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Why Bitcoin’s Rising HODL Cohorts Are a Bearish Signal This Time

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Bitcoin Slumps in February, Yet HODLers and Miners Signal Support


Short-term coin activity remains near historic lows, highlighting weak participation from new buyers across the network.

Bitcoin faced renewed sell pressure on Tuesday, briefly dragging the price down to $62,700 after a 5% decline, as macro concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

New data suggest that BTC remains in a defensive phase as capital continues to exit the network and supply ages steadily without signs of renewed accumulation.

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Peak Buyers Now Frozen

Realized Cap, which measures the aggregate value of all coins at the price they last moved, has declined for a second consecutive month. According to the latest analysis by Axel Adler Junior, this indicates that capital continues to exit the network rather than flow into it.

The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently stands at -2.26% and has remained negative for several weeks, which means that coins are either being transferred below their cost basis or that incoming capital is insufficient to offset ongoing outflows. Realized Cap peaked on November 26, 2025, at approximately $1.127 trillion and has since fallen to around $1.094 trillion – a compression of roughly $33 billion.

Daily net position changes continue to hover around zero or remain negative, amidst the absence of new capital entering the market. As long as the 30-day Realized Cap metric stays below zero, the network remains in net outflow mode. A move back into positive territory is the first condition required for a shift toward accumulation.

In addition, HODL Waves data revealed a sharp structural change in coin age distribution that is consistent with this defensive regime. Coins that last moved 3-6 months ago now make up about 26% of Bitcoin’s supply, up from 19% earlier this month. These coins were mostly bought near the last market peak and haven’t moved since.

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The share of Bitcoin held for 6-12 months has grown to just over 20%, while coins moved within the past month account for less than 10% of the supply. This shows that few new buyers are entering the market, as per Adler Junior. Most circulating coins were bought at higher prices and are now sitting at a loss, which has left holders reluctant to sell and effectively locking supply in place.

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The growth of older cohorts does not represent strategic accumulation but rather forced holding due to unfavorable price conditions. The structure would only see a meaningful change if coins in the 3-6 month band begin migrating into longer-term cohorts without triggering renewed selling pressure, alongside a measurable return of short-term activity.

Familiar Bear Signal Is Back

Against the backdrop of bleeding capital, an important technical signal that has appeared near the end of past Bitcoin bear markets is starting to form again. According to analyst Ali Martinez, a potential death cross on Bitcoin’s three-day chart is projected to occur in late February.

In previous cycles, this signal consistently showed up just before the final major drop. With the crypto asset still 50% below its October 2025 peak, Martinez warned that a similar setup could open the door to further downside.

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Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase Premium flips positive

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Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase BTC Premium flips positive for the first time in 40 days - 1

Bitcoin price is attempting a recovery near $65,000 as the Coinbase Premium turns positive despite recent exchange-traded fund outflows.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price prediction leans towards trend reversal as the Coinbase Premium flips positive.
  • The metric indicates strong U.S. demand returning after recent ETF outflows.
  • Price must reclaim key resistance to confirm a stronger recovery.

Bitcoin was trading at $65,907 at press time, up 3.4% in the last 24 hours. The move follows a drop to $62,900 within the past week, where buyers stepped in.

Even with the bounce, Bitcoin (BTC) is still down 24% over the past month and about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,050.

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Trading activity increased during the recovery. Spot volume reached $46 billion, up 22% day over day. In derivatives markets, CoinGlass data shows futures volume up 6.2% to $74.8 billion, while open interest slipped 0.1% to $43.9 billion.

This suggests some traders are closing positions rather than adding aggressive leverage.

Coinbase premium turns positive 

On Feb. 25, the Coinbase Premium Index turned positive for the first time in 40 days, hitting 0.0525%, according to CoinGlass.

The index measures the price difference between Coinbase and global exchanges. A positive reading means Bitcoin trades slightly higher on Coinbase, which often reflects stronger U.S. demand.

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This shift comes at a time when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded heavy outflows, with roughly $3.8 billion exiting recently. That contrast is important. While ETFs have seen capital leave, the premium suggests some U.S. buyers are stepping back in through exchange flows.

In past cycles, sustained positive premiums have aligned with accumulation phases and relief rallies. However, a single flip does not confirm a trend change. Traders will watch if the premium widens and holds over several sessions.

Bitcoin price prediction: Is the trend reversing?

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase. On the daily chart, price is still trading below its short-term trend pivot near the mid-Bollinger band around the high -$67,000 area.

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That zone now acts as the line that separates a relief bounce from a stronger recovery attempt.

Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase BTC Premium flips positive for the first time in 40 days - 1
Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Momentum indicators show improvement from oversold conditions, with the relative strength index climbing from sub-30 levels earlier in February. Bulls have not yet completely taken back control, though, as the RSI is still below the midpoint. 

The recovery might reach the low -$70,000 area if the Coinbase Premium holds positive and Bitcoin breaks through the mid-band resistance with growing spot volume. A move into that zone would shift short-term structure and increase confidence that the trend has reversed.

On the other hand, failure to reclaim resistance would keep the price vulnerable to another pullback toward the mid -$64,000 area. A break below that support would raise the risk of a deeper move toward $60,000.

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Binance Revives Tokenized Equities in Ondo Finance Deal

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Binance has relaunched tokenized stocks trading through a partnership with Ondo Finance on Binance Alpha.
  • The platform lists 10 tokenized U.S. stocks, ETFs, and commodity-linked products.
  • Users in the United States cannot access the new tokenized stock offerings.
  • Binance previously halted a similar service in 2021 after regulatory scrutiny in Europe.
  • Ondo Finance has recorded over $550 million in locked value and $11 billion in cumulative trading volume since September 2025.

Binance has relaunched tokenized stocks trading through a new partnership with Ondo Finance. The exchange will list 10 tokenized U.S. stocks, ETFs, and commodity-linked products on Binance Alpha. The move marks Binance’s return to this market nearly five years after halting a similar service.

Binance and Ondo Finance Launch Tokenized Equities on Alpha

Binance has partnered with Ondo Finance to introduce tokenized versions of major U.S. equities on Binance Alpha. The platform operates within Binance Wallet and targets early-stage digital asset offerings. Users can trade blockchain-based versions of Apple, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia shares.

The lineup also includes the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq index. Binance confirmed that users in the United States cannot access these tokenized stocks. Jeff Li, Binance’s vice president of product, said, “Our users now have even more convenient ways to explore and trade tokenized stocks.”

Binance Alpha allows access to projects before they reach the centralized spot marketplace. The company positions the platform as a gateway for higher-risk digital assets. Through this structure, Binance expands product access while keeping trading within its wallet ecosystem.

Ondo Finance issues the tokenized equities listed on the platform. The company focuses on bridging traditional financial assets with blockchain networks. Binance integrates these tokens directly into its wallet infrastructure.

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Binance previously launched tokenized stocks in April 2021, starting with Tesla shares. The exchange later added Coinbase, Strategy, Microsoft, and Apple to the offering. However, regulators in the United Kingdom and Germany raised compliance concerns.

The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority and Germany’s BaFin reviewed the product structure. Following regulatory scrutiny, Binance discontinued the service within months. The company has now resumed tokenized equities through its collaboration with Ondo Finance.

Last month, Binance stated that it was considering a renewed push into tokenized equities. The latest listings on Binance Alpha confirm that plan. The rollout follows growing activity in blockchain-based stock trading platforms.

Tokenized Stocks Market Expands Across Exchanges

Tokenized stocks have grown across crypto exchanges and traditional brokerages. The sector’s total value approaches $1 billion, according to recent market data. Ondo Finance reports more than $550 million in locked value.

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The company also recorded $11 billion in cumulative trading volume since September 2025. Other exchanges, including Kraken, Bybit, and Gemini, have introduced similar products. Robinhood has also launched tokenized equity trading services.

Traditional exchanges have also outlined plans involving stock tokens. Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have presented proposals tied to blockchain-based trading models. These developments align with Binance’s renewed entry into tokenized equities through Ondo Finance.

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Bitcoin Depot Introduces ID for All Transactions

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Bitcoin Depot Introduces ID for All Transactions

The biggest Bitcoin ATM operator in the US has begun phasing in a new requirement for users to provide identification for every transaction at its crypto ATMs amid increasing pressure from regulators and lawmakers for operators to curb illicit activity.

Bitcoin Depot said on Tuesday that it began the rollout earlier in February across the company’s US network ATMs, with the goal of helping to detect suspicious activity in real time and eliminate misuse by bad actors, such as account sharing, identity theft, and account takeover.

“Continuous verification allows us to detect suspicious activity based on customers, locations, or transaction amount before a transaction is approved,” Bitcoin Depot CEO Scott Buchanan said in a statement.

Bitcoin Depot implemented ID requirements in October, but only for all new users to its service. Buchanan said that “by requiring identity verification at every transaction, we are taking an additional step to strengthen security, protect customers, and maintain the integrity of our services.”

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The US is the largest hub for Bitcoin (BTC) ATMs, with Coin ATM Radar listing 31,360 machines, accounting for 78% of the worldwide total. Bitcoin Depot is the market leader in the country with 9,019 kiosks.

Bitcoin Depot operates the largest number of Bitcoin ATMs in the US. Source: Coin ATM Radar

Bitcoin Depot faces state-level lawsuits

Scammers have long used crypto ATMs as a way to receive funds from unwitting victims, as the kiosks are widespread and their transactions are irreversible, leading regulators and lawmakers to crack down on crypto ATM operators.

The advocacy organisation, the American Association of Retired Persons, reported in February that 17 US states have passed laws requiring crypto ATM operators to implement protections, including daily transaction limits, fraud warning signs, and licensing requirements.

Related: Crypto ATM limits and bans sweep across US: Here’s why

Bitcoin Depot has caught the ire of state regulators, as Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell sued Bitcoin Depot earlier this month, alleging the company has not implemented sufficient safeguards to prevent scams. Campbell is seeking a court order to bar Bitcoin Depot from processing large transactions without additional user protections.

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