TL,DR

• Thailand plans a 1:1 baht-backed stablecoin.
• Sandbox trials helped shape the new framework.
• Authorities strengthen foreign exchange enforcement.
• Thailand expands its regulated digital asset ecosystem.

Thailand is preparing to introduce a regulatory framework for a privately issued stablecoin, currently at the core of global crypto regulation, backed one-to-one by the Thai baht, marking another milestone in the country’s evolving digital asset strategy. 

The proposal, expected to enter public consultation before the end of 2026, reflects a broader shift in Thailand’s approach to blockchain technology, where the focus has moved beyond regulating cryptocurrencies toward building long-term financial infrastructure.

According to Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn, the proposed stablecoin will initially serve as a settlement instrument between licensed financial institutions before any wider public rollout is considered. The central bank expects formal regulations to follow in early 2027 after gathering industry feedback and assessing the results of ongoing pilot programs.

Stablecoin Will Be Fully Backed by Thai Baht Reserves

Unlike a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the proposed token will be issued by regulated private institutions rather than the Bank of Thailand itself. Every token in circulation must be backed by an equivalent amount of Thai baht held in segregated reserve accounts at licensed financial institutions, ensuring full collateralization.

The central bank believes this model offers the efficiency benefits of blockchain-based payments while preserving confidence through strict reserve requirements and regulatory oversight.

During the initial phase, access will remain limited to banks and financial institutions using the stablecoin strictly for interbank settlement. Broader retail applications will only be considered after authorities evaluate operational performance, security, and financial stability implications.

Thailand’s central bank has spent nearly two years studying programmable digital payments through its Programmable Payment Sandbox, first launched in 2024 before being expanded in late 2025 to accommodate additional participants and use cases.

Insights gathered from those pilot programs now form the foundation of the proposed regulatory framework.

Beyond payments, the Bank of Thailand has also explored how blockchain-based settlement infrastructure could support carbon credit trading and sustainable finance initiatives, adding on to its recent venture in AI. Tokenized settlement is viewed as a way to improve transparency, shorten settlement times, and address inefficiencies that continue to affect environmental asset markets.

Thailand Continues Tightening Oversight of Cross-Border Payments

While expanding regulated blockchain innovation, Thai authorities are simultaneously reinforcing existing foreign exchange controls.

Governor Ratanakorn reiterated that personal QR code payments conducted within Thailand must remain denominated in Thai baht. He also warned that renminbi-denominated transactions processed through foreign payment platforms such as Alipay and WeChat Pay are not permitted for domestic transactions.

Between February 2025 and May 2026, regulators reportedly suspended approximately 5,000 accounts linked to peer-to-peer renminbi payment activity.

Financial institutions or payment providers facilitating transactions in currencies other than the baht could face regulatory penalties, including fines, suspension of operations, or revocation of operating licenses.

The governor also made clear that the Bank of Thailand has no intention of licensing speculative retail foreign exchange trading. Institutions providing settlement services for unauthorized forex transactions could be found in violation of Thailand’s Foreign Exchange Control Act of 1942, exposing operators to significant financial penalties and potential prison sentences.

Thailand’s Crypto Policy Has Shifted From Regulation to Market Development

The stablecoin proposal arrives at a time when Thailand’s digital asset framework is entering a more mature phase amid a recent ease on taxes.

After establishing one of Asia’s earliest comprehensive digital asset regulatory regimes through the Emergency Decree on Digital Asset Businesses in 2018, regulators are now concentrating on expanding legitimate market infrastructure rather than simply managing risk.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s 2026–2028 strategic plan places digital assets alongside traditional financial products instead of treating them as experimental instruments.

The SEC is also developing common technical standards to improve interoperability across tokenized assets while working closely with the Bank of Thailand on settlement mechanisms involving stablecoins, deposit tokens, and electronic money tokens.

Beyond traditional financial products, tokenization is increasingly extending into real estate, infrastructure, entertainment projects, and green finance. Under Thailand’s investment token framework, approved issuers have already raised more than $263 million across several tokenized fundraising projects, with additional offerings progressing through regulatory review.

Ethereum has fallen harder than Bitcoin, down nearly 70% from its high while the ETH/BTC ratio sits near multi-year lows. Will Ether keep lagging the market leader through 2026, or is the underperformance setting up a reversal? Here is the case on both sides, and what would flip it.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $1,550 as of late June 2026, and it has fallen harder than almost any other large-cap crypto asset, which raises the question this article addresses: will Ether keep underperforming Bitcoin through the rest of 2026, or is the very depth of its decline setting up a reversal?

The numbers frame the problem starkly. Ether is down roughly 68% from its August 2025 all-time high near $4,950, a far deeper drawdown than Bitcoin’s roughly 52% fall from its own peak, and it trades below every major moving average, from the 20-day exponential average on up through the 200-day near $2,317, with a completed death cross and a relative strength index near 30.

The Fear and Greed reading sits around 13, even deeper in extreme fear than Bitcoin’s, and the $1,500 to $1,600 zone has become the line in the sand that bulls are defending; a clean loss of it opens $1,450 and then $1,400. Most tellingly for this question, the ratio of Ether’s price to Bitcoin’s sits near multi-year lows, the clearest single expression of how badly Ether has lagged the asset the market treats as its anchor.

That ratio, ETH measured against BTC, is the real subject of this piece, because the question is not only where Ether’s dollar price goes but whether it keeps losing ground to Bitcoin specifically. This article works through it from both directions: where Ethereum stands technically, what the ETH/BTC ratio actually measures and why it matters, the structural reasons Ether has underperformed, the case that the underperformance continues, the case that it reverses, what the analysts forecast, the specific conditions that would flip the ratio one way or the other, and three scenarios for both the ratio and the absolute price into year-end. The aim is to give a fair hearing to both sides, because this is a genuinely contested question on which thoughtful people disagree.

The forecasts here are information, not advice. And the framing to carry throughout is that Ether’s 2026 outcome has 2 layers: its dollar price, which depends heavily on the broad market, and its performance relative to Bitcoin, which depends on whether capital rotates back toward Ether or stays concentrated in the market leader. Both layers point to the same underlying question of whether Ethereum can reclaim the narrative momentum it has lost.

Where Ethereum stands right now

The technical condition of Ethereum is the weakest among the large-cap majors, and being honest about that is the starting point. Near $1,550, Ether trades below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, the last of which sits up near $2,317, meaning price is far beneath even its slowest-moving trend line. A death cross, the bearish crossover of shorter and longer averages, has completed, confirming the downtrend on the technical framework many traders use.

The relative strength index near 30 indicates oversold conditions and weak buying momentum, and the broader structure since the spring has been one of lower highs and lower lows, with sellers in control through a steep decline from the $2,000-plus range earlier in the year down to the current zone. The $1,500 to $1,600 area is the critical support, having acted as the 2026 floor, and below it the next levels are $1,450 and $1,400.

Sentiment is correspondingly grim. The Fear and Greed reading around 13 is a deeper extreme fear than Bitcoin’s, reflecting how thoroughly the market has soured on Ether specifically. The drawdown of roughly 68% from the August 2025 high near $4,950 is severe even by crypto standards and significantly worse than Bitcoin’s contemporaneous decline, which is the heart of the underperformance story. To improve the picture,

Ether needs, at minimum, to reclaim short-term resistance near $1,700 to $1,750, and a genuine trend change would require recovering the higher averages up toward $2,000 and then $2,317. Until then, the structure is bearish, and the burden of proof sits with buyers.

This is the uncomfortable backdrop against which the underperformance question must be answered: Ether is not merely down; it is down harder than Bitcoin, deeper in fear, and weaker on the charts, which is exactly why some see capitulation and opportunity while others see a structurally lagging asset with further to fall.

What the ETH/BTC ratio is telling us

To analyze underperformance properly, you have to understand the ETH/BTC ratio, because it strips out the broad market and isolates the question of Ether versus Bitcoin specifically. The ratio simply expresses Ether’s price in terms of Bitcoin rather than dollars, and it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin and falls when Ether lags. Right now it sits near multi-year lows, which is the precise, quantified statement of the problem: over an extended period, and especially through the 2025 to 2026 drawdown, Ether has lost value against Bitcoin, not just against the dollar. When both assets fall, but one falls more, the ratio captures the difference, and Ether’s roughly 68% drawdown against Bitcoin’s roughly 52% means Ether has shed a meaningful chunk of its value relative to the market leader.

Why does this matter beyond bookkeeping? The ETH/BTC ratio is one of the most-watched gauges in crypto because it functions as a barometer of risk appetite and capital rotation within the asset class. When the ratio rises, it typically signals that capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and into Ether and the broader altcoin complex, the classic risk-on, altcoin-season dynamic. When it falls, as now, it signals that capital is concentrating in Bitcoin, treating it as the safer, more institutionally endorsed crypto asset while shunning the higher-beta alternatives.

A ratio near multi-year lows therefore tells a story: the market, in its current risk-off and Bitcoin-dominated mood, has been choosing Bitcoin over Ether decisively. For the question of whether Ether underperforms again in 2026, the ratio is both the scoreboard and the leading indicator.

A continued decline or stagnation in the ratio means underperformance persists; a sustained turn upward would be the clearest sign that Ether is regaining ground. Everything that follows, the structural arguments and the catalysts, ultimately expresses itself through which way this ratio moves.

Why Ethereum has underperformed

Understanding the causes of Ether’s underperformance is essential to judging whether it continues, and several structural forces have converged against it. The 1st and arguably most important is the institutional bid for Bitcoin that Ether has not matched in kind.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and a wave of corporate Bitcoin treasuries have created sustained, price-insensitive demand that treats Bitcoin as digital gold and a primary reserve asset, a role with no clear Ether equivalent. While Ether has its own ETFs, the institutional narrative around Bitcoin as a macro reserve asset has been far more powerful, channeling the bulk of institutional crypto allocation toward Bitcoin and leaving Ether to compete for a smaller, more speculative pool of capital. In a risk-off market, that distinction is decisive: capital flows to the asset with the strongest institutional endorsement, which has been Bitcoin.

Breez, a Bitcoin-focused infrastructure company, has updated its developer toolkit with a capability to send stablecoins—specifically USDC and USDT—across more than 30 blockchain networks while using a Bitcoin balance as the only funding source.

The integration, described in an announcement shared with Cointelegraph, combines Lightning Network routing with automated conversion so users can effectively pay in stablecoins without separately acquiring or holding USDC/USDT on the destination chain.

Key takeaways

• Breez’s new SDK feature routes payments from a Bitcoin balance to USDC or USDT on over 30 networks without requiring users to hold stablecoins.
• The system uses the Lightning Network plus automated conversion to move value into stablecoins before delivering it to the recipient’s chosen chain.
• Breez says the approach is non-custodial and currently supports only outbound stablecoin payments.
• Lightning addresses and supported stablecoin networks are handled via “interoperability,” according to Breez.
• Liquidity providers named by Breez include Flashnet and Boltz, which perform the conversion and settlement on the target blockchain.

How Breez enables stablecoin payments from Bitcoin

In practice, developers using the Breez SDK can prompt users to enter a recipient’s wallet address. Breez’s tooling then determines the destination blockchain, computes a conversion route to USDC or USDT, and presents the user with the expected amount, network, and fees before confirming the payment.

Once confirmed, the payment is routed through liquidity providers—Breez specifically mentions Flashnet and Boltz. Those providers convert the sender’s Bitcoin into the selected stablecoin and deliver it to the recipient on the blockchain chosen by the receiver.

Breez CEO Roy Sheinfeld told Cointelegraph that the feature does not depend on USDT or USDC being issued on Lightning. Instead, he characterized the design as relying on interoperability that lets users “spend from a Bitcoin balance while recipients receive stablecoins” on supported networks.

Under this approach, the user continues to hold Bitcoin until initiating a payment. Recipients receive stablecoins on their preferred chain, and the sender is not required to manage separate stablecoin balances for different ecosystems.

Why this matters for developers and payment flows

Stablecoin distribution across many chains is often the hardest part of designing modern crypto payment experiences. Developers typically need to handle multiple destination networks, stablecoin balance management, and the user experience that comes with switching between payment assets.

Breez’s framing is that the new SDK functionality is meant to remove those frictions. It allows developers to add stablecoin payments without implementing separate integrations for each blockchain or forcing users to pre-position USDC/USDT across networks.

This distinction is especially relevant for applications that start from a Bitcoin-first user base—such as wallets, payment apps, or service providers that want stablecoin output for settlement, accounting, or recipient preferences, but can’t assume users will hold stablecoins.

Non-custodial scope and what’s next

Breez describes the feature as non-custodial. It also states that it is initially limited to outbound stablecoin payments, meaning users can send USDC/USDT to recipients on other networks, rather than receiving stablecoins that originate from external chains.

Support for receiving stablecoins from external blockchain networks is planned for a future release, according to Breez. For users and developers, that roadmap matters because it defines whether a single application can fully unify both sides of the payment experience—or if it will need to keep receiving logic separate until the bidirectional capability arrives.

Lightning and Bitcoin infrastructure keep broadening beyond simple transfers

While Breez’s stablecoin routing focuses on improving how Bitcoin can be used for payments, the launch lands in a broader trend: companies are extending Lightning Network capabilities into higher-value and more complex financial workflows.

Earlier this year, Secure Digital Markets completed a $1 million Bitcoin payment to Kraken over Lightning in under half a second, as Cointelegraph previously reported. The transaction was highlighted as an example of Lightning being tested for uses beyond small retail payments.

Lightning is also being embedded into business-oriented products. Voltage introduced a US dollar-settled revolving credit line that embeds business credit into Lightning payment flows, allowing repayments to be settled in US dollars or Bitcoin—an approach aimed at giving companies working capital options without requiring crypto holdings on their balance sheets.

Outside finance, event infrastructure is another direction. Cointelegraph reported that Satlantis launched a Bitcoin-native ticketing platform with embedded Lightning wallets, designed to let organizers sell tickets while accepting BTC alongside traditional payment methods.

And in the stablecoin ecosystem, Cointelegraph previously covered funding for technology aimed at stablecoin issuance and settlement on Bitcoin, noting a $5.2 million round backing Tether-supported Ark Labs.

Adoption signals continue to appear in network metrics. A February report from River estimated that Lightning surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume in late 2025, up from roughly $12 million in 2021, according to the figures River shared with Cointelegraph’s reporting.

River’s public post referenced by Cointelegraph showed Lightning Network transaction volume growth over time.

For investors and builders, the underlying message is consistent: Lightning is being positioned as more than a faster Bitcoin transfer rail. It is increasingly treated as an infrastructure component that can connect Bitcoin to stablecoin settlement and to application-specific payment requirements.

Going forward, the key thing to watch is whether Breez’s planned receiving support arrives as stated and how developers respond to the outbound-only limitation—because bidirectional stablecoin flows could meaningfully change how Bitcoin-first applications handle balances, reconciliation, and user onboarding across multiple chains.

British far-right activist Tommy Robinson — real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon — says he feels like a “wanker” after shilling his son’s “patriotic” Pump Fun-based cryptocurrency. 

Yaxley-Lennon promoted the Patriotic Bull token on his X account with an image of an AI-generated minotaur wearing tight jeans and standing in front of the Palace of Westminster. 

He then shared the token’s address and claimed his own Pump Fun account would use collected fees “to make the UK a better place.”

However, as he later clarified, this project wasn’t his doing. Indeed, the whole thing was his son’s idea. “I’ve not been hacked I’m just letting my son pump his crypto,” he said.

“I feel like a wanker writing these posts 😂😂 I am the patriotic bull 😂😂.”

The post upset numerous right-wing accounts, who described it as a “grift” and “crypto scam.”

One such account called him the “lowest form of pond scum imaginable,” while another claimed they would be unfollowing him for “pumping sloppy crypto scams” while the country is supposedly “being decimated.”

Yaxley-Lennon’s Pump Fun account has received tokens from three different, but similarly named, “The Patriotic Bull” tokens.

The Pump Fun account that created the token and shared Yaxley-Lennon’s X account, “Carefulsquid838, is presumably run by his son, Spencer Yaxley-Lennon.

Who is Tommy Robinson’s son? 

Spencer Yaxley-Lennon has previously been spotted sharing posts on Instagram in which he boasts about a luxurious lifestyle of private jets and designer clothes. 

The account was later tweaked from public to private once his posts began to circulate. Spencer’s Instagram promotes FX trading, and Trade Informer reports that his promotions link to the website Ghost Trades.

This site relies on offshore broker “Vantage Markets” for its trading, which has also been promoted by Yaxley-Lennon Senior. 

Read more: Nigel Farage accused of undervaluing Christopher Harborne jet loan by $666K

Spencer’s online activity appears to contradict his father’s image of himself as a struggling activist in need of financial support.

In 2018, Stephen Yaxley-Lennon received £20,000 ($26,500) worth of BTC donations while in prison for contempt of court. 

In 2022, court documents revealed that he was receiving anywhere between £1,000 ($1,300)and £4,000 ($5,300) a month from supporters while also gambling £100,000 ($132,600) in casinos and online.  

More recently, his self-proclaimed journalism firm, Urban Scoop, called for donations so that it could re-equip its team and expand operations.

He then shared footage of himself on holiday. 

UK right-wing backed by tech trillionaires and billionaires

The political activist has been emboldened by the likes of Tesla trillionaire Elon Musk, who frequently supports Stephen Yaxley-Lennon’s posts on X. Earlier this month, Yaxley-Lennon met up with Musk’s father, Errol, in Russia. 

Yaxley-Lennon claims “Russia is not the enemy of Britain.” The hostile nation often covertly stirs up right-wing UK citizens and is responsible for a crypto-paying sabotage network that led to the fire bombing of property owned by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.  

Musk also supports Restore UK and Rupert Lowe. The right-wing member of Parliament formed the party after he was suspended from Reform UK following a dispute with its leader Nigel Farage and chairman Zia Yusuf. 

Farage and his party, meanwhile, are backed by Christopher Harborne, a 12% shareholder in multi-billion-dollar stablecoin firm Tether. 

He has given the party £25 million ($33 million) over the years, and personally gave Farage another £5 million ($6.6 million) before his reentry into politics in 2024. This sum was kept a secret until recently, and is now being probed by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner.

Key takeaways:

• An extreme Bitcoin put-call options imbalance and a 19% delta skew reveal heavy hedging against downside price swings.
• Strategy’s cash hoard eases short-term debt fears but does not hold back a broader capital rotation into tech stocks.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $61,000 mark since Thursday, despite optimism fueled by lower crude oil prices following the US and Iran’s 60-day ceasefire agreement. Demand for downside Bitcoin price protection jumped to unusually high levels, prompting traders to question whether $55,000 is the next target.

Deribit Bitcoin options premium put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas

The premium paid on Bitcoin put (sell) options on Deribit totaled $115 million on Friday, 7 times the $16 million paid on call (buy) options. The imbalance was the highest in over 12 months, signaling extremely low demand from bulls. However, such data does not necessarily signal conviction from bears.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew stood at 19% on Monday, meaning market makers are unwilling to hold downside price exposure. This setup hints at fear, although that has been the norm for the past 4 weeks. Data aligns with growing demand for bearish hedging as Bitcoin price struggles to sustain levels above $60,000.

Bitcoin’s weakness can be partially pinned to investors’ discomfort with MicroStrategy (MSTR US) ability to pay dividends and debt maturing in 2027. The company reacted on Monday by announcing an additional $1.2 billion in cash from recent share sales and setting aside $1.25 billion in Bitcoin for eventual sale.

The measures taken by Strategy ease some short-term concerns but also create anxiety about Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. Even if no sales occur over the next couple of months, bears are more comfortable knowing that Strategy has no incentives to issue MSTR shares given the current 17 months of dividend coverage.

Related: Grayscale’s Pandl says Strategy should sell $3B Bitcoin to restore confidence

Rotation from Bitcoin and gold into semiconductor stocks 

In contrast to Bitcoin investors’ pessimism, momentum in the US stock market has shifted favorably after inflationary pressure eased, with crude oil prices dropping to their lowest levels in 4 months. Additionally, a Goldman Sachs report projected 22% annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, easing concerns about excessive valuations.

Source: X/KobeissiLetter

Retail investors appear to be rotating out of gold and Bitcoin into semiconductor stocks, according to ‘The Kobeissi Letter’ analysis. Data collected by Bloomberg has shown over $20 billion in cumulative inflows in semiconductor exchange-traded funds (ETFs), triggering an 81% rally in iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX US) and 60% gains in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds weekly net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The 7 consecutive weeks of net outflows from the US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have shattered bulls’ hopes of a strong bounce from the $58,050 lows on June 25. Regardless of whether the sell-off can be attributed to the rotation into tech stocks, sentiment is unlikely to improve while Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see strong net outflows.

A retest of $55,000 should not be dismissed, but the increased demand for downside hedging in Bitcoin options should not be interpreted as growing confidence among bears.

TLDR:

• XRP Ledger Foundation and VS1 Finance are building an open-source compliant lending reference application for XRPL.
• The project combines Credentials, Permissioned Domains, Vaults and Lending Protocol into one institutional framework.
• Developers will be free to fork, study and extend the reference application for regulated lending use cases.
• The initiative focuses on permissioned lending infrastructure designed for institutions operating on XRP Ledger.

The XRP Ledger Foundation has partnered with VS1 Finance to develop an open-source reference application for compliant lending on the XRP Ledger. The initiative focuses on regulated lending by combining native XRP Ledger features with permissioned access controls. 

The project aims to provide developers with a reusable framework for building institutional lending products. It also highlights the network’s growing focus on compliance-ready blockchain infrastructure for financial markets.

XRP Ledger Foundation expands compliant lending infrastructure on XRP Ledger

The new application will use several native XRP Ledger building blocks designed for regulated financial activity. These include Credentials, Permissioned Domains, Single Asset Vaults, and the Lending Protocol.

According to the XRP Ledger Foundation’s announcement on X, the application will serve as an open-source reference implementation rather than a closed commercial product. Developers will be able to examine its architecture and adapt it for their own use cases.

The framework targets permissioned lending environments where participants must satisfy compliance requirements before accessing financial services. That approach allows institutions to operate within predefined identity and authorization rules.

The project reflects continued development around institutional blockchain infrastructure. Instead of introducing new protocol features, the application combines existing XRP Ledger primitives into a practical lending workflow.

XRP Ledger lending app targets institutional crypto finance

VS1 Finance said the collaboration focuses on creating infrastructure that institutions can readily adopt for compliant capital deployment. The company stated on X that permissioned lending can help bridge traditional financial firms with blockchain-based markets.

Rather than limiting access to a single platform, the partners intend to publish the application as open source. Development teams will have the option to fork, modify, or extend the codebase for different lending products.

The announcement places strong emphasis on transparency and ecosystem growth. Open-source reference applications often reduce development time by providing tested implementation examples for builders across the network.

Neither organization disclosed a launch date or technical roadmap alongside the announcement. The initial statements instead centered on the application’s design goals and its role within the broader XRP Ledger ecosystem.

The collaboration arrives as blockchain networks continue developing compliance-focused infrastructure for regulated financial institutions. By combining permissioned access with native lending components, the project seeks to provide a standardized foundation for future XRP 

Ledger lending applications, according to updates shared separately by both the XRP Ledger Foundation and VS1 Finance on X.

The crypto market enters the final stretch of the month in a perilous position with bitcoin BTC$60,277.09 still below $60,000 and ether (ETH) less than $1,600.

The bitcoin price has now lost more than 50% of its value since October’s record high, with analysts suggesting that more downside is on the cards over the coming months.

On Monday, the largest cryptocurrency is marginally in the black, rising by 0.6% since midnight UTC to $59,800 despite the broader market structure and chart formation skewing bearish.

Solana (SOL) has recovered after tumbling to its lowest point since late 2023 early this month. It has advanced by more than 13% since Thursday and 2% since midnight.

U.S. equities rose overnight as Nasdaq 100 futures traded up 1% while S&P 500 futures added 0.75%. Both indexes remain in a downtrend since setting record highs on June 15.

Derivatives positioning

• Over $200 million in futures positions have been forcibly closed, or liquidated, by exchanges in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for the bulk of the amount.
• There are signs of a turnaround over the past four hours: the nearly $20 million in liquidations included $13 million in shorts. That shows how BTC’s bounce to $60,000 caught some bears off guard.
• BTC’s futures market offers little excitement. Open interest (OI) is back in ranges seen earlier this month, erasing the minor pop to 775K BTC seen on Friday. Traders seem less willing to take on risk.
• The same is true for ether, where OI remains locked at around 14.2 million ETH.
• Open interest positioning in SOL feels relatively elevated at 72.70 million SOL, just short of the record high of over 76 million SOL set on June 24. That suggests potential for more volatility in Solana’s native token.
• AVAX rose over 5% last week, decoupling from market leader BTC’s weakness. But that hasn’t been enough to draw traders into leveraged bets. OI continues to decline, standing at 38.07 million tokens, the lowest since April 1. That raises questions about the sustainability of the price gains.
• The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains bearish. Most top 25 tokens, except TRX, XMR and ZEC, show negative values, a sign that bears are leading price action by selling via market orders rather than limit orders.
• Volatility indexes, though, offer some good news. The BVIV, which tracks BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, dropped 5% to 47% today, pausing its two-week upswing. That suggests a renewed bet on market calm, typically a feature of grinding upswings in spot prices.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias for puts, or downside protection. In BTC’s case, the $60,000 put now has notional open interest of nearly $1 billion, almost rivaling the $1.11 billion sitting in the $80,000 call. These two have been the key option levels for at least two months. Should prices slide below $60,000, the next big options cluster is at $50,000, with notional OI of $712 million.
• Over the weekend, traders sold strangles in the July 10 expiry on HYPE options on the decentralized platform Derive, according to data tracked by Laevitas. Shorting a strangle is a bet on price consolidation.

Token talk

• The altcoin market is little changed, trading in line with the biggest cryptocurrencies as traders appear apathetic toward more speculative assets until bitcoin confirms its next move.
• Privacy coins dash (DASH) and zcash (ZEC) are up by more than 2% on Monday. The move comes after both assets lost between 18% and 30% in the past two weeks alone, suggesting it is more of a relief rally than a meaningful recovery.
• PUMP$0.001429 lost 1.5% since midnight, joining AI token FET in the red.
• CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 49/100, a level it has held for most of June as investors focus on bitcoin’s next move.

The path of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, a bill intended to establish comprehensive guidelines for cryptocurrency regulation, remains uncertain with the US Congress set to break for another state work period in a matter of weeks.

Since passage in the US House of Representatives in July 2025, the CLARITY Act has faced several hurdles advancing in Congress, from industry pushback on stablecoin rewards to lawmakers’ concerns about ethics. The bill passed the Senate Agriculture Committee in January and the Senate Banking Committee in May along party lines, setting it up for consideration in the full chamber.

However, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday cancelled the signing ceremony for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a housing bill that received bipartisan support in both chambers and contained a ban on a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Trump said that he would not sign the bill until Republicans in Congress passed the SAVE America Act, legislation requiring voters to provide proof of US citizenship in person to register, adding in March that he would “not sign other bills” until it was passed.

The move by the president leaves the future of the CLARITY Act in doubt despite earlier statements signaling he supported the bill. If Trump vetoes the legislation, Congress could override him with a two-thirds majority vote in both chambers. According to the US Constitution, if a president doesn’t sign or veto a bill within 10 days while Congress is in session, the bill automatically becomes law.

Related: Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds to 50% as Senate floor time narrows

On Monday, Republican leaders in the Senate, including banking committee chair Tim Scott and majority leader John Thune, said that they were pushing for the chamber to pass CLARITY in July. Lawmakers are scheduled to be out of Washington, DC and on state work periods until July 13, giving them four weeks to address the bill before a monthlong state work period in August.

Source: Senator Tim Scott

“We’ve been negotiating on the CLARITY Act hardcore since last Labor Day, and it’s been an arduous process,” said Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s proponents, in a Fox Business interview last week, adding:

“We’re still working a little bit on DeFi, we’re working [on] illicit finance, we’re working a little bit on ethics [..] We’re finally to the point where we’re going to put out the text over the July 4th, and give people one last really thorough look at the bill, and then we’re moving in July.” 

What happens if lawmakers face more delays on CLARITY?

Republicans hold a slim majority in the US Senate, where they will need some support from Democrats should they hold a vote on CLARITY next month. Many Democratic lawmakers have been pushing for ethics provisions in the bill, citing the Trump family’s ties to the crypto industry through the president’s memecoin and his sons’ involvement in the World Liberty Financial platform and a Bitcoin mining company.

Should Republicans not meet the 60-vote threshold in the Senate before August, many experts expect that lawmakers dealing with reelection campaigns could delay the passage of CLARITY, potentially pushing the legislation to the next session of Congress in 2027.

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