cumulatively, company insiders have disposed of 2,392,269 shares valued at approximately $26.4 million during the preceding three-month period. Current insider ownership stands at 12.8% of outstanding shares.

Institutional investors control 5.04% of the company. Bank of America expanded its position by 31.1% during Q4, while Rhumbline Advisers boosted its holdings by 61.1%.

Wall Street Analyst Coverage and Targets

The analyst community maintains a generally optimistic outlook on AMPX shares.

Needham launched coverage on January 29th, assigning a Buy rating alongside a $20 price objective. Craig Hallum initiated coverage on February 23rd, also establishing a Buy rating with a $17 target.

Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded its price target from $12 to $16 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating with a $17 target in December.

Weiss Ratings represents the sole bearish voice, continuing to maintain a Sell rating.

Currently, eight analysts assign Buy ratings to the stock, while one maintains a Sell recommendation. The overall consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with a mean price objective of $16.63.

The equity has traded within a 52-week range of $1.70 to $16.03 and has delivered a remarkable 506% return over the trailing twelve months.

Amprius management is slated to participate in the Cantor Global Tech Conference along with additional investor meetings scheduled for March, which the company highlighted as part of its ongoing shareholder engagement initiatives.

As part of his ideas when acquiring Twitter a few years ago, Elon Musk touted the plan of turning it into the “everything up.” An important missing piece of that plan for X is its payments arm – X Money.

It appears that the effort is starting to take shape. With Musk’s extensive history and involvement in the crypto industry, the question many now ask is – will it have crypto integrations?

Already Live in Closed Beta

During a presentation in February 2026, Elon Musk said that X Money is already live and that the app is being handled in a closed beta within the company.

He also confirmed that it should soon move to a limited external beta before eventually rolling it out worldwide.

This is further confirmed by the fact that William Shatner was tapped by the company to give out invites.

Shatner himself shared some screenshots, while also outlining that the app will feature a debit card with cashback available.

Here’s a few more screenshots. There’s a debit card with cash back too! 😳😱 pic.twitter.com/yeKE1gXAjQ

— William Shatner (@WilliamShatner) March 3, 2026

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What About Crypto, Though?

Musk has been pretty vocal in his involvement with the industry, especially when it comes to Dogecoin. Let’s not forget that he spearheaded a government agency that carries the DOGE abbreviation after all. Amusingly enough, his posts about the meme coin have caused multiple massive price pumps.

Indeed, it seems that the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.

Musk reposted a tweet by Teslaconomics, which, among other things, outlined the following:

… Then, there will be high-yield savings, you can invest, you can get loans, have money market accounts, maybe even treasury access, cool smart cashtags that let you see live stock prices in your timeline and execute trades seamlessly, crypto integration, potentially full asset management…

Musk simply said, “This will be big.”

But what does it mean for crypto? Well, even if X Money does support crypto payments, it wouldn’t be the first one. Many financial applications, including Revolut, support crypto transactions. Even PayPal does.

So, it’s not necessarily a major catalyst to look forward to, but it certainly cements cryptocurrencies’ place in general finance when it comes to retail-facing applications.

That mass adoption really seems to be en route.

Key Takeaways

• Annual 2025 revenue decreased 33% to $5.2 million, while fourth-quarter revenue surged 118% year-over-year to reach $1.7 million
• Full-year operating losses expanded to $32.4 million, yet GAAP net income reached $10 million driven by warrant fair value adjustments
• November 2025 brought three strategic acquisitions — GuideTech, MKR Fabricators, and Warnke — expanding into avionics, fabrication, and precision machining
• Backlog expanded to approximately $18 million by mid-February 2026, supporting management’s 2026 revenue forecast of $24–$27 million
• First commercial customer signed for Palladyne IQ 2.0, plus new missile propulsion subsystem agreement secured with defense prime contractor

Palladyne AI experienced a challenging revenue year in 2025, yet the underlying narrative centers on strategic groundwork being laid for future expansion.

Annual revenue totaled $5.246 million, representing a 33% decline compared to 2024. The reduction stemmed from discontinued legacy hardware sales that were non-recurring and delays in services milestone recognition. While the full-year number appears concerning, the fourth-quarter performance paints a contrasting picture — Q4 revenue skyrocketed 118% year-over-year to $1.7 million.

Palladyne AI Corp., PDYN

Operating losses grew to $32.4 million compared to $26.9 million in the prior year. Research and development expenditures increased 24% to $12.9 million as the organization accelerated software validation and product innovation initiatives.

Net income registered at $10 million annually, reversing from a net loss of $72.6 million in 2024. This turnaround was primarily attributable to warrant fair value fluctuations rather than operational performance.

Basic earnings per share reached $0.26, while diluted EPS came in at $0.24.

Strategic Acquisition Strategy

November 2025 represented a transformative period for Palladyne. The company completed three strategic acquisitions — GuideTech, MKR Fabricators, and Warnke Precision Machining. These transactions integrated avionics design, fabrication services, and precision machining operations into the company’s portfolio.

These newly acquired manufacturing divisions contributed $0.6 million in revenue during their initial operating period. While modest initially, this figure demonstrates the company’s evolution beyond pure software development.

The organization also established Palladyne Defense during 2025, representing a deliberate expansion into defense contracting that extends considerably beyond its core autonomy software offerings.

Progress in Software, UAV Systems, and Aerospace

Palladyne IQ 2.0 achieved commercial launch in 2025, with the company securing its first revenue-generating customer for the solution. The organization also successfully demonstrated collaborative autonomous swarm coordination between its Gremlin-X UAV and Red Cat systems — representing a significant technical achievement for its SwarmOS platform.

A missile propulsion subsystem agreement was finalized with an additional defense prime contractor, broadening the company’s program portfolio.

In the aerospace sector, Palladyne deepened its collaboration with the Air Force Research Laboratory and Portal Space Systems. The company secured an additional patent while submitting several applications focused on swarming technologies and decentralized autonomy frameworks.

The organization appointed a new President of Commercial and Industrial to spearhead expansion in civilian market segments.

Backlog measured $13.5 million at 2025 year-end. By mid-February 2026, it had climbed to approximately $18 million — predominantly with secured funding.

Management confirmed its 2026 revenue projection of $24 million to $27 million. The latest analyst coverage on PDYN assigns a Buy rating with an $11.00 price target.

Fresh institutional inflows into Bitcoin are driving a crypto market rebound, while on-chain data shows whales increasingly moving capital into utility protocols like Mutuum Finance.

The digital asset market is experiencing a notable upward trend. This recovery follows a weekend of high volatility where geopolitical tensions briefly pushed prices lower. The current rally is largely driven by a significant return of institutional confidence, particularly through U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. Market data shows that large investors are not only stabilizing the “king of crypto” but are also beginning to shift their focus toward emerging utility protocols that offer functional financial tools.

Bitcoin 

The primary reason for today’s market surge is the aggressive buying behavior from institutional investors. On Monday, March 2, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $458 million in net inflows. This massive injection of capital effectively absorbed the “weekend shock” that had briefly sent Bitcoin tumbling toward the $63,000 level. By Tuesday morning, Bitcoin had reclaimed the $68,000 mark, signaling a swift rejection of the lower price range.

BlackRock’s IBIT fund remains the dominant force in this recovery, accounting for roughly half of the recent inflows. Over the last three trading sessions alone, U.S. spot ETFs added nearly $1.1 billion in total. This level of buying suggests that institutional desks are treating the recent war-driven volatility as a “dip-buying” opportunity. 

In addition to direct ETF buying, the options market shows a measured response to recent headlines. While short-term volatility briefly spiked, it retraced quickly. This indicates that traders are hedging for short-term risks rather than preparing for a long-term bear market. With Bitcoin holding steady near $68,000, the “leverage flush” that occurred in February appears to be over, leaving the market in a much healthier position for growth throughout March.

Utility protocols reveal on-chain whale inflows

While Bitcoin provides the market’s foundation, on-chain data shows that “whales” are increasingly moving capital into utility protocols. These are platforms that provide financial services—like lending, borrowing, and yield generation. As the top-tier market recovers, these utility projects often see the highest growth because they offer yield generated from protocol fees.

One project in this space is Mutuum Finance (MUTM). Mutuum Finance is a decentralized lending protocol that has raised over $20.7 million from a global base of 19,000 investors. Currently, the MUTM token is priced at $0.04. The steady growth of its investor base suggests that whales are looking for projects with high technical transparency and a clear path to delivery.

The power of a detailed roadmap

Utility protocols historically attract large-scale capital by providing a well-explained and detailed roadmap. Professional investors prefer projects that deliver their technology piece by piece. When a team consistently meets its development goals, it builds trust that makes it more attractive during market recoveries. By showing exactly how the technology will scale, these protocols reduce the perceived risk for large-holders.

The Mutuum Finance roadmap is divided into clear phases aimed at building a full-suite decentralized bank. The project is currently in Roadmap Phase 3, but the overall roadmap focuses on:

One-click borrow presets: Simplified risk profiles (Safe, Balanced, Aggressive) to make DeFi accessible to non-technical users. This feature is already integrated into the V1 protocol on the Sepolia testnet, allowing the community to test how these presets adjust the Stability Factor.

Buy-and-redistribute mechanism: Using protocol fees to buy MUTM tokens and reward those who stake in the “Safety Module.” This mechanism is specifically designed to create consistent MUTM buy pressure in the long run, linking the protocol’s growth and transaction volume to the market demand for its native token.

Native over-collateralized stablecoin: The team is planning a native over-collateralized stablecoin to provide a stable medium of exchange within the ecosystem, backed by the interest-bearing assets. This digital asset is designed to maintain its peg through redundant value backing, allowing users to mint liquidity against their holdings without selling their underlying positions.

Layer-2 expansion: To reduce costs, the protocol will expand to L2 networks, ensuring fast and cheap transactions for all users as the platform scales. This migration will significantly lower the gas fees associated with frequent interactions like interest compounding or adjusting collateral positions.

What Mutuum Finance has already delivered

Mutuum Finance has already delivered its functional V1 protocol on the Sepolia testnet. This allows its 19,000 investors to test lending & borrowing mechanisms and core features such as mtTokens (yield-bearing receipts) and automated liquidation bots in a live risk-free environment. 

The project has also secured a manual security audit from Halborn and a high safety score from CertiK. By providing a working testing environment before the full mainnet launch, Mutuum is proving that it can meet its technical milestones, which is exactly the kind of delivery that attracts long-term whale interest.

The crypto market’s upward move today is a classic example of institutional “dip-buying” meeting technical delivery. With $458 million flowing into ETFs and Bitcoin stabilizing at $68,000, the path is clear for utility protocols to take center stage. Mutuum Finance, which combines a $20.7 million funding base with a functional V1 protocol, is benefiting from this shift in whale focus. 

Global trading giant Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has begun a strategic partnership with cryptocurrency trading firm OKX to launch new products.

The deal will see the New York Stock Exchange owner license OKX’s spot crypto prices for crypto futures products, and OKX offer ICE futures and tokenized equities, the companies said on Thursday.

ICE also made a strategic investment in OKX, reflecting a valuation of $25 billion, according to a press release. The terms of the investment were not disclosed.

Alongside the investment, ICE will have a board seat on OKX’s board of directors and establish a broad collaboration to leverage OKX’s blockchain infrastructure alongside ICE’s market technology, said the release.

The joint venture will also aim to advance clearing and risk management solutions, multi-chain custody and wallet architecture, the companies said.

“Our strategic relationship with OKX will expand global retail access to ICE’s pre-eminent regulated markets and accelerate our plans to offer on-chain infrastructure and tokenized assets to U.S. investors,” said Jeffrey C. Sprecher, ICE chair and CEO.

The relationship brings together the operators of two high-performance matching engines and transparent order books, said Star Xu, founder and CEO of OKX, “to help build a more reliable market structure that bridges digital assets and equities, strengthens cross-market price formation, and meets institutional standards for risk and compliance.”

OKX global managing director, Haider Rafique – who played an instrumental part in securing the deal with ICE – said via email: “This relationship is truly unique. We couldn’t be more excited about the new opportunities and products we’ll be able to unlock by collaborating with such a respected and focused partner.”

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and former Facebook executive, recently argued that bitcoin has a “structural failing” that could limit its long term adoption by governments and central banks.

Speaking on People by WTF podcast during the World Government Summit, Palihapitiya said that for a digital asset to become widely accepted at the sovereign level it must possess characteristics that make it suitable for central bank reserves.

According to Palihapitiya, bitcoin falls short on two important dimensions, privacy and fungibility. Fungibility refers to the idea that each unit of an asset is interchangeable and indistinguishable from another. With physical cash or gold, one unit is effectively identical to any other unit.

Bitcoin, however, operates on a transparent blockchain where transaction histories are permanently recorded. Because coins can be traced back through prior transactions, some units can become associated with illicit activity, meaning certain coins may be treated differently than others.

Palihapitiya argues that this traceability weakens bitcoin’s fungibility and reduces its suitability as a reserve asset for central banks.

So far, only one central bank has publicly disclosed purchasing bitcoin, the Czech National Bank.

By contrast, he says gold satisfies both privacy and fungibility requirements for sovereign institutions, which is why central banks continue to hold large gold reserves.

For that reason, Palihapitiya suggested bitcoin may struggle to achieve another tenfold increase in market capitalization driven by central bank demand. Instead, he hinted that other crypto projects or smaller tokens may eventually address these limitations.

Palihapitiya remains optimistic about innovation in digital finance, particularly stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the US dollar or commodities.

He pointed to the potential for gold backed stablecoins as an example of financial innovation that could reduce friction in payments and settlement.

Meanwhile, Jason Calacanis, another venture investor and co host of the All In podcast, discussed bitcoin related corporate strategies with crypto entrepreneur Erik Voorhees on the This Week in Startups podcast. Calacanis asked Voorhees about Strategy (MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, the public company known for holding the largest corporate treasury of bitcoin.

Voorhees, a longtime Bitcoin advocate and founder of crypto exchange ShapeShift, said the strategy of accumulating as much bitcoin as possible is coherent if the company strongly believes in bitcoin’s long term value. Calacanis was more skeptical. He said that when financial structures become difficult to explain or rely on new metrics, such as “community EBITDA”, it raises red flags for him as an investor.

This comes as hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio recently remarked that “there is only one gold.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$72,786.79 is rallying alongside the U.S. dollar, a pattern that has surfaced several times since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election.

The cryptocurrency has gained over 10% since the outbreak of war in the Middle East over the weekend. Prices nearly tested the $74,000 mark at one point yesterday and are up over 2% in the past 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 Index and major tokens including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) rose 2% or more.

For bulls, the rally is notable not just for its magnitude but for the backdrop: It’s unfolding amid risk aversion in global equities and alongside a strengthening dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) has gained over 1% this week and hit a high of 99.68 on Wednesday, a level last seen in November.

That combination may puzzle many market watchers. A stronger greenback typically weighs on dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin, and historically the two have tended to move in opposite directions.

Yet that inverse correlation has repeatedly been challenged since Trump returned to the White House promising pro-crypto policies. Both BTC and the DXY rose in the lead-up to and aftermath of the election, both fell in March–April 2025. Now both are rallying again.

In the meantime, the demand for BTC from the U.S. appears to be strengthening, a constructive signal for the market. The Coinbase Premium index — which measures the spread between prices on the Nasdaq-listed exchange and offshore giant Binance — rose to 0.0227% today, the highest since December, according to data source Coinglass. A premium on Coinbase is typically a sign of stronger demand from U.S. investors.

The focus now is whether the cryptocurrency can penetrate the historical make-or-break zone around $74,000. A decisive breakout would likely bolster investor confidence and draw additional buyers into the market.

Some traders are also watching the U.S. macroeconomy.

“The US Employment Situation report for February is scheduled for March 6 followed by CPI on March 11, and the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian exchange Giottus.com said in an email. “All these are potential volatility catalysts for global risk assets, including crypto.”

Other macro observers remain cautious, noting that the current calm tied to the U.S. promise to escort and insure oil tankers may prove fragile.

“All it takes is one Iranian rocket for this fragile equilibrium to pitch into severe discontinuity. The threat of one Iranian rocket hitting paydirt remains real and this isn’t something that can be remedied any time soon,” economist Robin Brooks noted in a blog post. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending Feb. 28 (Prev. 212K)
  • March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm productivity QoQ prel for Q4 (Prev. 4.9%)
  • March 5, 4:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed balance sheet update for period ending March 4
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 5: Rumble (RUM), post-market, -$0.10

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Uniswap DAO is voting across two linked proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight L2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 5.
  • Gnosis DAO is voting to provide a grant to fund the continued support, infrastructure, and maintenance of the Revoke.cash security platform. Voting ends March 5.
• Unlocks
  • March 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.24% of its circulating supply worth $18.35 million.
• Token Launches
  • March 5: WhiteBit Token (WBT) lists on Kraken.
  • March 5: Limitless (LMTS) to be listed on Coinbase.
  • March 5: Opinion (OPN) to be listed on Binance, BitMart, BingX, MEXC and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.13% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $72,849.18 (24hrs: +2.42%)
• ETH is down 1.08% at $2,135.84 (24hrs: +3.81%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.25% at 2,072.03 (24hrs: +2.75%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 2.91%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8744% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.12% at 98.99
• Gold futures are up 1.06% at $5,174.30
• Silver futures are up 2.28% at $84.51
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.90% at 55,278.06
• Hang Seng closed up 0.28% at 25,321.34
• FTSE 100 is up 0.30% at 10,598.92
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,878.37
• DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.49% at 48,739.41
• S&P 500 closed up 0.78% at 6,869.50
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.29% at 22,807.48
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 33,942.90
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.26% at 3,619.17
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3 bps at 4.08%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,870.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,113.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.18% at 48,710.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.78% (0.9%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02938 (0.38%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 999 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.09
• Total fees: 3.03 BTC / $215,909
• CME Futures Open Interest: 111,485 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.1 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.88%

Technical Analysis

• The chart from Coinglass shows daily open interest in zcash (ZEC) futures.
• Open interest refers to the number of active futures contracts at any given time.
• The tally has increased to nearly 1.50 million ZEC, rising past a downtrend line.
• The breakout indicates renewed interest in ZEC futures and higher volatility ahead.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $208.93 (+14.57%), +0.10% at $209.14 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.34 (+17.70%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.29 (+7.27%), –0.22% at $9.27
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.53 (+8.11%), +0.24% at $16.57
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.84 (+3.53%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.66 (+7.79%), –0.75% at $10.58
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $12.16 (+12.28%), unchanged in pre-market
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.20 (+8.76%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.27 (+5.66%), unchanged in pre-market
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.86 (+11.29%), –0.49% at $36.68

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $146.44 (+10.37%), –0.30% at $146.00
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $8.13 (+11.98%), –1.60% at $8.00
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.08 (+37.58%), +1.85% at $1.10
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.22 (+6.09%)
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.62 (+15.49%), +0.73% at $9.69

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $461.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $169.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.83 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 5.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

On 3 March, the EUR/USD pair fell below the January low (around 1.15777), establishing the lowest level of the year. As of today, 5 March, the chart shows signs of a continuation of bearish momentum.

On one hand, demand for the USD as a “safe-haven currency” remains elevated amid the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East.

On the other hand, the euro is under pressure because:
→ rising energy prices put the European Union at a disadvantage;
→ traders may be cautious ahead of today’s ECB news (Lagarde’s speech is scheduled for 20:00 GMT+3).

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

On 19 February, we:
→ noted that bears held a certain advantage during February;
→ highlighted lower highs and lower lows at points A-B-C;
→ suggested a potential bearish scenario.

Since then, the downward movement has developed into a sequence A-B-C-D-E-F. Analysing the key patterns on the EUR/USD chart now allows us to construct a descending channel.

In this context, yesterday’s bearish reversal (indicated by the arrow) is noteworthy, as it occurred:
→ in the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci zone, indicating a weak recovery;
→ below the channel median, which acted as resistance.

Considering the above, it is reasonable to state that bears remain in control. Forex traders should not rule out further declines in EUR/USD towards a new yearly low (and a test of the lower boundary of the channel).

However, the long lower shadow at point F suggests aggressive demand around the psychological level of 1.15000, and market sensitivity to Middle East news could rapidly change sentiment.

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The crypto market was little changed on Thursday, with bitcoin BTC$72,578.05 and ether (ETH) posting gains of less than 1% as investors consolidated following Wednesday’s breakout.

While bitcoin crucially held above the $70,000 level that had rebuffed ealier rallies, it has failed to deliver an upside shift to $80,000 that some analysts predicted.

Global equities responded well to reports that Iran had secretly reached out to the U.S. in hopes of making an agreement to end the war in return for limiting its missile production.

The Dollar Index (DXY) fell as a result, but remains up by 3.5% since late January as traders attempt to rationalize potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would increase inflation, forcing the Fed’s hand to raise rates to keep deposits high.

Bitcoin typically rallies when the dollar weakens and falls when the currency is bullish.

Derivatives positioning

• Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) picked up, with the tally increasing to 680K BTC, the most in almost two weeks. This pattern confirms the spot price gains.
• Ether’s OI increased to 13.41 million ether, the highest since Jan. 31. Activity in XRP futures remains subdued, with OI stuck at recent lows below 1.70 billion XRP. The same can be said for Solana’s SOL.
• OI in futures tied to gold tokens Tether gold (XAUT) and PAXG$5,172.09 continues to drop as cryptocurrencies rise. Investors could be rotating money into majors as the gold price rally stalls.
• Privacy-focused ZEC’s futures activity is also picking up, with total OI ending a two-month downtrend.
• Annualized perpetual funding rates for bitcoin and ether remain mildly positive, pointing to a bullish bias. Rates, however, remain slightly negative for XRP and SOL.
• Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indexes remain steady in recent ranges, indicating market stability. Wall Street’s volatility index, VIX, has pulled back to 21% from Monday’s high of 28%.
• On Deribit, put skews in bitcoin and ether options have weakened, but persist alongside increased activity in higher strike calls, or bullish bets.
• Block flows in options featured demand for call calendar diagonal spreads on bitcoin and ether.

Token talk

• Layer-1 token MANTRA completed a token migration and rebrand, replacing the legacy OM token with the MANTRA ticker and implementing a 1:4 redenomination, leading to a 25% rise in token price over the past 24 hours.
• The bullish privacy token narrative at the turn of the year fell flat on its face in February as ZEC, DASH and XMR entered a deep correction, but monero (XMR) appears to now be bucking that trend, rising by 5.2% since midnight UTC and notching a 9.8% gain over the past week.
• Crypto majors dominated market gains over the past 24 hours, with the CoinDesk 5 (CF5) and CoinDesk 10 (CD10) indexes each rising around 3.1%. The DeFi Select Index and Computing Select Index were up by just 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, over the same period.
• If bitcoin can continue to move towards $80,000 and consolidate, profits may then be rolled into more speculative altcoin bets, but for now the market remains cautious.