Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin may have strong odds of rising over the next 10 months.

Timothy Peterson’s model points to $122K Bitcoin

In a post on X, he noted that 50% of the past 24 months have closed positively for Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data going back to 2011, that reading implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.

Peterson estimates the average forward return at exp(60%) − 1, or about 82%. That would translate to a BTC price near $122,000 over the next 10 months, based on current levels.

He described the indicator as an informal cycle tool. It measures frequency, not magnitude. In other words, it counts how many months were positive, not how large the gains were.

Bitcoin could move sideways for months and the metric could still fall. Even so, Peterson says it has helped identify inflection points in past cycles.

A chart shared with the post shows that stronger readings in positive-month frequency have historically aligned with higher forward returns.

Nevertheless, the posts drew divided reactions from users on X.

One user called it a “rare confluence of historical data,” arguing the setup points to a major recovery by the end of 2026. The 82% expected return, they said, remains a guiding signal for long-term investors.

Others were more cautious. One user wrote “Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn about historical averages.”

Why Most New Players Quit Tarkov (And How You Can Avoid It)

Let’s be honest—Escape from Tarkov doesn’t care about your feelings. This isn’t one of those games that holds your hand through tutorials or gives you participation trophies.

The learning curve isn’t just steep. It’s practically vertical. But here’s what makes it different from other punishing games: once you understand the core mechanics, everything clicks.

That moment when you extract with your first successful raid? Worth every frustrating death that came before it. The problem is most players never reach that point.

They get discouraged after their tenth death to someone they never even saw. They lose their best gear to a Scav boss and uninstall.

They wander aimlessly trying to find extraction points. This guide exists to prevent that from happening to you.

Accept the Reality: Everyone Else Is Already Ahead

Step one in surviving Tarkov? Accept pain. By the time you’re reading this in 2026, everyone else has already finished the early wipe rush.

They’ve got their hideouts upgraded, their flea market access unlocked, and enough ammo stockpiled to supply a small army.

You’re behind. That’s just reality. But here’s the thing—being behind doesn’t mean you can’t catch up. It means you need to be smarter about how you approach the game. Veterans rely on gear and map knowledge.

You’ll rely on strategy and patience until you build those same advantages.

Start in Offline Mode (Seriously)

Before you risk your precious starting gear in a live raid, spend time in offline mode. This isn’t cowardice. This is intelligence. Offline mode lets you explore maps without the risk of losing everything.

Learn where the extractions are located. Figure out which buildings have the best loot spawns. Get comfortable with the movement mechanics and how your stamina drains when you’re carrying heavy loads. Most importantly, practice against AI Scavs.

Their behavior mimics player Scavs closely enough that you’ll develop muscle memory for engagements without risking real gear.

The players who skip this step are the ones who spend their first twenty raids getting lost and dying to easily avoidable mistakes.

Your First Real Runs Should Be Scav Runs

Scav runs are your secret weapon for learning Tarkov without going broke. Every Scav run gives you completely random gear—sometimes you’ll spawn with decent armor and a rifle, other times you’ll get a pistol and dreams.

Either way, it’s free gear you didn’t have to risk. Use these runs to accomplish three things: Learn the map layouts and extraction points.

Move slowly and observe how other players (both PMCs and Scavs) behave. Collect anything valuable you find and extract safely—this becomes your PMC fund.

The cooldown timer between Scav runs depends on your Scav karma, but even with neutral karma, you can run a Scav every fifteen to twenty minutes.

That’s enough time to plan your next PMC raid while building up a stash of supplies.

The Two Factors That Determine Every Fight

Success in Tarkov comes down to armor and ammo. That’s it. You can have the best aim in the world, but if you’re shooting rounds that can’t penetrate your opponent’s armor, you’re just making noise.

Similarly, the thickest armor won’t save you from high-penetration rounds or a well-placed headshot. Tarkov uses realistic ballistics.

Every bullet has specific penetration values. Some rounds will bounce off class 4 armor like pebbles. Others will slice through class 5 armor like it’s not even there.

For beginners, focus on ammo that can penetrate class 4 armor at minimum. Yes, it costs more. But dying with a full magazine of useless ammo is infinitely more expensive.

And remember—headshots bypass armor entirely. One well-placed shot beats a dozen body shots with bad ammo.

Sound Is Your Most Powerful Weapon

If you’re not wearing a headset in Tarkov, you’re playing at a massive disadvantage. In-game headsets amplify footsteps, door opening sounds, and weapon handling noises.

The difference between playing with and without one is night and day. Move deliberately. Sprint only when necessary.

Every step you take is information you’re broadcasting to everyone nearby. Walking reduces noise significantly. Crouching reduces it even more.

Learn to distinguish between different sounds. PMC footsteps sound different from Scav footsteps. The sound of someone healing tells you they’re vulnerable.

Glass breaking means someone just moved through a window. The best Tarkov players don’t win because they see their enemies first.

They win because they hear them coming and prepare accordingly.

Quest Lines Are Your Roadmap (Use the Wiki)

Quests feel overwhelming at first because the game barely explains them. The solution? Pull up the Tarkov Wiki and follow it religiously.

Quests unlock crucial game features—trader levels, flea market access, hideout upgrades. They also force you to learn maps organically rather than wandering aimlessly. Take “Shooting Cans” on Ground Zero as an example.

The quest description is vague, but the wiki tells you exactly where to go and what to do. Following along removes the guesswork and lets you focus on survival instead of detective work. Don’t try to memorize everything.

Keep the wiki open in a second monitor or on your phone. Every veteran player does this—there’s no shame in it.

Your Hideout Progression Matters More Than You Think

The hideout isn’t just cosmetic. It’s essential for long-term progression. Your first priorities should be the generator and security station.

The generator requires a spark plug (around 100,000 rubles) plus construction materials. Security needs measuring tape (about 20,000 rubles for level 1).

These upgrades unlock passive benefits—faster healing between raids, access to better crafting recipes, increased stash size.

Every hour you delay building your hideout is an hour you’re falling behind players who started earlier. Certain hideout upgrades require items that aren’t available on the flea market.

You’ll need to find them in-raid, which means knowing which maps have the best spawn rates. Customs and Interchange are reliable for early hideout materials.

The Maps That Actually Matter for Making Money

Not all maps are created equal when it comes to profit potential. Lighthouse and Streets of Tarkov have the densest tech spawns and rarest loot.

If you can survive these maps, you’ll build wealth faster than grinding anywhere else. The tradeoff? These maps also attract the most geared players and have brutal AI. Rogues on Lighthouse have aimbot-level accuracy.

Streets has complex layouts that take dozens of raids to learn properly. For beginners, Customs remains the best starting map.

It’s required for early quests, has moderate loot density, and teaches fundamental Tarkov skills. Once you’re comfortable on Customs, branch out to Interchange for tech runs or Woods for safer, slower-paced raids.

Managing Hydration and Energy Saves Lives

Tarkov’s survival mechanics extend beyond health points. Let your hydration or energy drop too low, and your vision starts blurring.

Keep ignoring it, and you’ll start taking damage over time. There’s nothing more embarrassing than dying to dehydration with a backpack full of loot.

Pack food and water in your secure container. A bottle of water and a snack weigh almost nothing but prevent entirely avoidable deaths. Your secure container keeps these items safe even if you die.

This seems obvious until you’re deep into a forty-minute raid and suddenly realize you can’t see clearly because you forgot to pack water.

The Legitimate Advantages That Separate Winners from Losers

Some players dominate Tarkov through gear and time investment. Others find alternative ways to gain edges. Map knowledge beats gear quality nine times out of ten.

Knowing where enemies spawn, which routes they’ll take, and where to position yourself creates massive advantages.

Study spawn points. Learn high-traffic areas. Understand timing—when players hit specific locations based on raid timers.

Network optimization matters too. If your connection lags during crucial firefights, you’re already dead. Tools exist that reduce latency and packet loss, though choosing the right ones requires research beyond basic game settings.

The community also offers resources—from detailed ballistics charts to real-time price tracking for the flea market. Players who leverage these tools progress faster than those who don’t. For those seeking comprehensive enhancement options, EFT cheats discussions across various communities highlight how some players approach gaining competitive edges, though your mileage will vary significantly based on your priorities and risk tolerance.

Learning from Death (The Skill Nobody Talks About)

Every death in Tarkov teaches a lesson if you’re willing to learn it. Died from a headshot while sprinting across an open field? Lesson learned—never cross open areas at full sprint.

Got ambushed leaving a high-value loot area? Lesson learned—check corners when leaving hotspots.

The difference between players who improve and players who quit is simple: one group analyzes what went wrong, the other group blames the game. Keep a mental note of your deaths.

What could you have done differently? Where did you get careless? Which sounds did you ignore? This metacognitive approach transforms frustrating deaths into educational experiences.

After a hundred raids, you’ll have an instinct for danger that can’t be taught—only earned through repeated mistakes.

Join the Community and Actually Use It

Tarkov has one of the most active gaming communities online. Reddit, Discord servers, forums—they’re all filled with players eager to help newcomers.

Don’t be afraid to ask questions. The veteran players remember being confused beginners themselves. Team up with other players when possible.

Tarkov is exponentially less punishing when you have teammates covering angles and sharing resources. Solo play is viable once you’re experienced, but learning alone is needlessly masochistic.

The community also provides early warnings about patches, wipes, and meta changes. Being connected means you’re never caught off guard when major updates drop.

The Long Game

Tarkov rewards persistence above everything else. Your first fifty raids will be brutal. Your next fifty will be slightly less brutal.

Somewhere around raid two hundred, you’ll realize you’re actually getting good at this. The players who succeed in Tarkov aren’t necessarily the ones with the best aim or the fastest reflexes.

They’re the ones who refuse to quit after bad raids. They analyze, adapt, and keep pushing forward.

Every veteran player went through exactly what you’re experiencing now. The difference is they kept playing anyway.

So accept the pain. Learn from deaths. Build your skills one raid at a time. The rewards—both in-game and in pure satisfaction—are worth the struggle. Now get out there and survive.

I entered the crypto market at a time when Bitcoin traded around $6,000 — yes, that long ago. Back then, it existed in a no man’s land between experimentation and finance, and the market reacted to headlines or influential voices in a knee-jerk manner.

That wasn’t just my impression. Years later, a study analyzing Bitcoin and Dogecoin during the 2020–2021 cycle found statistically significant increases in price and trading volume on days when Musk posted about cryptocurrencies. The effect was especially pronounced for Dogecoin, whose volatility response was more than ten times stronger than that of Bitcoin.

Fast forward to today, and something feels different. Big news still happens. Prices still rise and fall. But the way the market responds has clearly changed. Below, I try to break down what’s actually different.

Headlines Used to Be the Market

Earlier crypto cycles were defined by immediacy. Liquidity was thinner, derivatives were far less dominant in price discovery, and positioning was far more visible in spot markets. As a result, price action clustered tightly around the moment news broke.

To assess whether Bitcoin’s reactions to news were immediate or gradual, I compared price behavior around major headlines across different market cycles. I selected two high-impact events from earlier cycles and two events of comparable significance from the post-2024 halving period. For each case, I tracked price movements before and after the news and normalized the data to focus on reaction patterns rather than absolute price levels.

In February 2021, Tesla disclosed that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, which was trading around $38,000. Within hours of the announcement, the price surged more than 15% in a single session to the level above $44,000. There was little ambiguity in how the market interpreted the news. The headline itself was the catalyst.

The same dynamic worked in reverse just a few months later. In May 2021, as China intensified its crackdown on Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin fell from roughly $40,000 to near $30,000 in a matter of days. Headlines triggered panic selling, forced liquidations, and cascading declines that felt sudden and overwhelming. Price didn’t drift lower — it collapsed.

In those markets, volatility wasn’t an exception. It was the baseline.

How the Current Cycle Handles Big News

Can we say Bitcoin no longer reacts to news? Not exactly. But the way it reacts has clearly changed.

Take the regulatory shift surrounding Gary Gensler’s departure as Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — widely viewed as a meaningful inflection point for the crypto industry.

In November 2024, when news of his impending exit became public, Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$80,000s. Over the following weeks, price pushed higher to the $100,000 level. But the move unfolded gradually, with much of the appreciation taking place before the leadership change became official in January 2025.

There was neither a single breakout candle, nor sudden repricing at the moment of confirmation. Instead, the market embraced the development as part of a broader, already-expected regulatory shift.

A similar pattern emerged during the February 2025 macro-driven sell-off. As U.S. tariff announcements and rising global risk pushed markets into a risk-off mode, Bitcoin slipped from just above $100,000 to the mid-$90,000s. The decline was real, but measured and spread over several sessions rather than concentrated in a single shock. Unlike the China ban in 2021, there was no panic cascade and no sense of structural failure.Price fell, but it did so calmly.

Volatility Spread Out Over Time

The contrast is telling. In 2021, major headlines produced immediate double-digit moves jostled around the news itself. In the current cycle, developments of similar importance have resulted in multi-day trends, with price often moving ahead of official announcements.

Bitcoin didn’t stop rising and falling. The charts point to a different shape of volatility — with smoother price moves and fewer headline-driven extremes. Market reactions no longer reflect that wide-eyed, hair-scratching surprise, but are increasingly driven by positioning, liquidity, and expectations.

In short, Bitcoin didn’t stop reacting — it stopped overreacting.

Where the Reaction Went

Much of the current market’s adjustment happens away from the visible spot price. Large players now use futures and options to build and hedge exposure. Capital flows in and out via spot Bitcoin ETFs, while big trades move through OTC desks rather than hitting the spot market right away. Together, these channels mute the black-and-white reactions that once defined earlier crypto cycles.

Large players and whales are still there, but their influence no longer reveals itself through obvious spot-market shocks. They can reposition quietly, change exposure without immediately forcing price to respond.

It feels like the market has finally buried its emotional, headline-driven reactions in the past and matured toward a quieter process of repricing risk.

This shift is unfolding against a very different macro backdrop: tighter global liquidity, fewer expectations of automatic bailouts, and monetary policy focused on restraint rather than stimulus. Bitcoin, increasingly treated as a macro asset and accessed through regulated channels like ETFs, now responds more to liquidity conditions and capital flows than to isolated news events.

If you’re still expecting every major headline to trigger an instant breakout or crash, the market can feel broken. Step back, though, and a different picture emerges — one where the noise hasn’t vanished, but it no longer leads the story. What remains is a market learning to price risk with patience.

Ethereum’s Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is facing a pivotal moment as it tests the $1,500 psychological level, with technical patterns suggesting a potential continuation to the downside. A bear pennant breakdown has emerged, supported by rising volume and a shift in risk sentiment that has weighed on the broader crypto market. Monday’s session saw ETH slide sharply, dipping to around $1,850 amid nerves around tariffs and macro headwinds. If the breakdown persists, traders expect the price to retrace toward $1,475 by late February or early March, aligning with the measured move implied by the pattern. Bulls will need to reclaim key support to alter the trajectory.

Key takeaways

• Ethereum is in the breakdown phase of a bear pennant, signaling potential further weakness.
• The chart-based downside target sits near $1,475, likely by late February or early March if current dynamics hold.
• The move was accompanied by rising volumes, indicating conviction behind the breakout from the pennant’s lower boundary.
• Vitalik Buterin’s ongoing ETH sales plans add a supply-side headwind, with roughly 9,000 ETH sold since early February and a 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave noted on-chain.
• February’s ETH price decline of about 18.5% aligns with the distribution activity cited in on-chain trackers.
• Historically, founder-led transfers have coincided with pronounced price moves, underscoring the potential impact of large.

Tickers mentioned: $ETH

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The breakdown美元 appears to be extending ETH’s downside trajectory and testing key support at $1,500.

Market context: The current wave sits within a broader crypto risk-off environment, where de-risking and macro headwinds shape near-term price action and liquidity across altcoins.

Market context: The move sits within a broader de-risking mood across crypto markets, where macro volatility and on-chain activity around founder distributions shape near-term price dynamics.

Why it matters

The technical setup around ETH points to a larger narrative about how chart patterns interact with market psychology and on-chain flows. A breach of the pennant’s lower boundary, when accompanied by higher volume, often signals that selling pressure is prevailing and could lead to a measured move down to the pennant’s projected target. If ETH cannot defend the $1,500 zone, traders may push the road map toward $1,475, a level that marks a critical psychological barrier as well as a liquidity threshold for a number of market participants.

Beyond chart mechanics, the ongoing cadence of founder-led distributions adds another layer of complexity. Vitalik Buterin’s reported plan to liquidate significant ETH holdings to fund ecosystem work has become a recurring talking point for traders, especially when paired with on-chain data showing sizable sales. While these transfers do not guarantee price outcomes, they contribute to a sense of overhang that can amplify negative sentiment during drawdowns. Historical episodes—such as the May 2021 transfers of tens of thousands of ETH before previous downturns, and the November 2021 move to Kraken that preceded a period of price cooling—highlight how large, scheduled liquidations can sway market mood even when overall fundamentals remain intact.

The intersecting pressures—technical breakdowns, on-chain supply dynamics, and macro risk-off tendencies—mean the market will likely hinge on the next few price ticks. For ETH holders, the key question is whether buyers re-emerge to defend the $1,500 floor and force a reversal, or if sellers maintain zone control and push toward the lower pennant target. The presence of a nearby 20-day exponential moving average around $2,085 also gives bulls a potential benchmark to reclaim should a relief rally materialize, potentially invalidating the bearish scenario if crossed with momentum.

For additional context on chart patterns and the potential for sub-$2,000 ETH scenarios, readers can review related analysis that outlines classic patterns suggesting more downside risk for ETH in the near term.

The broader market backdrop remains intricate. A sustained risk-off environment can amplify the impact of on-chain activity like founder sales, while a shift in macro rhetoric or renewed appetite for risk could flip sentiment and alter the short-term trajectory for ETH and other major altcoins. As traders weigh these factors, the next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the price stabilizes above critical supports or tests lower targets outlined by the pennant framework.

What to watch next

• Observe ETH price action when approaching $1,500: does it hold as support or break lower?
• Monitor any further ETH distributions from Kanro and related wallets, and whether remaining holdings (~7,350 ETH) are scheduled for sale.
• Track on-chain activity from Arkham Intelligence and Lookonchain for changes in sell tempo and new large transfers.
• Watch the price reaction relative to the 20-day EMA near $2,085 as a potential bullish trigger if crossed with volume.
• Assess broader macro signals and ETF/derivative flows that could influence risk sentiment in the coming weeks.

Sources & verification

• Vitalik Buterin’s Jan. 30 statement about selling 16,384 ETH via Kanro to fund ecosystem work.
• Arkham Intelligence on-chain tracking of approximately 9,000 ETH sold since early February and a 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave.
• Lookonchain commentary noting accelerated ETH sales in February.
• Historical references to May 2021 and Nov. 2021 large ETH transfers and subsequent price movements.
• Related analysis: Ethereum price chart patterns indicating sub-$2K scenarios.

ETH bears eyes sub-$1,500 test as pennant breakdown deepens

Ethereum’s Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) remains in focus as the coin tests a critical support band near $1,500, with a bear pennant breakdown shaping the near-term risk-reward. A fresh wave of selling pressure emerged after the price slipped to around $1,850 amid tariff-related jitters and a broader de-risking environment. The breakdown has been underscored by rising trading volumes, suggesting that market participants are stepping in with conviction behind the move. The immediate downside target—derived from the pennant’s height—points toward roughly $1,475 by late February or early March, a level that also aligns with the psychological trap of the $1,500 mark.

For bulls, the key denominator is not just the price but the dynamics of support and momentum. Reclaiming the pennant’s lower boundary would be a first sign of stability, but a sustained rally above the 20-day exponential moving average, currently near $2,085, would be required to invalidate the bearish outlook. Until such a reversal pattern emerges, the market faces a test of the lower bound, with the pattern’s traditional objective offering a plausible path toward a deeper correction.

On-chain developments have amplified the narrative. Vitalik Buterin has signaled ongoing ETH liquidations to support long-term ecosystem initiatives, with 16,384 ETH slated for withdrawal via Kanro as part of a broader “mild austerity” posture by the Ethereum Foundation. Independent trackers have observed ongoing distributions—roughly 9,000 ETH sold since early February and a notable 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave—raising questions about the role of founder-level supply in the current price action. The market should not ignore these signals, especially given the historical context where large, founder-controlled transfers have coincided with meaningful price moves.

Beyond the mechanics of the price chart and on-chain activity, investors should consider the broader ecosystem implications. If ETH continues to see elevated selling from founder addresses, there could be a persistent overhang that slows upside attempts and makes any rebound more fragile. Conversely, any signs of demand returning—whether from improved macro sentiment, higher risk appetite, or supportive on-chain activity—could reawaken buyers and target the key resistance around $2,000 and beyond. The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether the bears maintain control or a stabilization forms that could reframe Ethereum’s path in the near term.

Related: Ethereum price: Classic chart pattern puts sub-$2K ETH in focus

Strategy founder Micahel Saylor has hinted that the firm may be set to execute its 100th Bitcoin purchase as the flagship crypto continues to sink.

Saylor shared a cryptic X post on Sunday with the caption “The Orange Century” alongside a screenshot from StrategyTracker, which lists all the previous purchases the company has executed since it began buying Bitcoin in August 2020.

Markets largely view such posts from Saylor as a signal that the company is preparing to announce another Bitcoin purchase, as has been the case on multiple occasions in the past.

To date, Strategy has acquired 717,131 BTC at an average price of $76,027 across 99 Bitcoin purchases, which means it is now gearing up for what would mark its 100th acquisition.

Strategy has continued buying Bitcoin over the past six years, even during periods of extreme volatility. The company views Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge and store of value, and Saylor remains characteristically undeterred, continuing to double down on his maximalist conviction despite the latest drawdowns.

Strategy has consistently acquired Bitcoin over the past 12 weeks.

Bitcoin price is down nearly 48% from its all time high of $126,080, but despite the challenging market conditions, Strategy has relied on a complex array of financial maneuvers, including convertible debt and equity offerings, to fund its ongoing Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Strategy shares, in the meantime, have tested investor conviction and are down over 61% over the past six months. However, it was up nearly 950% since its first purchase buy according to data from Google Finance.

The company’s aggressive Bitcoin treasury model has even sparked concerns that it may face refinancing pressure if Bitcoin price weakness persists. But Saylor has assured investors that the firm could withstand a drawdown to $8,000 per coin without jeopardizing its balance sheet, arguing that Strategy’s leverage remains manageable relative to the size of its Bitcoin holdings.

At press time, Strategy’s total holdings are valued at over $47 billion based on current prices, with paper losses of 13.62%.

The United Arab Emirates has established one of the most defined regulatory frameworks for crypto exchanges. Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority issues licenses, while Abu Dhabi’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority regulates platforms operating in the Abu Dhabi Global Market. The clarity has drawn international platforms seeking formal authorization rather than operating in regulatory gray zones.

Just last week, on February 12, 2026, perpetuals-focused trading platform Flipster joined the growing list, securing in-principle approval from VARA through its local entity, Flipster FZE. It’s the first big regulatory green light for the exchange in the UAE, paving the way for regulated spot trading to start with more products likely to follow once full licensing clears.

BeInCrypto spoke with Benjamin Grolimund, General Manager at Flipster FZE, to dig into the decision: why the UAE became Flipster’s debut regulated market, the internal efforts undertaken to strengthen compliance standards, and what this says about where the competitive landscape for exchanges is heading in 2026.

Building Within a Defined Framework

Securing in-principle approval signals Flipster’s commitment to building a long-term presence in the UAE, according to Grolimund. Indeed, the UAE’s regulatory clarity was central to the decision. 

Grolimund sees that rather than responding to crypto reactively, Dubai established a dedicated supervisory authority with defined expectations for operators. He told BeInCrypto:

“The UAE combines regulatory clarity with economic ambition. That clarity matters. Regulatory predictability is a competitive advantage, particularly for an exchange planning long-term expansion.”

Geography also factored into the equation. The UAE connects major financial centers across Asia and Europe, offering exchanges a regulated base from which to serve multiple markets. For a platform expanding beyond one region, that positioning carries operational advantages.

Grolimund added:

“There is also a long-term orientation to how digital infrastructure is being built in the Middle East. Digital assets are part of broader economic diversification efforts, not treated as a passing cycle. That environment supports sustainable growth rather than volatility-driven expansion.”

Institutionalizing Readiness

Progressing from in-principle approval toward full authorization required operational discipline beyond product expansion.

Preparing for supervised activity in the UAE meant formalizing governance structures, refining risk assessment methodologies, and clarifying reporting lines aligned with VARA’s expectations. Monitoring systems were enhanced, onboarding controls strengthened, and accountability mapped across product, engineering, legal, and compliance teams.

“Growth under supervision demands clarity of accountability,” Grolimund said.

In his view, operating in the UAE required embedding regulatory alignment into core processes rather than treating compliance as an external layer. Accountability structures were clarified, risk controls strengthened, and reporting frameworks aligned early in the process.

Flipster has also established a physical presence in Dubai, relocating talent from global offices and hiring locally. The license, he emphasized, is not being treated as a convenience structure.

“Some companies treat licensing as an expansion milestone. We see it as the starting point of building something durable.”

Performance Under Supervision

The in-principle approval allows Flipster FZE to move toward spot trading as its initial licensed activity in the UAE. As regulatory licensing becomes standard among global exchanges, the distinction increasingly lies in how platforms operate once supervision begins.

Flipster built its infrastructure for active traders, prioritizing deep liquidity and efficient execution across perpetual futures markets. Grolimund said entering a regulated jurisdiction does not change that foundation. It raises the standards around it.

“Entering a regulated market does not change our focus on performance,” he said. “It challenges us to maintain speed and product sharpness while operating with stronger governance.”

Rather than treating compliance as a separate layer, he described the objective as integrating governance into the operating core. Matching engines, liquidity systems, and risk controls must function within clearly defined escalation pathways and reporting structures.

“Speed without structure does not last,” Grolimund affirmed.

From Cycles to Structure

Looking at the larger picture, Grolimund said the UAE is expected to serve as a foundational regulated market within Flipster’s broader expansion strategy over the next several years. The immediate priority is progressing from in-principle approval to full authorization and sustaining operations under VARA’s oversight.

The move reflects a broader recalibration across the exchange sector. As structured regulatory regimes expand, licensing is becoming a baseline requirement rather than a differentiator. The distinction may lie in whether platforms can sustain liquidity and execution quality while operating under supervision.

“Our investment in the UAE reflects how we intend to approach every market we enter,” Grolimund said.

Machi Big Brother was also partially wrecked as ETH’s price dropped by $200.

It was another sharp drop for bitcoin earlier this morning when the asset plunged to its lowest level in over two weeks at under $64,500.

Given the extent and speed of the crash, the total value of wrecked positions skyrocketed within hours to almost $500 million. Within this timeframe, almost 140,000 traders were wrecked, according to data from CoinGlass. However, one case in particular raised a few eyebrows.

An unknown whale was wrecked for $61.51 million in the past day during BTC’s painful drop. The liquidation took place on HTX and involved the BTC/USDT trading pair.

Another whale that was hit during the dip was Machi Big Brother – the Taiwanese-American entrepreneur and former musician, whose real name is Jeffrey Huang.

Data from Lookonchain shows that he was partially liquidated on his ETH position. CryptoPotato reported a few days ago that his entire crypto portfolio had fallen below $1 million, posting a loss of around $28 million.

Although that amount has risen to over $28.8 million following the latest liquidation, he continues to build on his Ethereum longs, now holding 1,700 tokens, worth $3.2 million.

ETH’s price was rejected at $2,000 over the weekend and plunged to $1,850 for the first time since the February 6 crash, when it bottomed at $1,750.

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The market just crashed, and Machi(@machibigbrother) was partly liquidated again.

But he keeps adding to his $ETH long position.

He now holds 1,700 $ETH($3.21M), with a liquidation price of $1,818.74.

His total loss has passed $28.8M.https://t.co/P6lglcgpyo pic.twitter.com/t9cEDpOzQ1

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 23, 2026

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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is on track to test and potentially break the $1,500 support level in the coming days.

Key takeaways:

• Ethereum has entered the breakdown phase of its prevailing bearish continuation pattern.

• ETH price may decline below $1,500 by early March amid founder-led selling.

ETH bear pennant breakdown targets $1,475

On Monday, ETH’s price dropped by more than 5.60% to about $1,850 amid a broader de-risking sentiment led by nervousness surrounding tariffs.

In doing so, the biggest altcoin broke below the lower trendline of its prevailing bear pennant pattern, with rising volumes indicating traders’ conviction behind the breakdown move.

A bear pennant breakdown typically resolves when the price falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.

Applying the same principle to ETH’s charts would bring its downside target to $1,475, close to the psychological support level of $1,500, by the end of February or early March.

Related: Ethereum price: Classic chart pattern puts sub-$2K ETH in focus

The bulls must therefore reclaim the pennant’s lower trendline as support, followed by a continued rally above the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA, the green line) at $2,085, which may invalidate the bearish outlook.

Vitalik Buterin will likely sell more ETH soon

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s planned ETH sales have not helped the bulls regain their footing in February.

On Jan. 30, Buterin said he would withdraw and sell 16,384 ETH via his Kanro entity to fund ecosystem work, open-source software and other long-term initiatives during an Ethereum Foundation “mild austerity” phase.

Since early February, onchain tracker Arkham Intelligence has flagged about 9,000 ETH sold in batches, with the pace picking up again over the past 48 hours after a 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave.

Vitalik Buterin “is selling ETH faster again,” said onchain monitoring resource, Lookonchain, on Monday.

Ethereum’s price has dropped 18.55% so far in February, aligning with Buterin’s ETH distribution. The overhang could grow if he liquidates the remaining ~7,350 ETH.

History shows how founder-linked supply, including Ethereum Foundation treasury transfers, can amplify bearish sentiment among traders.

For instance, the May 2021 35,000 ETH transfers (about $125 million at that time) preceded a 50% ETH price drop within weeks.

Later, the foundation transferred another 20,000 ETH ($95 million) to Kraken on Nov. 11, 2021, a move that, in hindsight, coincided with Ether’s price peaking near $4,700 before the next leg lower.

Such conditions further increase ETH’s odds of hitting its pennant target below $1,500 in the coming days.