The recent strike by Israel and the US, along with Iran’s retaliatory actions, has pushed energy asset prices higher. Yesterday, we reported on a bullish gap in oil markets, and while US natural gas prices have not surged as sharply, they are also on the rise. Traders’ attention is focused on news from the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global liquefied gas shipments pass.

Today’s XNG/USD chart reflects the increase in natural gas prices – driven by concerns over potential disruptions to supply chains.

Technical Analysis of XNG/USD

The long-term descending channel, repeatedly referenced in previous analyses, remains relevant – its median acted as resistance on 6 February.

A notable event occurred on 9 February, when a bearish gap formed on the XNG/USD chart (around the 3.200 level). This area acted as resistance on 12 February.

From a bullish perspective:
→ The market finds support near the 2025 low, likely an economically justified support level close to production costs.
→ The reversal on 26 February resembles a Rounding Bottom pattern.

Currently, US natural gas prices are trading near 1.133, where local February highs formed. However, if escalation in the Middle East continues, XNG/USD may rise toward the noted resistance around 3.200.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The crypto market, U.S. equities and precious metals all tumbled on Tuesday as the dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.5% since midnight UTC to its highest level since Jan. 19.

The risk-off sentiment comes after escalation in the conflict in Iran, with Israel launching fresh strikes on Tehran and Beirut while the U.S. embassy in Riyadh was hit by two Iranian drones.

Gold hit a one-month high of $5,410 on Monday but fell back to $5,260 on Tuesday as investors opt for the dollar as a safe haven.

Bitcoin BTC$67,035.11 has been largely correlated with gold this week; rallying on Monday to $70,000 before reverting back to $66,500 – firmly in the middle of a range it has occupied since early February.

The altcoin market fared worse than bitcoin, with the likes of ADA, ZEC and DASH losing upwards of 4% since midnight UTC.

Derivatives positioning

• Market dynamics have transitioned into a consolidation phase, with BTC futures open Interest stabilizing at $15.3 billion as the post-leverage cleanup reaches equilibrium. Retail sentiment remains cautiously bullish with funding rates ranging from 0% to 10%, while institutional conviction has softened slightly, marked by the 3-month annualized basis dipping just below 3%. This suggests a firm market floor but a temporary plateau in upside momentum.
• The options market has shifted from “panic-hedging” to sustained bullishness, with 24 hour call volume surging to a 63/37 split. The 1-week 25-delta skew has cooled to 14% (down from 27%), signaling a sharp drop in the cost of downside protection. Crucially, the implied volatility (IV) term structure has moved into contango, as front-end premiums collapse below the stable 49%–50% seen in longer-dated tenors, indicating that immediate fear has been replaced by mid-term growth expectations.
• Coinglass data shows $392 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($163 million), ETH ($96 million) and Others ($20 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $69,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Token talk

• CoinDesk’s Memecoin (CDMEME) and DeFi Select (DFX) Indices are the best performing benchmarks over the past 24 hours, rising 0.95% and 0.71% respectively.
• AI token NEAR bounced back from oversold conditions with a 13.3% move to the upside on Tuesday, indicating that portions of the altcoin market remained coiled ready to spring to the upside.
• Broadly, however, the altcoin market remains in a consolidation phase as a part of a downtrend dating back to October. Over the past week the likes of PEPE, ATOM, SHIB and BCH have all lost double digits despite bitcoin remaining in the middle of its trading range.
• DeFi tokens JUP and MORPHO bucked the consolidation trend, rising by 23% and 20% respectively over the past week with continuation to the upside on Tuesday.

A token bearing the name of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi briefly surged to a multi-million-dollar valuation on the Solana network before tumbling after the premier publicly denied any involvement. The episode spotlights how political-name assets can spark swift, emotion-driven moves in crypto markets, even when official ties remain unproven. On Feb. 25, trackers flagged Sanae Token reaching a market capitalization of about $27.7 million, a figure that was soon undermined by the denial. As the day progressed, the asset’s apparent value receded, with the market cap hovering around $7 million as traders reassessed the token’s fundamentals and branding risks in a highly speculative environment.

Key takeaways

• The Sanae Token briefly attained a market capitalization of roughly $27.7 million on Feb. 25, according to data tracked by Gmgn, before retracing following the prime minister’s denial of any connection.
• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly stated on X that she had no knowledge of the token and that neither her office nor she had approved it, aiming to prevent public misunderstanding.
• The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly weighing a probe into the token’s issuance and the operators behind it, though no formal announcement has been made.
• The episode is part of a broader pattern of political-name tokens drawing attention in multiple jurisdictions, including examples in the United States and Argentina that have sparked volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
• Under Japan’s Payment Services Act, issuers and service providers in the crypto space must register with the FSA; operating without proper registration can invite enforcement actions and heightened consumer-protection concerns.

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The Sanae Token’s market capitalization fell from about $27.7 million to around $7 million after the denial by the prime minister’s office.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The episode illustrates how social signals can produce rapid, reversible moves, and a cautious stance may be prudent until regulatory clarity and project details emerge.

Market context: The incident ties into a wider trend of political-name crypto assets triggering volatility and regulatory attention as investors weigh branding risk, authenticity, and regulatory requirements within evolving crypto frameworks.

Why it matters

The Sanae Token episode underscores how branding, public perception, and political associations can ignite short-lived surges in crypto markets. For investors and observers, it reinforces the importance of separating hype from fundamentals, especially when an asset appears to base its value on branding rather than verifiable use cases or disclosures. Tokens tied to public figures can attract early liquidity, but they also carry heightened reputational and regulatory risk if the connection to the figure is uncertain or contested.

From a regulatory perspective, the developments illuminate the delicate balance authorities strike between fostering innovation and enforcing consumer protections. Japan’s framework requires crypto-asset service providers to register with the FSA, a standard designed to curb unregistered activity and ensure some level of due diligence. The possibility that the Sanae Token’s issuer may have operated without proper registration highlights the risk of enforcement actions and potential measures that could affect market access, investor confidence, and product governance in the sector.

Globally, the phenomenon of political-name tokens has surfaced in several markets as a test case for how regulators will treat branding-driven crypto ventures. In the United States, a Trump-themed memecoin drew attention and volatility around the time an official launch was announced on Jan. 17, 2025. The asset briefly spiked to around $73 before retreating, and it was trading nearer typical levels around $3.40 at the time of reporting. In Argentina, a Libra-based token gained global notice after a promotion by President Javier Milei on X, surging past $4.50 before collapsing to sub-$0.20 values within hours, prompting allegations of pump-and-dump activity. These instances illustrate how political narratives can drive liquidity and price, while regulators scrutinize misrepresentation, disclosures, and registration obligations.

What to watch next

• Whether the FSA formally opens an investigation into the Sanae Token’s issuer and the operators involved, and which specific actions or disclosures come under review.
• Any official statements from the token project or its backers addressing registration status and compliance with the Payment Services Act.
• Regulatory developments in Japan and other jurisdictions regarding political-name tokens and branding-driven crypto assets.
• Subsequent market moves for similar political-name tokens in the US, Argentina, and elsewhere, including any new official launches or enforcement actions.

Sources & verification

• Japan’s regulatory framework and the Payment Services Act as it relates to crypto-asset issuers and service providers.
• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s X post denying knowledge of or approval for the token, and her comment about preventing public misunderstanding (link).
• Gmgn data indicating the Sanae Token’s market capitalization and price action around February 25.
• Kyodo News reporting that the FSA was weighing a probe into the token’s issuance and related operators.
• Historical coverage of political-name tokens in the United States (Trump memecoin) and Argentina (Libra token) and the reported price movements and promotions surrounding those assets (announcement, Libragate timeline).

What the story means for the market

The Sanae Token case adds a data point to the ongoing discussion about how branding and public-office associations influence crypto demand, liquidity, and price discovery. It also reinforces the need for clear regulatory frameworks that can deter misrepresentation and protect investors while allowing genuine innovation to flourish. As authorities increasingly scrutinize crypto projects with political branding or affiliations, market participants may become more discerning about token narratives, disclosures, and the legitimacy of issuers—especially when official approvals or registrations are a prerequisite for operating in regulated environments.

Rewritten Article Body

The episode began with a rapid, speculative ascent for a token that carried the name of a prominent political figure, followed by a swift retrenchment once the public denial arrived. The Solana-based Sanae Token rose to a claimed market cap of about $27.7 million on Feb. 25, drawing attention from traders who monitor the intersections of politics and crypto. The spike occurred despite the absence of verifiable ties between the token and the Japanese prime minister’s office. In the hours that followed, the asset’s value deteriorated as investors digested the denial and reassessed the risk profile of a project anchored to a name rather than a clearly defined product or utility.

The public denial came through a concise message from Sanae Takaichi on X, where she emphasized that she had no knowledge of the token and that neither she nor her office had granted approval or been informed of its contents. The post, aimed at clarifying the situation and quelling misconceptions, is accessible on the official platform: https://x.com/takaichi_sanae/status/2028441855227236653.

Market observers quickly turned to regulatory signals as a potential counterweight to hype-driven moves. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan reportedly weighed a formal investigation into the token’s issuance and the operators behind it, according to Kyodo News. While the regulator had not publicly announced a formal inquiry, the possibility of closer scrutiny underscores the regulatory calculus facing crypto projects that combine branding with fundraising activities. Japan’s regime under the Payment Services Act requires crypto-asset exchanges and issuers to register with the FSA, a framework designed to curb unregistered activity and to impose disclosure and consumer-protection standards. The absence of registration could invite enforcement action and heightened scrutiny over investor protections.

Meanwhile, the broader phenomenon of political-name tokens has featured in other markets, illustrating that branding and public perception can generate sharp, if ephemeral, liquidity. In the United States, a token tied to former President Donald Trump drew attention as the team indicated an official launch in January 2025. The token briefly surged toward $73 before receding, and market observers noted trading levels around $3.40 at the time of reporting. Separately, an Argentine episode surrounding a Libra token drew international headlines after President Javier Milei endorsed it on social media; the asset jumped to above $4.50 but collapsed to sub-$0.20 within hours, prompting questions about possible pump-and-dump dynamics. These cases reflect a recurring theme where political branding can catalyze price moves that require regulatory context and investor discernment to interpret and respond to appropriately.

For investors and participants in the crypto ecosystem, the Sanae Token episode is a reminder that policy and governance structures play a critical role in shaping market outcomes. As regulators consider enforcement actions and registration requirements, and as projects navigate compliance frameworks, the quality of disclosures and the legitimacy of project teams become central to evaluating risk. The intersection of politics and crypto remains a dynamic frontier, one where headlines can transiently alter sentiment, but where durable value typically hinges on clear use cases, transparent governance, and adherence to regulatory norms.

TLDR:

• OKX’s OnchainOS now supports AI agents across 60+ networks with 99.9% uptime and 1.2B daily API calls.
  
• Developers can access OnchainOS through AI Skills, MCP Protocol, or a direct Open API for full control.
  
• The x402 payment protocol enables AI agents to settle transactions autonomously with zero gas fees on X Layer.
  
• Smart trade routing across 500+ DEXs allows agents to find the best swap prices without human involvement.

OnchainOS, OKX’s developer toolkit, now features a native AI layer built for autonomous blockchain operations. The update opens OKX Wallet and its decentralized exchange infrastructure to AI agents.

Developers can now program agents to manage wallets, execute trades, process payments, and read live market data.

The system runs on infrastructure already serving more than 12 million monthly wallet users. This move positions OKX as a central platform for onchain automation.

Three Access Methods Power the New AI Layer

OnchainOS gives developers three distinct ways to build with AI agents. Through AI Skills, agents interact with onchain services using plain language commands.

No complex API wiring or blockchain configuration is required. This lowers the entry barrier for teams newer to Web3 development.

The second method is through MCP, or Model Context Protocol. This connects OnchainOS directly to AI agents and large language model applications.

Major frameworks, including Claude Code and Cursor, can call onchain actions natively through this channel. Developers working within existing AI environments gain immediate access to blockchain functionality.

OKX stated through its official channels: “We are opening OKX Wallet and DEX to enable AI Agents. Our OnchainOS now has a full AI layer that developers can use to enable AI agents for new applications.”

The third option is a direct Open API, providing full RESTful programmatic access. Developers who need granular control over every platform capability can use this route.

It supports custom integrations without relying on higher-level abstractions. Together, the three methods cover a broad range of development workflows.

Autonomous Workflow Capabilities Built on Proven Infrastructure

OnchainOS routes trades across more than 500 decentralized exchanges automatically. The system identifies the best available price on every swap in real time.

Market data covers tokens, trades, transfers, and account activity across chains. Agents can act on this data without requiring human interpretation at any step.

Payments within the platform are built on the x402 protocol. This allows AI agents to initiate and settle transactions without manual involvement.

Transactions executed on OKX’s native X Layer chain carry zero gas fees. That makes high-frequency, machine-speed payments practical for automated agent workflows.

The infrastructure behind OnchainOS processes more than 1.2 billion API calls daily. It supports around $300 million in daily trading volume with sub-100ms response times.

The platform maintains 99.9% uptime across more than 60 blockchain networks. These metrics reflect a production-grade foundation that AI agents can operate on reliably.

Developers building on OnchainOS can deploy once across all supported chains. No chain-specific rewiring is needed when expanding agent operations to new networks.

As a result, the distance between what AI agents can do and what they can dependably execute onchain continues

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to below $67,000 as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove investors out of risk assets and into the U.S. dollar.

As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.

Shipping rates for crude and liquefied natural gas tankers surged after vessels were targeted in the region and several operators suspended activity. Brent crude climbed more than 13% in the past five days, while freight costs for large oil tankers reached record levels.

The shock is hitting financial markets. The dollar index (DXY) is up nearly 1% and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as investors move away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face renewed inflation pressure from rising fuel costs.

Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 earlier in the week but reversed course as the conflict erupted. Cryptocurrency prices have nevertheless remained range-bound despite the escalation.

The initial U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend pushed bitcoin and ether lower, triggering about $300 million in long liquidations, but QCP Capital analysts described the deleveraging as orderly compared with previous episodes earlier this year.

The analysts added that options markets showed a brief spike in short-term volatility, though positioning suggests traders were prepared for weekend risk.

“If we recall the previous U.S. strike on Iran last June (also a weekend), BTC broke below $100,000 as the news broke only to trade back above on Monday, and subsequently rallied to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts wrote. “While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself.”

Options flows show buyers are positioning themselves for a potential rally beyond the $70,000 mark. That suggests investors are looking for a rebound this month after the market’s severe downturn.

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the standoff, with conflicting statements from Iranian and U.S. officials over whether the waterway is closed. U.S. President Donald Trump has said the war is expected to last “four to five weeks.” Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
  • March 3: SolCex mobile app to launch on Google Play and Apple’s App Store.
• Macro
  • March 3, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone inflation rate YoY flash for February (Prev. 1.7%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.2%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to appoint PTT as the Tokenomics Workstream Leader for a 6-month term, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to explore the automatic execution of approved proposals and soft term limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,918.56 (24hrs: +0.57%)
• ETH is down 4.04% at $1,959.34 (24hrs: unchanged)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% at 1,927.49 (24hrs: +0.59%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.86%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.89% at 99.25
• Gold futures are down 0.30% at $5,278.60
• Silver futures are down 4.65% at $84.18
• Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05
• Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,768.08
• FTSE 100 is down 2.76% at 10,478.54
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 3.49% at 5,777.18
• DJIA closed on Monday down 0.15% at 48,904.78
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 9 bps at 4.05%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.83% at 6,762.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.30% at 24,448.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.74% at 48,104.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.81%
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $29.14
• Total Fees: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
• CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

• BTC/USD weekly remains technically constrained below the 200-week EMA, with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) of 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming a sideways grind between $65,000 and $70,000.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $185.24 (+5.34%), –5.64% at $174.80 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), –5.66% at $20.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), –4.97% at $8.98
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.43 (+0.86%), –5.11% at $15.59
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), –3.76% at $15.87
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), –4.83% at $10.04
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), –4.23% at $38.72
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), –6.57% at $89.82
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), –2.69% at $32.90

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), –4.42% at $131.56
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), –4.24% at $8.36
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), –5.41% at $6.99
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $458.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.24 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $38.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 5.67 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Japan prime minister Sanae Takaichi disavows Solana meme coin after it crashes by 75% (CoinDesk): Japan’s prime minister says she has no knowledge of or involvement in a Solana-based meme token that briefly reached a $27.7 million market cap before tumbling.

Iran war live: Israel strikes Tehran and Beirut; drones hit US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions tore through Tehran and Beirut and financial markets worldwide crumbled at the prospect of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies from U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

U.S. closes 2 Gulf embassies as Iran steps up retaliation (The New York Times): The U.S. closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone attacks and urged Americans to depart immediately from 14 Middle East countries, as Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes.

Dow futures fall; oil prices rise (The Wall Street Journal): Futures for the three main U.S. indexes dropped at least 1.4%. Stocks in Europe and Asia skidded, and oil prices rose, as the Middle East conflict showed signs of escalating on its fourth day.

A cryptocurrency using the name of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi briefly surged to a market value of about $27.7 million before sliding sharply after Takaichi publicly denied any connection to the token.

In a statement posted on X, Takaichi said she had no knowledge of the “Sanae Token,” adding that neither she nor her office had granted any approval related to it. She said the clarification was issued to prevent public misunderstanding. 

“Due to the name, it seems there are various misunderstandings, but regarding this token, I have absolutely no knowledge of it, nor has my office been informed about what this token entails,” she wrote. 

According to crypto data tracker Gmgn, the Solana-based crypto token briefly reached a market capitalization of $27.7 million on Feb. 25. Following Takaichi’s denial, its price and market cap declined sharply. At the time of writing, the token’s market capitalization stood at about $7 million.

FSA considers investigating the token

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly considering investigating parties involved in the token’s issuance.

According to Kyodo News on Tuesday, the regulator is weighing a probe into related operators to confirm the relevant facts. The FSA has not publicly announced a formal investigation.

Related: Bank of Japan testing blockchain settlement for bank deposits in new sandbox

The report said the company involved may lack the registration required to issue crypto assets in Japan.

Under Japan’s Payment Services Act, crypto asset exchange service providers must register with the FSA. Operating without proper registration can draw regulatory scrutiny, particularly where consumer protection concerns arise.

Political-name tokens draw scrutiny globally

Tokens referencing public figures have surfaced in multiple jurisdictions during recent speculative market cycles. 

In the US, tokens referencing President Donald Trump have periodically gained traction before the president announced an official token. 

On Jan. 17, 2025, Trump’s team announced the launch of an official Trump memecoin. The token briefly rose to about $73 before declining sharply. At the time of writing, it trades around $3.40, roughly 95% below its peak.

In Argentina, the Solana-based Libra token sparked an international scandal in February 2025 after President Javier Milei promoted it on X shortly after launch.

On Feb. 18, 2025, the token surged above $4.50 within minutes before crashing below $0.20 within hours, prompting allegations of a pump-and-dump scheme.