Bank of America has projected three Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year, adding to concerns that tighter monetary policy could create fresh pressure for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

According to a Reuters report, Bank of America Global Research now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September, October, and December meetings, bringing the policy rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50% by year-end.

The forecast represents a sharp departure from the bank’s earlier expectation that rates would remain unchanged throughout the year. The revised outlook arrives as investors prepare for the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Economists surveyed ahead of the June 24 release expect headline PCE inflation to rise 0.5% month-over-month in May after a 0.4% increase in April. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.1% from 3.8%, while core PCE is forecast to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.4% from a year earlier.

A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that policymakers will keep borrowing costs elevated for longer or even tighten policy further.

Wall Street forecasts point to a more hawkish Fed

In explaining its revised outlook, Bank of America said the Federal Reserve appears more focused on inflation risks than previously anticipated.

The bank wrote that the Fed’s June economic projections and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh suggested policymakers were operating with a more hawkish reaction function than earlier estimates indicated.

Another large institution has moved in a similar direction. Per the Reuters report, Deutsche Bank has also adopted a more hawkish outlook, forecasting two quarter-point rate hikes this year in September and December.

The bank additionally outlined a scenario in which policymakers could consider a July increase, while noting that easing energy prices and improving inflation expectations may reduce the need for immediate action.

A separate forecast from BNP Paribas points to additional tightening as well. As previously reported by crypto.news, the French bank expects three rate hikes beginning in December after abandoning its prior assumption that policy would remain unchanged.

BNP Paribas linked its outlook to resilient labor-market conditions, stronger-than-expected employment data, and rising inflation pressures that it partly associates with the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The bank also projected the unemployment rate could fall toward 4% by year-end, potentially giving policymakers more room to concentrate on inflation.

Bitcoin traders watch inflation and rate signals

Recent pricing in prediction and futures markets shows investors remain divided on the Fed’s next move.

Data from Kalshi indicates a 22% probability of a rate increase in July, while a pause remains the most likely outcome. Separately, CME FedWatch data shows traders assigning a 51.7% probability to a quarter-point hike at the September meeting.

Market-based expectations also point toward tighter policy. According to LSEG pricing data, traders have priced in approximately 41.2 basis points of additional tightening over the course of the year.

Higher interest rates typically reduce liquidity available for speculative investments while increasing the appeal of yield-bearing assets such as U.S. Treasuries. Because of that relationship, digital assets often face pressure when investors anticipate tighter monetary conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently traded within the $64,000-$65,000 range despite improving geopolitical sentiment following developments related to the U.S.-Iran situation. With inflation data due this week and major banks raising their forecasts for future rate increases, traders are closely watching whether incoming economic data strengthens the case for additional Fed tightening. 

Crypto-backed political groups have spent at least $7 million on key Democratic primary races as lawmakers continue negotiating the CLARITY Act ahead of an increasingly crowded congressional calendar.

According to reports on recent campaign spending, crypto political action committees have increased their activity ahead of several Democratic primaries while lawmakers continue negotiating the CLARITY Act in Washington.

Among the largest beneficiaries is Maryland State Delegate Adrian Boafo, who is seeking to succeed retiring Congressman Steny Hoyer in Maryland’s 5th Congressional District. Protect Progress, an affiliate of Fairshake, has spent roughly $5.5 million supporting Boafo’s campaign, making him one of the most heavily funded crypto-backed candidates in the current election cycle.

Facing more than 20 Democratic opponents, Boafo currently leads prediction market rankings. His campaign has also secured endorsements from Hoyer, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, and Senator Angela Alsobrooks. Alsobrooks has been involved in discussions surrounding federal digital asset legislation, including both the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act.

Commenting on his policy priorities, Boafo has also positioned himself as a supporter of digital asset and blockchain policy initiatives.

“I’m proud to be a strong advocate for policies that create new economic opportunities for Marylanders in the 5th Congressional District, and digital assets are no exception.”

Crypto PACs increase pressure through campaign spending

Elsewhere on the East Coast, Protect Progress has directed approximately $1.5 million toward the reelection campaign of Representative Ritchie Torres in New York’s 15th Congressional District. Torres has long supported cryptocurrency policy initiatives and helped establish the Congressional Crypto Caucus.

Additional backing has come from Fellowship PAC, which has reportedly spent around $300,000 on advertising supporting Torres ahead of Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

The latest expenditures follow Fairshake’s largest spending effort of the election season. Earlier in the cycle, the crypto-focused political network committed roughly $12 million to Alabama’s Republican Senate primary runoff in support of Representative Barry Moore.

Taken together, the campaigns demonstrate how crypto-funded political organizations are continuing to deploy significant capital in congressional races while federal lawmakers debate the future structure of digital asset regulation.

CLARITY negotiations continue as lawmakers seek support

At the same time, attention in Washington remains fixed on the CLARITY Act, a proposal designed to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S.

According to Crypto In America, lawmakers are still working through issues related to committee language, ethics provisions, and safeguards against illicit finance. Several Senate meetings have been scheduled as negotiations continue.

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt and Senator Bill Hagerty have both expressed optimism that progress can be made before lawmakers leave for the July 4 recess. Industry organizations are also increasing their engagement with policymakers.

This week, the Digital Chamber has organized meetings between member companies and lawmakers in an effort to build support for the legislation. Speaking to Crypto In America, Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said urgency is growing as available legislative time continues to shrink.

Separate comments from Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman suggest that educating lawmakers remains a significant hurdle. As previously reported by crypto.news, Boozman said after a June 18 Senate meeting that many members still do not fully understand the legislation, complicating efforts to build support across the chamber.

Because much of the proposal falls under the Agriculture Committee’s jurisdiction, the panel has become central to ongoing negotiations.

Senate offices continue to work through unresolved sections of the bill as congressional leaders face pressure to settle outstanding issues before lawmakers depart Washington for the August recess.

Bitcoin BTC$64,544.53 has risen 1.4% since midnight UTC, catching a tailwind as hopes for an Iran-U.S. deal sent oil prices lower. The move provided a lift to major altcoins, with ether (ETH) adding 2.4% and solana (SOL) and BNB advancing about 1.5%. XRP lagged with a 0.7% gain.

Despite the green shoots among the majors, the broader market has yet to follow suit. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) remains slightly lower over 24 hours. Still, smaller outliers like DEXE and BEAT jumped of 8% and 5%.

Monday’s bounce, however, is being met with heavy skepticism from some analysts, particularly when comparing bitcoin’s price with its simple moving average (SMA).

“BTC has clawed back to $64K but nothing behind it. The 200-week SMA near $62.2K held the weekend dips, and that line with the $60K shelf is what separates a base from a deeper leg, while $66K to $68K caps the upside,” analysts at Marx said in an email.

“We buy near the 200 week and sell into resistance, we do not chase the middle,” they added.

UK Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer has today announced that he’s to step down as leader of the Labour party, triggering a leadership contest that will likely result in the former Mayor of Greater Manchester and member of Parliament for Makerfield Andy Burnham being handed the keys to 10 Downing Street.

Burnham won a key local election last week in the Makerfield constituency, a victory perceived to be an indicator of public appetite for his role as Labour leader.

But what does Burnham know about crypto?

Burnham attended a crypto event in Manchester in 2024 that was hosted by local crypto group Manchester Blockchain Alliance and Coinbase-backed crypto lobbying firm Stand With Crypto.

In a nine-minute speech, he spoke about the importance of expanding the digital sector in the city, the benefits of crypto’s tendency to “disrupt,” and how young people need to be able to see the job opportunities crypto can provide.

Read more: Russia offered crypto to firebomb Sir Keir Starmer’s home, report

He said that Manchester could become a “web3 powerhouse,” and that when it comes to marrying economic progress with social progress, “web3 could be the democratisation of it all.”

Despite noting that his understanding of crypto is “rudimentary,” he said, “I’m in, I’m bought in, I love the sound of it.”

Stand With Crypto has its own crypto position checkers for politicians and claims that both Burnham and Starmer have “no stance” on crypto. This is despite their public statements on the sector. 

Farage still dogged by billionaire backing scandal

Burnham has already found himself embroiled in the controversy surrounding Nigel Farage’s £5 million gift from billionaire Tether investor Christopher Harborne.

Indeed, in a now deleted post, Farage used AI to depict immigrants in a dinghy holding placards in support of Burnham. Farage claimed Burnham acted “for them.” 

In response, Burnham noted that Farage was “getting desperate,” and said, “Maybe keep your crypto millions for something else.”

Read more: Nigel Farage accused of undervaluing Christopher Harborne jet loan by $666K

Days before this comment, Burnham also said that “the crypto money is kicking in” when responding to a user that claimed their social media feed was negatively geared against him because “power brokers are clearly paying the big bucks to keep [Burnham] out.”

Burnham’s comments were made one month after Farage was revealed to have accepted £5 million ($6.6 million) from Harborne. 

Farage kept the sum a secret and maintains that it didn’t have to be declared as it was a personal gift for security and helping to deliver Brexit. 

Harborne has donated over £25 million ($33 million) to Reform UK. These donations were partly why the UK, under Starmer’s leadership, introduced a cap on political donations from overseas donors in March. 

Burnham thinks cap on donations is right

Burnham told Byline Times that he would welcome a cap, noting that he would’ve started higher than the £100,000 ($132,000) cap currently set and reduce it over time. 

He said a cap would help stop the “perception of any one party being unduly influenced or swayed by one person or organisation.”

Alongside this donation cap, the UK also introduced a temporary ban on political crypto donations until UK regulation catches up.

The most recent crypto regulations came from the Bank of England today. The bank relaxed its proposed stablecoin regulation, dropping plans to cap the amount an individual can hold and instead introducing a £40 billion ($53 billion) issuance limit for each stablecoin.

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Key Takeaways

• Alphabet shares declined approximately 6% Monday, reaching $343.30 during morning hours
• Noam Shazeer, Google VP and Gemini AI co-lead, is departing for OpenAI
• John Jumper, Nobel laureate and AlphaFold creator, is leaving Google DeepMind for Anthropic
• California court rejected Google’s motion for a new trial in youth addiction lawsuit
• Analysts maintain Strong Buy rating with average target price of $427.38

Alphabet shares tumbled approximately 6% during Monday’s trading session, settling at $343.30 in morning activity, as the tech giant confronted multiple adverse developments simultaneously. The decline deepened to 7% at certain points throughout the day, erasing roughly $250 billion from the company’s market valuation.

Alphabet Inc., GOOGL

The most significant impact stemmed from consecutive announcements of prominent AI researchers joining competing organizations.

Noam Shazeer, holding the position of VP of Engineering at Google and serving as co-lead for the Gemini AI platform, revealed his decision to transition to OpenAI. The company had invested approximately $2.7 billion to recruit Shazeer back from Character.AI barely two years prior.

Shortly afterward, John Jumper, a Nobel Prize recipient and senior research scientist at Google DeepMind who co-developed AlphaFold, announced his move to Anthropic following nearly a decade at Google.

AlphaFold successfully predicted structural configurations for more than 200 million proteins, representing a transformative achievement with significant ramifications for medical research and biological sciences. The departure of the scientist responsible for this innovation — to a competing firm — carries substantial weight.

These consecutive departures sparked renewed debate about whether Google is falling behind in the artificial intelligence competition. Several market observers cautioned that the performance differential between Gemini and cutting-edge models from OpenAI and Anthropic might be widening.

Mounting Legal Challenges Compound Investor Concerns

In legal developments, a California court rejected Google and YouTube’s request for a retrial following a jury verdict determining their platforms were intentionally designed to create addictive behavior in minor users. This decision exposes Alphabet to financial liabilities and potential similar legal actions.

The United Kingdom’s proposed prohibition on social media access for individuals under 16, combined with enhanced chatbot regulations, introduces additional uncertainty for YouTube’s younger demographic and associated advertising income.

Market participants are also scrutinizing Alphabet’s financial position. The corporation recently executed an $84.75 billion equity offering, prompting speculation about potential suspension of share repurchase programs. Its projected capital expenditures for 2026 range between $180–$190 billion, a threshold anticipated to squeeze free cash flow profitability.

Market Conditions Offered Little Relief

The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.1% while the S&P 500 decreased 0.4% Monday, yet Alphabet’s losses significantly exceeded these benchmark indices. This disparity indicates company-specific challenges rather than general technology sector weakness.

GOOGL currently trades substantially beneath its 52-week peak of $408.61. The stock has surrendered considerable appreciation accumulated from its 52-week bottom of $162.

Important perspective: Alphabet’s Google Cloud division maintains expansion momentum, with its committed contract backlog exceeding annual revenue figures. Core business fundamentals remain intact.

Social media discussion contributed to selling pressure. Citrini Research published analysis on X suggesting hyperscale cloud providers might issue more than twice current projected debt levels during 2027–2028 to finance AI infrastructure — including processors, computing facilities and related equipment. This assessment unsettled investors already concerned about AI capital deployment exceeding financial returns.

Notwithstanding Monday’s selloff, Wall Street analysts haven’t abandoned their bullish stance. The consensus rating on GOOGL stands at Strong Buy, supported by 28 Buy recommendations and five Hold ratings issued during the previous three months. The mean price objective reaches $427.38, suggesting approximately 23% appreciation potential from present trading levels.

The departures also come as the foundation has unveiled a new strategic framework known as “CROPS,” an acronym standing for cypherpunk values, resilience, open-source development, permissionlessness and security. Foundation leaders presented the framework as a way to clarify the EF’s mission and reinforce Ethereum’s core values as the ecosystem becomes increasingly decentralized. Supporters viewed it as a reaffirmation of Ethereum’s founding principles, while critics argued it did little to address concerns about execution, organizational effectiveness and the network’s competitive position.

Among the most vocal critics was former Ethereum researcher Dankrad Feist, who suggested the recent spate of executive departures reflected deeper management issues rather than disagreements over strategy.

“The people who are leaving the Ethereum Foundation are CROPS believers,” Feist wrote on X. “The problem isn’t with the strategy, it’s with management.”

Feist’s comments were notable because they challenged the prevailing idea that recent departures stemmed from dissatisfaction with the foundation’s new direction. Instead, he argued that many of those leaving supported the CROPS vision itself, making the loss of talent a reflection of leadership shortcomings rather than ideological disagreements. “The exodus of talent is truly bearish for Ethereum, sadly,” he added.

Other community members echoed concerns about the Foundation’s internal dynamics. “It makes me sad to see the dysfunction at the Ethereum Foundation,” head of engineering at Coinbase Yuga Cohler wrote on X.