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Will BTC Slide Under $80K Next?

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BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit

Bitcoin has pulled back sharply, slipping roughly 10% from midweek into Thursday and testing the $81,000 level for the first time in more than two months. The move comes as traders digest a wave of outflows from spot BTC exchange-traded funds, alongside a broader risk-off tone that coincided with gold’s retreat from its own all-time high. The backdrop is a market increasingly focused on hedging and liquidity, with options markets flashing notable fear metrics just as leveraged bets have been unwound. The price action also underscores a crucial test for the $80,000 support area, which—while still intact—faces renewed scrutiny as investors weigh macro risks and the possibility of renewed volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) experiences a pullback after a period of outsized moves, and the tissue of market signals suggests traders are cooling risk exposure in the near term. The drop comes on the back of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs showing material net outflows, while gold prices have dipped from their Wednesday peak. In this context, the market’s nervous undertone is evident in the options market, where fear is elevated and hedging activity appears more pronounced than at any point in recent months.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The latest data shows US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $2.7 billion in net outflows since January 16, representing roughly 2.3% of total assets under management. This backdrop has raised questions about institutional demand and whether investors are layering into safer havens or stepping back from risk assets altogether. At the same time, gold has declined about 13% from its Wednesday high, reminding traders that multi-asset markets can move in tandem when liquidity tightens and macro narratives shift. The combination of ETF redemptions and precious metal dynamics has contributed to a cautious mood that could extend into the near term, even as some investors point to longer-term value cases for BTC as a potential hedge against inflation and currency risk.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin options delta skew rose to 17% on Friday, its highest level in more than a year, signaling extreme fear and heightened hedging activity as market makers prepare for further downside protection.
  • Net outflows from US-listed spot BTC ETFs totaled about $2.7 billion since Jan 16, equating to roughly 2.3% of assets under management and raising questions about institutional demand.
  • The price correction reached about 10%, with BTC retesting the $81,000 area—the first proximity to that level in over two months—raising the specter of a soft test of the psychological $80k support.
  • Approximately $860 million in leveraged long BTC futures positions were liquidated between Thursday and Friday, while aggregate BTC futures open interest fell to about $46 billion from around $58 billion three months prior, indicating deleveraging across the market.
  • Stablecoin dynamics in cross-border flows suggested moderation rather than a rush for cash, with a 0.2% discount for USDT/CNY versus the US dollar/CNY, contrasting with traditional parity expectations and signaling cautious liquidity conditions.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Bearish

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Price impact: Negative

Market context: The current dynamics sit at the intersection of risk-off trading, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face persistent headwinds, investors have favored liquidity and short-duration exposures, which often translate into pressure on highly leveraged crypto positions and volatility spikes in liquid markets like BTC.

Why it matters

The surge in BTC options fear, mirrored by a jump in delta skew, points to a market structure that is increasingly sensitive to downside risk. When put options carry a premium relative to calls, market makers hedge with heightened caution, amplifying price swings in times of stress. The 17% delta skew suggests that the market is more willing to pay for downside protection than to bet on further upside, a condition that can feed upon itself if macro catalysts continue to weigh on sentiment. In this environment, traders must monitor not just price levels but the pace and direction of hedging activity, as it can create feedback loops that drive rapid short-term moves.

ETF flows are a useful lens into the institutional appetite for BTC as an asset class. The reported $2.7 billion of net outflows since mid-January, representing 2.3% of AUM, signals institutional demand softness even as retail participants can remain active. Outflows from spot BTC ETFs can compress price durability if buyers do not re-enter in meaningful size, particularly when risk-off sentiment is reinforced by other macro variables. This backdrop also coincides with gold’s multi-month rally being tempered by short-term retracements, underscoring a broader competition for capital across safe-haven assets. In this light, BTC’s price action becomes a barometer for risk sentiment in the crypto space and a gauge of how quickly demand can swing in response to macro cues.

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Beyond the price action, the risk narrative extends into the realm of technology risk like quantum computing. While some market participants remain skeptical about imminent disruption to the cryptographic foundations of blockchains, others warn that long-term security considerations must be taken seriously. Independent research and ongoing dialogue within the industry—highlighted by initiatives such as Coinbase’s advisory board aimed at evaluating quantum threats with public research slated for early 2027—add a layer of forward-looking risk assessment to the conversation. The broader takeaway is that risk considerations—whether macro, technological, or liquidity-driven—are increasingly intertwined in shaping crypto markets.

BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit
BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

Analysts note that a cooling in leverage can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, a deleveraging phase can reduce systemic risk and limit cascading liquidations, potentially stabilizing prices after a sharp correction. On the other hand, if risk appetite does not return, the market could remain range-bound with occasional reversals as participants digest incoming data and reassess risk premium. The combination of a lower open interest and notable liquidations suggests a shift toward a more conservative posture among traders, even as some investors argue that the long-term bull case for BTC remains intact. The ongoing debates around quantum security and the ongoing debate about institutional appetite will likely shape how quickly the market can stage a renewed rally if macro and crypto-specific catalysts align.

BTC futures aggregate open interest
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The futures market remains a useful lens into risk sentiment. With open interest sliding to $46 billion from a prior $58 billion, and with a substantial portion of long positions liquidated, the market appears to be purging excess leverage. This process can improve resilience over the longer term, but it can also prolong volatility in the near term if demand remains tepid or if new catalysts emerge. The broader ecosystem will watch how quickly liquidity returns, how ETF flows evolve, and whether macro narratives shift back toward risk-on or risk-off dynamics. In this context, BTC’s ability to reclaim momentum will hinge on more than just price—it will require a rebalancing of demand across institutions, traders, and retail participants alike.

As markets calibrate to these dynamics, traders will keep an eye on stablecoin liquidity signals as a proxy for overall risk appetite. The ratio of USDT to yuan and the implied USDT/CNY vs USD/CNY relationship offer a barometer of capital flight and the willingness of traders to move into on-chain assets or exit to cash. In the current climate, a modest 0.2% discount suggests a measured outflow rather than a rush for liquidity, reinforcing the narrative of caution rather than panic selling. This nuanced picture—combining price action, leverage cycles, and cross-asset flows—frames BTC as a barometer of risk sentiment rather than a standalone driver of returns in the near term.

What to watch next

  • BTC price action around the $81,000–$87,000 band, with a focus on whether the asset can reclaim momentum and establish a new upside base.
  • New ETF net flow data over the coming weeks, to determine whether institutional demand resumes or remains tepid.
  • Deribit and other derivatives gauges (delta skew, volatility surfaces) for signs of fading fear or renewed hedging pressure.
  • Any fresh developments on macro frontiers that could alter risk appetites, including inflation data and policy signals.

Sources & verification

  • Bitcoin price retest near $81,000 and related market moves (price page and price data references).
  • US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows totaling about $2.7 billion since Jan 16 (2.3% of AUM).
  • Gold’s three-month performance and its interaction with crypto markets (gold-related article referencing divergence).
  • BTC options delta skew reaching 17% (Deribit delta skew data; laevitas.ch source).
  • Reported leveraged long BTC futures liquidations around $860 million; open interest decline from $58B to $46B (CoinGlass and related charts).
  • Stablecoin liquidity indicators and USDT/CNY dynamics (OKX-based data visuals and captions).
  • Coinbase advisory board on quantum computing risks and public research planned for early 2027.
  • Related market analysis on potential “liquidation revenge” dynamics and BTC price catalysts.

Bitcoin market dynamics: options fear, ETF flows, and macro risk

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has found itself navigating a confluence of hedging-driven activity, ETF liquidity, and broader macro risk signals. The most notable marker is the jump in the delta skew of BTC options to 17%—the highest in more than a year—indicating an elevated demand for downside protection that can feed into heightened volatility as market makers hedge. This condition often materializes when traders anticipate more downside or when liquidity is contracting, even if the immediate price path appears uncertain. The practical upshot is that any negative surprise—be it a policy shift, macro data release, or unexpected liquidity shock—can trigger outsized moves as hedges unwind or recalibrate in a hurry. The Deribit delta skew metric depicted in the chart below, with its sourcing from laevitas.ch, offers a window into the market’s fear gauge and the distribution of risk bets across the spectrum of options contracts.

BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit
BTC 2-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The recent price action, meanwhile, reflects not only fear but real liquidity dynamics. Leverage in the system has been purged to some degree, with approximately $860 million in leveraged long BTC futures liquidations observed between Thursday and Friday. While this purge reduces systemic risk in the near term, it also underscores how fragile short-term sentiment can become when a dramatic price swing occurs. At the same time, aggregate BTC futures open interest slipped to about $46 billion, down from roughly $58 billion three months ago, signaling a cautious tilt among market participants and a shift away from highly leveraged bets. The chart below from CoinGlass illustrates the current open interest landscape and helps contextualize the scale of deleveraging occurring in the market.

BTC futures aggregate open interest
BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Beyond outright price risk, the market is watching cross-asset flow signals, especially stablecoins, as a proxy for risk appetite. The current data indicate a modest shift in the USDT/CNY dynamic, with a 0.2% discount to the US dollar/CNY rate, indicating moderate outflows rather than an abrupt liquidity crunch. This stands in contrast to a typical 0.5%–1% premium and suggests that, at least in the near term, investors remain selective about their allocation to on-chain assets. Taken together with the price correction and the outflows from spot BTC ETFs, these indicators paint a cautious portrait: BTC could reclaim momentum if flows stabilize and risk sentiment improves, but the near-term path remains tethered to macro twists and the pace of institutional adoption.

In the broader context, investors should consider the potential implications of quantum computing risks on long-term security models for blockchains. While the field remains in early stages, industry observers emphasize the importance of ongoing research and preparedness. As Coinbase has signaled through its independent advisory board and forthcoming public research, this is a risk factor that could influence long-horizon holdings, even if it does not pose an immediate threat to today’s networks. At the same time, the market continues to watch for catalysts, such as potential policy shifts, ETF inflows, or regulatory developments, that could tilt risk sentiment in either direction. For now, the narrative is one of measured caution, with a focus on liquidity, hedging, and the durability of BTC’s longer-term value proposition in a rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

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Crypto Week Ahead

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Sam Bankman-Fried files for new trial over FTX fraud charges

The final week of March is shaping up to be a volatile one, with the FTX Recovery Trust set to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday and the key U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls statistic due Friday, when many equity markets worldwide will be closed for Good Friday.

The war in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, is also critical. The conflict has disrupted major energy infrastructure and transport in the region, in turn leading to higher inflation expectations and a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations, Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.

“Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, typically responds earlier to shifts in risk appetite and has repriced lower since October 2025,” Deans said. “This suggests that digital assets began reflecting tighter financial conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets.”

Global macro forces, he added, remain the primary drivers of risk sentiment. While liquidity will certainly play a role, the market backdrop remains fragile given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

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What to Watch

(All times ET)

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 30, 9:30 p.m.: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 49.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.5)
    • March 31, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash for March (Prev. 1.9%); Core (Prev. 2.4%)
    • March 31, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev. 1.4%)
    • March 31, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. Chicago PMI for March (Prev. 57.7)
    • March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Prev. 91.2)
    • March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for February (Prev. 6.946M)
    • March 31, 07:50 p.m.: Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 (Prev. 15)
    • April 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for March (Prev. 63K)
    • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 52.4)
    • April 2, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending March 28 (Prev. 210K)
    • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for March est. 48K (Prev. -92K)
    • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for March est. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
    • April 3, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March (Prev. 56.1)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market

Token Events

  • Governance Votes & Calls
    • Stake DAO CRV and BAL are voting on their bi-weekly gauge to allocate CRV and BAL inflation across various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
    • SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
    • Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT emissions to a flat daily rate, increase the node staking requirement, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront appchain token allocation. Voting ends March 31.
    • Unlock DAO is voting to transfer 3 ETH to its Base multisig to swap for USDC to cover current and future operational expenses. Voting ends April 2.
    • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to elect nine multi-sig signers, maintain a 5-of-9 signature threshold, and set their quarterly compensation at $1,000 paid in GHST. Voting ends April 2.
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting across two proposals to transition its Code of Conduct and Procedures into living documents managed by OpCo, and to upgrade to ArbOS 60 Elara. Voting ends April 2.
    • SSV Network DAO is voting across two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to enhance security against phishing, and to establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
    • Lisk DAO is voting to test the Degov.ai governance platform ahead of Tally’s shutdown by executing a 0 LSK transfer. Voting ends April 7.
  • Unlocks
    • April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
    • April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.05 million.
    • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.66% of its circulating supply worth $379.31 million.
  • Token Launches
    • March 30: BASED token generation event to occur.
    • March 31: edgeX (EDGE) token generation event to occur.
    • March 31: WorldLand (WL) to be listed on KuCoin, Gate, and others.
    • April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period after the token generation event.

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Aave launches on OKX’s X Layer to expand on-chain lending access

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Aave launches on OKX’s X Layer to expand on-chain lending access

Decentralized lending protocol Aave has officially launched on Ethereum layer 2 X Layer.

Summary

  • Aave has launched on X Layer, enabling OKX Wallet users to lend, borrow, and earn yield directly on the network without bridging assets.
  • X Layer, developed by OKX, has seen limited growth so far, with about $25 million in total value locked.

According to the official announcement, the launch will allow OKX Wallet users and DeFi participants to directly supply assets, borrow against collateral, and earn yield on the network without having to use a separate wallet or bridge assets across chains.

X Layer was developed by OKX and launched in 2024, but network growth has been relatively slow so far, with the chain holding only about $25 million in total value locked as of press time.

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Onboarding Aave could significantly strengthen liquidity and expand the network’s DeFi capabilities.

“With a multi-year track record across more than a dozen blockchain networks and a 60% market share of DeFi lending, Aave is the largest and most trusted onchain lending network, with over $46 billion in supply & borrow. Its arrival on X Layer brings that same battle-tested infrastructure to OKX’s L2 ecosystem, permissionless, non-custodial, and accessible directly from OKX Wallet,” OKX said.

As part of the expansion, users can supply assets including USDT0, USDG, GHO, xBTC, xETH, xSOL, xBETH, and xOKSOL to earn yield that compounds automatically while retaining custody of their tokens.

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Further, users will be able to borrow assets such as USDT0, USDG, GHO, xBTC, xETH, and xSOL against their collateral without any credit check or intermediary.

To access the service, OKX Wallet users just need to open the wallet, navigate to Aave through the DApps section, and connect to the X Layer network.

The latest expansion follows the launch of Orbit, a social trading platform that the crypto exchange introduced earlier this month.

As previously covered, Orbit is designed to combine social media-style interaction with trading tools, allowing users to share strategies, discuss market developments, and follow experienced traders in real time.

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Around the same time, OKX disclosed a strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange, with the deal set to give ICE a seat on the company’s board.

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Ripple Researchers Propose Privacy-Preserving Transfers for XRPL Multi-Purpose Tokens

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The Ripple research team has published a paper on adding transaction privacy to the XRP Ledger (XRPL). 

The paper introduces Confidential Transfers for Multi-Purpose Tokens (Confidential MPTs). The goal is to enable institutional and regulated use cases, with issuer controls such as freezing and clawbacks.

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The paper is authored by Murat Cenk, Aanchal Malhotra, and Joseph Ayo Akinyele. The Confidential MPTs would be a cryptographic extension of the XLS-33 token standard, which went live on the XRPL mainnet in October 2025

The protocol replaces plaintext per-account balances with EC-ElGamal ciphertexts. Furthermore, it uses non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs to enforce transfer correctness and balance sufficiency without requiring decryption by validators. 

Meanwhile, sender and receiver identities remain visible, preserving XRPL’s account-based model

“To accommodate regulatory and institutional requirements, Confidential MPTs provide cryptographic auditability through an on-chain selective-disclosure model based on multi-ciphertext balance representations and equality proofs, while remaining compatible with simpler issuer-mediated audit models,” the abstract reads.

The timing aligns with shifting regulatory attitudes toward on-chain privacy. In a recent report submitted to Congress in early March, the US Treasury Department acknowledged that lawful users of digital assets may rely on mixers when transacting on public blockchains.

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The privacy paper arrives as Ripple simultaneously strengthens the network’s security foundation. The firm recently outlined an AI-driven security strategy for XRPL.

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The post Ripple Researchers Propose Privacy-Preserving Transfers for XRPL Multi-Purpose Tokens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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DeFi Tokens Face Pressure as CLARITY Act Targets Stablecoin Yields

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Proposed legislation would prohibit stablecoins from generating yields, limiting them to payment functions exclusively
  • The change would redirect yield opportunities toward traditional banking and money market instruments
  • Popular DeFi platforms including Uniswap, Aave, and Compound may encounter stricter regulations on value distribution
  • Trading volumes, liquidity depth, and token demand across DeFi could decline significantly
  • Regulated stablecoin issuers like Circle stand to gain from tighter integration with payment systems

The most recent iteration of the CLARITY Act has sparked significant discussion around its stablecoin provisions. Industry experts warn that decentralized finance tokens may bear the brunt of the legislation’s consequences.

Under the proposed framework, stablecoins would be prohibited from providing yields or any similar incentive structures, including balance-based rewards. This restriction would fundamentally transform stablecoins into payment instruments rather than blockchain-based savings vehicles.

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Markus Thielen, who established 10x Research, indicated that the legislation would effectively channel yield opportunities back into conventional financial systems. Traditional banks, money market vehicles, and compliant financial products would capture these benefits, while cryptocurrency-native services would lose competitive advantage in offering returns.

Initial speculation suggested that DeFi platforms might actually attract more users if centralized crypto services were prevented from distributing yields. The theory presumed capital would migrate toward onchain alternatives.

However, Thielen challenged this assumption. He explained that the CLARITY regulatory structure would probably apply to user-facing platforms and token economics, especially when fee structures or governance mechanisms begin resembling equity instruments.

Potential Impact on DeFi Platforms

This regulatory approach places numerous DeFi initiatives under scrutiny. Decentralized trading venues and lending services may encounter fresh restrictions governing their operations and value distribution mechanisms.

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Platforms such as Uniswap, Sushi, and dYdX face potential consequences, alongside lending services like Aave and Compound. Enhanced regulatory oversight might trigger diminished trading activity, thinner liquidity pools, and decreased token valuations, the 10x Research analysis suggests.

The fundamental question centers on whether these platforms can maintain fee distribution or incentive programs for token holders without triggering new stablecoin-focused regulations.

Thielen observed that distinguishing between governance tokens and regulated financial instruments grows increasingly complex within this regulatory framework.

Circle Positioned for Potential Gains

The legislation wouldn’t create obstacles for every cryptocurrency entity. Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, might emerge as a beneficiary under the proposed rules.

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Thielen characterized the regulation as fundamentally favorable for infrastructure providers like Circle. Should stablecoins become embedded within payment networks, issuers maintaining robust regulatory compliance would secure advantageous positions.

The CLARITY Act continues advancing through the legislative pipeline. Congress has not yet enacted a final version.

While stablecoin provisions dominate policy discussions in Washington, industry analysts emphasize that the ripple effects across DeFi ecosystems deserve equal attention.

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White House App Sparks Privacy Fears Over Tracking and Data Collection

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Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications

A new app from the US government has sparked concerns among users and researchers over potential location-tracking features, security vulnerabilities and data collection.

The White House launched the app on Friday as a way for users to get a “direct line to the White House,” including receiving breaking news alerts on major government announcements, watching livestreams and keeping up to date on “policy breakthroughs.”

However, users on X have raised concerns about the permissions required to use the app, including access to the device’s location, shared storage and network activity, though these claims have not been independently verified.

While many apps often request location permissions and can log user data, an app launched by the federal government requesting this information can invite additional concerns. 

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However, both listings on the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store currently do not display these warnings.

A White House app privacy policy said it automatically stores information about the originating Internet Protocol (IP) address and other basic information, while it can retain names and email addresses of subscribers, though these are not required to use the app.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Tyler Oakley

Cointelegraph has contacted the White House for comment.

Security engineer says GPS tracking is part of the app

On the app’s Google Play Store page, it states that personal data, including phone numbers and email addresses, may be collected through download and use. Apple’s App Store, meanwhile, directs users to the White House’s privacy policy.

A software developer using the X handle Thereallo, along with Adam, a security engineer and infrastructure architect, say they have identified code suggesting the app could access a device’s GPS for tracking.

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While the feature is common across a number of apps, Adam said it is unusual for location-tracking services to be in software that does not appear to need them.

“There is no map, no local news, no geofencing, no events near you, no weather. Nothing in the app that requires location,” he added.

Concerns of GPS tracking every 4.5 minutes

Thereallo made a similar claim that the app includes code that could enable tracking a device every 4.5 minutes in the foreground and 9.5 minutes in the background, though this has not been independently verified.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Thereallo

They found that it still requires permission but warned that it is only “one call away from activating,” and that the tracking “infrastructure is there, ready to go.”

Related: Trump advisory council draws Coinbase co-founder, tech leaders

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At the same time, Thereallo said the app is collecting other data such as notification interactions, in-app message clicks and phone number.

Security could be broken, researcher says

Adam said the app’s security may also be weak enough for a technically skilled person to intercept its data or alter its functionality

“Anyone on the same Wi-Fi network, say, at a coffee shop, an airport, or a congressional hearing room, can intercept API traffic with a proxy. Anyone with a jailbroken device can hook and modify the app’s behavior at runtime,” he said.

“No servers were probed. No network traffic was intercepted. No DRM was bypassed. No tools were used that require jailbreaking. Everything described here is observable by anyone who downloads the app from the App Store and has a terminal.”

Magazine: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF undercuts BlackRock, SBF pardon unlikely: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28

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