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What to Expect From January US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

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What to Expect From January US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

Volatility around the US Dollar (USD) will likely ramp up on the employment report, with investors looking for fresh insights on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path forward on interest rates.

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What to Expect From the Next Nonfarm Payrolls Report?

The BLS reported early last week that it had postponed the release of the official employment report, originally scheduled on Friday, due to the partial government shutdown. After the US House passed a package on Tuesday to end the shutdown, the agency announced that it will release the labor market data on Wednesday, February 11.

Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to soften to 3.6% from 3.8%.

Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect job gains to have remained subdued in January, increasing by 45K.

“We look for private to add 40K and government to add 5K. We expect private sector strength to be concentrated in healthcare and construction. We look for the Unemployment Rate to show continued signs of stabilization, remaining at 4.4%. The low-fire, low-hire labor market remains. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y,” they add.

How Will the US September Nonfarm Payrolls Affect Eur/USD?

The USD started the month on a firm footing as markets reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, as the new chair of the Fed. Meanwhile, the USD also benefited from the heightened volatility surrounding precious metals, especially Silver and Gold, and Stock markets. 

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In turn, the USD Index, which gauges the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.5% in the first week of February. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said earlier in the month that she believes the labor market will continue to be supported by last year’s interest rate cuts. 

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Cook further noted that the labor market has stabilized and is approximately in balance, adding that policymakers remain highly attentive to the potential for a rapid shift. 

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Similarly, Governor Philip Jefferson argued that the job market is likely in balance with a low-hire, low-fire environment. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 15% probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut in March. 

In case the NFP reading disappoints, with a print below 30K, and the Unemployment Rate rises unexpectedly, the USD could come under pressure with the immediate reaction, opening the door to a leg higher in EUR/USD. On the other hand, an NFP figure at or above the market expectation could reaffirm another policy hold next month. 

The market positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in this scenario. Investors will also pay close attention to the wage inflation component of the report. 

If Average Hourly Earnings rise less than expected, the USD could find it difficult to gather strength, even if the headline NFP print arrives near the market forecast.

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Danske Bank analysts argue that softer wage growth could negatively impact consumer activity and pave the way for a dovish Fed action.

“The Challenger report showed more job cuts than expected in January and the JOLTs Job Openings came in at 6.5m in December (consensus 7.2m). Hence, the US ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to just 0.87 in December. Such cooling is usually a good predictor for weakening wage growth and may be a concern for the private consumption outlook and, all else equal, supports the case for earlier cuts from the Fed,” they explain.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 50, and EUR/USD fluctuates above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after having tested this dynamic support last week, reflecting buyers’ willingness to retain control.” “On the upside, 1.2000 (round level, psychological level) aligns as the next resistance before 1.2080 (January 27 high) and 1.2160 (static level). Looking south, the first key support level could be spotted at 1.1680, where the 100-day SMA is located, before 1.1620-1.1600 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 uptrend). A decisive drop below this support region could attract technical sellers and open the door for an extended slide.”

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Ethereum price prediction amid aggressive whale accumulation near $2k

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A man looks at a laptop displaying a cryptocurrency price chart, with an Ethereum coin placed on the desk beside him.
A man looks at a laptop displaying a cryptocurrency price chart, with an Ethereum coin placed on the desk beside him.
  • Ethereum whales continue to aggressively accumulate ETH amid falling prices.
  • The dip below $2,000 offers an attractive entry point for bulls.
  • Ethereum price touched intraday lows of $1,930 on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.

Ethereum has dipped below the $2,000 level again, with a 3% decline in the past 24 hours pushing the top altcoin to lows of $1,930 in early trading on February 11, 2026.

The decline mirrored Bitcoin’s retreat below $67,000, with the bellwether digital asset down 3% over the same period, trading around $66,805.

But despite the strong bearish sentiment across the cryptocurrency market, whales appear unfazed and are using the dip to aggressively add to their positions.

Ethereum whales buy the dip near $2k

On-chain data shows Ethereum has attracted aggressive whale accumulation for several months, despite a sharp decline in the altcoin’s price.

According to details shared by CryptoQuant on X, large holders began ramping up their positions in July 2025.

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This trend has continued even as the ETH price plunged from its peak amid a bearish flip in the last quarter of the year, with inflows into accumulation addresses hitting record highs amid sustained buying.

Notably, analysts say the loading up has continued after the ETH price fell below the realized value of accumulation addresses.

This scenario also played out in April 2025, when the Ethereum price plunged to lows of $1,470 amid a broader market correction.

However, bulls quickly recovered as whales bought the dip, and the altcoin’s price went on to touch its all-time high near $5,000 in August 2025.

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Recent data shows exchange balances have fallen to multi-year lows, with whales adding to their holdings as retail sells amid broader market panic.

This pattern persists as prices falter in early 2026.

With whales’ buying power intact, current levels are attractive, which has seen entities like Bitmine Immersion Technologies fully take advantage.

The company recently added over 40,600 ETH and currently holds over 4.3 million Ether tokens acquired at an average price of $2,125.

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Of this, it has staked over 2.97 million ETH, which accounts for more than 68% of its holdings.

Ethereum price prediction

The crypto fear and greed index hovers in extreme fear territory, which means a short-term bearish outlook.

Ethereum has tapped this sentiment as bulls struggle near $2,000, with the altcoin’s current dollar value more than 60% down since touching the all-time high near $5,000.

On the technical front, prices are below key exponential moving averages (EMAs), and oscillators favour bears.

Ethereum charts formed a death cross in November.

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This strengthened on February 5, 2026, when Bitcoin nosedived to $60k, and ETH plummeted past support at $2k to hit new lows near $1,740.

Despite a rebound to above $2k, downward pressure remains, and a pullback to that year-to-date low is possible.

If bears take further control, ETH could target $1,500-$1,300 next.

Ethereum Price Chart
Ethereum price chart by TradingView

However, aggressive buying even as ETH falls below realized prices of accumulation addresses indicates a long-term conviction.

Analysts forecast a significant rebound, with institutional demand and network growth driving the next leg up.

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On-chain metrics, including ETF inflows, will be key.

Notably, outflows have shrunk since the $1.4 billion in monthly flows exited Ethereum spot ETFs in November 2025, and the current total net assets sit at over $11.7 billion.

Recently, Bitmine’s Tom Lee said he expects a V-shaped recovery for ETH.

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Aviva Investors to tokenize funds on XRP Ledger in Ripple partnership

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Aviva Investors to tokenize funds on XRP Ledger in Ripple partnership

Aviva Investors, the asset management arm of U.K. insurer Aviva (AV), plans to tokenize traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) in a deal with blockchain firm Ripple, the companies said in a press release Wednesday.

The collaboration will see Ripple support Aviva Investors in issuing and managing tokenized funds on XRPL, a public blockchain designed for payments and financial transactions. The move marks Aviva Investors’ first foray into tokenization as it looks to integrate blockchain-based products into its lineup.

For Ripple, the agreement is a first partnership with a Europe-based investment manager, expanding its push to bring regulated financial assets onchain.

Asset managers have increasingly turned to tokenization to modernize fund infrastructure, using digital tokens to represent shares in money market funds, private credit, real estate and other strategies on a blockchain.

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The approach promises faster settlement, lower operational costs and broader distribution, while enabling features such as fractional ownership and automated compliance.

Major firms including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Hamilton Lane have already introduced tokenized products, signaling a shift from pilot projects to live, regulated offerings aimed at institutional investors.

Aviva Investors and Ripple said they will work together through 2026 and beyond to develop tokenized fund structures on XRPL.

The ledger, which started up in 2012, has processed more than 4 billion transactions and supports over 7 million wallets, according to Ripple. It is maintained by 120 independent validators and does not rely on energy-intensive mining.

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“We believe there are many benefits that tokenisation can bring to investors, including improvements in terms of both time and cost efficiency,” said Jill Barber, chief distribution officer at Aviva Investors, in the release.

“We are committed to adopting technological advancements that we believe can bring about positive change for our business, and we think tokenized funds can be hugely beneficial to our clients,” she added.

Read more: Tokenization still at start of hype cycle, but needs more use cases, specialists say

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Sam Bankman-Fried Accuses DOJ of silencing witnesses, targets judge in new trial bid

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Sam Bankman-Fried Accuses DOJ of silencing witnesses, targets judge in new trial bid

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has returned to social media, alleging that U.S. prosecutors improperly pressured witnesses during his criminal trial and arguing that his conviction should be overturned.

Summary

  • Sam Bankman-Fried has resurfaced on X, alleging U.S. prosecutors improperly pressured witnesses during his FTX criminal trial and claiming the conviction should be overturned.
  • He also called for U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan to recuse himself, accusing the judge of bias and prejudging defendants in his case.
  • Reaction on X has been sharply negative, with users dismissing his claims and reiterating that misuse of customer funds constitutes fraud regardless of solvency.

Sam Bankman-Fried demands judge’s recusal

In a post published on X, Bankman-Fried claimed that “new evidence” shows the Biden administration’s Department of Justice threatened multiple witnesses into silence or encouraged them to change their testimony.

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He said this alleged conduct undermines the integrity of the trial and warrants throwing out his conviction.

Bankman-Fried also called for U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan to recuse himself from ruling on the matter. He accused Kaplan of prejudging defendants and stacking proceedings against him, citing what he described as similar treatment toward former FTX executive Ryan Salame and U.S. President Donald Trump.

The comments follow Bankman-Fried’s recent legal filings seeking a new trial, in which his defense argues that jurors were denied access to exculpatory evidence and that the court improperly limited witness testimony.

His legal team has previously contended that key evidence related to FTX’s internal operations and bankruptcy process was excluded, weakening his ability to present a full defense.

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At this stage, Bankman-Fried’s allegations remain unproven.

Bankman-Fried was convicted in 2023 on multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy tied to the collapse of FTX and is currently serving a lengthy federal prison sentence. His appeals and post-conviction motions remain ongoing, with courts yet to determine whether any procedural errors rise to the level required for a retrial.

Reaction on X has been swift and overwhelmingly hostile. Many users rejected Bankman-Fried’s claims outright, arguing that misappropriating customer assets constitutes fraud regardless of solvency, with one post likening it to theft even if the property is later returned.

Others responded more viscerally, using profanity and personal attacks to dismiss SBF’s credibility and citing sworn testimony from former associates as evidence against him, while some also questioned why he is still able to post publicly from jail following his unanimous conviction.

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Binance and Franklin Templeton Enable Tokenized Money Market Funds as Institutional Trading Collateral

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • Eligible clients can use Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market funds as Binance trading collateral
  • Assets remain in third-party Ceffu custody while value is mirrored within Binance’s trading environment
  • Program reduces counterparty risk while enabling institutions to earn yield on collateral assets
  • Initiative represents first concrete implementation of September 2025 strategic partnership agreement

 

Binance and Franklin Templeton have launched an institutional collateral program enabling tokenized money market fund shares as trading collateral.

The program allows eligible clients to use assets issued through Franklin Templeton’s Benji Technology Platform as off-exchange collateral on Binance.

This marks the first initiative under their strategic partnership announced in September 2025. The program aims to improve capital efficiency while reducing counterparty risk.

Off-Exchange Collateral Program Reduces Risk for Institutional Traders

The new program addresses a major challenge facing institutional market participants. Traders can now use tokenized money market fund shares as collateral without parking assets on an exchange.

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The collateral value is mirrored within Binance’s trading environment through Ceffu’s custody infrastructure. Meanwhile, the actual tokenized assets remain securely held off-exchange in third-party custody.

This structure reduces counterparty risk for institutional clients. Traders earn yield on their money market fund holdings while supporting trading activity.

The arrangement eliminates choosing between custody security and trading flexibility. Institutions maintain regulatory protections on their assets throughout the process.

Ceffu, Binance’s institutional crypto-native custody partner, provides the underlying infrastructure. The custody layer enables assets to stay off-exchange while their value supports trading positions.

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“Institutions increasingly require trading models that prioritize risk management without sacrificing capital efficiency,” said Ian Loh, CEO of Ceffu.

Binance announced the program launch on social media. The exchange highlighted that this initiative represents the first step under their collaboration with Franklin Templeton. The partnership focuses on bridging traditional finance with digital asset markets.

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Traditional Finance and Digital Assets Converge Through Tokenization

Roger Bayston, Head of Digital Assets at Franklin Templeton, emphasized the partnership’s institutional focus. “Since partnering in 2025, our work with Binance has focused on making digital finance actually work for institutions,” Bayston said.

He added that the off-exchange collateral program lets clients put their assets to work in third-party custody while safely earning yield. That’s the future Benji was designed for, he noted.

Catherine Chen, Head of VIP & Institutional at Binance, described the collaboration as a natural progression. “Partnering with Franklin Templeton to offer tokenized real-world assets as off-exchange collateral is a natural next step in our mission,” Chen stated.

She explained that innovating ways to use traditional financial instruments on-chain opens new opportunities for investors. The approach shows how blockchain technology can make markets more efficient, according to Chen.

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The program responds to institutional demand for specific collateral characteristics. Institutions seek stable, yield-bearing assets supporting continuous settlement cycles. Tokenized money market funds meet these requirements while fitting existing governance frameworks.

Market infrastructure must align with institutional standards to support broader adoption. Binance positions the program as meeting demand for stable collateral on regulated platforms.

Enhanced capital efficiency benefits traders managing positions across both traditional and digital markets.

 

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Extreme FUD Persists on Social Media Despite BTC’s $60K Dip Recovery

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FUD Takes Over Crypto Social Media in Retail Selloff: Santiment 


Extreme FUD lingers after Bitcoin’s $60,000 rebound, with bearish social sentiment outweighing bullish posts.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back below $67,000 on Wednesday, February 11, extending a volatile stretch that began with last week’s drop to $60,000.

Despite that rebound from the lows, social data shows fear remains elevated, with traders split over whether the worst of the sell-off is over.

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Social Sentiment Stays Bearish as Volatility Spikes

Data shared by on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows a high ratio of bearish to bullish posts even after Bitcoin recovered from its $60,000 dip. According to the firm, retail traders seem hesitant to buy at current levels, while larger holders are facing less resistance in accumulating during periods of fear.

Santiment added that, historically, rebounds have often followed spikes in fear, though it did not claim this guarantees a bottom.

Meanwhile, short-term price action is still fragile, with market watcher Ash Crypto reporting that Bitcoin’s fall below $67,000 had liquidated roughly $127 million in long positions within four hours.

At the time of writing, market data from CoinGecko showed BTC trading around the $66,700 region, down about 3% in the last 24 hours and nearly 13% on the week. Over the past 30 days, the flagship cryptocurrency has fallen more than 27%, and it remains 47% below its October 2025 all-time high.

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The 24-hour range between $66,600 and $69,900 is a reflection of ongoing intraday swings, while weekly price action has spanned from about $62,800 to $76,500, showing just how unstable conditions are.

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Volatility metrics support that view, with Binance data cited by Arab Chain analysts showing that Bitcoin’s seven-day annualized volatility has climbed to around 1.51, its highest reading since 2022. However, 30-day and 90-day measures remain lower at 0.81 and 0.56, suggesting recent turbulence has not yet evolved into a sustained high-volatility regime. According to the analysts, the average true range as a percentage sits near 0.075, which historically has been a compressed level that often comes right before a larger directional move.

Bear Market Comparisons Resurface

An earlier report this week noted that Bitcoin has closed three consecutive weeks below its 100-week moving average, a pattern seen in previous bear markets. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju wrote on February 9 that “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” arguing that selling pressure is limiting upside follow-through.

Other commentators, including Doctor Profit, have described the current structure as a wide consolidation range between $57,000 and $87,000, warning that sideways trading could precede another leg lower.

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Furthermore, macro data is adding to the cautious tone, with XWIN Research Japan writing that weaker U.S. retail sales and easing wage growth mean that consumption is slowing, which may weigh on risk assets in the short term. The firm also noted a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Gap since late 2025, suggesting there’s weak U.S. spot demand compared to derivatives-driven activity.

Yet not all industry voices are focused solely on price cycles, with WeFi’s Maksym Sakharov saying he believes Bitcoin sentiment will eventually strengthen despite falling prices, but for different reasons than in past rallies.

“I believe Bitcoin sentiment will turn even stronger despite the falling prices, but this time it won’t be only about price or speculation, but also about real adoption,” Sakharov said.

In the meantime, BTC is sitting in a narrow zone between fear-driven pessimism and technical support near $60,000, with traders watching whether high volatility resolves higher or breaks lower in the weeks ahead.

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Franklin Templeton to Let Tokenized Money Funds Back Binance Trades

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Franklin Templeton to Let Tokenized Money Funds Back Binance Trades

Global investment manager Franklin Templeton announced the launch of an institutional off‑exchange collateral program with Binance that lets clients use tokenized money market fund (MMF) shares to back trading activity while the underlying assets remain in regulated custody. 

According to a Wednesday news release shared with Cointelegraph, the framework is intended to reduce counterparty risk by reflecting collateral balances inside Binance’s trading environment, rather than moving client assets onto the exchange.

​Eligible institutions can pledge tokenized MMF shares issued via Franklin Templeton’s Benji Technology Platform as collateral for trading on Binance. 

The tokenized fund shares are held off‑exchange by Ceffu Custody, a digital asset custodian licensed and supervised in Dubai, while their collateral value is mirrored on Binance to support trading positions.​

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Franklin Templeton said the model was designed to let institutions earn yield on regulated money market fund holdings while using the same assets to support digital asset trading, without giving up existing custody or regulatory protections. 

Related: Franklin Templeton expands Benji tokenization platform to Canton Network

“Our off‑exchange collateral program is just that: letting clients easily put their assets to work in regulated custody while safely earning yield in new ways,” said Roger Bayston, head of digital assets at Franklin Templeton, in the release.​

Franklin Templeton and Binance Collaboration. Source: Franklin Templeton

The initiative builds on a strategic collaboration between Binance and Franklin Templeton announced in 2025 to develop tokenization products that combine regulated fund structures with global trading infrastructure. 

Off‑exchange collateral to cut counterparty risk

​The design mirrors other tokenized real‑world asset collateral models in crypto markets. BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized US Treasury fund, issued by Securitize, for example, is also accepted as trading collateral on Binance, as well as other platforms, including Crypto.com and Deribit.

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That model allows institutional clients to post a low-volatility, yield‑bearing instrument instead of idle stablecoins or more volatile tokens.

Other issuers and venues, including WisdomTree’s WTGXX and Ondo’s OUSG, are exploring similar models, with tokenized bond and short‑term credit funds increasingly positioned as onchain collateral in both centralized and decentralized markets.

Related: WisdomTree’s USDW stablecoin to pay dividends on tokenized assets

Regulators flag cross‑border tokenization risks

Despite the trend of using tokenized MMFs as collateral, global regulators have warned that cross‑border tokenization structures can introduce new risks. 

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The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has cautioned that tokenized instruments used across multiple jurisdictions may exploit differences between national regimes and enable regulatory arbitrage if oversight and supervisory cooperation do not keep pace.

Cointelegraph asked Franklin Templeton how the tokenized MMF shares are regulated and protected and how the model was stress‑tested for extreme scenarios, but had not received a reply by publication.

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