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What Is the Most Likely Scenario for BTC After Crash to $74K?

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What Is the Most Likely Scenario for BTC After Crash to $74K?

Bitcoin’s recent sell-off has stalled after reaching a critical demand zone around $74K, opening the door for short-term consolidation. While downside pressure has eased for now, the broader structure suggests that a corrective rebound followed by a pullback into internal supply zones remains likely, allowing the market to cool off before its next decisive move.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains under notable selling pressure after a sharp decline into the $74K demand zone. This area coincides with a major weekly swing low, reinforcing its importance as a key defensive level for buyers.

Just below this support lies a significant liquidity cluster composed largely of long liquidation levels. The price behavior around this region is critical in defining the next market phase. A decisive bearish breakdown would likely trigger another wave of sell-side expansion, sweeping additional long positions.

However, from a short-term perspective, consolidation followed by a bullish retracement toward the lower boundary of the previously broken wedge, around the $90K region, appears to be the more probable scenario.

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BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

A closer look at the 4-hour chart indicates that BTC has likely entered a consolidation phase around the $73K area. Following strong impulsive declines, markets typically transition into a corrective range to absorb selling pressure and rebuild momentum.

In this context, Bitcoin appears positioned for a short-term range-bound move, with a potential pullback toward the internal supply zones located around $83K and $89K. Until a clear breakout occurs, price action is expected to remain confined within the $73K–$89K range, with the next directional move hinging on how the market reacts at these key levels.

Sentiment Analysis

The liquidation heatmap reveals a well-defined liquidity cluster below the recent market low, with the densest concentration extending toward the $70K region. This zone represents a large pocket of resting leverage, primarily tied to vulnerable long positions. In bearish or risk-off environments, such liquidity pools often act as magnetic targets, as price tends to seek areas where forced liquidations can provide the necessary liquidity for larger market participants.

Although the recent decline has already triggered a long liquidation cascade, the heatmap suggests that downside liquidity has not yet been fully cleared. After a brief thinning of liquidity below current price levels, leverage builds significantly closer to $70K, increasing the probability of a deeper sweep in the mid-term. Should price remain weak and fail to reclaim higher liquidity zones above, this lower cluster may ultimately act as an absorption area, where sell-side pressure is met by stronger bid interest, potentially stabilizing price following the drawdown.

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Crypto World

Iran Oil Tanker Fees Still Dominated by USDt, No Signs of BTC Yet: BPI

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Iran, Oil and Gas, Bitcoin Adoption

Iran’s government naming Bitcoin (BTC) as a payment method for oil ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz highlights its role as a neutral, strategic asset, according to Sam Lyman, head of research at digital asset advocacy organization Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI). 

The government selected BTC as one of the payment methods for the tolls because of its censorship-resistant qualities, Lyman told Cointelegraph. He said: 

“This is one of the most significant situations where Bitcoin is very clearly a strategic asset. The reason why Iran wants to use Bitcoin for these transactions is that no one can freeze Bitcoin. No one can shut down the Bitcoin network.”

Iran is accepting oil tolls in Chinese yuan, US dollar-pegged stablecoins and BTC. However, there is “no onchain evidence” of a BTC toll payment so far, Lyman said, adding that the “majority” of Iran’s crypto transactions are denominated in US dollar stablecoins.

Iran, Oil and Gas, Bitcoin Adoption
Transactions carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps account for nearly half of the total crypto market volume in Iran. Source: BPI

The announcement from the Iranian government highlights why US lawmakers should recognize and treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset, rather than taking a hostile regulatory stance toward it or dismissing digital assets altogether, Lyman told Cointelegraph.

Related: Bitcoin community weighs in on reports of Iran’s crypto toll for oil ships

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Stablecoin confiscation is just a cost of doing business

“Iran has had a digital asset strategy for several years, going back to about 2018, and the majority of transactions that take place there are with USDt,” (USDT), Lyman said. USDt is a dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by the company Tether.

The Iranian government is using stablecoins, despite the ability of stablecoin issuers to freeze wallets, he said. “I think they’re rolling the dice,” Lyman told Cointelegraph.

He said that the Iranian government has been able to shift about $3 billion in cryptocurrencies since 2022, with the “majority” of that value denominated in stablecoins.

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However, the US Treasury Department was only able to freeze about $600 million in assets, according to Lyman.

“They were able to move $3 billion, and only have $600 million frozen. They were still able to move about $2.4 billion. So, I think that’s why stablecoins are still a go-to for the regime,” he said.

Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?