Key Highlights

• Trading volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US surged to $44.8 billion in June, marking a 75% increase from May’s figures
• Kalshi dominated growth with an impressive 87.4% month-over-month expansion, totaling $31.5 billion
• Polymarket’s international platform jumped 45% to $10.26 billion, while its U.S. version reached $3.04 billion
• FIFA World Cup 2026, launching June 11, served as the primary catalyst for unprecedented trading activity
• Kalshi’s World Cup championship market alone accumulated over $832 million in wagers, with France leading at 35% probability

The prediction market industry witnessed its most explosive month ever in June, with major platforms Kalshi and Polymarket experiencing unprecedented growth driven primarily by FIFA World Cup 2026 enthusiasm.

New figures from The Block reveal that Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US collectively generated $44.8 billion in trading activity throughout June. This represents a substantial 75% leap compared to the $25.66 billion recorded in May.

These statistics underscore the rapidly expanding mainstream acceptance of prediction markets, platforms where participants wager actual funds on outcomes spanning political contests, sporting events, and other real-world developments.

Kalshi Dominates Market Share

Kalshi emerged as the clear leader among the three platforms, demonstrating exceptional performance. Monthly volume skyrocketed from $16.81 billion in May to $31.5 billion in June, representing an 87.4% monthly surge.

This achievement positions Kalshi as the undisputed volume leader, capturing over two-thirds of the combined three-platform total.

Polymarket’s primary international platform generated $10.26 billion throughout June, representing a 45% uptick from May’s $7.08 billion figure.

After experiencing consecutive monthly declines from March through May, Polymarket successfully reversed its downward trajectory in June.

Meanwhile, Polymarket US, the platform’s CFTC-regulated American operation, secured $3.04 billion in June volume, climbing from May’s $1.77 billion.

World Cup Emerges as Primary Growth Engine

The commencement of FIFA World Cup 2026 on June 11 has unquestionably been the dominant force propelling activity across all three prediction market platforms.

Kalshi’s tournament champion prediction market has single-handedly generated more than $832 million in total bets. Approximately 35% of those wagers favor France capturing the championship.

On Polymarket, individual match contracts have consistently attracted between $500,000 and $2 million in volume per game.

With the tournament scheduled to conclude on July 19, elevated trading volumes are expected to persist for multiple additional weeks.

These impressive volume figures emerge as prediction market platforms continue navigating complex regulatory challenges across the United States.

Over a dozen state regulatory bodies have initiated legal proceedings targeting both Kalshi and Polymarket. These jurisdictions claim the platforms provide unauthorized sports wagering or gambling services to their residents.

Both companies, supported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s position, maintain that federal regulatory authority permits them to facilitate sports-related prediction markets without securing individual state licenses.

This regulatory conflict remains unresolved, though it has not dampened trading momentum in the immediate term.

June’s combined performance establishes a new benchmark for monthly platform volume, with significant World Cup action still remaining before tournament completion.

“Historically, sustained transitions from net distribution to net accumulation have often emerged during periods of market weakness, as long-term investors gradually increase their holdings while shorter-term participants de-risk,” Glassnode said in its latest report.

Small wallets lead dip-buying

The signal gets more interesting when looking at the broader accumulation picture with the help of Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score. This indicator measures buying behavior across wallet sizes on a rolling 30-day basis on a scale from 0 to 1, and has shifted meaningfully higher over the past month, suggesting broad-based bargain hunting.

The strongest accumulation is currently showing up among the smallest holders (under 1 BTC), whose trend score appears near maximum at roughly 0.8-0.9, and mid-sized entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which are also reading close to that range. Wallets in the 1-10 BTC and 10-100 BTC cohorts show moderate accumulation at roughly 0.6-0.7, while larger wallets in the 1,000-10,000 BTC range have also turned net buyers, though at a moderate reading of around 0.5-0.6.

What stands out is the largest whale cohort, wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC, which still reads closer to neutral at roughly 0.4-0.5, suggesting the biggest players have yet to commit meaningfully to the accumulation trend.

Still, the synchronized accumulation across most wallet-size cohorts is significant and suggests that BTC at $60,000 is cheap enough to attract new demand from several corners of the market at once.

The company behind the dYdX decentralized exchange (DEX) has partnered with Robinhood to rebrand and launch the protocol as Arcus on the Robinhood Chain.

An X account for Arcus posted on Wednesday that “dYdX is now Arcus” and would launch on the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood’s Arbitrum-based layer 2 blockchain that went live the same day.

The dYdX Foundation said that dYdX Labs created Arcus “in partnership with Robinhood” and that the dYdX blockchain “is not affected by it in any way.” The platform is set to be blockchain’s “leading DEX” and will give users access to perpetual products and fee-free trading of 95 tokenized stocks.

Source: Charles d’Haussy

The DEX is part of Robinhood’s expanded push into tokenized assets and perpetual trading, two areas of crypto that have recently exploded in popularity as US regulators have shown interest in allowing the products to more easily come to market.

Robinhood’s embrace of perpetual trading comes as it looks to entice traders who have flocked to the crypto perpetual futures platform Hyperliquid, whose token has climbed nearly 150% so far this year as it has captured market share.

Arcus to offer tokenized stock, perps trading

“Until now, traders have been shut out of the most valuable markets on earth — US equities, commodities, and indices — because of where they live, market hours, and institutions restricting access,” Arcus said in a blog post. “We built Arcus to reduce these barriers.”

The protocol said that it will offer perpetuals and tokenized stock trading that will go live this month, allowing tokenized stocks to be used as collateral for perpetuals and providing access to pre-IPO markets.

Related: CFTC chair says perp trading not suitable for all assets it regulates

It added that Robinhood Crypto, the company’s crypto technology arm, made an investment in Arcus but did not disclose further details.

The dYdX Foundation said that Arcus “is a distinct, independent product built on separate infrastructure” and that the dYdX blockchain would continue to operate and be owned by its community.

Major retail-focused trading platforms have been moving to expand their offerings to remain competitive. Crypto exchange Coinbase has looked to rival Robinhood and become a full-service trading platform, having added access to thousands of stocks earlier this year.

Robinhood’s blockchain also follows a similar move from Coinbase in 2023, when the latter launched its Ethereum layer-2 blockchain Base that has grown to be the fifth-largest by value locked, according to DeFiLlama.

Meanwhile, Bitget Wallet, the self-custodial wallet from the Bitget crypto exchange, said on Wednesday that it partnered with Robinhood Crypto to integrate the company’s blockchain to allow its users to trade tokenized stocks.

The decentralized exchange 1inch also said on Wednesday that it would be among the first major swap platforms to support Robinhood Chain. 

Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies?

Bitcoin BTC$60,396.90 traded above $60,700 on Thursday after a quick overnight reversal after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased, giving a market that spent most of June grinding lower its first clear lift in weeks.

Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday, Warsh said “inflation risks have come down” while reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to 2%.

He declined to signal what the central bank will do at its meeting later this month, saying policymakers would weigh incoming data first. Bitcoin pared earlier losses and pushed back above $60,000 after the remarks, according to CoinDesk reporting.

Solana led the majors. The token rose about 4% on the day to around $78 and is up roughly 16% over the past week, per CoinDesk data, the only large token with a meaningful weekly gain. Ether traded near $1,630, up about 3% on the day, while XRP held at about $1.06. BNB, dogecoin and Tron were softer over the week.

Forward Industries has expanded its Solana treasury after buying more than 500,000 SOL during fiscal Q3 2026. 

The Nasdaq-listed company said its total holdings reached 7.55 million SOL as of June 30.

The company bought the tokens at an average price of about $79 per SOL. It also said SOL per fully diluted share rose to 0.0729 from 0.0669 at the end of the prior quarter.

Forward Industries stock recently traded at $4.70 on Nasdaq, up more than 10% in the past day, with an intraday high of $5.04 and volume above 3 million shares (per Google Finance data).

Forward Industries said the increase represented 36% annualized SOL-per-share growth. The update comes as the company continues to build its Solana treasury while earlier filings show how crypto price moves have shaped its reported results.

Forward Industries expands Solana holdings

In a July 1 company release, Forward Industries said it sold 93,642 common shares through its At The Market offering during fiscal Q3. The company said it used public market capital in a way that raised SOL per share for existing shareholders.

Binance said its Direct Stocks product crossed $1 billion in U.S. equities acquired within 30 days of launch. 

The product went live on June 1 and gives eligible users access to more than 7,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs in the same app they use for crypto.

The exchange said the product also processed close to $3 billion in trading volume during the same period. The 30-day window included 22 trading days, according to a Binance blog post.

Binance said about 73% of Direct Stocks users came from emerging markets. The company framed the data around demand from regions where brokerage accounts, bank wires, minimum balances, and foreign market access have often limited retail participation.

Binance stock access gains early demand

Direct Stocks lets users buy fractional U.S. stocks and ETFs with stablecoins and selected crypto balances. As previously reported, Binance opened U.S. stock trading access for eligible non-U.S. users in June, offering more than 7,000 equities and ETFs with purchases starting from $5.

The product places equities beside crypto balances in one interface. Binance said the setup removes some steps tied to traditional brokerage access, including separate bank transfers and new account flows. The company said users acquired more than $150 million in U.S. equities per day during the first 30 days.

Emerging markets drive the user base

Binance said emerging markets accounted for most Direct Stocks users. The company also said about one in seven visitors to its stock trading page registered an account, and nearly 90% of those new sign-ups placed a trade.

The data follows earlier Binance Research claims about broader demand for equity access through crypto exchanges. As reported by crypto.news, Binance Research projected that crypto exchanges could bring 300 million new equity investors and $2 trillion in new capital into global stock markets by 2031. The report linked that growth to stablecoins, crypto exchange reach, and users in underbanked regions.

Shunyet Jan, Binance’s Head of Spot and Derivatives Business, said, “A billion dollars in 30 days is a sign of the demand that’s been waiting decades for a door to walk through.” He added that Binance built the product for users who “never had a way in.”

Stock trading uses broker-linked rails

Binance does not custody the securities traded through Direct Stocks. Binance disclosed an Alpaca stake as its stock trading service expanded. Nest Trading acts as introducing broker, while Alpaca handles execution, clearing, settlement, custody, dividends, and corporate actions.

The model gives Binance exposure to traditional equities while keeping securities activity linked to regulated brokerage partners. Users fund stock purchases with stablecoins and supported crypto assets. Binance said the product targets eligible users outside the U.S.

Tokenized equity race widens

The direct stock rollout comes as exchanges add more equity-linked products. Crypto.news reported that Binance launched bStocks, letting eligible users convert supported U.S. stock holdings into tokenized assets that can trade around the clock.

Moreover, other exchanges are also moving into stock access. Bitget launched Stock+, allowing eligible users to buy real U.S. stocks with crypto converted into USDC through regulated brokers.

Binance said technology stocks made up the largest share of Direct Stocks holdings. It said the technology sector accounted for about 71% of holdings, while semiconductor names made up around 48%. The company also projected that Direct Stocks could exceed $10 billion by the end of 2026 if current growth continues, though it said the projection was illustrative and not a guarantee.