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UBS downgrades the U.S. stock market. Here’s what has the investment bank worried

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 25, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.

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Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.

The dollar risk is a central concern, Garthwaite wrote. UBS forecasts the euro climbing to $1.22 by the end of the first quarter and sees “asymmetric structural downside risks” to the greenback. Historically, when the dollar’s trade-weighted index falls 10%, U.S. equities underperform by roughly 4% in unhedged terms, according to the bank.

Foreign markets are trouncing the U.S. this year as a weaker dollar and cheaper valuations draw capital overseas. The MSCI World ex-US index has gained about 8% in 2026, compared with the little changed performance for the S&P 500. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has rallied 17% year to date, while the Stoxx Europe 600 is up 7%, underscoring a sharp rotation away from American equities. U.S. stocks struggled again Friday as investors fretted over the potential downsides of the artificial intelligence buildout and persistent inflation at home.

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S&P 500 year to date

Another pillar of U.S. stock strength — corporate buybacks — is also losing its edge, the bank said. The buyback yield in the U.S. is now only roughly on par with global peers, eroding what had been a key support for earnings per share growth and investor flows, UBS said. The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks in the U.S. is now about half that of Europe, the bank said.

“The buybacks yield is no longer exceptional and this had been an important driver of funds flow, EPS and valuation,” Garthwaite wrote.

Valuations add to the unease. UBS calculates that the sector-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for US stocks is 35% above international peers, versus an average premium of about 4% since 2010. Roughly 60% of sectors trade not only at higher multiples than their global counterparts but also above their own historical premium, the strategist wrote.

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Policy volatility under President Donald Trump is another headwind. This year has brought shifts in tariff policy, proposals to cap credit-card interest rates, potential limits on private equity investment in housing, renewed scrutiny of drug pricing and suggestions to curb dividends and buybacks for defense companies, UBS said.

Still, the noted strategist stopped short of turning outright bearish. Garthwaite said the U.S. economy and equities tend to benefit more than peers when markets are in the early phases of a potential bubble. The bank also expects artificial intelligence adoption to outpace most other major regions, with the possible exception of China, helping sustain earnings growth across key industries.

UBS strategist Sean Simonds set a year-end target of 7,500 for the S&P 500, compared with an average forecast of 7,629 among 14 top strategists, according to CNBC Pro’s strategist survey.

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Crypto World

US Bitcoin ETFs Log Biggest Weekly Inflow Since February

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US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Performance.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their strongest weekly inflow since February last week, drawing more than $786 million.

Data from SoSoValue showed that the US-listed funds’ performance last week narrowly trailed the roughly $787.31 million recorded during the last week of February.

BlackRock and Morgan Stanley’s New MSBT Fund Drive Interest

The inflows followed a softer stretch for the products amid broader market volatility and geopolitical tension, which weighed on risk appetite.

SoSoValue data shows that the flow pattern was uneven through the week. The funds opened with a sharp $471.32 million intake on Monday, then slipped into outflows midweek before recovering on Thursday and Friday.

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US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Performance.
US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Performance. Source: SoSoValue.

The turnaround left the group with its best weekly result in nearly two months and suggested buyers returned as Bitcoin regained momentum.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust remained the main driver of demand. The fund brought in about $612 million during the week, accounting for almost four-fifths of total net inflows across the category.

The concentration underscored how heavily new institutional allocations continue to favor the largest and most liquid product in the market.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s newly launched MSBT fund added another point of interest for the market. The fund raised roughly $46 million over its first three trading days, giving investors a fresh entry point as demand across the ETF group picked up again.

Its early flows were modest compared with BlackRock’s scale, but the launch carries broader significance because of Morgan Stanley’s distribution reach. The bank’s network of roughly 16,000 financial advisers oversees trillions of dollars in client assets, giving it access to a channel few Bitcoin ETF issuers can match.

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The improvement in fund flows came alongside a strong week for the underlying asset. Bitcoin climbed from around $67,000 to above $70,000 during the period and was trading near $73,411 by the end of the week, a gain of about 9%.

The move marked one of the token’s strongest weekly advances in recent months and helped restore momentum after a period of weaker price action.

The post US Bitcoin ETFs Log Biggest Weekly Inflow Since February appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto World

Polymarket Briefly Appears in Google News Before Being Removed

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Polymarket Briefly Appears in Google News Before Being Removed

Polymarket betting markets reportedly appeared inside Google News results alongside established news publishers before disappearing.

A Google spokesperson told The Verge that the platform’s appearance in News was an error. “This site briefly appeared in Google News in error, and it is no longer surfacing in News,” spokesperson Ned Adriance reportedly said.

Before removal, Polymarket links were shown directly beneath mainstream outlets when users searched event-driven queries. In one example cited by Futurism, a search for “will ships transit the strait” related to the Strait of Hormuz returned a Polymarket market predicting outcomes on vessel passage alongside reporting from Reuters and The Guardian.

Source: Futurism

In a Sunday search conducted by Cointelegraph, the same query did not surface any Polymarket results.

Related: Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire

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Polymarket and Kalshi pursue media partnerships

Last year, Google partnered with both Polymarket and rival Kalshi to integrate their data into Google Finance.

In June, Elon Musk’s X also announced a partnership with Polymarket, naming it as its official prediction market partner. The deal aimed to integrate the betting-based forecasting service into the social media platform.

Furthermore, in October, MetaMask said it would integrate Polymarket as part of its push to expand beyond a crypto wallet into a broader “democratized finance” gateway. The same month, World App, the digital wallet and identity platform from Sam Altman’s World project, also added the Polymarket app.

Related: Prediction market users await Artemis II mission splashdown

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Small portion of Polymarket traders make a profit

As Cointelegraph reported, only a tiny fraction of Polymarket traders manage to generate consistent high monthly income, according to new data shared by crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov. While around 1% of traders have crossed $5,000 in profits in a single month, only 0.015% were able to sustain that level for four consecutive months.

The findings also show that just 0.033% of wallets have exceeded $100,000 in total profits, with some of these likely belonging to professional traders rather than retail users. Despite growing hype around prediction markets as a fast-rising crypto use case, the data suggests most participants struggle to maintain consistent profitability over time.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder