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TradFi Deleveraging Triggered Feb 5 Crypto Crash

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Will the crypto market recover as the sell-off intensifies?

Bitwise advisor Jeff Park attributed the February 5 crypto selloff to multi-asset portfolio deleveraging rather than crypto-specific factors.

Summary

  • February 5 selling was driven by multi-asset fund deleveraging, not crypto-native fear.
  • CME basis trades unwound violently as pod shops de-grossed across portfolios.
  • Short gamma and structured product hedging amplified downside despite ETF inflows.

IBIT recorded 10 billion in trading volume, doubling its previous high, while options activity hit historic levels led by put contracts rather than calls.

The crash saw Bitcoin (BTC) fall 13.2% yet IBIT posted $230 million in net creations with 6 million new shares, bringing total ETF inflows above $300 million.

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Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage desk reported February 4 was one of the worst daily performances for multi-strategy funds with a z-score of 3.5. This was a 0.05% probability event 10 times rarer than a three-sigma occurrence.

Park wrote that risk managers at pod shops forced indiscriminate de-grossing, explaining why February 5 turned into a bloodbath.

CME basis trade unwinding drove violent deleveraging

Park identified the CME basis trade as a primary driver of selling pressure. The near-dated basis jumped from 3.3% on February 5 to 9% on February 6, one of the largest moves observed since ETF launch.

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Multi-strategy funds like Millennium and Citadel hold large positions in the Bitcoin ETF complex and were forced to unwind basis trades by selling spot while buying futures.

IBIT showed tight correlation with software equities rather than gold over recent weeks. Gold is not typically held by multi-strategy funds as part of funding trades, confirming that drama centered on these funds rather than retail investment advisors.

The catalyst originated from software equity selloffs rather than crypto-native selling.

Structured products created crypto bloodbath

Structured products with knock-in barrier features contributed to selling acceleration. A JPMorgan note priced in November carried a barrier at $43,600.

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Notes priced in December when Bitcoin dropped 10% would have barriers in the $38,000-$39,000 range.

Put buying behavior in crypto-native markets over preceding weeks meant crypto dealers held naturally short gamma positions.

Options were sold too cheaply relative to outsized moves that eventually materialized, worsening the downside. Dealers held short gamma on puts from the $64,000-$71,000 range.

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February 6 recovery saw CME open interest expand faster than Binance. The basis trade partially recovered, offsetting outflow effects while Binance open interest collapsed.

Park concluded that tradfi derisking was the catalyst that pushed Bitcoin to levels where short gamma hedging ramped up declines through non-directional activity requiring additional inventory.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

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Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

Bitcoin erased its weekend gains as it fell below $74,000 on Sunday after the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, putting pressure on a ceasefire between the two countries. 

Bitcoin (BTC) had soared above $78,300 late Friday on Coinbase, its highest price since early February, but dropped to between $75,000 and $76,000 over the weekend after Iran said it would close vital oil routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

The cryptocurrency then sank sharply late on Sunday to briefly trade below $74,000 after the US military said it opened fire on, and later seized, an Iranian cargo ship it claimed tried to run its blockade of Iranian ports, with Tehran accusing the US of violating an agreed ceasefire. 

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which had helped boost the markets and temper oil prices, is set to end on Wednesday.

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Bitcoin’s price in US dollars on Coinbase over the last five days has fallen over the weekend amid rising tensions between the US and Iran. Source: TradingView

Tehran has vowed to retaliate over the US military’s seizure of the ship and has rejected a new round of peace talks slated for Monday in Islamabad, Pakistan, due to the US blockade, Iranian state media reported.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $90K as whales absorb 20x daily BTC supply in 30 days

US stock futures sank Sunday night amid rising tensions, with S&P 500 futures dropping 0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures falling 0.6% and Dow Jones futures declining 0.9%, or about 450 points.

Oil futures also soared amid the hostilities and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil futures rising over 4.5% to over $95 a barrel.

The Crypto Fear & Greed index rose by two points to a score of 29 out of 100 on Monday, its highest score since late January, but which still indicated a sentiment of “fear.”

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