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Why Crypto’s ‘Buy the Rumor’ Mantra No Longer Works

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Why Crypto’s ‘Buy the Rumor’ Mantra No Longer Works

I entered the crypto market at a time when Bitcoin traded around $6,000 — yes, that long ago. Back then, it existed in a no man’s land between experimentation and finance, and the market reacted to headlines or influential voices in a knee-jerk manner.

That wasn’t just my impression. Years later, a study analyzing Bitcoin and Dogecoin during the 2020–2021 cycle found statistically significant increases in price and trading volume on days when Musk posted about cryptocurrencies. The effect was especially pronounced for Dogecoin, whose volatility response was more than ten times stronger than that of Bitcoin.

Fast forward to today, and something feels different. Big news still happens. Prices still rise and fall. But the way the market responds has clearly changed. Below, I try to break down what’s actually different.

Headlines Used to Be the Market

Earlier crypto cycles were defined by immediacy. Liquidity was thinner, derivatives were far less dominant in price discovery, and positioning was far more visible in spot markets. As a result, price action clustered tightly around the moment news broke.

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To assess whether Bitcoin’s reactions to news were immediate or gradual, I compared price behavior around major headlines across different market cycles. I selected two high-impact events from earlier cycles and two events of comparable significance from the post-2024 halving period. For each case, I tracked price movements before and after the news and normalized the data to focus on reaction patterns rather than absolute price levels.

In February 2021, Tesla disclosed that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, which was trading around $38,000. Within hours of the announcement, the price surged more than 15% in a single session to the level above $44,000. There was little ambiguity in how the market interpreted the news. The headline itself was the catalyst.

The same dynamic worked in reverse just a few months later. In May 2021, as China intensified its crackdown on Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin fell from roughly $40,000 to near $30,000 in a matter of days. Headlines triggered panic selling, forced liquidations, and cascading declines that felt sudden and overwhelming. Price didn’t drift lower — it collapsed.

In those markets, volatility wasn’t an exception. It was the baseline.

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How the Current Cycle Handles Big News

Can we say Bitcoin no longer reacts to news? Not exactly. But the way it reacts has clearly changed.

Take the regulatory shift surrounding Gary Gensler’s departure as Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — widely viewed as a meaningful inflection point for the crypto industry.

In November 2024, when news of his impending exit became public, Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$80,000s. Over the following weeks, price pushed higher to the $100,000 level. But the move unfolded gradually, with much of the appreciation taking place before the leadership change became official in January 2025.

There was neither a single breakout candle, nor sudden repricing at the moment of confirmation. Instead, the market embraced the development as part of a broader, already-expected regulatory shift.

A similar pattern emerged during the February 2025 macro-driven sell-off. As U.S. tariff announcements and rising global risk pushed markets into a risk-off mode, Bitcoin slipped from just above $100,000 to the mid-$90,000s. The decline was real, but measured and spread over several sessions rather than concentrated in a single shock. Unlike the China ban in 2021, there was no panic cascade and no sense of structural failure.Price fell, but it did so calmly.

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Volatility Spread Out Over Time

The contrast is telling. In 2021, major headlines produced immediate double-digit moves jostled around the news itself. In the current cycle, developments of similar importance have resulted in multi-day trends, with price often moving ahead of official announcements.

Bitcoin didn’t stop rising and falling. The charts point to a different shape of volatility — with smoother price moves and fewer headline-driven extremes. Market reactions no longer reflect that wide-eyed, hair-scratching surprise, but are increasingly driven by positioning, liquidity, and expectations.

In short, Bitcoin didn’t stop reacting — it stopped overreacting.

Where the Reaction Went

Much of the current market’s adjustment happens away from the visible spot price. Large players now use futures and options to build and hedge exposure. Capital flows in and out via spot Bitcoin ETFs, while big trades move through OTC desks rather than hitting the spot market right away. Together, these channels mute the black-and-white reactions that once defined earlier crypto cycles.

Large players and whales are still there, but their influence no longer reveals itself through obvious spot-market shocks. They can reposition quietly, change exposure without immediately forcing price to respond.

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It feels like the market has finally buried its emotional, headline-driven reactions in the past and matured toward a quieter process of repricing risk.

This shift is unfolding against a very different macro backdrop: tighter global liquidity, fewer expectations of automatic bailouts, and monetary policy focused on restraint rather than stimulus. Bitcoin, increasingly treated as a macro asset and accessed through regulated channels like ETFs, now responds more to liquidity conditions and capital flows than to isolated news events.

If you’re still expecting every major headline to trigger an instant breakout or crash, the market can feel broken. Step back, though, and a different picture emerges — one where the noise hasn’t vanished, but it no longer leads the story. What remains is a market learning to price risk with patience.

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The S&P 500 is officially coming to crypto with its first-ever 24/7 perpetual futures product

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The S&P 500 is officially coming to crypto with its first-ever 24/7 perpetual futures product

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Wednesday that it is bringing the S&P 500 to the blockchain via the Hyperliquid platform, making it easier for investors to trade the most widely tracked equity index 24 hours a day.

The company said it licensed its flagship stock index to Trade[XYZ], which is launching the first officially approved S&P 500 perpetual contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain.

In simple terms, this means eligible non-U.S. investors can trade the S&P 500 onchain, around the clock, without using traditional stock exchanges.

Perpetual futures contracts, or “perps,” are derivative instruments without expiration dates that allow investors to place bets on an asset’s price without owning it, using funding rates, typically every few hours, to keep prices aligned with spot markets. Their infinite duration (perpetual futures contracts never expire, unlike traditional contracts), high-leverage options, and round-the-clock access have made them extremely popular in the crypto space and have generated billions in daily trading volume across exchanges.

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For the S&P 500, it is the first time it has been turned into a perpetual product with official backing from S&P. It also uses the firm’s real-time index data, bringing a more traditional finance standard into crypto trading. This guarantees the accuracy of index trading while the traditional market remains closed.

S&P says the goal is to expand where and how its indexes can be used. “This collaboration expands access” to its benchmarks in digital markets, said S&P’s Chief Product Officer Cameron Drinkwater.

24//7 trading

The move opens the door for non-U.S. investors to get leveraged exposure to the S&P 500 through a blockchain-based platform.

For example, if big macro news hits on the weekend, when the market is closed, traders traditionally need to speculate on how the S&P 500 will move on Monday, when the market opens. However, with these new perpetual contracts, traders can place bets immediately and with accuracy as soon as news breaks. Recently, crypto traders were able to trade oil futures on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid on a weekend, when the first missile hit Iran, while traditional oil markets remained closed.

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Trade[XYZ] runs on Hyperliquid, a decentralized network built for fast trading. The platform says its markets are always open, unlike stock exchanges that close after hours and on weekends. XYZ markets have exceeded $100 billion since October, with an annualized run rate of more than $600 billion.

The news seems to have helped HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid platform. The token is up 2.2% over the past 24 hours, 14.2% over the past 7 days, and 35.5% over the past month. Hyperliquid has recently become a crypto trader’s favorite platform for trading markets outside traditional finance.

Recently, Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets unavailable on traditional platforms, noting that the HYPE token could reach $150, citing the platform’s strong revenue, real trading activity, and disciplined token supply.

Trade[XYZ] said the S&P 500 is just the starting point as it looks to bring more traditional assets onchain. “The S&P 500 is a natural starting point. It represents the most widely tracked equity index on earth and has been the defining benchmark for global equities for decades,” said Collins Belton, chief operating officer and general counsel of Trade[XYZ]’s parent company.

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The announcement builds on S&P DJI’s prior decentralized finance initiatives, including its recent launch of the S&P Digital Markets 50 index, the company said.

Read more: 2026 Marks the Inflection Point for 24/7 Capital Markets

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Ethereum Foundation Deposits Another $7.5M in ETH From Its Treasury into Morpho

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Ethereum Foundation Deposits Another $7.5M in ETH From Its Treasury into Morpho

The move follows the EF’s first deployment into the DeFi lending protocol in October, and is part of its updated treasury policy.

The Ethereum Foundation has deposited another 3,400 ETH — worth roughly $7.5 million at today’s prices, near $2,220 — into DeFi lending protocol Morpho, with 1,000 ETH allocated specifically to Morpho Vaults V2, according to a X post from the EF today, March 18.

The move follows an initial deployment in October 2025, when the EF put 2,400 ETH (~$5.3 million) and approximately $6 million in stablecoins into the protocol — bringing the Foundation’s total Morpho commitment to just under $19 million to date.

According to the post, the DeFi deployments are a direct expression of the EF’s refreshed treasury policy, first unveiled in June 2025, which codified a new “Defipunk” framework to guide on-chain capital allocation.

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As The Defiant reported at the time, the policy signaled that DeFi was no longer a sideshow for the Foundation — it was putting its ETH where its mouth is, prioritizing permissionless, immutable, audited protocols aligned with cypherpunk values over passive ETH sales to cover operations.

The EF also elaborated on why it chose to deploy in Morpho, and in particular praised Morpho Vaults V2, which launched in September. The Foundation cited the product’s GPL-2.0 open-source license — a deliberate choice, it noted, that makes the codebase permanently able to be audited and forked.

Crucially, Vaults V2’s core contracts are immutable: no admin keys, no upgrade mechanisms, no emergency switches. “The true cypherpunk infrastructure doesn’t ask you to trust its builders, and it removes the need entirely,” the Foundation wrote in its X announcement.

According to DefiLlama, Morpho is currently the second-largest DeFi lending protocol behind Aave, with a total total value locked (TVL) of over $6.9 billion. The protocol has attracted significant institutional interest in recent months, including a deal for Apollo Global Management — which manages nearly $940 billion in assets — to acquire up to 9% of Morpho’s 1 billion total token supply over four years.

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The EF framed the Morpho allocation as a question of ecosystem direction:

“What kind of DeFi ecosystem is Ethereum aiming to support, and how should it weigh short-term performance against long-term resilience and openness? Choices like licensing and architecture may seem small, but they shape which of these paths remain viable over time.”

The treasury move comes amid a busy stretch for the Foundation. Just last week, the EF published its 38-page EF Mandate, which sparked debate in the community over whether the Foundation risks taking a backseat at a critical moment for institutional adoption.

In February the EF also pledged to deepen its support for privacy-first, permissionless DeFi, forming a dedicated internal unit to support builders adhering to those principles. The Morpho deposit suggests the commitment is more than rhetorical.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Views for next Fed rate cut pushed back after hot inflation report

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Views for next Fed rate cut pushed back after hot inflation report

Construction work continues at the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC, on Dec. 30, 2025.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

A hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation reading for February had traders contemplating the possibility that the Federal Reserve won’t be lowering interest rates at all this year.

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Following a Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the producer price index posted its biggest gain in a year, futures markets took any realistic chance of a cut off the table until at least December.

Even then, odds of a reduction at the final Fed meeting of the year fell to about 60% as persistently higher inflation — brought on by tariffs, the Iran war and elevated services costs — will keep the central bank on hold. The PPI report came just hours before the Federal Open Market Committee was to release its latest interest rate decision.

The wholesale inflation reading “likely reinforces a hold decision by the Federal Reserve later today but tilts the risk toward a more hawkish tone in today’s FOMC” statement, said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. “Even if rates are left unchanged and we see multiple dissents, the messaging may lean toward ‘higher for longer,’ especially with energy inflation set to re-enter the picture in coming months.”

Prior to the war that began Feb. 28, traders had been looking for interest rate cuts in both June and September, with an outside possibility of one more in December as the Fed sought to balance its dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment.

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But odds for a June cut have now slumped to just 18.4%, July is down to 31.5% and September to 43.6%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, which calculates probabilities using 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

Low conviction

Chances for a December reduction were at 60.5%, indicating that traders are leaning toward a cut, though with a relatively low level of conviction. Historically, the 60% level or above has been associated with Fed moves in either direction.

Futures are implying a 3.43% fed funds rate by the end of 2026, compared to the current level of 3.64%.

To be sure, trading in fed funds futures is volatile, and the Fed could be pushed back into an easing stance if the labor market weakens further. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller have been advocating for immediate cuts, though the rest of the committee seems more inclined to hold rates where they are until the economic picture clears.

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Correction: The Iran war began Feb. 28. A previous version misstated the country’s name.

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SBI VC Trade Launches USDC Lending Service for Japan Users

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SBI VC Trade Launches USDC Lending Service for Japan Users

SBI Holdings’ digital asset arm, SBI VC Trade, said it will launch a USDC lending service in Japan on Thursday, allowing retail users to lend stablecoins to the platform under fixed-term agreements in exchange for returns.

On Wednesday, the company said users will be able to lend Circle’s USDC (USDC) stablecoin to the platform and receive interest payments, with a maximum application of 5,000 USDC per offering. The product is structured as a loan to SBI VC Trade rather than a deposit, meaning users take direct counterparty risk. SBI said it may also re-lend the borrowed USDC as part of its operations.

The launch marks a further step in Japan’s stablecoin rollout, bringing a consumer-accessible USDC yield product to market through a licensed domestic platform.

SBI said the product is intended as an alternative to traditional US dollar deposits in Japan, though, unlike bank deposits, segregation protections do not cover user assets and may not be fully recoverable in the event of insolvency. Users are also unable to withdraw or transfer funds during the fixed lending term, limiting their ability to respond to market conditions.

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Translated table comparing tax treatment of USDC lending and foreign currency deposits in Japan. Source: SBI VC Trade

SBI expands stablecoin footprint

The launch follows an initial announcement in November, when SBI VC Trade said it planned to launch a USDC lending product and was exploring exchange-traded fund (ETF) products, according to Reuters. 

The development comes as SBI has been expanding its stablecoin strategy. SBI VC Trade began a full-scale USDC launch in Japan on March 26, 2025, after receiving regulatory approval earlier that month. Circle said the approval made USDC the first approved global dollar stablecoin for use in Japan.

Related: SBI Holdings targets majority stake in Singapore crypto exchange Coinhako

On Aug. 22, SBI announced the establishment of a joint venture with Circle, aiming to promote the use of USDC in Japan and create new use cases for the stablecoin in digital finance. 

On Dec. 16, the company partnered with Startale to develop a regulated yen-denominated stablecoin aimed at tokenized assets and global settlement, with a planned launch in the second quarter of 2026.

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