Crypto World
Trump’s CLARITY Act push is now about beating China
With three weeks left on the Senate calendar, the President stopped selling crypto’s biggest bill on its merits and started selling it as a race against Beijing. The pitch is a tell, and it reveals exactly which argument Washington has already lost.
Summary
- On July 13, Trump urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act and framed it as a contest with China over both crypto and artificial intelligence, warning that Beijing wants total control of the sector.
- The framing arrived at a moment of maximum weakness for the bill: no floor vote scheduled, roughly three weeks of Senate calendar left, and prediction markets pricing 2026 passage far below where it sat earlier in the year.
- The bull case is that regulatory certainty is a genuine competitiveness asset, and that the CFTC chairman, a 200-company coalition, and the White House all agree the cost of delay is measured in offshore migration.
- The bear case is that the China frame is a lobbying device aimed at Democrats who are blocking the bill over ethics, not over geopolitics, and that Beijing is not competing for the market CLARITY would regulate.
- The frame cannot route around the actual obstacle: the merged draft released July 14 omits any ethics provision, and three Democratic senators immediately declared their opposition.
For most of its life, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has been sold on plumbing. It would decide which American regulator supervises which digital asset, split jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and replace a decade of enforcement-by-lawsuit with written rules. That is a technocratic argument, and it is the argument that carried the bill through the House and out of the Senate Banking Committee. For readers new to the market-structure fight, crypto.news has also explained how the bill splits SEC and CFTC jurisdiction. On July 13, with the bill stalled and the calendar closing, the President changed the pitch. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the Senate should pass the CLARITY Act, warned that China and other countries would like to take complete and total control of this major financial moment as well as artificial intelligence, and closed by telling lawmakers not to let China win on either front. The plumbing argument had not worked. The new one is about national power, and the switch itself is the most informative thing that has happened to this bill in weeks.
The post that reframed the bill
The specifics of the moment matter, because the timing was not accidental. Trump opened the post by invoking Senator Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who died on July 11 at 71 following a sudden illness, and who advocacy groups had counted as a reliable supporter of the industry, including his vote for the stablecoin law CLARITY builds on in 2025. Framing passage as a tribute to a dead colleague is a legislative pressure tactic as old as Congress. Attaching it to a warning about Beijing is newer, and it tells you which audience the White House thinks it still has to move.
The administration amplified the message in unison. Patrick Witt, the White House digital-assets adviser, called the days ahead a critical week and pointed to the one-year anniversary of the GENIUS Act on July 18 as proof of what coordinated action can produce. Federal regulators joined in: CFTC Chairman Mike Selig urged lawmakers to write clear statutory standards, arguing that continued reliance on enforcement actions and statutes drafted before blockchain markets existed threatens American leadership across crypto, artificial intelligence, and financial technology. A coalition of more than 200 companies pressed Senate leadership to bring the bill to the floor. The House Financial Services digital-assets subcommittee scheduled a field hearing at Federal Hall in New York for July 17, titled around the idea that CLARITY enables innovation.
That is a full-court campaign, and campaigns of that intensity are not run from positions of strength. The bill missed the July 4 signing ceremony the White House had informally targeted. It has sat since June 1 at Calendar No. 423 on the Senate Legislative Calendar, eligible for a floor vote nobody has scheduled, with no cloture motion filed. The Senate returned July 13 with roughly three working weeks before the August recess, after which the midterm campaign consumes the political oxygen. The China frame is what a bill sounds like when its sponsors have run out of runway and are reaching for the one argument that has historically moved reluctant senators of both parties.
What Washington is actually selling against
The comparison Trump is drawing deserves scrutiny, because the two systems are not competing to do the same thing. Mainland China has banned the private crypto activities that CLARITY would regulate, including trading and mining. What Beijing has built instead is the e-CNY, a central bank digital currency issued and supervised by the People’s Bank of China, a state-run digital money that gives the central bank direct visibility into transactions. That is not a rival crypto market. It is the philosophical opposite of one.
The American model, as the administration frames it, puts privately issued dollar stablecoins at the center and keeps the state out of retail digital money entirely. This is where the CLARITY Act contains a detail that complicates the China pitch in an interesting way: the House version of the bill carries anti-CBDC provisions, barring Federal Reserve banks from offering certain products directly to individuals and prohibiting the use of a central bank digital currency for monetary policy. In other words, the bill Trump is selling as the answer to China is partly built to prevent America from ever fielding China’s actual product. The competition is not two countries racing to build the same thing faster. It is two countries betting on incompatible architectures, one state-issued and surveilled, one private and regulated.
There is a third model that goes unmentioned in the framing, and its absence is telling. Europe already passed comprehensive crypto market rules under MiCA, which means the honest competitive comparison for the United States is not with Beijing but with Brussels, a jurisdiction that did the boring legislative work first and now has the regulatory certainty American firms say they want. Naming Europe would make the argument about American legislative dysfunction. Naming China makes it about a foreign threat. The second frame is more useful politically, which is precisely why it was chosen.
The case that clarity is a competitiveness asset
Strip away the rhetoric, and there is a serious argument underneath, one that does not depend on Beijing at all. American crypto regulation has been conducted for years primarily through enforcement, with agencies applying securities statutes written in the 1930s and 1940s to assets that did not exist when those laws were drafted. Firms have responded rationally by domiciling offshore, which means the activity continues, the jurisdiction changes, and American regulators lose visibility over the very conduct they wanted to police. Selig’s point stands on its own merits: a country cannot supervise what it has pushed out of its borders.
The competitiveness case has a concrete shape. American leadership in digital finance rests on capital markets, legal certainty, developer talent, banking access, and exchange liquidity. Delayed rules weaken each of those, even while demand for the assets themselves stays strong. A framework that tells firms which regulator governs them, what disclosures they owe, and what registration path exists would let institutional capital participate at a scale that legal ambiguity currently prevents. That argument explains why more than 200 companies signed on and why the industry treats this as its top policy priority, and none of it requires believing that China is about to seize the crypto market.
The geopolitical version of the argument, at its strongest, is about the dollar. The GENIUS Act created a framework for payment stablecoins, the overwhelming majority of which are dollar-denominated, and dollar stablecoins have become an unexpectedly effective instrument of American monetary reach, putting dollar exposure in the hands of people who cannot easily access dollar banking. If digital money is where cross-border payments eventually migrate, then the country whose currency dominates that layer inherits a meaningful advantage. In that reading, the CLARITY Act is not about beating China at crypto. It is about extending the dollar’s incumbency into the next rail, which is a real strategic interest even if the invocation of Beijing is theatrical.
The case that China is a lobbying device
The skeptical reading is simpler: the frame is aimed at a domestic audience, not a foreign adversary, and it is designed to make a stalled negotiation feel like a national emergency. Nothing about China’s posture changed in July. The e-CNY has been in development for years, the trading ban is old news, and no Chinese policy shift prompted the post. What changed was the Senate calendar and the vote count. When the substance of a bill cannot close the deal, urgency becomes the substitute, and few things generate urgency in Washington faster than the suggestion that Beijing is winning.
The framing also collides with an inconvenient fact about the electorate. A survey commissioned by CoinDesk found that just 1 percent of registered voters ranked crypto as a top priority heading into the 2026 election. Senator Elizabeth Warren has made that number a centerpiece of her opposition, arguing the Senate is spending its scarce floor time on legislation written by the crypto industry for the crypto industry while voters are preoccupied with the cost of groceries, utilities, and health care. Whatever one makes of her policy views, the political arithmetic is hard to dispute: there is no constituency pressure driving this bill, which is exactly why its advocates need an external threat to manufacture stakes.
There is a further problem with the competitiveness claim as applied. If the concern is that activity migrates offshore without rules, the natural rejoinder is that America already has a stablecoin law and a functioning, if messy, enforcement regime, while the specific provisions holding CLARITY up are not the ones foreign competitors care about. Nobody in Beijing has a view on whether Coinbase may pass through yield on USDC balances, or on the precise wording of a developer liability shield. Those are domestic fights among American banks, American law enforcement, and American politicians. Wrapping them in a flag does not resolve any of them, and the senators blocking the bill are unlikely to be persuaded that their objections are unpatriotic.
The obstacle the frame cannot route around
Here is where the China pitch runs into the wall it was built to avoid. The reason CLARITY has no floor vote is not insufficient urgency about foreign competition. It is that Democrats have conditioned their support on an ethics provision restricting government officials from profiting from the industry they regulate, and the President is the reason such a provision exists. Trump’s most recent financial disclosure showed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto-related income, with about $636 million from the memecoin bearing his name and more than $500 million tied to World Liberty Financial, the DeFi venture his family co-founded. Crypto was his single largest income stream in the preceding year.
The merged Senate Banking and Agriculture draft, released on July 14, omits any ethics provision. Senators Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen, and Jeff Merkley responded with a press conference declaring their opposition, with Murphy arguing that there is no point building a new regulatory system for crypto if it fails to stop what he characterizes as the President’s corruption. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has pushed to make it illegal for presidents to issue or sponsor digital assets, citing the memecoin figure directly. Warren has demanded hearings on the national-security implications of the President’s holdings before any floor vote. The White House position, articulated by Witt, is that it will accept ethics language applying across the board, from the president to the intern, but nothing aimed specifically at the President’s holdings. A proposal to let state attorneys general enforce the rules was rejected as structurally insufficient.
This is the structural bind, and it is worth stating plainly because the China frame is designed to obscure it. Democrats argue it is incoherent to build a federal framework classifying digital assets while the sitting President earns his largest income from those assets with no enforceable restriction. The White House argues it will not accept a bill that singles out the President. Both positions are internally consistent, and together they are irreconcilable without someone conceding. A Truth Social post about Beijing does not move that stalemate one inch, and the two committee Democrats who voted the bill out of Banking, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, have both warned their committee votes do not extend to the floor absent a deal.
The math
The vote count is where sentiment meets arithmetic, and the arithmetic is unforgiving. The bill needs 60 votes for cloture in the Senate, which requires a significant bloc of Democrats. It cleared Senate Banking 15-9, with only Gallego and Alsobrooks crossing over, and both have since qualified their support. The House passed its version 294-134 in July 2025 with dozens of Democrats, which is the precedent supporters cite, and the GENIUS Act cleared the Senate 68-30 the same year, which is the precedent they cite more often. But the Republican margin has narrowed. Graham’s death and Mitch McConnell’s continued absence leave the conference with almost no room for error.
The calendar compounds the problem. The House leaves for recess on July 23, the Senate on August 7, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants a floor vote before the work period ends. Advocates hoped the bill could reach the floor the week of July 20, but the procedural sequence, filing cloture, burning floor time for debate, reconciling with the House version, consumes days the bill does not have. And CLARITY is competing for that floor time against the National Defense Authorization Act, a farm bill, a housing bill, and a war-powers debate. Every hour spent elsewhere reduces the odds. Even if the Senate passes something, the House would need to approve the Senate’s version before it reached the President’s desk.
The market has noticed. Traders on Polymarket priced 2026 passage in the mid-20s to upper-30s percent range in mid-July, down from above 70 percent earlier in the year, showing how traders are pricing the bill’s odds. Galaxy Digital’s head of research cut his firm’s odds to roughly 50 percent, citing the shrinking calendar and competition for floor time. Optimists remain: the Solana Policy Institute’s president has said momentum is building and a pre-recess vote is achievable, and CFTC leadership has called the bill close. The fallback everyone whispers about is the lame-duck session after the November elections, a crowded and unpredictable window that has buried better-positioned bills than this one.
Whether the frame lands
So does the China argument work? On the merits, it is the weakest version of a strong case. The genuine argument for CLARITY is domestic and unglamorous: regulation by enforcement is a bad way to run a market, offshore migration costs American oversight, and firms deserve to know which agency governs them. That case does not need Beijing, and dressing it in geopolitics arguably cheapens it, because it invites the obvious rebuttal that China banned the thing America is trying to regulate and therefore is not racing anyone.
On the politics, the calculation is more defensible than it first appears. The frame is not aimed at Murphy or Warren, who were never going to be moved by it. It is aimed at the marginal Democrat who wants a reason to vote yes that is not about crypto, and for whom competitiveness with China offers cover that industry lobbying cannot. That is a real, if narrow, use. The problem is that the marginal Democrat’s stated price is an ethics provision, and the merged draft did not pay it. No amount of framing substitutes for the thing the votes are actually for sale for.
The most honest read is that the China pitch is a symptom rather than a strategy. It tells you the White House has exhausted the arguments it prefers and is now reaching for the one that generates urgency without requiring concession. Whether crypto gets its rulebook this year will be settled by whether someone blinks on ethics in the next three weeks, not by whether senators fear Beijing. If the bill dies, the industry will spend the fall arguing that America ceded ground to foreign competitors. The more accurate autopsy will be that the most consequential crypto bill in American history failed over a fight about one man’s memecoin income, and that no external adversary was required to stop it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the CLARITY Act?
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would create a federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It would grant the CFTC authority over digital commodity spot markets while the SEC retains jurisdiction over investment contract assets, and it builds on the stablecoin framework created by the GENIUS Act in 2025.
What did Trump actually say about China?
In a July 13 Truth Social post, he urged the Senate to pass the bill in honor of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, warned that China and other countries want total control of the digital asset sector as well as artificial intelligence, claimed America currently leads while China competes hard, and closed by telling lawmakers not to let China win on either front.
Is China really competing with the United States on crypto?
Not in the market CLARITY would regulate. Mainland China has banned private crypto trading and mining, and has instead built the e-CNY, a state-issued central bank digital currency supervised by the People’s Bank of China. The two systems are architecturally opposed. The CLARITY Act itself contains anti-CBDC provisions, meaning the bill partly exists to prevent America from building China’s actual product.
Why is the bill stalled?
Primarily over ethics. Democrats have conditioned support on provisions restricting officials from profiting from the crypto industry, prompted by Trump’s disclosure of roughly $1.4 billion in crypto income. The merged draft released July 14 omitted any ethics language, and Senators Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley immediately announced opposition. Disputes over a DeFi developer shield and stablecoin yield also remain unresolved
How many votes does it need
Sixty, to clear cloture in the Senate, which requires meaningful Democratic support. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 with only two Democrats crossing over, and both have said their committee votes do not guarantee floor support. Graham’s death and McConnell’s absence have narrowed the Republican margin, making Democratic buy-in more decisive than at any earlier point.
What is the deadline?
The Senate leaves for its August recess on August 7, and the House on July 23, after which the midterm campaign dominates. Advocates view the remaining weeks as the bill’s last realistic chance in 2026. A lame-duck session after the November elections is the theoretical fallback, but that window is crowded and unpredictable.
What do prediction markets say about passage
Traders have grown sharply more pessimistic. Polymarket priced 2026 passage in roughly the mid-20s to upper-30s percent range in mid-July, down from above 70 percent earlier in the year. Galaxy Digital’s research head cut his estimate to about 50 percent, citing calendar pressure. Those figures move quickly and should be checked against current markets.
What happens to crypto if the bill fails?
The status quo persists: regulation through enforcement, unresolved SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, and continued legal ambiguity that firms cite when domiciling offshore. That does not halt the industry, since demand is unaffected by legislative failure, but it delays institutional participation that depends on legal certainty and pushes the next serious attempt into a new Congress with a potentially different composition.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. It describes pending legislation and the political debate surrounding it, and legislative outcomes are inherently uncertain. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of July 16, 2026, and this situation is developing quickly.
Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the Truth Social platform, says it is preparing a new paid API aimed at institutional investors and trading firms. The service is designed to deliver low-latency access to posts from Truth Social’s most influential accounts, including U.S. President Donald Trump.
According to a filing made with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, TMTG expects the “Truth API” to be available to institutional customers starting Aug. 1, 2026. The company framed the product as a machine-readable, real-time feed suitable for high-frequency and algorithmic trading strategies.
Key takeaways
- TMTG plans a paid “Truth API” to provide licensed, real-time access to posts from select Truth Social accounts.
- The API is targeted at institutional customers and is positioned for low-latency use cases such as algorithmic and high-frequency trading.
- Availability is expected from Aug. 1, 2026, according to TMTG’s SEC filing.
- TMTG says the new offering is intended to reduce scraping and push data access through authorized channels.
A licensed feed for market-facing automation
TMTG’s announcement centers on an API that packages Truth Social content into a format traders and data systems can ingest quickly. The company stated that the goal is to provide “the fastest” access to posts from Truth Social’s most market-moving accounts, including Donald Trump, through a licensed channel.
In the SEC filing referenced in the report, TMTG described the API as a direct feed built for environments where timing and machine readability matter—particularly for algorithmic and high-frequency trading firms. For investors and market participants, the implication is straightforward: instead of manually monitoring posts or relying on third-party workarounds, institutions could potentially integrate Truth Social updates directly into their data and execution pipelines.
Kevin McGurn, TMTG’s interim CEO, linked the product to both market relevance and monetization. In a statement tied to the announcement, he argued that “markets already move on Truth Social posts,” and positioned the Truth API as a way to monetize what the company calls proprietary assets through a recurring revenue stream.
Why Truth Social posts are being packaged as a tradable data stream
TMTG points to the platform’s track record of influencing market attention, noting that posts attributed to Trump’s account have been cited as market-moving. The report’s examples include comments connected to the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict, underscoring the company’s view that Truth Social can function as a real-time communications channel with immediate downstream effects.
The announcement also highlights that Truth Social includes several prominent accounts beyond the president. The report names Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, and FBI Director Kash Patel among other major figures on the platform. While the precise mechanics of which accounts will be included—and how frequently data updates will arrive—are not detailed in the excerpt, the company’s emphasis on “influential” accounts indicates a curated list rather than a universal firehose.
For institutional users, such curation could matter as much as latency. Many trading and analytics setups prefer structured, predictable feeds that target specific signal sources, reducing the overhead of filtering large volumes of content.
TMTG targets scraping—and shifts data access to “direct” licensing
A core theme of the announcement is enforcing terms around how Truth Social data is obtained. McGurn’s statement, as reported, contrasts the Truth API with what he described as past attempts to scrape content. He said that scraping data from Truth Social violates the platform’s terms of service.
In a quote attributed to CNN, McGurn added that the company intends to “create a lot of friction” for those who do not come to TMTG directly. That line signals that the Truth API is not only about adding a new revenue stream; it is also about changing behavior in the broader market data ecosystem.
Historically, major social platforms often face the same recurring challenge: third-party aggregators scrape content or republish it without licensing. By offering a paid, low-latency alternative, TMTG is effectively betting that many institutional workflows can be shifted away from gray-market access and toward formal licensing.
What investors should watch next
Even with the Aug. 1, 2026 target date, important questions remain for anyone tracking the Truth API’s rollout—particularly which specific accounts will be included, how the data will be structured for machine reading, and what latency and availability guarantees will look like in practice. Traders and data buyers will likely want clarity on the licensing scope and the operational details that determine whether the feed can truly fit into automated decision systems.
Citadel Securities has invested $400 million in Crypto.com, valuing the digital asset platform at $20 billion in its first institutional funding round.
Summary
- Citadel Securities invests $400 million in Crypto.com, valuing the crypto exchange at $20 billion globally.
- The deal marks Crypto.com’s first institutional funding round in its decade-long operating history to date.
- Crypto.com plans to use funding to expand tokenized securities, derivatives, and other financial asset classes.
The deal brings together a leading U.S. market maker and one of the world’s best-known crypto exchanges. Crypto.com announced the investment on July 16.
The company said it plans to use the capital to expand across more asset classes. In particular, Crypto.com named tokenized securities and derivatives among its priorities as it builds services that connect traditional markets with digital asset infrastructure.
Citadel Securities makes $400 million Crypto.com investment
The strategic investment gives Crypto.com a $20 billion valuation. It also marks the first time the company has raised institutional funding since its founding in 2016. However, the companies did not disclose the size of the stake Citadel Securities received or other terms of the transaction.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek said the company expects digital assets to play a larger role in financial markets. He said “crypto increasingly becomes the rails for finance.”
According to the company, its existing regulatory and technology systems will support its planned expansion into additional financial products.
Funding targets tokenized securities and derivatives
Crypto.com said the funding will accelerate its move into tokenized securities, derivatives, and other asset classes. The exchange aims to build a broader financial platform that operates around the clock while offering products linked to both traditional and digital markets.
Meanwhile, institutional investment in tokenization has continued to grow. As crypto.news previously reported, Digital Asset Holdings raised $355 million in June in a round backed by Citadel Securities and other institutions. The company behind Canton Network focuses on blockchain infrastructure for tokenized assets and regulated finance.
Citadel expands its links to digital asset infrastructure
Citadel Securities already has links to several digital asset projects. The company describes itself as the No. 1 U.S. retail market maker and says it handles about 35% of U.S.-listed retail trading volume. Its direct investment in Crypto.com adds another connection to the growing market for digital asset infrastructure.
Moreover, affiliates of Citadel Securities participated in Ripple’s $500 million strategic funding round in November 2025. That transaction valued Ripple at $40 billion as the company expanded its businesses across custody, stablecoins, and prime brokerage.
Crypto.com prepares for broader financial market expansion
Citadel Securities President Jim Esposito said the combination of traditional markets and digital asset infrastructure could improve market efficiency. He added that Crypto.com had built a platform capable of supporting greater institutional participation in digital assets.
At the same time, Crypto.com has widened its focus beyond cryptocurrency trading. The company has identified prediction markets and tokenized real-world assets as areas for further development. The new capital gives it more funding to pursue that strategy as exchanges and financial companies compete to offer more products around the clock.
The deal also comes as tokenized assets attract greater attention from Wall Street. As crypto.news reported, firms including BlackRock, JPMorgan, Nasdaq, and Citadel Securities have been building infrastructure for tokenized finance. Against that backdrop, Crypto.com’s first institutional funding round supports its effort to expand beyond its core crypto exchange business.
Bitcoin and Asian stocks fell Friday after fresh U.S. airstrikes on Iran raised geopolitical uncertainty. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s allegations that China tampered with the 2020 election hurt risk sentiment, sending the Australian dollar lower.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, slipped to $63,600, extending Thursday’s nearly 1.4% slide from $65,000, according to CoinDesk data. As of this writing, the cryptocurrency traded just below its 50-day simple moving average, the widely-tracked gauge of near-term momentum.
Asian equity markets wilted, with Japan’s Nikkei trading nearly 3% lower at its lowest in over a month. Australia’s ASX 200 slipped by 0.5% alongside a 0.8% drop in futures tied to Nasdaq. Wall Street’s tech-heavy index fell by over 1.6% on Thursday.
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency quoted Hormozgan Province Governorate, saying that U.S. airstrikes have hit five bridges in the southern Hormozgan province. A missile strike also hit Iran’s Chabahar maritime control tower. Surprisingly, WTI oil futures held steady at around $79 per barrel, ignoring the geopolitical stress from the fresh wave of U.S. attacks on Iran.
Venezuela’s USDT market is handling volumes that now rival one of the country’s largest sources of foreign currency.
Summary
- Venezuela’s Binance P2P market handled 1.389 billion USDT between June 11 and July 13 alone.
- Ecoanalítica estimated the volume equaled 75% of Venezuela’s monthly oil export value during the period.
- USDT traded near 840 bolivars, around 15.5% above Venezuela’s official exchange rate in mid-July 2026.
Ecoanalítica estimated that 1.389 billion USDT changed hands on Binance’s peer-to-peer market between June 11 and July 13, equal to about 44 million USDT per day.
The research firm estimated that the volume represented about 75% of Venezuela’s monthly oil export value. However, a separate calculation using June crude exports and the average price of Merey crude places the ratio closer to 52%, showing that the comparison depends on the method and reference period used.
Binance P2P becomes a major foreign-currency channel
Ecoanalítica developed a method to estimate the size of Binance’s P2P market in Venezuela. According to the firm, the results show how the platform has moved from a small alternative market into a major channel for buying and selling dollar-linked value outside the traditional banking system.
The 1.389 billion USDT volume also equaled about 64.2% of the $2.163 billion in foreign currency supplied by the Central Bank of Venezuela during June, based on figures cited by CriptoNoticias.
The central bank increased its supply by 36% from May as it sought to reduce pressure on the bolivar. Ecoanalítica placed the comparison at 88%, although it did not publish enough detail to verify the difference.
USDT trades at a premium to Venezuela’s official dollar rate
Meanwhile, USDT traded around 840 bolivars on local P2P markets, about 15.5% above the official exchange rate of 727 bolivars per U.S. dollar on July 16. The spread remained narrower than earlier in 2026, when the difference between official and alternative rates stood near 30%.
Ecoanalítica director Alejandro Grisanti said Binance had gone “from being a marginal market to becoming one of the main channels for buying and selling foreign currency.” He also said P2P activity could slow if formal banks regain more capacity to supply foreign currency. As a result, users could shift some transactions back to traditional financial platforms.
Oil figures leave the 75% estimate open to question
Venezuela exported about 1.2 million barrels of crude per day in June, while the average price of Merey crude fell to $71.13 per barrel from $82.77 in May. Using those figures, monthly crude export value would stand near $2.56 billion, putting the reported USDT volume at roughly 52% rather than 75%.
The difference may reflect another export price, reference period, or method used by Ecoanalítica. However, Grisanti did not provide the full calculation behind the 75% figure. Therefore, the oil comparison remains an estimate, while the reported Binance P2P volume stands at 1.389 billion USDT for the period.
Stablecoins remain tied to Venezuela’s oil and dollar market
The latest figures add to a longer shift toward stablecoins in Venezuela. As crypto.news previously reported, state oil company PDVSA had been gradually moving some crude and fuel sales toward USDT as U.S. sanctions made conventional payment channels harder to use. That development connected the country’s oil trade with the same dollar-linked token now widely traded in its domestic P2P market.
More recently, as crypto.news reported in April, Tether said it had frozen more than $344 million in USDT linked to sanctions evasion and criminal networks in cooperation with U.S. authorities. The report also noted earlier concerns about PDVSA’s use of USDT. The latest P2P estimates now place stablecoin trading at a scale comparable with major official and export-related foreign-currency flows.
Crypto World
India’s biggest IPO this year rakes in bids worth $31 billion, powered by institutional frenzy
Signage for SBI Funds Management Ltd. at a news conference in Mumbai, India, on Thursday, July 9, 2026.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
India’s biggest public market offering this year, SBI Fund Management, has garnered bids worth 2.97 trillion rupees ($30.7 billion), underscoring the liquidity available in the market ahead of the much larger issues anticipated in 2026.
SBI Fund Management, which is a joint venture between State Bank of India and Europe’s Amundi Group, was in the market to raise 97.9 billion rupees ($1 billion). Its initial public offering was oversubscribed 41.6 times, owing to an enthusiastic response from institutional investors.
The portion reserved for qualified institutional buyers was subscribed 140 times, with most of the bids coming from domestic institutional investors such as banks and insurance companies. Participation by retail investors was relatively muted, with subscriptions at 3.6 times the offer that closed on Thursday.
Institutional interest is good news for public issues of India’s largest stock bourse, the National Stock Exchange, and the country’s biggest wireless telecommunications company, Jio Platforms, expected to hit the market later this year.
Both companies are estimated to raise more than $3 billion each, according to Mumbai-based IPO intelligence firm Prime Database.
India has been the most prolific IPO market in the world over the last two years, with the highest number listings, but activity was subdued here during the first half of the year.
Rising energy prices due to the Iran war have squeezed the Indian economy, taking the sheen off its domestic consumption story. That has coincided with a global investment rally in AI stocks, an industry where India has no champions.
As a result, since the start of the year, the Indian benchmark Sensex has lost over 9.4% and has been among the worst-performing large stock markets. The broader Nifty 50 is down 7.9% so far this year. In June, after a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., the Indian market recovered partially, and companies started announcing fundraising plans.
Stock market offerings worth $50 billion could flood the Indian markets this year, though the continuation of the Iran war remains a key risk.
Investors will be keeping a close watch on the listing of SBI Fund Management next week, as strong post IPO gains would increase appetite for new issues. SBI Funds is India’s largest asset management company and, as of March 2026, it had 29.5 trillion rupees ($395 billion) under management.
It was October 2025 when the primary cryptocurrency shot to an all-time high above $126,000. In the months that followed, however, the euphoria faded, and the bears took control. The situation only worsened at the start of the summer, when BTC dropped well below $60K, while in the past few days buyers stepped in and recovered the price to the current $64,000.
There’s a heated debate on X over whether the asset has reached its cycle bottom and is poised for a major bull run, or if the worst is yet to come. On that note, we decided to ask three of the most popular AI-powered chatbots what is more likely to happen this year: a collapse to $30,000 or a pump to $100,000.
ChatGPT’s Take
OpenAI’s platform estimated that a rise to the $100K milestone sometime in 2026 is the more likely scenario, given current price levels and the recent stabilization driven by better-than-expected US CPI data.
Recall that inflation in America dropped to 3.5%, triggering an evident upswing across the entire crypto sector. Such a reaction makes sense, since the lower figure eases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates and even raises the prospect of cuts in the months ahead – a development that typically favors riskier assets.
At the same time, ChatGPT stated that an explosion to $100,000 will not be easy, since Bitcoin remains highly dependent on geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, and institutional interest. Data show that spot BTC ETFs have been bleeding heavily over the past several months, indicating that conservative investors such as pension funds and hedge funds have reduced their exposure to the asset. In the past, institutional appetite has been crucial for Bitcoin’s performance and often aligned with its rallies.
The chatbot claimed that a plunge to $30,000 later this year is not entirely out of the question, though it is much less likely and would require a black swan event such as the potential meltdown of a crypto giant or a global recession.
In conclusion, it estimated roughly a 45% chance that BTC will climb toward $100,000 before New Year’s Eve, a 15% probability of a crash to $30,000, and a 40% likelihood that neither scenario will unfold.
“My most realistic year-end range would be approximately $70,000–$90,000, with $100,000 becoming realistic if BTC reclaims $75,000–$80,000 and ETF demand strengthens,” it added.
More in Favor
Perplexity shared ChatGPT’s theory, but said neither outcome is the most possible scenario for the remaining months of the year. It stated that the maximum “reasonable” price BTC can reach in 2026 is around $70,000-$80,000. For its part, Google’s Gemini said a jump to $100K is “mathematically and structurally” more likely than a collapse to $30K.
“For Bitcoin to fall to $30,000, it would have to trade roughly 30% below the collective cost basis of almost every investor in the market. This has only happened during brief, systemic black swan events (such as the March 2020 COVID crash),” it explained.
The post Crash to $30K or Jump to $100K: 3 AIs Speculate What Is More Likely for BTC in 2026 appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank as much as 4.4% on Friday, July 17, leading a broad Asian tech selloff. Investors dumped chip stocks tied to the artificial intelligence boom. The index fell to 63,896.48, extending losses from earlier in the week.
Chip-equipment maker Advantest and tech investor SoftBank each lost around nine percent. Taiwan’s Taiex shed four percent as TSMC retreated more than three percent, even after posting record quarterly profit. However, the big story for Japanese stocks is Kioxia
Kioxia’s Reversal
Kioxia, the memory chipmaker plunged near 16% on Friday alone. That extends a slide that has erased 44% of its value in a single month.
A rally of more than 600% since January pushed Kioxia briefly past Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company in mid-June. It has since dropped to fourth place. The slide has wiped out roughly ¥30 trillion, or $185 billion, in market value.
Daiwa Securities chief strategist Yugo Tsuboi said the chip sector remains prone to boom-bust cycles.
“The chip sector is vulnerable to the silicon cycle, and we’ve seen this pattern many times before.”
Tsuboi pointed to rising scrutiny of Chinese memory chipmakers as one factor. He also noted signs that global memory prices may be stabilizing, which makes further earnings upgrades harder to justify.
Cracks Beneath the Rally
Other factors are adding to the pressure that Kioxia has faced in the relative short term. Last week, Bain Capital exited its entire position in the memory chipmaker. Many investors saw that as a signal that the chip cycle is peaking. Japanese retail traders also hold heavy leveraged positions, which leaves the stock exposed if selling accelerates.
Kioxia only listed in 2024. Since then, its shares became the best performer on the MSCI World Index before this month’s reversal.
Despite the collapse, analysts still forecast roughly a 118% return for Kioxia over the next 12 months. The Topix index’s October reshuffle should also draw fresh passive fund inflows into the stock.
A Warning for the Wider AI Trade
Kioxia’s reversal mirrors a broader repricing across the sector. A Wall Street gauge of chip stocks slumped more than four percent Thursday and concerns over TSMC’s AI spending overshadowed an otherwise solid earnings outlook.
Traders have grown more skeptical of the AI trade in recent months. They are rotating out of richly valued chip names and into sectors that have lagged. The episode follows a similar pattern to Japan’s broader AI selloff earlier this month.
The Nikkei has shed trillions of yen in value over three weeks.
The post As Nikkei Bleeds, Kioxia’s Boom-to-Bust Highlights Dangers of This AI Cycle appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the Truth Social platform, says it is preparing to launch a paid API that will let institutional Wall Street users pull posts from selected high-impact Truth Social accounts in real time.
In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, TMTG states the “Truth API” is expected to be available to institutional customers starting Aug. 1, 2026. The service is designed for low-latency, machine-readable access—useful for high-frequency and algorithmic trading firms that want faster integration than manual browsing or slower data collection methods.
Key takeaways
- Trump Media is launching a paid Truth Social API aimed at institutional customers and market data workflows.
- Availability is targeted for Aug. 1, 2026, with a focus on real-time, licensed content from influential accounts.
- The API is intended for algorithmic and high-frequency trading that prioritizes low latency and machine readability.
- TMTG says scraping prior approaches violate its terms and that the company wants to increase friction for non-direct data collection.
- Truth Social posts have previously been cited as market-moving, including posts connected to U.S.–Iran developments.
A licensed, real-time feed for institutions
According to TMTG’s SEC filing, the Truth API is positioned as a direct, licensed channel for retrieving posts from Truth Social’s most “market-moving” accounts. The company is explicitly pitching the product to professional trading and market data users that need data in a format that systems can ingest quickly.
The filing emphasizes that the API is meant to deliver a real-time feed, tailored for scenarios where timing matters—especially for automated strategies. That framing matters to investors and market participants because it acknowledges a practical reality: social-media headlines and posts can influence how quickly traders react, and the gap between posting and data availability can affect execution.
Low latency and “friction” for scraping
In comments tied to the rollout, TMTG’s interim CEO Kevin McGurn said that Truth API provides a direct licensed stream of the platform’s “most market-moving Truths,” while also supporting the company’s goal of monetizing proprietary assets through recurring revenue.
The company also drew a line around how data should be obtained. In the filing, McGurn says companies have previously attempted to scrape Truth Social data, which he characterizes as a violation of the platform’s terms of service. He adds that Truth API is expected to “create a lot of friction” for those who do not come to the company directly.
For market participants, this shift is significant. Scraping-based approaches typically come with reliability and compliance risks—such as sudden changes in access patterns, blocking, or disputes over licensing. A formal API, by contrast, signals a more structured data pipeline that may be easier to incorporate into regulated or vendor-driven workflows.
Which accounts are in scope
TMTG’s announcement highlights that the API is intended to deliver posts from influential accounts, including Donald Trump (as President and as the operator of the Truth Social account named in the filing). The SEC documentation also references other major figures on the platform, including Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, and FBI Director Kash Patel.
Separately, the company points to prior instances where posts from Trump’s Truth Social account were associated with market attention. The article notes examples tied to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the U.S.—a reminder that Truth Social content is being watched not only as political commentary, but as a potential driver of market narratives.
Even with the API’s focus on “market-moving” accounts, investors should consider a key uncertainty: the SEC filing and the accompanying description do not spell out—within the provided text—exactly how “market-moving” is determined, how frequently the account set could change, or what latency benchmarks will be provided to customers.
Why an API matters for trading workflows
Social-media data has long been used in trading, but the quality of that data pipeline—particularly speed, structure, and licensing—often determines whether it can be reliably used for automation. By targeting low-latency delivery to institutional users, TMTG is effectively positioning Truth Social as a more integration-ready source of information for quantitative systems.
Just as importantly, the company’s approach frames the business model: rather than relying on incidental discovery or indirect data access, TMTG is attempting to convert platform influence into a recurring, licensed data service. The “high-margin, recurring revenue stream” language in McGurn’s statement suggests the API is intended to become a durable line of monetization, not a one-off product experiment.
As Aug. 1, 2026 approaches, market observers will likely watch for more operational details—especially how the API will handle access controls, content eligibility, and real-time performance expectations for institutional customers. Those specifics will determine whether Truth API becomes a practical component of algorithmic strategies or remains largely a compliance-first licensing alternative.
Netflix (NFLX) forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion, short of Wall Street’s $13 billion estimate. Shares sank nearly 9% in after-hours trading Thursday, July 16.
The guidance overshadowed second-quarter results that beat earnings estimates but fell just short on revenue. Investors are weighing slowing subscriber growth against a maturing streaming business heading into the back half of 2026.
Shares Slide Toward a Two-Year Low
Netflix shares closed Thursday’s regular session at $74.35, up 0.91%. The stock then fell 8.98% to $67.78 in after-hours trading once the guidance landed, per TradingView data.
The stock is down more than 21% year-to-date has fallen 41% over the past twelve months. It sits far from its all time high of around $133 set in June 2025.
The drop lands during a stretch of bank earnings season that has already tested investor patience. Fed Chair testimony on rates added to the volatility this week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have swung on similar earnings-driven volatility this cycle.
Analysts See a Maturing Growth Story
PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore described the outlook as “a naturally maturing growth profile.” He said this does not signal deterioration in the business, but added that Netflix now has less room for error given persistently high expectations.
Netflix also said it would cut its viewing-hours report to once a year, starting in January 2027. The company wants to keep the focus on revenue and operating profit.
The company reiterated plans to roughly double annual advertising revenue to $3 billion. Engagement also grew 2% in the first half of 2026.
Netflix reports third-quarter results on October 20. Investors will watch whether the advertising and live-events push can offset slowing subscriber gains.
The post Netflix Stock Sinks After Third-Quarter Revenue Guidance Misses Estimates appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Trump Media, the company that operates the Truth Social network, said Thursday it was launching a new paid-for API that gives Wall Street firms “the fastest” access to posts from the most influential Truth Social accounts, including US President Donald Trump.
The API is targeted to be available to institutional customers from Aug. 1, 2026, and is aimed at high-frequency and algorithmic trading firms that require a low-latency, machine-readable feed, said the company on Thursday.
“Markets already move on Truth Social posts,” said Kevin McGurn, interim CEO of TMTG in a statement. “Truth API delivers a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths while advancing our strategy to monetize proprietary assets through a high-margin, recurring revenue stream.”
Posts from Trump’s Truth Social account have moved markets, with the most recent examples being his posts relating to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US. Other major accounts on Truth Social include Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump and FBI Director Kash Patel.
“Companies have previously tried to scrape data from Truth Social, which is in violation of its terms of service,” McGurn said, according to CNN.
“We’re going to create a lot of friction for those folks that aren’t coming to us directly,” he added.
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