Bitcoin held a steady line through a weekend marked by geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East, easing some of the stress that had rippled through risk assets. The benchmark cryptocurrency kept its bearings around the mid-to-high $60,000s as traders weighed potential supply disruptions, oil price volatility, and the staying power of traditional markets. While the narrative around the Strait of Hormuz and regional tensions added a geopolitical layer to the narrative, Bitcoin and broader crypto markets avoided a sudden breakout, instead trading in a relatively tight corridor as weekend liquidity faded and futures markets prepared for the Monday open.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin started the week near $67,000 after a volatile weekend, with traders watching how U.S. markets would react to ongoing regional tensions.
• Trading data pointed to a lingering focus on a notable CME futures gap at $65,880, a potential “fill” area that could influence short-term moves.
• Oil-price risk rose as Tehran signaled actions around the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about inflationary pressures and their potential impact on risk sentiment.
• Analysts offered mixed views: some described the initial response as positive, while others warned that the market could drift until macro catalysts clear, including the U.S. opening and inflation data.
• The crowd of strategists and traders continues to eye a possible relief rally if Bitcoin can reclaim momentum above critical moving-average levels and push toward the high-$70,000s range.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. Price action remained range-bound despite regional tensions and a looming data calendar.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Monitor the Monday open and the CME gap as liquidity returns to the market.

Market context: The weekend period saw traditional markets digesting geopolitical headlines as traders awaited U.S. opening dynamics and inflation-related data. Early signs showed U.S. stock futures down roughly 0.65% as traders braced for potential volatility once liquidity returned to normal levels, underscoring a cautious risk-on environment for crypto assets as well.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s behavior in the wake of regional turmoil underscores how the asset class often behaves as a macro sponge—quick to absorb risk-off impulses and slower to trend during periods of mixed signals. The tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East flare-up adds a persistent inflationary lens to the discussion. Oil markets, which frequently respond to geopolitical headlines, can—by extension—spark concerns about energy costs feeding into consumer prices. A notable moment referenced by market observers is the potential for inflation to surprise to the upside, a scenario some analysts say could lift traditional hedges or drive risk assets into a different regime.

On the technical front, traders highlighted Bitcoin’s proximity to a key moving-average level as a potential fulcrum. The 21-day simple moving average, an often-watchful gauge for short- to mid-term momentum, sat near a critical threshold that, if breached, could accelerate a relief rally. Observers like Michaël van de Poppe framed the setup in a nuanced way, noting that while the initial reaction to weekend events looked “positive,” markets needed to clear the CME gap and establish a higher low before committing to a sustained move higher. This view aligns with a broader narrative that price action over the next few sessions could depend as much on opening prints in the United States as on any headline flow from abroad.

“On the other hand, the 21-Day MA needs to break in order to have a relief rally. I think we’ll see it in March/April, question of how we’re opening the markets tomorrow and whether it finds a higher low.”

Data from TradingView tracked BTC/USD action as traders focused on the $67,000 region after the weekend’s headlines, painting a picture of a market waiting for a catalyst to push beyond a short-term ceiling. The absence of a decisive breakout did not surprise all participants, given the complexity of the macro backdrop and the potential for a “gap fill” scenario as futures markets settle into Monday’s session. A number of technicians agreed that a break above the immediate resistance zone could set the stage for a move toward the $73,000–$74,000 zone, underscoring how volatile macro drivers can unfold into a structured technical chase for price targets in the near term.

Beyond the chart, the weekend narrative included other voices pointing to why a breakout could be delayed. Some market participants argued that geopolitical risk had already been priced in to an extent, with the market absorbing headlines and awaiting a clearer signal from U.S. policy and data releases. Crypto traders—who often weigh cross-asset correlations—emphasized that the next few sessions would likely hinge on how traditional markets respond when liquidity returns and whether risk appetite recovers or remains cautious. “We will probably move sideways in the next days,” reasoned another active trader, highlighting the ongoing balance between geopolitical risk and macro resilience.

The macro overlay extended to inflation concerns. The Kobeissi Letter’s thread, drawing on JPMorgan research, suggested the possibility of a fresh inflation spike that could push the U.S. Consumer Price Index higher—potentially around 5%—a development that would feed into both equity and crypto dynamics. This thread arrived in the context of recent U.S. inflation prints that had already surprised to the upside, notably with the latest Producer Price Index data underscoring that the floor for inflation might be sticky rather than easily transitory. In parallel, market observers referenced Bitcoin’s historical dynamics—such as metrics that point to elevated longer-horizon returns in certain cycles—to anchor expectations for how BTC might respond as macro conditions evolve. A related discussion on a widely cited price metric is available in a Cointelegraph piece that linked to a longer-term pattern, illustrating how historically prolonged uptrends have unfolded in response to regime changes in inflation and liquidity.

As the weekend wound down, a chorus of voices underscored the nuances of the setup. Crypto influencers and traders reminded audiences that headlines alone rarely deliver a sustained move; instead, the probability of a meaningful rebound depends on the confluence of technical breakouts, macro data, and the opening tone of U.S. markets. The crosswinds—from geopolitical tensions to inflation risk—mean Bitcoin’s path may be less about a single trigger and more about a sequence of catalysts aligning in the weeks ahead.

What to watch next

• Monday open: observe whether U.S. equities’ early direction validates or contradicts the weekend narrative, particularly as the CME gap at 65,880 remains a potential target for a fill.
• BTC price action around 67,000: monitor if the asset can hold this level or accelerate toward the upper target near 73,000–74,000 based on momentum signals and moving-average dynamics.
• Oil and inflation linkage: track oil price movements and any fresh inflation data releases that could reframe risk sentiment and liquidity expectations.
• Futures and liquidity cycles: pay attention to how liquidity returns in the coming days and whether any new macro surprises push risk assets into a fresh regime.
• Geopolitical headlines: continue to monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional tensions, as these could reintroduce volatility into risk assets and affect hedges like BTC.

Sources & verification

• Trading view data showing BTC price activity around $67,000 after the latest Middle East events (TradingView).
• Discussion and charts cited by Michaël van de Poppe on X about the 21-day moving average and potential resistance turned support levels.
• Market commentary on the CME futures gap at $65,880 and its potential relevance to near-term price action.
• References to inflation risk and CPI considerations from JPMorgan-linked discussions in the Kobeissi Letter thread (KobeissiLetter).
• Cointelegraph coverage linking to inflation data and the broader macro narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s historical performance in higher-inflation regimes (Cointelegraph).
• Bitcoin historical price metric references and longer-term return discussions (Bitcoin historical price metric …).
• Direct posts from market participants on X offering perspectives on near-term price trajectories (Michaël van de Poppe, BitBull, Crypto Caesar).

Bitcoin steadies as geopolitical tensions test risk appetite

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) threshold dynamics dominated the narrative as regional headlines intersected with macro data expectations. The asset’s late-week price action found support near the $67,000 level, consistent with a broad risk-off-to-risk-on tug-of-war that markets have navigated throughout the weekend. While some participants argued that a relief rally could unfold if momentum gathers and key moving-average levels break, others emphasized the need for a clear bullish trigger—one that could come from a favorable Monday open or a cooling of inflation concerns. The combination of a cautious open from U.S. equities and a disciplined approach to risk deployment shaped the tone for the early week, with traders eyeing a potential test of the CME gap and a move toward higher targets if liquidity and sentiment cooperate.

Trading data pointed to ongoing technical work in BTC’s near-term chart. The 21-day moving average, a key reference for many short-term traders, sits at a level that many watch as a potential springboard for momentum. As one veteran analyst noted, decisive action above that threshold could catalyze a more pronounced move, while a failure to gain traction could prolong a consolidative phase. In parallel, market observers highlighted the role of the CME’s futures market in shaping intraday risk, with the gap below the current price acting as a potential magnet for price action if markets shift into risk-on mode.

The macro backdrop—particularly inflation dynamics and energy-price volatility—adds a layer of complexity to Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Strait of Hormuz could become a focal point for oil markets, and any supply concerns tend to reverberate through inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Analysts who have studied post-crisis price cycles note that inflation shocks can align with crypto cycles in nuanced ways: liquidity remains a critical piece, but the direction of flow—whether into crypto as a hedge or as an alt-risk asset—depends on how investors digest the evolving macro picture. In this context, Bitcoin’s price range-bound behavior over the weekend can be seen as a reflection of a market seeking a credible catalyst rather than chasing headlines.

As market participants refine their models for the week ahead, the broader takeaway is that Bitcoin’s near-term path will hinge on a confluence of factors: a measured Monday opening, the pace at which the CME gap closes, and any renewed guidance from inflation and energy data. The dynamics suggest a market that might remain cautious until a clearer signal coalesces, even as some voices project a path toward the $73,000–$74,000 zone should momentum swing in BTC’s favor. The coming days will reveal whether the technical setup can convert into a sustained trend or whether traders revert to a wait-and-see posture in response to macro uncertainty.

XRP went through intense volatility on Saturday, but it had nothing to do with the ETFs.

Although they have ended the underwhelming zero-inflow-day streak, the spot XRP ETFs are still far away from their initial glory in terms of net inflows.

At the same time, the underlying asset continues to fight with BNB for the fourth spot in the cryptocurrency market cap ranking, but it sits inches below a crucial resistance.

Ripple ETF Inflows Still Missing

CryptoPotato has reported on several occasions on the diminishing activity on the XRP ETF front. The financial vehicles saw under $8 million in net inflows during the trading week that ended on February 13, and less than $2 million in the following one. Moreover, it had three days with zero inflows during this time, a streak that extended to February 23.

However, investors finally picked up the pace in the next four trading days, albeit in a very modest manner. The net inflows stood at $3.04 million on Tuesday, $3.09 million on Wednesday, $1.22 million on Thursday, and $2.21 million on Friday. Overall, the week ended in the green, with $9.55 million entering the funds.

This modest amount is in stark contrast to the initial boom. After the first XRP-focused ETF went live for trading in mid-November, investors were rushing to pour funds into it and the four more such products that followed. Consequently, the cumulative net inflows skyrocketed to the $1 billion mark within a month since Canary Capital’s XRPC saw the light of day.

Since then, though, the trend has seemingly changed. The total net inflows stand at $1.24 billion now, which means that only $240 million has entered the funds in over two months.

XRP Fights BNB

Saturday was an eventful day in the crypto markets due to the strikes against Iran and the subsequent retaliation. XRP was not immune as it dumped from $1.43 to $1.27 before it rebounded to its starting point after reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed during the attacks.

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Popular crypto analyst CryptoWZRD noted that the asset had closed with a “dragonfly doji candle and respected the $1.30 daily support.” They believe XRP could continue higher only if it manages to close weekly above $1.3820. As of press time, the asset trades inches below that line. However, it has retaken its fourth place in terms of market cap from BNB after a quick flip on Saturday.

XRP Daily Technical Outlook:$XRP closed with a dragonfly doji candle and respected the $1.3000 Daily support. However, anything is possible due to geopolitics. Tomorrow is the Weekly transition. Above the $1.3820 resistance it can push higher if the breakout remains stable 😈 pic.twitter.com/YJaJyp0DTt

— CRYPTOWZRD (@cryptoWZRD_) March 1, 2026

Bitcoin price continues to trade under sustained pressure, struggling to reclaim the $70,000 level. BTC remains capped by a persistent downtrend that has limited upside attempts for weeks.

Historical cycle data and current on-chain signals suggest that bearish conditions may not be over. While short-term rallies occur, structural indicators imply that Bitcoin could remain constrained below $70,000.

Bitcoin’s Past Says Pressure Persists

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator provides important context for Bitcoin’s current phase. This metric uses the 111-day moving average and a two-times multiple of the 350-day moving average. When these averages converge, the market is considered overheated.

Conversely, when the moving averages diverge widely, the asset is often viewed as undervalued. In the present cycle, Bitcoin does not exhibit either extreme. Instead, it appears positioned at the midpoint of a broader bearish phase.

Historically, mid-cycle bearish periods within Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have lasted a year or longer. Similar structures in past cycles kept BTC suppressed before the eventual recovery.

Current divergence between the 111 SMA and the 350 SMA x2 suggests continued bearishness rather than recovery.

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The Spent Output Profit Ratio further reinforces the cautious outlook. SOPR remains below the critical 1 level, signaling that many investors are selling at a loss. Persistent readings under 1 indicate limited profitability across market participants.

This dynamic suppresses recovery attempts. Bitcoin investors selling at a loss often reflect fear-driven behavior. Until SOPR consistently moves above 1, the Bitcoin price may struggle to build sustainable upside momentum.

BTC Price Downtrend Continues

Bitcoin is trading at $66,443 at the time of writing, still confined under a descending resistance line active for nearly a month. Repeated failures to break above this barrier highlight ongoing weakness. Without stronger buying pressure, BTC may remain trapped beneath this trendline.

The Money Flow Index shows active selling pressure. MFI readings indicate capital outflows continue to dominate inflows. Global macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are amplifying risk aversion. This environment encourages cautious positioning and limits aggressive accumulation.

Given these conditions, the Bitcoin price could continue oscillating within a constrained range. A break below $65,000 would likely expose the $62,893 support. That level has already been tested twice this week, increasing vulnerability if selling intensifies.

However, a shift in macro sentiment could alter the trajectory. If Bitcoin holds the $66,224 support and attracts fresh inflows, it may challenge $68,830 resistance.

A decisive move above $70,000 would invalidate the current bearish thesis and signal renewed structural strength.