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US Jobs Data Could Shock Bitcoin, Here’s Why

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US Jobs Data Could Shock Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Bitcoin faces renewed macro pressure after the latest US jobs report signaled a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing Treasury yields higher and reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly double consensus expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, showing continued labor market resilience.

While strong employment is positive for the broader economy, it complicates the outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin.

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Strong Jobs Data Delays Rate Cut Expectations

Markets had been anticipating potential rate cuts in the coming months amid slowing growth concerns. However, a resilient labor market reduces the urgency for monetary easing.

As a result, investors repriced expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Bond markets reacted immediately. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped toward the 4.2% level, rising several basis points after the report. The two-year yield also climbed, reflecting reduced probability of near-term cuts.

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Higher yields tighten financial conditions. They increase borrowing costs across the economy and raise the discount rate used to value risk assets. 

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Why Higher Yields Pressure Bitcoin

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. When Treasury yields rise, capital tends to rotate toward safer, yield-generating assets such as government bonds.

At the same time, a stronger dollar often accompanies rising yields. A firmer dollar reduces global liquidity and makes speculative assets less attractive.

Bitcoin Price Over the Past Week. Source: CoinGecko

This combination creates headwinds for crypto markets.

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Although Bitcoin briefly stabilized near the $70,000 level earlier in the week, the jobs data increases the risk of renewed volatility. Without a clear signal that the Fed will ease policy, liquidity remains constrained.

“For Bitcoin, this report is a short-term headwind. A beat of this magnitude dampens the probability of a March rate cut and reinforces the Fed’s pause at 3.50%-3.75%. The cheaper money catalyst that risk assets need to mount a sustained recovery just got pushed further out. Expect the dollar to firm and yields to reprice higher, both of which pressure BTC into a range in the near term,” David Hernandez, Crypto Investment Specialist at 21shares told BeInCrypto. 

Market Structure Amplifies Macro Stress

The recent crash demonstrated how sensitive Bitcoin has become to macro shifts. Large ETF flows, institutional hedging, and leveraged positioning can accelerate moves when financial conditions tighten.

A stronger labor market does not guarantee Bitcoin will fall. However, it reduces one of the key bullish catalysts: expectations of easier monetary policy.

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“In the short term, Bitcoin looks defensive. The key level to watch is $65,000. However, if this strong report turns out to be temporary rather than a sign the economy is heating up again, the Fed could still cut rates later this year. When that happens, Bitcoin’s limited supply becomes important again. Strong data today may delay a rally, but it doesn’t break the long-term bullish case,” Hernandez said.

Fed Rate Cut Probability for March 2026. Source: CME FedWatch

The Bottom Line

The latest US jobs report reinforces a “higher-for-longer” rate environment.

For Bitcoin, that is not immediately catastrophic. But it does make sustained upside more difficult.

Unless liquidity improves or yields retreat, the macro backdrop now leans cautious rather than supportive for crypto markets.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin $60K Retest Possible Due To Growing Liquidity Gap

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to $65,800 on Wednesday, slipping back below key intraday trend lines and raising concerns that last week’s drop to $60,000 may not have been the final bottom. Now, analysts say the possibility of another drop to the yearly low ($59,800) is increasing due to a growing liquidity gap between $66,000 and $60,000. 

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs after repeated rejections near the $70,000–$72,000 resistance zone.

  • The relative strength index (RSI) is trending toward oversold levels as the price trades below key moving averages.

  • The liquidation heatmap indicated an absence of liquidity up to $60,500, keeping the risk of a downside price move open.

Failure to hold $70,000 weakens Bitcoin’s short-term prospects

Bitcoin’s one-hour chart shows multiple failed attempts to hold above $70,000. Each rejection has led to lower price highs and steady selling pressure.

BTC’s price briefly pushed into intraday highs of $69,800 before reversing sharply during the New York session on Wednesday, forming a classic swing failure pattern. The move trapped breakout longs and accelerated downside momentum.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC also traded below both the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages, confirming short-term bearish control. The RSI remained below 50, indicating limited buying pressure.

A 15-minute order block sits near the $60,800–$61,000 region, an area where strong buying pressure previously stepped in after BTC printed a yearly bottom at $59,800. This region remains a liquidity target if $64,000 fails to hold.

Related: When will Bitcoin start a new bull cycle toward $150K? Look for these signs

Heatmap data shows $60,000 is a liquidity magnet

Bitcoin’s liquidity heatmaps reveal stacked orders above $72,000, but it also highlights a “liquidity void” from $66,000 to $60,500. This “liquidity void” may act as a magnet, as price tends to move quickly through low-liquidity areas to tap concentrated stop clusters below.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin liquidity heatmaps. Source: CoinGlass

Despite more visible liquidity being higher, the downside remains open as a final stack of leveraged longs worth over $350 million is still positioned near $60,500.

Bitcoin trader Husky said Bitcoin is slipping below the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) drawn from last week’s lows at $59,800, a level that is acting as a short-term fair value. 

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With the overall market structure starting to weaken, a lack of a swift recovery above $68,000 increases the risk of further downside toward lower support levels near $65,000. For now, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a broad $60,000 to $72,000 range, according to the trader.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin analysis by Husky. Source: X

Likewise, market analyst EliZ noted that BTC is consolidating near $66,500 inside a descending channel. A break below this level may send the price toward the $63,400–$64,600 support zone, increasing the odds of a revisit to $60,000.

Related: Bitcoin reacts to major US jobs data beat as Fed rate pause odds near 95%