Key takeaways

• Ethereum fell 0.7% as annual US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%.
• Polymarket traders assigned a 62% probability to a rate hike at the next Fed meeting.
• ETH is testing support at $2,431 and $2,405, with resistance near $2,545.

Ethereum (ETH) traded 0.7% lower on Friday as it attempted to recover from selling pressure triggered by stronger US producer inflation data.

The hotter annual inflation reading increased expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, creating a challenging environment for risk assets. Although Ethereum remains above its major moving averages, retail selling, hesitant derivatives traders, and slowing institutional demand could limit its near-term recovery.

US producer inflation rises to 5.4%

The US Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% in August, matching market expectations after a revised 0.1% gain in July.

On an annual basis, producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%. Energy prices contributed significantly to the increase, rising 4.2% amid higher oil prices. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, also advanced 0.4% during the month.

The data preceded Friday’s Consumer Price Index report, another potential catalyst for expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting.

Prediction-market data from Polymarket showed traders assigning a 62% probability to an interest-rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting. The estimated likelihood of a hike by October stood at 71%.

Markets also increasingly expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to begin his tenure with a rate increase, marking a sharp shift from earlier policy expectations.

Higher rates could pressure Ethereum by tightening financial conditions and increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets. They could also discourage the leveraged trading and speculative activity that often support cryptocurrency rallies.

Despite the difficult macroeconomic backdrop, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds registered $34.75 million in net inflows on Wednesday.

The positive result offset the $24 million withdrawn on Tuesday and indicated that some institutional investors continued accumulating ETH during its two-week consolidation.

However, weekly ETF demand has slowed. The products attracted $218.4 million last week, down sharply from the yearly high of $824 million recorded during the preceding week.

This slowdown suggests institutional interest remains positive but has lost momentum.

Retail investors sold a combined 307,000 ETH last week, significantly exceeding the 82,000 ETH accumulated by whales.

The imbalance shows that smaller holders have taken a more cautious approach following Ethereum’s recovery in late August. Persistent retail distribution could increase the available supply and limit attempts to push the price higher.

Ethereum’s price has also risen faster than futures open interest. The divergence suggests leveraged long traders remain reluctant to commit substantial fresh capital to the recovery.

Ethereum tests 20-day EMA and $2,431 support

Ethereum is testing horizontal support near $2,431 and its 20-day exponential moving average around $2,405.

Despite the pullback, ETH remains comfortably above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, which are clustered between approximately $2,223 and $2,256. This positioning keeps the broader uptrend intact.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 59, maintaining a modest bullish tilt while showing that momentum has cooled. The Stochastic Oscillator is also moving toward its midpoint, indicating moderation rather than a confirmed bearish reversal.

If Ethereum rebounds, its first major resistance sits near $2,545. A decisive close above this level could expose the next barriers at $2,626 and $2,787.

On the downside, losing $2,405 and $2,431 would shift attention to the moving-average support cluster between $2,223 and $2,256. Further support lies at $2,172, followed by the broader trend floors at $1,961 and $1,810.

A sequence of daily closes above the overhead resistance levels would restore stronger bullish momentum and reopen the path toward new local highs.

Key takeaways

• Dogecoin is attempting to recover after two consecutive sessions of roughly 3% losses.
• Bitwise will end trading in its BWOW Dogecoin ETF on October 14.
• A break below $0.0801 could send DOGE toward $0.0745 and potentially $0.0673.
• Dogecoin must reclaim the $0.0845–$0.0904 resistance region to improve its outlook.

Dogecoin (DOGE) edged higher on Friday following two consecutive sessions of losses of approximately 3%.

Despite the modest recovery, DOGE retains a bearish near-term outlook as institutional demand weakens and momentum indicators point to sustained selling pressure. 

The $0.0800 region is now critical, with a breakdown potentially exposing the meme coin to significantly lower support levels.

Bitwise announces closure of Dogecoin ETF

Bitwise announced Thursday that it will liquidate its Dogecoin exchange-traded fund, BWOW, as part of an effort to streamline its product lineup and respond to changing investor demand.

The fund’s final trading day is scheduled for October 14, after which it will cease operations and begin converting its DOGE holdings into cash.

Bitwise expects to complete the liquidation on October 22 and distribute the remaining cash to shareholders.

BWOW held approximately $687,730 in net assets as of Thursday, according to SoSoValue.

The conversion of its holdings during the liquidation process could add modest selling pressure to Dogecoin, although the fund is considerably smaller than other DOGE-focused investment products.

Grayscale’s GDOG ETF holds approximately $8.61 million, while the 21Shares TDOG fund manages around $2.53 million.

The difference highlights BWOW’s relatively limited scale and may explain Bitwise’s decision to remove the fund from its product range.

Dogecoin trades below key moving averages

Dogecoin traded slightly above $0.0800 at the time of writing on Friday but remained below several important technical indicators.

DOGE sits beneath its 100-period EMA at $0.0857 and its 50-period EMA at $0.0870 on the four-hour chart. Trading below both indicators reinforces the token’s bearish short-term structure.

The meme coin is also testing its 200-period EMA near $0.0827, which currently acts as immediate dynamic support.

A confirmed move below the 200-period EMA could push Dogecoin toward the recent low at $0.0801.

If buyers fail to defend that psychological support zone, the next downside target would be the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $0.0745. A more substantial correction could bring the 161.8% extension near $0.0673 into focus.

A decline from $0.0801 to $0.0673 would represent a drop of approximately 16%.

Dogecoin’s Relative Strength Index stands near 35 on the four-hour chart, placing it just above oversold territory.

The low reading reflects significant bearish momentum but also suggests that selling may be approaching exhaustion. Still, the indicator has not produced a confirmed reversal signal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator continues to decline below its zero line, reinforcing the view that downside pressure remains dominant.

For Dogecoin to begin a meaningful recovery, it must first break above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0845.

The next resistance levels sit at the 100-period EMA near $0.0857 and the 50-period EMA at $0.0870. A stronger barrier awaits around $0.0904, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

A sustained close above $0.0904 would weaken the bearish outlook. Until then, DOGE remains vulnerable to a breakdown below $0.0800.

Silver is trading near $64, rebounding sharply from earlier 2026 weakness that had left the metal down roughly 14.8% year-to-date, even as it remains up over 61% on a trailing twelve-month basis. The recent bounce has been driven by a genuinely tangled mix of forces: US-Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have kept safe-haven demand elevated, even as mixed signals from Tehran about a possible safe shipping route inject fresh uncertainty into the picture.

The Fed side of the story adds further complexity. Friday’s blowout jobs report, 162,000 payrolls against a roughly 53,000 consensus, pushed September rate-hike odds towards 60%, initially pressuring precious metals before silver clawed back most of that move. Thursday’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index, up 5.4% year-over-year and a tenth above forecast, driven largely by a 4.2% surge in energy costs tied to the ongoing conflict, has only reinforced the case for continued Fed vigilance.

Underneath it all, silver’s gold/silver ratio near 65.8 suggests the metal has outpaced gold’s own recent strength, a signal some traders read as silver playing catch-up after a difficult start to the year, though renewed dollar weakness ahead of next week’s inflation data remains the more immediate driver to watch.

Technical Analysis of XAG/USD

As the XAG/USD chart shows, silver has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since late July, with a descending trendline from the 71.066 highs converging with an ascending trendline off the 56.536 low, the origin of this entire rally. Price is now testing the confluence of this ascending trendline, the intermediate 62.50–63.00 support zone, and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 63.80.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend this trendline-support-Fibonacci confluence, the broader triangle structure remains intact. A push back above the 0.382 retracement and 200-period EMA, both near 65.13–65.52, would open the path towards a retest of the 71.066 highs, the origin of the entire correction.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a confirmed break below the ascending trendline and the 0.5 retracement would signal that the correction has real legs, exposing the 0.618 level near 62.086, with a deeper slide risking a fuller retest of the major 56–57 support that launched the entire medium-term rally.

With price sitting right at the intersection of a multi-week trendline, a key support zone, and a critical Fibonacci level, silver’s next move looks set to determine whether this consolidation resolves higher towards fresh multi-year highs, or whether the broader rally is finally due for a deeper correction.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.