Bitcoin (BTC) struggled near $60,000 around Monday’s Wall Street open as bulls increasingly risked a support/resistance flip.

Key points:

• Bitcoin bulls face an uphill struggle to flip $60,000 back to support, even as US stocks see fresh upside.
• Iran peace hopes fuel a more positive risk-asset mood, but analysis says that Bitcoin buyers “lack conviction.”
• Market participants are “defensive” around current price action.

US-Iran meeting announcement sends stocks higher

Data from TradingView showed an ongoing battle to regain control of $60,000, with BTC price strength again failing to keep pace with US stocks.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both started the week in the green amid renewed optimism of rescuing the US-Iran peace deal.

In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump wrote that Iran had “requested a meeting,” which would take place in Doha, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday.

S&P 500 four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting on the latest events, trading company QCP Capital nonetheless cautioned over the potential for oil prices to rebound — a key potential headwind for crypto.

“While both countries appear to have agreed to stand down for now, the situation remains uncertain. That said, oil prices have remained largely stable in the low $70s, suggesting cautious optimism that tensions may ease,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis. 

“However, this relatively muted market reaction also leaves significant upside risk for oil prices should supply recovery prove slower than expected.”

CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On Friday, WTI crude fell below $68 per barrel for the first time since early March, but was back above the $70 mark at the time of writing.

“U.S. markets are also set to be closed on Friday, while the situation between the U.S. and Iran remains fluid, leaving volatility likely to stay elevated, partly driven by thinner liquidity conditions, similar to what we saw over the past weekend,” QCP added.

Bitcoin needs more “conviction” from buyers

Bitcoin market participants thus sat on the sidelines as “choppy” price moves defined low-time-frame market action.

Related: BTC price RSI prints key 2026 signal: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Chopping around in this range at the previous June lows. The ~$60K region keeps capping price as we have some marginally higher low wicks below,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X analysis. 

“The longer price spends moving around in this region, the bigger the following move upon a range break will be. Eyes on $58K & $61K.”

BTC/USDT one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

In its latest Market Pulse bulletin, onchain analytics platform Glassnode said that buyers “have so far lacked the conviction required to establish a sustained recovery, leaving price range-bound near local lows.”

“Beneath the surface, the market remains in a phase of structural adjustment as capital continues to contract and participants adopt a more defensive posture,” it reported. 

“Spot markets are still experiencing persistent net selling despite an increase in trading activity, suggesting that available liquidity is being used primarily to distribute rather than accumulate Bitcoin at current prices.”

Bitcoin price momentum data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

While noting “more balanced” onchain data, Glassnode added that a shift toward supply ownership by more speculative investors increased the potential for price volatility.

“Taken together, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing around the $60K region, but with spot order flow, derivatives positioning, and institutional demand all remaining defensive, a sustained recovery is likely to require a meaningful return of buyer conviction,” it concluded.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the largest Ethereum treasury company, bought 27,084 ether (ETH) last week, extending its accumulation streak despite another slide in crypto prices.

The purchase, worth roughly $43 million based on ETH’s current price of around $1,580, lifted Bitmine’s holdings to 5.7 million ETH, according to a Monday company update. The stash is worth about $8.9 billion and represents roughly 4.7% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, nearing the firm’s 5% goal.

The company also held 206 bitcoin, $555 million in cash and marketable securities and stakes in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings, bringing total crypto, cash and investment holdings to $9.8 billion.

The latest acquisition was the smallest purchase since early May, down from 52,203 ETH the previous week and well below the 126,971 ETH batch earlier this month, suggesting the company is dialing back its buying pace after months of aggressive accumulation. Bitmine nevertheless remains one of the few large digital asset treasury firms still consistently adding to its crypto holdings while many peers have paused purchases amid the market downturn.

Crypto weakness

Chairman Thomas “Tom” Lee pointed to quarter-end rebalancing behind the latest bout of weakness in crypto markets with investors cutting their losses as we enter the second-half of the year.

Prediction-market operators have increasingly moved to own more of their trading infrastructure, setting the stage for an acquisition wave across crypto exchanges, sportsbooks, brokerages and trading venues, according to Bernstein.

According to a research report published by Bernstein on Monday, the sector is entering a period of operational consolidation as consumer-facing platforms bring together distribution, brokerage, exchange and clearing functions under one roof instead of relying on outside providers.

The analysts wrote that “every consumer platform that matters has merged the front and back end of the prediction-market stack,” arguing that businesses once separated across financial trading, crypto and sports betting are now competing within the same market.

Consumer platforms are taking control of trading infrastructure

Recent product launches and acquisitions illustrate the trend outlined by Bernstein. Robinhood now routes major FIFA World Cup prediction contracts through Rothera, the exchange it jointly owns with Susquehanna, while DraftKings has introduced DKeX and redirected trading volume away from infrastructure supplied by CME and Crypto.com.

Coinbase has also expanded its presence by acquiring The Clearing Company and launching its own event contracts, a move Bernstein cited as another example of platforms assembling every part of the prediction-market business.

Instead of paying third parties for execution, clearing or exchange services, companies that own the full trading stack can keep more of the fees generated by customer activity. Bernstein said acquisitions may therefore become the fastest way for platforms to obtain licenses, reach new users or add missing infrastructure rather than building those capabilities internally.

Outside the crypto sector, traditional financial exchanges have also begun entering the market. Last week, Cboe Global Markets introduced Cboe Predicts, launching binary option contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP). Cboe said the products operate as security options under the existing U.S. regulatory framework for listed options, allowing traders to take yes-or-no positions on where the index finishes.

Large technology companies are also exploring the space. Meta has reportedly assembled a team to develop Arena, a prediction-market application expected to compete with platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi. According to reports, Arena will rely on a points-based system similar to video games instead of real-money wagering.

Regulatory disputes could slow dealmaking

While Bernstein sees economic incentives for consolidation, the firm warned that regulation remains one of the biggest obstacles to larger transactions.

The report said combinations involving crypto exchanges, brokerages, sportsbooks and derivatives venues could improve profitability by reducing dependence on external providers.

At the same time, Bernstein cautioned that such deals may attract antitrust scrutiny while intensifying debate over whether sports event contracts should be treated as financial derivatives or gambling products.

Regulatory disagreements are already emerging across the U.S. Bernstein noted that Minnesota has enacted what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission described as the first outright ban on prediction markets, while Illinois has passed legislation requiring platforms to obtain a state license before offering sports event contracts.

Kalshi has challenged both measures, arguing that exchanges regulated by the CFTC fall under the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction rather than state gambling authorities.

According to Bernstein, the commercial logic behind consolidation remains intact, but many of the largest acquisitions may prove difficult to complete until courts and regulators establish where federal derivatives oversight ends and state gambling regulation begins.

Ethena said its yield-generating “synthetic dollar” token will be integrated into BlackRock’s (BLK) Aladdin risk management platform as the crypto protocol is deepening its relationship with traditional finance firms.

The Monday announcement sent Ethena’s governance token ENA (ENA) up about 8% on the day as investors welcomed another high-profile institutional partnership.

Aladdin is BlackRock’s portfolio construction and risk management platform used by banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers overseeing more than $20 trillion in combined assets.

Ethena also said BlackRock’s tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, will serve as the primary reserve asset for a forthcoming white-label product.

The firms also unveiled a $100 million liquidity facility that will allow eligible holders of BlackRock’s tokenized Treasury fund, BUIDL, to exchange their holdings for USDC, USDtb and other supported stablecoins outside traditional market hours, and convert those assets back into BUIDL.

“We believe stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets to be inextricably linked,” Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, said in a statement. “This liquidity facility enables a level of frictionless interoperability that is core to the unique utility that tokenizing treasury funds makes possible.”

The growth case rests on a simple dynamic: as bitcoin ownership broadens and prices rise, holders increasingly want to borrow against appreciated collateral for tax efficiency, working capital or lifestyle needs, while lenders gain comfort underwriting overcollateralized loans secured by a highly liquid asset.

The bitcoin lending industry was reshaped by the failures of Celsius, BlockFi, and Genesis during the 2022–2023 crypto credit crisis. While each firm had different business models, they shared common vulnerabilities: maturity mismatches, excessive leverage, concentrated counterparty exposure and the rehypothecation of customer assets.

Their collapses underscored the importance of conservative underwriting, transparent risk management, and fully collateralized lending-principles that have become the foundation of the next generation of BTC-backed lenders, the SVB report said.

Landmark transactions, including Ledn’s $188 million asset-backed security, the first bitcoin-collateralized deal to receive an investment-grade rating from a Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Organization, underscore growing confidence in BTC-backed credit structures, according to SVB.

While bitcoin-backed loan rates still generally range from 7.5% to 16% annual percentage rate (APR), well above comparable traditional financing, SVB expects increased participation from banks and private credit funds to narrow spreads over time. Early signs are already emerging, including Strike’s recently announced 7.5% rate on term loans larger than $5 million, backed by a $2.1 billion credit facility from Tether.

“This is the first time that seized crypto assets have actually been handed over to state management,” the statement reads. The funds came from wallets controlled by a member of an alleged international hacker group, the office said.

However, fund management involves custody of the digital assets, not ownership. The USDT sits in a wallet ARMA controls but has not been formally confiscated, a step that requires a conviction. ARMA already manages seized homes and cars, yet has no record of taking crypto onto its books.

Investigators accused the group of attacking people and companies in Europe and the U.S., stealing private data, demanding ransoms and laundering proceeds in Ukraine through real estate, cars and other high-value property.

Four suspects, including the alleged organizer, have been detained and remain in custody, the statement adds, and have not yet been convicted. Investigators estimate the damage from the group’s activities at more than $100 million.

Authorities have so far seized assets worth over $11.1 million, including homes, apartments, cars, $1 million in cash and virtual assets equal to more than $8.3 million.