Inflation returns to the center of attention this week, with a fresh inflow of data likely to shape expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin BTC$68,962.67.

Thursday’s U.S. core PCE reading for February and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. Earlier this year, rate cuts looked almost certain. That has shifted. On Polymarket, odds of no rate cuts in 2026 climbed from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has been “pricing in a (U.S.) recession already” and has acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” falling below signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.

Recent data complicates that view. The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside in March, suggesting the U.S. economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in past cycles.

Following the release, market-based recession odds for this year dropped from around 37% to 28%.

As bitcoin has priced in a storm, Dragosch noted that the risk-reward ratio for bitcoin “is significantly skewed to the upside.” Still, an unexpected escalation in the war in the Middle East could bring about the priced-in storm.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • April 6, 12 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) to host a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.
  • April 8: Stellar’s Yardstick protocol stable release to become available.
  • April 9: Aerodrome’s Flight School to conclude and merge with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.
  • April 9: Binance to migrate all DAI functionality to USDS.
• Macro
  • April 6, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March est. 55 (Prev. 56.1)
  • April 7, 07:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly (est. 10K)
  • April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for February est 04% (Prev. 0%)
  • April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee to participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
  • April 8, 4:00 a.m.: Euro Area PPI YoY for February est. -1.9% (Prev. -2.1%); MoM est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • April 8, 1:00 p.m.: FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting release.
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Core PCE Price Index MoM for February est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%);
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Personal Income MoM for February est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%); Personal Spending MoM est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (final) est. 0.7% (Prev. 4.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending April 4 est. 200K (Prev. 202K)
  • April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China CPI YoY for March est. 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%) ;MoM (Prev. 1%)
  • April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China PPi YoY for March est. 0.4% (Prev. -0.9%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Unemployment Rate for March (Prev. 6.7%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI MoM for March est. 0.9% (Prev. 0.3%); Core CPI MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI YoY for March est. 3.4% (Prev. 2.4%); Core CPI YoY est. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary April) est. 52.5 (Prev. 53.3)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • April 7: Kamino and xStocks to host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
  • Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds, and modify interest-rate models across its V2 markets to support their continued deprecation. Voting ends April 6.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has support from voters. Voting ends April 6.
  • Balancer DAO is voting across two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, routing all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends April 7.
  • CoW DAO is voting 85 to fix its solver rewards budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends April 7.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to cut DFC compensation, saving ~$24k/year in FOX. It clarifies roles and mandates annual renewals. Voting ends April 8.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting across two proposals to amend its Audit Program with a flexible alignment framework and an AI-security scan pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and idle stablecoins to the Treasury Management Portfolio for yield generation. Voting ends April 9.
• Unlocks
  • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
  • April 8: Stable (STABLE) to unlock 4.14% of its circulating value worth $23.97 million.
  • April 9: Aptos APT$0.8520 to unlock 0.68% of its circulating supply worth $9.56 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event to occur.

Conferences

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin declined roughly 1.5% over the past week while the S&P 500 plummeted approximately 10% in just two days
• Charles Schwab announces plans to offer direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading by H1 2026
• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin may drop under $60,000 before climbing to $250,000
• A technical analyst projects potential Bitcoin collapse to $12,000–$13,000 range by mid-2027
• Historical data reveals Bitcoin typically outperforms both gold and S&P 500 within 60 days following major crises

Bitcoin experienced significantly less volatility than traditional equities this past week. As the S&P 500 tumbled approximately 10% over a two-day period, Bitcoin’s decline stayed modest at around 1.5%. This divergence has prompted some market participants to reassess cryptocurrency’s role in their portfolios.

The equity selloff was triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcements, which sent shockwaves through international financial markets. Throughout the turbulence, Bitcoin maintained support above the $66,000 level, later climbing back toward $67,300 even as stock indices continued their descent.

Charles Schwab, overseeing approximately $12 trillion in client assets, revealed plans to introduce direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The forthcoming “Schwab Crypto” account is slated to debut during the first six months of 2026.

This offering differs fundamentally from exchange-traded fund products. Users will gain the ability to manage cryptocurrency holdings alongside their traditional stock and bond portfolios within a single unified account.

Robinhood’s CEO Vlad Tenev also captured attention this week by describing market closing times as “a legacy design choice” and suggesting that tokenization could transform markets to function more similarly to internet infrastructure.

Hayes Advises Caution Until Fed Action

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and serves as Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, expressed a cautious stance on current market conditions. During an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, he stated he wouldn’t allocate his final investment dollar to Bitcoin at present.

His rationale centers on the Federal Reserve’s current liquidity stance. Hayes contends that tariff policies will ultimately generate sufficient voter backlash to force the United States toward implementing capital controls as an alternative approach.

Such capital controls, according to his analysis, would serve as a significant driver for Bitcoin adoption. He maintains ambitious long-term price projections ranging from $250,000 to $750,000 for Bitcoin before this market cycle concludes.

However, he cautioned that an extended military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran might temporarily drive Bitcoin beneath the $60,000 threshold. Hayes additionally identified artificial intelligence-driven workforce displacement as another risk factor that could trigger a deflationary credit contraction.

Historical Performance Analysis

Analysis conducted by Mercado Bitcoin examined the 60-day aftermath of significant global disruptions, encompassing previous tariff wars and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Their findings indicate Bitcoin repeatedly delivered superior returns compared to both gold and the S&P 500 during these recovery windows.

Bitcoin typically experiences initial selling pressure during crisis events as market participants shift toward cash positions. Yet historical patterns demonstrate it has recovered more rapidly and aggressively than conventional asset classes.

Not all market observers anticipate an imminent price floor. A technical analyst operating under the pseudonym King of the Charts anticipates Bitcoin establishing a bottom between $51,000 and $53,000, followed by an 80% to 90% correction down to approximately $12,000 by the middle of 2027.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained anchored in “Extreme Fear” territory for multiple weeks, with measurements approaching single-digit levels.

In a separate conversation with David Lin, Hayes emphasized that straightforward Bitcoin acquisition represents the optimal strategy for protecting against fiat currency devaluation, particularly given the increasing complexity of equity selection.

The Schwab cryptocurrency platform remains on schedule for its first-half 2026 launch.

Tech giant Apple removed Bitchat, a decentralized peer-to-peer messaging app developed by Block CEO Jack Dorsey, from its China App Store at the request of Beijing’s internet regulator, Dorsey disclosed in an X post on Sunday.

The Cyberspace Administration of China argued the app violated regulations governing online services with “public opinion or social mobilization capabilities,” a provision that requires security assessments before launch.

Apple’s app review team told Dorsey that both the App Store listing and the TestFlight beta version would no longer be available in China, though the app remains accessible in other countries.

Bitchat runs entirely over Bluetooth and mesh networks with no internet connection required, a design that makes it functionally impossible for governments to block through conventional internet shutdowns or firewall filtering.

That architecture has made it a tool of choice during recent protests in Madagascar, Uganda, Nepal, Indonesia, and Iran, where authorities attempted to restrict internet access to curb dissent.

The app has been downloaded more than three million times across platforms, with over 92,000 downloads in the past week alone, though regional breakdowns are not available. The Google Play Store shows more than one million registered downloads separately.

Rwanda’s central bank has reiterated that cryptocurrency activity tied to the local currency remains prohibited, responding swiftly after crypto exchange Bybit introduced support for the Rwandan franc on its peer-to-peer marketplace.

In a statement posted to X on Sunday, the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) made clear that crypto-assets are not permitted for payments, conversions involving the franc, or P2P trading under the current regulatory framework. 

Authorities also cautioned residents against engaging with such services, warning of “serious financial risks and no recourse in case of loss.”

The clarification followed an announcement from Bybit on Friday indicating that users could buy and sell digital assets using the Rwandan franc through its P2P platform. The move appeared to prompt an immediate response from regulators, who emphasized that the franc remains the country’s only recognized legal tender. Financial institutions licensed by the NBR are also barred from facilitating conversions between FRW and crypto-assets. 

ByBit has yet to issue an official statement as of press time.

Rwanda has kept a strict stance on crypto since 2018, with policymakers focusing on protecting the financial system and supporting the local currency.

At the same time, the country has been working on a state-backed digital currency, the e-franc rwandais, which is still in the proof-of-concept stage and may move to pilot testing.

Meanwhile, Rwanda’s Capital Market Authority has put forward a draft framework to support “responsible innovation” in the crypto sector.

The proposal sets clear limits, including a ban on using crypto as legal tender, restrictions on mining and mixer services, and controls on tokens linked to the franc.

Data from Chainalysis places Rwanda among lower-ranking countries in crypto usage across 2024 and 2025, with transaction volumes trailing far behind regional peers such as Nigeria and South Africa.

Bybit continues expanding offerings

Despite the regulatory pushback, Bybit has continued expanding its product offerings globally. 

As previously reported by crypto.news, the exchange has recently leaned into strategies designed to attract users during uncertain market conditions, including a stronger focus on stablecoin yield products and fixed-income-style instruments. Bybit plans to roll out up to $10 million in stablecoin-backed opportunities.

Gold price rallied above $4,750 before correcting lower. Crude oil prices are rising and could climb further higher toward $110.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

· Gold price gained pace for a move toward $4,800 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.

· A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,630 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.

· WTI Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $100.00 resistance zone.

· There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $97.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above $4,500. The price even surpassed $4,750 before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to $4,800 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below $4,750 and $4,700. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,351 swing low to the $4,800 high.

However, the bulls are active above $4,575 and the 50% Fib retracement. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,630.

Immediate hurdle on the upside is $4,695 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major breakout level is $4,750. An upside break above $4,750 could send Gold price toward $4,800. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,880.

If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near $4,630 and the trend line. The first key breakdown zone could be $4,520. If there is a downside break below $4,520, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $4,350.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a steady increase against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it settled above $96.40.

The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average, and the RSI climbed toward 75. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $97.00. The price tested the $105.85 zone and is currently consolidating gains.

There was a minor pullback below $103 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $92.78 swing low to the $105.86 low.

If there is a fresh increase, the price could struggle near $105.85. A close above $106.85 could send the price toward $108. The next key area of interest might be $110. Any more gains might send the price toward $112.

Conversely, the price might correct gains and test $100.85. The main bid area on the WTI crude oil chart could be $99.30, the 50% Fib retracement level, and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $96.40. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move to $92.80.

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Key Points

• State-sponsored North Korean operatives masqueraded as a legitimate quantitative trading firm, cultivating trust within Drift Protocol over a six-month period before executing a $270 million theft on April 1.
• The threat actors established in-person relationships with protocol contributors at international crypto conferences and injected over $1 million in actual funds to bolster credibility.
• System infiltration occurred through a malicious TestFlight application and exploitation of a documented security flaw in VSCode/Cursor development environments.
• Security researchers have linked the operation to UNC4736, alternatively identified as AppleJeus or Citrine Sleet, with ties to North Korean state interests.
• Legal experts suggest the breach may represent actionable negligence, with class action litigation efforts already underway.

On April 1, Drift Protocol suffered a catastrophic $270 million security breach following an extended infiltration campaign orchestrated by a North Korean state-backed hacking collective spanning approximately half a year.

The sophisticated operation began at a prominent cryptocurrency conference during autumn 2025. The perpetrators successfully impersonated representatives of a quantitative trading operation, arriving with comprehensive technical knowledge, authenticated professional credentials, and detailed familiarity with Drift’s infrastructure and operations.

Initial communications were established through a Telegram channel, initiating months of sustained dialogue. Discussions centered on topics typical of institutional trading partnerships: vault integration protocols, strategic trading methodologies, and operational frameworks.

During the December 2025 to January 2026 timeframe, the fraudulent entity officially established an Ecosystem Vault within the Drift ecosystem. They conducted numerous collaborative working sessions with platform contributors and deployed over $1 million in actual capital—a calculated move designed to establish authenticity.

Throughout February and March 2026, Drift personnel engaged in direct, face-to-face meetings with representatives from the group at various international conference venues across multiple nations. By the time of the April 1 attack, the relationship had matured over nearly half a year.

Technical Compromise Methods Revealed

The breach materialized through a dual-vector attack strategy. Initially, a team member installed a TestFlight application—Apple’s beta distribution system that circumvents standard App Store security verification processes—which the attackers had marketed as their proprietary wallet solution.

Additionally, the threat actors weaponized a publicly documented vulnerability present in VSCode and Cursor, two prevalent integrated development environments. The exploit required nothing more than opening a compromised file within either editor to silently execute malicious payload code without triggering any user notifications or security alerts.

Following successful device compromise, the attackers methodically extracted credentials necessary to secure two multisignature wallet approvals. These pre-authorized transactions remained inactive for over a week before execution on April 1, resulting in the extraction of $270 million within sixty seconds.

Cybersecurity analysts have connected the incident to UNC4736, a threat actor group also designated as AppleJeus or Citrine Sleet. Blockchain forensics revealed transaction patterns linking to the October 2024 Radiant Capital compromise, which investigators also attributed to North Korean actors. Notably, individuals who appeared physically at conferences were not North Korean citizens—DPRK-affiliated groups characteristically employ third-party proxies with elaborately fabricated identities.

Legal Ramifications and Security Failures

Cryptocurrency legal specialist Ariel Givner has indicated the incident potentially constitutes actionable civil negligence. She emphasized that fundamental security protocols—including maintaining signing keys on isolated, air-gapped systems and conducting thorough background verification of developers encountered at industry events—appear to have been inadequately implemented.

“Every credible project understands these requirements. Drift failed to implement them,” Givner stated. Marketing materials for class action litigation targeting Drift are already in circulation.

Drift’s security team has expressed “medium-high confidence” that identical threat actors executed the October 2024 Radiant Capital attack, where malicious software was distributed via Telegram from an individual impersonating a former contractor.