Crypto World
Why quantitative traders are using complex math models to hijack your weekend sports bets
Chicago-based trading giant DRW has spent decades profiting from mismatches between different asset classes, and now it’s building a dedicated prediction market desk targeting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
The move is one of the clearest signs yet that sophisticated “quantitative trading” firms — traders that use complex math and analysis to set up strategies — are increasingly viewing prediction markets as a legitimate trading venue rather than a niche betting product.
The firm that has been a dominant force in derivatives, fixed income and crypto markets since 1992, recently posted a job listing requiring candidates to monitor prices in real time across both platforms simultaneously, identify gaps where one is mispricing an outcome relative to the other and react quickly to profit before the pricing converges. The strategies listed in these posts — including microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arbitrage, and news-driven momentum trading at sub-second speeds — are techniques honed in crypto derivatives markets and now being applied to sports and political events.
DRW is not alone. Wintermute, the algorithmic market maker that processes billions in daily crypto volume, is hiring algorithmic traders with experience in prediction markets. IMC, another proprietary trading firm, is also looking for quantitative traders comfortable operating across binary event contracts. Meanwhile, traditional crypto exchanges like OKX and Crypto.com have also recently posted job listings.
The hiring wave suggests institutional trading firms increasingly believe prediction markets have matured into a serious asset class and are ripe for profit.
Exploiting the mismatch
So what’s driving the sudden push? The catalyst is the volume being traded on these platforms.
Polymarket alone processed between $22 billion and $40 billion across political, economic and sports markets in 2025, up from virtually nothing three years ago and a growing share of that is concentrated in sports.
As of last week, Polymarket’s market on the UEFA Champions League Winner has processed $256 million, the 2026 NBA Champion market has done $399 million, and the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup market sits at $79 million after wild swings that saw Carolina Hurricanes rise from sub-10% implied probability to around 50% as they emerged from the Eastern Conference.
Combined, those three markets alone represent over $730 million in volume on sports outcomes, approaching the annual trading volume of some mid-sized European sports betting exchanges.
But the real reason traditional firms are pushing into this industry may not be to predict outcomes better than everyone else, market observers say.
“I don’t expect the institutional capital is contributing meaningfully to the accuracy of these markets, especially in the case of sports,” said Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University who studies prediction market calibration.
“The accuracy of the markets is driven by specialized sports betting groups, which are much sharper at pricing sports outcomes.
Instead, Crane argues, firms such as DRW are likely applying trading techniques developed in traditional financial markets to exploit pricing mismatch.
“To the extent they are profitable, the institutions are likely applying techniques on short-term market dynamics and other technical aspects of trading that capitalize on short-term market fluctuations without insight into the event outcome.”
Simply put, DRW is not trying to predict who wins the Champions League. It is trying to profit from the way prices move before that question is answered.
A recent example appeared in the market for Britain’s next prime minister.
On the morning of May 14, Andy Burnham’s odds of becoming the next U.K. leader in the betting of “Next UK Prime Minister” on Polymarket surged from 24 cents to 43 cents as political speculation intensified around a potential Labour leadership challenge. But Betfair, the London-based betting exchange with over a billion pounds in annual volume, had already identified the move, pricing Burnham at the equivalent of 50 cents while Polymarket still showed 24 cents.
It took Polymarket hours to catch up.
For casual bettors, the gap was an interesting anomaly, but to a sophisticated quant trader, it was a textbook cross-market inefficiency waiting to be exploited.
In theory, a trader could have bought $10,000 of Burnham contracts on Polymarket at 24 cents after noticing the mismatch, before locking in $7,900 worth of profit in a matter of hours by selling when it caught up to Betfair, which would have made a profit without the event even needing to take place.
It’s a technique that has been used for decades by traditional trading firms: finding a mispriced asset across exchanges and either simultaneously buying/selling, as in arbitrage, or buying the underpriced asset and waiting for it to catch up.
Prediction markets, however, introduce an additional challenge. Betfair settles in sterling while Polymarket settles in crypto, requiring infrastructure capable of moving capital across currencies, exchanges and settlement systems.
That kind of complexity plays directly into the strengths of large trading firms, such as DRW
What’s driving them?
Beyond outright arbitrage, traders point to two structural features that make prediction markets attractive today.
The first is information lag. Traditional betting exchanges often react more quickly than decentralized prediction platforms, creating windows where prices have not yet fully adjusted.
The second is liquidity fragmentation. Champions League, NBA and Stanley Cup markets can trade simultaneously across Polymarket, Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks, meaning no single venue necessarily reflects the full market consensus.
For traders focused on forecasting outcomes rather than market structure, the toolkit looks increasingly familiar to quantitative finance.
Soccer traders often rely on “Dixon-Coles Poisson” models. The toolkit, developed in a 1997 academic paper, estimates team attack and defense strength and generates probability distributions for potential scorelines. This is something similar to how a weather forecaster assigns precise probabilities to every possible outcome rather than making a single prediction.
Meanwhile, Basketball traders frequently use “Bayesian Hierarchical” models that update assessments of team strength as new information arrives.
The goal for both models is to identify discrepancies between a model’s estimated probability and the probability implied by market prices.
A trader whose model values Arsenal’s Champions League chances at 47% while contracts trade at 43 cents may buy and profit if the market eventually converges toward that estimate.
The concept is known as closing line value, or CLV.
Crane explains why the CLV matters: “It incorporates all known pre-game information, such as injuries and lineup changes, and the sharpest players tend to wait until closer to game time to place bets because that is when the limits tend to be highest.”
Competition is here
Still, Crane remains skeptical that institutional firms will dominate sports prediction markets simply because they have arrived with larger balance sheets.
“Right now, the sharpest players in the sports betting markets are not the institutions,” he said. “The sharpest players have been in these markets for decades, and the prevailing market prices are likely driven by the same groups and the same information sources since long before prediction markets existed.”
Despite the skepticism, the talent migration is already underway.
Crypto market makers are studying sports analytics and expected-goals models, while traditional sports betting specialists are increasingly being recruited by crypto firms seeking expertise that took years to develop.
And it’s not just theoretical.
HyperLiquid, the onchain perpetuals exchange that processed over $10 billion in daily volume at its peak, is already preparing to launch prediction markets ahead of the 2026 World Cup, featuring 64 games over six weeks and generating thousands of correlated binary outcomes.
The infrastructure is being built, and the desks are now being staffed, with models working on potential outcomes.
The main question is whether institutions can outperform veteran sports bettors by finding their edge and applying sophisticated trading models used in traditional finance. But on latency, market structure and cross-platform inefficiencies, the competition has already begun.
Crypto World
Singapore court grants $3M to Terraform UST collapse victims
Singapore court has awarded more than $3 million in damages to 40 investors after finding Terraform Labs and co-founder Do Kwon liable for fraudulent misrepresentations tied to the 2022 TerraUSD collapse.
Summary
- Singapore court awarded more than $3 million to 40 investors after finding Terraform Labs and Do Kwon liable for fraudulent UST claims.
- The ruling followed earlier court findings and used a revised UST valuation that increased compensation for eligible claimants.
- Terraform’s legal troubles continue as bankruptcy proceedings and other lawsuits linked to the 2022 Terra collapse remain ongoing.
According to the June 29 judgment from the Singapore International Commercial Court (SICC), the award concludes the second tranche of a representative fraud action brought by 275 investors who sought compensation for losses suffered during the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin in May 2022.
The latest ruling follows the court’s first-tranche decision in 2025, which found that Terraform Labs Pte Ltd and Do Kwon made actionable fraudulent representations. It also incorporates guidance from the Singapore Court of Appeal’s March 2026 decision, which revised the method for calculating damages by adopting a higher cut off value of about $0.60485 per UST.
Court finds investors relied on false UST claims
In its ruling, the SICC found that Terraform and Kwon falsely represented UST as a stablecoin capable of reliably maintaining its one dollar peg through its algorithm, reserves, and LUNA-based arbitrage mechanism. According to the court, those statements appeared on Terraform’s website, white papers, and public communications despite being false or made with reckless disregard for their accuracy.
The court held that some investors relied on those claims when buying or continuing to hold UST, leading to financial losses after the stablecoin lost its peg. Damages were therefore calculated on a reliance basis for holdings up to May 12, 2022, while losses after that date were treated as too speculative for compensation.
The Court of Appeal’s earlier decision to increase the UST cut off valuation resulted in higher compensation for eligible claimants than under the original damages model.
Bankruptcy cases continue as legal pressure grows
The Singapore judgment adds to Terraform’s expanding legal challenges after the company entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in the United States. Claims reconciliation for creditors is ongoing, and any further recoveries for investors are expected to depend largely on distributions from the bankruptcy estate, alongside the outcome of other pending litigation.
Earlier this year, Terraform’s court-appointed bankruptcy administrator also sued market maker Jane Street, alleging the firm used confidential information and manipulated markets to profit during the Terra ecosystem’s collapse. Jane Street denied the allegations, calling the lawsuit an attempt to extract money and maintaining that Terra investor losses resulted from fraud committed by Terraform’s own management.
Do Kwon, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud charges in the United States, also continues to face criminal proceedings in South Korea alongside other legal actions connected to the collapse.
According to the SICC ruling and related court proceedings, the case adds to a series of legal actions examining how crypto projects communicated risks to investors before major failures. The court’s findings may also influence future representative actions involving digital asset projects, while regulators in several jurisdictions continue to push for stronger disclosure standards for stablecoin and decentralised finance products.
Crypto World
Bitcoin price breakout above $60K lacks fresh buying fuel: analyst
Bitcoin price has slipped back below $60,000 after another failed breakout attempt, as weak stablecoin inflows have reinforced concerns over a lack of fresh buying demand.
Summary
- Bitcoin price has failed to hold above $60,000 since June 25 as weak stablecoin inflows limit buying demand.
- Record spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and Strategy’s potential BTC sales continue to weigh on market liquidity.
- Analysts see $58,000-$59,000 as key support, with a break lower increasing the risk of another selloff.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $59,300 on June 30 after briefly reclaiming the psychological $60,000 level before slipping back below it, extending a series of failed breakout attempts since falling under the mark on June 25.
Market sentiment remained fragile as traders weighed shrinking liquidity, record spot ETF outflows, and a challenging macro backdrop. According to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom, the latest on-chain data suggests the market lacks the fresh capital typically needed to support a sustained breakout.
“New money has stopped coming in,” Sunny Mom wrote, adding that “any bounce that does appear is more likely a short-term technical reaction than the beginning of a trend reversal.”
The analyst based that view on the 30-day stablecoin market capitalization growth rate. USDC issuance has turned negative, while Ethereum-based USDT growth has also weakened.
Stablecoins often serve as the primary source of buying power for crypto markets, making slower issuance a sign that fewer investors are converting cash into digital assets.
Institutional selling and macro headwinds continue to cap Bitcoin
Fresh institutional data has reinforced the liquidity concerns. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded nearly $1.79 billion in net outflows during the final full week of June, the largest weekly withdrawal this year. Because fund managers must sell Bitcoin to meet investor redemptions, those outflows have removed one of the market’s strongest sources of spot demand.
As reported earlier by crypto.news, Strategy recently unveiled its Digital Credit Capital Framework, authorizing up to $1.25 billion in potential Bitcoin sales to meet interest and dividend obligations. The announcement arrived alongside quarter-end portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors, adding another source of supply after months in which the company had consistently accumulated Bitcoin.
Economic conditions have further reduced appetite for risk assets. A stronger-than-expected U.S. Core PCE inflation reading weakened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while higher Treasury yields encouraged investors to rotate toward fixed-income assets.
At the same time, Brent crude slipped toward $73 per barrel as attention shifted to renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations in Doha after an interim agreement reduced the immediate risk of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Still, geopolitical uncertainty has remained part of the market backdrop.
Technical structure keeps downside risks in focus
Bitcoin’s 1-day USDT chart continues to favor sellers after price failed to reclaim the descending trendline drawn from the May highs. The cryptocurrency is trading just above the key support zone around $58,169, which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. A decisive move below that level could expose the mid-$50,000 region.

Momentum indicators have yet to confirm a durable reversal. The daily RSI has slipped to around 32, placing Bitcoin close to oversold territory, while the MACD remains below the zero line despite flattening after the recent selloff. Those readings suggest selling pressure has slowed but buyers have not yet regained control.
Derivatives positioning also points to heightened volatility around current prices. CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest downside liquidity clusters between $58,800 and $59,000, while another concentration of leveraged positions sits near $61,000 to $61,500. Either zone could attract price if momentum accelerates.

According to analyst Ted Pillows, Bitcoin’s immediate outlook depends on whether support between $58,000 and $59,000 can hold.
“The key level for Bitcoin here is $58,000-$59,000 which should hold for any bounceback.”
A successful defense of that area could trigger a relief rally toward the low-$60,000 range and potentially $61,500, where liquidation pressure increases.
However, if Bitcoin fails to hold support, it would strengthen the bearish case, particularly if stablecoin issuance remains weak, ETF redemptions continue, and macro conditions keep institutional capital away from risk assets.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Miner Ionic Digital Files for Nasdaq Direct Listing
Bitcoin miner-turned-AI infrastructure company Ionic Digital has filed for a Nasdaq direct listing that could give former Celsius creditors a public market for shares they received through the bankrupt lender’s restructuring.
Registered stockholders may sell up to 10.8 million Class A shares under the proposed IOND ticker, according to a registration statement filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
Ionic was formed in 2024 to acquire Celsius Mining’s assets through the bankrupt lender’s restructuring. In the filing, Ionic said it started repositioning itself in 2025 from a pure-play Bitcoin miner into a broader digital infrastructure company serving artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads.
The proposed direct Nasdaq listing will not raise new capital for Ionic, according to the filing. Instead, the listing will establish a public market for existing shareholders, including former Celsius creditors who received Ionic shares through the bankruptcy plan.
Ionic repurposes Bitcoin mining site for AI
Ionic’s AI pivot revolves around its 234-megawatt Ward County property in Texas, originally developed for Bitcoin mining. In October 2025, the company leased the site to AI infrastructure provider Nscale under a 126-month agreement representing nearly $2 billion in contracted revenue.
Ionic said the agreement could be expanded to include an additional 89 MW if the company secures the required capacity and approvals. This potentially increases its contracted revenue to about $2.6 billion, according to the company.
Related: Celsius’ Mashinsky gets permanent trading ban in CFTC settlement
The shift has started to appear in Ionic’s financial results. The company recorded $44 million in digital infrastructure leasing revenue in the first quarter of 2026, while Bitcoin mining revenue fell 82% year over year to $7.4 million as it repurposed Ward County and reduced the number of active miners, according to its SEC filing on Monday.

Ionic Digital’s reported revenue. Source: SEC filing
The filing follows Ionic’s completion of a $400 million equity private placement on Friday. Ionic said the proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes, while its CEO, Andy Stewart, said the funds would support the continued development of its digital infrastructure assets.
Magazine: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks, Ether eyes ‘selling wave’: Market Moves
Crypto World
Bitcoin Bulls Fight for $60K as Markets Digest US-Iran News (Market Watch)
Bitcoin’s price action remained choppy over the past 24 hours as bulls attempted to reclaim the psychologically important $60,000 level. Meanwhile, broader risk markets reacted positively to fresh signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran.
The primary cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $60,600 but failed to hold the line and slipped back toward $59,4000 at the time of this writing. Its intraday low came just below $59,000, suggesting that sellers remain active around every push toward $60,000.
BTC Price Battles for $60K
Bitcoin started the new week under pressure. It dropped below $60,000 – a level that has become a key battleground for traders in the short term. Although it managed to stage a modest recovery, momentum has remained limited as traders continue to weigh macroeconomic risks, geopolitical developments, and weakening crypto sentiment. This has perhaps been accurately reflected in the fresh wave of ETF outflows, with another $300 million leaving BlackRock’s IBIT.
One of the main external drivers of yesterday’s price action was US President Donald Trump, who said that peace talks with Iran would be renewed. The comments helped ease some concerns around the conflict, although there has been mixed reporting on Tehran’s reaction over the scope and the timing of these supposed negotiations.
In any case, traditional markets reacted very positively. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both finished yesterday’s session in the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a record high, as investors rotated back into major tech-related shares and responded to the signs of de-escalation.
Bitcoin has, unfortunately, been unable to capitalize on the move. The cryptocurrency remains stuck slightly below $60K, with a decisive break above that needed to improve the current short-term sentiment. A failure to do so could expose it to yet another test of the support zone around $59,000.

Alts Mixed as Market Remains Relatively Flat
Most of the larger-cap altcoins posted little moves over the past 24 hours. Ethereum trades near $1600 following a small increase. Ripple’s XRP is flat at $1.04, while Solana is inching closer to $74 following a slight increase of 1%. Perhaps more notable is the move of Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, which increased by about 4.5% and is trading at around $65.
The broader cryptocurrency market remains mostly flat, with the total capitalization hovering around $2.14 trillion, according to CoinGecko. Daily trading volumes remain somewhat elevated, while Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 58%.
Overall, crypto traders continue to be cautious. US equities definitely benefited from renewed optimism around the diplomacy between the US and Iran, but Bitcoin needs to turn $60K back into support before the market can stage a stronger recovery.

The post Bitcoin Bulls Fight for $60K as Markets Digest US-Iran News (Market Watch) appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
Tencent (TCTZF) Stock Buybacks Accelerate Amid $309B Market Cap Decline
Key Points
- Since reaching its peak in October, Tencent has experienced a market capitalization decline of approximately $309 billion, with Hong Kong-listed shares falling over 35%.
- Daily stock repurchases have become routine since mid-May, with June’s buyback expenditure exceeding HK$9 billion ($1.1 billion), marking the highest monthly figure in 2025.
- Following a May 13 shareholder vote, Tencent secured authorization to repurchase approximately 912 million shares, representing roughly 10% of outstanding stock.
- Market participants continue expressing skepticism regarding the company’s ability to generate returns from AI investments, which are projected to exceed 36 billion yuan by 2026—more than double current levels.
- Current forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 11.2x, representing the lowest valuation in company history and trading below even utility provider CLP Holdings.
The tech powerhouse based in Shenzhen has embarked on an aggressive share repurchase campaign rather than pursuing external acquisitions. Since mid-May, Tencent has been systematically acquiring its own equity on nearly every trading session in an effort to stabilize a stock price that has suffered dramatically in recent months.
Tencent Holdings Limited, TCTZF
The data paints a stark picture. Since October’s peak, Tencent‘s Hong Kong-traded shares have plummeted more than one-third in value. This dramatic downturn has vaporized approximately $309 billion in total market capitalization.
June has emerged as a particularly active period for share repurchases. The company allocated more than HK$9 billion, equivalent to roughly $1.1 billion, toward buying back its own stock this month. This figure is on track to establish a new record for monthly repurchase activity in 2025.
On a single day—June 15—Tencent repurchased approximately 1.081 million shares totaling HK$5.01 billion, with transaction prices spanning HK$458 to HK$475.6 per share. Earlier, on May 22, the company acquired an additional 1.132 million shares for HK$500.56 million.
Market Sentiment Shifts Negative
The stock’s decline can be traced directly to investor apprehension surrounding Tencent’s substantial AI investment commitments. March witnessed a catastrophic single-session market value erosion of $66 billion following the company’s disclosure of its artificial intelligence spending roadmap.
Management announced in March plans to more than double AI-related capital allocation to surpass 36 billion yuan—approximately $5.3 billion—by 2026. Market participants remained unconvinced that future returns would justify such substantial expenditure.
“Market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach—they’re demanding tangible evidence that these investments will generate returns, but concrete proof has been lacking,” explained Agnes Ng, portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price. She noted that investors are specifically awaiting clear monetization pathways for Tencent’s AI initiatives.
Notably, mainland Chinese investors—who traditionally provided support during previous downturns—have become net sellers for three consecutive months ending in June.
Authorization for Share Repurchases
The company’s buyback initiative operates under substantial authority. During the annual general meeting held May 13, shareholders granted approval for Tencent to repurchase up to approximately 912 million shares, equivalent to nearly 10% of total issued equity.
This authorization provides considerable flexibility for continued share acquisitions should the downward price trajectory persist. As of late June, the company’s market capitalization has fluctuated between approximately $470 billion and $485 billion.
Despite the extensive buyback activity, Tencent’s shares remained down 1.8% for June. This compares favorably to the Hang Seng Tech Index, which experienced a more severe 10% decline during the same timeframe.
Should June conclude in negative territory, it would represent the company’s fifth consecutive monthly loss, establishing the longest losing streak since 2018.
Tencent’s situation reflects broader industry trends. Citigroup analysts, including Alicia Yap, anticipate increased buyback activity across Chinese internet firms as companies attempt to retain investor confidence. Meituan’s chief executive recently characterized the food delivery platform as “severely undervalued” and announced plans for its own repurchase program.
Both Meituan and Alibaba shares have declined approximately 35% year-to-date. Regarding valuation metrics, Tencent currently trades at 11.2 times one-year forward earnings, representing an all-time low for the company and falling below utility operator CLP Holdings, which trades above 15 times earnings.
This month, Tencent initiated testing of a new AI-powered assistant integrated into WeChat, branded as Weixin domestically, as part of its strategy to remain competitive with local AI developers.
Crypto World
Nasdaq-100: Price Concentrates Within the Market Profile Zone
Last week was one of the worst for US technology stocks since the beginning of 2026, with the index losing around 4.6% under the influence of two opposing factors. Firstly, the market continued to reassess the pace of returns on AI infrastructure investment — concerns that spending is outpacing actual returns triggered a sell-off in semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling nearly 8% over the week. Secondly, the US-Iran conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend: Tehran claimed responsibility for attacks on commercial vessels, while the US responded with air strikes. By Monday morning, tensions had eased somewhat as both sides announced a temporary halt to hostilities and agreed to hold talks in Doha on Tuesday. Against this backdrop, Nasdaq-100 futures gained around 1.1%.
Technical Picture

On the four-hour chart, the Nasdaq-100 (NDXm on FXOpen) has been trading within a sideways range since May, bounded by support near 28,600 and resistance around 30,700 — a range that formed following the June peak. After reaching that peak, the index experienced a sharp decline on 9 June, accompanied by exceptionally high trading volume. As a result of buyers defending the local lows, the price has since concentrated near the centre of the current range.
At present, the price is holding above the POC zone at 29,440–29,460, which may be viewed by market participants as the key point of attraction within the range. The price is approaching intermediate resistance at the upper boundary of the profile at 29,950, above which lies the red resistance level. RSI + MAs shows readings of 55, 43 and 45 — the oscillator remains above both moving averages, although the moving averages have yet to confirm a potential reversal and remain near the lower boundary of the neutral zone.
Key Takeaways
News of a pause in the US-Iran conflict supported the Nasdaq-100 at the market open, although concerns surrounding AI-related spending remain unresolved and were the primary driver of price action throughout June. The POC zone continues to serve as the key reference point for the balance between supply and demand: this is where the largest concentration of horizontal volume is located, and holding above this area could indicate that the market is preparing to continue its move towards the upper part of the range.
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Crypto World
OUST Stock Explained: The Deals Behind Ouster’s Explosive 28% Rally
Ouster (NASDAQ: OUST) shares jumped by more thab 28% on June 29, extending a multi-week rally that has taken the stock to near $55.
The move follows a stack of newly announced manufacturing and partnership deals tied to the company’s Rev8 lidar platform.
What Is Driving Ouster Stock Higher
Ouster is a San Francisco-based lidar company, founded in 2015 by Angus Pacala and Mark Frichtl, that makes high-resolution digital lidar sensors giving 3D vision to vehicles, robots, drones, and fixed infrastructure like traffic systems.
Year-to-date, the company is up 142%, but on Monday, it rose 28.68% in a single day. Trading volume on the rally days has run several times above Ouster’s average. The stock’s 52-week high was set in the same stretch at around $54.
The centerpiece of the run is an expanded manufacturing partnership with Benchmark Electronics. Ouster is committed to building more than 100,000 Rev8 OS digital lidar sensors per year over a 10-year horizon, targeting industrial, robotics, automotive, and smart infrastructure customers.
Ouster also signed a multi-year agreement with AIM Intelligent Machines to supply Rev8 native-color lidar for autonomous heavy equipment. The deal targets retrofitting mining, construction, and defense machinery into self-driving fleets.
AIM designed its autonomy kit to install in under 24 hours without voiding equipment warranties, and it can run without cellular networks, cloud access, or GPS. That offline capability matters for remote mining sites and defense applications where no one can guarantee connectivity.
The Risks Behind the Rally
Ouster still isn’t making money. The company brought in about $169 million in revenue over the past year and keeps a healthy chunk of that as gross profit, but after covering operating costs, it’s losing money, and it’s burning cash too. On the plus side, Ouster has little debt and plenty of cash on hand, so it isn’t under pressure to raise money anytime soon.
That said, the stock price has run well ahead of the business itself. Investors are now paying a steep premium relative to Ouster’s sales. This is the kind of pricing that assumes a lot of future growth actually shows up. Company insiders have also sold tens of millions of dollars’ worth of shares over the past three months.
The real test comes at Ouster’s next earnings report on August 6. That’s when investors will find out whether the Benchmark, AIM Intelligent Machines, and FieldAI deals are actually turning into revenue. Or, whether the stock has gotten ahead of what the company can currently deliver.
Robotics and Government Deals Add Momentum
A separate collaboration with FieldAI puts Rev8 lidar into general-purpose robots built for unstructured environments. The deal broadens Ouster’s addressable market beyond passenger vehicles into the wider robotics buildout.
Ouster’s BlueCity traffic management platform has also gone live at more than 40 highway sites near MetLife Stadium. The deployment creates a digital model of traffic flow ahead of matches for the FIFA World Cup. It added roughly 4% to the stock on the announcement.
The post OUST Stock Explained: The Deals Behind Ouster’s Explosive 28% Rally appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Ionic Digital, Celsius-Linked Bitcoin Miner, Targets Nasdaq Direct Listing Amid AI Shift
Ionic Digital, the company formed out of the Celsius Mining restructuring, has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to list on the Nasdaq via a direct listing. The move is designed to create a public trading venue for existing shareholders rather than to generate fresh funding for the business.
In a registration statement submitted on Monday, Ionic said registered stockholders may sell up to 10.8 million shares of Class A stock under the proposed ticker “IOND,” according to the SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007691/000118518526002704/ionicdigis1061026.htm.
Key takeaways
- Ionic Digital has filed for a Nasdaq direct listing that would allow existing shareholders to sell Class A shares, not to raise new capital.
- The company plans to trade under the proposed ticker “IOND,” with up to 10.8 million Class A shares available for sale by registered stockholders.
- Ionic’s strategy is shifting from Bitcoin mining toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.
- A major part of that plan centers on a 234-megawatt Texas power site that the company leased for AI workloads under a long-term contract.
- Recent financial results show leasing revenue rising while Bitcoin mining revenue has declined year over year.
Why the direct listing matters for Celsius creditors
For many participants in the Celsius bankruptcy process, the practical challenge has been converting received restructuring shares into liquid, market-priced assets. Ionic’s filing indicates that the proposed Nasdaq direct listing is meant to address that: the listing “will not raise new capital” and instead establishes a public market for existing shares.
That includes former Celsius creditors who received Ionic shares through the lender’s restructuring plan, the company said in its SEC submission. In other words, the immediate purpose is liquidity and price discovery—important for holders who may otherwise be waiting for private market exits or secondary trading limitations.
From mining operator to AI infrastructure provider
Ionic was formed in 2024 to acquire Celsius Mining’s assets as part of the bankruptcy restructuring. In its filing, the company described a strategic pivot that began in 2025: it is repositioning itself from a Bitcoin-mining-focused business into a digital infrastructure company that serves AI and high-performance computing workloads.
A key element of that pivot is the company’s Ward County property in Texas. The site—originally developed to support Bitcoin mining—has been repurposed for AI infrastructure demand. According to the company, Ionic’s AI strategy is anchored by a long-term lease that turns a mining power base into contracted computing capacity.
The Ward County lease underpins the new revenue model
The SEC filing ties the AI transition to a contract Ionic executed in October 2025. Ionic said it leased the Ward County facility to AI infrastructure provider Nscale under a 126-month agreement. Ionic characterized the deal as nearly $2 billion in contracted revenue.
Importantly, the company noted the contract may be expandable. The agreement could include an additional 89 MW if Ionic secures the necessary capacity and approvals. If that additional capacity is brought into the arrangement, Ionic said the contracted revenue could rise to approximately $2.6 billion, as stated in the filing.
The company also pointed to evidence that its pivot is beginning to reflect in financial reporting. In the first quarter of 2026, Ionic reported $44 million in digital infrastructure leasing revenue. At the same time, it said Bitcoin mining revenue declined 82% year over year to $7.4 million, alongside a reduced number of active miners and the ongoing repurposing of the Ward County site.
Share sale logistics and what comes next
Under the SEC registration statement, registered stockholders may sell up to 10.8 million shares of Ionic’s Class A stock in connection with the proposed direct listing. Because a direct listing does not necessarily involve a traditional underwriting process designed around raising capital, the structure typically emphasizes secondary liquidity—consistent with Ionic’s stated goal that the Nasdaq move is not intended to fund new operations.
The filing also lands after Ionic completed a $400 million equity private placement on Friday, according to company communications referenced in the original coverage. Ionic said the proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, and its CEO, Andy Stewart, indicated the funding supports continued development of its digital infrastructure assets.
For investors and Celsius creditors watching this transition, several details will likely determine how quickly the market starts pricing Ionic’s AI thesis. These include how much additional capacity (if any) is secured beyond the initial contract footprint, and whether leasing revenue keeps growing fast enough to offset the decline in mining-related income.
Near-term, the key question is whether Ionic’s contractual roadmap for AI and high-performance computing continues to translate into steadily increasing reported revenue as Bitcoin operations are further wound down and capacity is redeployed.
Crypto World
Michigan Judge Blocks Kalshi from Allowing Residents to Place Sports Bets
A Michigan judge temporarily blocked prediction market Kalshi from allowing residents to place bets on sporting events, after the state’s attorney general accused the platform of violating gambling laws.
Kalshi was hit with a temporary restraining order from Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina, who said the platform would be fined $120,000 for each day it fails to comply with the order’s geolocation requirements, according to a Monday court filing. The order lasts for 14 days and expires on July 13.
Aquilina wrote that Michigan residents would suffer irreparable harm from being “exploited by Kalshi’s sports betting operation masquerading as an investment opportunity.”
The move adds to the growing regulatory scrutiny on prediction market sports betting. It makes Michigan the second US state to enact a court-ordered ban on Kalshi’s sports event contracts, after Nevada issued a temporary ban on Kalshi earlier in March.
On June 17, Kentucky sued five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms. More than a dozen other states have taken prediction market operators to court.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sued several states, arguing that federally regulated event contracts fall under its exclusive authority.
Cointelegraph has approached Kalshi for comment on how the platform will respond to the verdict.

State of Michigan vs. Kalshi, court filing. Source: Law360
Prediction market sports betting rises after the FIFA World Cup
Sports betting activity has been rising on prediction markets since the beginning of the FIFA World Cup.
Daily taker volume, which measures contracts bought or sold by traders filling existing orders, reached a record $713 million on June 20, according to Dune data. The milestone came more than a week after the World Cup started on June 11.

Daily prediction market taker volume. Source: Dune
Looking at monthly prediction market volume, sports betting was the leading category on the two largest prediction markets, rising 40% to $9.5 billion on Kalshi and 175% to $5.3 billion on Polymarket, Defirate data shows.
A June 11 Bernstein report predicted that the 2026 FIFA World Cup would generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional consumer prediction market volume.
Related: Kalshi in early IPO talks with investment banks: Report
The World Cup winner contract alone has generated over $3.5 billion in trading volume on Polymarket, according to platform data.

World Cup Winner event contract. Source: Polymarket
The growing betting activity helped Polymarket emerge as an onboarding layer for new cryptocurrency users, as about 60% of World Cup bettors interacted with the blockchain for the first time during their prediction market entry, according to a Bitget Wallet study of 857,000 users, shared with Cointelegraph.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Crypto World
Japanese Yen Falls to Four-Decade Low as Tokyo Signals Decisive Action
The Japanese yen slid to its weakest level since 1986, putting Tokyo back under pressure to defend the currency.
The currency has declined more than 2% this quarter. The latest drop marks its fourth consecutive quarterly loss, the longest losing streak since 2022, when the currency weakened for seven straight quarters.
Tokyo Signals Readiness to Act
On Tuesday, the yen touched an intraday low of 162.4 per dollar. At press time, it stood at 162.1.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities stood ready to respond to currency moves at any time.
“This includes taking decisive action, as confirmed between Japan and the US,” she said
Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said the government would work to build an economy less exposed to foreign-exchange swings while remaining prepared to intervene if needed.
Japan has already spent heavily to slow the decline. Authorities deployed a record 11.7 trillion yen, or $72.25 billion, between late April and late May. The yen still resumed its fall once that support faded.
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The Bank of Japan has also continued tightening monetary policy. It recently raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%, following a December hike to 0.75%.
Still, strategists doubt that intervention alone can reverse the trend. Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, called intervention a question of when, not if.
“However, any intervention is unlikely to reverse the broader uptrend in USD/JPY. We forecast USD/JPY to keep rising to 164 by early 2027,” she said.
Fed Outlook Adds Pressure
Higher US rate expectations have further undercut the yen. Traders now price a 63.1% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September after three months of stronger-than-expected payroll gains.
Attention is now turning to Thursday’s US employment data for June. A Reuters survey projects 110,000 new jobs for the month.
A strong print would reinforce bets on a Fed rate hike, widening the yield gap that has driven the yen lower. A weaker number could hand Tokyo a softer dollar to lean on if it chooses to step in.
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The post Japanese Yen Falls to Four-Decade Low as Tokyo Signals Decisive Action appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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