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US lawmakers push to block insider bets on government events

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US lawmakers push to block insider bets on government events

US lawmakers have opened a new front in the fight over prediction markets. A bipartisan House bill now aims to stop top federal officials and their families from trading on government-related outcomes, as pressure also builds around sports and war-linked contracts.

Summary

  • PREDICT Act would bar Congress, presidents, appointees, spouses, and dependents from government-related prediction market trades.
  • Lawmakers tied the proposal to concerns that insiders could profit from war and policy events.
  • Separate Senate and House bills also target sports contracts as pressure grows on platforms nationwide.

Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, or PREDICT Act, on March 25, 2026. 

The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, the president, the vice president, and political appointees from trading on political events, policy decisions, and other government actions on prediction markets.

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The proposal also sets penalties for violations. Reports on the bill say the measure would impose a civil fine equal to 10% of the contract’s value and require any profit to go to the US Treasury. Budzinski said recent market activity raised questions about whether people with inside knowledge could benefit from these trades.

Budzinski said, “we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits” on events tied to war and government funding fights. Smith said public service must not become “a pathway to profit.” Their comments placed the bill within a wider debate over access to sensitive information in Washington.

That debate has grown in March. On March 17, Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act, which would ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where a person knows or controls the outcome. Murphy’s office said unusual trading before military actions involving Iran and Venezuela raised fresh concerns.

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Congress is also moving against sports-related contracts. On March 23, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. Their bill would stop CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games.

Schiff said, “Sports prediction contracts are sports bets.” Curtis said the products belong under state control, not federal regulators. Their offices said sports event contracts now trade across all 50 states, even where local law restricts gambling.

Platforms face state action and new rules

The industry is also under pressure outside Congress. On March 20, a Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi from offering event contracts in the state without a license. The case forms part of a wider fight over whether these products are financial tools or unlicensed gambling.

At the same time, Kalshi and Polymarket have tightened their own rules. Kalshi barred political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, while Polymarket revised its rules to block trades by users with confidential information or direct influence over an outcome.

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Crypto World

Poland Parliament Fails Again to Override Crypto Bill Veto

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Poland Parliament Fails Again to Override Crypto Bill Veto

Poland’s parliament has once again failed to overturn a presidential veto blocking a key crypto regulation bill, extending the political standoff over how the country should oversee digital assets.

In a vote held Friday, lawmakers fell short of the 263 votes required to override the veto issued by President Karol Nawrocki, local outlet TVP World reported. A total of 243 MPs voted against the veto, while 191 supported it, per the report.

The bill, backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, aims to align Poland with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), introduced in 2024 to govern the issuance and custody of crypto assets. Poland remains the only EU member state yet to implement the bloc’s framework.

Nawrocki has defended his decision, citing concerns over excessive regulation, limited transparency and the potential burden on small businesses, according to the TVP World report.

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However, government officials warn that delaying regulation leaves investors exposed. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański reportedly said the absence of clear rules risks turning the market into an “El Dorado for fraudsters,” adding that both consumers and businesses remain vulnerable to abuse.

Related: Zonda exchange says 4.5K BTC wallet inaccessible amid withdrawal crisis

Poland’s crypto bill faces repeated defeats

The failed overturn of the presidential veto marks the second unsuccessful attempt by the government to push the legislation through after a similar rejection in December.

However, despite the failure, Polish lawmakers reintroduced the regulation within days in December last year. They claimed that the new draft was an “improved” version, though critics said it was virtually unchanged from the original.

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Tusk criticizes president for vetoing the bill. Source: Koalicja Obywatelska

President Nawrocki vetoed the bill again in February this year. “I will not sign a wrong law just because it was passed again by the parliamentary majority. A wrong law that passed a hundred times still remains a wrong law,” he said at the time.

Related: Poland president vetoes MiCA bill again as crypto companies look to license abroad

Zonda caught in Poland crypto political row

The dispute has also drawn in Zonda, the country’s largest crypto exchange, which has reportedly lobbied against the bill. Tensions escalated after Tusk accused the platform of links to illicit funding, citing intelligence reports that allegedly connect its origins to Russian criminal networks.

“Attempts to drag me and Zonda into the current political squabbles are as absurd as they are harmful to the Polish innovation market,” Zonda CEO Przemysław Kral wrote on X, adding that he is “compelled to take appropriate legal steps to protect my personal rights.”

Last week, he also said he does not control access to a crypto wallet reportedly holding $330 million, which he claims remained with former CEO Sylwester Suszek prior to his disappearance in 2022.

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