Crypto World
Traders on Polymarket Favor Meteora While ZachXBT Prepares Investigation Drop
TLDR
- Polymarket users increased bets on Meteora as the leading candidate in ZachXBT’s upcoming investigation.
- The contract for Meteora reached a 29 percent probability based on active trading behavior.
- ZachXBT stated that the investigation will expose employees who allegedly used internal data for insider trading.
- Traders wagered more than seven million dollars on which platform would be identified on Thursday.
- The investigation did not clarify whether the alleged insider trading involved stocks or digital assets.
Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket increased wagers on which exchange crypto sleuth ZachXBT will target next, and they pushed one project ahead quickly. The market showed heavy activity as users responded to new hints shared on X. The event drew fresh attention after he teased a “major investigation” linked to insider trading claims.
Polymarket Bets Shift Toward Meteora
As trading continued on Tuesday, users raised the probability that Meteora would be named in the probe. The contract reached 29% and moved past other listed platforms.
Users tracked each update closely, and they adjusted positions after his Monday post. However, the contracts still reflected crowd sentiment rather than privileged information.
He said the investigation would show that several employees at an unnamed exchange misused internal data. He added that they engaged in insider trading “over a prolonged period of time.”
Market participants responded fast, and they assessed which platform fit the description. The contract pool included MEXC, Axiom, and Wintermute.
By Tuesday, users had wagered more than $7 million across the choices. The total rose as traders sought clarity from his updates.
The market did not show whether the alleged insider trading involved stock or digital assets. Traders waited for his Thursday disclosure to confirm the scope.
His comments prompted rapid shifts in odds across the platform. Yet trading patterns continued to follow user guesswork rather than confirmed data.
Analysts tracking the contracts noted that trading volume increased during active discussion periods. Activity often rose within minutes of new social media posts.
The market structure allowed users to adjust quickly to every clue. However, the contract rules limited outcome definitions to his final announcement.
State Pushback and CFTC Position on Prediction Markets
Regulatory pressure increased as state officials clashed with federal regulators over these platforms. The dispute widened after the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission restated federal oversight powers.
He argued that the agency had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. He also compared them to derivatives markets.
He warned that any challenge from state authorities would be met in court. He confirmed that the agency had already filed amicus briefs in related disputes.
The platform also contested actions brought by the Massachusetts regulator. It argued that only the federal agency held authority over such markets.
Regulatory actions continued as several states pursued separate cases. These cases centered on claims that the platforms offered unlicensed gambling.
The ongoing jurisdiction conflict added pressure to both regulators and platforms. Yet trading on the platform remained active throughout the debate.
Crypto World
Leading stablecoin Tether shrinks again as market cap looks set for second straight monthly drop
Tether , the world’s largest stablecoin by market value, continues to shrink and looks set for a second straight monthly contraction, signaling challenging conditions for a sustainable broader market recovery.
Tether’s market capitalization has dropped by 0.8% to $183.61 billion this month, extending January’s 1% slide from a record $186.84 billion, according to data source CoinDesk. This hasn’t happened since TerraForm Labs’ collapse in 2022, which wiped out billions in investor wealth and shook investor confidence in stablecoins.
“Stablecoins are the fuel that powers crypto markets. When the fuel drains, everything slows down, and that is exactly what we are watching unfold,” Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, said in a post on LinkedIn.
Stablecoins are digital tokens whose value is pegged to an external reference, such as the U.S. dollar or other fiat currencies. They are often touted as tokenized versions of fiat currencies and help users bypass price volatility risks associated with other tokens, such as bitcoin.
That’s why, over the years, they have evolved into funding currencies for crypto trading and a mode of moving capital across borders, including day-to-day payments in some regions.
The ongoing contraction in tether indicates capital outflows from the crypto market. This, coupled with tepid demand for U.S.-listed spot ETFs, casts doubt on the sustainability of potential recovery rallies in bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
Bitcoin , the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has failed to build momentum since its downtrend paused near $60,000 on Feb. 6. Prices briefly bounced above $70,000 days later but have since pulled back to trade around $65,000, CoinDesk data show.
Note that the growth of other prominent stablecoins, such as the U.S.-regulated USDCoin (USDC), has stalled as well, though it’s been more resilient than tether.
While USDC’s market cap has recovered to nearly $75 billion from its January dip to $70 billion, it remains flat year to date.
A South Korean man has been indicted on attempted murder charges after allegedly poisoning his business partner with pesticide-laced coffee amid a dispute over more than $816,000 in crypto losses, according to local reports.
The Seoul Eastern District Prosecutors’ Office has accused a man in his 30s of adding the pesticide methomyl to his business partner’s drink during a meeting at a café in November, local news outlets Chosun and Asia Business Daily reported on Monday.
After drinking the coffee, the victim lost consciousness and collapsed. He was rushed to the hospital and regained consciousness three days later, according to reports.
Dispute over $800,000 in crypto losses
Starting in 2022, the two men reportedly operated an investment business managing Bitcoin (BTC) investment programs.
However, a dispute arose when the accused man allegedly lost over 1.17 billion Korean won ($816,000), including company funds he had personally invested, leading the alleged victim to assume control of the company’s finances.
The alleged victim, who was not named, told Asia Business Daily that at the time he claims he was poisoned, “I was about to get married, and my wife was in the early stages of pregnancy. My family was almost completely destroyed. I’ve recovered a lot now, but I still go to the hospital.”
Related: Bank of Korea renews call for bank-led won stablecoins as bill stalls
A trial date is scheduled for March 10 at the Seoul Eastern District Court, where the accused is facing charges of attempted murder and violation of the Pesticide Control Act.
The case comes amid a friendlier environment for crypto in South Korea since the election of President Lee Jae-myung in June, who has pushed forward with various crypto-related laws, including a bill to legalize stablecoins.
That’s led the local market to boom, with the number of crypto exchange users in South Korea surpassing 16 million last year, more than 30% of the population, as the crypto market hit new highs.
However, the wider crypto market saw a downturn late in 2025, as Bitcoin rapidly fell from its October peak of over $125,000 to trade under $90,000 by late December. It’s continued to fall and is now trading at around $65,500.
Magazine: South Koreans dump Tesla for Ethereum treasury BitMine: Asia Express
Hong Kong will set up a new digital asset platform this year to support the issuance and settlement of tokenized bonds, as the city pushes to move tokenization from pilot deals into core market infrastructure.
In his 2026-27 Budget speech delivered on Wednesday, Financial Secretary Paul Chan said CMU OmniClear Holdings, a subsidiary of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), will build the platform and extend it to other digital assets.
The system will also be linked with regional tokenization platforms. Chan said the platform would be “gradually extended to other digital assets and linked with other tokenisation platforms in the region,” adding that the move would consolidate Hong Kong’s role in digital asset development.
The announcement places tokenized bond settlement within the HKMA’s post-trade infrastructure, moving beyond pilot issuances toward integrated market systems.
Hong Kong has already tokenized several rounds of tokenized government bonds. Chan said the government issued its third batch of tokenized bonds in the fourth quarter of 2025, totaling 10 billion Hong Kong dollars ($1.28 billion). He added that the government would continue issuing tokenized bonds on a regular basis.
Stablecoin licensing and broader rules
Chan has also said Hong Kong plans to issue its first batch of fiat-referenced stablecoin licenses in March, with initial approvals expected to be limited.
He said the government will continue to facilitate licensed issuers in exploring use cases “in a compliant and risk-controlled manner.”
On Feb. 2, HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue announced that the regulator is preparing to grant its first stablecoin issuer licenses in March, with initial approvals expected to be limited.
Yue said reviews are focused on use cases, risk management, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) controls and asset backing.
Chan’s speech also stated that the government will introduce a bill to establish licensing regimes for digital asset dealing and custodian service providers.
He added that the Inland Revenue Ordinance will also be amended to implement the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, aligning Hong Kong with global tax transparency standards.
Related: Hong Kong regulator adds Victory Fintech to list of approved trading platforms
Liquidity push builds on earlier digital asset efforts
The infrastructure push comes alongside other recent efforts to expand Hong Kong’s regulated digital asset market.
On Feb. 11, the Securities and Futures Commission allowed licensed brokers to offer digital asset margin financing and outlined a framework for crypto perpetual contracts limited to professional investors.
Regulators said the measures aim to deepen liquidity while maintaining risk controls.
The measures outlined in the 2026–27 Budget extend that approach by integrating tokenized bond issuance and settlement into the city’s core financial infrastructure.
Magazine: Hong Kong stablecoins in Q1, BitConnect kidnapping arrests: Asia Express
Bitcoin prices continue to weaken and are approaching pain levels for long-term holders, according to analysts.
As Bitcoin markets fail to improve, analysts have been looking into the behavior of the different investor cohorts in the market.
“One of the cornerstone cohorts in this framework is long-term holders (LTH), known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations,” said CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ on Tuesday.
Currently, long-term holders are sitting on an average profit of roughly 74%, but this profit margin continues to decline as the price moves closer to the LTH cost basis, currently estimated at around $38,900, they said.
Bear Market Breaks Below Cost Basis
The analyst looked at historical cycles, noting that each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, “triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.”
Only when this happens, and markets begin to recover and enter a bull phase, the analyst noted.
BTC Drifting Toward the LTH Pain Point
“Looking at historical precedent, each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of ~20%.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/c50CHSzEBU
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 24, 2026
Glassnode reported on Tuesday that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has now fallen below 1, “confirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.” The analysis echoes that of Darkfost: historically, these bearish conditions persist for at least 6 months before liquidity returns to markets.
Meanwhile, analyst James Check said that Bitcoin has almost printed five consecutive red monthly candles, “following the largest volatility spike of the cycle.”
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He also observed that 1-week realised volatility spiked above 150%, “a level typically seen around capitulation events,” weekly RSI is at one of the “most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history,” and around $70 billion of BTC has migrated to new hands in the $60,000 to $70,000 range this year.
Bitcoin supply in loss just hit 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading ever, observed analyst James Van Straten, who added that the circulating supply hits 20 million BTC next week, and 50% is in loss.
“History suggests that’s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom,” he said.
Bitcoin Sees Small Rebound
There was a minor rebound during early trading in Asia on Wednesday morning, with BTC adding $2,000 to reclaim $66,000. However, the move does not appear to be natural, and bearish sentiment remains dominant.
Moreover, the move has formed another lower high with $60,000 still serving as support for lower lows.
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Bitcoin reclaimed $65,400 early Wednesday as a weaker U.S. dollar and a risk-on tone across Asian equities gave crypto markets their first clean bounce in weeks.
The broader crypto market cap had slipped to $2.19 trillion earlier this week, practically retesting the lows hit during the Feb. 5 crash. That proximity is what makes the current move interesting.
If the level holds, the market is looking at a textbook “double bottom” with roughly 10% upside, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. If it doesn’t, he warned, “a failure to rebound will signal the end of the recovery, opening the potential for a further 25% decline.”
A double bottom is a classic bullish chart pattern that signals a potential trend reversal after a downtrend. Imagine the price dropping to a low, then bouncing up a bit, forming resistance and then falling back to test that same low point. This creates a W-shaped structure with two “bottoms.” Once price breaks above the middle peak, a bullish reversal is confirmed.
The focus, therefore, is on whether the ongoing recovery rally extends beyond the brief bounce to $2.47 trillion market cap seen roughly 10 days ago.
Altcoins rise as dollar dips
In the meantime, major tokens are tracking bitcoin higher. Ether rose 4.2% over the past day, solana gained 7%, and XRP added 3%. The moves came as MSCI’s gauge for Asian equities climbed 1.4% to a record, led by South Korea and Taiwan, where AI-linked chipmakers hit all-time highs ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report later Wednesday.
The dollar provided a tailwind for risk assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower after President Trump’s State of the Union address, in which he doubled down on tariff plans despite the Supreme Court striking down his global import taxes.
He further suggested tariffs could eventually replace the income tax system entirely.
A weaker dollar has historically been constructive for bitcoin, though the relationship has been inconsistent during this drawdown cycle.
But conviction remains thin despite the bounce notwithstanding. Bloomberg reported that analysts it surveyed described a “crisis of confidence” in bitcoin after its nearly 50% decline from all-time highs, with no obvious new catalysts for growth.
FxPro’s Kuptsikevich went further, saying the market likely hasn’t bottomed yet and that “real capitulation is still ahead.”
Anchorage Digital, the first crypto firm to secure a U.S. banking charter, said Wednesday that its holding perpetual preferred stock in bitcoin treasury firm Strategy on its balance sheet.
Anchorage’s CEO Nathan McCauley called it “conviction compounding.”
“Institutions don’t just talk about Bitcoin, they structure around it. When the company that operationalizes Bitcoin infrastructure puts capital alongside the company that operationalized the Bitcoin treasury strategy…that’s a signal,” McCauley said on X.
Saylor responded by saying that “conviction is contagious,” hinting at a possibility of other firms soon following Anchorage’s lead in buying Strategy’s yield-generating preferred stock.
Anchorage’s investment is a capital vote for the bitcoin treasury playbook popularized by Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The flex also highlights deepening ties among bitcoin’s institutional faithful, even as prices wobble. Strategy is the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, boasting a coin stash of 717,722 BTC, worth $46.64 million.
Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, Short Duration High Yield Credit (STRC), ranks senior to common shares like MSTR while offering investors steady yields without an expiration date.
Launched in mid-2025, STRC pays 11.25% annual dividends to holders. This is paid monthly in cash, with its rate adjusted each month to keep trading stable around the $100 par value.
San Francisco-based Anchorage Digital, the first federally chartered U.S. crypto bank offers custody, trading, staking, and stablecoin services to institutions. The firm is establishing U.S.-compliant stablecoin rails for international banks, offering faster movement of assets across borders.
Vitalik Buterin earmarked 17,000 ether, worth about $43 million, for privacy projects in January. A month later, his wallet balance is down by roughly that amount, and the token he’s selling has lost more than a third of its value.
Arkham Intelligence data shows Buterin’s attributed wallets held about 241,000 ETH at the start of February. That figure now sits at 224,000 ETH after a steady series of outflows through the month, including $6.6 million over three days earlier in February and roughly another $7 million in the past three days alone.
The sales were executed through decentralized exchange aggregator CoW Protocol, broken into numerous smaller swaps rather than single large transactions.
The approach is standard practice for minimizing slippage on size, but it also means the selling has been a slow, consistent bleed rather than a one-time event.
The timing is uncomfortable. Ether has dropped 37% over the past month, according to CoinDesk market data, trading near $1,900 on Wednesday, and Buterin’s ongoing sales add headline pressure to a token already struggling for a narrative.
More than 30% of ETH supply remains locked in staking, but yields have compressed to around 2.8%, making the lock-up less attractive relative to risk-free alternatives.
Buterin announced the $43 million allocation in January, saying he had set aside 16,384 ETH to fund privacy-preserving technologies, open hardware, and secure software systems.
He described the effort as something he would personally lead as the Ethereum Foundation entered a period of “mild austerity” while maintaining its technical roadmap. The capital, he said, would be deployed gradually over several years.
Ether’s sell-off has widened the pain for corporate ETH holders. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, one of the largest, is estimated to be carrying billions in unrealized losses after ether fell roughly 60% in six months — dropping well below its average purchase price.
Cardano price is under pressure near $0.27 as whale accumulation grows and technical signals point to continued consolidation.
Summary
- ADA is trading near $0.27 after losing more than 70% from its 2025 highs.
- Large holders have accumulated over 819 million tokens despite the long downtrend.
- Technical indicators show weak momentum, with key resistance near $0.30.
Cardano was trading at $0.275 at press time, down 2.7% in the past 24 hours. The token sits near the midpoint of its weekly range between $0.2581 and $0.3004.
Cardano (ADA) has gained 6.5% over the past week, but it is still down 25% in the last 30 days and just over 60% lower year-over-year. Over the past six months alone, the price has fallen roughly 71% from the $0.90 region to current levels.
CoinGlass data shows $339 million in 24-hour trading volume, down 6.6%, while open interest also fell slightly. Lower volume and open interest during consolidation often reflects reduced speculative activity rather than panic selling.
Cardano whales stack up ADA
On Feb. 25, on-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that Cardano whales and sharks holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have accumulated 819.4 million ADA over the past six months, worth roughly $213.9 million at current prices.
During the same period, ADA’s price fell from around $0.90 to $0.26, a drop of more than 71%.
Large holders increasing positions while price declines can signal long-term accumulation. It suggests that high-capital participants view current levels as attractive. This type of activity often appears during late-stage downtrends, when weaker hands exit and stronger hands build positions.
However, accumulation alone does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Price confirmation is still required.
Development across the ecosystem continues to move forward, further boosting long-term price outlook. The Midnight privacy chain is close to launching on mainnet, a step that may unlock new applications in privacy‑focused finance.
Institutional involvement is rising as well. Grayscale Investments has increased its ADA position, and ADA has been approved as loan collateral on Coinbase.
Access is also being widened through futures listings and exchange-traded fund filings, bringing it further into established financial markets. These factors may improve liquidity pathways and long-term utility, which can support price if demand returns.
Cardano price technical analysis
Cardano’s daily chart shows a clear multi-month downtrend. Since the $0.90 region, price has formed consistent lower highs and lower lows. That structure confirms a bearish trend on higher timeframes.
Price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 50-day SMA, currently near the $0.27–$0.28 area, acts as dynamic resistance. As long as ADA trades beneath it, sellers hold structural control.
Bollinger Bands are compressing. Volatility has declined, as shown by the upper and lower bands tightening significantly. Often, this kind of squeeze precedes a sharp breakout, but the direction will only become clear once the price breaks.
Momentum is showing early signs of stabilization. After bouncing from below 30, the relative strength index now ranges in the high-30s to low-40s, indicating that selling pressure is easing. Still, momentum has yet to turn bullish.
Horizontal structure is clearly defined. The $0.25–$0.26 zone has acted as firm support, with multiple daily reactions showing demand absorption. Buyers continue defending that area. If this level breaks with strong volume, downside could accelerate toward the psychological $0.20 level.
The mid-Bollinger band and earlier rejection points are both in the $0.29–$0.30 range, where recent attempts at recovery have stalled. A clear move above $0.30 would alter the short-term structure, setting sights on $0.32.
Bitcoin adoption by institutions, banks, merchants, public companies, and state actors surged through 2025, even as the price retraced from its peak. A River report published this week notes that, despite Bitcoin down roughly 50% from its all-time high, adoption is compounding in ways that don’t immediately show up in the price. The study argues that there is no bear market in Bitcoin adoption and that trust in the asset has grown faster than for any other store of value in history. What began as an experimental project is now a globally recognized asset class with adoption patterns approaching those of the internet.
Key takeaways
- Institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC in 2025, spanning businesses, governments, funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
- Registered investment advisors have been net buyers for eight consecutive quarters, with approximately $1.5 billion funneled into Bitcoin ETFs per quarter over the past two years.
- Approximately 60% of the top US banks are actively building Bitcoin products, aided by a more favorable regulatory environment that allows custody and product offerings.
- Crypto treasury purchases dominated 2025 activity, with corporate buyers increasing exposure as adoption among treasuries grew about 2.5 times last year.
- Merchant adoption accelerated: US merchants accepting Bitcoin tripled, global usage rose 74% in 2025, and the Lightning Network saw a 300% jump in payments, now estimated to process over $1.1 billion in monthly volume.
- Five new nation-states joined the ranks of Bitcoin holders in 2025, including Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia through sovereign funds, and the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Taiwan via central-bank or state-linked channels; total state involvement spans at least 23 countries.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Neutral. Adoption trends have accelerated even as price movements remained subdued, suggesting a decoupling between on-chain demand and spot prices.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Structural demand from institutions and governments signals a sustained baseline, even if near-term price action remains uneven.
Market context: The 2025 dynamics unfold amid shifting liquidity, evolving risk appetite, and a steadily clearer regulatory framework for institutional crypto activity, including custody and product offerings, complemented by ongoing ETF and sovereign-interest flows.
Why it matters
The breadth of Bitcoin’s institutional footprint is reshaping how investors view the asset. The 829,000 BTC added in 2025 showcases a persistent appetite from a diverse set of players, including governments and large funds, rather than a temporary speculative surge. This level of accumulation intersects with broader questions about Bitcoin’s maturity as a store of value and potential hedge in diversified portfolios. The River analysis highlights that much of the uptake is happening through channels that touch ordinary investors—through brokerage accounts, retirement plans, and corporate balance sheets—underscoring how widespread exposure has become.
On the payments and merchant side, the acceleration is equally notable. The number of merchants accepting Bitcoin in the United States has tripled, while global usage rose by a material margin in 2025. The Lightning Network, a layer-2 solution designed to enable faster microtransactions, grew its activity by about 300% in the year, with monthly volume surpassing an estimated $1.1 billion. These metrics point to a real-world utility trajectory that complements the broader narrative of Bitcoin as a digital money and store of value rather than a purely speculative vehicle.
State participation also expanded meaningfully. In 2025, five new nation-states joined the ranks of Bitcoin holders, including Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Taiwan. River estimates place the total number of sovereign or state-backed exposures at roughly two dozen countries, illustrating how Bitcoin’s role in public policy and central-bank curiosity is broadening beyond the early-adopter phase. The evolving mix of buyers—from sovereign funds to central banks to corporate treasuries—helps to illustrate why many observers describe Bitcoin as a global, increasingly diversified asset class rather than a niche technology experiment.
“We expect that in the coming years, Bitcoin adoption will not only continue its current trend, but meaningfully accelerate.”
The narrative painted by River aligns with a growing chorus that Bitcoin’s long-run fundamentals are increasingly decoupled from day-to-day volatility. Some market observers argue that as volatility converges toward the range of gold and broad equity indices, the hurdle for more risk-averse institutions lowers, potentially widening the pool of capital that views Bitcoin as a strategic, long-horizon exposure.
For readers seeking a concise anchor, River’s ongoing research emphasizes that Bitcoin is built on trust and, in their view, remains the world’s most credible scarce digital asset. While headlines will continue to swing with price action, the substance of adoption—across institutions, banks, merchants, and states—appears to be widening rather than narrowing.
What to watch next
- Regulatory clarity in the United States regarding custody and Bitcoin-based products offered by banks and financial institutions.
- Continued ETF inflows and any new filings or approvals that broaden access to Bitcoin-related funds for retail and institutional investors.
- Further sovereign or central-bank engagement, including potential expansion of state-backed mining or reserves allocations.
- Development and scaling of the Lightning Network to sustain higher transaction volumes for merchants and payment processors.
- Corporate treasury strategies and a potential uptick in public-company BTC holdings as part of balance-sheet optimization.
Sources & verification
- River, Bitcoin Adoption 2026 report and related materials (river.com/content/bitcoin-adoption-2026).
- River’s data on 2025 BTC accumulation by institutions (River status report linked in the same publication).
- Related coverage on public-company Bitcoin holdings and treasury adoption (Cointelegraph link: cointelegraph.com/news/public-companies-bitcoin-holdings-prices-crypto-dat).
- Lightning Network growth and estimated monthly volume (> $1.1B) referenced in River’s framework and corroborating coverage (cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-lightning-network-1b-monthly-volume).
- Context on sovereign and institutional participation as described in River’s analysis (River article and commentary embedded in the 2026 update).
Institutional adoption reshapes Bitcoin’s 2025 narrative
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) adoption by institutions, banks, merchants, public companies, and state actors accelerated throughout 2025, even as the asset’s price retraced from record levels. A River analysis published in 2025 underscored that the pace of adoption continued to outstrip price movements, signaling a maturation of the ecosystem that extends beyond speculative interest. The report states that “there is no bear market in Bitcoin adoption” and that trust in the asset has expanded at a pace unmatched by any prior store of value, with patterns of usage and ownership increasingly resembling the diffusion of the internet itself. The narrative frames Bitcoin not merely as a volatile crypto asset but as a globally recognized store of value with global reach and an expanding base of mainstream participants.
In terms of on-chain activity, River tallies show that institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC in 2025, spanning purchases by businesses, government entities, funds, and ETFs. The research notes a persistent trend among registered investment advisors, who have been net buyers for eight consecutive quarters, and highlights that Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $1.5 billion in new money per quarter across the last two years. These numbers illuminate a broader trend: exposure is increasingly consolidated through regulated vehicles and diversified ownership channels, moving Bitcoin from a niche asset to a staple element of diversified portfolios.
Layering into custody and product access, the report points to a striking statistic: around six in ten of the top US banks are actively pursuing or developing Bitcoin-related offerings. River emphasizes a favorable regulatory environment in the United States, which has opened the door for banks to custody Bitcoin and to offer related products to retail and institutional clients. The combination of improved access and enhanced custody capability is a potent driver of continued adoption, the analysis argues, even if the immediate price action remains volatile.
Beyond traditional financial players, corporate balance sheets emerged as a major source of demand. The year 2025 saw corporations emerge as the largest buyers of BTC, with a notable share driven by treasury-management strategies. River notes that corporate demand grew roughly 2.5 times year over year, underscoring the strategic role that Bitcoin is playing in reserve management for some companies. The shift from proof-of-concept experiments to real-world treasury deployments marks a meaningful transition in Bitcoin’s evolution as a corporate- and institution-facing asset.
On the payments front, River documented acceleration in merchant adoption and consumer usage. In the United States, the number of merchants accepting Bitcoin rose dramatically—twice on the doorsteps of mainstream commerce—and global usage rose 74% in 2025. The Lightning Network, designed to facilitate faster and cheaper microtransactions, expanded its footprint by approximately 300% in 2025 and is now estimated to process over $1.1 billion in monthly volume. The growth of Lightning is a tangible indicator of the network’s practical utility, moving Bitcoin from a store of value to an on-ramp for everyday payments in a growing number of contexts.
State involvement also expanded meaningfully. River identifies five new nation-states becoming Bitcoin owners in 2025, including Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia via sovereign-backed channels and the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Taiwan through central-bank or state-linked arrangements. While the precise mechanisms vary, the cumulative effect is a broader and more formalized exposure to Bitcoin across sovereign balance sheets. River’s broader estimate places the number of states with some Bitcoin exposure at roughly 23, whether through mining, seizures, or direct holdings.
The broader takeaway is clear: Bitcoin’s volatility is converging toward the realm of traditional assets such as gold and major stock indices, reinforcing the asset’s maturation in the eyes of a growing cohort of risk-conscious investors. The report suggests that as volatility subsides, institutions with more conservative mandates may become comfortable with increasing allocations over time, potentially unlocking additional pools of capital that have historically been wary of crypto markets.
In wrapping up, River frames Bitcoin as a trust-based, scarce digital asset that has evolved from a speculative experiment into a globally recognized instrument with tangible use cases—from corporate treasuries to real-time payments and beyond. While the market will continue to echo a variety of price scenarios, the underlying growth in adoption signals a lasting shift in how Bitcoin is perceived and used on a global scale.
Kash, a social-native prediction market platform, has raised $2 million in pre-seed funding to transform how conviction is expressed online. Built directly into social media, and starting with X, Kash turns everyday posts into live, tradable markets on real-world events, embedding forecasting into the social feed itself.
Backed by leading venture investors including Big Brain Holdings, Spartan Group, Coinbase Ventures, Kosmos Ventures, Halo Capital, MoonRock Capital, Polaris Fund, and Fabric VC, Kash is positioning prediction markets where attention already lives: inside the platforms that shape global conversation.
Rather than debating outcomes in comment threads, users can now express conviction through simple interactions with @kash_bot. No new clunky apps. No complex external trading interfaces. Just scroll, quote-post, predict, and let the market price the truth in real time.
“We’re embedding an entirely new financial vehicle where people already live, and enabling users to place, and even permissionlessly create prediction markets, directly from their feed,” said Lucas Martin Calderon, Founder and CEO of Kash.
“People already hold opinions on elections, macro, sports, and culture. Kash transforms those opinions into tradable positions and rewards those who are right.”
Bridging Institutional Infrastructure and Consumer Attention
Before founding Kash, Lucas worked at the intersection of blockchain security and AI, collaborating with governments and tier-one banks to architect secure on-chain systems. He later worked alongside leading crypto hedge funds on high-frequency trading strategies, gaining firsthand experience in how markets aggregate and price information at scale.
Those experiences pointed to a clear shift: prediction markets are approaching an inflection point. The world has never been more uncertain, and as information accelerates and trust fragments, markets will determine what is credible. Kash brings that mechanism directly into where information spreads fastest.
Posts become markets. Engagement becomes a signal. Every prediction is settled transparently on-chain. Leaderboards, dynamic multipliers, and weekly competitive games make forecasting social and participatory, while the underlying infrastructure ensures trustless execution and automated resolution, which virally grow across social media feeds.
Kash is also extending its infrastructure beyond its core product, working with several companies to embed prediction markets directly into their own platforms and communities, unlocking new forms of engagement and user acquisition. This is the first time large social media accounts can engage with their audience in an entirely new way, making people have skin-in-the-game around any short-lived narrative.
“Prediction markets are one of the most robust truth-finding mechanisms in finance. The missing piece has been distribution. Kash solves that by embedding markets natively into X, where the information and opinions already flow.” said Lata Persson from Fabric VC. “We’re excited to back Lucas and the Kash team, who bring a rare combination of deep experience in how institutional markets aggregate information, and a clear-eyed view of where consumer attention lives.”
Why This Moment Matters
Prediction markets have historically lived on niche trading platforms. Meanwhile, billions of users debate outcomes daily on social media without economic accountability.
Kash sits at the convergence of two forces:
- The financialization of attention
- The growing demand for real-time, trustless information systems
“We’re not building a feature, we’re defining a new behaviour,” said Lucas. “Prediction markets shouldn’t be confined to professional traders. They should be native to how people interact with uncertainty every day.”
To support this evolution, Kash is forming a Prediction Market Council, bringing together researchers, investors, and operators to define standards and guide the responsible expansion of this emerging category.
Kash’s Technology Is Ridiculously Impressive
Kash is the first and only prediction market protocol that enables:
- permissionless prediction market creation: any user can create any market
- short-lived flash markets: Kash can create markets that last as little as 15 mins to weeks
- leverage: users can trade with leverage, native to the protocol
- natively embeds within social media feeds: leveraging familiar and existing user habits
This is only possible through Kash’s custom Bonding Curve Automated Market Maker mechanism, which Lucas created from scratch, fully adapted to social media dynamics and permissionless flash markets for the first time.
Furthermore, Kash is pioneering how AI is used in prediction markets when it comes to market creation and resolution. Kash is the first protocol that will commercialise the most advanced multi-agentic high-reasoning LLM Council that trustlessly verifies its outcomes using zero-knowledge proof cryptography.
Path to Launch
Kash has launched its pre-testnet simulation on X through “Kash Flash: The Sovereign Signal,” a weekly competitive prediction series identifying the platform’s most accurate forecasters. Top performers earn “Signal” Tickets, granting early access, testnet privileges, and enhanced mainnet participation.
With pre-seed capital secured, Kash is scaling infrastructure, expanding its team, and accelerating toward a broader launch. As social platforms continue to dominate global attention, Kash is building the infrastructure that turns conversation into markets, and markets into signals.
About Kash
Kash is a social-native prediction market platform embedded into X, enabling users to trade on real-world events directly within their feed. Founded by Lucas Martin Calderon, Kash combines institutional-grade infrastructure with social-native design to make forecasting accessible, competitive, and economically meaningful.
For more information: Visit kash.bot | Announcement on X @kash_bot | Follow @lmc_security
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