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UK moves to freeze crypto donations in politics

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UK moves to freeze crypto donations in politics

The UK government is moving toward a temporary ban on political donations made through cryptocurrencies after a fresh review raised concerns about foreign money entering British politics. 

Summary

  • Keir Starmer confirmed a moratorium on crypto political donations during House of Commons questioning Wednesday
  • UK lawmakers linked crypto donations to foreign interference risks and weak transparency in elections
  • Proposed ban would stay until Parliament and Electoral Commission approve stronger donation safeguards

Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed on March 25 that the government will pursue a moratorium while wider safeguards are prepared. Starmer told the House of Commons that the government will act to protect the country’s political system. He said, 

”That will include a moratorium on all political donations made through cryptocurrencies.”

The move followed the Rycroft Review, which examined foreign financial interference in UK politics. A parliamentary committee also backed an immediate ban on crypto political donations until stronger rules are in place.

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The government said crypto donations will be blocked until the rules are strong enough to deal with untraceable money and foreign interference. The plan is tied to wider efforts to tighten political finance rules under the Representation of the People Bill.

Official bill material says the proposed change would ban or pause cryptocurrency donations while further review takes place. The same material also links the policy to risks from anonymous payment methods in elections.

Furthermore, the change is not law yet. The Representation of the People Bill is still at committee stage in the House of Commons and must pass both Houses of Parliament before receiving royal assent.

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The government said the measure would take retrospective effect from March 25, 2026. Once the law comes into force, parties, candidates, and other regulated groups would have 30 days to return unlawful donations received during that period before enforcement can begin.

Ban stays until regulators approve the framework

The government said the moratorium would remain in place until Parliament and the Electoral Commission are satisfied that the rules are robust enough to support confidence and transparency in this area. That means the restriction would not end automatically after passage.

The issue has gained attention since Reform UK began accepting crypto donations in 2025. The next UK general election must be held by August 15, 2029, which gives lawmakers time to decide whether a permanent framework will replace the temporary ban.

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Brazil passes law turning seized crypto into public-security war chest

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Brazil’s finance minister delays divisive crypto tax plan

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed into law a sweeping set of reforms aimed at dismantling organized crime, and cryptocurrencies are at the center of the strategy.

Under Law No. 15.358, enacted March 25, cryptoassets confiscated from criminal organizations can be funneled into Brazil’s public security system.

This includes funding for police equipment, intelligence operations and officer training. The law explicitly allows the provisional use of these assets before a final conviction, provided it is approved by a judge.

Rather than treating seized cryptocurrencies as a potential reserve of value for the state, an idea floated by some crypto advocates, the government is using it as a tool in the crackdown on groups like the PCC and Comando Vermelho.

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The decision aligns with Brazil’s broader efforts to modernize the justice system’s handling of digital property and organized crime.

The legislation also significantly expands judicial authority to freeze, block or seize cryptoassets during investigations, including suspending access to exchanges, digital wallets and online platforms. Once convicted, individuals permanently lose access to the formal financial and crypto systems.

The law defines the use of encrypted messaging apps or privacy tools to conceal criminal activity as an aggravating factor, increasing potential sentences.

It also enables international cooperation for asset recovery and intelligence sharing, and creates a national criminal database integrating financial structures of known criminal groups.

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U.S. midterms pack major digital assets wallop as Stand With Crypto preps strategy

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U.S. midterms pack major digital assets wallop as Stand With Crypto preps strategy

Congressional Republicans are already on the ropes in this year’s U.S. midterm elections, and Congress is likely to shift in ways that deeply affect crypto efforts. So, advocacy group Stand With Crypto is gearing up with a slate of candidate endorsements and a new political poll that says neither party has a majority advantage as crypto’s best advocate.

Stand With Crypto, established initially by Coinbase as a pro-crypto group populated by retail investors, is known for its political advocacy, including maintaining a grading system for U.S. politicians. It announced endorsements in six “battleground” races on Thursday, backing congressional incumbents — such as Republican Zach Nunn in Iowa and Democrat Don Davis in North Carolina — who have been supportive of the industry.

The organization will deploy efforts to marshal its membership to vote and will also pay for media campaigns. In two other districts, it said it will oppose politicians with records against crypto interests. And more races will be named as the year goes on, the group said.

In these consequential elections, Stand With Crypto commissioned a survey that outlined a sense of crypto-owning voters in battleground states. The results, released Thursday, show that neither the Republican nor Democratic party has locked down a majority who think they’re better for the industry, though Republicans are favored 45% to 26%, according to the Impact Research study conducted last month.

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The snapshot of potential voters, which had a margin of error of 4.4%, said crypto enthusiasts were highly motivated to cast ballots this year, and 64% of those who hold crypto said they’re enthusiastic about supporting pro-crypto candidates.

These midterms could bring significant consequences for the industry. Even if Congress finishes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before the November general elections, a number of other crypto legislative needs remain — including a tailoring of the U.S. tax system for crypto, and the establishment of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve that President Donald Trump ordered. But it’s very likely that Democrats will be running at least one of the congressional chambers by then, and crypto may not be as high a priority as it’s been for Republicans.

Wagers at prediction market firm Kalshi have the chances of Democrats taking the House majority at more than 84%. The odds for the more difficult Democratic path in the Senate is considered closer to a coin flip.

The other House lawmakers endorsed by Stand With Crypto include:

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  • Representative Susie Lee, a Nevada Democrat;
  • Representative Mike Lawler, a New York Republican;
  • Representative Greg Landsman, an Ohio Democrat;
  • Representative Rob Bresnahan, a Pennsylvania Republican.

Read More: Stand With Crypto advocacy group sees nearly 700,000 new members ahead of 2026 election

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MemeCore Hard Fork Sends M Up 35% as Speculative Flows Extend to Maxi Doge Presale

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🚀

MemeCore hard fork is driving a sharp repricing in the meme coin segment, with its native M token up more than 35% over the past 24 hours to around $2.36. The move lifted M’s market cap above $3.1 billion, while daily trading volume more than doubled to $32.9 million, underscoring a broader return in speculative risk appetite across the category.

The immediate catalyst was operational rather than thematic. MemeCore completed the second and final stage of its blockchain upgrade yesterday, delivering a 100-fold reduction in gas fees and introducing account abstraction. In a sector where traders often chase momentum, infrastructure changes that materially improve cost and usability can quickly redirect capital.

That rotation is now extending beyond M itself. One of the clearest examples is Maxi Doge (MAXI), whose presale has raised more than $4.7 million and is nearing its $5 million target at a token price of $0.000281.

The MemeCore development team activated the final stage of the hard fork at 2am UTC yesterday. Gas fees dropped from 1,500 gwei to 15 gwei, a change that materially lowers friction for active traders, token launches, and on-chain meme coin activity. The upgrade also introduced account abstraction, tighter EVM compatibility and early Layer 2 scaling components.

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For node operators, the process required downloading the latest Go MemeCore Client version. For users and dApps, the transition was designed to be seamless.

The official MemeCore X account confirmed the fork and outlined its main changes.

Market reaction was immediate. M trading volume climbed by roughly 147% after the fork went live, although activity remains below the levels typically associated with a broader market breakout. On-chain data has started to recover from a recent slowdown, while price action has tested support around $2.25.

For traders, the main implication is straightforward: lower transaction costs can make meme-focused chains more viable for higher-frequency participation and for new token launches. That tends to benefit not only the underlying chain token, but also adjacent speculative plays drawing fresh attention.

Capital Rotation Reaches MAXI as Presale Nears $5 Million


Maxi Doge (MAXI) is among the projects seeing that spillover. The presale, which launched in July 2025, has maintained steady traction through its pricing stages and has now collected more than $4.7 million.

Maxi Doge (MAXI) is built around a high-risk trader persona, giving the token a clear identity within the meme coin market’s leverage-heavy culture. In the current environment, that positioning appears to be resonating as traders look for earlier-stage vehicles with stronger upside torque than more established meme assets.

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Momentum indicators are also visible in the campaign itself. The presale is approaching its $5 million target, while the project continues to use community-driven branding, staking incentives, and event plans to sustain attention.

Beyond branding, the project says staking rewards are already active through the presale smart contract, with a 66% APY currently on offer. The team is also planning community trading contests with prize distributions to top performers.

Maxi Doge has allocated 25% of total supply to a Maxi Fund intended to support visibility and liquidity after listing. Longer-term plans include partnerships with futures exchanges and gamified campaigns aligned with the project’s trading-focused identity.

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The setup leaves MAXI positioned as a higher-risk, higher-upside play on the same rotation, lifting interest in meme infrastructure. According to presale commentators such as Borch Crypto, the token could potentially deliver 100x returns, though such projections remain speculative. What is concrete for now is that the raise has passed $4.7 million, and the next presale price increase is due tomorrow.

How Traders Can Access the Maxi Doge Presale


Buyers can join the sale through the official Maxi Doge presale website by connecting a wallet through the project’s purchase widget and buying MAXI at the current $0.000281 price.

The widget supports ETH, BNB, USDT, and USDC, while bank card purchases are also available. Staking can be activated immediately after purchase, with the current rate set at 66% APY.

Mobile users can also access the sale through Best Wallet, available via the Apple App Store and Google Play, by using the app’s “Upcoming Tokens” tab. Tokens bought through Best Wallet will be claimable once the presale ends and exchange listings begin.

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For ongoing updates on pricing stages and community events, users can follow the Maxi Doge project on X and join the active Telegram group.

Visit Maxi Doge Token.

The post MemeCore Hard Fork Sends M Up 35% as Speculative Flows Extend to Maxi Doge Presale appeared first on Cryptonews.

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The Death of APR as a Metric

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The Death of APR as a Metric

The Death of APR as a Metric

(And why your “yield” is probably lying to you)

There was a time when APR ruled DeFi.

Scroll any dashboard, and it screams the same thing:
“1,245% APR 🚀” — like a neon sign pulling you into the casino.

And for a while, it worked.

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But today? APR is less of a signal… and more of a decoy.

Let’s break down why APR is dying—and what actually matters now.


APR Was Always a Half-Truth

APR (Annual Percentage Rate) assumes one big thing:

That everything stays the same.

  • Same rewards.
  • Same token price.
  • Same liquidity.
  • Same user behavior.

In DeFi, that assumption lasts about… 12 minutes.

The moment emissions change, token prices drop, or whales rotate—your “1,000% APR” quietly collapses into something far less exciting.

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APR doesn’t measure reality. It measures a snapshot of a moment that’s already gone.

The Illusion of High Yield

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

High APR is often a symptom of high inflation, not high returns.

Protocols boost APR by flooding rewards:

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  • Printing tokens
  • Emitting aggressively
  • Incentivizing short-term liquidity

At first, it looks like profit.

But zoom out:

  • Token price dumps
  • Liquidity exits
  • Late users hold the bag

What looked like yield was actually dilution.


APR Ignores the Only Thing That Matters: Net Profit

Let’s say you farm:

  • 300% APR
  • But the reward token drops 70%
  • And you get hit with impermanent loss

Did you win?

APR says yes.
Your wallet says otherwise.

APR doesn’t account for:

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  • Price volatility
  • Slippage
  • Gas fees
  • Impermanent loss
  • Exit liquidity

It’s like judging a business by revenue… while ignoring expenses.

The market is evolving.

The Rise of “Real Yield”

Protocols are shifting from:

  • Emissions → Revenue sharing
  • Incentives → Sustainable fees
  • Inflation → Actual cash flow

“Real yield” means:

Earnings come from users paying for a service—not from printing tokens out of thin air.

Think:

  • Trading fees
  • Borrowing interest
  • Protocol revenue redistribution

It’s slower.
Less flashy.
But infinitely more real.


APR Is Now a Marketing Tool

Let’s be blunt:

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APR today is often just a growth hack.

A way to:

  • Attract liquidity quickly
  • Bootstrap a network
  • Create hype

And sometimes…
to distract you.

Because if a protocol leads with APR instead of fundamentals, you should ask:

What are they not showing me?


What You Should Look At Instead

1. Revenue Sources

Where does the money actually come from?

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2. Token Emissions

Is yield being printed or earned?

3. Liquidity Quality

Can you exit without nuking the price?

4. User Demand

Are people using the product—or just farming it?

5. Sustainability

Will this still exist in 6 months?

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The Bottom Line

APR isn’t completely useless.

But treating it as your north star?

That’s how you get wrecked.

In today’s DeFi landscape:

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  • Attention is gamified
  • Yield is engineered
  • Narratives move faster than fundamentals

The edge now belongs to those who look past the headline number.

Because the real game isn’t about earning the highest APR.

It’s about keeping the most value when the music stops.


Final Thinking

If someone is still selling you on APR alone…

You’re not looking at an opportunity.

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You’re looking at an exit strategy—just not yours.

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Bitcoin (BTC) sales by MARA Holdings (MARA) fuels rise in stock price

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Bitcoin (BTC) sales by MARA Holdings (MARA) fuels rise in stock price

MARA Holdings (MARA) sold 15,133 bitcoin for approximately $1.1 billion between March 4 and March 25 to fund a major balance sheet overhaul.

The company is using the proceeds to repurchase roughly $1.0 billion of its 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2030 and 2031 at a discount.

In total, MARA will buy back $367.5 million of its 2030 notes for $322.9 million and $633.4 million of its 2031 notes for $589.9 million. The discounted purchases, about 9% below par, will generate approximately $88.1 million in value, said the company.

MARA was higher by 10% in premarket trading.

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Beyond the immediate savings, the transaction materially reshapes MARA’s capital structure. The repurchases will reduce its convertible debt by around 30%, cutting total outstanding convertible notes from about $3.3 billion to $2.3 billion. This also reduces the risk of future shareholder dilution associated with conversions.

“Our decision to sell a portion of our bitcoin holdings reflects a strategic capital allocation move designed to strengthen our balance sheet and position the company for long-term growth,” said CEO Fred Thiel.

MARA now holds 38,689 BTC following the sale.

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Chewy (CHWY) Stock Soars 13% on Strong 2026 Revenue Outlook and AI Cost Savings

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CHWY Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Chewy shares climbed approximately 13% following 2026 revenue projections of $13.6B–$13.75B, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations
  • Fourth-quarter revenue reached $3.26 billion, representing an 8.1% increase when accounting for the additional week in the prior-year period
  • The customer base expanded 4% to 21.3 million active users; average spending per customer increased 2.2% to $591
  • The company anticipates artificial intelligence initiatives will generate $50M+ in annual cost reductions by 2027, with initial savings in the “low tens of millions” projected for 2026
  • The Chewy Vet Care network expanded to 18 facilities and represents the company’s fastest-expanding business line by customer spending

Chewy delivered fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday that aligned with Wall Street projections, though it was the forward-looking 2026 guidance that sparked significant investor enthusiasm.


CHWY Stock Card
Chewy, Inc., CHWY

The online pet products platform issued full-year revenue guidance ranging from $13.6 billion to $13.75 billion. This forecast exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of $13.58 billion, propelling shares approximately 13% higher during Wednesday’s session to close near $26.50.

Fourth-quarter revenue totaled $3.26 billion, representing a 0.5% increase on a reported basis and an 8.1% gain after adjusting for the calendar discrepancy with the previous year’s comparable quarter. This figure aligned with analyst projections. Gross profit margin expanded by 90 basis points to reach 29.4%, while adjusted EBITDA increased from $124.5 million to $162.3 million.

Adjusted earnings per share registered at $0.27, falling one cent short of the $0.28 Street consensus. On a GAAP basis, net income reached $39.2 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared to $22.8 million in the year-ago period.

The active customer count rose 4% year-over-year to 21.3 million users. Net sales per active customer increased 2.2% to $591. Chief Executive Officer Sumit Singh highlighted that pet parents are progressively viewing their animals as family members and upgrading to higher-quality, premium offerings — a behavioral shift he anticipates will persist.

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Chief Financial Officer Chris Deppe clarified that the 2026 guidance assumes zero pricing inflation. Revenue expansion is projected to stem from attracting new customers alongside increased wallet share from the existing base.

Artificial Intelligence Driving Operational Efficiency

Chewy has invested in AI technology infrastructure over recent quarters and is now implementing these systems across various operational areas, including customer service, logistics networks, and distribution centers.

Singh indicated that AI-powered operational improvements are expected to generate benefits in the “low tens of millions” during 2026, scaling to approximately $50 million or greater in annualized cost savings by 2027. The retailer is simultaneously increasing capacity at its advanced fulfillment facility in Houston as part of the comprehensive efficiency initiative.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Chewy projected revenue between $3.33 billion and $3.36 billion with adjusted earnings per share ranging from $0.40 to $0.45, figures that generally matched analyst forecasts.

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Veterinary Services Footprint Growing

Chewy Vet Care expanded by 10 additional locations throughout fiscal 2025, elevating the total practice count to 18 facilities. CVC presently operates across five states, with strategic plans for nationwide rollout.

Singh reported that CVC performance is surpassing internal projections regarding customer satisfaction metrics and is serving as an effective customer acquisition channel that deepens relationships with premium-tier customers. Management characterized it as the fastest-expanding business segment measured by net sales per active customer.

The company also finalized its acquisition of SmartEquine, a digital platform focused on equine health management. This transaction is projected to contribute approximately $80 million in net sales during 2026 — representing less than 1% of consolidated revenue, though it demonstrates strategic diversification beyond companion animals.

Notwithstanding Wednesday’s sharp rally, Chewy stock has declined nearly 20% over the trailing twelve months and continues trading substantially below its 52-week peak of $48.62.

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Silver Price Falls Back Below $70

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Silver Price Falls Back Below $70

As can be observed on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver has once again dropped below the psychological $70 level. At the same time, this week has been marked by sharp fluctuations: on Monday, prices traded below $65, while as recently as yesterday, silver reached $74 per ounce.

Market volatility is being driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Conflicting statements from the United States and Iran regarding potential peace negotiations continue to unsettle financial markets. According to media reports:

→ Washington maintains that negotiations are ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly delivering a 15-point proposal to Iran via intermediaries, aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

→ Iran, in turn, has stated that it does not intend to negotiate with the US, rejecting the proposed ceasefire and instead putting forward its own conditions.

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On the morning of 19 March, analysing the XAG/USD chart, we:

→ concluded that the market was under significant pressure;
→ identified and plotted a descending channel (marked in red) on the silver price chart;
→ suggested that the channel’s median line could act as near-term resistance, thereby validating the structure.

Indeed, subsequent price action confirmed this framework, as indicated by the arrows:

→ the lower boundary acted as support on the same day;
→ yesterday, price reversed lower from the median line (which shifted from support to resistance), reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment observed throughout March.

From a bullish perspective:

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→ the break below the 6 February low around the $64 level highlights aggressive demand — so-called “smart money” may have absorbed liquidity in this zone, positioning for higher prices;
→ silver may be in the process of forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

However, as long as price continues to trade below the red median line of the active channel, it would be premature to speak of any meaningful bullish conviction.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Circle backs Tazapay extension, boosting Series B to $36M

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Crypto Breaking News

Tazapay, a cross-border payment infrastructure provider, has closed an extension to its Series B funding round, lifting total funding to $36 million. The extension was led by Circle Ventures and included participation from Coinbase Ventures, CMT Digital, Peak XV Partners and Ripple. The new capital will be used to expand digital settlement technology for cross-border payments, secure additional licenses, broaden geographic reach across Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and the Americas, and build infrastructure for what the company calls “agentic payments.”

Tazapay serves more than 1,000 enterprises and fintechs across 30 countries, and holds licenses in Singapore, Canada, Australia and the United States, with active applications underway in the European Union, United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. “The demand we’re seeing from enterprises and fintechs across Asia, LATAM, and the Middle East is unmistakable; businesses want to move money faster, cheaper, and with full regulatory confidence,” said Kanupriya Sharda, chief business officer at Tazapay.

Cointelegraph asked Tazapay for the size of the extension tranche and the company’s valuation, but did not receive a response by publication.

Related: Ripple joins Singapore sandbox to test RLUSD in trade finance

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Key takeaways

  • Tazapay’s Series B extension brings total fundraising to $36 million, with Circle Ventures leading and participation from Coinbase Ventures, CMT Digital, Peak XV Partners and Ripple.
  • The fresh capital targets expansion of cross-border digital settlement tech, licensing pursuits, and regional growth into Asia, LATAM, the Middle East and the Americas, plus development of “agentic payments.”
  • The funding news comes against a backdrop of growing interest in stablecoin–based cross-border rails, with Ripple expanding its institutional stablecoin platform to over 60 markets and processing more than $100 billion in volume.
  • Other early-stage fintechs are also scaling stablecoin–fiat payment networks, such as Conduit, which raised $36 million in May 2025 to broaden its fiat and stablecoin offerings and serve as an alternative to SWIFT.
  • Regulatory licensing, interoperability, and real-world adoption remain pivotal for pushing these rails from pilots to mainstream use.

Tazapay’s expansion blueprint and regulatory footprint

According to the company, the new funding will accelerate the rollout of its cross-border settlement technology by pursuing additional licensing and expanding in key regions, including Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and the Americas. Tazapay currently maintains licenses in Singapore, Canada, Australia and the United States, with active applications in the European Union, United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. The firm reported serving more than 1,000 enterprises and fintechs across 30 markets, underscoring growing demand for faster, cheaper, and regulation-compliant cross-border payments. The chief business officer, Kanupriya Sharda, highlighted “unmistakable” demand from enterprises and fintechs across Asia, LATAM, and the Middle East for improved money movement capabilities.

Stablecoins and the race to upgrade cross-border rails

The extension of Tazapay’s Series B comes as a wave of fintech and crypto companies push to embed stablecoins into cross-border payment workflows. Ripple, for example, has expanded Ripple Payments into an end-to-end stablecoin and fiat platform for banks and fintechs. The platform is live in more than 60 markets and has processed over $100 billion in volume, signaling a meaningful move toward institutional-grade stablecoin rails in global payments.

In the same ecosystem, regulatory and sandbox activity around stablecoins continues. For instance, Ripple recently joined Singapore’s sandbox to test RLUSD in trade finance, illustrating how regulated pilots are shaping the rollout of new settlement tools across jurisdictions.

Beyond Tazapay and Ripple, the market has seen other notable fundraising tied to cross-border rails. In May 2025, Conduit announced a $36 million Series A round led by Dragonfly and Altos Ventures to scale its fiat and stablecoin payment network, positioning the project as a potential alternative to traditional messaging corridors such as SWIFT.

These developments reflect a broader industry shift: a push to replace or augment legacy rails with programmable, regulator-friendly settlement networks built on stablecoins and crypto rails, designed to cut settlement times and costs while preserving compliance and risk controls.

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What this means for readers and market watchers

For investors, Tazapay’s extension signals continued appetite for platforms that can operationalize cross-border liquidity with robust licensing and multi-jurisdictional reach. For enterprises and fintechs, the move reinforces a trend toward using stablecoin-based settlement to reduce friction in international payments while maintaining regulatory confidence. For builders, the emphasis on “agentic payments”—where payment flows can be orchestrated and automated at the edge of networks—points to a future where payment rails are more integrated with enterprise workflows and financial ecosystems.

As the sector scales, observers will want to watch licensing progress, regional execution, and the ability of these platforms to deliver truly cost-effective and faster settlement at scale. Regulatory clarity across key markets—especially around stablecoins and cross-border fintech operations—will continue to shape how quickly and broadly these rails can be adopted.

Readers should keep an eye on further disclosures from Tazapay about the extension’s size and valuation, as well as ongoing updates from Ripple, Conduit and other players as they publish new milestones and regulatory milestones in the coming quarters.

The story continues to unfold as more regional licenses, pilot programs, and enterprise deployments come online, potentially reshaping the architecture of global payments over the next few years.

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The EUR/AUD Pair Rose by More Than 2% Over the Week

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The EUR/AUD Pair Rose by More Than 2% Over the Week

If last Thursday trading was taking place below the 1.6300 level, today one euro is worth more than 1.6660 Australian dollars. The upward trend seen in recent days has been driven by a combination of factors, including:

Bullish factor for the euro: The European Central Bank (ECB) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upwards (to 2.6%). The reason lies in the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices. This signals to the market that the ECB may not only refrain from cutting rates but could also begin discussing potential rate hikes this year.

Bearish factor for the Australian dollar: The Middle East conflict is placing significant pressure on China’s economy (which is already dealing with a property market crisis). A slowdown in trade with China is weakening the Australian currency. For more details, see the article: What Are Commodity Currencies?

However, the chart indicates that the bullish momentum is fading — this is reflected in a series of bearish divergences, with the RSI moving down from overbought territory.

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Continuing the technical analysis of the EUR/AUD chart, it can be observed that price fluctuations have formed a long-term descending channel. In this context:

Bulls have shown initiative: after touching the lower boundary of the channel, they (as marked by arrows) gradually took control over intermediate channel levels.

The current situation can be interpreted as a period of short-term consolidation (with the formation of a narrowing triangle pattern). The triangle may have been broken this morning, but Australia’s inflation report came in line with expectations — and the market continues to consolidate.

If we assume that bulls manage to gather enough strength for another upward push, they may face a significant test in the form of a resistance zone:

→ the March high around the 1.6730 level;
→ the upper boundary of the descending channel.

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Bitcoin Realized Price Signals Fragile Market Structure as 92% of Short-Term Holders Sit at a Loss

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Around 92% of short-term holders are currently at a loss, holding approximately 5.7 million BTC below cost basis.
  • Strategy’s realized price of $75,600 across 762,000 BTC aligns directly with where Bitcoin’s recent rally was rejected.
  • Bitcoin’s network-wide realized price sits near $54,000, a level historically revisited or traded below in bear markets.
  • CryptoQuant data show overlapping cost-basis levels above the spot price, creating significant resistance to any Bitcoin recovery attempt.

Bitcoin realized price metrics are drawing close attention from market analysts worldwide. On-chain data shows the price is currently interacting with multiple critical cost basis levels.

Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, with key resistance visible both above and below the current spot price. CryptoQuant recently published an analysis covering short-term holders, a major institutional buyer, and broader network cost averages.

Together, these overlapping thresholds are shaping what analysts describe as a fragile market structure.

Short-Term Holders Sit in Loss as Sell Pressure Mounts

Short-term holders are currently carrying heavy unrealized losses at today’s Bitcoin price. CryptoQuant data shows this cohort holds approximately 5.7 million BTC in total.

Of that amount, only around 8% are currently sitting in profit. The remaining 92% are at a loss at current price levels.

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This distribution creates what analysts call a large supply overhang in the market. When most holders are underwater, price rallies often invite immediate selling activity.

Recent buyers tend to use bounces as opportunities to recover their cost basis. That behavior consistently limits how far short-term recoveries can extend.

The short-term holder’s realized price is currently positioned above Bitcoin’s spot price near $70,000. CryptoQuant stated that “recent buyers are underwater, creating sell pressure on every bounce.”

That cost basis level is now acting as overhead resistance on the chart. Price must reclaim it clearly before sentiment can meaningfully shift for this group.

Until short-term holders move back into profit territory, recovery attempts will likely face continued resistance. The volume of BTC held at a loss adds weight to every rally attempt made. Analysts are monitoring the profit-to-loss ratio closely for any early signs of a broader market shift.

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Strategy’s Cost Basis and the Network Realized Price Frame the Trading Range

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are also playing a visible role in shaping current market resistance. The firm holds approximately 762,000 BTC with an average cost basis of around $75,600.

CryptoQuant noted that this level aligns directly with where the recent rally faced rejection. That overlap is drawing attention from on-chain analysts tracking large institutional cost basis data.

Large holders with unrealized losses near a price zone can create meaningful resistance for the market. When price approaches their average cost basis, those holders tend to manage risk through selling.

This dynamic appears to have played out during the recent failed push beyond $75,000. CryptoQuant’s data supports this reading of the market’s rejection at that level.

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The broader Bitcoin realized price, representing the average cost basis across all holders, currently sits near $54,000.

Historically, during bear markets, price tends to revisit or trade below this level for extended periods. This makes the $54,000 zone a key reference point for analysts monitoring potential downside risk.

Taken together, these three levels frame the current environment for Bitcoin market participants. Resistance from the short-term holder’s cost basis and Strategy’s realized price sits above spot.

The network-wide average near $54,000 remains a potential downside target if conditions deteriorate further. Traders are watching all three levels closely as price action continues to develop.

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