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What Bull Market? Bitcoin Closes 4 Consecutive Months in the Red

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Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass


The last time BTC was so deep in the red monthly was during the 2018 bear market.

It’s hard to imagine now that just a few months ago, bitcoin was riding high, investors were hopeful about ‘Uptober,’ and the bulls dominated the market.

In that not-so-distant past, the cryptocurrency was trading confidently within a six-digit price territory, and had just printed a new all-time high above $126,000. The community was full of new predictions about $150,000 or $200,000 by the end of the year, based on historical performances.

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The Monthly Closures in Red

The reality, though, was different. And brutal. Instead of going to those levels, BTC nosedived on October 10/11 in a $19B-wipeout, and the trend turned for the worse as the cryptocurrency was never actually able to recover from that crash. In fact, bitcoin ended 2025 in the red for the first time in a post-halving year.

2026 began with more hopes of a rebound and a renewed run, but they were halted mid-month when BTC was stopped at $95,000 and driven south hard. It was first pushed below $90,000, but that was just the beginning as the losses kept coming.

It dumped to $81,000 during last week, bounced off to $84,000, only to be rejected on Saturday. In the span of just several hours, bitcoin’s calamity worsened, and it slumped to roughly $75,000, leaving billions worth of liquidations. This meant that it had lost $20,000 in less than two weeks.

Data from CoinGlass shows that bitcoin closed January with a 10.17% loss, even though it rebounded slightly from that low. This made it the fourth consecutive month closed in the red and the worst since November.

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Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass

What Bull Market?

Most crypto analysts have been split since October on whether the ongoing market phase is actually a bull market. But the data from above clearly demonstrates that BTC’s behavior is more in line with how it performs during bear cycles. After all, the last time it had four or more consecutive months in the red was at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.

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At the time, BTC was digging new lows time and time again, before it finally bottomed in January after the sixth month in the red in a row. If history is to repeat itself now, the cryptocurrency has more room for losses before it finally stages a notable recovery as it did seven years ago.

Nevertheless, the light at the end of the tunnel shows that bitcoin might be due for a more favorable Q2 and Q3 if we rely on history. If we don’t, good news could come as soon as February, as most analysts agree that the four-year cycle has been broken and BTC now operates in a different manner.

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Crypto World

NYSE Lifts Crypto Options Cap Across 11 BTC and ETH ETFs

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Crypto Breaking News

Two NYSE-affiliated venues have scrapped the 25,000-contract cap on options tied to 11 crypto ETF options, a move the exchanges filed with the Federal Register on March 10. The Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged the rule alterations on Sunday by waiving the standard 30-day waiting period, meaning the changes are now in effect. The initiative removes price-discovery restrictions and the position-limit cap that had governed crypto ETF options since their November 2024 debut.

The policy shift ushers crypto ETF options closer to the regime applied to other commodity ETFs, potentially boosting institutional trading flexibility, liquidity, and ease of entry and exit. The development also paves the way for FLEX options—customizable terms such as non-standard strike prices, expiration dates, and exercise styles—to be applied to crypto ETF options.

Among the 11 crypto ETF options affected are major listings from BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). The notice also covers Bitcoin and Ether ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale, expanding a footprint that has grown since the initial option-limits regime was put in place.

In parallel, the SEC’s acknowledgment of the rule changes adds a note of continuity to an ongoing regulatory arc around crypto ETF products. The latest action follows a July decision that removed the 25,000-contract limit for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), signaling a broader regulatory openness to easing constraints on crypto-derived derivatives.

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Beyond the NYSE venues, another development looms: Nasdaq’s options arm, Nasdaq International Securities Exchange, has filed to raise the contract position limit for BlackRock’s IBIT to 1 million. That proposal remains under review by the SEC as of a February 27 notice, underscoring an industry-wide interest in expanding capacity for crypto-based hedging and trading instruments.

The shift comes against a backdrop of heightened attention to liquidity and transparency in crypto markets, with exchanges and issuers seeking to improve price discovery and provide more robust hedging tools for institutional participants. While the core economics of crypto ETFs and their options remain subject to market forces, removing artificial caps can enhance capital efficiency for institutions, market-makers, and sophisticated retail participants alike.

Key takeaways

  • The NYSE Arca and NYSE American have removed the 25,000-contract limit and price-discovery restrictions on options linked to 11 crypto ETF options, effective after SEC’s waiver of the standard 30-day waiting period.
  • The change brings crypto ETF options closer to the handling of traditional commodity ETF options and enables FLEX options with customizable terms.
  • 11 crypto ETF options are affected, including BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and ARK’s ARKB, with Bitwise and Grayscale’s BTC-related offerings also covered.
  • The development follows earlier regulatory moves, including the SEC’s July decision to remove the 25,000-contract cap for GBTC, signaling a gradual easing of previous constraints.
  • Nasdaq ISE is seeking to lift its own cap for IBIT to 1 million contracts, a proposal still under SEC review as of late February.

Regulatory steps and what changed

NYSE Arca Inc. and NYSE American LLC filed three rule changes with the Federal Register on March 10 to eliminate the 25,000-contract position limit and price-discovery restrictions on options tied to 11 crypto ETF products listed on their exchanges. The actions mark a notable shift from the framework established when crypto ETF options first began trading in November 2024, when broad caps were designed to curb market manipulation and volatility.

The SEC’s decision to waive the usual 30-day waiting period means the amendments are now in effect. This waiver eliminates a standard cooling-off period that typically gives market participants time to react to regulatory changes, accelerating the practical impact of the rules for exchanges, brokers, and traders.

From a structural perspective, the moves align crypto ETF options with the broader approach applied to commodity ETF options, potentially improving liquidity by enabling more complete hedging and arb opportunities. The removal of the cap also dovetails with a push to offer more flexible trading tools, including FLEX options, which permit non-standard strike prices and expiration dates and more diverse exercise styles.

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Which products are affected and why it matters

While the notice does not list every instrument in detail, it confirms that 11 crypto ETF options are covered. The set includes high-profile offerings from BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK, notably the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). The scope also extends to Bitcoin- and Ether-focused ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale, underscoring a broadening ensemble of crypto-linked options now subject to a more permissive regime.

For investors, the implications are tangible. Fewer constraints on contract size and governance around price discovery can translate into deeper liquidity and more efficient entry and exit for complex hedging strategies. Market-makers gain additional flexibility in pricing and risk management, which could reduce spreads and improve execution quality in volatile periods. Traders who rely on precise volatility hedges or sophisticated spreads may find the availability of FLEX options particularly advantageous, enabling strategies that were previously constrained by standard exchange rules.

From an issuer perspective, these changes could support more robust options markets around crypto ETFs, enhancing the attractiveness of listed products for institutions that require scalable hedging and leverage management. The broader regulatory signal—easing limits while maintaining oversight—also matters for credibility and institutional onboarding within the crypto asset space.

Nevertheless, observers should note that the crypto ETF landscape remains a function of evolving market structure, regulatory sentiment, and product demand. While the caps are lifting, liquidity will still hinge on actual trading volumes, market-making capacity, and the availability of reliable underlying data for price discovery. The market will likely watch volumes and bid-ask dynamics closely in the coming quarters to gauge the real-world impact of the change.

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Broader context and what to watch next

The SEC’s posture toward crypto-based options continues to unfold. The Nasdaq ISE’s bid to raise IBIT’s position limit to 1 million contracts illustrates a broader ambition to expand trading capability for crypto ETFs beyond the NYSE-anchored venues. As regulators weigh these proposals, the interaction between rule changes, liquidity, and market integrity will be a focal point for investors and issuers alike.

Market participants should also monitor how providers respond to the new FLEX options framework. Customizable terms could unlock nuanced hedging structures that align with institutional risk management needs, but they may also introduce additional complexity that requires careful governance and risk controls.

In short, the current move by NYSE Arca and NYSE American marks a meaningful step toward normalizing crypto ETF options with traditional derivatives markets. If liquidity improves as anticipated, more investors may incorporate crypto ETF options into diversified hedging programs, potentially deepening the role of listed crypto products in mainstream portfolios. The coming months will reveal how the market consumes these changes and whether further regulatory shifts follow.

Readers should keep an eye on trading data for IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, and related Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs as well as any developments from the SEC or Nasdaq ISE regarding contract limits, price-discovery mechanics, and the broader trajectory of crypto derivatives regulation.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

NYSE Exchanges Remove Cap Limiting Crypto Options

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NYSE Exchanges Remove Cap Limiting Crypto Options

Two New York Stock Exchange-affiliated exchanges have removed the 25,000 contract position limit on options tied to 11 crypto exchange-traded funds.

NYSE Arca and NYSE American each filed three rule changes in the Federal Register on March 10 to remove contract position limits and price discovery restrictions for options linked to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs listed on their exchanges.

These were acknowledged by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Sunday, with the SEC waiving the standard 30-day waiting period for both sets of proposed rule changes, meaning they are now in effect.

11 crypto ETFs are impacted by the options rules changes on NYSE Arca and NYSE American. Source: SEC

The limits were imposed when crypto ETF options first started trading in November 2024. Limits of this nature are typically imposed to prevent market manipulation and volatility. T

The removal of those limits now puts them closer to how other commodity ETF options are treated, and gives institutions greater trading flexibility while also potentially boosting liquidity and making it easier to enter and exit positions. 

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It also allows the crypto options to be traded as FLEX options, which include customizable terms such as non-standard strike prices, expiration dates and exercise styles.

Related: Scaramucci says BTC’s 4-year cycle still in play, forecasts rise in Q4 

A total of 11 crypto ETF options are affected by the rule changes, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

Bitcoin and Ether ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale are also affected.

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