Will Bitcoin End Its Sideways Move Below $70K With This Setup?

Bitcoin (BTC) trades in a tight $65,000–$70,000 range on Wednesday, a structure that has held for the past two weeks.

The lower time frames show a bullish divergence, signaling fading short-term selling pressure, while futures data indicate fresh long positions opened from $66,000.

Analysts say the compression may precede a breakout attempt, with liquidity clusters below $66,000 and above $71,000 being the zones that may define the next directional move.

Bitcoin’s bullish divergence rests near a support level

On the one-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a descending channel similar to last week’s structure that preceded a move toward $70,000. Within this channel, a clear bullish divergence has developed in the relative strength index indicator (RSI).

A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes lower lows or equal lows while the RSI prints higher lows. This sequence suggests that selling pressure is losing strength on the shorter time frame.

A sustained break above $68,000 may confirm momentum, leading to a price rally toward the external liquidity and resistance level above $71,500. 

The invalidation level sits below $66,000, where internal liquidity is present near the $65,000. A breakdown beneath that region invalidates the divergence setup and shifts focus to the higher-time-frame support range between $62,000 and $60,000.

Derivatives data shows aggregated open interest has climbed 3% to $15.50 billion from $15.10 billion over the past two days, even as the price drifted lower.

The aggregated funding rate has ticked higher to 0.046%, suggesting a growing long exposure from futures traders. 

Since Feb. 15, roughly $250 million in aggregated long liquidations have occurred, forcing leveraged positions to close below $67,000. These long-side sell-offs reduce excess leverage, which may stabilize price and create better conditions for an uptrend once traders re-engage in the market. 

Related: Bitcoin’s tech stock divergence is a ‘fire alarm’ for fiat: Arthur Hayes

Futures momentum and macro positioning

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted a sharp drop in Binance Bitcoin futures power 30-day change, which tracks the net change in price, funding, and open interest. The index fell to -0.18, matching levels last seen between April and May 2024.

Taha said that this may mark a turning point for BTC, as similar deep negative readings between April and May 2024 led to a strong rebound that pushed Bitcoin above the $100,000 level, once the index turned positive in the latter half of 2024. 

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Dom said that the spot order books show thin liquidity between $66,000 and $69,000, describing the current activity as neutral, with BTC’s price compressing ahead of a breakout attempt. 

Liquidity heatmaps shared by BTC trader Daan show dense liquidity clusters below $66,000 and above $71,000, pointing to areas where stop orders and resting positions are likely concentrated.

Related: Bitcoin 2024 buyers steady BTC price as trader sees $52K ‘next week or so’